Don Cazayoux (D-inc): 46
Bill Cassidy (R): 29
Michael Jackson (I): 9
(MoE: ±4.9%)
That spread is very similar to a recent Anzalone Liszt internal for Cazayoux showing a 48-32-9 race. While I'm still not comfortable seeing turncoat Dem Michael Jackson getting nearly one-tenth of the vote, that number could come down a notch in November (as it often happens with third-party challengers), and the DCCC already has boots on the ground with a well-organized field campaign here.
It seems that for all the hype, we haven't seen any evidence that Cassidy is really catching on so far.
We wrote earlier about the NRCC canceling ad buys in NV-03 and NM-01, but a knowledgeable friend of SSP writes in with a few more details on the NRCC's retreat:
FL-16 - NRCC - TV - cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in West Palm and Ft. Myers
ID-01 - NRCC - TV - Spokane - cancels weeks of 10/7 and 10/14
KS-02 - NRCC - TV - Cancelled flight 10/21-10/27 in all markets
LA-06 - NRCC-TV- Cancelled flight 10/21-10/27 in Baton Rouge
MN-03 - NRCC- TV - cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in Minneapolis
NV-03 - NRCC - TV - broadcast and cable flights 10/14-10/20 cancelled
TX-22 - NRCC - TV - Cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in Houston.
Can YOU raise more money than Dick Cheney? Can you help stand up for Don Cazayoux? Don stood with us on the bailout, voting NAY both times the House voted, on MondayandFriday.
Can YOU raise more money than Dick Cheney? Can you stand up for Don, who voted to increase our investment in alternative energy sources? Can you stand up for a Congressman that gets it, rather than one who believes that running against earmarks will save the economy?
Because Hurricane Gustav pushed back Louisiana's primaries from September to this Saturday (be sure to check SSP for all your liveblogging needs), House candidates had to file yet another pre-primary fundraising report with the FEC, this one covering the period from August 18th through September 14th. (For reference, the 7/1-8/17 pre-primary reports are available here.) Here are all the pertinent numbers:
All numbers, of course, are in thousands.
The King of Pop and Republican pretender Bill Cassidy have yet to file in LA-06, but we'll update this post accordingly when they do.
Check out the mad money that Jim Harlan is spending in the deep-red LA-01. He's spent $790K to date.
The DCCC has filed nearly $1.6 million in media buys in support of House Democratic candidates tonight. Here's the damage:
District
Incumbent
Group
Media Buy
IL-10
Kirk
DCCC
$41,066
LA-06
Cazayoux
DCCC
$93,462
NC-08
Hayes
DCCC
$112,423
NH-01
Shea-Porter
DCCC
$31,815
NJ-03
Open
DCCC
$56,680
NJ-07
Open
DCCC
$116,541
NM-01
Open
DCCC
$124,981
NM-02
Open
DCCC
$70,729
NV-03
Porter
DCCC
$142,214
NY-26
Open
DCCC
$59,110
OH-01
Chabot
DCCC
$137,099
OH-15
Open
DCCC
$162,989
OH-16
Open
DCCC
$156,724
PA-03
English
DCCC
$91,665
PA-10
Carney
DCCC
$130,704
WI-08
Kagen
DCCC
$55,336
Total:
$1,583,541
This is on top of $1.4 million in media buys filed in 15 other districts yesterday. Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has spent money on TV ads in LA-06, NJ-03, NM-02, NV-03, and WI-08.
Earlier in the day, we dug into the finances of state Rep. Michael Jackson, a Democrat-turned-Independent who is running against newly-minted Democratic Rep. Don Cazayoux in Louisiana. We reported that Jackson received a surprising $500 contribution from North Carolina Democratic Rep. G.K. Butterfield, and asked the pertinent question: "what gives?"
After Jackson announced his Independent candidacy, Butterfield donated $500 to his campaign on July 26, after meeting the Louisiana legislator at a Congressional Black Caucus event. The contribution appeared on pre-primary Federal Election Commission reports filed nearly a month ago but went unnoticed until Swing State Project, a Democratic blog, pointed it out Wednesday morning.
"It was a mistake," said Butterfield's communications director, Ken Willis. "[Jackson] was just introduced at the CBC event as a Congressional candidate." Apparently, Butterfield did not realize that his contribution was for the general election and that Jackson was running as an Independent against a Democratic incumbent.
