Idaho Legislature PVIs (if anyone is interested)

by: IdahoSocialist

Fri Mar 25, 2011 at 6:27 AM EDT

District 2 (Shoshone County, Benewah County and part of Bonner County)
2004: Bush 62.6%, Kerry 35.7%
2008: McCain 59.3%, Obama 37.4%
Senator Joyce Broadsword (R), Representative Shannon McMillan (R), Representative R.J. Hardwood (R)

District 3 (Coeur d' Alene's suburbs, exurbia and rural areas, also my district!)
2004: Bush 71.3%, Kerry 27.3%
2008: McCain 67.7%, Obama 30.0%
Senator Steve Vick (R), Representative Vito Barbieri (R), Representative Phil Hart (R)

District 4 (Coeur d' Alene)
2004: Bush 59%, Kerry 39.4%
2008: McCain 53.3%, Obama 44.2%
Senator John Goedde (R), Representative Marge Chadderdon (R), Representative Kathleen Sims (R)

District 5 (more suburbia except it's a Spokane oriented one called Post Falls)
2004: Bush 69%, Kerry 29.2%
2008: McCain 64.9%, Obama 32.6%
Senator Jim Hammond (R), Representative Bob Nonini (R), Representative Frank Henderson (R)

District 6 (Latah County: home of the University of Idaho and nothing else besides a few sheep fucking peasants)
2004: Bush 49.5%, Kerry 48.0%
2008: Obama 51.3%, McCain 44.6%
Senator Dan Schmidt (D), Representative Tom Trail (R), Representative Shirley Ringo (D)

District 7 (Lewiston, a few small towns and a Nez Pearce reservation)
2004: Bush 62.2%, Kerry 36.6%
2008: McCain 58.1%, Obama 40.0%
Senator Joe Stenger (R), Representative Jeff Nessett (R), Representative John Rusche (D)

District 8 (Clearwater County, Lewis County, Idaho County and Valley County. Known for vast expanses of nothing)
2004: Bush 70.3%, Kerry 27.3%
2008: McCain 65.1%, Obama 31.8%
Senator Sheryl Nuxoll (R), Representative Ken A. Roberts (R), Representative Paul Shepard (R)

District 9 (Adams, Washington and Payette. No idea what exists here besides a Payette Lake)
2004: Bush 75.3%, Kerry 23.5%
2008: McCain 69.1%, Obama 28.4%
Senator Monty Pearce (R), Lawrence Denney (R), Judy Boyle (R)

District 10 (Boise's exurbs and suburbs)
2004: Bush 72.1%, Kerry 26.6%
2008: McCain 61.9%, Obama 35.8%
Senator John McGee (R), Representative Pat Taskugi (R), Darrell Bolz (R)

District 11 (Boise's exurbs and farmland)
2004: Bush 76.9%, Kerry 21.7%
2008: McCain 71.6%, Obama 25.8%
Senator Melissa Snyder (R), Representative Steven Thayn (R), Representative Carlos Bilbao (R)

District 12 (Nampa)
2004: Bush 72.5%, Kerry 26.5%
2008: McCain 61.5%, Obama 36%
Senator Curtis McKenzie (R), Representative Robert Shaffer (R), Representative Melissa Robinson (R)

District 13 (Boise suburbs)
2004: Bush 76.2%, Kerry 22.5%
2008: McCain 69.6%, Obama 29.9%
Senator Patti Longe (R), Representative Brent Crane (R), Representative Christy Perry (R)

District 14 (Eagle and parts of Meridian)
2008: McCain 62.8%, Obama 35.5%
Senator Chuck Winder (R), Representative Mike Moyle (R), Representative Reed DeMourdant (R)

District 15 (Meridian)
2004: Bush 64.0%, Kerry 34.8%
2008: McCain 53.0%, Obama 44.8%
Senator John C Andreason (R), Representative Lynn Luker (R), Representative Max Black (R)

District 16 (West Boise)
2004: Bush 55.2%, Kerry 43.5%
2008: Obama 53.0%, McCain 44.5%
Senator Les Bock (D), Representative Grant Burgoyne (D), Representative Elfreda Higgins (D)

District 17 (Boise Bench)
2004: Bush 50.1%, Kerry 46.7%
2008: Obama 56.6%, McCain 40.1%
Senator Eliott Werk (D), Representative Bill Killen (D), Representative Sue Chew (D)

District 18 (South Boise/Boise State University)
2004: Bush 54.7%, Kerry 46.8%
2008: Obama 52.7%, McCain 45.1%
Senator Mitch Toryanski (R), Representative Julie Ellsworth (R), Representative Phyllis King (D)

