• PA-Sen, Gov YouGov: Pat Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 51%, Dan Onorato (D) 40%
• UT-Gov, Sen, 02 Mason-Dixon: Gary Herbert (R-inc) 59%, Peter Coroon (D) 32%; Mike Lee (R) 48%, Sam Granato (D) 32%; Jim Matheson (D-inc) 48%, Morgan Philpot (R) 35%
• UT-Gov, Sen, 02 Dan Jones (for Deseret News): Gary Herbert (R-inc) 63%, Peter Coroon (D) 29%; Mike Lee (R) 57%, Sam Granato (D) 30%; Jim Matheson (D-inc) 51%, Morgan Philpot (R) 39%
The boys down at SSP Shipping & Receiving are, frankly, completely overwhelmed with the influx of incoming polling to report. That's why we gotta dish 'em out with no added frills, bulk-style. Our latest dose:
NY-19: Iona College for RNN-TV/Westchester County Association (10/6, voter screen unspecified):
John Hall (D-inc): 42
Nan Hayworth (R): 42
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±3.5%)
NY-25: McLaughlin & Associates for Ann Marie Buerkle (10/4-5, likely voters, 7/10 in parens):
Dan Maffei (D-inc): 39 (46)
Ann Marie Buerkle (R): 40 (39)
Undecided: 21 (17)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Take that last one with a grain of salt, though -- note that directly before the head-to-head top line question, McLaughlin asked if voters would like to send an Obama-supporting Democrat to Congress or a Republican who would provide a "check and balance".
One more poll for the pile with a high-single-digits lead for Barbara Boxer, this time from the very trustworthy PPIC. They also look at the Governor's race (see below) and a few initiatives: they find Prop 19 (pot) passing 52-41 and Prop 25 (simple majority budget) passing 48-35, but also finding Prop 23 (suspending greenhouse gas limits) passing 43-42.
• IN-Sen: We'd speculated that this was a possibility back around the time of the Indiana GOP primary, when Dan Coats (an unusually tepid gun supporter as far as GOPers go) won. The NRA today endorsed his Democratic opponent, Brad Ellsworth, who's pretty much walked the pro-gun line in his red House district. (I know we'd said we'd shut up about NRA endorsements of conservaDems, but this one actually has the potential to move some votes in a key race.)
• PA-Sen: Susquehanna for Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (9/23-26, likely voters, no trendlines):
Joe Sestak (D): 42
Pat Toomey (R): 45
(MoE: ±3.5%)
I wish this had come out in time for our monstrous Pennsylvania wrapup from early this morning, as it's an interesting post-script. Susquehanna (a Republican pollster, but one who've demonstrated that they know what they're doing in Pennsylvania; for instance, they got the PA-12 special pretty close to right) sees it as a surprisingly close race, finding Sestak within 3. Is this the first sign of Sestak closing, or is this just the optimistic edge of the stable mid-single-digits band that the race has usually been pegged at?
• CA-Gov: PPIC (9/19-26, likely voters, 7/6-20 in parentheses):
Jerry Brown (D): 37 (46)
Meg Whitman (R): 38 (40)
Other: 7 (-)
Undecided: 18 (14)
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Unfortunately, this poll closes out the end of a run of remarkable luck for Jerry Brown of polls showing him spiking into the lead (although there's a lot of movement from both candidates to "Other," though I'm not sure who that would be). Importantly, though, the polling period ended before Meg Whitman's illegal housekeeper problem burst into public view. The SEIU is doing its part to keep the issue front and center, pumping $5 million into a Latino outreach effort that's largely field efforts but also includes an ad starting in a few days hitting Whitman on the housekeeper issue. Whitman's also doing her part to keep it in the news, saying she'll employ the scoundrel's last refuge -- a polygraph test -- to prove she was unaware.
• NY-Gov: Marist (9/27-29, likely voters, 9/14-19 in parentheses):
Andrew Cuomo (D): 53 (52)
Carl Paladino (R): 38 (33)
Rick Lazio (C): - (9)
Undecided: 8 (6)
(MoE: ±4%)
Marist strikes back quickly with another poll following up on the news that Rick Lazio is no longer a candidate, preferring to enjoy the great prestige that comes with a trial court judgeship in the Bronx. At any rate, they don't see anything changing other than what you'd expect: most of Lazio's voters from the Conservative line gravitated over to GOP nominee Carl Paladino, with a few, unappetized by the bombastic Paladino, joining the ranks of the undecided.