"If [Butterfield] had known it would be for the general election, he wouldn't have done it," Willis added. "He didn't want to do anything to hurt the party."
Why Jackson was allowed into a CBC event two weeks after he filed as an Independent is beyond me, but it appears that Mr. Butterfield made an honest mistake -- and I think that we can take him for his word on this one. If I were him, though, I'd respectfully ask for my money back.
No, not the King of Pop. I'm talking about state Rep. Michael Jackson ("D"), who's running as an Independent with an official campaign strategy of taking as many African-American votes away from Democratic Rep. Don Cazayoux as possible. Jackson insists that such a strategy will allow him to sneak up the middle and win in November, but at only 9% in the polls, such a scenario is beyond dubious.
As of August 17th, Jackson only had $12,600 on-hand. That's peanuts. But it's still worth asking: who's giving him the peanuts?
Well, a significant share ($6,900) came from developer Lane Grigsby, a man who spent tens of thousands of dollars on his own attack ads and mailers against Cazayoux in May, and from two of his relatives. Grigsby's motive for bankrolling Jackson is pretty sickeningly transparent -- he doesn't want Jackson to win; he just wants to satisfy his desire to see Cazayoux lose.
That sort of thing is messed up, but it's not as messed up as this contribution that Jackson collected on July 26th. Yes, you read that correctly: Democratic Congressman G.K. Butterfield (NC-01) sent Jackson a $500 check from his campaign committee two weeks after he entered the race as an independent. Let me repeat this: G.K. Butterfield, a Democrat in the House of Representatives, donated $500 to help defeat Don Cazayoux, a fellow Democrat.
Pardon me for saying so, but that's pretty fucked up.
The DCCC filed $1.37 million worth in media buys in support of Democratic House candidates tonight. Here's the damage:
District
Incumbent
Group
Media Buy
AL-02
Open
DCCC
$91,520
AL-05
Open
DCCC
$60,700
AZ-01
Open
DCCC
$183,679
AZ-05
Mitchell
DCCC
$168,245
AZ-08
Giffords
DCCC
$58,462
CT-04
Shays
DCCC
$119,130
FL-16
Mahoney
DCCC
$91,081
IL-11
Open
DCCC
$40,953
KY-02
Open
DCCC
$88,977
LA-06
Cazayoux
OPHTHPAC
$49,163
MD-01
Open
DCCC
$145,851
MI-07
Walberg
DCCC
$63,040
MI-09
Knollenberg
DCCC
$47,392
MN-03
Open
DCCC
$131,894
VA-11
Open
DCCC
$80,915
Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has aired ads in AZ-08, FL-16, KY-02, MD-01, and VA-11.
The lone GOP-friendly media buy comes from the bastards at the American Academy of Ophthalmology, which is dropping cash in support of Republican Bill Cassidy (himself an MD) in his race against Don Cazayoux. See you in hell, eye doctors!
But don't get the impression that this is one-sided affair just because the NRCC is holding its musket fire. Freedom's Crotch is up with some ad buys of its own smearing Democrats:
AL-02: $150,000
IL-11: $430,000
NJ-03: $74,000
NJ-07: $500,000
The Crotch is also spending an unspecified amount on NM-01 and NV-03. Ugh.
So much for Bill Cassidy being a "major upgrade" over Woody Jenkins for Louisiana Republicans. The DCCC is out with a hard-hitting new attack ad nailing Cassidy for his steadfast support of Social Security privatization (the bad kind of "SSP"):
In 2008, this kind of thing is just utterly toxic.
Anzalone Liszt for Don Cazayoux (9/17-21, likely voters, July in parens):
Don Cazayoux (D-inc): 48 (43)
Bill Cassidy (R): 32 (36)
Michael Jackson (I): 9 (13)
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Those are some nice starting numbers for Cazayoux. Hopefully he can minimize Jackson's impact, but it looks like he's beginning the campaign with some breathing room.
We'll post the full polling memo when we get it -- which should be very soon. Oh, and while we're at it, here's Don Cazayoux's latest ad.
UPDATE: Full polling memo below the fold, and it contains some more good news. Constituents are giving Cazayoux solid ratings for his work during Hurricane Gustav and its aftermath.
