It's 49-37 Smith in SUSA's first poll of the Oregon Senate race.
Gordon Smith leads among women 48-39, peels off 28% of Democrats, and wins 18-34 year-olds, 53-29%. Sample is 100% white, and breaks down 41D-37R-21R. Smith even leads in the Portland region.
This was taken just before Smith's latest attack ads, and there are serious questions about Merkely's financial ability to fight back. So is this another screwy SUSA poll, or can this one be written off?
Yesterday I wrote about how Gordon Smith and the Oregon Republican party had released a web ad and website smearing Jeff Merkley's record. Today, the DSCC fired back with a brilliant ad nailing Gordon Smith on the war on Iraq. See more below the jump...
Proof that Jeff Merkley is gaining fast in his quest to be the next Senator from the great state of Oregon increases by the day. In the latest, the Oregon GOP goes after Merkley's supposed campaign finance violations and then puts up a pathetic website attempting to smear Merkley's tax record. More below the jump.
Rasmussen (7/15, likely voters) (6/11 in parentheses):
Jeff Merkley (D): 43 (38)
Gordon Smith (R-inc.): 41 (47)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
I was not expecting this, at least not so soon, but now we have a public poll that shows Jeff Merkley with a very small lead over Gordon Smith in the Oregon Senate race. (Rasmussen also now gives alternate results with 'leaners' pushed: if so, the race is tied at 46/46.)
Smith's favorability numbers have also dropped since the last poll. Last time, 58% of voters viewed him either very or somewhat favorably; this month it's 53%. Coupled with a re-elect number well below 50%, and with only a 3% edge among men, that all spells trouble for Gordo. Maybe all the lashing himself to the mast of the Good Ship Obama isn't helping him much.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
The following is a review of Oregon's primary and a preview of Oregon's fall elections now that the primary results (with the exception of Ballot Measure 53) are certified. Crossposted from Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/16/121742/983/269/536725).
As I noted in my wrap-up of the OR-Sen Democratic primary, Speaker Jeff Merkley and the Democrats have the grassroots, the issues, and the momentum. All Republican Gordon Smith has going for him is a campaign bankroll just shy of $5 million.
Smith is unquestionably vulnerable. With enough resources, Merkley will be able to cut through Smith's spin and deliver the facts of Smith's record to the voters of Oregon. But, of course, he'll need the support of people throughout the grassroots and the netroots.
To that end, I have added Merkley to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and am announcing the "Twenty Twenties for Jeff Merkley" effort. Basically, I'm pleading with twenty of you to contribute at least twenty dollars via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page toward helping Jeff Merkley oust Gordon Smith. Can twenty of you spare twenty bucks to bounce a bum like Republican Gordon Smith from the hallowed halls of the U.S. Senate?
I think we can get twenty twenties in by the end of Memorial Day weekend. Please contribute if you can. Thanks yet again!
There are three Portland-based, general circulation newspapers: The Oregonian, The Willamette Week, and the Portland Mercury*. The number of times they've all endorsed the same candidate for a major office recently can probably be counted on one hand (or less!), but when it comes to the Democratic nomination for Senate, they're in perfect harmony: they want the guy with the hook.
We covered The O's big Sunday endorsement of Steve; let's add in the others. First, Willamette Week, whose nod may certainly have been less of a surprise than that from the House of Stickel, but which comes on the heels of a joint endorsement interview Novick's critics--and even some supporters--mark as his low moment of the campaign. The ed board may or may not have liked Novick's answers on the peripheral questions of the race, but they liked Merkley's issue positions even less, making note of three separate areas of "concern."
In the end, the editors appear happily surprised to have Novick exceed their expectations to become a legitimate, solid candidate with the potential for greatness:
Let’s be clear. Back in January 2007, Novick was little more than a placeholder. Novick has a rapier wit, a winning affinity for sports references and an impressive behind-the-scenes résumé working for worthy causes. But Oregonians were waiting for another, more credible Democratic challenger to Smith, a telegenic senator who’s raised boatloads of cash and worked to style himself in the moderate image of past Republican icons such as Mark Hatfield, Bob Packwood and Tom McCall. We all thought that other person would come along.
We were hotly divided between the fun, speak-his-mind insurgent who calls to mind the late Sen. Paul Wellstone and the impassive Merkley, who calls to mind the widely respected Sen. Al Gore—the wooden version, before he became as steaming as the planet.
In the end, we rallied around Novick because we see a capacity for a refreshing independence and an unwavering willingness to tackle our toughest issues, like providing universal health care and ending the war in Iraq. We recognize, too, he could be a spectacular failure, a quotable firebrand for the left who is both alienating and alienated. Our hope is he commits himself to becoming the Senate’s best workhorse before shooting for the ranks of Sunday talk-show showhorse. Novick, please play nice.
{the Merc's endorsement, and even bigger swipe at Merkley, below}
Oregon House Speaker and U.S. Senate candidate Jeff Merkley has his first TV spot up on the air!
The ad highlights Jeff's history as a fighter for Oregon's progressive values and Jeff's commitment to going to the U.S. Senate to end the war in Iraq, protect a woman's right to choose and gain accessible health care for all.
