Back in May, former Hamilton County Commissioner Phil Heimlich (yes, from that Heimlich family, hence the awful pun in the headline) said he'd run against Evel Knievel Mean Jean Schmidt in the OH-02 Republican primary.
Democrats rejoiced at the thought of a bloody internecine war - and then rejoiced again last month when yet another GOPer, state Rep. Todd Brinkman, also jumped into the fray. What better way to ensure Schmidty's survival than a fractured, multi-way primary?
On Wednesday, though, Heimlich bitterly acknowledged this possibility and decided to bail for his own warped version of the greater good:
"Mr. Brinkman's candidacy serves no purpose other than to assure Rep. Schmidt's renomination," Heimlich said in the news release. "There is no reason to put the Republican Party through a tough primary battle when victory isn't possible."
However, I'm not so sure this is necessarily a bad development. Heimlich had actually out-raised Schmidt and conceivably could have chalked up a narrow plurality win with a third candidate in the race, assuming the anti-Schmidt vote were big enough to drive the incumbent below, say, 40%.
But Brinkman now has to win outright, and he's only been in the game for six weeks. What's more, Ohio has one of the earliest primaries in the country - it's fast approaching on March 4th. Whereas Heimlich had been campaigning for the better part of a year, Brinkman will have less than three months to attempt his coup.
Sure, it's conceivable that the local establishment will rally behind Brinkman in the short time left, but what we've seen so far suggests it's not likely. The same Enquirer article notes:
Friday night, the Hamilton County Republican Party's executive committee passed over two Hamilton County Republicans - Heimlich and Brinkman - to endorse Schmidt, of Clermont County. Schmidt was the favorite of 69 members, while Heimlich had 33 votes and Brinkman, five.
If the GOP powers-that-be (at least in Hamilton County, one of seven that make up the district) were going to pick an anti-Schmidt, they'd probably already have done so.
Given that Schmidt took under 48% in her hotly-contested primary in 2006, I won't rule anything out. But Brinkman will have to move fast and raise a lot of money to out-hustle Schmidt. Like her sartorial idol Mr. Knievel, Mean Jean has already defied (political) death more than a few times. She may have another jump in her still.
Steve Black, Democratic Candidate for Congress from OH-2 has posted a position paper on Irag:
A New Direction For Iraq
The situation in Iraq is grave. There are no easy answers to the numerous challenges presented by Iraq's multi-sided civil war and the increasing threat of terrorism and regional insecurity the war has fostered. However, we must act now to contain the violence and move the region toward stability, as well as to ensure that our superb military is not stretched thin and that it used more effectively.
I believe it is imperative to reduce troop levels in Iraq and to begin their phased redeployment to strategic counter-terrorism missions under the guidance of our military leadership. Aggressive diplomacy is also long overdue to ensure that our allies and Iraq's neighbors have a strong incentive to promote regional security; greater diplomatic efforts are also necessary to quell heightened tensions in the Israeli-Arab conflict. A renewed focus on Afghanistan is likewise critical - the gains we made there are rapidly being lost as the Taliban and al-Qaeda regroup. In addition, we must fulfill a moral duty, as well as protect our long-term security interests, by dealing with the huge refugee crisis arising from the Iraq War. Finally, we must ensure that the military and their families who have borne the burdens of Iraq receive the best of care and services - it is the right thing to do, and it is common sense to ensure that our military stays strong to continue the fight against terrorism and to make our nation secure.
Given that Republican Representative Jean Schmidt of Ohio has accomplished the remarkable feat of barely winning two successive House elections in a district that delivered nearly two thirds of its vote to George W. Bush in 2004, it should probably not come as a surprise that Schmidt is on the receiving end of her second primary challenge in as many years. As you may recall, she beat back a 2006 primary challenge from former Congressman Bob McEwen by a 5% margin, despite only receiving a plurality of the vote. That primary proved to be an ominous warning against her abilities to navigate the political environment that November.
This time, the man itching for a fight is former Hamilton County Commissioner Phil Heimlich (yes, of that Heimlich family, it would seem). Heimlich served for eight years on the Cincinnati City Council and one term on the Hamilton County commission until his defeat by Democrat and former Cincinnati mayoral candidate David Pepper last November. It's an okay resume, but his experience is decidedly more city-focused than the largely suburban/rural nature of the 2nd district--something that could conceivably hurt him in a head-to-head with Schmidt.
Still, Heimlich says he means business:
Heimlich said in an e-mail message to supporters that he has filed the necessary paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission and that his campaign treasury, which will be overseen by Bill Luchsinger, contains $120,000.
"Our party is yearning for a return to the principles established by Abraham Lincoln, the leadership and dignity demonstrated by Ronald Reagan and the common sense conservative values shared by all Republicans," Heimlich said.
If that's the case, Mr. Heimlich's $120K puts him in a good position against Schmidt, whose lackadaisical fundraising pace only left her with $17,000 cash-on-hand (and $20K raised) after the first quarter of 2007.
Essentially, if Heimlich, or any other halfway stable Republican beats Schmidt in the primary, this district is most likely off the playing field for Democrats in 2008. Any Republican who hasn't spent their time advocating for the importation of nuclear waste into their congressional district, brushing off the Walter Reed scandal as "overblown", or being scolded by the state's Elections Commission for displaying a "reckless disregard for the truth" is going to have a much smoother ride than Schmidt in this solidly Republican district. Our best case scenario would be for Heimlich and possibly one or two other credible Republicans to hammer Schmidt mercilessly for a year, leading her to another underwhelming plurality victory, and letting Vic Wulsin or the eventual Democratic nominee take over from there.
Whether it's advocating for the importation of nuclear waste into her congressional district (which inspired one of my all-time favorite editorial cartoons), sending out infantile, racist campaign mailers, or embarrassing herself on the floor of the House of Representatives, you've got to wonder if Jean Schmidt was born with some of the worst instincts in American politics today, or if she's simply trying to test the upper limits of endurance that her ruby red district (R+13) is capable of handling.
Schmidt, a Clermont County Republican, decided to take "several hours" to travel to the hospital in Washington, D.C., to see the situation "first hand."
Her conclusion?
"I found the situation at Walter Reed to be overblown by both politicians and the media."
Given that Republican Representative Jean Schmidt of Ohio has accomplished the remarkable feat of barely winning two successive House elections in a district that delivered nearly two thirds of its vote to George W. Bush in 2004, it should probably not come as a surprise that Schmidt is on the receiving end of her second primary challenge in as many years. As you may recall, she beat back a 2006 primary challenge from former Congressman Bob McEwen by a 5% margin, despite only receiving a plurality of the vote. That primary proved to be an ominous warning against her abilities to navigate the political environment that November.
