Crossposted at Daily Kingfish, a Louisiana politics blog by and for Louisiana Democrats
Even though the full results have been made available to the media, the Louisiana GOP refuses to read and to acknowledge a Verne Kennedy poll commissioned by John Georges, Republican candidate for Governor from Metairie. The poll of 600 Louisianans conducted 29 March through 3 April yielded some interesting results. According to the Shreveport Times,
When the poll concentrated only on Jindal, Breaux and Georges, the responses to the question about which candidate the respondent would chose if the election were today were 39 percent for Jindal, 30 percent for Breaux and 14 percent for Georges, with 17 percent uncertain.
Everyone here should be aware of the following advertisments on YouTube smearing John Breaux. He has not yet annouced, but the Louisiana Republicans are already prepared to bombard Louisiana citizens with falsehoods and distortions.
In his diary last Thursday, Rob broke the news that troubled incumbent Gov. Kathleen Blanco vowed to run even if former Sen. John Breaux (D) entered the race. Breaux, a strong backer of her 2003 bid, issued a statement of support, saying that she's "earned the right to run for re-election". At the time, we speculated that this was Breaux's way of pulling back from a potential run while allowing Blanco to save face.
However, louisianagirl brings us something pretty eyebrow-raising: a John Breaux For Governor shell website. It's bare bones right now, and we can't even be sure if it's legitimate, although it looks pretty good for what it is.
It's not much, but it's enough to stir the embers under the LA-Gov rumor kettle yet again.
Gov. Kathleen Blanco has signaled she will not drop out of the race for Governor in Louisiana even if former U.S. Senator John Breaux enters the race. Many political analysts see Breaux as possibly the only chance Democrats may have to hold the state's highest office. GOP Congressman Bobby Jindal has so far been outpolling Blanco by landslide proportions.
Gov. Kathleen Blanco said Wednesday she plans to run for re-election regardless of whether former U.S. Sen. John Breaux jumps into the race.
"My decision is predicated on me and my experience and not on anything that Sen. Breaux and anybody else might be interested in doing," Blanco said at the State Capitol.
Meanwhile, Breaux, who still is silent on whether or not he is running for governor, issued a statement of support for his fellow Democrat.
"I've always said that Gov. Blanco has earned the right to run for re-election. She has a good story to tell the people of our state about how hard she has worked against incredibly difficult circumstances," Breaux said through his spokesman.
(I'm working on what seems to be shaping up to become an all-nighter of a research paper, so please use this thread to discuss the latest goings-on in Louisiana. I'm heartened to hear that Breaux's legal team believes that "citizenship" isn't much of an obstacle--and indeed, "citizen" as a legal term is a much broader requirement than "resident". - promoted by James L.)
Breaux said there's no question that he meets the state Constitution's requirement of being a "citizen" of Louisiana for the past five years, even though he changed his voter registration to Maryland in 2005.
"I don't just own two lots in Crowley. It is my family home. When my mama died, I inherited half of it. My dad lives there. We pay taxes on it. My wife, Lois, owns property in Louisiana," Breaux said. "I never revoked my citizenship in Louisiana."
Lawyers have looked at the constitutional requirement and determined he meets the citizenship requirement, Breaux said.
Breaux will announce in the "very near future," or after he has a discussion with Blanco. Foster Campell will still run, and Jindal's supporters have hijacked the comments thread attached to the article. But this is my favorite comment:
But his citizenship is not the issue, he said.
"The issues are health care, education and rebuilding. That's what it is all about," Breaux said.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee released a poll yesterday aimed at demonstrating the vulnerability of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) in her 2008 reelection bid.
Fifty-one percent of the sample said they would vote to reelect Landrieu and 42 percent said they would consider someone new -- a sign, according to pollster Glen Bolger, that Landrieu is a "vulnerable Democratic incumbent."
Although Bolger writes that "when voters are given a choice between Landrieu and a Republican they know, they invariably choose the Republican," the poll memo includes data for only one statewide head-to-head matchup: Rep. Bobby Jindal (R-La.), who is running for governor this year, led Landrieu by 55 percent to 39 percent. No matchup between Landrieu and Rep. Richard H. Baker (La.) -- the Republicans' preferred candidate -- is mentioned in the memo.
Landrieu won her seat in 1996 by 5,788 votes and was reelected in 2002 with 52 percent of the vote.
One problem to consider is the NRSC's decision to poll Landrieu against Jindal, especially as Breaux is still considering a gubernatorial bid. Another is the inherent bias of this Republican poll: Is Landrieu more popular than the results claim? And would Jindal really have a chance if Breaux defeats him in 2007? And lastly, is Landrieu as vulnerable as the RSCC claims when over 50% of Louisianans want her reelected?
