Below the fold is the e-mail I received from the Harlan campaign celebrating their primary victory in LA-01.
It seems that not only did he beat out Gilda Reed's vote total from the special election, as we noted in the LA primaries open thread, but he even beat Steve Scalise's. Of course, he's most likely gonna need more than 37878 votes to win against Scalise, but that's progress at least--quite enough for the DCCC to have put him on its list of Emerging Races.
Not to mention that he has a nifty nickname for his opponent already, "The Mistake by the Lake".
Because Hurricane Gustav pushed back Louisiana's primaries from September to this Saturday (be sure to check SSP for all your liveblogging needs), House candidates had to file yet another pre-primary fundraising report with the FEC, this one covering the period from August 18th through September 14th. (For reference, the 7/1-8/17 pre-primary reports are available here.) Here are all the pertinent numbers:
All numbers, of course, are in thousands.
The King of Pop and Republican pretender Bill Cassidy have yet to file in LA-06, but we'll update this post accordingly when they do.
Check out the mad money that Jim Harlan is spending in the deep-red LA-01. He's spent $790K to date.
The Kitchens Group for Jim Harlan (9/18-21, likely voters, June in parens):
Jim Harlan (D): 31 (15)
Steve Scalise (R-inc): 42 (68)
Undecided: 26 (17)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
In the diaries, Sean Fitzpatrick alerted us to this poll, and we've dug up the numbers for all to see.
If there was ever a district in Louisiana that screams "off limits" to Democrats, it's this one. Its voters defeated John Kerry by 43 points in 2004, and even the Goreacle was stomped here by 36 points four years earlier. A heavily white New Orleans-area district, Democrat Gilda Reed only scored 22.5% of the vote here in the special election to replace Bobby Jinal this May.
But Democrat Jim Harlan, a successful businessman and former D.C. policy whiz in his own right, is giving this one a go, and he's bringing his own considerable personal resources to bear.
Knocking off Scalise may seem hopeless, but if he can pin the man down and drain some of the GOP's resources, he'll at least make the lives of Don Cazayoux, Paul Carmouche, and Don Cravins, Jr. easier.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
After Steve Scalise won the special election this spring with over 75% of the vote, most Democrats wrote off this election for November. That is, until Jim Harlan stepped up to the plate. With a large personal fortune to invest, Harlan has been running one of the DCCC's "Emerging Races" and one of SSP's "Races to Watch."
Things just got a whole lot more interesting. Via e-mail:
Jim asked us to send you some secret campaign information asap, before it hits the papers. I think you will be pleased.
Jim has moved to within 11 points of Steve Scalise after starting from 53 points behind. Now, Scalise is 8 points below 50% - a devastating position for any incumbent but a particularly big problem for Scalise who has only been in office since the Spring of 2008 and only won with 33,000 total votes.
Some quick arithmetic points to a 42-31 race. That's certainly winnable, especially as Harlan hits Scalise hard on hurricane relief:
September 6th is primary day in Louisiana, and midnight was the deadline for congressional candidates to file their pre-primary fundraising reports with the FEC. Once again, SSP rounds up the numbers, covering the period of 7/1 through 8/17:
As usual, all figures are in thousands. No reports have been filed yet for William Jefferson or Cedric Richmond, but we'll update the chart once they've filed.
An impressive period for Democrat Don Cravins, who managed to outraise Boustany. Jim Harlan continues to amaze with his self-funded campaign in the R+19 LA-01, and Carmouche continues to lead the field in the fightin' 4th.
Cazayoux has some work to do in order to replenish his war chest, but at the same time, he's spending money at a fast clip in order to stay on the airwaves.
As of 11 PM CST on July 14th, not one Republican candidate for the House in Louisiana has filed their July quarterly. Five of the 18 Democrats running have filed their reports. Without further adieu, here are those five fundraising reports:
LA-01
Jim Harlan has filed his report. Vinnie Mendoza, a perpetual candidate, has not.
No, the debts is not a mis-print. Mr. Harlan donated his campaign $525,000. For the first time in recent memory, money will not be a reason for the Democratic candidate in LA-01 to lose. It will be because the campaign didn't do a good job. I doubt that will be the case, as the campaign manager for Mr. Harlan is the same campaign manager that helped Travis Childers
LA-02
There are 8 Democrats running in the primary, including incumbent Congressman Bill Jefferson. Only 2 of the 8 have filed their FEC reports so far. They are:
Mr. Troy Carter is not a serious candidate. The debt is partly from his failed run back in 2006, where he placed fourth in the jungle primary behind the Republican. I've corrected the amount raised this quarter from his FEC report. If you click on his name, it'll bring you to his July Quarterly FEC report, where he reports NO money raised this quarter. But if you take a look at his April Quarterly report, you'll see that he only reported some $2,188 raised in the election cycle to date column, and nothing again in the this cycle to date column. Mr. Carter, please find someone to teach your staff how to fill out the reports properly!
The debt is money that Mr. Richmond gave his campaign. For a first-time candidate for the U.S. House, the first quarter fundraising for Mr. Richmond is impressive. Almost $200,000 in the bank. Right now, he has to be one of the favorites to oust Congressman Jefferson.
Since Charlie won re-election by acclamation, as no Republican bothered to file to run against him, he is a prime candidate for the netroots' Use It or Lose It Campaign. He can easily afford to give 30% of his cash on hand to the DCCC so they can pump even more money into LA-01, LA-04, LA-06 and LA-07 to help us elect the Democratic candidates in those districts.
LA-04
There are 4 Democrats running for the nomination in this district - Willie Banks, Paul Carmouche, Artis "Doc" Cash and John Milkovich. Thus far, only Mr. Banks has filed his July Quarterly FEC report.
