In a similar vein to my previous diary "A Democratic Nebraska" I moved a state south to see how Democratic a Kansan congressional district can be. However, early on I noticed that it was actually possible to make two districts in Kansas with a democratic lean, albeit a very, very slight democratic lean. As in the past the numbers are hand tabulated and should be quite accurate.
CD1(Blue): 53.5% Obama 73/9/10 W/B/H
The blight on the landscape that is CD1 stretches its hideous legs out from its nominal centre in Emporia to swallow up Pittsburg, Parsons, Wichita, Hutchinson, Manhattan, Junction City, Topeka, and parts of Lawrence whilst nimbly avoiding republican counties with any sort of significant population.
CD2(Green): 53.5% Obama 76/9/10 W/B/H
Compared in to CD1 CD2 is has a positively tidy shape. Based in Kansas City (the part that is in Kansas anyway) it runs up along the Missouri through Leavenworth to Atchison and south into the more Democratic parts of Johnson county before turning west into the heart of Lawrence.
CD3(Dark Magenta): 35.0% Obama 88/2/5 W/B/H
South-eastern Kansas wrapping around CD1. It would be a neater district if it was just southern Kansas and didn't turn north-east at Hutchinson, honestly I just didn't want to reassign the precincts south of Manhattan.
CD4(Red): 29.6% Obama 83/1/13 W/B/H
The rest of Kansas. Mostly the western and northern parts of the state but it does follow the Oklahoma state line quite a way east.
The single so called "super-democratic" district turned out to be 57.6% Obama (74/10/11 W/B/H) and appears below.
Of the states rolled out in this week's Census 2010 releases, North Carolina is by far the most interesting one. North Carolina narrowly missed out on a 14th seat, so it's staying at 13; its target is 733,499, up from about 619K in 2000. Unsurprisingly, the big gains come in the Charlotte and Raleigh metropolitan areas, with NC-09 in Charlotte's suburbs and NC-04 in Durham and Chapel Hill both well past the 800K mark. (The 9th is represented by GOPer Sue Myrick, although the state's district that shifted the sharpest to the left from Kerry to Obama, while the 4th belongs to Dem David Price and is the bluest white-majority district in the state.) NC-01 on the coastal plain, one of the nation's few truly rural African-American-majority seats, gained the least, followed by the three mostly-rural Appalachian-flavored seats (NC-05, NC-10, and NC-11).
How this shakes out for redistricting is complicated, because Republicans control the process for the first time ever and will want to undo a pretty Dem-friendly map from 2000... but without getting too greedy. What may be their first task, shoring up newly-elected Renee Elmers in what's currently a swing district, may be made easier by the fact the mostly-suburban/exurban 2nd will probably need to give a lot of its African-American population in Raleigh proper to the next-door 1st in order to preserve the dwindling 1st's black-majority VRA status. But since the 2nd didn't grow that fast, it'll then need to look elsewhere to grab some enough white votes to replace them... and since the GOP probably won't want those to be liberal transplants in the Research Triangle area, they may need to reach south into the 3rd or 7th instead.
I could see that in turn pushing Dem Mike McIntyre's 7th further west into Fayetteville and south central rural counties, keeping his district swingy, while also pushing Larry Kissell's 8th further west too, probably giving him a heaping helping of dark-red Charlotte suburbs and making him the likeliest Dem to get targeted for extinction. But the GOP has many, many ways to play this (see the Aaron Blake article linked above), and this isn't the only scenario.
District
Population
Deviation
NC-01
635,936
(97,563)
NC-02
741,576
8,077
NC-03
735,979
2,480
NC-04
826,878
93,379
NC-05
693,414
(40,085)
NC-06
714,412
(19,087)
NC-07
742,938
9,439
NC-08
709,449
(24,050)
NC-09
852,377
118,878
NC-10
689,468
(44,031)
NC-11
703,606
(29,893)
NC-12
736,346
2,847
NC-13
753,104
19,605
Total:
9,535,483
The other two multi-district states are much more clear cut and present similar profiles: in both Nebraska and Kansas, the big empty western districts need to expand greatly, and the urban/suburban districts need to shed population. The GOP controls the processes in both states; the only real intrigue might be whether they try to get fancy and crack the only-slightly-red Omaha-area NE-02 and Kansas City-area KS-03 to make them safer Republican seats. The target in Nebraska is 608,780, up from 570K in 2000. (Notice how low that is... Nebraska seems right at the top of the list for a lost seat in 2020.) In Kansas, the target is 713,280, up from 672K in 2000.
