• Redistricting: Just a reminder to anyone who wants to reach for the golden babka -- the last day to submit entries in SSP's redistricting contest is January 10th.
• MA-Sen: Sean Trende at RCP has an interesting "what-if" analysis, trying to game out what the Massachusetts senate election results would look like if turnout and voting patterns shifted there in the same way they did in the 2009 VA and NJ gubernatorial races. A lot of caveats, of course, but the bottom line number is interesting - if ultimately implausible. (D) Republican Scott Brown, meanwhile, has raised $600K in December for his bid. (Update: Martha Coakley raised $1 million between November 20th and December 31st, according to a press release from her campaign.)
• MD-Gov: In a fundraising letter, Dem Gov. Martin O'Malley raises the specter of a comeback attempt by the man he defeat in 2006, ex-Gov. Robert Ehrlich. Of course, we don't know if O'Malley actually thinks Ehrlich will run, or if he's just using the possibility as a way to scare up some scrilla. (D)
• AL-07: Former Selma Mayor James Perkins has dropped out of the Democratic primary for Artur Davis' seat, citing health reasons for his decision. That leaves the primary as a three-way contest between state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr., attorney and ArturD2 protege Terri Sewell and Jefferson County Commissioner Sheila Smoot.
• TX-10: Attorney and one-time TV judge Larry Joe Doherty, the 2008 Dem nominee for this seat, declined to run a second time. In an email to supporters, he said he felt it would be wrong to ask his friends to donate to him, since a victory here could be "snatched away in redistricting," depending upon the outcome of the governor's race. (D)
• MN-State Sen: SSPer MinnesotaMike gives us a rundown on the candidates who are lining up for the special election to replace retiring GOP Sen. Dick Day (of "Dick Day Afternoon" fame).
• NY-State Sen: The New York Daily News says that a Senate report is likely to recommend expulsion for Democratic state Sen. Hiram Monserrate.
• Maps: This cool site has maps showing the presidential vote by county for every election dating back to 1836. Go get your Van Buren on.
• Fundraising: Today's the last day of the quarter to donate to your favorite House or Senate candidates. If you're thinking about donating to someone, now would be a good time to do it.
Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), who won a third term in November in a race that was closer than many Republicans would have liked, is expected to create an exploratory committee for a possible run for state attorney general in 2010, two Texas media outlets reported Thursday evening.
The current attorney general, Greg Abbott (R), is contemplating running for lieutenant governor next year - or for Senate if Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) resigns early to pursue a gubernatorial bid.
This might be the most exciting House open seat news so far this cycle. McCaul won with just 54% of the vote in November, and 55% two years earlier. This district always looked more competitive than its (old) PVI of R+13, in large part due to an ongoing demographic sea change - in particular, Hispanic growth here has been through the roof.
I'd also be willing to bet that Bush's numbers were inflated here due to a home state effect - and that Obama did better than Kerry's 38%. The real question is whether there is something "wrong" with McCaul that's kept his numbers down - and, consequently, would we be better off running against him or with an open seat? I'll note that the DCCC didn't spend a dime on this district, but first-time candidate Larry Joe Doherty did raise an impressive $1.2 million in his losing bid.
If McCaul bails, Doherty could conceivably run again, as could international affairs consultant Dan Grant, who ran in the primary against Doherty in 2008. My question to you: Are there any other strong candidate who might be tempted to run if there's an open seat?
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):
Larry Joe Doherty (D): 42
Mike McCaul (R): 46
(MoE: ±5%)
Texas is a long-term project for the Democrats, and districts like TX-10 are leading the way: it's one of the fastest-growing districts in the country, and most of the growth is non-white. If this poll is any indication, though, we might be on the verge of seeing some good results right away.
Mike McCaul was already publicly sweating the early voting patterns in Harris and Travis Counties (this R+13 district stretches wormlike across hundreds of miles to link Houston and Austin suburbs). This poll can't be helping him feel any better, as it's slightly better than recent Doherty internals. Between McCaul never having faced a full-on challenge before, Doherty's money and name recognition (he's a former TV judge), changes in the district, and the size of the Dem wave (McCain leads only 48-41 in the district, down from Bush's 62-38 edge), here's one more upset waiting to happen.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
It was a good night for the incumbents and favorites in Texas and Ohio.
In Texas, incumbent Democrat Silvestre Reyees (86%) and incumbent Republicans Sam Johnson (87%), Ralph Hall (74%), and Ron Paul (70%)all won easily. So did Democrats Tom Daley (72%), Dwight Fullingim (62%), and TV Judge Larry Doherty (61%). Republican Lyle Larson dispatched the wonderfully named Quico Canseco 62%-38% in TX-23 and William Willie Vaden won in TX-27 with 56%. Glenn Melancon, who visits on the blogs, took the Democratic nod in TX-4, 57% to 43% over VaLinda Hathcox. In the night's closest race, Ludwig Otto appeared to edge Steve Bush in TX-6 50.6% to 49.4% with 2% of the votes still outstanding.
In two races, no one got 50%. Is that a run-off? The primary schedule for Texas does list run offs. That would be in TX-22 where Shelley Sekula Gibbs led with 30% to 21% for Pete Olson for the right to oppose Democrat Nick Lampson in Tom DeLay's former district. Democrat Eric Roberson led with 45% to 33% for Steve Love in TX-32.