• OR-Gov: One major explanation for how Chris Dudley has made a major race out of what looked like an easy Dem pickup hold a year ago is... money. (As with so many other races this year...) Dudley has raised $5.6 million all cycle long, as of Tuesday's reporting deadline, more than doubling up on John Kitzhaber's $2.6 million, the largest disparity between the two parties ever seen in an Oregon gubernatorial race. (The SEIU has been running ads on Kitzhaber's behalf, and the DGA has $750K ready to go, but that's still a big deficit.)
• RI-Gov: Fleming & Associates for WPRI-TV (9/22-26, likely voters, no trendlines):
Frank Caprio (D): 33
John Robitaille (R): 19
Lincoln Chafee (I): 30
Undecided: 15
(MoE: ±4.4%)
There's been a general trend in the last month or two toward the Democrat, Frank Caprio, in this race. But the newest poll (apparently the first of this race from Fleming & Associates), on behalf of local TV stations, shows a much closer race, with Caprio up only 3 on his indie opponent, Lincoln Chafee.
• GA-08: American Viewpoint for Austin Scott (9/26-27, likely voters, late July in parentheses):
Jim Marshall (D-inc): 38 (44)
Austin Scott (R): 46 (39)
Undecided: 13 (14)
(MoE: ±5.7%)
Well, there's only one alarming GOP House internal poll today, unlike yesterday's onslaught. (Also, note the hypertrophied margin of error, based on an n of 300.) Still, this is another race that's tended to be on the "Lean D" or at least "Tilt D" side of the equation, and one more juggling ball that the DCCC is going to have to keep in the air.
• ME-01, ME-02: Critical Insights, like last time, included both Maine House districts as part of their poll, so we actually have some trendlines now. In the 1st, Chellie Pingree is expanding her lead over Dean Scontras, 54-26. However, in the 2nd, Mike Michaud's lead over Jason Levesque is a little smaller, down to 44-32 (from 48-28). (In a way, that's reassuring, because that's evidence that Critical Insights didn't just stumble into a much Dem-friendlier batch, and that the flight from Paul LePage seems real.)
• DSCC: The DSCC is having to put some money into Connecticut, a race they probably thought they could avoid spending on when Richard Blumenthal got into the race. They're starting with a smallish $250K, though. Other DSCC outlays today include $720K in CO-Sen, $464K in IL-Sen, $362K in MO-Sen, and $386K in WV-Sen.
• NARAL: NARAL rolled out endorsements of twenty different Dems running in House races, almost all of whom received $5K each. You can click for the full list, but it includes Cedric Richmond, Steve Pougnet, John Hulburd, and Joe Garcia on offense (the rest are defensive picks).
• SSP TV:
• AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski's out with two different ads, one hitting Joe Miller as outsider, the other a PSA-type ad that verrrry slowly and carefully explains to people how to vote for her
• KY-Sen: Here's a powerful new ad from Jack Conway hitting Rand Paul on the drug issue yet again, complete with tombstone and tagline "He doesn't know us" (interestingly, though, the DSCC is following the NRSC's lead here with an ad buy cancellation for the week of the 5th) (UPDATE: Looks like the DS un-cancelled)
• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt hits Robin Carnahan over the stimulus, pointing out that another member of the extended Carnahan clan got money for his wind farm
• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold tries going back to firing up the base, running an ad based on the merits of health care reform
• MI-01: The NRCC weighs in with an ad in the 1st, an endless circle of meta wherein Dan Benishek attacks Gary McDowell for attacking
• WI-07: Julie Lassa goes back to the theme of Sean Duffy having prematurely abandoned his day job as DA to run for the House
• AJS: Americans for Job Security tries again in VA-09 (remember that's where their previous ad got bounced for being too egregious), as well as in CO-03 and NY-24
• Rasmussen:
• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 43%, Ken Buck (R) 51%
• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 41%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%
• IA-Sen: Roxanne Conlin (D) 37%, Charles Grassley (R-inc) 55%
• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 38%, Rand Paul (R) 49%
• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 47%, Charlie Baker (R) 42%, Tim Cahill (I) 6%
• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 40%, Brian Sandoval (R) 53%
• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 48%, Sharron Angle (R) 47%
• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 42%, John Kasich (R) 50%
• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 47%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%
• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 42%, Ron Johnson 54%
Swing State Project is rolling out another round of updates to our House, Senate and Gubernatorial race ratings charts. This may seem like an alarming large number to do all at once, especially since almost all the changes are favorable to Republicans, but that's not in response to any particular event or series of events. Mostly, we're just playing catchup after having been a little slow in performing a global update since late July, and obviously the general environment deteriorated over August for Dems (although we might have seen a slight uptick in their fortunes, at least in terms of generic ballot tests and mindless Beltway CW, in the last week).