Now that it's 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in the coming weeks and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and it's time to look at Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Maryland.
We're going way downballot, baby. As I like to say: SSPers do it downballot. [and yes, I would buy a t-shirt that said that]
Wait, what is the DLCC and what are their essential races?
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is the downballot counterpart to the attention-hogging DCCC (triage!) and DSCC (save the saucer!). They focus on state legislative races and are especially active this cycle with redistricting hanging in the balance. State legislatures, of course, are crucial players in the process, and swinging them our way will help prevent DeLaymanders. The DLCC party poohbahs, as it were, selected 40 races, mostly focused on redistricting and the most hotly-contested state houses. Party Picks 1-20. Party Picks 21-40. But then the DLCC did something that made me love them. Oh yes, love. The DLCC solicited right here on SSP, nominations for more of these Essential downballot races. And apparently, we nominated the hell out of our candidates, because the DLCC announced The Grassroots 15, instead of just 10. And frankly, looking at the grassroots nominees, we did good y'all.
Why should I care?
Besides being SSP's bread and butter (well, Congressional races are probably the bread & butter...downballot is more like...the arugula?), I would posit that it is these sort of races that are truly the purest form of American democracy. The Founders, I think, both envisioned and practiced this sort of meet-your-neighbors campaigning. Downballot races are also much more dependent on candidates--almost never national forces sweep in and, say, donate $13 million to Sharron Angle when she's running for the Nevada state legislature. But the great thing from the perspective of civic-minded citizens is that participating in races like these can yield bigger and more tangible results than say, giving Jack Conway $20 (not that there's anything wrong with that). But when $20-$25k is enough for the entire race, even a small donation to Manning's campaign can make a big difference. So why does the DLCC say this race matters?
Why this Race Matters: This campaign turned ugly for Democratic nominee Dan Manning a few weeks ago when he discovered a death threat laced with anti-gay slurs on his doorstep. Manning is a decorated West Point graduate who was discharged from the military because of Don't Ask Don't Tell. If Manning wins his race, factional divisions within the state Republican Party would give him considerably more influence in the Kansas House than the GOP's wide chamber majority would suggest.
Democratic gains in state legislatures are crucial for building the "farm team" for higher offices.
That James L. link btw, enumerates the gains made in state legislatures in the 2006 election. And James, of course, is/was right--state Rep. Raj Goyle (KS-04) and state Rep. Bryan Lentz (PA-07), for example, are now in tight races for Congress, and were among those 268 net pickups in 2006 (that was in state Houses alone).
Well, in Dan Manning, Democrats may have a candidate who could eventually go far, far beyond the mostly middle-class neighborhoods of Wichita's 91st District. Find out why, after the jump....
Today marks the conclusion of a 3-part series examining the state of the Kansas state House of Representatives. In previous diaries, I ran through KS House seats 1-40 (start there if you're just joining us) as well as KS House seats 41-80. In this edition, I'll examine seats 81-125, which include most of the seats in rural Western Kansas, as well as some in the Wichita area.
KANSAS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES - 125 seats
Current composition: 76 Republicans, 49 Democrats (or about 61%-39%)
HOW TO READ THE COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS: KS-HR-# <---this is the district's number
43.5R/27D/28.6U <---this is the voter affiliation breakdown, R is Republican, D is for Democrat, and U is unaffiliated voters. Statewide, as of June 2010, the state's registration numbers were 43.5% Republican, 27.2% Democrat, and 28.6% Unaffiliated. Also, unless the tenth of a percent is a 4, 5 or 6, I rounded to the nearest full percentage point.
District Map <----this is the official map from this district from: KSLegislature.org the official state gov't site.
