• IA-Sen/Gov: The newest Des Moines Register poll by Selzer & Co. has some appalling numbers for Democrats. In the Senate race, Chuck Grassley leads Democratic challenger Roxanne Conlin 57-30. And in the gubernatorial race, incumbent Dem Chet Culver trails Republican ex-Gov. Terry Branstad by almost as wide a margin, 57-33 (with Culver also trailing conservative GOPer Bob vander Plaats 45-37, although Culver beats several other GOP minor-leaguers). A 24-point beatdown is hard to believe given Culver's poor-but-not-abysmal 40/49 approval rating, and this is way out of line with R2K's polling last month, but this being Iowa, I'd be hesitant to bet against Selzer. (Discussion already well underway in desmoinesdem's twodiaries.)
• IL-Sen: Rep. Jan Schakowsky, who was considered a likely candidate in this race for a long time but eventually backed down, endorsed state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias in the Democratic primary. Giannoulias now has the endorsement of five of Illinois's twelve House Dems. Also today, Patrick Hughes, the conservative alternative to establishment GOP pick Rep. Mark Kirk, is in DC looking for support from conservative movement poohbahs. The DSCC has a well-worth-seeing video out detailing Kirk's transparent shift to the right (especially his pleas for help from Sarah Palin) as he seeks to fight off primary challenges.
• MA-Sen: The voter registration deadline to be able to participate in the primary special election to replace Ted Kennedy is this Wednesday. The primary itself is Dec. 8.
• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov (pdf): Siena's monthly look at the Empire State shows a little improvement for Kirsten Gillibrand, who now narrowly leads ex-Gov. George Pataki, 45-44. She loses 49-43 to Rudy Giuliani; weirdly, while the rumor mill has until very recently had Pataki likelier to make the Senate race than Giuliani, Pataki now seems much likelier to run for President, while Liz Benjamin is now wondering if Giuliani's recent bout of national security saber-rattling shows he's more likely to run for Senate than Governor.
Meanwhile, Siena has yet another installment in the ongoing David Paterson implosion. Paterson's approval is down to 21/79, 69% would prefer to elect someone else, and he now loses the Democratic primary to Andrew Cuomo by a 59-point margin (75-16) while, in a first, also losing the general to Rick Lazio (42-39) as well as, natch, Giuliani (56-33). Cuomo defeats Giuliani 53-41 and Lazio 67-22. Latest Cuomo rumors involve him trying to assemble a whole slate to run with, and central to that is recruiting outgoing NYC comptroller William Thompson to run for state comptroller. Having the African-American Thompson on a 'ticket' with him would take some of the awkwardness out of Cuomo elbowing aside an African-American governor to avoid a replay of the 2002 gubernatorial primary. Cuomo also wants a female AG (possibly Nassau Co. DA Kathleen Rice) and an upstate LG to balance everything out. Still, that would set up a hot Democratic primary between Thompson and incumbent comptroller Thomas DiNapoli; there's some tension between Cuomo and DiNapoli, though, so that's another instance of two birds, one stone. Finally, in case there were any doubts, Hillary Clinton confirmed that she has no intention of getting in the gubernatorial race.
• SC-Sen: Lindsey Graham, although not up until 2014, could be going the way of Olympia Snowe. There are leaks of private polls showing that more Republicans oppose Graham than support him, and that his support among independents is dwindling too. I guess that's what happens when you vote the party line only 93% of the time.
• TX-Sen: Little-noticed in the announcement on Friday that Kay Bailey Hutchison was going to delay her resignation until after the gubernatorial primary election in March means that, unless she does it immediately afterwards, the special election won't be held until November 2010. Conventional wisdom is that this is good for the GOP, as the seat will be easier to hold as part of a larger election instead of on its own. (Of course, that assumes KBH resigns at all assuming she loses the gubernatorial primary, which somehow I doubt.) The Austin American-Statesman also has a good rundown on what the delay means to all of the potential players in the special election.
• ME-Gov: The Maine governor's race may well wind up as crowded as the one in Minnesota: we're up to 21 candidates, although most of them are minor. One more medium-to-big name is getting in today on the Dem side, though: John Richardson, the former House speaker and current commissioner of the state Dept. of Economic and Community Development. Current Conservation Commissioner Patrick McGowan is also looking likely to get in the Dem field.
