Even without Romney's star power, Risch has his own, very different campaign style.
At a senior American government class at Capital High School on Oct. 15, he paced across the front of the classroom. He spoke rapidly and energetically, peppered the 17- and 18-year-olds with questions and didn't always wait for their answers. He sometimes complimented them, once saying, "We weren't nearly as sophisticated as you kids are," but most of the time he tried to connect with the kids by giving them a hard time.
"Could you explain to me the tax shift?" asked the first boy in the class to raise his hand during the question and answer session.
"Yoooou're a Democrat," Risch retorted.
"No he's not," a girl in the back piped up.
"Only Democrats use that phrase, 'tax shift,'" Risch replied. "By the way, don't be afraid to ask questions of me," he said to the other students in the class. "They're not stupid questions like this one over here." (Emphasis added)
With the election less than 3 weeks away from us, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So what are the competitive races?
Again, just to be clear, I don't do predictions. Every time I do, horrible things happen. So I won't even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner. So, I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a legitimate chance of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything). The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/17-18, likely voters):
Walt Minnick (D): 35
Bill Sali (R-inc): 46
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±5%)
Sali is under 50%, so he's definitely in the danger zone, but this will be an uphill race for Walt Minnick. Most troubling is Minnick's favorability rating: 41-40. Those are some inexplicably high negatives for a challenger in a race that hasn't really heated up yet. Neither Sali nor the NRCC have gone up with negative ads against Minnick, while Minnick has been airing positive bio ads for quite some time. I'm at a loss to explain why nearly as many people view him unfavorably as they do favorably.
Up the ticket, McCain is beating Obama by a 59-32 margin, not an especially dramatic improvement for Team Blue over Kerry's 69-30 loss here in 2004.
UPDATE: The Minnick campaign releases a statement about this poll to SSP (via email):
Our internal polling has been consistently and dramatically different from the numbers released today. We are confident going forward to Election Day.
Mark Udall (D): 45
Bob Schaffer (R): 34
Bob Kinsey (G): 2
Doug Campbell (C): 3
(MoE: ±3.6%)
In response to the NRSC's internal from last week showing a one-point race for the open Senate seat in Colorado, the Udall camp releases their own internal showing an 11-point gap at the height of the GOP post-convention bounce. This poll is of mild interest in that it's the first poll I can think of that has polled the effect of third-party candidates on the race (the Green and the Constitution Party guy seem to cancel each other out).
Larry LaRocco (D): 30
Jim Risch (R): 58
(MoE: ±4.0%)
In other news from the Mountain West, Jim Risch has a big lead on Larry LaRocco in Rasmussen's first poll of the open Senate seat race in Idaho. This poll is missing one key element, though: self-funding independent Rex Rammell, who's charging hard at Risch's right flank. If this is really where the race is, though, it doesn't look like the Rammell effect will have much impact on the bottom line.
It may be worth noting that the uncharismatic and campaigning-averse Risch inspires a large degree of "meh" among the sample: he has a 62% favorable rating, but 41% of that is only "somewhat favorable."
Larry LaRocco (D): 29
Jim Risch (R): 41
Rex Rammell (I): 3
(MoE: ±4.0%)
This pretty much confirms Research 2000's poll of this race for the Great Orange Satan, which pegged the race at 42-32, with Republican-turned-Independent Rammell picking up five points. At this point, the disgruntled rancher doesn't appear to be much of a factor.
It seems telling that Risch can't soar much above 40% in a state that Bush won twice with 67% and 69%, respectively. However, it's not going to be incredibly difficult for him to push what are undoubtedly conservative-leaning undecideds onto his side of the fence come election day.
Still, Risch's continued mediocrity makes this race worth keeping an eye on.
So with about three months to go, with Ted Stevens' indictment dominating the Senate news, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So what are the competitive races?
I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything). The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous May diary to see what things have changed since my last update.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (7/28-30, likely voters):
Larry LaRocco (D): 32
Jim Risch (R): 42
Rex Rammell (I): 5
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.5%)
The last poll that we've seen of this race, a Lake Research internal for LaRocco from late May, showed a 43-28-6 split. Voters in deep red Idaho still don't seem to be taking much of a liking to Risch, despite him being the only candidate who has aired statewide ads for this race so far.
LaRocco will have a lot of work to do in order to pull even with Risch (and we can't deny that he's certainly been working hard), but the dynamics of this race -- especially with right-wing independent Rammell hoping to play the spoiler -- could give us something interesting to watch in the fall.
Lake Research for Larry LaRocco (5/20-25, likely voters):
Larry LaRocco (D): 28
Jim Risch (R): 43
Rex Rammell (I): 6
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±4.5%)
If LaRocco wins this race, how many Senate seats would Democrats pick up across the nation? The National Journal ranks this race as the 14th most likely GOP seat to flip, but I think it might be more like 16 or 17.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