KS-HR-81: 47R/22D/30.6U : District Map : (R) Peter DeGraaf was appointed to the seat in early 2008, and won it outright in 2008 after a competitive primary with 55% in the general election. So it's a seat that can be competitive. Unfortunately, the best Dems could come up with this cycle was 21-year-old Wichita State student Zach Ketteman. Still, Ketteman is at least giving it a go, campaigning hard and scoring several endorsements, and getting fined by the state Ethics Commission for forgetting to include "Paid For By..." on campaign materials (along with several others, btw). Whoops. Well, at least we know he's sending out campaign materials. Rating: Likely Republican
In my last diary, I ran through KS House seats 1-40, so if you haven't read that, I'd advise starting there. In this edition, I'll examine seats 40-80, which include some in suburban Johnson County (heavily covered in the previous edition) as well as Topeka, Salina, and much of the eastern & central parts of the state, even reaching down to the Wichita exurbs.
KANSAS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES - 125 seats
Current composition: 76 Republicans, 49 Democrats (or about 61%-39%)
HOW TO READ THE COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS: KS-HR-# <---this is the district's number
43.5R/27D/28.6U <---this is the voter affiliation breakdown, R is Republican, D is for Democrat, and U is unaffiliated voters. Statewide, as of June 2010, the state's registration numbers were 43.5% Republican, 27.2% Democrat, and 28.6% Unaffiliated. Unless the tenth of a percent is a 4, 5 or 6, I rounded to the nearest full percentage point in most cases.
District Map <----this is the official map (pdf format) of this district from the Legislature's website (opens in a new window). Maps from: KSLegislature.org.
COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS: KS-HR-41: 32R/34.5D/32.5U : District Map : (D/Open) - With the retirement of Democrat Marti Crow, this still-competitive, but increasingly blue, seat is now open. In 2008, Crow smacked down Republican Jana Taylor Goodman 59-41, who, having won the Republican primary convincingly, is back for another try at the seat in 2010. Crow and other local Democrats are backing Nancy Bauder, the Exec. Dir. of the Community Development Corp. of Leavenworth, and a small business owner. Gov. Parkinson held a fundraiser for Bauder, whose high-quality website makes Goodman's look outlandishly amateurish. Her economic development credentials are also flawless, and make Goodman's non-existent ones even more pronounced. Rating: Lean Democrat
KS-HR-42: 41R/27D/31U : District Map : (R) Connie O'Brien, a retired special education teacher, won her seat in 2008 with almost 60% of the vote against the underfunded Timothy Moran, but faces a challenge from James "Jim" Pittman, a military veteran, engineer, and Chairman of the Lansing Planning Commission. O'Brien, a mother of 11(!) and vice-chair of Leavenworth County Republicans, is a past President (1996) of Kansans for Life, the most powerful local anti-abortion group. As such, she's aligned herself with the hardcore conservatives, both socially and fiscally. This could make her vulnerable to a strong challenge, though I'm unsure if Pittman can provide it (though he certainly has a good profile to do it). Rating: Likely Republican
On a personal note, having examined lots of local legislators' websites, voting records, biographies, positions and electoral histories, I have concluded that Connie O'Brien is the single worst person in the entire Kansas Legislature. She is a hardcore, unthinking, dogmatic partisan who insults her fellow legislators (Democrats and Republicans alike) while distorting the work of the Legislature. While Connie's Corner sounds like the type of place you might find knitting tips, with Connie O'Brien you'll find intense partisan invective that you won't find on nearly any other legislator's website. And what the hell kind of grandmother votes against requiring people to wear seatbelts while voting to let them smoke in restaurants? She is a lying, egotistical, hypocritical bigot whose presence in the Legislature is a disgrace to the state, and especially to the people of Leavenworth County.
