SSP Daily Digest: 11/11

by: Crisitunity

Wed Nov 11, 2009 at 3:24 PM EST

• IL-Sen, OH-Sen: Two little-known, never-been-elected rich guys are going on the air with TV spots in their respective Senate primaries: Democratic attorney Jacob Meister in Illinois, and Republican auto dealer Tom Ganley in Ohio. Meister may not have much hope in a field with three prominent candidates, but Ganley is trying to gain traction among the anti-establishment right against consummate insider pick Rob Portman in a two-way GOP primary fight. (Ganley's buy is reportedly only for $60K, so it seems more oriented toward generating media buzz than actually reaching lots of eyeballs, though.)

• NC-Sen: Rep. Bob Etheridge still sounds genuinely undecided about whether to get into the Senate race or not, but he's now promising a decision by the end of the week. The DSCC is actively courting Etheridge, despite the presence of SoS Elaine Marshall in the race. Meanwhile, two other possible contenders are circling, watching, and waiting: former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker says he may run if Etheridge doesn't, and outgoing Chapel Hill mayor Kevin Foy is still considering the race, saying he'll decide by the end of the month.

• SC-Sen: Ouch! Lindsey Graham just got a pretty strong repudiation from the local GOP in one of the state's largest counties, Charleston County. They unanimously voted to censure Graham over his cooperation with Democrats and moderate GOPers. Graham isn't up until 2014, but it certainly doesn't bode well for his next primary.

• CO-Gov: Josh Penry's jump out of the Colorado governor's GOP primary may have been more of a push. Big-time GOP funder Phil Anschutz is reported to have personally contacted Penry to let him know that he'd be on the receiving end of the 501(c)(4) that he'd created to target anyone opposing establishment candidate ex-Rep. Scott McInnis. (Of course, with news of this having leaked out, that seems likely to just further enrage the teabaggy right and lead them to find a hard-right replacement who, unlike Penry, isn't worried about having his brand besmirched for future runs. Could Tom Tancredo be that man?)

• CT-Gov: For about the zillionth time in his career, Democratic AG Richard Blumenthal decided not to run for a promotion; he says he won't get involved in the newly-minted open seat gubernatorial race. However, Blumenthal did nothing to quash rumors that he's waiting to take on Joe Lieberman in 2012, saying "stay tuned." Meanwhile, Paulist financial guru Peter Schiff, currently running for the GOP Senate nod, confirmed that he won't be leaping over to the gubernatorial race, either.

• SC-Gov: Fervently anti-tax state Rep. Nikki Haley has been a key Mark Sanford ally in the legislature, but she's been lagging in the GOP gubernatorial primary race. A Mark Sanford endorsement would be poison at this point, though, so the Sanfords paid her back with a slightly-less-poisonous endorsement from Jenny Sanford instead. Still doesn't really sound like the kind of endorsement you want to tout, though.

FL-08: Republican leaders are increasingly sour on the candidacy of 28 year-old businessman Armando Gutierrez Jr., who is "pissing people off a lot" with his bare-knuckle style. The NRCC is still hoping to recruit a solid challenger to go up against "colorful" Dem Rep. Alan Grayson after months of recruitment mishaps, and the current batch of names being bandied about include businessman Bruce O'Donoghue, state Rep. Eric Eisnaugle, and state Rep. Kurt Kelly. Gutierrez, however, seems to be doing all he can to make the GOP primary an unpleasant proposition. (J)

• FL-19: The Democratic primary in the upcoming special election to replace Robert Wexler is shaping up to be a real snoozefest. Former State Rep. Irving Slosberg, who lost a bitter 2006 state Senate primary to Ted Deutsch, announced yesterday that he won't be running and that he's endorsing Deutch. (Slosberg probably has his eye on Deutch's soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat.)

• ID-01: With state Rep. Ken Robert's dropout in the 1st, Vaughn Ward had the GOP field to himself for only a couple hours before another state Rep., Raul Labrador, said that he'll get in instead. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Bill Sali has been speaking before conservative groups and is still considering an attempt at a rematch with Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick, and says he'll decide by the end of the month.

• NJ-03: Democratic freshman Rep. John Adler has been seemingly running scared despite the Republicans not having recruited anyone in this swingy R+1 district, probably helped along by Chris Christie's huge numbers last week in Ocean County. Republicans think they have the right guy to flatten Adler: former Philadelphia Eagles lineman Jon Runyan. Runyan isn't retired but not on any team's roster either, and is "considering" the race.

• NY-24: He lost narrowly in 2008 to Democratic Rep. Mike Arcuri, and now businessman Richard Hanna is making candidate-type noises again, with a press release attacking Arcuri's health care reform vote. Hanna is thinking about another run; Republicans don't seem to have any other strong candidates on tap in this R+2 district.

• SD-AL: Republican State Rep. Shantel Krebs decided against a run against Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in 2010. She was facing a cluttered field, with Secretary of State Chris Nelson and state Rep. Blake Curd already in the GOP primary.

• Nassau Co. Exec: So I was wrong about the Seattle mayor's race being the last one to be called: the Nassau County Executive race is now in mid-recount, and Republican challenger Ed Mangano has a paper-thin (24 votes) lead over Democratic incumbent Tom Suozzi. Democratic Nassau County Legislator Dave Meijas (who you might remember from NY-03 in 2006) is also in a recount.

• VA-St. House: The last House of Delegates race in Virginia was finally called; Republican Ron Villaneuva was certified the victor in the Virginia Beach-based 21st over incumbent Dem Bobby Mathieson by a 13-vote margin, although the race is likely to go to a recount by Mathieson's request.

• WA-St. Sen.: Democratic State Sen. Fred Jarrett was picked by new King Co. Executive Dow Constantine (who defeated Jarrett in the primary) to be the Deputy Executive. Jarrett will need to resign from the Senate to do so, creating a vacancy in this Bellevue-based, historically Republican but recently very Democratic seat. In Washington, though, legislative vacancies are filled by appointment by the county council (Democratic-controlled in King County, as you might expect), so there won't be a special election, and the appointee will serve until (his or her probable re-election in) Nov. 2010.

• Generic Ballot: Everyone in the punditsphere seems abuzz today that Gallup suddenly shows a 4-pt GOP edge in the generic House ballot, a big swing from the previous D+2 edge. (Most other pollsters show a mid-single-digits Dem edge, like Pew at D+5 today.) Real Clear Politics points out an important caveat: the last time the GOP led the Gallup House ballot was September 2008, and you all remember how that election played out. Another poll today is perhaps more interesting: Winthrop University polled just the Old South states, and finds a 47-42 edge for the Republicans in the generic House ballot in the south. Initially that may not seem good, but remember that most of the state's reddest districts are contained in the south, so, after accounting for the heavily-concentrated wingnuts, this probably extrapolates out to a Dem edge still present in southern swing districts.