AZ-Sen: Races to Watch to Safe R
CT-Sen: Likely D to Lean D
IN-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
MO-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
OH-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
PA-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
AZ-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
CO-Gov: Lean D to Likely D
CT-Gov: Tossup to Lean D
IL-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
ME-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
NH-Gov: Safe D to Likely D
NM-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
NV-Gov: Lean R to Likely R
WI-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
AR-02: Lean R to Likely R
AZ-01: Lean D to Tossup
AZ-05: Lean D to Tossup
CA-47: Likely D to Lean D
CO-03: Likely D to Tossup
CO-07: Likely D to Lean D
CT-05: Likely D to Lean D
FL-02: Lean D to Tossup
IA-01: Safe D to Likely D
IL-11: Lean D to Tossup
IL-14: Lean D to Tossup
IL-17: Likely D to Lean D
KY-03: Likely D to Lean D
LA-02: Likely D to Lean D
ME-01: Safe D to Likely D
ME-02: Safe D to Likely D
MI-07: Lean D to Tossup
MI-09: Likely D to Lean D
NY-29: Lean R to Likely R
OR-05: Likely D to Lean D
PA-03: Lean D to Tossup
PA-07: Tossup to Lean R
PA-08: Lean D to Tossup
SC-05: Lean D to Tossup
WA-02: Likely D to Tossup
WA-03: Tossup to Lean R
39 of these changes favor Republicans; 2 races have moved in the Democratic direction.
Critical Insights for Maine News Today (9/13, likely voters, no trendlines):
Libby Mitchell (D): 25
Paul LePage (R): 38
Eliot Cutler (I): 11
Shawn Moody (I): 4
Kevin Scott (I): 1
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4%)
More stink lines for Democrats from this open seat race. The only other polls we've seen, from PPP and Rasmussen, have also showed the tea-flavored LePage with a clear edge, though none of these polls were taken in time to measure the impact of the news that LePage's wife is under investigation for receiving homestead tax exemptions for her properties in both Maine and Florida. (LePage also had a profanity-laced freakout in front of news cameras after being questioned on the issue.)
At the very least, the House numbers offer a brighter outlook for incumbent Dems Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud.
Mike Michaud (D-inc): 48
Jason Levesque (R): 28
Undecided: 24
(MoE: ±5.8%)
PPP, who polled these races a couple of weeks ago (partially over Labor Day weekend), found Pingree up by only 47-38, and Michaud up by a more alarming 45-38.
Some have cited Maine's first district as a potential upset this fall, pointing to Pingree's underwhelming 10-point win in 2008 (a spread that Obama doubled against McCain). It looks like Pingree is still underperforming against the not terribly well-funded businessman Dean Scontras (who tried but failed to win the GOP nomination in '08). However, it's looking like the 2nd District race may end up to be quite a bit closer:
Mike Michaud (D-inc): 45
Jason Levesque (R): 38
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±3.8%)
Levesque has raised a bit of money that has enabled him to actually go on the air, and we recently flagged this race as one worth keeping a wary eye on. The numbers suggest that Levesque is the candidate with more room to grow:
This race is probably going to tighten up because 21% of Republicans are undecided while only 10% of Democrats are. Michaud has his party base pretty much locked up at 81% while Levesque's getting only 65% of his party as many remain undecided. Michaud is also leading 43-34 with independents despite the fact that they disapprove of him by a 34/46 margin.