• WY-Gov: Former US Attorney Matt Mead has formed an exploratory committee to run for the Republican nomination in next year's gubernatorial race in Wyoming. He joins state House speaker Colin Simpson and ex-state Rep. Ron Micheli in the hunt. Mead, you may recall, was one of the finalists to be picked to replace Craig Thomas in the Senate, but that post went to John Barrasso.
• IL-11: This isn't the way to get your campaign off on the right foot: Adam Kinzinger, who has the insider backing for the GOP nomination in the 11th, stormed out prior to a debate held by Concerned Taxpayers United against his primary competition when one of them, David McAloon, had a staffer with a video camera present. The base in the district is already suspicious of Kinzinger, and ticking them off this way can't help.
• NY-25: One race in a swing district that hasn't been on anyone's radar is NY-25, held by freshman Dem Dan Maffei. He's drawn two potential challengers, wealthy ex-turkey farmer Mark Bitz and former Syracuse Common Councilor Ann Marie Buerkle. Bitz hasn't held office before, but says he's prepared to loan himself a "substantial amount" of money. He'll need it, as Maffei has been one of the freshman class's top fundraisers.
• TN-01: Fans of wingnut-on-wingnt action may be disappointed to hear that it sounds unlikely for ex-Rep. David Davis to take on slightly-more-mainstream Rep. Phil Roe (who knocked out Davis in a 2008 primary) next year. Although he's been staying visible at local tea parties, Davis is focusing on paying down campaign debt from last time.
• UT-02: It doesn't sound like Rep. Jim Matheson is going to face a primary over his health care vote after all; state Sen. Scott McCoy said he didn't intend to go after Matheson, citing the difficulty of a run given the overall composition of the GOP-leaning district.
• Biden Alert: Joe Biden is in the midst of a western swing, doing a Sunday fundraiser for Rep. Dina Titus. Today he's holding events for Ann Kirkpatrick, Harry Mitchell, Martin Heinrich, and Harry Teague, bringing the total to 26 for vulnerable House Dems he's campaigned for. Biden will also be in Connecticut next month for a Chris Dodd fundraiser.
• NRCC: To avoid a repeat of NY-23, the NRCC has basically turned the vetting process over to Grover Norquist and friends. Norquist said that at a recent meeting between the NRCC and conservative movementarians, 40 recruits were discussed and they apparently all met the litmus test (although Norquist grudgingly admitted that some of the northeasterners were "as good as it gets").
• WATN?: Ex-Rep. Bill Jefferson's going to the big house. On Friday, he was sentenced to 13 years in prison after his August conviction for money laundering and wire fraud; this is the longest sentence ever handed out to a former Congressman.
• Maps: As if electoral junkies didn't have enough online tools to geek out over, now there's this: super-helpful step-by-step instructions on how to generate a county-by-county map of the country on, well, whatever topic you want, using only free tools instead of expensive GIS software.
• Site News: We were so busy following the off-year elections that we didn't notice it at the time, but last month, the Swing State Project welcomed its seven millionth visitor. (Number six million came this past March.) Thanks, everyone! (D)
• FL-Sen: Today is the day we say goodbye to Mel Martinez, resigning to... well, he hasn't figured it out yet. Martinez leaves sounding rather downbeat, having been pilloried by much of his party for his work on immigration. And today we say hello to George LeMieux, Charlie Crist's former right-hand man and now body-double in the Senate. Interesting trivia: Kirsten Gillibrand is no longer the youngest Senator; LeMieux is a youthful 40.
• MA-Sen: The rumor du jour coming out of the Bay State is that Andy Card, the former Bush White House chief of staff, is interested in the Senate special election for the GOP. Card would be a long-shot (as would any Republican), but would at least come to the race armed with a giant Rolodex full of donors. (Wait... do people even use Rolodexes any more?)
• UT-Sen: Is Bob Bennett just ready for retirement, or is he trying to move to the left of the the gaggle of far-right primary challengers, hoping they split the wingnut vote and let him win by occupying all of the quasi-moderate Huntsman-style space in the GOP field? Either way, he took a few provocative actions yesterday, as one of only four GOPers to stand and applaud Barack Obama's call-out of the "death panel" lie last night -- which earned him the spot of Public Enemy #1 at RedState -- and earlier as one of only five GOPers to vote in favor of cloture on the Cass Sunstein nomination, who currently holds the #2 spot on the list that Glenn Beck is holding in his hand.