• Public option: With the prospect of an opt-out public option looming large, the topic of whether to opt out is poised to become a hot issue in gubernatorial races in red states next year. Several states already have opt-out legislation proposed, although it remains to be seen whether any would actually go through with it (when considering how many states turned down stimulus funds in the end despite gubernatorial grandstanding... or how many states have decided to opt out of Medicaid, as they're able to do).

• WATN?: Congratulations to Charlie Brown, who has accepted a position in the Dept. of Homeland Security. Unfortunately, this means Brown won't be back for another kick at the football in CA-04.

SSP Daily Digest: 11/10 (Part II)

by: Crisitunity

Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 4:59 PM EST

• FL-Sen: Here's about as close as you can get to a Jeb Bush endorsement without his lips actually moving. Bush's sons, Jeb Bush Jr. and George P. Bush, are headlining a Marco Rubio fundraiser in mid-December.

• CT-Gov: Ned Lamont is already staffing up, and a familiar face is going to be one of his key advisors: Howard Wolfson. Wolfson was adviser to Lamont in 2006, but is better known for his lead role in Hillary Clinton's campaign last year, as well as Michael Bloomberg's campaign this year.

• MN-Gov: Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak ran into a snafu with his campaign still on the launching pad, as the state's campaign finance board ruled that he spent money on his campaign before he'd filed the campaign paperwork. Rybak paid for a message-testing poll, although it didn't directly ask questions about the governor's race. If you want to see the whole polling memo (not something you usually get to see with internal polls), check it out.

• WI-Gov: Politics abhors a vacuum, and Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett is acting quickly to fill the vacuum that has formed on the Democratic side of the gubernatorial race. He says he'll make a decision "one way or the other" by the week's end.

• CO-04: Although state Rep. Cory Gardner is clearly the NRCC's favorite in the Republican field, that didn't deter former Ft. Collins city councilor Diggs Brown, who will be announcing his candidacy on Saturday. He had been considered a likely candidate all year, but was on a year-long Army deployment and unable to announce until now. Univ. of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero rounds out the trio of GOPers seeking to take on first-term Dem Rep. Betsy Markey.

• FL-13: James Golden, an African-American minister, attorney and former Bradenton city councilor, launched his campaign last week against Rep. Vern Buchanan. Golden will face an uphill fight against the self-funding Buchanan -- unless Buchanan, facing ongoing scrutiny over mysterious campaign finance machinations, goes down in a legal implosion.

• ID-01: This may be a surprise, or may not -- state House majority leader Ken Roberts withdrew from the GOP primary race to take on freshman Dem Rep. Walt Minnick. Roberts cited health reasons. Roberts initially would have seemed to have a leg up based on name recognition, but veteran and former McCain campaign official Vaughn Ward seemed to be capturing most of the buzz, including a good fundraising start and NRCC touting.

• IN-03: Democrats have taken notice in the last few cycles of Rep. Mark Souder's decidedly lackadaisical approach to re-election in this dark-red district, but now someone from the teabaggy right is taking notice too, and launching a primary campaign. Republican Attorney Phil Troyer (a former staffer to Dick Lugar and Dan Coats) announced his campaign today. (This seems less like an ideological challenge, as Souder is down-the-line conservative, as just opportunistic, taking advantage of his sloth.) Tom Hayhurst, who narrowly lost in 2006, is on track to the Democratic nod again.

• MN-03: Add a second Democratic challenger to the list in the 3rd: Minnesota PTA president, and executive director of the Minnesota Optometrists Association, Jim Meffert filed to run. He joins psychiatrist Maureen Hackett; they may still both be joined by state Sen. Teri Bonoff, although Meffert says that Bonoff has hinted to him that she's likely to take a pass.

• NJ-03: Best wishes to state Sen. Diane Allen, who is entering treatment for an aggressive form of cancer. The moderate Allen, who lost the 2002 Senate primary and was short-listed for Lt. Governor this year, had been considered a possible candidate against Rep. John Adler in the 3rd.

• NV-02: We've got another Democrat lined up to go against Rep. Dean Heller in the 2nd (after Cindy Trigg dropped out several months ago), and he has a strong resume. Jack Schofield is a member of the state's Board of Regents, and is a former state Senator. Unfortunately, he may not be running the most vigorous campaign in the world, as he was a state Senator in the 1970s, and is a World War II veteran (do the math).

• NY-23: The Washington Post has a nice, human-level retrospective on Dede Scozzafava's collapse in the special election and the difference in how the GOP and the Dems treated her, leading to her Bill Owens endorsement. Meanwhile, things continue to play out, as Scozzafava either stepped down from or was stripped of her leadership role in the Assembly Republicans, depending on who you believe. Start counting down to her party switch (not that the Assembly Dems need the help, what with their 109-41 margin).

• OH-02: What's with all these former Apprentice contestants thinking that's somehow a stepping stone to political office? Surya Yalimanchili is now planning to run as an independent in the 2nd, currently held by GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt. He's sounding centrist notes so far rather than sounding teabaggy, though, so he may not help the Dems too much by siphoning off far-right Republican votes.

• PA-07: One more Democrat is getting into the open seat field in the 7th, although it's unclear whether she'll get much traction against state Rep. Bryan Lentz. Environmental lawyer Gail Conner, an Obama convention delegate last year, threw her hat into the ring.

• PA-11: Third time's the charm? It looks like Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta will give crusty Dem incumbent Paul Kanjorski another challenge next year. Barletta fell just a few points shy of knocking off Kanjorski last year, prompting Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O'Brien to enter the Democratic primary for the seat. With pressure from both sides, one has to wonder if Kanjo will hit the eject button. (J)

• PA-17: Here's an example of how voting against health care reform does Blue Dogs a fat lot of good: Rep. Tim Holden got about two days of peace before a Republican state Senator started making noises about a campaign against him anyway. Holden has had little in the way of opposition recently, but now he may face David Argall, who represents Holden's coal-country turf of Schuylkill County. Relatedly, over in Ohio's 16th, a Cleveland Plain Dealer profile of fellow anti-HCR vote John Boccieri shows how he managed to win over exactly no Republicans while ticking off his base.

• PA-19: With Republican Rep. Todd Platts looking to bail on the House and head over to the GAO, candidates are already scoping out the potential special election. Although it's a dark-red district (R+12), one good-sounding Dem is gearing up: Ryan Sanders, real estate developer, president of the Red Lion Area Business Association, and most usefully, an organizer for the Obama campaign in York County.

