I'm not saying there aren't plenty of 2010 candidates that need our help. (There are! Please help!) I'm just saying that helping our previous progressive winners to close their books and retire their debts could encourage other Democrats currently running to follow in more progressive footsteps, knowing we have their backs.
I'll leave you with a few reasons to be very, very proud of Senator Al Franken's first months as a U.S. Senator (and very, very motivated to help retire his campaign debt):
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/22-24 in parentheses):
Jeff Merkley (D): 47 (45)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 41 (40)
Other 6 (6)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Yesterday's Rasmussen poll showing a tie in the Oregon Senate race gave the blogosphere some pause (as well it should, as this one is by no means over). Research 2000 gives us a bit of very good news, though, and their 6-point spread is more in line with Pollster's composite of 45-41.
This poll shows a sizable chunk (6%) going to "Other," which I assume mostly means Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow (who has polled around 7% when specifically named in SurveyUSA polls). (The crosstabs indicate that the biggest support for "Other" is coming from the Independent column, though, not from Republicans, so right-wing GOPers may be staying more loyal to Smith than I'd previously assumed.)
Another interesting bit in the crosstabs: Smith's favorables/unfavorables are currently at 40%/47%: not as bad for him as they've been in Dem internals, but still not the kind of numbers that, y'know, lead to someone getting reelected.
Rasmussen (10/14, likely voters, 9/15 in parentheses):
Jeff Merkley (D): 47 (45)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 47 (46)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
There seems to be a lot of preemptive celebrating of a pickup of this seat, but Rasmussen's newest poll indicates that Gordon Smith isn't going to go quietly into the night. It's a tied race, although that's actually an improvement from last month, where Smith had a 1-pt. lead.
Rasmussen has tended to be a litle more favorable to Smith than other pollsters recently. Part of that may be that they don't account for Constitution Party candidate Jeff Dave Brownlow, who vacuumed up 7% of the vote in SurveyUSA polls. Looks like one of the big questions, come election day, will be how many hard-right rural voters come home to Gordo (whom they tend to view as an effete RINO, although their dissatisfaction is more likely to be more from a nativist Paulist angle than a theocon angle) instead of registering the protest vote.
James wrote yesterday about the shameless bullshit GOP Sen. Gordon Smith is pulling on the airwaves. Oregon's other senator, Dem Ron Wyden, endorsed Jeff Merkley and appears in a new ad with him. Yet Smith cut his own ad which makes it appear as though Wyden is endorsing El Gordo. Like I said, a load of crap.
Wyden, however, doesn't find much humor in the ad. He's particularly upset that the ad includes his signature at the end, superimposed on a photo of the two senators, and he's asking the Smith campaign to pull the ad.
"I guess we should be flattered by all the attention," said Josh Kardon, Wyden's chief of staff in Oregon. "But the unauthorized use of Ron's signature is no laughing matter. Its use will confuse voters about who Ron supports in this race, and the ad should come down."
Another embarrassment for Smith. He previously tried to claim a faux-endorsement from Obama, which lead to an unequivocal statement from the Obama camp that our nominee supports Jeff Merkley. Nice try, bub.
It's pretty clear who Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden supports in the Oregon Senate race between Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Gordon Smith. Afterall, Wyden recently cut an ad making a passionate endorsement of Merkley despite his friendship with Smith. So what does El Gordo do? He parses together some misleading clips of Wyden talking about their good working relationship and then has the gall to stamp Ron Wyden's own signature onto his ad -- as if it were an endorsement from the man himself!
Just compare the two ads:
I've gotta say, that may be one of the most shameless ads I've seen all cycle from anybody. Wyden should ask El Gordo to pull this ad off the air.
In this edition of my irregular series on Oregon political news, I discuss another set of interesting stories that have popped up. These include Sen. Wyden's (D-OR) new ad for Merkley as well as the Bill Sizemore's admission that he was using private foundation funds for his own purposes.
SurveyUSA for Roll Call & KATU-TV (9/22-23, likely voters, 8/2-4 in parens):
Jeff Merkley (D): 44 (37)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 42 (49)
Dave Brownlow (C): 8 (7)
Undecided: 6 (MoE: ±3.8%)
That's a sharp drop for Smith, and it confirms all the recent polling we've seen here. Interestingly, both candidates have weak approvals: 31-42 for Smith and 30-35 for Merkley. But Merkley leads independents 45-36 and is benefitting from a top-of-the-ticket surge. Obama now beats McCain 52-41. (He led just 48-45 early last month.)
Last week, I began analyzing the state of the races out West. And ever since then, I've received feedback about me not including all the competitive races out her. And to all of you fretting, I say... Don't worry!
Because we have so many opportunities to not just pick up electoral votes for Obama, but also additional House and Senate seats, I just couldn't pack them all into one diary. So today, without further adieu, I give you Part 2 of "On Winning the West"!
Jeff Merkley (D): 45 (39)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 46 (47)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
There's been a decided shift in momentum in the last few weeks in this race: the Merkley internal poll giving him the lead (and giving Smith a catastrophic 61% disapproval rating), a panicky Smith dropping his 'nice guy' image to run sleazy attack ads, and Willamette Week pounding away at Smith on the hiring-illegal-immigrants front (with new research released today, interviewing five people who were illegals at the time of employment for the Prince of Peas).
Well, we have some confirmation from a public pollster: Rasmussen, who last month seemed to show a race slipping away from Merkley, shows a huge bounce-back for Merkley, now down just by 1. Significantly, Merkley leads 46-42 among unaffiliated voters.
We at SSP had been suspecting that where there was smoke, there was fire; with confirmation from a public pollster, we feel confident in upgrading this race to "Tossup."
Over the weekend, skywaker9 diaried about Gordon Smith's outrageous new ads accusing Jeff Merkley of being soft on sex offenders. The ads, of course, are bogus and misleading, and Merkley is hitting back with a pair of his own spots released today:
The first ad features Kristi Gustafson, an Oregon law enforcement officer, defending Merkley against Smith's "lies and innuendo". It's an effective spot.
Gordon Smith is making a dangerous play with his ads, hoping to saddle Merkley with a Willie Horton-type of situation. It's a kind of nastiness I haven't seen in an ad since the 2005 Virginia gubernatorial campaign, when Tim Kaine was pilloried in attack ads for serving as a defense attorney to clients charged with homicide. We all know how that one turned out for Jerry Kilgore.
I sort of wonder if this could be Gordon Smith's Nancy Johnson moment -- an example of an incumbent who everyone thought was "nice" suffering from a heavy backlash after releasing over-the-top attack ads against their political opponents.
It's a bit too early to tell, but Gordo is skating on some thin ice.