Beard Fight! KS-HR-43: 44R/22D/33.4U : District Map : (R) Mike Kiegerl (at right) was first elected to this new district upon its creation in 2002. He's faced a declining share of the vote as the area urbanizes (well, suburbanizes) and grows more moderate, taking only 53% of the vote in 2008 (thanks to a Libertarian eating a huge 12% of the vote). This cycle, he faces Democrat Kevin King (at left), an analyst at Sprint, who looks a bit like Kiegerl, actually. The area remains quite Republican-friendly and Kiegerl has been a low-profile conservative, but King's been running a pretty strong campaign, racking up endorsements and showing up at community events. Rating: Lean Republican
KS-HR-45: 35.6R/32D/32U : District Map : (R) Tom Sloan - While the moderate Sloan has managed to hold this blue-tinted district since 1995, winning 53-47 over an untested Democrat in 2008, his luck may be about to run out as he faces two-term former Lawrence school board member (and former President) Linda Robinson. She also happens to be a longtime community leader (Governor's Education Council, Lawrence Chamber of Commerce, Rotary Club, etc) while not being terribly old (I'd guess late 50s?) She's about as top-tier as they come for a race like this. Rating: Tossup
KS-HR-47: 46R/25D/28.5U : District Map : (R) Lee Tafanelli - First elected in 2000, Tafanelli faced a somewhat close call in 2002, winning 56%. In 2004 & 2008, he was unopposed. He served in Iraq in 2005-2006, but got back in time to defeat the youthful bluegrass musician/student Jim Faris in 2006 with 65% of the vote. He will face Faris, now an Oskaloosa city councilman (pop. 1165), local journalist and paraeducator, again in 2010. It should be a closer race, now that the warm glow of military service has dissipated more fully from Tafanelli and Faris has some local political credibility. Also, Faris plays the upright bass in his family's mildly successful bluegrass band, which is kinda awesome. And he's a newlywed and expecting a baby this month, actually. Awww... Rating: Likely Republican
One of the things I like best about SSP is finding out about interesting downballot races that would otherwise escape my notice. So in that spirit, I've put together a massively comprehensive guide to the state races in Kansas in 2010.
Wherefore art thou, Sean Tevis, oh star of the 2008 KS State House races?
While Kansas isn't exactly high on anyone's radar for this election cycle, there are plenty of competitive races (KS-03 & KS-04, plus nearly all the statewide offices this year) throughout the state. Join me, won't you, for a look at what's happening downballot in the Kansas state Legislature?
But before we get into an analysis of the various districts in play this cycle, there are a few things to keep in mind...one is that this diary wasn't meant to be published so soon. It was also way too long, so I was going to publish it in parts, but I hadn't decided on what those parts were. Apparently, I'll be doing it in thirds, since I just did seats 1-40, the competitive ones, at any rate.
In 2010, only Kansas House of Representatives seats are up, with the exception of ...
STATE SENATE: KS-StSen-07: Moderate state Sen. David Wysong resigned, leading Republicans to choose state Rep. Terrie Huntington as his replacement. With a fairly moderate profile, she must now fend off challenges from the left and right in the only Senate seat being contested this cycle (the full Senate, including this seat, is up in 2012). Republican David Harvey is coming at her from the right, but she survived (barely) with 54% in the primary. Democrat Wayne E. Hodges awaits in the general. Possessing a master's in public administration, Hodges is an adjunct professor at Park University and a sometime writer/reporter. We could do a lot worse, although Hodges starts at a distinct disadvantage over a battle-tested moderate Republican. Hodges bio
In 2004, Wysong won with 56% of the vote, and was re-elected with 54% in 2008. So it's not a totally unwinnable district. If Hodges can't win it in 2010, I'm betting state Rep. Mike Slattery (KS-HR-24) might try to move up in 2012. Of course, even if Hodges wins, Republicans will still dominate the upper chamber 30-10. Rating: Likely Republican
With that little appetizer out of the way, let's get to the main course of this feast of local political analysis...
Democratic nominee Stephene Moore wields the power of delicious baked goods in her quest for KS-03.
KANSAS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES - 125 seats
Current composition: 76 Republicans, 49 Democrats (or about 61%-39%)
HOW TO READ THE COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:
KS-HR-# <---this is the district's number
43.5R/27D/28.6U <---this is the voter affiliation breakdown, R is Republican, D is for Democrat, and U is unaffiliated voters. Statewide, as of June 2010, the state's registration numbers were 43.5% Republican, 27.2% Democrat, and 28.6% Unaffiliated. Out of the roughly 1.7 million registered voters, there are also about 10,000 registered Libertarians, along with 1,169 members of the Reform Party. Also, unless the tenth of a percent is a 4, 5 or 6, I rounded to the nearest full percentage point in most cases.