• UT-02: More fallout from the health care reform vote: Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson (one of the 'no' votes) may, as a result, be facing a primary challenge from the left from state Sen. Scott McCoy (Utah's only gay state Senator and one of its few liberals). The Salt Lake City-based district is still strongly Republican, although it hasn't presented Matheson with much trouble lately.

• MI-St. Sen.: Here's an interesting look at the fight by Dems to reclaim the state Senate in Michigan (currently held 22-16 by the GOP, but where the majority of seats are open next year), which would give them the redistricting trifecta. Even if they don't pick it up (or do while losing the gubernatorial race), the state Supreme Court breaks any logjam, making next year's Supreme Court elections paramount too. The article also contains a map of the Dems' preferred redistricting plan, to turf out Rep. Vern Ehlers by creating a Dem-leaning 3rd District linking Grand Rapids and Muskegon.

• NH-St. Sen.: A special election will be happening in New Hampshire, giving the Dems the chance to add to their narrow lead in the state Senate there (they currently have a 14-10 edge). Republican state Sen. Ted Gatsas is poised to resign after having been elected Manchester mayor. Democratic state Rep. Jeff Goley is set to get into the race, though several other state House Dems are looking at it too.

• Mayors: The Seattle mayor's race has finally come to an end, with as late-breaking ballots are going more toward former local Sierra Club leader Mike McGinn. Joe Mallahan conceded after McGinn's lead pushed up to nearly 5,000, for a 51-49 edge.

• Ads: In the wake of this weekend's health care vote, the DNC is planning to target 32 House Republicans in Obama districts who voted 'no.' They aren't planning on using paid media yet, but will use the OFA campaign e-mail lists to organize in those districts. Meanwhile, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee is promising ads against 10 'no' votes, saying it's "payback" time: Barrow, Shuler, Herseth Sandlin, Murphy, Altmire, Nye, Kissell, Adler, Kosmas, and Ross.

• Demographics: If you're like me, you may spend a lot of time wondering how Scandinavian-Americans got so liberal and Dutch-Americans got so conservative. Dreaminonempty takes a look at ancestry and voting patterns in a very interesting diary at Open Left.

NRCC Puts 70 Dems on Notice

by: James L.

Mon Aug 03, 2009 at 10:42 PM EDT

That's a big fat, honkin' list of incumbents, including several that haven't seen a competitive race in years -- or ever (Boren, Skelton, the Arkansas delegation, Matheson, Pomeroy, Kind, and Boucher, to name just a few). Many of these races probably won't produce competitive contests, but there's absolutely no downside for the NRCC to be putting these incumbents on notice -- not only will the targets being painted on these members' backs have the potential to affect legislative votes, it helps to promote the idea that the NRCC is preparing for a big wave in their favor in 2010. (One thing's for sure, if we have to worry about David Effin' Wu next year, we'll be preparing for life in the minority again.)

Now, what makes a challenger "legitimate", you ask? That's a good question. I define legitimacy as something that must be earned -- whether it's through an electoral track record or a demonstrated ability to fundraise (or self-fund), or some combination of both. In other words, just because the NRCC has met with some random businessman and asked him to challenge his local congressman, it doesn't mean that the challenger has established himself as legitimate until he's coughed up a quarterly filing with the FEC. Let me put it this way: for every Richard Hanna (the guy who nearly beat Mike Arcuri last year), there are a dozen or more Luke Pucketts or Carl Mumpowers. It's just a lot harder at this point in the game to separate the wheat from the chaff, so our methodology is not to list a challenger without a record of electoral success as "legitimate" until they have demonstrated their ability to raise the dough. (And no, raising phat loads of cash through BMW Direct, like Bill Russell does in PA-12 does not count as a legitimate means of fundraising in our book.) The NRCC would no doubt disagree pretty strongly with my chart in some places, but I already feel that I'm being overly generous by granting OR-04 candidate Sid Leiken, who has had some pretty severe fundraising difficulties, "legit" status.

So, many of these districts marked with an "N" have challengers that have yet to prove the merit and mettle of their respective candidacies. There's no doubt that many of these Ns will turn into Ys by the time the year's over, but the GOP still has a lot of work to do. The GOP also has a stock of credible candidates considering bids in many of these "unchallenged" districts (FL-08, LA-03, and VA-05, in particular), so some of these holes will be easier to fill than others.

Also interesting is who is not listed on such an expansive list as this -- guys whom the NRCC spent a lot of time targeting last cycle like Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Jim Marshall (GA-08) and Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23) stand out as conspicuous absences, especially considering the number of extreme longshots thrown into the mix.

SSP Daily Digest: 6/25

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jun 25, 2009 at 1:48 PM EDT

• DE-Sen: After Rep. Mike Castle made an inartful comment a few days ago ("They've asked me to run for Senate as a Republican. I don't know if I'm going to do that."), he went ahead and clarified that he isn't intending to switch parties.

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio picked up a potentially useful endorsement in the GOP Senate primary: Rep. Jeff Miller, who represents FL-01 in the dark-red Panhandle, an area of the state where Rubio is little known so far but where his hard-right conservatism is likely to play well. Miller endorsed Charlie Crist in the 2006 governor's primary.

• MO-Sen: Here's another minor tea leaf that former Treasurer Sarah Steelman won't be getting into the Senate primary: prominent Missouri political operative Gregg Keller, who was reportedly set to work for Steelman, instead went to Connecticut to manage Tom Foley's CT-Sen campaign.

• NC-Sen: Here's some good news out of North Carolina: former state Senator and Iraq vet Cal Cunningham seems to be moving to get into the Senate race for the Dems. Cunningham described his efforts to put together a campaign in a post to his Facebook supporters group.

• NH-Sen: With establishment figures dithering on whether to get into the GOP Senate primary, businessman Fred Tausch is jumping into the void, launching a TV spot promoting his fiscal-discipline advocacy group, STEWARD of Prosperity. He says he's interested in the Senate race, although not ready to publicly declare.

• VT-Sen: It wasn't a done deal that 69-year-old Pat Leahy would be back for another term in the Senate, but he confirmed yesterday he'll be back for a seventh term.

• AZ-Gov: Former Democratic state party chair and 2006 Senate candidate Jim Pederson said today that he won't run for Arizona governor, despite earlier statements of his interest. This leaves AG Terry Goddard (who has said he "intends" to run) with a pretty clear shot at the Dem nomination; it remains unclear if Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, armpit-deep in a frustrating fight with her GOP-held legislature, will run for a full term.

• CA-Gov: Rep. Loretta Sanchez announced she won't be running for Governor but will seek another term in the House; she naturally became a topic of conversation with LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's exit from the race, leaving the Dem field without a SoCal, Hispanic, or female candidate. On the GOP side, Rep. John Campbell's defection from the Steve Poizner camp to the Meg Whitman camp was just the tip of the iceberg: three state legislators and a county chair just flipped.

