Kentucky has been turning the corner and getting back to its Democratic roots. We voted for Bill Clinton twice, but went through a spell where Republicans peeled off our House and Senate seats. That changed some when Ben Chandler lost his bid for Governor in 2003 and won one House seat. Our Democratic Attorney General at the time, Greg Stumbo then went on to expose the Republican Party in Kentucky for the corrupt machine it was, and John Yarmuth became a fresh pickup and one of the very best of the freshman class that won in 06.
Polls are closed in Kentucky and there are exactly two contests worth watching in the Bluegrass state: the Democratic primaries for the Senate and the 2nd Congressional District. I'm feeling pretty ill today, so no liveblogging for me.
May is going to be an exciting month for political junkies. We've got a cornucopia of races to watch this month: two special elections, and a number of competitive House, Senate and Gubernatorial primaries.
Let's take a look at the month ahead:
May 3: This Saturday, Louisiana voters will head to the polls in two congressional special elections:
LA-06: Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux will square off with "newspaper editor" Woody Jenkins to fill the open seat of ex-Rep. Richard Baker. In this hotly contested race, Democrats have been blessed with the better candidate, stellar fundraising, and favorable polls. However, the NRCC and their allies have dumped hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads painting Cazayoux as a serial tax raiser and a Barack Obama disciple.
We'll find out on Saturday night if any of these attacks have made an impact. The most recent poll, though, shows Cazayoux with a nine point lead. SSP will be liveblogging the results, so be sure to check with us then. There will also be a special election to replace Bobby Jindal in LA-01, but this one should be a solid lock for the GOP.
May 6: While the eyes of the nation will be fixed on the Indiana and North Carolina presidential primaries, voters in these states will also be deciding a number of other hotly-contested primaries:
IN-Gov (D): Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger will square off with former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson for the Democratic nod against Mitch Daniels. Schellinger's had a big fundraising edge, but the polls here have generally been tight, with an edge for Thompson. This one could be close.
IN-07 (D): Despite winning a March special election to fill the vacant seat created by his grandmother's passing, Rep. Andre Carson faces a competitive primary for the Democratic slot on the November ballot. His strongest rival is former state Health Commissioner Woody Myers, who has lent his campaign a substantial amount of money. State Reps. David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays will also be on the ballot.
NC-Gov: Democrats will decide a contentious primary between Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and State Treasurer Richard Moore for the gubernatorial nomination. Perdue has had the advantage in nearly all of SurveyUSA's tracking polls here.
Republicans will also decide a primary for this office between Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and state Sen. Fred Smith (plus two also-rans). In the most recent SUSA poll, Smith was only four points behind the front-runner McCrory.
NC-Sen (D): State Senator Kay Hagan and businessman Jim Neal will face off for the Democratic nomination to challenge GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole. While this contest was effectively tied for a while, Hagan's large fundraising edge on Neal has been enough to buy her a 20-point lead in the latest poll.
NC-03 (R): For a while, it looked like this primary might have been as heated as Andy Harris' successful overthrow of anti-war moderate GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in Maryland. But Onslow County Commissioner Joe McLaughlin's campaign against Rep. Walter Jones hasn't gotten a lot of fundraising traction. It will still be worth watching to see just how tolerant GOP primary voters will be of Jones' anti-war stance.
NC-10 (R): While I don't expect Air Force vet Lance Sigmon to topple the odious Patrick McHenry in the GOP primary, his campaign drew a fair bit of attention for his aggressive attacks on McHenry's antics in Iraq (calling a security worker a "two-bit security guard", and compromising troop safety by posting a video of an attack in the Green Zone). Democrats have a strong candidate against McHenry for the November election -- veteran and hero Daniel Johnson -- so Sigmon's showing might give us a good reading on how damaging McHenry's behavior has been to his re-election chances in this R+15 district.
May 13: Another huge day for political watchers, with hot races in Mississippi and Nebraska.
MS-01: The big event. Democratic Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers has waged a startlingly strong campaign for the open seat left behind earlier this year when Roger Wicker was appointed to the Senate. Despite running in an R+10 district and being at a financial disadvantage, Childers edged GOP candidate and Southaven Mayor Greg Davis by a 49%-46% margin in the April 22 special primary election. Davis and the NRCC have fought back hard, trying to tie Childers to Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama. But the DCCC is playing to win, and they've invested a whopping $1.1 million in this race. This one should be close.
NE-Sen (D): Here's something rare -- a Democratic primary for a statewide office in Nebraska. Businessman and former Republican Tony Raimondo will compete with former congressional candidate Scott Kleeb for the Democratic nod against the Republican front-runner, Mike Johanns.
NE-02 (D): GOP Rep. Lee Terry had a surprisingly close re-election campaign in 2006, winning his district by less than 10 points against political neophyte Jim Esch. Now, Esch is back for a rematch, but will first meet with Iraq War vet Richard Carter for the Democratic nomination. Between Esch's name recognition and Carter's weak fundraising, Esch is in a good position to win here.
May 20: There are four primaries in Kentucky and Oregon worth keeping an eye on.