Before we start, I'd meant to put something in about how off-year elections are actually the better ones for KS Democrats. A smaller electorate is generally a more moderate and better-informed one in Kansas. Sure, the teabaggers may be out in force, but that's nothing new in Kansas. And Democrats, as you'll see, have a lot of competitive candidates up and down the ballot, not only Stephene Moore & Raj Goyle for Congress, not only the best statewide slate we've had in a long while (Holland, Kultala, Six, McKinney & Biggs), but even in many state legislative races, Democrats are now fielding pretty solid candidates who can compete and possibly win. So below, find the first chunk of contested districts, all the ones I've ranked as competitive that number between 1 & 40.
Among these, there are some that are either totally safe (thanks to PVI heavily favoring one party) or uncontested completely. In districts 1-40, those seats are:
Geographically, seats 1-40 are centered on the eastern edge of the state, hence the seemingly high quantity of competitive seats. (generally speaking, KS gets more conservative as you go West). Most of the competitive ones below are in suburban Johnson County, which has been going from rosy red to quite purple rather quickly. The exceptions in competitive seats in 1-40 are the rural, Fort Scott-based 4th, the 10th, which takes in the suburban/exurban/rural areas south of Lawrence, and the Fort Leavenworth-based 40th. The two Fort districts border Missouri, and Lawrence is just one county over from the state line (via Johnson or Wyandotte, aka-the Dot) from the state line.
11:07pm: Follow us over here.
11:05pm: One more KS-Sen point before we wrap up this thread: four of the largest counties in Moran's KS-01 have reported either 0 or 1 precincts so far: Reno (Hutchinson), Geary (Junction City), Ford (Dodge City), and Finney (Garden City). So the tide is only beginning to turn.
10:57pm: More on KS-Sen: even with Johnson Co., Moran is still leading Tiahrt in the neutral districts, 48-45. Their own districts are a wash: Moran is winning the 1st 69-28, and Tiahrt is winning the 4th 67-28.
10:55pm: Now this is interesting. Johnson Co., the biggest county in Kansas, seemed to report every precinct en masse... and it went narrowly for Tiahrt (49-45) despite Moran, at least to my mind, fitting its suburban profile better. Nevertheless, despite losing the prize of Johnson Co., Moran is, as expected, starting to pull back ahead. He's up to a 48-46 lead over Tiahrt, with 56% reporting statewide.
10:51pm: SSP Labs is projecting 39.1% for Benishek, 37.4% for Allen when all is said and done in MI-01.
10:48pm: 88% are reporting in MI-01 R, and we aren't anywhere near a conclusion yet. It's Benishek over Allen, 39-38, with a 900-vote spread separating them.
10:46pm: And add yet one more. The AP has called MI-07 R for Tim Walberg, who beats Brian Rooney 59-31. That's gotta be good for us... Walberg is too wingnutty for that swing district, and having run for that office the last three times, everybody already knows him.
10:44pm: The AP adds one more call: the D primary in MI-12. Sandy Levin beats the promotion-seeking state Sen. Mickey Switalski fairly convincingly, 73-27.
10:43pm: And the AP has called KS-04 D for Raj Goyle, who most definitely did not get VicRawl'd tonight. He beats Robert Tillman 81-19, a bit like smashing an ant with a hammer, but those ads will still help build up his name rec for November.
10:41pm: The AP has called MI-Gov R for Rick Snyder. Good news: the next governor of Michigan will not be a wingnut. Bad news: Snyder, with his moderate appeal, will probably be the toughest matchup for Bernero in November.
10:37pm: I haven't seen this many Dutch guys beating the crap out of each other since the last time Feyenoord played PSV Eindhoven. (Sorry, obscure 'football' reference there.)
10:36pm: Meanwhile, back in MI-02, which Hoekstra is probably feeling bad about having vacated, it's a 30-30 tie between Huizenga and Kuipers. Social con Riemersma (who polls had in the lead) is falling back to 18, with teabagger Cooper at 12.
10:34pm: No AP call yet on the GOP side in MI-Gov, but we're getting word that Peter Hoekstra has conceded the race (presumably to Snyder, who leads Hoekstra 37-26, with Cox at 24).
10:32pm: Here's more data from SSP Labs, about KS-Sen, where the spread is about 600 votes. About 40% of Tiahrt's district has reported, though, while only 23% of Moran's has, and Moran is winning the other two CDs, 51-41.
10:31pm: In Missouri, Vicki Hartzler has pulled into a bigger lead in the MO-04 GOP primary. She's up on Stouffer, 42-30. That's with 62% reporting, including both of their home counties fully in.
