Two of the first House races that will begin reporting this evening are Indiana's 3rd District and Kentucky's 2nd. These are two incredibly tough districts -- IN-03 is R+16, and KY-02 is R+13. If Democrats can defeat GOP Rep. Mark Souder in Indiana or pick off the open seat in KY-02, tonight is going to be a huge night. If we fall short in either, well, it still could be big.
Just as Crisitunity did yesterday in his county-by-county baseline analysis of key statewide battlegrounds, let's take a look at how the Republicans fared in each of these districts in 2006. Here's IN-03:
County
Souder
%
Hayhurst
%
Allen
41,901
50
41,163
50
Elkhart
15,644
61
9,887
39
Kosciusko
11,882
64
6,656
36
Noble
6,243
54
5,247
46
DeKalb
5,630
54
4,890
46
Whitley
5,300
54
4,503
46
Steuben
4,716
52
4,351
48
LaGrange
3,613
55
2,986
45
Total
94,929
54
79,683
46
And KY-02:
County
Lewis
%
Weaver
%
Daviess
13,936
49
14,378
51
Warren
15,666
58
11,198
42
Hardin
14,629
57
10,901
43
Bullitt
10,679
55
8,712
45
Shelby
7,046
56
5,637
44
Barren
6,784
57
5,073
43
Nelson
5,087
47
5,792
53
Taylor
5,720
65
3,020
35
Grayson
5,435
63
3,183
37
Meade
4,566
54
3,941
46
Breckinridge
4,256
59
2,925
41
Marion
2,353
40
3,544
60
Spencer
3,268
59
2,294
41
Green
3,338
71
1,374
29
LaRue
2,565
58
1,871
42
Hart
2,372
55
1,972
45
Edmonson
2,414
58
1,717
42
Ohio
2,225
61
1,414
39
Washington
1,902
53
1,708
47
Jefferson
1,603
46
1,868
54
Hancock
1,580
49
1,669
51
Total
117,424
55
94,191
45
As the early returns come in, these baselines should be helpful in order to determine just how strong of a shot Democrats Mike Montagano and David Boswell have. For what it's worth, I'm expecting a 2006-style defeat in KY-02, but that shouldn't get us too down -- Boswell hasn't run a particularly impressive race.
My friends, this does not look good. National money has been pouring into the district at a furious clip in recent weeks, and it doesn't seem to have done Boswell much good (remember, back when this race was not engaged, Boswell lead by 3 points in late June). A recent DCCC poll may say otherwise, but it's getting hard to ignore this string of consistently disappointing SurveyUSA polls.
Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 62-35 in this district. More details on the poll's internals are available here (pdf).
David Boswell (D): 47
Brett Guthrie (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.9%)
The last couple of polls we saw of this race didn't give us much reason for optimism. SurveyUSA showed Guthrie pulling ahead by nine points after trailing Boswell earlier in the year, while a Boswell internal showed Guthrie erasing Boswell's seven point lead and replacing it with a dead heat.
Both the DCCC and the NRCC are spending considerably on this R+13 open seat, but I'm gonna remain skeptical about this one, especially given all the blowback surrounding the DCCC's ads.
This is one of those few races where the DCCC's involvement has seemed to have done more harm than good. Just check out this recent Bowling Green Daily News editorial to see what I mean.
On the heels of this rough SUSA poll, Boswell has released his own internal poll. Garin Hart Yang (10/8-9, likely voters, 8/23-25 in parens):
After David Boswell posted leads in the last round of SUSA's polling and in a Garin Hart Yang internal last month, Republican Brett Guthrie has pulled ahead in the latest poll. Having the airwaves to himself for over a month is a likely cause, but the DCCC didn't do Boswell any favors after their attack ad was pulled by a local station, allowing Guthrie to crow about "dishonesty" from Democrats. Not a great start out of the gates here by the DCCC.