District 19 (Boise's Northend which is basically Idaho's mini Boulder, Colorado)
2004: Kerry 60.5%, Bush 37.8%
2008: Obama 67.9%, McCain 29.9%
Senator Nicole LeFavour (D), Representative Cherie Buckner-Webb (D), Brian Cronin (D)

District 20 (Meridian)
2004: Bush 74%, Kerry 25.1%
2008: McCain 62.7%, Obama 34.9%
Senator Shirley McKague (R), Representative Joe Palmer (R), Representative Marve Hagedorn (R)

District 21 (Kuna, Bill Sali's old district)
2004: Bush 73.6%, Kerry 26.5%
2008: McCain 63.5%, Obama 34.2%
Senator Russel Fulcher (R), Representative John Woude (R), Representative Clifford Bayer (R)

District 22 (Mountain Home and Boise County)
2004: Bush 78.3%, Kerry 20.3%
2008: McCain 66.3%, Obama 31.3%
Senator Tim Corder (R), Representative Rich Wills (R), Representative Pete Neilsen (R)

District 23 (Owhyee and the Magic Valley)
2004: Bush 76.7%, Kerry 22.0%
2008: McCain 70.1%, Obama 27.9%
Senator Brett Bracket (R), Representative Jim Patrick (R), Representative Stephen Hartgen (R)

District 24 (Twin Falls)
2004: Bush 73.4%, Kerry 25.4%
2008: McCain 66.0%, Obama 31.4%
Senator Lee Heider (R), Representative Leon Smith (R), Representative Sharon Block (R)

District 25 (Sun Valley)
2004: Bush 54.8%, Kerry 43.8%
2008: Obama 49.6%, McCain 48.0%
Senator Jim Donoval (R), Representative Michael Stennet (D), Representative Wendy Jaquet (D)

District 26 (Jerome County, Minidoka County)
2004: Bush 79.6%, Kerry 19.4%
2008: McCain 72.6%, Obama 24.9%
Senator Dean Cameron (R), Representative Joan Stevenson (R), Representative Maxine Bell (R)

District 27 (Cassia, Oneida and Power counties)
2004: Bush 80.8%, Kerry 17.8%
2008: McCain 75.8%, Obama 21.6%
Senator Denton Darrington (R), Representative Scott Bedke (R), Representative Fred Wood (R)

District 28 (Bingham County)
2004: Bush 76.7%, Kerry 21.9%
2008: McCain 71.2%, Obama 25.8%
Senator Steven Blair (R), Representative Dennis Lake (R), Representative Jim Marriott (R)

District 29 (parts of Pocatello and Chubbuck)
2004: Bush 63.0%, Kerry 35.8%
2008: McCain 56.5%, Obama 41.0%
Senator Diane Bilyeu (D), Ken Andrus (R), Jim Guthrie (R)

District 30 (Pocatello, Idaho State University)
2004: Bush 57.3%, Kerry 41.1%
2008: McCain 48.6%, Obama 48.2%
Senator Edgar Malepai (D), Representative Roy Lacey (D), Representative Elaine Smith (D)

District 31 (Bear Lake, Franklin, Caribou Bonneville and Teton counties)
2004: Bush 80.9%, Kerry 17.8%
2008: McCain 73.9%, Obama 23.0%
Senator Robert Geddes (R), Representative Marc Gibbs (R), Representative Tom Loerstcher (R)

District 32 (Bonneville County)
2004: Bush 80.6%, Kerry 18.2%
2008: McCain 72.6%, Obama 23.4%
Senator Dean Mortimer (R), Representative Janice McGeachin (R), Representative Erik Simpson (R)

District 33 (Idaho Falls)
2004: Bush 71.2%, Kerry 27.5%
2008: McCain 61.9%, Obama 35.4%
Senator Bart Davis (R), Representative Jeff Thompson (R), Representative Linden Bateman (R)

District 34 (BYU-Idaho/Rexburg)
2004: Bush 90.7%, Kerry 8.1%
2008: McCain 84.0%, Obama 13.7%
Senator Brent Hill (R), Representative Mack Shirley (R), Representative Dell Raybould (R)

I skipped district 35. Here's a map of the districts: http://legislature.idaho.gov/a... I'll have an explanation diary coming up with a crash course on Idaho politics for the n00bs.  