10:29pm: Great White Dope Lynn Jenkins is going back to the House from KS-02 for another term, it looks like. The AP has called her race against Dennis Pyle, although she finishes with an underwhelming 59%.
10:26pm: In KS-Sen, the real question mark is going to be Johnson County. This is the most populous county in the state, the suburbs ringing Kansas City, Kansas, and the core of KS-03. Only 1 of 447 is reporting so far (with a 50-42 lead for Moran, in case you care).
10:25pm: This is the first time all night we've seen a Todd Tiahrt lead in KS-Sen. They're both at 47%, with Tiahrt ahead by about 900, with 27% reporting. Bear in mind, though, that Segwick Co. (Wichita, Tiahrt's town) has largely reported; it's 74% in. So this is probably as good as it gets for Tiahrt.
10:20pm: We've suddenly jumped to two-thirds reporting in the MO-07 R primary. That clot of Nodler voters in Newton Co. apparently showed up, but it's not enough to swing the needle. It's still Long 35, Goodman 29, Nodler 16.
10:08pm: Over in MI-01, Benishek now leads Allen by 39-38. In KS-01, Huelskamp has pulled to a 35-25-24 lead over Barnett and Mann, but there are lots of votes left to count there.
10:03pm: In the KS-Sen race, Moran now leads Tiahrt by only 47-46, but bear in mind that Tiahrt's home district (KS-04) has more precincts reporting than Moran's 1st CD so far.
10:01pm: Over in MI-13, Clarke leads Cheeks Kilpatrick by 48-38 with just under 37% in. To take a look at the track record of other House incumbents who've faced primaries this cycle, check out our handy chart here.
9:58pm: With more than 1/3 in, things are still very tight in MO-04. Hartzler leads Stouffer, 37-35. On the Dem side, the race has been called for Ike Skelton. He defeated man/lion hybrid Leonard Steinman... the very kind of being that the GOP is looking to stamp out... 81 to 19.
9:56pm: One race that isn't close is MI-07, also with almost half in. It's Walberg 58, Rooney 32. Thus ending the dream of two Rooney brothers in the House... and of Domino's Pizza having its own personal in-house Representative.
9:55pm: More than half is reporting in MI-01, and Jason Allen continues to nurse a small lead (39-37) on Dan Benishek.
9:53pm: On the R side, we're probably nowhere near a call. Snyder's at 37, with Hoekstra closest at 26, and Cox at 24. Bouchard (and by extension Ted Nugent) pretty much a non-factor here at 11.
9:51pm: The AP has called MI-Gov D for Virg Bernero! He leads Andy Dillon at the same 58-42, with about 20% reporting.
9:49pm: Wow, things are even closer in KS-Sen now. It's Moran 47, Tiahrt 46 with 10% in.
9:48pm: In KS-04, we have enough to report on: Mike Pompeo leads at 37, with Jean Schodorf (who led at very first) at 29, and Wink Hartman at 21. And on the Dem side, looks like the Raj Goyle ad blitz paid off, and then some. He's beating Robert Tillman 79-21.
9:47pm: Back in KS-02, Lynn Jenkins continues to underwhelm in the GOP primary; she's at 59 against teabagging state Sen. Dennis Pyle. At least she's doing better than Sean Tevis, who's in 3rd and last place among the Dems.
9:46pm: Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick looks like she's on her way to becoming the 4th primary casualty in the House this year. With 27% in, she trails Hansen Clarke 50-35.
9:45pm: Wow, nearly a 3-way tie in the GOP field in KS-01: Mann 29, Huelskamp 28, Barnett 26.
9:43pm: Things are just getting underway in KS-03, with about 3% in, but Kevin Yoder has a pretty solid lead over Patricia Lightner in the GOP primary: 48-35.
Moving the party over to a fresh new thread.
FL-Gov (R) - (yes!!!!!!)
FL-Sen (D) - Meek v. Greene
FL-12, 25 (R) - open seats
FL-02, 08, 22, 24 (R)
FL-02 (D) - challenge to a Blue Dog from the left, v4.1
FL-17 (D) - Meek's open seat
AK-Gov (R) - Parnell and the ghost of Palin?
