Linda Stender (D): 35
Leonard Lance (R): 42
(MoE: ±5.6%)
This is an internal poll by a GOP pollster, the kind that only gets released if it has ridiculously showy results for the candidate who commissioned it, so take it with the requisite bucket of salt. But I haven't seen any polling of the open seat in NJ-07 before (or any hot northeast House races, come to think of it), so I thought I'd put it out there.
The poll shows both candidates little-known, with state senator Lance with a 20% favorable and 11% unfavorable rating, and Stender in a puzzling pickle, with unfavorables (29%) greater than her favorables (20%). Stender has a huge edge in cash on hand, though (more than $1 million), so possibly look for an ad blitz to try and 'fix' that soon.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
Rep. Mike Ferguson will announce today that he will not seek re-election to a fifth term in 2008. The 37-year-old Republican, who won re-election last year by just 1% against Democratic Assemblywoman Linda Stender, wants to spend more time with his four young children.
Senate Minority Leader-designate Thomas Kean, Jr. becomes one of the most likely GOP candidates for the seat. Kean, the Republican U.S. Senate in 2006, was among the candidates who ran against Ferguson in the 7th district Republican primary in 2000, when Bob Franks gave up the seat to run for the Senate.
This seat just vaulted up a dozen or so places on the list of pick-up opportunities for Democrats.
(For those keeping score, this makes 17 GOP House retirements this year. Wowza!)
Update (Trent): While this is a seat Kerry and Gore narrowly lost (with 47% and 48%, respectively), a PVI of R+0.6 suggests Stender should be able to easily improve on last year's performance without an incumbent in the race.
