Since the GOP controls redistricting in Indiana, it seems likely that Democrats will be forced down to two congressional districts in the new plan for the state (fortunately, Mitch Daniels seems like he won't do anything too crazy with redistricting, so we're unlikely to see any Indy-to-Gary Democratic vote dumps). This is what a hypothetical Democratic map of Indiana would look like.
In my previous Indiana diary, I attempted to create an 8-1 map in Indiana. It had the potential to be a dummymander, trying to take out both Peter Visclosky and Joe Donnelly. You can view that map here:
http://www.swingstateproject.c...
For this Indiana map, I tried to be much more reasonable, creating a heavy Democratic district that stretches from Gary to South Bend taking in Michigan City while taking out Donnelly in the process. The rest of the districts stay close to their current PVI, and should remain in the hands of the party that currently holds that district.
1st District: Current Rep: Peter Visclosky (D)
Racial breakdown: 59 W 22 B 14 H 2 A
Partisan lean: Safe D
This district is the Democratic vote sink in Northern Indiana. It takes in the heavy African-American areas in Lake County, swings over to pick up Michigan City, and finishes in South Bend. Donnelly could mount a primary challenge against Visclosky, but Visclosky has the more liberal record, and I would favor Visclosky to win that race.
2nd District: Current Rep: Joe Donnelly (D)
Racial breakdown: 86 W 3 B 9 H 1 A
Partisan lean: Safe R
I see no reason Republicans shouldn't take over this district easily. All the Democratic areas are removed from the district, and Republican leaning Elkhart County is added to the district.
3rd District: Current Rep: Marlin Stutzman (R)
Racial breakdown: 86 W 6 B 5 H 2 A
Partisan lean: Safe R
Not much to see here, Stutzman keeps his Ft. Wayne based.
4th District: Current Rep: Todd Rokita (R)
Racial breakdown: 88 W 4 B 5 H 3 A
Partisan lean: Safe R
The 4th is cleaned up a little bit, but should remain safely in the Republican column. The GOP heavy Indianapolis suburbs located in this district overwhelm Democratic votes in West Lafayette and Kokomo.
5th District: Current Rep: Dan Burton (R)
Racial breakdown: 86 W 6 B 4 H 3 A
Partisan lean: Safe R
The district is centered on the heavy Republican suburbs of Indianapolis. No problem for Burton.
6th District: Current Rep: Mike Pence (R)
Racial breakdown: 92 W 2 B 2 H 2 A
Partisan lean: Safe R
This district shifts south to take in heavy Republican Morgan and Johnson counties and also eats up liberal precincts in Bloomington. Will stay in the GOP column.
7th District: Current Rep: Andre Carson (D)
Racial breakdown: 55 W 31 B 11 H 2 A
Partisan lean: Safe D
NO CHANGE! (A Twilight Zone reference for those of you under 30). Carson's Indianapolis centered district is almost identical to the current district.
8th District: Current Rep: Larry Buschon (R)
Racial breakdown: 92 W 4 B 3 H 1 A
Partisan lean: Lean R is Ellsworth runs, Safe R if not.
This district stays very similar to the current district as well. Ellsworth is probably the only Democrat who could win here, but it would have to be an exceptional year for him to pull it off.
9th District: Current Rep: Todd Young (R)
Racial Breakdown: 93 W 2 B 3 H 1 A
Partisan lean: Safe R
By taking Bloomington out of this district, Young is now safe for as long as he wants to be in Congress. This is one of the most rural districts in Indiana.
I tried my hand at redistricting Indiana, since it's census data was out. I have two maps I created, one is a fair map (at least what the Republican legislature would call fair) and the other is a gerrymander. It's been said the Gov. Daniels doesn't want to go too crazy with the map, so we can't be too sure exactly how aggressive the GOP will get.
IN-2 is modified enough where a Republican can win it and it didn't take much to achieve that. Joe Donnelly would have probably lost this district in 2010. IN-5 changes a bit and gets more compact, but it's still solid Republican. IN-9 should be safer GOP by taking on Lawrence and Morgan Counties, while all other districts stay close to the same. Now, onto the gerrymander.