AK-Sen (R) - Murkowski v. Palin proxy
8/28:
LA-Sen (R) - Vitter v. Traylor
LA-02 (D) - Lafonta v. Richmond
LA-03 (R)
CT-Sen: Linda McMahon has already spent at least $22 million on her senatorial bid - and though she has plans to shell out much more, she's already the fourth-largest self-funder of all time. The good news is that the top three are pretty uninspiring: Jon Corzine (NJ-Sen 2000: $60 million, 50.1% in general); Blair Hull (IL-Sen 2004: $29 million, 11% in primary); Michael Huffington (CA-Sen 1994: $28 million, 45% in general). Check out the second page of CQ's piece to see who rounds out the rest of the top 10. Only three actually won a seat in the Senate, and all of them served one term or less - by choice!
FL-Sen: Ah - live by the zillionaire asshole, die by the zillionaire asshole. Joe Trippi, who apparently thought he could make a buck by helping schmuckface Jeff Greene run negative ads against Kendrick Meek, has been axed. This is pretty unsurprising, in light of an in-depth story by the St. Pete Times which catalogs just how much of a jerkass Greene actually is. Here's a representative sample:
Adam Lambert worked as captain of Greene's 145-foot yacht, Summerwind, earlier this year.
"He has total disregard for anybody else,'' chuckled Lambert, who said he was Greene's 20th and 22nd Summerwind captain (No. 21 quit after a few hours with Greene).
"I don't think I ever once had an actual conversation with him. It was always, 'I should just get rid of you, what f------ good are you? You're just a f------ boat driver. You're the third-highest paid employee in my corporation and I should just get rid of you,' '' Lambert, 43, recalled by phone from a yacht in Croatia. "It didn't bother me. I just felt sorry for the man. He doesn't seem very happy."
Quite apropos of all this, Dave Catanese takes a look at the "band of others" which has come together to run Charlie Crist's campaign. Catanese says that Crist's team "is staffed by a collection of misfits who run the gamut from longtime loyalists to out-of-state hired guns. They have worked for Democrats, for Republicans and even for prominent independents. As with Crist, ideology appears to take a back seat to winning office."
MO-Sen: Mostly-failed teabagger Chuck Purgason has an internal poll out (at least, I think it's an internal) from Magellan Strategies... but that's not really the point. There are two super-huge problems with this poll. First off, there are literally zero undecideds - Purgason claims he's beating Dem Robin Carnahan 56-44. Secondly, releasing a general election poll just days before an almost hopeless primary looks extremely unserious. I don't give a damn about Purgason, but I don't think either of these issues make Magellan look particularly good.
GA-Gov: Barack Obama is visiting Atlanta to speak to a disabled veterans convention and to host a DNC fundraiser today, but Dem gubernatorial candidate Roy Barnes will be visiting other parts of the state. Several prominent Dems are planning to attend the events, including Labor Comm'r Michael Thurmond (our senate nominee), and Reps. David Scott and Sanford Bishop, the latter of whom has a competitive race this fall.
NY-Gov: Steve Levy has completed his transition from widely disliked xenophobic DINO to memorable Republican loser: He said he wouldn't seek the Independence Party's line this fall, and formally gave his backing to Rick Lazio. Meanwhile, Elizabeth Benjamin says a source tells her that another disgruntled Republican, the vile Carl Paladino, is doing the opposite - he's reconsidering his decision not to run on a third-party line and may run on his own "Taxpayers Party" line if he loses the GOP primary in September. Apparently, the teabaggers are taking the long view here, hoping that they can create a "true" conservative rival to the, ah, Conservative Party, even if that means helping Andrew Cuomo win the gubernatorial race.
WY-Gov: Mason-Dixon did a poll of the Wyoming gubernatorial primaries for the Casper Star-Tribune. On the GOP side, state Auditor Rita Meyer leads with 27, followed by former U.S. Attorney Matt Mead with 24, House Speaker Colin Simpson with 17, and former legislator and state Ag. Director Ron Micheli with 12. For Democrats, former state Dem chair Leslie Petersen leads pilot and former University of Wyoming football star Pete Gosar by a 30-22 margin.