• NY-Gov: This is a weird-ass rumor, but apparently several different sources are telling the Weekly Standard that Hillary Clinton may bag on being Secretary of State in order to run for Governor of New York. Take with... I dunno, is there something much stronger than salt? Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani was supposed to be in the middle of a power play involving remaking the leadership of the state GOP in preparation for a gubernatorial run, but seems to be losing that proxy battle, as the insufficiently-pro-Rudy Ed Cox still seems on track to take over as state GOP chair.
• TN-Gov: Rep. Zach Wamp has an edge in the GOP primary for the open gubernatorial race in Tennessee, according to his own polling, done by the Tarrance Group. Wamp has 22% of the vote, followed by Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey at 15, Shelby Co. DA Bill Gibbons at 14, and Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam at 12. Wamp also led the field with 22 in a poll several months ago from Southern Political Report.
• CA-11: There are already a bunch of next-to-no-names running against Jerry McNerney in the R+1 11th, but the GOP has dug up someone who's at least one notch above that: Tony Amador, the former U.S. Marshal for the Eastern District of California under the Bush administration, giving him some sort-of-non-partisan law-and-order cred. Amador was the son of undocumented immigrants -- but does that make him the kind of courageous by-the-bootstraps story that Republicans love, or unacceptable to the GOP's rabid nativist base?
• MO-08: Here's an appealing-sounding recruit for the Dems to go against Jo Ann Emerson: college instructor and Army vet Tommy Sowers. He served two tours in Iraq, then taught at West Point, and now teaches at Missouri University of Science and Technology. He'll still have an uphill fight against Emerson, who hasn't drawn tough competition since her initial 1996 election, in this district that actually went for Bill Clinton but has fallen off the cliff lately at R+15.
• SC-02: If last night were a movie, the poster would say "Starring Barack Obama, and introducing Joe Wilson!" With one over-the-top line of dialogue, Wilson was catapulted from back-bench anonymity, to front-and-center among one-dimensional cartoonish House Republican villains, right next to Michele Bachmann and Jean Schmidt. While Wilson privately apologized last night, he is refusing today to publicly apologize in the House well, and Democratic House leadership seems eager to let that slide, not wanting to get distracted from the more pressing matter of health care. However, the assault from the netroots has been merciless; Wilson's 2010 opponent, Iraq vet Rob Miller (who came within 8% of Wilson in 2008 in this R+9 district), has hit the fundraising jackpot, raising over $200K since last night according to the DCCC. (Prior to last night, Miller had $49K CoH while Wilson had $212K.) This includes $135K alone at Act Blue (hint hint). UPDATE: PPP teases that they're going into the field tonight to poll SC-02; they're asking for help in drafting the poll, so be sure and give them a hand.
• CA-St. Ass.: In case you were under a rock yesterday (or had a particularly aggressive work-safe web-blocker), Republican Mike Duvall resigned immediately from his state Assembly seat in northern Orange County after getting caught on an open microphone talking in lascivious detail about his sexual transactions with a oil-and-gas lobbyist. The resulting special election in AD-72 doesn't seem likely to go to the Dems -- Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby is set to run for the seat -- but it's the least hardcore part of the OC, where John McCain won only 50-47, so it's worth paying some attention. (See californianwonder's diary for more.)
• House: Here's a GOP poll that I'm sharing simply because of the sheer irrelevance of its premise: that Nancy Pelosi is the most polarizing House Speaker since Newt Gingrich. Remember that there was exactly one Speaker in between Gingrich and Pelosi. Should it be any surprise that the highly visible Pelosi is considered more polarizing than the shapeless, flavorless DeLay-puppet Dennis Hastert... or that the GOP paid good money to ascertain that?
On January 3, 2008, roughly 240,000 Iowans attended Democratic precinct caucuses, and at least 90,000 of them ended up in Barack Obama's corner.
However we felt about Obama during the primaries or the general election campaign, whatever we think about his substantive and symbolic actions since the election, we can all agree that he would not be sitting in the Oval Office if Iowa caucus-goers had put him in third place, or even a distant second.
I started writing this diary several times last year. I kept abandoning it because emotions were so raw on Democratic blogs that I felt the piece would only ignite a flamewar. Since more than a year has passed, I decided to try one more time.
