I sincerely hope that you are not getting sick over analysis of the special election to replace the late Jack Murtha. Because I have taken some time to look over the race and what I think it means for 2010 as a whole.
• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo made statements in a speech at Schenectady County Community College on Tuesday to the effect that his "only plan is to run for re-election as attorney general," and that he believes David Paterson will be re-elected as governor. I wouldn't be prone to believe him (and it seems like nobody else does either; only The Hill has taken any notice of this comment), given his poll numbers and the fundraising groundwork he's laid. It just seems weird; he's well past the point where he needs to be coy about his plans.
• NY-20: About that recent DNC ad touting Obama's endorsement of Scott Murphy... while the existence of the ad itself has been gobbling up a good deal of headlines, it appears that it won't actually be seen by a lot of eyeballs in-district. The DNC's independent expenditure filing with the FEC indicates that they're only putting up $10,000 for the ad buy. (J)
• CA-10: Departing Rep. Ellen Tauscher has already endorsed state senator Mark DeSaulnier to take her place. Apparently she had intended to wait until he formally announced his candidacy, but the internal poll from yesterday from assemblywoman Joan Buchanan showing her in the lead may have forced Tauscher's hand.
• UT-Sen: The knives are still out for Bob Bennett, but it's looking like someone higher up the totem pole than former Juab County DA David Leavitt may jump into the primary: Attorney General Mark Shurtleff is also "considering" it. Ultra-conservatives sense an opening because of Bennett's pro-bailout vote, and also because of Utah's unique nominating system. A candidate who consolidates activist support and breaks 60% at the state convention outright wins, and can avoid the primary altogether.
• KS-Sen: Here's another example of how Oklahoma senator Tom Coburn likes to keep us guessing. Not only is he wading into the GOP senate primary in his neighboring state, but he's endorsing Rep. Jerry Moran, who passes for a moderate by Kansas standards, over Rep. Todd Tiahrt, from the religious right corner of the party.
• MI-11: Back to the drawing board? Democratic state Sen. Glenn Anderson, who has been the target of a draft effort to encourage him to take on GOP weirdo Thaddeus McCotter, says that he'll probably run for re-election instead. (J)
• PA-12: Bill Russell, who held Jack Murtha to 58% in 2008, is back for another try in 2010. No word if he'll use BMW Direct for his fundraising efforts again.
Dane & Associates for Glen Meakem (10/27-28, 'probable' voters, 10/13-14 in parens):
Jack Murtha (D-inc): 46
William Russell (R): 44
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Here's the takeaway: don't call your constituents 'racists.' Jack Murtha is an institution in this D+5 district (he's the one of only two sitting congress members to have the local airport named after him... the other one, of course, is Ted Stevens). Institution status notwithstanding, though, we're starting to see a pattern here in his post-gaffe environment... as much as these GOP internal polls individually seem ticky-tacky, they're accumulating and it's troubling that Murtha hasn't responded in kind. With the DCCC and NRCC (as well as right-wing Vets for Freedom) jumping in with last minute ad buys, and with Murtha making a pitch for money to Move On members, we at SSP feel there's enough cause for concern here to downgrade this race to "Likely Democratic."
Remember that William Russell is one of the 'defrauder' candidates raising funds through shadowy direct mail firm BMW Direct. Josh Marshall returned to this story yesterday, finding that Russell is actually pocketing a fair bit of money ($1.1 million, out of $2.5 million raised) even after paying for BMW's unusually large fees. That $1.1 million is still much less than the $2 million that Murtha has spent, though.
As for the other bit players in this story, Dane & Associates is a Las Vegas-based automated pollster who, as best as I can tell from a quick Google of the tubes, has never made public any of its polls prior to this race. This poll was made public through grassrootsPA.com, a right-wing state blog that seems to aspire to be a local version of Drudge, based on its firehose-spew of news items and atrocious design sensibilities. The guy who actually paid for it, Glen Meakem, seems to be a Pittsburgh-area internet rich guy with his own Republican political aspirations, at least according to this puff piece from the right-leaning Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.