The debt is money that Mr. Banks loaned his campaign. He's having a hard time raising cash, presumably because he's running against a VERY well-known Democrat in that district, the Caddo Parish District Attorney, Paul Carmouche, who has served in that capacity for I believe 30 years.
"Pro-life, pro-gun, fiscally conservative" Democrat Jim Harlan announced his candidacy for Congress on YouTube on Independence Day, bringing a self-funding challenger to recently elected Republican Rep. Steve Scalise this fall.
Harlan, who was a registered independent until February, attended the Democratic Convention earlier this year for the district's special election in March and decided to get involved.
"He didn't think [Scalise] would do a good job in Congress, and decided he might as well do it by himself," campaign manager Joel Coon said. "The more he saw of the [campaign] process, the more he thought about it."
Harlan, a moneyed businessman, is bringing an eyebrow-raising amount of his own resources to the race:
Harlan made his money, according to Coon, building up factories across the country and internationally for a wide variety of technologies and businesses. He will report more than $500,000 to the Federal Elections Commission later this month, which is more than what incumbent Scalise reported in the first quarter.
The $500,000 is mostly Harlan's personal wealth, Coon said, "but he hasn't begun to raise the money he can."
Louisiana's 1st CD is one of the most Republican districts in the nation. With a PVI of R+18.5, it supported Bush by a 71-28 margin in 2004 and Scalise crushed Democrat Gilda Reed by 75-22.5 in the May 3rd special election to fill the open seat. While it goes without saying that Harlan would be an extreme long shot, his candidacy will at least keep Scalise's money in the 1st District and out of the NRCC's coffers.
This is pretty remarkable. Despite many prognosticators writing the obituary for the Louisiana Democratic Party after Hurricane Katrina wrought major damage on New Orleans in 2005, Democrats now have three of state's seven House seats, a top-tier challenger in the 4th District, a potentially serious challenge in the 7th District, and still might score a good challenger in the 5th District. With Jim Harlan running against Scalise, Democrats are making a fight of it in every corner of Louisiana this year.
I live in Kentucky's First Congressional District. This year, we have a great Democratic Lady running for our Congressional seat, Heather Ryan. Well, we are not the only first district in the south that has an awesome Democratic lady running for their Congressional seat. In the First Congressional District of Louisiana another stellar Democratic woman is running to expand our Congressional majorities. Her name is Gilda Reed.
2:44PM Sun: DCal looks at the numbers and finds that the Dems have held the state House, too. 12:35AM (final update): TXObserver brings us some key state House results. Looks like the Republicans picked up a few seats and forced run-offs in other Dem-held districts. Democrats had a 17-seat edge in the state House going into the election. We'll have to wait a few weeks to see what the complete carnage is. 11:59PM: The lack of a Democratic candidate with a strong appeal in Orleans Parish really helped lift Jindal over the 50% mark. Check this out: while Mitch Landrieu cleaned up with 90% of the vote here, Democrats Boasso and Campbell combined for a pathetic 28% of the parish's vote, with 382 of 442 precincts reporting. That's way behind Republican-turned-Indie John Georges' total of 38%, and even behind Jindal's 33%. Talk about a wipeout. 11:51PM: So here's why I think that Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne (R) didn't deserve to win re-election tonight: his website sucks. 11:36PM: TXObserver brings us some state Senate races to watch in the comments. It looks like Mitch Landrieu will win comfortably--he's holding his closest challenger to a 56-32 margin with 82% of the vote in. 11:30PM: KTBS has Jindal at 47% with 3,413 precincts reporting, but he's expected to rack up some big points in his home turf in the NOLA suburbs (he scored 88% of the vote in his re-election bid there last year against two hapless Democrats). (Update: there seems to be some bad math here, anyway.) 11:23PM: WWLTV's calling the race for Jindal. 11:14PM: With 3,032 of 3,967 precincts reporting, Jindal is sitting tight with 53%. 11:08PM: Highlights from some of the other statewide races -- Mitch Landrieu has 54% of the vote in bid for re-election as Lt. Governor with 2372 precincts reporting. Democrat James Caldwell and incumbent Attorney General Charles Foti (D) are both slightly edging Republican challenger Royal Alexander. Looks like a Caldwell-Foti run-off could be in the cards. 10:40PM: 2.641 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 18% 10:33PM: 2,636 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 56%, Boasso 18%, Georges 14%, Campbell 10% (according to WWLTV). 10:22PM: 1,388 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 52%; Boasso, 18%. Landrieu holding at 51%. 10:20PM: 1096 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 18% 10:14PM: From WWLTV New Orleans: "Election analyst Greg Rigamer says things are looking very good for Jindal to get over 50% and win outright." 10:03PM: 787 of 3,967 precincts reporting: 52% Jindal, 19% Boasso. 9:56PM: 470 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 19%. Landrieu at 51%. 9:47PM: 298 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 54%, Boasso 18%. Landrieu at 50%. 9:27PM: 11 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 60%, Boasso & Campbell at 14% each. Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu at 46% in the absentee ballot count so far. 9:21PM: What a surprise: some New Orleans voters get screwed at the polls. 9:06PM: 1 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 63%, Boasso 15%.
It's election day in Louisiana, as voters go to the polls to choose between Bobby Jindal (R), Walter Boasso (D), Foster Campbell (D), John Georges (I), and a slew of also-rans in the race to replace outgoing Gov. Kathleen Blanco. Polls close at 8pm Central/9pm Eastern. Turnout has been described as "brisk" and "steady" in the reports that I've seen. We'll update this thread as results come in.
How well will Jindal do tonight? Will he avoid the run-off? Who will place second? I don't usually like to stick my neck out, but here's my bet, for what it's worth: Jinal 55%; no run-off.