I do not mean to start an argument or pretend that I have all the answers. I just enjoy thinking about counterfactual history (such as this or this).
After the jump I will try to figure out whether Hillary Clinton or John Edwards could have beaten Obama in Iowa.
A year ago tonight, nearly 240,000 Iowans spent a couple of hours in overcrowded rooms during the Democratic precinct caucuses.
Thousands of others came to freezing cold Iowa to knock on doors or make phone calls for their presidential candidate in late December and early January.
Share any memories you have about caucusing or volunteering in this thread.
After the jump I re-posted my account of what happened at my own caucus. I was a precinct captain for Edwards.
I do most of my writing at the Iowa progressive community blog Bleeding Heartland.
Last year at this time I was scrambling to make as many phone calls and knock on as many doors as I could before the Iowa caucuses on January 3.
This week I had a little more time to reflect on the year that just ended.
After the jump I've linked to Bleeding Heartland highlights in 2008. Most of the links relate to Iowa politics, but some also covered issues or strategy of national importance.
I only linked to a few posts about the presidential race. I'll do a review of Bleeding Heartland's 2008 presidential election coverage later this month.
Up until this point this story has involved a lot of speculation and not a whole lot of real facts.
It now appears that she is indeed interested in the Senate seat and is taking all of the steps that someone who was seeking a seat like this would take, including reaching out to political figures in New York.
Then who would Gov. David Paterson appoint in her stead? Paterson needs to think about, among other things, a) removing potential threats to his governorship and b) earning some serious favors and goodwill. Picking AG Andrew Cuomo ships a contender off to DC, and would also let Paterson earn a second chit with an appointment to the Attorney General post.
Alternately (as Trapper John suggested to me), he could pick someone like Rep. Nydia Velazquez (NY-12), which might burnish his support among Hispanics and women. TJ also tossed out Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown as a dark-horse choice: young, African American, and from upstate. I in turn proposed ultra-dark-horse candidate DavidNYC, but I admit the odds of a second Jewish guy from New York City getting tapped to represent this state in the Senate are fairly slim.
There's still no shortage of names out there, of course. As always, who do you think Paterson would pick, and who should he pick?
Rep. Nydia Velazquez is the front-runner - for now, at least - to replace Hillary Clinton if she becomes the next secretary of state, a source close to Gov. Paterson said yesterday.
There are two other top contenders: Rep. Brian Higgins of Buffalo and Rep. Steve Israel of Long Island. Each would help Paterson with key constituencies when he makes his first run in 2010 for the post he inherited from disgraced Gov. Eliot Spitzer - upstaters in Higgins' case and suburbanites in Israel's.
Late Update (David): Looks like Clinton might actually accept, to my surprise. If true, let the games begin!
Sometimes, I still feel disappointed about this election. Sometimes, I keep asking myself "Where's Hillary?" Sometimes, I become frightened at the thought of Democrats losing. Sometimes, I still wish I could see Hillary back on the campaign trail again.
Sometimes, I wonder what the hell I'm doing now. But you know what? I just can't keep looking back. I can't let Hillary down now.
I started out the week on Monday with a trip to State College to meet with the PSU College Democrats. I took the time to give special thanks to the PSU Dems for their hard work getting students registered to vote in this election. It really is encouraging to see how interested young voters throughout the district are about this election. I think our young people realize that they have to get involved and make a difference in this election.
This is off-topic from down-ballot races, but I felt compelled to post; the Democratic presidential primary debate in Philadelphia was an embarrassment. Not to our party, mind you, nor to either of our candidates. Rather, it was an embarrassment for the media, and for the entire profession of journalism. The economy is tanking. The war in Iraq continues on as an endless, unmitigated disaster. Next to no one can afford health care. Yet, what questions did these oh-so-esteemed debate moderators throw at Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama? Questions fed to them by the likes of Sean Hannity about Obama's acquaintanceship with a former 60's radical, who is neither a campaign advisor nor a close friend of the senator's. Questions about whether Clinton believes Obama can win. Questions about Obama's reluctance to wear a flag pin. A flag pin?!?!?!?! The Bush administration has our country on the ropes and all these media bobbleheads can talk about is a flag pin!?!?!?!? It's no wonder winning is such an uphill battle for our party; with such idiocy so rampant, I'm amazed that even half the country votes our way!