I mistakenly reversed the colors for the 4th and 5th districts, so I thought I'd point that out first. What I have done here is throw Visclosky and Carson together into a vote sink that sucks up the most strongly Democratic voting areas. To make this possible, I had to give Hammond to Rokita, but it wouldn't pose much of a problem for him, as there is plenty of strong Republican territory still attached. Burton picks up portions of LaPorte and Porter Counties, but still remains safe. IN-7 should have a Republican PVI now, as it takes in out portions of the county and some surrounding counties. IN-6 had minimal changes, while IN-8 and IN-9 are slightly better for Republicans.
I have doubts the GOP will become so aggressive as far as IN-1 goes, but I would not be surprised if something like this were at least attempted by the legislature. I like coming up with egregious gerrymanders, so it was drawn mostly for fun, but it should be kept in mind.
Now that it's 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in February or March and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and it's time to look at Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa.
With Republicans holding the trifecta in Indiana, I decided to try to eliminate 2 of the current Democratic held house seats. Because the 7th district is represented by a minority and is the closest district to minority-majority in Indiana, I left that district intact.
1st District-Blue-Current Rep: Peter Visclosky (D)
Racial Breakdown: 75 white 13 black 11 Hispanic 1 Asian
New District: McCain: 48 Obama: 51
Old District: McCain: 37 Obama: 62
This new district loses about half of Lake County and picks up several heavily Republican counties in the central part of the state. This district becomes 11 points more Republican, but yes, was still won by Obama. However, I would argue that aside from Illinois, Indiana was the state in which Obama most overperformed, and I would say this district would be won a GOP candidate in most years. New PVI around R+2.
Lake County:
2nd District-Green-Current Rep: Joe Donnelly (D)
Racial Breakdown: 89 white 5 black 5 Hispanic 1 Asian
New District: M: 50 O: 49
Old District: M: 45 O: 54
Joe Donnelly is a goner. By removing South Bend and St. Joseph County from his district and picking up some GOP heavy counties in the central part of the state, this district moves 5 points towards the GOP. New PVI around R+5.
3rd District-Purple-Current Rep: Marlin Stutzman (R)
Racial Breakdown: 83 white 9 black 6 Hispanic 2 Asian
New District: M: 51 O: 48
Old District: M: 56 O: 43
Stutzman can't be thrilled he has to take up part of St. Joseph county, but his Ft. Wayne based district is still solidly Republican. New PVI around R+6.
4th District-Red- Current Rep: Todd Rokita (R)
Racial Breakdown: 85 white 8 black 5 Hispanic 2 Asian
New District: M: 52 O: 47
Old District: M: 56 O: 43
The new 4th splits Lake County then moves south all the way towards the GOP heavy Indianapolis suburbs. It takes in Dem leaning Tippecanoe county and the college town of West Laffayette, but almost all other territory is heavy Republican. New PVI around R+8.
5th District-Yellow- Current Rep: Dan Burton (R)
Racial Breakdown: 89 white 5 black 3 Hispanic 2 Asian
New District: M: 53 O: 46
Old District: M: 59 O: 40
Dan Burton's district stays largely the same, except for picking up Dem leaning Madison County. Burton also picks up some swing areas of Marion County, but they are not enough to offset the GOP lean of the rest of this suburban district. New PVI around R+11.
6th District-Turquoise- Current Rep: Mike Pence (R)
Racial Breakdown: 88 white 5 black 6 Hispanic 1 Asian
New District: M: 54 O: 45
Old District: M: 53 O: 46
It may be confusing as to how this district gets more Republican despite picking up some Dem friendly areas of South Bend, however it loses Madison and Delaware counties while stretching down the eastern part of the state to pick up more GOP counties. Not the most compact district, but Pence (or someone else) is safe here. New PVI around R+13.
This district stays almost exactly the same. Centered on Marion County it is the most urban and Dem friendly in the state. Carson is safe. New PVI around D+15.
