Here's a pair of polls in deep red GOP districts that you don't see polled every day: Kansas' 1st and 4th CDs, the state's two most conservative districts.
James Bordonaro (D): 13
Jerry Moran (R-inc): 77
Other: 4
(MoE: ±3.5%)
At a PVI of R+20.3, Kansas' sprawling 4th CD is the 9th most Republican district in the nation. Moran won by a 79-20 margin in 2006, and it looks like nothing much will change this year.
And now for the Wichita-based 4th district. SurveyUSA (8/17-19, likely voters):
The 4th CD is a tough district for any Dem to crack, but it's obviously not the hopeless case that the 1st is. At a PVI of R+12.2, the 4th CD hasn't sent a Democrat to Congress since 1992, when voters gave Rep. Dan Glickman his final term in office.
Donald Betts, an African-American state Senator with a charmed political career in Kansas politics so far, is giving the district a go, but it'll be very difficult for him to close the gap, especially with only $68K left in his campaign account. Still, anytime you have a state senator running for higher office, the race is worth watching.
These are all states with filing deadlines in June
The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here - basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here . I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well....I give you the Cook number too.
KS has 4 congressional districts: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans
NH has 2 congressional districts: Both Democrats
OK has 5 congressional districts: 1 Democrats and 4 Republicans
RI has 2 congressional districts: Both Democrats
WA has 9 congressional districts: 6 Democrats and 3 Republicans