• SC-Gov: State Rep. Nikki Haley has been the subject of breathless conservative hype over the past few months as the anti-spending candidate to replace Mark Sanford (and also Sanford's preferred choice for the job, if you read the tea leaves). See this pre-Sanford-implosion Politico piece from earlier this week to see what I mean. But with revelations that Sanford hasn't been able to keep it in his pants or on this continent (a snap SUSA poll finds 60% of state residents think he should resign, with only 34% saying stay in office), Haley has moved to distance herself from Sanford, scrubbing all traces of him from her website where he was once prominently featured. (J)

• UT-Gov: Soon-to-be Gov. Gary Herbert looks like he won't have a free ride at the nominating convention in the 2010 special election. Univ. of Utah professor Kirk Jowers, who reportedly had been offered the role as Herbert's Lt. Gov., is the subject of a draft movement and may challenge Herbert for the top job instead -- with Josh Romney (son of Mitt) as his LG. Rep. Jason Chaffetz appears to be in their corner.

• ID-01: Idaho pollster Greg Smith tested the approvals of local politicians, and Idahoans just like their politicians, gosh darn it, even that Demmycrat Walt Minnick (whose approval is 47/20, good news heading into a potentially very tough re-election). Governor Butch Otter has the most troublesome numbers, and even he's at 47/35.

• IL-07: Here's a potential open seat, although at D+35, not one we're going to have to sweat very hard. Rep. Danny Davis, who had been vaguely associated with the IL-Sen primary, now looks to be taking concrete steps toward running for President of the Cook County Board, forming an exploratory committee. Davis was runner-up in that race three years ago. This time, he says he has a poll giving him a 7-point lead over county commissioner Forrest Claypool, who was presumptive frontrunner but pulled out of the race last week. With over 5 million constituents, it seems like a pretty good gig.

• NY-23: New York county Democratic leaders set an initial timeline for finding a nominee for the upcoming special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. July 17 is the deadline for declaring interest.

• PA-03: With no GOPer left to challenge freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, Elaine Surma formed an exploratory committee to consider a bid. With no elective track record, she's a senior agent with the state Attorney General's office.

• PA-15: Bethlehem mayor John Callahan's seeming change of heart about running against Rep. Charlie Dent comes after having been called by Joe Biden last week with promises of White House support in the race.

• VA-02, VA-05: Roll Call looks at the prospects for the Virginia freshmen. Ex-Rep. Virgil Goode is apparently close to making a decision on whether to try to wrest the 5th back from Rep. Tom Perriello, with state Del. Rob Bell or state Sen. Rob Hurt as backup plans. In the 2nd, none of the local elected GOP officials seem to be moving toward the race, and the GOP field is more a hodge-podge of various businessmen/veterans: Chuck Smith, Ed Maulbeck, Ben Loyola, and possibly Scott Rigell.

SSP Daily Digest: 6/16 II: Electric Boogaloo

by: Crisitunity

Tue Jun 16, 2009 at 4:09 PM EDT

• PA-Sen: Here's an interesting development: a state legislator in Pennsylvania has introduced a bill to switch Pennyslvania from closed to open primaries. This seems like a nakedly pro-Specter bill: it would have helped him survive his GOP primary against Pat Toomey, and now it would have the opposite effect, helping him survive a Democratic primary against Joe Sestak by opening the door to independents and moderate Republicans.

• AK-AL: Unless the indictment fairy has a present for him soon, Rep. Don Young looks to have a much easier go of it in 2010 than last cycle. Not only is his Dem challenger ex-state House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz likely to run for governor instead, but now it sounds like his primary opponents, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell and ex-state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, aren't going to run again either. Unlike last time, Parnell would need to give up his LG job to run, and he may instead be running for Governor if Sarah Palin declines to run again. Businessman Andrew Halcro, who ran for Governor as an independent in 2006, also sounds likely to run for Governor rather than challenge Young. State Senator Hollis French, who sounded like a likely Governor candidate for the Dems until Berkowitz showed up, may be the Dems' best bet.

• AL-07: The field to replace Artur Davis got bigger, as Jefferson Co. Councilor Shelia Smoot officially launched her campaign. She joins lawyer Terri Sewell, state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr., and former Selma mayor James Perkins in the primary (which is the only real race in this D+18 district).

• CA-11: Contra Costa County Sheriff Warren Rupf turned down the chance to run as a Republican in the upcoming CA-10 special election, but that seemed to ignite his interest, as now he's considering running in 2010 in next-door CA-11 against sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney, at R+1 a more plausible race than the D+11 CA-10.

• FL-08: Republican state Representative Steve Precourt is considering making the race against Rep. Alan Grayson in this R+2 Orlando-area seat. His strongest words seemed to be reserved for likely primary opponent Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, who Precourt doesn't see as a "fresh face" or viable, although Precourt said he'd stand down if former state Sen. Daniel Webster got in.

• ID-01: The Republican field in ID-01 is filling up, as state House majority leader Ken Roberts announced he's in. He'll have to get past veteran and McCain ally Vaughn Ward before facing off against Rep. Walt Minnick, though. Ex-Rep. Bill Sali occasionally makes threatening noises about a rematch, but he hasn't said anything definite.

• NH-02: Former state Rep. Bob Giuda (not to be confused with Frank Guinta, running in NH-01) is the first GOPer to launch an exploratory committee in the race to fill Rep. Paul Hodes' open seat. He may still be joined by the 2008 candidate, Jennifer Horn, and, more remotely, a return by ex-Rep. Charlie Bass.

• NY-23: Douglas Hoffman, the head of a local accounting firm, has thrown his hat into the GOP nomination contest for the special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. Republicans also announced their schedule for picking a nominee, involving four regional meetings around the districts where candidates would speak to the Republican county committee members over a two- to four-week period once there's an official vacancy.

• PA-03: Freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, representing the swingy R+3 district based in Erie (won by John McCain by 62 votes), has managed to secure a hot ticket in view of its self-imposed membership cap: she joined the Blue Dog Coalition.

• Redistricting: A petition drive is underway in Florida to get an initiative on the ballot for 2010 that, while not creating an independent redistricting campaign, would at least place some non-partisan limitations on the creation of House and legislative districts. Most of the money behind the petition drive is coming from Democrats, but two prominent Democrats aren't on board with the drive: Reps. Alcee Hastings and Corrine Brown, both of whom stand to inherit more difficult districts if they're made less convoluted.

ID-01: Top GOP Recruit Bows Out

by: James L.

Sat May 09, 2009 at 2:05 PM EDT

Nampa resident and Idaho Treasurer Ron Crane has decided against running for Walt Minnick's 1st District U.S. Congressional seat in 2010.

