The primary season gets underway in earnest this week, with contests in Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio tomorrow. Additionally, Utah's state GOP convention is on Saturday. Also note that North Carolina has a top-two run-off (scheduled for June 22nd) for any races where the leading candidate fails to clear 40% in the first round. (For a complete primary & run-off calendar, click here.) Below is a roundup of some of the key races to watch for:
IN-Sen(R): This may well be the most interesting primary on Tuesday. It's a true ground zero face-off between the establishment and the teabaggers. In one corner is Dan Coats, who couldn't get more bougie if he tried. Not only is he a former Senator, he's spent the last decade as a Washington lobbyist for a host of unsavory clients. In the other corner... well, there are two corners. One is occupied by certified nutball ex-Rep. John Hostettler, who is as allergic to raising money as he is to sanity. The latter quality has endeared him to the base, but the former is a big obstacle to, well, winning. Which leaves state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, who has been eating a good portion of Hostettler's lunch - among other things, he's secured the endorsement of Jim DeMint, the patron saint of hopeless right-wing primary candidates. There's been precious little polling of the race, but what we've seen indeed suggests that Stutzman and Hostettler are splitting the crazies, which could allow Coats to sneak through with a very underwhelming vote total. This is one of those races where it's just hard for a Democrat to say who we'd be better off with as our opponent - they're all great! (David)
IN-02(R): Most people have assumed that state Rep. Jackie Walorski - "Wacky Jackie" to those who know her best - will be the GOP's nominee in the 2nd, as she was the NRCC's prize pick and she's well-known (as a former local TV news reporter and a member of GOP leadership in the state House). She still faces a challenge from Jack Jordan, the president of the Bremen school board. Despite a long stint as an executive at local pharma company Eli Lilly, Jordan seems to be working the angry average-guy angle, and if there's a year to be doing that, it's this year. (Crisitunity)
IN-03(R): Republican incumbent Mark Souder, a notorious under-performer in this deeply Republican district, may finally be running out of rope. A recent SUSA poll only gave Souder a 35-29 edge over auto dealer Bob Thomas, with attorney and former Dan Coats staffer Phil Troyer gobbling up nearly 20%. One way or the other, though, Souder's time in Congress is rapidly coming to a close -- he recently told Brian Howey that he's strongly inclined to retire in 2012 if he survives this dogfight. The winner of this pie fight gets to face '06 Democratic nominee Tom Hayhurst, a physician and former Fort Wayne city councilor. (James)
IN-04(R): With incumbent Republican Steve Buyer making this term his last in this deeply Republican suburban donut district, the GOP primary is where it's at. Secretary of State Todd Rokita may think he has control of the two turntables and the microphone in this race, but state Sen. Brandt Hershman has been raising a respectable sum of cash - and has Buyer's endorsement. State Sen. Mike Young is also in the mix, but his fundraising is barely existent. (J)
IN-05(R): If there was ever a year to give GOP Rep. Dan Burton's ass the boot, it's this one. After winning a surprisingly close primary contest against former Marion County Coroner John McGoff, four viable Republicans have stepped up to challenge Burton this year - including McGoff again. Joining them are state Rep. Mike Murphy, ex-state Rep. Luke Messer, and former Dan Quayle/Dan Coats staffer Brose McVey. With a field chopped up in so many ways, Burton just may survive. (J)
IN-08(R): Republicans were caught off guard in this district after Democrats managed to beam up incumbent Rep. Brad Ellsworth to the Senate race, and they lack a well-known name to take advantage of this open seat. However, NRCC-types like surgeon Larry Buschon, who has managed to bank a decent amount of coin for his bid. However, he'll have to fight through a field crowded with seven other candidates, including teabagger fave Kristi Risk. The theory swirling around the tubes is that, since this district is ground zero for John Hostettler nut-wing Republicans, Hoss's Senate campaign may excite enough 'baggers to threaten Buschon. It'd be surprisng if this one plays out that way, though. (J)
IN-09(R): Douchebag ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel is making his fifth crack at this seat, but he's facing somewhat stiff competition in the primary from attorney Todd Young, who seems to be the favorite of an establishment tired of the retread Sodrel. Also waiting in the wings is teabagger Travis Hankins, who has raised enough scrilla to keep himself in the game. (J)
NC-Sen(D): North Carolina Democrats will head to the polls to give either Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham, and attorney Ken Lewis the right to take on anonymous frosh GOP Sen. Richard Burr in November. One of these candidates will need to break the 40% barrier in order to avoid a June runoff. While no one has polled close to that marker yet, local boy Tom Jensen is betting that one of Cunningham (the man with the money) or Marshall (the name you know) will cross that barrier. (J)