The DCCC filed $1.37 million worth in media buys in support of Democratic House candidates tonight. Here's the damage:
District
Incumbent
Group
Media Buy
AL-02
Open
DCCC
$91,520
AL-05
Open
DCCC
$60,700
AZ-01
Open
DCCC
$183,679
AZ-05
Mitchell
DCCC
$168,245
AZ-08
Giffords
DCCC
$58,462
CT-04
Shays
DCCC
$119,130
FL-16
Mahoney
DCCC
$91,081
IL-11
Open
DCCC
$40,953
KY-02
Open
DCCC
$88,977
LA-06
Cazayoux
OPHTHPAC
$49,163
MD-01
Open
DCCC
$145,851
MI-07
Walberg
DCCC
$63,040
MI-09
Knollenberg
DCCC
$47,392
MN-03
Open
DCCC
$131,894
VA-11
Open
DCCC
$80,915
Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has aired ads in AZ-08, FL-16, KY-02, MD-01, and VA-11.
The lone GOP-friendly media buy comes from the bastards at the American Academy of Ophthalmology, which is dropping cash in support of Republican Bill Cassidy (himself an MD) in his race against Don Cazayoux. See you in hell, eye doctors!
But don't get the impression that this is one-sided affair just because the NRCC is holding its musket fire. Freedom's Crotch is up with some ad buys of its own smearing Democrats:
AL-02: $150,000
IL-11: $430,000
NJ-03: $74,000
NJ-07: $500,000
The Crotch is also spending an unspecified amount on NM-01 and NV-03. Ugh.
Now, the Democrat has been added to the DCCC's exploding "Red to Blue" list and estimates he's taken in another quarter of a million dollars since the May 20 primary. But the best news may be the DCCC reservation of $840,000 worth of ads in the district, with the ads slated to begin at the end of the week.
The DCCC's ads could be in critical in the expensive Louisville media market, where about three-fifths of the voters reside and where neither Boswell nor Guthrie is particularly well-known. The National Republican Congressional Committee has not reserved time in the district.
Earlier in the summer, Boswell posted a three-point lead over Republican state Sen. Brett Guthrie in a SUSA poll of the race. He followed that up earlier this month with a Garin-Hart-Yang internal showing him leading by eight points. Boswell has been active in Kentucky politics for decades, serving in the state Senate since 1991, and before that, as the state's Commissioner of Agriculture and five years in the state House.
However, with only $45,000 in the bank at the end of June, Boswell was at risk of getting swamped out by the far superior fundraising of Guthrie. With the DCCC on board, Boswell now has a fighting chance.
David Boswell (D): 41
Brett Guthrie (R): 33
(MoE: ±4.9%)
This is a real opportunity, no doubt. An earlier poll this summer from SurveyUSA showed Boswell, a longtime state Senator, leading Guthrie by three points for this open seat. While Kentucky's 2nd has a PVI of R+12.9, it's an ancestrally Democratic seat and Boswell has a good deal of name recognition from his long stint in Kentucky politics, including serving a term as the state's Agriculture Commissioner.
However, if Boswell hopes to win this one, he's gonna need to bundle some money together, and fast. When we last checked in with the Bos at the end of June, he had only $45K in the bank (compared to Guthrie's $661K). Former Senate candidate (and richie rich) Greg Fischer has stepped forward in recent weeks to help money find Boswell, and other Kentucky Dems were pushing this race hard in Denver. However, Boswell needs to crank it up in order to seize this opportunity.
Well, the political season has gotten pretty hot in Kentucky. With a Senate seat, and four hotly contested House seats here, Democrats here are fired up. Despite what any poll has said to this point, all these races are winnable. We have fielded a surprisingly impressive lineup of candidates and we are ready to fight for them. Meeting some of the delegates, and Jennifer Moore, the KDP chairman has convinced me that our party is ready to fight.
David Boswell (D): 47
Brett Guthrie (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.3%)
While Kentucky's 2nd CD is ancestrally Democratic, its PVI is a deep red R+12.9, so this is a pretty strong showing for Boswell -- one that might turn some heads in DC. Boswell and Guthrie are both state Senators, but Boswell has been around forever (and even served for a term as the state's Agriculture Commissioner).
Fundraising has been a bit of an issue for Boswell: his legislative duties have distracted him from putting his full energies into campaigning and raising cash until relatively recently. Guthrie held a nearly 4-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage in the latest filings, which is why the DCCC may have been reluctant to award Boswell with "Red To Blue" status and instead slotted KY-02 in the "Emerging Races" slate for the time being.
However, this result should help grab the attention of donors.
SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican, but it might be due for an upgrade if Boswell continues to perform strongly in the polls and kick his fundraising into a higher gear.