Both of these are interesting races. Neither incumbent has locked up their re-election, but their GOP opponents will probably need some help in overtaking them. The NRCC may have more opportunities this fall than they can afford.
11:24PM: It's over. The AP calls it for Pingree. 11:05PM: Pingree is starting to pull away: 45-26. 10:41PM: 46% in and Pingree is still dominating the field, expanding her lead to 43-26 over Cote. 9:35PM: 15% of precincts are reporting, and Pingree is holding steady at 40-30 over Cote.
Polls have just closed in Maine, and we'll be using this thread to follow the returns for the Democratic nomination to succeed Rep. Tom Allen.
Another month, another round of elections. Once again, the Swing State Project brings you the month in races worth watching:
June 3: This is going to be a big day.
AL-02: With Rep. Terry Everett (R) retiring at the end this term, the GOP field is large and noisy to replace him. The players include: State Rep. Jay Love, state Rep. David Grimes, oral surgeon Craig Schmidtke, TV station executive David Woods, and state Sen. Harri Anne Smith. With such a crowded and well-funded field, a 7/15 runoff is all but inevitable. Watch for Smith and one of Love or Woods to advance to the next round.
I'm hoping that Smith is the GOP victor here, if for no other reason than the fact that she's dumber than a sack of hammers.
On the Democratic side, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright will face off with Alabama NOW President Cheryl Sabel and dentist Cendie Crawley. Bright's campaign has been slow to get started, whereas Sabel has won a number of endorsements. Still, Bright should probably be okay based on name recognition.
AL-05: Another open seat here, this one left behind by retiring Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer. State Sen. Parker Griffith of Huntsville is the Democratic front-runner and won't have any problems in his primary.
Republicans will decide between insurance executive and '94/'96 candidate Wayne Parker, businesswoman Cheryl Baswell Guthrie, former state Rep. Angelo Mancuso (a turncoat Democrat), '06 candidate Ray McKee, and a number of also-rans. Parker is thought to be the favorite, but Guthrie has invested a significant amount of her own resources on the race.
CA-04: This one should be interesting. With John Doolittle being put out to pasture, Republicans will choose between conservative icon Tom McClintock, a state Senator from southern California, and former Rep. Doug Ose. This has been a bloody and expensive primary, but the winner will still have a big advantage over Democrat Charlie Brown in this R+10.9 district.
IA-03: Democrats will go to the polls to decide the fate of longtime Rep. Leonard Boswell, who is receiving a primary challenge from former state Rep. Ed Fallon. In a low-turnout affair, anything could happen, but keep in mind that the lone public poll of this race -- from Research 2000 in late April -- showed Boswell ahead by a wide margin.
NJ-Sen: A big event. Not content to "wait his turn", Rep. Rob Andrews is waging a rough primary challenge against Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D). A recent Rasmussen poll gave Lautenberg a 30-point lead here.
Republicans will choose between ex-Rep. Dick Zimmer, crypto-fascist state Sen. Joseph Pennacchio, and college professor Murray Sabrin, a Ron Paul acolyte.
NJ-03: Republicans were initially very high on Chris Myers, a Lockheed Martin VP, to replace retiring GOP Rep. Jim Saxton in this South Jersey distrct. However, Myers' primary against Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly has descended into a squabbling mess, and neither candidate has been able to match the fundraising juggernaut of the Democratic candidate, state Sen. John Adler. I'm rooting for Kelly to win here, but I like Adler's chances against either Republican.
NJ-07: The GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Mike Ferguson appears to be up in the air between state Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance and Kate Whitman, the daughter of former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman. It's unclear to me which candidate would be stronger in the general election. Ex-Summit Councilwoman Kelly Hatfield and Scotch Plains Mayor Marty Marks will also have their names on the ballot.
State Assemblywoman Linda Stender will be carrying the Democratic banner once again in this tossup district.
NM-Sen: This open seat race has caused a domino effect all over New Mexico politics, with all three of the state's House members throwing their hats in the ring.