FL-08: Franking - the privilege that allows members of Congress to mail out nominally "informational" materials to constituents at taxpayer expense - is one of those things that's usually a lame non-issue... until it's an issue. Incumbents have been pushing the boundaries of proper franking for centuries, and it rarely gets traction in campaigns, but I really wonder if Alan Grayson's gone too far with this one. He recently sent out a DVD to 100,000 homes in his district (at a cost of $73K) titled "Watch Congressman Grayson in Action!" featuring a few dozen clips of his greatest hits in office. Maybe the video will be popular, maybe no one will care, maybe some Republicans will howl and get ignored - we'll see.
IL-10 (PDF): It's a bit musty, but Mike Memoli got his hands on an internal poll from the Dan Seals campaign taken in mid-May by Anzalone-Liszt. The numbers are a damn sight better than most Dem internals, showing Seals with a 46-38 lead over Republican Bob Dold, and a 41-32 lead among independents. Despite the poll's age, I'd be surprised if things had changed a whole lot since then, given that the air war hasn't really been joined yet.
IL-13: Dem Scott Harper had apparently been trying to shop the results of an informed ballot test on a recent internal poll from Global Strategy Group but didn't seem to get many bites. So he finally decided to pull a Raul Labrador and release the proper toplines, despite their utter - almost extreme - suckitude. Rep. Judy Biggert leads Harper by a 55-29 margin. The most ridonc thing is that Biggert felt compelled to put out her own, not-exactly-dueling internal in response. I say that because the numbers in Biggert's survey (taken by American Viewpoint) show her up 61-28. This was really not a well-managed move by the Harper campaign.
KY-06: Republican Andy Barr, formerly a top legal aide to disgraced former Gov. Ernie Fletcher, is coming under fire for his shoddy handling of a response to a government records request under the state's equivalent to the Freedom of Information Act when he worked for Fletcher. In a 2007 report, then-AG Greg Stumbo (a Dem) said that Barr's failure to produce records on account of their alleged non-existence meant that he was responsible for "records mismanagement." However, Stumbo's office did not determine that Barr had actually violated the state open records law.
LA-02: The DCCC added state Rep. Cedric Richmond to its Red to Blue program on Friday. This tells me two things: First, the D-Trip doesn't think much of Richmond's primary challenger, fellow state Rep. Juan LaFonta. Second, DC Dems are concerned enough about Rep. Joe Cao's staying power that they're getting involved in a reasonably contested primary, something they have largely avoided this cycle. Now in fairness, Louisiana has a very late primary - August 28th - with an absurdly late runoff on October 2nd. So I can understand wanting to avoid a pressured one-month campaign. Still, this suggests to me that this race is not the "gimme" we might have once imagined.
NY-01: Stuck behind Newsday's paywall is a story which says that GOPer Christopher Cox has filed a lawsuit seeking to invalidate fellow Republican Randy Altschuler's ballot petitions. This is exactly the kind of war that Democrats in New York have been hoping for. I can't wait to read more about it. And don't forget that there's a third candidate in the race, George Demos, who is being publicly slammed for alleged ethical lapses while he was an SEC attorney by a former supporter, John Catsimatidis. You may recall that Cox is engaged to Catsimatidis's daughter, which explains the old man's turnabout.
NY-15: You've probably already seen this, but Barack Obama said in an interview with CBS News that Charlie Rangel should "end his career with dignity." Really wonder if the old bull is going to keep fighting this thing.
NY-24: Mmm... donuts. The owner of a local donut shop, Michael Sadallah, filed a lawsuit trying to knock Republican Richard Hanna off the Independence Party line. Sadallah, an Independence Party member, has also donated to Rep. Mike Arcuri. Oral arguments are this week - good luck, dude!
OK-05: True Some Dude James Lankford just earned the endorsement of third-place finisher (and state Rep.) Mike Thompson, who scored 18% in the first round despite spending $900,000. Lankford took 34% and former state Rep. Kevin Calvey had 33%. Lankford and Calvey face off in an August 24th runoff.
Kansas: A rare bit of good news on the voter registration front: Over the last year in Kansas, "Democrats gained 11,260 voters, rising to 460,318; unaffiliated voters increased 38,764 to 490,395, and Republican ranks increased 3,189 to 744,975." Obviously, that's a pretty sizable edge for the GOP, but it's still nice to see Dem gains both in absolute numbers and percentages outstrip the Republicans - especially in such a red state, and especially in a year like this.
