In Kansas, redistricting is controlled by the state legislature, with the Governor having veto power. By far the most likely political scenario is that in 2010, Republicans will have a huge advantage in the state Senate (currently 31-9) and a big one in the state House (currently 76-49) and likely a new Governor in conservative Republican Sam Brownback (ugh) unless Democrats find a miracle candidate to take him on.
But one-party control has its downsides: namely, a long-running split between the party's hardcore conservatives and its moderates, who regularly side with Democrats to either make mischief or enact good policy, depending on your point of view. It plays out in the legislature regularly, and in the congressional seats occasionally.
The most recent example is the 2nd District's Nancy Boyda, a Democrat who knocked out the very conservative Jim Ryun in 2006, 51-47. "Moderate" Lynn Jenkins edged out Ryun in the 2008 Republican primaries and was able to bring enough Republicans back into the fold to defeat Boyda 51-46.
Here's the thing: If (conservative) Brownback is elected Governor in 2010, the last thing he'll want to do in 2011-2012 is a pick a fight with legislators over redistricting.
Summary:
Indiana has 9 representatives: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans
Iowa has 5 representatives: 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans
Kansas has 4 representatives: 1 Democrat and 3 Republicans
Possibly vul: IN-02 (D)
IA-03 (D)
KS-04 now open but was (R)
Sources:
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.