Crane, a Republican, told the Idaho Press-Tribune Friday he had made the decision not to run.

"I seriously explored it," Crane said. "I have come to the conclusion not to run."

Crane spent the last week hobnobbing with the GOP braintrust in DC, and now I have to wonder if he wasn't sufficiently impressed by the sorry state of affairs in the Boehner caucus. So make that one bullet dodged for Walt Minnick... but there are undoubtedly plenty more to come.

SSP Daily Digest: 5/7

by: Crisitunity

Thu May 07, 2009 at 2:56 PM EDT

• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy is still making noises about a primary challenge to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, but with her frequent caveats about stepping aside if someone younger takes on the challenge, it seems like she's doing it more to yank Gillibrand's chain on gun control issues. Gillibrand has been a reliable vote in favor of gun controls since entering the Senate, going so far as to co-sponsor the current bill to close the gun-show loophole. McCarthy confesses to being "very happy about it. I just want her to stay there."

• NH-Sen: Judd Gregg tells CQ that wherever he goes, he's bombarded by Republicans begging him to run for another term in the Senate. He says he'll listen to their entreaties, but he's "comfortable with where" he is.

• AK-Gov: Governors in general are having a rough go of it these days, and now even the once-mighty Sarah Palin is suffering, falling to a mundane 54/41 favorable rating according to Hays Research. Senator Lisa Murkowski, by comparison, is still at 76/18.

• OK-Gov: Ex-Rep. J.C. Watts is still publicly undecided about the governor's race, and kicking the can down the road on a formal decision. Reading between the lines of his statement, it sounds like he's having some trouble fundraising, saying "You don't take on something like this unless you know you will have the resources to do it."

• CO-04: The GOP got the candidate it wanted, to go up against freshman Rep. Betsy Markey in this now R+6 district. State House minority whip Cory Gardner, who represents the vast emptiness of eastern Colorado, announced that he'll be running. Univ. of Colorado regent Tom Lucero is already in the hunt for the GOP nod.

• MN-06: One day after former Independence Party Lt. Gov. candidate Maureen Reed said she'll be a Dem candidate in 2010, the 2008 candidate, Elwyn Tinklenberg, confirmed he'll be running again, against one-woman gaffe machine Michele Bachmann.

• CA-47: GOP Assemblyman Van Tran made it official, setting up his exploratory committee for an uphill bid against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in this D+4 Latino-majority district in the heart of the O.C. (Discussion underway in Gus Ayer's diary.)

• ID-01: Idaho state Treasurer Don Crane spent the last week glad-handing GOP leaders and fundraisers in Washington, DC, fueling speculation that he's ready to challenge frosh Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick next year. Would his candidacy dampen the spirits of ex-Rep. Bill "Brain Fade" Sali, who is currently mulling a rematch? (J)

• GA-09: When you have an R+28 district, the only question about an open seat is what variety of wingnut you're going to get next. Former state Senator Bill Stephens (who lost the SoS primary to Karen Handel in 2006) announced he'll run to succeed Rep. Nathan Deal, retiring to run for governor. Former state Transportation Board chair Mike Evans is already seek the GOP nom.

• IL-11: The GOP has lined up Air Force Captain Adam Kinzinger to run against freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson in the Chicago suburbs. His exploratory committee is open, but he's currently serving in Iraq and won't be able to make a formal announcement until summer.

• MI-11: We've got somebody willing to step up against Bad Thad McCotter in this Dem-trending seat in the economically hard-hit Detroit suburbs: fundraising consultant Natalie Mosher. The DCCC sounds like it's going to keep looking for someone else, but if that fails, bear in mind that McCotter barely won in 2008 against a different Dem nobody.

• GA-12: When you're running for office, it's important to sell yourself... but not oversell yourself. Surgeon and Iraq vet Wayne Mosely, who's running against Rep. John Barrow in the D+1 rural Georgia district, recently tweeted that the NRCC rated his race as one of the top 3 in the nation! Uh, no, there's no ranking system, responded the NRCC, although they did concede that they were "very excited" about Mosely's candidacy.

SSP Daily Digest: 4/28

by: Crisitunity

Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 4:19 PM EDT

• IL-Sen: Chris Kennedy, son of Robert F. Kennedy, is now publicly pondering entering the Illinois senate race. Kennedy has never held elective office; he's a developer who runs Chicago's Merchandise Mart. On the other hand, he's been a Chicago fixture most of his life, and has that certain last name. One source says there's an "85% chance" he'll do it.

• CA-Sen: In case there was any doubt, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer has officially announced her plans to seek re-election. (J)

• GA-Gov: State senator Eric Johnson has, with Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle dropping out of the gubernatorial race, switched from running for lieutenant governor to governor. He joins SoS Karen Handel, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, and state rep. Austin Scott in the hunt for the GOP nomination.

• AL-Gov: Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, Alabama's only Democratic appellate judge, is interested in joining the already-crowded field seeking the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. She would have to resign her position (in which case GOP governor Bob Riley would appoint a new chief justice) in order to campaign for governor, though.

• NH-01: Manchester mayor Frank Guinta is the likely candidate to take on Carol Shea-Porter, and he has produced an internal poll showing him trailing Shea-Porter 43-34. Shea-Porter is well-below the danger mark of 50, but on the other hand, Guinta isn't an unknown; he already represents nearly 20% of the district.

• ID-01: Are you there, God? It's me, Brain Fade. Ex-Rep. Bill Sali (R) sounds like he's angling to make a comeback against Democrat Walt Minnick next year. In an email to supporters, Sali says that he's "increasingly troubled by the direction our country is headed" and is asking his supporters to pray for him as he considers his political future. (J)

• SD-AL: South Dakota's Republican Secretary of State, Chris Nelson, has made known his interest in running for South Dakota's at-large House seat. Nelson, who's term-limited out, didn't seem to make this contingent on whether or not Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin ran for higher office, like the open governor's seat (which has been rumored, but doesn't seem to be taking shape).

• CA-47: The GOP is looking to Vietnamese-American assemblyman Van Tran as a candidate against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in this D+4 Orange County district. This very low-turnout district is about 15% Asian and 70% Hispanic.

• CA-26: Businessman Russ Warner, who ran unsuccessfully against GOP Rep. David Dreier in 2008 (and attempted to do the same in 2006, but ran into a snag in the form of a primary loss), says that he plans to run for a third time next year in this Dem-trending CD. (J)

• DCCC: Everybody's favorite new villainess, Michele Bachmann, has been so prolific with the oddball fringe-right comments lately that she's actually getting her own page at the DCCC's website. Imagine that: from backbencher to public enemy #1 in less than half a year!