Indianapolis:
8th District-Light Purple-Current Rep: Larry Bucshon (R)
Racial Breakdown: 93 white 4 black 2 Hispanic 1 Asian
New District: M: 51 O: 47
Old District: M: 51 O: 47
The 8th is very similar to the old 8th. Swingy Evansville and Terry Haute are offset by the GOP leaning counties in between. Bucshon should have no trouble with this district unless Brad Ellsworth runs, in which case Bucshon would still probably be the slight favorite. New PVI around R+8.
9th District-Light Blue- Current Rep: Todd Young (R)
Racial Breakdown: 93 white 2 black 2 Hispanic 2 Asian
Old District: M: 50 O: 49
New District: M: 50 O: 49
The 9th stays almost the same as well. Liberal Bloomington is offset by the rest of the district. Young should be safe here, unless a Dem wave and the perfect Dem candidate align. New PVI around R+6.
So there you have it. Let me know what you think. Comments?
Redistricting will undoubtedly be a top - if not the top - topic around here over the next year or so. To get your engines started, here are a few early items from around the nation:
Indiana: Gov. Mitch Daniels released his list of legislative priorities for 2011, and it looks like he's trying to burnish his bi-(or non-)partisan cred with this plank:
"Indiana must have a fair redistricting based on geographic and community of interest lines - not politics. And I'll only sign one that meets that test."
Daniels' commitment will be seriously tested on this part of his platform, seeing as the GOP now controls both houses of the state lege (in addition to the governor's mansion, of course). Incoming House speaker Brian Bosma also claims he's a supporter of such reforms. We shall see.
Alabama: Meanwhile, down in Alabama, Republicans also control the trifecta - and seeing as it's their first time, they're licking their chops. As the Birmingham News puts it:
The likely result is a new congressional map that protects all six Republican congressmen and keeps intact the majority black district home to the only Democrat, according to U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Saks.
Illinois: The upper hand is on the other foot in Illinois, one of the few redistricting bright spots for Dems. With Team Blue in charge of the trifecta here - and the Prairie State on track to lose a seat in reapportionment - the only question is which Republican freshman will get tossed in the woodchipper. Sadly, we have quite a few to pick from: Randy Hultgren, Adam Kinzinger, Bobby Schilling, Jim Walsh, and Bob Dold! But it'll still be satisfying to see one of these guys get axed. (And if we're really lucky, two of `em will get tossed into a single district together.)
New Jersey: For whatever reason, New Jersey chooses to be a freak state, holding its state-level elections in odd-numbered years. This is good news for horserace bloggers, but probably a pain in the ass for the folks in charge of drawing state lege district lines. They have to produce a map by Feb. 1 - which is barely a month after the Census Bureau will releases its state-level population data, and a month or so before they release redistricting-level data. In any event, I suggest you read the linked story, which details how Dems succeeded in getting a very favorable map ten years ago - circumstances which are unlikely to obtain this time around.
Dave's Redistricting App: I realize there are quite a few new SSP members these days, so it's possible not everyone is familiar with the awesome (and free!) Dave's Redistricting App. It does exactly what it sounds like it ought to do - you can draw and re-draw maps to your heart's content. The eponymous Dave often stops by in comments and with diaries of his own, in case you ever have questions. He's also always looking for assistance in compiling partisan data for the app, so if you want to help improve the program, please click the link to find out how!
Since so much has recently happened in Indiana, I thought I'd give my impressions of where we're at now. I certainly look forward to the input of the several other Hoosier members here, Democrat and Republican.
Now, take what I'm saying here with a grain of salt, in that a year ago I predicted a boring, "nothing to see here" 2010 political year in Indiana. Guess I kind-of missed the mark there, but in my defense, no one else saw: Evan Bayh's retirement, Steve Buyer's wife's illness, or Mark Souder's inability to keep it in his pants. So, where do I think we stand now?
9:51PM: Well, this thread is getting a bit obese. Let's move this discussion over here.
9:45PM: Get ready for a runoff between Elaine Marshall (37%) and DSCC fave Cal Cunningham (27%) in North Carolina.
9:43PM: With half the vote in, Krikorian leads Yalamanchili by 40-34.
9:38PM: So, er, looks like we jumped to conclusions a bit in IN-09 - Hankins is now fewer than 300 votes behind Young. But it still looks like Young is favored.