NC-08(R): Republicans have been licking their chops over the chance to dethrone Larry Kissell after just one term in the House, but their field of candidates is decidedly second-tier. Businessman Tim d'Annunzio has spent nearly $1 million, making him something of a favorite - but he's also racked up a long list of unflatteringincidents on the campaign trail that suggest his campaign, though well-funded, is completely unhinged. D'Annuzio will face ex-sportscaster Harold Johnson, retired Army Col. Lou Huddleston, and engineer Hal Jordan in the primary. It wouldn't be a shock to see this one go to a runoff. (J)
NC-11(R): This one may not rank very highly on the GOP's target list, but Republicans have a number of warm bodies in the race against sophomore Dem Rep. Heath Shuler, in case things get interesting. Businessman Jeff Miller and ophthalmologist Dan Eichenbaum have both spent over $100K on their campaigns as of mid-April, while Hendersonville Mayor Greg Newman is running on spare change and a pocketful of dreams. (J)
OH-Sen(D): Two Democrats are fighting for the right to take on Republican Rob Portman, the former congressman and Bush budget director: Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Fisher, who's enjoyed a sizable fundraising edge as well as support from the DSCC, has seen his lead expand a good deal in recent public polling. Turnout will probably be low, which always increases unpredictability, so it may not be quite a done deal - but Fisher is looking pretty good. (D)
OH-02(D): The choice for Dems is between Surya Yalamanchili, a former star of the reality show "Apprentice," and novelty playing-cards mogul David Krikorian, who took 18% as an independent in 2008. "Chili," as he is known, has not raised very much but appears to have consolidated the support of much of the local establishment (including endorsements from the past two Dem nominees in the district, Vic Wulsin and Paul Hackett). Meanwhile, Krikorian (a self-described "Reagan conservative") seems to have ticked a few people off and apparently mocked his opponent's name at a recent campaign event. Not pretty. (D)
OH-02(R): Jean Schmidt, who hasn't been in Congress all that long, has faced serious primary challenges in both of her re-election campaigns, escaping by just 5% in 2006 and a somewhat more respectable 18% in 2008. Part of the reason Schmidt survived both times is because of the split field facing her. The same is true this year. Warren County commissioner Mike Kilburn is probably Schmidt's most legitimate challenger, but Some Dudes Debbi Alsfelder and Tim Martz are also in the race. Kilburn has only raised $30K, though, while Schmidt has spent more than $400 grand. Still, with anti-incumbent sentiment running as high as it has in ages, and with Schmidt being Schmidt, I suppose you never know. (D)
OH-16(R): Businessman and former smalltown mayor Jim Renacci is the NRCC's favorite here, and he's raised over half a million to date (plus he's given himself a $120K loan). But he's facing a challenge from his right in the form of Matt Miller, a former Ashland County Commissioner. Miller is no run-of-the-mill teabagger. In 2006, he pulled in 42% of the vote against incumbent Rep. Ralph Regula (who was running what would be his last race). And in 2008, with the seat open, Miller came within 5 points of snatching the nomination from establishment-preferred state Sen. Kirk Schuring. Against this history, Renacci has already spent $500K to Miller's tiny $24K. An upset is a definite possibility here. The winner takes on freshman Rep. John Boccierri. (D)
OH-18(R): In a somewhat similar scenario, state Sen. Bob Gibbs is the GOP bigs' favorite to challenge sophomore Rep. Zack Space. Classically, this means that Gibbs is hated by the teabag set, and he faces some real opposition, especially given his un-awesome fundraising. Fred Dailey, the 2008 nominee who got splattered by Space 60-40, is running, and he's been howling loudly about the alleged "favoritism" the establishment has shown toward Gibbs. The other notable candidate is Jeanette Moll, who lost to Dailey in the primary last cycle and has run radio ads attacking Gibbs as a tax-increasing libruhl. Both this race and the contest in the 16th CD ought to provide an interesting read on how big the split really is between the grassroots and the powers-that-be in the Republican Party. (D)
UT-Sen(R): Saturday is D-Day for Bob Bennett, who seems poised to become the first incumbent member of the Senate to fall this year. Oddly, though, the voters may not even get to take the chance to take their anger out on him, because he may not be able to make it out of the state Republican convention onto the primary ballot. In fact, Bennett would probably prefer that the broader population of primary voters, rather than the right-wing activists who dominate the convention, decide his fate. That's because a variety ofpolls ofconvention delegates suggest that Bennett will be hard pressed to even make it to the final round of balloting (where Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater seem to poll better). And even if Bennett somehow does make it to the final round against Lee, Lee is likely to consolidate all the anti-Bennett votes and clear the 60% mark needed to nail down the GOP nomination without a primary. Bennett is by no means a moderate, but he's guilty of occasionally trying to legislate in conjunction with Democrats, which in this climate means he's likely to get his walking papers. (C)
KY-Sen: Obnoxious theocrat James Dobson is endorsing establishment dude Trey Grayson over weirdo Rand Paul. It feels like it's gotten late early around here, with Grayson badly trailing in the last few polls, so you gotta wonder whether this or anything else can make much of a difference.