KY-Sen (D): Former gubernatorial candidate and businessman Bruce Lunsford and businessman Greg Fischer will face off against a slew of also-rans for the Democratic nomination against GOP obstructionist-in-chief Mitch McConnell. Lunsford has never been able to win a Democratic primary, but this might be his chance. Polls have shown him with a large lead against Fischer, whose campaign has yet to catch fire.
KY-02 (D): Democrats will go to the polls to decide between state Sen. David Boswell and Daviess County Judge-Executive Reid Haire for the Democratic nomination to contest this open seat left behind by the retiring Rep. Ron Lewis. Boswell was seen as the early front-runner, but his fundraising has been extremely sluggish ($30K to Haire's $200K in the first quarter). Still, Boswell might have a chance based on name recognition alone.
OR-Sen (D): Another big event, with state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and activist Steve Novick competing for the Democratic nomination against Gordon Smith. Novick has kept this a competitive race, airing quirky ads and winning several key newspaper endorsements.
OR-05: With the retirement of Rep. Darlene Hooley (D), there are tight primary contests on both sides to succeed her. Democrats will pick between former Gov. Kitzhaber aide Steve Marks and state Sen. Kurt Schrader. Marks has picked up the larger share of endorsements so far, while Schrader appears to be the DCCC's preferred candidate. (Update: As Kari notes in the comments, my statement about endorsements here is a bit off the mark. Schrader's been no slouch in this department at all. My mistake!)
On the GOP side, voters will choose between '06 nominee and businessman Mike Erickson and former Gov. candidate Kevin Mannix.
There you have it. May will be a month chock full of races worth watching. SSP will aim to liveblog as many of these races as we can when the results come in.
Expect more of these surprises in the weeks and months ahead:
In perhaps the biggest surprise of the day Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis of Cecelia will not seek re-election, declining to run for another term in the 2nd district.
Daniel London, Lewis's chief of staff, filed minutes before the filing deadline, with his wife dropping off the papers.
State Sen. Brett Guthrie of Bowling Green, having heard of the possibility of Lewis getting out, also filed for the Republican primary.
It all came down with just moments to spare before the 4 p.m. filing deadline. And it came on the heals of Democrat Reid Haire, the Daviess County judge executive, filing to give fellow Democrat David Boswell of Owensboro, a competitive primary on May 20.
Kentucky Democrats aren't wasting any time after ousting Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher. Capitalizing on the momentum coming out of Tuesday's election, they're already planning strong challenges to members of the state's Republican congressional delegation. The first target appears to be Rep. Ron Lewis, who will soon face off with State Senator and former Agriculture Commissioner David Boswell:
Democratic State Sen. David Boswell of Owensboro said he is planning a press conference "in the very, very near future" to officially announce his candidacy to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis of Cecilia. "I do plan to run for the U.S. Congress in the 2nd District," Boswell said yesterday. "I think people, overall, are ready for change. They're ready for a new guard." Boswell, who was agriculture commissioner from 1984 to 1988 and has been a senator since 1991, said the win by fellow Democrat Steve Beshear in Tuesday's governor's race gives him and other potential candidates for next year's election a huge boost.
However, Lewis' district might be a tough nut to crack as it clocks in with a PVI of R+12.9. While Kerry took 34% of its vote in 2004 and Gore only claimed 37% in 2000, Lewis was softened up a bit in 2006 by a challenge from state Rep. Mike Weaver (D), who held him to a 55%-45% win. Weaver's campaign never really caught much traction, despite the DCCC's hope that he was a top tier recruit. We'll see if Boswell can mount a more effective campaign, but Mark Nickolas over at the BluegrassReport feels good about him.
Kentucky Democrats are also hoping to recruit State Auditor Crit Luallen to take on US Senator Mitch McConnell. Luallen cruised to re-election with 59% on Tuesday night and could offer McConnell a strong challenge.
Via the Bluegrass Report comes a new DCCC/Kentucky Democratic Party poll on the 2nd district race between state legislator Mike Weaver and incumbent Republican Ron Lewis (Oct. 26-29; Sept. 22-25 in parens):
Mike Weaver (D): 46 (42)
Ron Lewis (R-Inc.): 43 (50)
MoE: ±4.9%
I've always figured that this race was a questionable longshot given the district's strong Republican lean (in federal votting patterns, not registration), but it appears that Weaver, a retired Lt. Colonel, has been able to gain traction in this district and is starting to bring registered Democrats home. The DCCC has put in nearly $200k into this district for stretch run attack ads against Lewis, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that number expand considerably in tonight's FEC filings. We might be able to steal one here.
Update: A few days ago, a Washington Post article quoted an anonymous Democratic "operative" calling the DCCC's support of Weaver "guilt money" to cleanse their consciences after cajoling Weaver into the race. I didn't buy it then (it's hard to imagine Rahm spending time worrying about people's hurt feelings when the same could be said about several other Democratic challengers this year), and I definitely don't buy it now. It seems as if some anonymous "operative" was attempting to throw off the NRCC from taking Weaver seriously (and I doubt they bought it, either, although you never know with the leakariffic culture of DC Democrats).