9:37PM: Risk loses Kamchatka. The AP calls IN-08 for Larry Bucshon. (Hey teabaggers -- vote for Trent out of spite!)
9:35PM: The AP calls OH-02 for Jean Schmidt. She scored 62% of the vote this time.
9:33PM: Unreal. Looks like Dan Burton is gonna live again -- he's at 29.7% of the vote, just over 2000 votes head of Luke Messer with 4 precincts outstanding. What a pathetic showing for Burton!
9:25PM: Despite Travis Hankins' exciting late surge, Todd Young has pulled away with an almost 2K vote lead. Less than 10% of the vote is outstanding, which means that fewer than 5K more ballots are still out there. Almost impossible to make up that gap. (And incidentally, Mike Sodrel pulled back into second place.)
9:22PM: Elaine Marshall's share of the vote keeps slipping downward. She's now just above 37%.
9:09PM: With 477 of 587 precincts in, Todd Young leads Travis Hankins by 225 votes in IN-09.
9:03PM: With 9.5% of the vote in, Lee Fisher leads Jennifer Brunner by 56-44.
9:00PM: I note that Dan Coats won his nomination with about the same percentage as Alexi Giannoulias won his.
8:53PM: Whoa, check out IN-09 -- Young leads teabagger Travis Hankins by 34-33, with 30% for Sodrel. Still about a fifth of the vote left to count there.
8:51PM: Risk is now back up by 31-29 in IN-08, but there are still 71 Bucshon-friendly precincts outstanding in Evansville left to count.
8:49PM: Whoa mama joe! In Ohio, it's still 52-48 Fisher with 7% of the vote in.
8:47PM: Worth noting: Neither Kissell nor Shuler's primary opponent filed an FEC report, and Shuler's guy doesn't even have a contribution link on his website.
8:46PM: The problem for Dan Burton? He has no strongholds left, and his Hamilton County performance is quite weak. This should be very close.
8:45PM: Buschon now up by 31-30 based on his strength in Evansville. 2/3rds of the vote now in.
8:43PM: Almost 2/3rds of the votes are now counted in IN-05, and Burton leads Messer by 31-28. The Hamilton County votes, which are starting to come in now, are split 25-25-25 for Burton, Messer, and McGoff.
8:41PM: The AP calls the Indiana Senate primary for Dan Coats.
8:41PM: Note that both Shuler and Kissell voted against healthcare -- are we seeing some fallout there?
8:38PM: NC-11: And Heath Shuler is up just 57-43 against Aixa Wilson.
8:37PM: NC-08: Dem Rep. Larry Kissell up just 60-40 against challenger from the left with 15% in.
8:36PM: A bit over half of the vote is in, and Dan Burton leads Luke Messer by 32-30.
8:29PM: Risk only up 12 votes in IN-08, 30-30, she'll continue to lose ground as more of Vanderburgh County comes in.
8:26PM: Harold Johnson leads D'Annuzio by 35-34 in NC-08. Looks like a runoff is a live possibility here.
8:25PM: Now that a bit over a quarter of the vote is in, Elaine Marshall leads Cal Cunningham by 38-28. Ken Lewis is at 15.
8:22PM: With a bit over half the vote counted in IN-09, Young leads Sodrel by 37-31, while teabagger Travis Hankins is close behind with 29%.
8:21PM: Teabagger Kristi Risk now only leads Buschon by 300 votes in IN-08, now that Evansville (Buschon's home base) is starting to report.
8:19PM: In NC-08, Harold Johnson leads businessman Tim D'Annuzio by 37-34. Looks like that's just the early vote, though.
8:18PM: NC-10: McHenry comfortably ahead with a small number of votes in, 60-25.
8:16PM: Check out OH-16, where Matt Miller is leading NRCC fave Jim Renacci by 72-23 thanks to some early votes in in Ashland, his home county.
8:13PM: The bean counters at SSP labs think that a runoff is likely in North Carolina. There's a huge chunk of eastern NC that's largely African-American where Ken Lewis is going to do better than he's been doing right now, as well as Durham/Mecklenburg counties outstanding.