NV-Sen: According to Reid Wilson, the Tea Party Express (the political action wing, such as it is, of the teabaggers) says they'll spend $100 to $150K on behalf of wingnut favorite Sharron Angle. Angle's trailed pretty badly in most polling, though.
OH-Sen: With Ohio's primary around the corner, the Hotline is reporting that the DSCC will apparently step into the race on Lee Fisher's behalf. The not-terribly-well-funded Fisher is facing off against the almost-penniless Jennifer Brunner, but apparently Bob Menendez doesn't want to take any chances.
WI-Sen: One-time beer baron Dick Leinenkugel officially decided to join the now-crowded GOP field hoping to take on Sen. Russ Feingold. Leinenkugel's chief problem appears to be the fact that he just resigned as the governor's Commerce Secretary... and the governor of Wisconsin is Jim Doyle, a Democrat. The Kugel's new opponents were, needless to say, quick to point this out.
AZ-Gov: A couple of tidbits from a PPP poll that is slated to be released later today:
• Brewer has seen a significant improvement in her job approval numbers with Republicans. When we looked at the state in September she was under water even with voters of her own party, as 37% of them expressed disapproval of her job performance while only 28% felt she was doing a good job. Now 54% of Republicans approve of her and only 27% disapprove, so she's seen a good deal of improvement on that front, which should be particularly helpful for her prospects of winning nomination for a full term against a crowded field of primary opponents.
• At the same time Democratic candidate Terry Goddard leads Brewer 71-25 with Hispanics. That may seem ho hum, but consider this: Barack Obama only won Hispanic voters in the state by a 56-41 margin. So Goddard's outperforming him by more than 30 points there. And on our September poll Goddard was up just 53-33 with Hispanics so it's a 26 point improvement on the margin even relative to that.
FL-22: Combustible Republican Allen West is flashing an internal poll (from Wilson Research Strategies) which allegedly has him up 44-42 over incumbent Dem Ron Klein.
IN-09: Todd Young, seeking the GOP nod against ultra-retread Mike Sodrel, has a new ad up on TV, trying to paint himself as the "true conservative" choice. To CQ's credit, they asked how much is being spent on the ad. To the Young campaign's discredit, they declined to say.
MI-01: The Republican field in this race is getting' mighty crowded here, too. GOP state Sen. Jason Allen, who is term-limited, is the latest to seek the Republican nod to replace Bart Stupak.
Fundraising: CQ has a handy chart of pre-primary fundraising filings in the three states which have primaries next week: Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Immigration: The Hill surveys the races out West where Arizona's new immigration law may bolster Latino turnout - and help Dems. Jon Ralston notes that Brian Sandoval, the GOP's would-be savior in the NV-Gov race, has come out in favor of the law. This could all get very ugly - well, even uglier than it already is.
I thought it would be interesting to use Dave's Redistricting App to show that it was possible to create minority-majority districts in places that people might not necessarily expect, yet are indeed possible. I know that most of these districts will probably never be created, but it was an interesting chance to see what districts could be created. Technically, the definition of a majority-minority district according to the Supreme Court is any district that is less than 50% white (a coalition district), not necessarily a majority for one specific group. So some of these districts are +50% for one group, such as black or Hispanic, others have a plurality for another group, while others are just less than 50% white. So here are some of the districts I looked at:
California
Racial stats: 51% Asian, 29% white, 12% Hispanic, 4% other, 3% black
This is an Asian majority district in the Bay Area. While several current districts have an Asian plurality with current Census data, none of them have an Asian majority. This district would probably elect an Asian representative, most likely Rep. Mike Honda, who already represents many Asian areas in San Jose. I think this might be the first Asian majority district to ever exist outside of Hawaii.