All the more reason for us to press onward and win these down-ballot seats, where the media spotlight doesn't linger long enough to turn the proceedings into a complete circus. Progressivism truly has to start from the ground up; in this info-tainment age, it's the only chance we've got!
It's been a very busy week for the campaign with many highlights:
Monday March 24: I attended the Voices of Central PA dinner in State College. It was a very nice event and I got the chance to speak with the truly progressive minded people who support Voices. The questions were tough but fair and I really enjoyed the Indian food on the buffet at the India Pavilion restaurant where the event was held. The food was a little on the spicy side but was very good.
Tuesday March 25: I spent the late afternoon and evening getting signs out to people. You always get the chance to speak with your supporters while delivering signs and the feedback was good. I did get home in time to catch American Idol with Kelly and Amanda. Not as important as the Obama / Clinton race but Kelly, Amanda and I seem to be pulling for David Cook and Brooke White.
The spat between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama shows no sign of ending anytime soon. McCain is going to win this election, likely by 6-10%. Obama is damaged goods and Hillary's negative are simply too high. I believe voters are in the process of rejecting both candidates.
And I don't think there's a realistic way of getting through McCain's huge teflon coating and getting swing voters to doudt his :maverick" image.
So how does this impact the Congressional elections? Right now, not yet. But it's important that this long battle between Obama and Clinton could weaken the Democratic brand. And I actually think Barack Obama would more of a drag on downballot races than Clinton would be.
I know that's contrary to the CW, but I just don't think Hillary Clinton is as radioactive to other Democrats.
So the leaders of the DSCC and DCCC have to make a decision. How and when to separate from the presidential race? And waht about the 527s who are about to pour millions in to a likely hopeless presidential election? Will they save enough for House and Senate races?
Disclaimer: I am not a Clinton supporter. This diary is not in support of Hillary Clinton, nor in opposition to Hillary Clinton. In my mind, Hillary, Obama, and Edwards all have a pretty good shot at being president. The reason I am writing about Hillary's cabinet is that she has more well-established connections than the other two, which makes it easier to speculate who might be in her cabinet.
Who do you think will be in Hillary's cabinet? My guesses below the fold.
I am proud to report that the Texas Democratic Party's ePrimary Poll has been a huge success. Because of your help spreading the word to our fellow Democrats, in just five short days, over 7,200 Texas Democrats have cast their vote for President!
That's over five times the number of Texas Republicans who cast their vote in last weekend's exclusive Straw Poll. And we're not done yet! With one more day left to vote, all Texas Democrats still have a chance to make their voices heard in the next presidential election.
The enormous participation in the TDP ePrimary Poll is evidence of a Democratic Party on the rise in the Lone Star State. While Texas Republicans had only third-string candidates and embarrassingly low turnout at their VIP-only Straw Poll last weekend, Democrats from every corner of the state are energized by our Party's strong field of presidential candidates and showing their excitement for 2008 in the ePrimary Poll.
Democrats believe our state and nation are better served when more people participate, and the ePrimary Poll is a way for all Texas Democrats to get involved in the primary process and weigh in as our Party selects a presidential nominee. Tell the country which Democrats you want to see take over the White House!
If you haven't voted in the ePrimary Poll, there's still time. Texas Democrats have until TOMORROW at 11:59pm to cast their vote for any one of our Democratic presidential candidates.
During the Texas Democratic Party's recent Town Hall Tour, I traveled nearly 10,000 miles and visited with thousands of Democrats. And I am proud to report that Texas Democrats are unified, energized and eager to win in 2008!
Like most Americans, Democrats from Texarkana to El Paso are tired of George Bush's failure and ready for a change in the White House. That's why I am very pleased to announce that the Texas Democratic Party is holding our first-ever ePrimary Poll, a weeklong online event that will give Texas Democrats a chance to support their favorite candidate for President.
Starting today, Democrats across the Lone Star State have the opportunity to cast their vote for any of our outstanding presidential candidates at the TDP website. After Republican leaders weakened the influence of Texas voters by failing to move up our state's primary election, the TDP is doing everything we can to ensure Texas Democrats have a say in determining the next president of the United States. Now is the time to make your voice heard!