SSP Daily Digest: 4/14

by: Crisitunity

Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 4:49 PM EDT

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter picked up an important backer in the 2010 primary: NRSC chair John Cornyn (who'd, of course, like to limit the number of seats lost on his watch). "As I survey the political landscape of the upcoming 2010 elections, it's clear we need more candidates that fit their states," said Cornyn. Although Cornyn doesn't mention his name, he obviously has in mind a guy who doesn't fit his state: Pat Toomey, who just happened to officially announce his long-rumored Senate bid yesterday.

• MN-Sen: No surprise here; Norm Coleman, having lost the election yesterday according to a three-judge panel, has filed an appeal with the Minnesota Supreme Court. Election law blogger Rick Hasen looks at yesterday's opinion and the difficulty Coleman will face in getting it reversed.

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio reported raising $250,000 in the last month since opening his exploratory committee, a solid start. Meanwhile, Kendrick Meek continued to dominate the labor endorsement front, picking up the nod from the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades, AFL-CIO.

• IL-10: State senator Susan Garrett says she'll decide within the month whether or not to challenge Mark Kirk (sounding like she's trying to wait as long as possible to see if Kirk jumps into the senate race and leaves an open seat). Kirk has turned back a number of serious challenges in the 3rd-most Dem-leaning district still occupied by a Republican (won by Obama with 61% of the vote).

• NV-02: A credible Democratic challenger to Dean Heller has materialized. Douglas County school board president Cindy Trigg plans to announce her candidacy next week. This district, once a Republican stronghold, went for McCain by less than 100 votes.

• ID-01: Walt Minnick just got some fundraising help from an unexpected place. Former two-term GOP senator from Idaho Steve Symms is headlining Minnick's April 23 breakfast fundraiser.

• NRCC: Campaign Diaries has the full list of all 43 Dems targeted in the GOP's big radio-spot-and-robocall blitz.

• Where Are They Now?: Tom Feeney: just took a job with noted think-tank the Heritage Foundation, to focus on "community outreach." Bob Ney: just got the 1-3 pm slot on a conservative talk radio station in Moundsville, WV. Chris Chocola: just made it official, that he will be replacing Pat Toomey as head of the Club for Growth. Vito Fossella: just pled guilty to DWI and will serve four days in Alexandria city jail.

• Red Menace: Spencer Bachus (AL-06) just announced that he is holding in his hand a list of 17 socialists in Congress. We all know about Bernie Sanders; anyone care to hazard a guess who the other 16 are?

ID-01: Guess You Better Slow That Mustang Sali Down

by: James L.

Mon Feb 02, 2009 at 3:58 PM EST

Not so fast:

Former GOP Rep. Bill Sali told 670 KBOI late Friday afternoon that support for a rematch against Democrat Walt Minnick "runs very deep," but that he hasn't decided whether to run in 2010. [...]

"I haven't made a decision yet," Sali told KBOI's Nate Shelman in a six-minute interview. "I promise everyone when I make a decision I will let everyone know." Sali did not take calls on Shelman's talk show.

Earlier Friday, Sali told the Associated Press, "I am months away from any decision."

Candidates are required to file statements of candidacy if they raise or spend $5,000 for the upcoming election. Sali said he had spent more than $5,000, and the filing was a technical matter.

"Runs very deep", eh? Thank God for brain fade.

ID-01: Sali Prepares for a Rematch

by: James L.

Thu Jan 29, 2009 at 3:58 PM EST

Republican former congressman Bill Sali is preparing for a rematch against Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick in 2010.

Sali filed a statement of candidacy Monday with the Federal Election Commission, taking on the same "Sali for Congress" name he used in his 2006 and 2008 campaigns.

But Sali isn't the only Republican who may take a crack at his old seat. The Idaho Statesman reports that state Sen. John McGee, former state Controller Keith Johnson, and Attorney General Lawrence Wasden are all mulling the race. Bill Sali's best bet may be for all of them to jump in, allowing him to squeak through with a bare plurality -- much like his '06 primary win, when he gobbled up just 26% of the vote to earn his party's nomination.

I have to wonder: will the Club For Growth stand by their man this time?

UPDATE (David): Let me add that Mustang Sali still owes about $125K in various debts. This was a serious problem for him last cycle - stiffing vendors in the small world of Idaho politics is a sure way to make enemies, one of the few things Sali is actually really good at. Continuing to stiff folks is an even surer way of getting your asses handed to you.

The Rest of the West: Part 1

by: atdleft

Tue Dec 16, 2008 at 6:20 PM EST

About 2 weeks ago, we talked about the rising Democratic tide in The Southwest. Now, I want to discuss what's happening in The Northwest. Believe it or not, we have plenty of opportunities up north as well.

Want to come along with me as we look at where we can win in 2010 and beyond?

CO-04, ID-01: Musgrave and Sali Considering Rematches

by: James L.

Mon Dec 08, 2008 at 8:29 PM EST

From The Hill:

Idaho Republican Party Executive Director Sid Smith said that the top potential challengers are state Sen. John McGee, state Attorney General Lawrence Wasden and, if he opts for a rematch, Sali.

Sali spokesman Wayne Hoffman did not rule that out.

"Running again in 2010 is an option that's definitely still on the table," he told The Hill.

And 9News.com:

Musgrave is not ruling out a future campaign.

"I will always be interested in politics. Whether I'll run again for office I don't know. I'll always be active, I'll always be involved," she said.

Of course, if either of these mouth-breathers run again, they'd almost surely draw some serious primary competition -- but it would still be entertaining!

ID-Sen, ID-01: Risch Ahead by 12, Minnick Up by 7

by: James L.

Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 3:17 PM EDT

Larry LaRocco (D): 33
Jim Risch (R): 45
Rex Rammell (I): 5
Pro-Life (I): 2
(MoE: ±4.4%)

I don't agree with McJoan's assessment that the DSCC should lay down some last-minute coin to push LaRocco over the edge here -- a few 30-second ads won't be enough to make up a 12-point gap with only a few days left on the clock. And while Risch isn't wildly popular in Idaho (his favorable rating is 41-28), LaRocco is even less loved -- his favorable rating clocks in at a 34-37. Unfair? Maybe, but this is Idaho, and these numbers aren't going to get the job done. The DSCC is correct to focus on tighter races.

But the real nugget from this poll is its 1st CD numbers:

Walt Minnick (D): 48
Bill Sali (R-inc): 41
(MoE: ±5.9%)

Keep in mind that the sample size is quite small here, but it's the second poll in recent days showing Sali trailing Minnick (SUSA had Minnick up by six). Minnick might just pull this one off.

SSP House Race Ratings Changes: 10/27

by: James L.

Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 12:46 AM EDT

We made these changes on Friday night, but haven't had the opportunity to post our full write-ups until now. Here goes:

Essentially, Republicans ceded this race the moment that former Arizona state Senate President Ken Bennett declined to run for the open seat of "retiring" GOP Rep. Rick Renzi. In his place, Republicans are running Arizona Mining Association President Sydney Hay, a truly D-grade candidate whose sharply right-wing views would make Randy Graf smile with pride. Most starkly, Hay has only raised $363,000 compared to Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick's $1.68 million. With the DCCC spending liberally against Hay, the end result is poised to look ugly for the GOP here. (James L.)

This is a case of good candidate, wrong year for the Republicans: they convinced state senate president Tim Bee to run against freshman Democrat Gabrielle Giffords in this R+1 district. Bee came in with something of a moderate image, but that was frittered away through a public tussle with Jim Kolbe, the Republican occupant of this seat prior to Giffords (probably over Bee's support for a gay marriage amendment to the Arizona constitution) and having to have a Bush visit to help with fundraising.

In a normal year, the GOP could have made a strong race of it, even with these few unforced errors. Given the broader trends this year, though, and the GOP's more pressing problems on defense, Bee simply got washed away... and acknowledging their chances, the NRCC just pulled out of this race. (Crisitunity)

Hopes have been high for Charlie Brown's second run at this seat in the Sacramento suburbs, after he narrowly lost to corrupt John Doolittle in 2006. Unfortunately (for Brown's chances), Doolittle subsequently retired, meaning that Brown would instead be running in 2008 against 'generic R' in a dark-red R+11 district.

Fortunately for Brown, though, 'generic R' didn't show up, and instead he found himself running against 'conservative icon' Tom McClintock, who between his name-recognition and access to money was supposed to have been a formidable opponent may just be too laughable and over-the-top even for this district. First off, McClintock is from southern California and hasn't bothered moving to the district yet. He seems to have little intention of unpacking his bags even if he wins, as he's keeping various accounts for 2010 statewide offices open.

Things just haven't gelled for McClintock; not only has he trailed Brown in all polls except his own internals, but he's almost out of money, as he finished the third quarter with only $94,000 cash on hand. The district lean here should disqualify a Democrat from picking up this seat, but by any objective measure, Brown is poised to be able to do it. (C)

This is an ugly, awful race with an ugly, awful candidate on the Dem line who really ought to spare himself, his family, his constituents, and his nominal party a whole lot of embarrassment by resigning. We'll have a shot here again in the future.

One point I'd like to make in passing, though, is that if Dave Lutrin, who was a short-lived primary opponent of Mahoney's back in 2006, thought his cause was just, he should never have dropped out. I'm really tired of claims that Rahm Emanuel somehow "pushed" Lutrin out of the race.

This isn't a third-world country. His family wasn't threatened. In America, if you want to run for office, you run. Some people might make things difficult for you, but that's called politics. And we also have excellent proof that such a course of action by no means has to be quixotic - just look at Reps. Jerry McNerney and Carol Shea-Porter. In other words, there's no excuse for giving up just because Rahm allegedly likes someone else better than you. (David)

Who would have ever thought that the first Republican incumbent to fall off the cliff and into the no-man's land of "Lean Dem" would be someone other than Don Young? Tom Feeney was one of the few representatives tarred with the brush of Abramoff to survive 2006 and then decide to try again in 2008. Until recently, however, with Jack Abramoff disappearing in the rear-view mirror and Feeney safely ensconced in an R+3 district that he designed for himself while in the state legislature, it looked like he was going to skate through.

As Republican fortunes in general started to dwindle this summer, though, Feeney found former state representative Suzanne Kosmas gaining on him. So, he did exactly what any rational politican would do... he issued an ad reminding everyone of his involvement in the Abramoff affair and begging forgiveness for it. Wait... what? That's not what a rational politician would do? Hmmm.

From that point on, everything seemed to go haywire for Feeney, and another Kosmas internal from last week gave her a head-spinning 58-35 lead over Feeney. This week would have been the time for Feeney to issue his own internal as a rebuttal... and his silence on the matter is extremely telling. Even in a good year for Republicans, this would be a difficult hole for Feeney to climb out of, but this year, it'd be nearly impossible. (C)

This one is all about demographics. What was once a Cuban-American GOP stronghold has turned into a pure tossup district, at least according to the latest voter registration numbers. Recent polling shows Diaz-Balart up by only three points and well below 50%, and the DCCC is spending heavily against both Diaz-Balart brothers (while the NRCC has been focusing solely on protecting Lincoln with massive independent expenditures). This one feels hard to predict, making it a perfect tossup. (J)

Well, here we are - a place I distantly imagined we might possibly reach but am nonetheless quite surprised (and delighted) to be. The race for Idaho's first Congressional District is a tossup, my friends, and this is a race rating change you can believe in.

Bill Sali has done for Democrats what even the lovechild of FDR and Howard Dean never could have: He's made a seat that's supremely conservative extremely competitive. As we've explained at great length, Sali is the perfect fuckup, capable of doing no right.

Meanwhile, Dem Walt Minnick has been an ideal candidate running a nearly flawless campaign. He's scored support from a broad range of conservatives furious with Sali's antics and ineffectiveness, and he's picked up endorsements from the region's most important papers (see here and here). What's more, the polling (particularly a recent SUSA survey) has shown a tight race. We think Minnick has put himself in an excellent position to win this race and are eager to follow the returns on election night. (D)

In any other cycle, this race would have been a barnburner: A popular, longtime incumbent narrowly upset in a wave election by a first-time candidate wages a serious comeback in a swing district. The problem is that this isn't just any ordinary cycle. Indeed, it's looking like a vale of tears for all of the Republican retreads who are seeking rematches this year.

But Northup is a special case - she was actually a replacement candidate against John Yarmuth, after her bitterly humiliating primary loss to corrupt Gov. Ernie Fletcher in 2007. Northup's fundraising network may still be intact, but her political appeal isn't. Yarmuth, who is proving to be a great fit for this district, has led comfortably in five straight SUSA polls.

Once you factor in top-of-the-ticket excitement in Louisville, the chances of Northup pulling this one off seem remote indeed. Hopefully, with three shattering losses in just twenty-four months, we won't be seeing much more of Anne any time soon. (D)

We've heard very little all cycle long in this sleepy race. When last we checked in half a year ago, malfunctioning NRCC robot Ken Spain was busy telling the world that Mike Arcuri would be vulnerable unless the DCCC spent its entire $44 million warchest to defend him.