It was actually possible to create a district in the Denver area that is majority-Hispanic. I linked Hispanic areas in the cities of Lakewood, Denver, Commerce City, Longmont, Brighton, and Greeley. Most of the voters come from Diana DeGette's 1st district and Ed Perlmutter's 7th district, although Jared Polis's 2nd district and Betty Markey's 4th district also lose some voters. I assume this district would elect a Democrat, possibly Diana DeGette, or possibly someone else.
By linking minority areas in the cities of Bridgeport, New Haven, Waterbury, New Britain, and Hartford, it was possible to create a district that is majority-minority in Connecticut. The district has the homes of John Larson and Rosa DeLauro, and takes in all of the major urban centers in the four eastern and central districts, so it would probably help Republicans in some of the other districts. While the district is less than 50% white, it is almost evenly split between the district's Hispanic and black populations, so it would be interesting to see what would happen in an election here.
By connecting heavily black areas in Indianapolis and Gary, it is possible to create a district that is plurality (yet not majority) black. I assume that Andre Carson would run here and win, although he would probably be challenged in the primary by Pete Visclosky. However, this district is more Indianapolis, so I think Carson would defeat Visclosky. This district would be incredibly Democratic either way, I'm sure Obama broke 75% here, maybe even 80%.
New Jersey
Racial stats: 39% white, 34% black, 21% Hispanic, 4% Asian, 2% other
This district connects minority areas in Atlantic City, Camden, and Trenton, and could probably be made even less white than this version is. Battle Royale between John Adler and Robert Andrews that would allow a minority candidate to slip through the primary? Thanks to andgarden for this idea.
New Mexico
1st district (blue): 53% Hispanic, 37% white, 5% Native American, 2% other, 2% black, 1% Asian
2nd district (green): 51% Hispanic, 42% white, 4% Native American, 1% black, 1% other, 1% Asian
3rd district (purple): 55% white, 22% Hispanic, 17% Native American, 2% other, 2% black, 1% Asian
As it stands now, all three New Mexico districts are majority-minority, although Dave's Redistricting App shows a Hispanic majority in only one district, the current NM-02, with updated 2008 numbers. So I wanted to see if it was possible to create not just one, but two Hispanic majority districts. I accomplished this task without too much difficulty, although I admit that it looks a bit strange. The 2nd district remains almost unchanged, although it picks up Torrance County and Hispanic-majority San Miguel County and loses the cities of Carlsbad and Hobbs. Meanwhile, the city of Albuquerque is split in half, along with the northern and eastern edges of the state. The Hispanic western half of Albuquerque as well as other Hispanic areas to the north and east of the 2nd district, as well as Santa Fe go into the 1st district. Meanwhile, the mostly white eastern half of Albuquerque is put into the sprawling 3rd district, which goes from Gallup and Farmington in the northwest all the way down to Hobbs in the southeast.
This would set up an interesting chain of events assuming the three Democratic congressmen currently in office (Heinrich, Teague, and Lujan) were still in office. No one would probably want to run in the new 3rd district, which is the white-majority district and the most Republican of the three. Teague would most likely run in the 2nd district, which is similar to his current district, although he would have to move as his home in Hobbs is now in the 3rd district. Meanwhile, Lujan and Heinrich would probably face off in the 3rd district, although I imagine Lujan would be the favorite since he represents much of this district already and there is now a Hispanic majority in the district. Meanwhile, a Republican would likely win the 3rd district seat, although perhaps I am wrong since New Mexico is a pretty Democratic state on the whole and this district still has significant Hispanic (22%) and Native American (17%) populations. This map would never occur with a Democratic legislature/governor, although perhaps the Republicans would attempt this if they controlled the state government, which is highly unlikely for now.
This district actually inspired the rest of the diary after I thought of it over the summer. This new majority-black district links African-American areas in the cities of Cincinnati, Dayton, and Columbus, and manages to look cleaner than even the current NC-12 (Mel Watt's district). It would almost certainly elect a black Democrat, and at the same time would take pressure off of other Republicans such as Pat Tiberi and Mike Turner. If Steve Chabot was elected in 2010, he would probably have to run against Boehner or Schmidt in the primary as this district would take up much of the current OH-01's turf in Cincinnati. If Steve Driehaus hung on in 2010, I think he would probably lose the primary to an African-American, although who knows what would happen.