Once, many of the issues we talk about on this blog were discussed mostly among Rust Belt labor unions or in street demonstrations. But tough questions are increasingly being asked in a variety of places, from the ivory tower to the campaign stump... and in both instances, the focus is on a change in the rules of globalization, rather than perpetuating the stale debate about whether "yes" or whether "no" on globalization. Witness Harvard's Dani Rodrik's new paper, articulating what he says is now the "new orthodoxy" on trade:
We can talk of a new conventional wisdom that has begun to emerge within multilateral institutions and among Northern academics. This new orthodoxy emphasizes that reaping the benefits of trade and financial globalization requires better domestic institutions, essentially improved safety nets in rich countries and improved governance in the poor countries.
Rodrik goes on to push this new orthodoxy further, articulating what he calls his "policy space" approach, allowing countries to negotiate around opting-in and opting-out more easily of international rules and schemes as their development and domestic needs merit. Citing the controversy around NAFTA's investor-state mechanism and the WTO's challenge of Europe's precautionary approach in consumer affairs, Rodrik poses the following challenge to the orthodoxy:
Globalization is a hot button issue in the advanced countries not just because it hits some people in their pocket book; it is controversial because it raises difficult questions about whether its outcomes are "right" or "fair." That is why addressing the globalization backlash purely through compensation and income transfers is likely to fall short. Globalization also needs new rules that are more consistent with prevailing conceptions of procedural fairness.
And this focus on a change of rules hit the political arena today, with a major policy speech by former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.). See here. Among the important points, that thus far are only being articulated by Edwards among the top candidates:
* For years now, Washington has been passing trade deal after trade deal that works great for multinational corporations, but not for working Americans. For example, NAFTA and the WTO provide unique rights for foreign companies whose profits are allegedly hurt by environmental and health regulations. These foreign companies have used them to demand compensation for laws against toxins, mad cow disease, and gambling - they have even sued the Canadian postal service for being a monopoly. Domestic companies would get laughed out of court if they tried this, but foreign investors can assert these special rights in secretive panels that operate outside our system of laws.
*The trade policies of President Bush have devastated towns and communities all across America. But let's be clear about something - this isn't just his doing. For far too long, presidents from both parties have entered into trade agreements, agreements like NAFTA, promising that they would create millions of new jobs and enrich communities. Instead, too many of these agreements have cost us jobs and devastated many of our towns.
*NAFTA was written by insiders in all three countries, and it served their interests - not the interests of regular workers. It included unprecedented rights for corporate investors, but no labor or environmental protections in its core text. And over the past 15 years, we have seen growing income inequality in the U.S., Mexico and Canada.
*Today, our trade agreements are negotiated behind closed doors. The multinationals get their say, but when one goes to Congress it gets an up or down vote - no amendments are allowed. No wonder that corporations get unique protections, while workers don't benefit. That's wrong.
So, our movement has made real progress when things like Chapter 11, Fast Track and the precautionary principle are even being discussed by politicians and academics in the context of trade policy debates. And hopefully Edwards' raising of these issues will put pressure on the other candidates to follow suit. In the meantime, you can help turn the nice words into action by clicking here.
I know we often make fun of lawyers in this country ("What do you call a smiling, sober, courteous person at a bar association convention? The caterer."). On the other hand, there's a lot to be said for the value of training in law for political leadership. The Clintons (Bill, Yale; Hillary, Yale), Barack Obama (Harvard), John Edwards (UNC), and Harry Reid (George Washington U.) all have law degrees.
Then we have our Republican mis-leadership. There's George Bush with an Master's in Business Administration. That's the same degree that Duke Cunningham and Jeff Skilling have. There's Rep. Shelley Moore Capito with a Master's in Career Counseling. That's the same degree as... well, actually, no one comes to mind. Bush and Capito share a mis-understanding of the law, too. Whereas Bush missed the week in high school civics class about constitutional checks and balances, after six years in Congress Rep. Capito still hasn't figured out the basic mechanics of when a law is needed.
Our tracking signals indicate that Dole rarely travels to North Carolina, whereas Miller seems to be in perpetual campaign motion there. And Republicans like Dole are out of favor for sticking so close to President Bush, are they not? We thus conclude that Miller would beat Dole like a tympanic skin-a drum, I believe you call it.
Ok, now that I have your attention, to the poll. This poll (link at bottom) consisted of 800 likely voters pulled from the voter rolls.
First, lets hit on the big and simple numbers.
Bush's approval in North Carolina is 37%, with 59% Disapproval.
This number has been fairly consistent for a while. If anything this number is worse than it has been in the past.