8:11PM: With under half of the vote in, teabagger Kristi Risk leads DC-backed surgeon Larry Buschon by 31-26. Wow!
8:10PM: The AP has called IN-02 for Wacky Jackie Walorski.
8:09PM: IN-09: Todd Young leads Mike Sodrel 38-33, with Travis Hankins back at 26.
8:08PM: In North Carolina, the Senate race is now 39M-27C-16L, but as Tom Jensen points out, the minor candidates may force this into a runoff.
8:04PM: With just 11 precincts in (but also a big chunk of votes in from Franklin County), Fisher leads Brunner by 52-48 in Ohio.
8:00PM: The AP has declared GOP Rep. Mark Souder the winner of his primary. I'm kind of surprised!
7:57PM: Dan Burton is in a very tight race. With 40% in, he leads Messer by 33-31.
7:56PM: IN-04: Rokita crushing 45-18 with about a third of the vote in.
7:56PM: IN-03: Souder very likely to hold on - 49-34 with 72% in.
7:55PM: IN-02: Wacky Jackie now up 57-31 with 43% in.
7:48PM: With the early vote in North Carolina in, Elaine Marshall leads Cal Cunningham by 39.5% to 26%.
7:42PM: Kristi Risk now ahead by just 15 votes in IN-08 (216 of 635 precincts reporting).
7:40PM: With 28% of precincts in statewide, Dan Coats leads Marlin Stutzman by 42%-30%.
Polls have now closed in most of Indiana, so we'll start our evening of liveblogging here (we'll touch bases in North Carolina and Ohio as polls close there in another hour and a half).
7:41PM: We're moving the party over to our new thread.
7:36PM: Burton leads Messer by 38-30 with 124 of 617 precincts in.
7:32PM: Wow -- teabagger Kristi Risk leads NRCC fave Larry Buschon in IN-08 by less than 50 votes with under a third of precincts reporting.
7:30PM: Polls are now closed in North Carolina and Ohio -- we'll have a new results thread up for all three states shortly. Also, all of the polls closed in western Indiana half an hour ago.
7:25PM: With 86 out of 587 precincts in, Young is back up over Sodrel by 44-40. In IN-02, with about a fifth of the precincts in, Wacky Jackie leads Jack Jordan by 47-37. And Mark Souder now has a 48-35 lead over Bob Thomas with a little under half of the vote in.
7:15PM: Some more House updates: Walorski leads Jordan by 49-36 in IN-02 (with 93 precincts in), Souder is back up over Thomas by 43-37 (55 precincts in), Rokita is crushing in IN-04, Burton leads Messer by 38-27 (39 precincts in), Buschon leads Risk by 30-26 in IN-08, and Sodrel leads Young by just 13 votes in IN-09.
7:00PM: 21 precincts are now in, and Mark Souder has fallen behind Bob Thomas by 32 votes.
6:50PM: With 92 precincts reporting in IN-08, NRCC fave Larry Buschon is posting quite a weak-assed performance. He's at 33%, with 26% for teabagger Kristi Risk -- and the rest split among six different flavors of crazy.
6:46PM: With 111 precincts now in statewide, Dan Coats leads the way with 40%. Hostettler has 26%, and Stutzman is close behind with 25%.
6:43PM: And keep an eye on IN-03! Incumbent Mark Souder leads Bob Thomas by only 39-37 with six precincts reporting.
6:40PM: There's only once precinct in from IN-05 so far, but keep your eye on this race. Luke Messer is currently leading incumbent Republican Dan Burton by 36-31.
6:33PM: 10 precincts are now in, and check this out -- Coats leads Stutzman by only 39-36 (with the Hos' at 17%).
6:28PM: Over in IN-02, Wacky Jackie Walorski leads Jack Jordan by a 57-36 margin -- just one precinct in, though.
6:16PM: With a single precinct reporting (out of 5306), Dan Coats leads John Hostettler by 38%-28%. Marlin Stutzman has 15%. In IN-09, Todd Young has a very early 51-37 lead over Mike Sodrel.