Also, several people have said that they have been unable to keep OH-10 as a majority-black district in Cleveland without going into Akron.
The main way I did this was by taking a lot of the population from Dennis Kucinich's district, which puts his district 270,000 people in the red, which makes it almost a given his district will be combined with Sutton's district in my opinion.
I know that there are a lot of pockets of black and Hispanic voters in East Texas, so I wanted to see if it would be possible to make a minority-majority district in East Texas without going into Houston or Dallas at all. So I was able to make a meandering district that picks up minority voters in Galveston, Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Huntsville, Lufkin, Longview, Tyler, Texarkana, and Paris. It looks a bit like Cleo Fields' old district in neighboring Louisiana, although this district emerges at just 33% black. Still, that might be enough to put a black Democrat through the primary and into office, as the entire district is just 44% white overall and many of those white voters are Republicans and wouldn't vote in the Democratic primary anyway. I made this district before Dave put in the partisan data, so I haven't calculated the presidential numbers yet, although I imagine that it was probably in the low 50s for McCain, nowhere near as Republican as the current East Texas districts.
So I know that many of these districts are highly theoretical, but I still thought it was an interesting exercise in seeing what is possible and what may even be required by law someday as voting rights law evolves. Let me know what you think of these districts and this subject!
Sen. Evan Bayh will not run for re-election, a decision that will shock Democrats and Republicans alike in Indiana.
In prepared remarks, Bayh, 54, cited excessive partisanship that makes progress on public policy difficult to achieve as the motivation for his decision.
"After all these years, my passion for service to my fellow citizens is undiminished, but my desire to do so in Congress has waned," he said.
"My decision was not motivated by political concern," he added. "Even in the current challenging environment, I am confident in my prospects for re-election."
Among other things, Bayh cited the recent Senate vote against a bipartisan commission to deal with the deficit (which would likely have recommended big cuts in entitlements).
I have been working on (with some much appreciated help from pl515) a concept I'm calling PBI or Party Brand Index, as a replacement for PVI. PVI (Partisan Voting Index), which is measured by averaging voting percentage from the last two presidential elections in each house district, and comparing it to how the nation as a whole voted, is a useful shorthand for understanding the liberal v. conservative dynamics of a district. But in my opinion it falls short in a number of areas. First it doesn't explain states like Arkansas or West Virginia. These states have districts who's PVI indicates a Democrat would be in a hard position to win, never the less Democrats (outside of the presidency) win quite handily. Secondly why is that the case in Arkansas but not Oklahoma with similar PVI rated districts?
Secondly PVI can miss trends as it takes 4 years to readjust. The main purpose of Party Brand Index is to give a better idea of how a candidate does not relative to how the presidential candidate did, but rather compared to how their generic PARTY would be expected to perform. I'm calling this Party Brand Index.
The following are my thoughts on redistricting each of the Midwestern states-from Iowa and Missouri to Western Pennsylvania. I think in general, things look good for Dems right now, with the exceptions of Indiana and Missouri. But read on and tell me what you think.
In a "now for something completely different" moment, I decided to redistrict a state in such away where all districts would be maximally competitive. Indiana is ideal for this since it was extremely close in the last election and does not have large enough minority populations to invoke the VRA.
Now that all 9 Democratic pick-up states plus NE-02 have been analysed, I have also provided an exhaustive and most unique non-partisan summary of the pick-up states. I can guarantee you that there is information in this summary that you will not find anywhere else in this quality, clarity or combination.
There are a number of side-documents that go with the summary, plus links to all of the nine analyses and the GE 2008 final analysis for the entire Union.
I want to explain again that I have farmed this kind of thing out to Google Docs as it makes it easier for me to publish charts, tables and graphics. It is my hope that you will read the summary in it's entirety. There are surprises all over the place that only become apparent when one scratches under the surface and researches the GE 2008 at the county level, county for county. In the case of the 9.25 pick-ups, we are talking about 696 counties.
The summary is divided into 2 parts and all of this information is after the jump.
Happened across this while skimming Blue Indiana. Apparently, the Sheriff of Lake County, Roy Dominguez, announced when addressing a gathering of law school students his hopes to run for Governor of Indiana in 2012.