AZ, ID, and WI: Population by CD

by: Crisitunity

Thu Mar 10, 2011 at 6:41 PM EST

Like the other border states, Arizona has become signficantly more Hispanic over the decade, up to 29.6% Hispanic now compared with 25.3% in 2000. The Hispanic growth wasn't concentrated any one particular place: that 4% increase was closely mirrored in all the districts. The 2nd had the biggest Hispanic shift, at 7% (from 14% to 21%), while the 1st had the smallest shift, at 3% (from 16% to 19%). That dissipation of the Hispanic vote means that it's not terribly likely that a third VRA seat will be carved out, despite the fact that Hispanics are close to 1/3 of the state's population.

I'm not the first one to observe that Idaho redistricting is pretty much drama-free. Nevertheless, there's at least something interesting going on here in this small but fast-growing state: growth is very heavily concentrated in suburbs and exurbs west of Boise. For instance, the state's 2nd and 3rd biggest cities used to be Pocatello and Idaho Falls; now they're Meridian (a large suburb west of Boise) and Nampa (in Canyon County, the next county to the west). That means that the districts are kind of lopsided, and it looks like much of Boise proper, currently split down the middle, will wind up being given to ID-02. While Boise is certainly the most urbane part of the state, and it should tip the balance a bit in the blue direction (as for the past decade, the two districts have had almost identical PVIs), the 2nd should still be a long way away from somewhere the Dems can compete. (Idaho's target is 783,791, up from 646K in 2000. Look for it to get a 3rd seat in 2020.)

Wisconsin held steady at eight seats this year, and even its districts held pretty steady, too. Its target is 710,873, up from 670K in 2000. That means the only district that lost population is the Milwaukee-based 4th and even it only lost a few thousand since 2000. The main area of growth is the state's other blue stronghold, the Madison-area 2nd (must have something to do with THE BLOATED STATE GOVERNMENT AND THOSE GREEDY PUBLIC EMPLOYEES MULTIPLYING LIKE LOCUSTS!!!!1!!), which needs to give about 40,000 people to the 4th (although they'll have to pass through the suburban 5th, which sits smack dab between them). Also, it looks like Dairyland is gaining a little at the expense of the North Woods, as the 3rd will need to pick up 20K from GOP freshman Sean Duffy's 7th. Although the GOP controls the redistricting process here, thanks to their House gains in 2010 and the overall uniform swinginess of the rural counties, they're probably just going to be playing defense with their map.

SSP Daily Digest: 3/4

by: DavidNYC

Fri Mar 04, 2011 at 8:51 AM EST

• HI-Sen: Former part-term Rep. Charles Djou (I'd say we hardly knew ye, but I think we got to know him pretty well) says he's considering a senate bid, but it sounds like he wants to wait and see what his fellow Republican (and next-door neighbor) Linda Lingle does first.

• MO-Sen: Remember when Claire McCaskill said she'd co-sponsor Bob Corker's CAP Act - the bill designed to take an axe to, among other things, Social Security? Now she's telling her constituents in a letter that she'll "vote against" any cuts to SS. So either she's backtracking on her idiotic support of Corker's bill, or she somehow thinks this pledge doesn't conflict with that piece of legislation. In other words, she's come to her senses - or she's talking out of both sides of her mouth. We'll see.

• NV-Sen: The committee investigating John Ensign's affair-and-hush-money scandal just interviewed Sen. Tom Coburn, which Politico claims is a sign that the inquiry is "intensifying," but who knows - the whole thing could be winding down, especially since the Justice Department pathetically dropped their entire case against Ensign. I'd be surprised if any serious punishment is meted out here.

• AZ-07: Some Dude Gabriela Saucedo Mercer announced a challenge to Rep. Raul Grijalva (D). Saucedo Mercer volunteered for fellow Republican Ruth McClung last time, who herself said after the election that she will "probably" run again.

• CA-36: This can't be the sort of news Republicans were hoping for: Redondo Beach Mayor Mike Gin said he's joining the field of candidates hoping to succeed the now-departed Jane Harman. Why is this a problem? Because Gin is now the second non-Some Dude Republican running - Redondo's elected city attorney, Mike Webb, is already in the race. If the GOP ever had any, any chance whatsoever of sneaking out a win here, it could only have happened with a single candidate to unite behind. Now, it seems impossible for one of their own to make it into a runoff, unless the Democratic field gets absurdly fractured.

• MD-02: Huh. So it looks like fifth-term Dem Rep. Charles Albert Ruppersberger III - you know him as "Dutch" - already has a non-Some Dude opponent. Republican state Delegate Patrick McDonough (who is also a talk radio host) represents a reliably red district and has already managed to score Christine O'Donnell to headline a fundraiser for him. This district went 60% for Obama and 54% for Kerry, and I can't imagine the Dem-held legislature would risk making this seat any redder if Ruppersberger looked genuinely threatened, so McDonough will have a hell of a challenge.