That's the question that has been on my mind since having these dizzying special election results seared into my cortex last weekend:
On Saturday, February 24, there were three special elections for vacancies in the Louisiana House of Representatives. All three seats were previously held by Democrats, and Democrats easily held on to two of these seats by capturing both run-off slots. This was no surprise, as both of these retained seats were African-American majority districts. The other seat, HD01, however, was not a sure thing for Democrats. Louisianagirl, in her coverage last weekend, wrote:
Although it was previously held by a Democrat named Roy "Hoppy" Hopkins, who recently died of cancer, this open seat can be won by either party. Indeed, the district has a tendency to vote for Republicans in federal races: John Kerry only received 32.28% of the vote in 2004; Kathleen Blanco received 44.15% of the vote in 2003; and Mary Landrieu received approximately 45.34% of the vote in 2002. A populist Democrat who understand agricultural and infrastructural issues can win in this district that includes rural Caddo and Bossier Parishes, but it will be a difficult seat for Democrats to hold in November.
And here's what she had to say about what was at stake:
LA-HD1 is what I consider to be a bellwether race. If we hold it, we will hold the Louisiana House in November. If we lose it, then we need to prepare ourselves for the fight of our political lives in November. Watch the returns of this race, as this race will determine how hard Louisiana Democrats will have to fight if they want to hold on to their majorities in the state legislature.
So let's put it all on the table: at a combined 27% of the vote, the two Democratic candidates in this special election did even worse than John Kerry's performance in the district in 2004. When the locals can't break Kerry's benchmark, you know that we've written a new definition for "rock bottom" in Louisiana.
So what happened? By the looks of it, Republicans showed up ready to wrestle this seat to the ground, and Democrats simply did not. Their candidate, "Jim" Morris, as a Caddo Parish Commissioner, had a high profile in the local government, while Hollier was something of an unknown. Based on his experience alone, Morris easily snatched up the endorsement of the Shreveport Times, and the rest is written on the wall. By not putting forth a proven candidate and funneling the appropriate resources to this race, the Louisiana Democratic Party is sending signals of apathy and resignation, rather than the do-or-die, balls-to-the-wall ethos that they will need to exhibit in order to come out of 2007 alive.
Having a drag like Gov. Kathleen Blanco at the top of the ticket this year would be bad enough for the Democratic majorities in the state legislature, but Louisiana Democrats will have to deal with another vulnerability: term limits. As louisianagirl wrote in her authoritative diary on the subject, half of the 60 incumbent Democrats in the Louisiana House will face mandatory retirement after this year. With only 53 seats needed to obtain control of the House, that leaves a lot of room for an aggressive, district-by-district challenge by a renewed Louisiana GOP in coordination with a strong top of the ticket challenge to Gov. Blanco.
The stakes of this are fairly high. Without friendly control of the LA legislature, Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon could see his U.S. House district, and his job security, go up in smoke due to creative redistricting by state Republicans. On the other hand, if Democrats controlled the redistricting levers, Louisiana's congressional delegation will almost assuredly lose at least one Republican member of the House in 2012, after the census readjusts the state's representation to account for population loss.
Additionally, how does ceding certain "swing" districts to the Republicans bode for Democrats' ability to retain the offices of Gov. Kathleen Blanco and Sen. Mary Landrieu? Not well, I would argue.
If the Louisiana Democratic Party is serious about staying a relevant political force in the state after November, it has to aggressively defend these seats. With the disturbing revelation that our one potential savior at the top of the ballot, former Senator John Breaux, is likely ineligible to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination after he registered to vote in Maryland after he retired in 2005, this defense is all the more crucial. Just as the New York GOP put everything into holding the State Senate in a wave year, the Louisiana Democratic Party should be preparing something similar for the legislature.
The Louisiana Democratic Party has a shot at redemption coming up very quickly--the March 10th special election for the 94th House District. Louisianagirl contends that, with candidate Deborah Langhoff at the helm, this is a legitimate pick-up opportunity for Team Blue--one of only a precious few that Louisiana Democrats will see during this cycle. Is the Louisiana Democratic Party doing all that it can to help her out? Given what pitiful lengths they went to keep the 1st District competitive, I almost dread to hear the answer.
Here is some interesting news from the Cook Political Report:
February 16, 2007
Breaking News: Former Democratic Sen. John Breaux is seriously considering a bid for Governor of Louisiana. John Maginnis, editor of the highly regarded Louisiana Political Fax Weekly, initially reported the news this morning, and the Cook Political Report has independently verified that it is true. Apparently Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco has privately indicated a willingness to step aside if Breaux, or possibly another Democrat, such as Rep. Charlie Melancon, would run instead.
None of this is a done deal, but Breaux is serious, and his candidacy would change the face of the race for Democrats.