Republicans will decide between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. Because of Pearce's more conservative profile, he would probably be the easier candidate for Democrat Tom Udall to beat in November. Still, the most recent polls show Udall crushing either Republican, so the outcome of the GOP primary may not matter a whole lot for Tom Udall's chances this November.
NM-01: With Heather Wilson out of the picture, Democrats are hopeful that they can finally put this D+2.4 district in the bag. The choices: Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich, former state Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham and former New Mexico Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron. A a recent poll gave Heinrich a slight lead over Vigil-Giron, but Lujan Grisham has raised and spent a respectable amount.
Republicans will choose between Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and state Sen. Joseph Carraro. White, a rare strong recruit by the mostly hapless NRCC, is the overwhelming favorite for his party's nomination.
NM-02: I'll be relieved when the roster of players vying for Steve Pearce's open seat is cut to two. On the Democratic side of the playing field, voters in this district will choose between Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague. McCamley is an impressive orator and campaigner, but Teague, a wealthy oil man, has drawn on his personal wealth to give his campaign a big financial edge here. The buzz I've heard is that Teague is well-placed to win the nomination, a fact that seems to be confirmed by Bill Richardson's recent endorsement of Teague.
For what it's worth, Roll Call quoted an anonymous New Mexico GOP strategist who believes that a Teague victory in this R+5.7 seat is "likely" in November -- as long as he makes it out of the primary. I take such things with a heavy grain of salt, though.
The Republicans have a football team-sized field here, including Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman, restaurateur and '02 candidate Ed Tinsley, retired banker Aubrey Dunn Jr. (a former Democrat), local GOP Chairman C. Earl Greer, and businessman Greg Sowards. Tinsley was regarded as the early front-runner, but the National Association of Realtors PAC has dumped around $1 million in support of Newman, and Dunn has also spent over half a million of his own money on the race. With no public polling, the outcome of this one could be anyone's guess.
NM-03: The race to replace Tom Udall in the House is a two-way affair between Public Regulation Commissioner Ben Ray Luján and wealthy home developer Don Wiviott. Wiviott (and other third-string candidates) have been going hard negative on Luján, who appears to have the edge here. Indeed, a recent poll showed Luján with a six-point lead over Wiviott, and Richardson gave him his stamp of approval earlier this week.
I don't know or care who the sacrificial GOP lamb is in this D+5.5 district.
June 10:
ME-01: With Tom Allen hoping to graduate to the Senate, a posse of Dems are vying to replace him, including: Former Common Cause President Chellie Pingree, York County District Attorney Mark Lawrence, former state Senate Majority Leader Michael Brennan, Iraq War vet Adam Cote, and state Sen. Ethan Strimling. Who is the strongest pick here? It beats me. Cote seems to be the most conservative choice, and could sneak in if progressive votes are divided.
Republicans will pick between former state Sen. Charlie Summers and businessman Dean Scontras, but the Democratic nominee will be heavily favored in the general election in this D+6.2 district.
SC-02: This is a bit of an oddball race. At a PVI of R+8.9, it's certainly not on many prognosticators' radar screens. However, Democrat Rob Miller, an Iraq vet who entered this race in March, has raised $200K and loaned himself another $100K, according to the latest FEC filings. That's an extremely respectable amount for a Democrat in a red district like this one.
Miller will face off against retired Air Force officer Blaine Lotz.
VA-11: A big one. With Tom Davis out of the picture, Democrats are finally making a play for this Dem-trending district. But first, the primary: Fairfax County Chairman Gerry Connolly vs. ex-Rep./ex-state Sen./'05 Lt. Gov. candidate Leslie Byrne. Depending on who you talk to, this race is either neck-and-neck or will go decisively to Connolly.
The winner will take on Republican Keith Fimian, a political neophyte, but an impressive fundraiser.
June 17:
MD-04: Grab your popcorn, it's time for another edge of your seat special election! Oh wait; Donna Edwards is going to win by 50 points.
June 24:
UT-03: A recent poll shows GOP Rep. Chris Cannon leading former gubernatorial aide Jason Chaffetz by only two points. Cannon has had his share of close calls in the past, but it's unclear whether we'll actually get to do the wingnut shuffle in Utah this year.