• MI-12: Rep. Sandy Levin became the latest veteran Michigan Dem (along with Johns Dingell & Conyers, and Dale Kildee) to confirm that he'll seek another term.

• NY-26: Erie County Comptroller Mark Poloncarz has told Democratic leaders to drop his name from consideration as a possible candidate for the upcoming special election. Is it just me, or is it a little worrisome that we still seem to be so far away from choosing a nominee? Just another reason why we should have primaries for special elections in New York.

The legislature did just pass one small bit of elections reform: Once Gov. Cuomo signs the bill, special elections will now be held 70 to 80 days after their announcement by the governor (as opposed to 30 to 40 right now), to give county boards more time to handle military and overseas ballots. This was done to bring NY into better compliance with federal law, but still note that there is no specific timeframe in which a governor must actually call for a special - this law only applies to the time period after one has been called.

• OH-01: Cincinnati NAACP President Christopher Smitherman tells Dave Catanese that he thinks Cincinnati Mayor Mark Mallory is "floating the idea of a run" against Rep. Steve Chabot. Mallory is black, and Smitherman notes, of course, that President Obama will be at the top of the ticket. The current OH-01 is 29% black, as strong black turnout was responsible for Steve Chabot losing in 2008.

• IN-SoS: Republican Secretary of State Charlie White was just indicted on seven felony counts, "including voter fraud, perjury and theft." White is accused of intentionally voting in a precinct he didn't live in. Funny how after all their bogus charges of "voter fraud!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111111111," the one guy who actually gets hauled up on charges is nothing less than the guy responsible for ensuring the integrity of elections - and a Republican, to boot.

• Idaho: Due to a court challenge, which found Idaho's system of open primaries unconstitutional under the First Amendment, Idaho looks like it will be moving toward closed primaries - or at least, a setup where you have to register with the Republican Party in order to vote in GOP primaries.

• MS Redistricting: So it looks like Mississippi may be the first state in the nation to adopt any sort of actual redistricting map - not a surprise, seeing as the state holds legislative elections later this year. The state House will vote on its own map as early as this Friday. (Click here for the map, and click here for the demographic breakdowns.) Believe it or not, the state House is actually still run by the Democrats, and predictably, Republicans don't like their plan, calling it an incumbent protection plan for Dems. Still, it will likely pass - Dems insist all lawmakers have had a chance to give their input, and the GOP, which controls the state Senate, will need Democratic cooperation in the lower body to get their corresponding map approved.

• PA St. Sen.: Craziness - local Republicans are reportedly preparing for a special election in the 40th district to replace the seemingly-doomed state Sen. Jane Orie... whose corruption case just ended in a mistrial today. But it's not the kind of bad trial thingy a defendant typically roots for (i.e., a hung jury). Rather, the judge dismissed the jury because documents entered into evidence by the defense contained forged signatures. Said the judge to Orie's attorney: "Ray Charles could see that those signatures were doctored." So it seems like Orie may live to fry another day.

3 districts for Idaho - a look ahead to 2020 redistricting?

by: Englishlefty

Sun Jan 30, 2011 at 3:28 PM EST

On the other hand, at current growth rates there's an outside chance that Idaho will receive a third congressional district after 2020, and almost certainly after 2030. And that's where things get interesting.

Idaho is a fast-growing state. 6 counties saw growth of above 25% between April 2000 and July 2009, including the three largest counties of Ada, Canyon and Kootenai and for the state as a whole population increased by an impressive 19.5%.

But this growth is unevenly distributed, being much more notable in urban than in rural counties, higher in the Panhandle than in central and eastern Idaho and highest of all in the Boise-Nampa Metropolitan area in south-western Idaho.

Given that the growth is here and that the area will contain around half the state's population, it'd be natural to locate a third congressional district here.

Republicans would be unlikely to be keen, as whilst McCain won all but 3 small counties in the state, Obama's next best county was the state's biggest, Boise. If portions of this were combined with (the admittedly very conservative) fast-growing Canyon County to its north-west, you'd have a district a garden-variety of insane Republican could lose and not just a Bill Sali kind of insane Republican.

Yet whilst Republicans dominate the state, Idaho opted for bipartisan redistricting in the 1990s. Democrats and Republicans both name three representatives to a commission that draws the maps and with Republicans often divided between the lunatic fringe and more mainstream conservatives, Democratic power on the commission is even more disproportionate to their popular support than the numbers would suggest.