Actual DCCC expenditures on this race? $00,000,000.00. That sort of tells you all you need to know. Rep. Mike Arcuri has raised solidly if not spectacularly ($1.5m), but that's been more than enough to keep his Republican opponent Richard Hanna at bay. Arcuri is likely to hold this seat for a long time to come. (D)

After a paper-thin margin in 2006, this R+1 district in Democratic-trending Columbus was considered a prime pickup opportunity. Once incumbent Deborah Pryce decided to flee for the hills (actually, K Street is pretty flat, come to think of it) and county commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy came back for another try, many prognosticators thought this was the Dems' single-best pickup chance. Subsequent retirements (NY-25) and retirements/sex scandals/untimely deaths/party meltdowns (NY-13) moved it down the list a bit, but it always looked good for the Dems.

The GOP scored big, though, by nailing their desired candidate, moderate state senator Steve Stivers. Polls never showed a big edge for Kilroy, and Kilroy got pinned down with various weird minutiae (like controversies over bids to build a baseball stadium and the radical leftist pamphlet alternative weekly she used to edit) that kept her from building much momentum.

However, the general trend toward the Dems seems to have pushed this race into the Lean Dem column in the last month, with polls moving in Kilroy's direction and the NRCC, in triage mode, more focused on saving incumbents than open seats. Throw in pro-life independent Don Eckhart making Stivers' task even more difficult, and this becomes a race where a GOP victory would, at this point, be quite surprising. (C)

Republicans thumped their chest pretty loudly after 2006 that Democrat Zack Space had a fluke victory and would be quickly dispatched with by a top-tier challenger in 2008. Well, it's 2008, and we see no top-tier challenger here. We do see a sadsack nobody who has raised a whopping $332,000 in a year and a half since kicking off his campaign. That's simply not enough to topple a Representative who, by most reviews, has been a good fit for his district and has provided superior constituent services.

Memo to Republicans: Better luck next year. (J)

ID-01, WY-AL: Minnick Ahead, Trauner Down in New SUSA Polls

by: James L.

Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 12:23 AM EDT

ID-01:

Walt Minnick (D): 51
Bill Sali (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±4%)

These numbers confirm Minnick's own internal polling, which also has Sali trailing by six points.

Sali's favorable rating? A dismal 33-47, compared to Minnick's 45-23. Minnick is taking 21% of self-described conservative voters, and sweeping among moderates (80-16) and liberals (94-5). No wonder the NRCC went up with a $200K ad buy last week to help stall Minnick's momentum.

WY-AL:

Gary Trauner (D): 44
Cynthia Lummis (R): 50
David Herbert (L): 4
(MoE: ±4%)

Two recent polls by Mason-Dixon and Research 2000 have given Trauner a 44-43 lead, with a high share of the undecided vote coming from Republicans. These numbers are not so kind. Also of concern are the favorable ratings of both Trauner and Lummis -- they are virtually identical (41-35 for Lummis and 42-36 for Trauner), and Lummis takes a decent chunk of the moderate vote (33%) and even 10% of self-described liberals. Democrats had hoped to portray Lummis as another Barbara Cubin, the retiring GOP Rep. who has a dismal 23-53 approval rating in this poll. When Trauner and Lummis are sitting at an equal position in terms of likeability, that doesn't bode well.

Bonus findings: McCain beats Obama by 57-37 in Idaho's 1st, and by 58-37 in Wyoming.

ID-01: Sali Heckles Minnick Staffer During TV Interview

by: James L.

Wed Oct 15, 2008 at 7:31 PM EDT

Congressman Bill Sali and his campaign staff disrupted a NewsChannel 7 reporter and a representative for his opponent during an interview Tuesday in Downtown Boise

KTVB reporter Ysabel Bilbao was interviewing Walt Minnick's campaign director John Foster Wednesday afternoon.  During the interview, someone loudly yelled and was laughing during the interview at the Grove plaza.

Bilbao and Foster initially ignored the intrusion, but quickly noticed the source of the heckling: Sali and members of his staff.

Foster stopped the interview and noted the commotion.

"I am sorry I was a little bit distracted," Foster said. "I think at some point you even have to question his maturity."

Foster said he saw Sali making faces at him and holding up "bunny ears."

What an utter boob. And Sali's response?

"Look, I think that the Minnick campaign needs to take an approach like we have," he said. "I wish they would be a little more light hearted instead of so mean spirited." [...]

After this story first appeared, a representative for Sali's campaign challenged the characterization of the incident as heckling.

"I sincerely apologize if you took it as heckling. That's absurd," spokesperson Wayne Hoffman said via e-mail. "If we can't laugh at ourselves, then what have we become?"

Here's an answer for you, Wayne: absolute idiots.

NRCC Scales Back Ad Buys in Seven Districts

by: James L.

Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 7:16 PM EDT

FL-16 - NRCC - TV - cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in West Palm and Ft. Myers
ID-01 - NRCC - TV - Spokane - cancels weeks of 10/7 and 10/14
KS-02 - NRCC - TV - Cancelled flight 10/21-10/27 in all markets
LA-06 - NRCC-TV- Cancelled flight 10/21-10/27 in Baton Rouge
MN-03 - NRCC- TV - cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in Minneapolis
NV-03 - NRCC - TV - broadcast and cable flights 10/14-10/20 cancelled
TX-22 - NRCC - TV - Cancelled flight 10/14-10/20 in Houston.

ID-01: Bill Sali's "Tales of a Fourth Grade Nothing"

by: James L.

Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 5:51 PM EDT

Minnick gave a thoughtful answer about his decision to resign from his job at the Nixon White House during the Watergate Scandal.

And here's what Bill Sali had to say:

Bill Sali was assigned a book report in the fourth grade. Uncharacteristically, he blew it off. "I procrastinated," Sali said. "When I didn't get it done, I took an F." It was the first and last 'F' Sali ever got, and it became a transforming experience for the future congressman. From that point on he always was a good student, and while he acknowledged that he dropped some classes in college because he took on too much class load, he never again failed. "It changed my focus," Sali said in a telephone interview. "It was a turning point for me because I knew I had to be serious about things."

Yup, the most formative experience of Sali's life was flunking that book report in grade school. This might explain a few things.

ID-01: Minnick Posts Another Lead

by: James L.

Thu Oct 02, 2008 at 1:22 PM EDT

Walt Minnick (D): 44 (43)
Bill Sali (R-inc): 38 (38)
(MoE: ±4.9%)

This is the second internal poll released from Minnick's campaign this month showing Sali trailing. (The first poll can be found here.)

Sali continues to post atrocious job approval and popularity numbers; his favorable/unfavorable score is 38-41, and his job approval is even worse: 29-50. If Sali were occupying a more marginal district, he'd be instant road kill. Of course, Sali could never get elected dogcatcher in a competitive district. As it stands, though, he's in trouble even in this deep red seat.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.