I therefore suggest than if Idaho receives a third seat in 2020, the commission will draw a very compact Boise-Meridian-Nampa-Caldwell district that would rival WA-7 as the smallest district in the northwest. This would likely be a fair fight district, and in retaliation Republicans would almost certainly try to reintroduce partisan redistricting.

Read on for the districts themselves and methodology.

Redistricting outlook: Idaho-Iowa

by: Nathaniel90

Sat Jan 22, 2011 at 12:30 PM EST

Previous diary on Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas
Previous diary on California, Colorado, and Connecticut
Previous diary on Florida, Georgia, and Hawaii

The rest below the fold...

The Rest of the West: Part 1

by: atdleft

Tue Dec 16, 2008 at 6:20 PM EST

About 2 weeks ago, we talked about the rising Democratic tide in The Southwest. Now, I want to discuss what's happening in The Northwest. Believe it or not, we have plenty of opportunities up north as well.

Want to come along with me as we look at where we can win in 2010 and beyond?

ID-01: Grant Drops Out, Endorses Minnick

by: James L.

Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 12:57 PM EDT

Former Micron executive Larry Grant said Thursday morning that he will not run for the U.S. House in Idaho's 1st congressional district.

Instead, Grant endorsed Walt Minnick, a former timber executive who ran for the U.S. Senate in 1996. [...]

Grant lost to Republican Bill Sali in the 2006 election and was under pressure from some in the Idaho Democratic Party to drop out this time.

Grant appeared at a news conference in Boise with Minnick and Democratic former Gov. Cecil Andrus.

This isn't very surprising.  Grant has had very little fundraising success in his second kick at the can (just $60K raised last year), while Minnick's been posting huge numbers (over $400K raised in the 4th quarter).

It's going to be a lot tougher to beat Sali this time, but hopefully Minnick's large cash reserves should make this nutter sweat.

ID-01 Larry Grant for Congress

by: blueandwhite31

Tue Apr 01, 2008 at 5:26 PM EDT

As a refresher, Larry ALMOST pulled off an upset of epic proportions by barely losing to extreme right-wing nutjob Bill Sali.  In 2006, by running a grassroots and netroots oriented campaign, he gained recognition amongst both communities and garned immense name recognition and popularity.  Alas, Larry lost the district by a slim margin of 50-45.  

Here is a quick summary of the district from plf515's Congressional round-up diary:

District: ID-01
Location Western ID, bordering OR, WA and MT including Boise
Representative Bill Sali (R)
First elected  2006
2006 margin 50-45
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 30-69
Notes on opponents Larry Grant raised about $750K to Sali's $1 million
Current opponents   Larry Grant
and
Rand Lewis (site down)
and
Walt Minnick
Sali is also being primaried
Demographics Tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 14th most Republican
Assessment Even for a Republican, Sali is crazy. Even for an Idaho Republican Sali is crazy.  He's really nuts.  He might even lose in this Republican stronghold (I hope he wins the primary)

Kentucky, Oklahoma, Idaho AFL-CIO Federations Roll Out Endorsements for Congress

by: Labor 2008

Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 4:37 PM EDT

(Cross-posted from the AFL-CIO Now Blog.)

The fight for a pro-working family government doesn’t end with the race for the White House. Around the country, union members in key states are looking to elect new members of Congress who will help turn around America.

ID-01: Andrus Endorses Minnick

by: James L.

Wed Nov 14, 2007 at 10:06 PM EST

At his announcement speech today, Minnick was joined by former Gov. Cecil Andrus, the last meaningful Democratic figure to hold office in Idaho:

"This is a man who can win in the fall; a man I trust and can be elected in November as Congressman from the first district," said former Idaho governor and Secretary of the Interior Cecil D. Andrus.

Andrus was introducing Walt Minnick, candidate for the Democratic nomination to the House of Representatives, in front of supporters and press this morning in front of the Idaho Historical Museum in downtown Boise.

Minnick's entry and Andrus' endorsement comes with this as a backdrop:

After Grant lost to Sali, Idaho Statesman political columnist Dan Popkey quoted a few Idaho Democrats who were angry with Larry Grant for running a lackluster campaign, squandering goodwill with unreturned phone calls and offers of help, not listening to campaign advisors and declining to campaign aggressively against Sali's far-right philosophies.

Some Democrats think Popkey's column opened the door for party members to talk about their disappointment with Grant, leaving room for a challenge primary.

While the ripest year to beat Sali was 2006, it's certainly a change of pace to see a three-way primary for a House seat in Idaho.  Perhaps this race could get interesting later down the line.