• CT-Sen: Pro wrestling CEO Linda McMahon is apparently doing the things that normal candidates do when running for office, starting with her first radio ad. However, she's already having to acknowledge that she hasn't done a good job recently of doing another thing that normal politicians do, which is vote. She skipped the 2006 general election (the same year in which she donated $10K to the DCCC) and also the 2008 GOP primary.
• DE-Sen: There are a couple of interesting rumors that Delaware scribe Ron Williams (who doesn't have the highest batting average out there) examines: one is that Beau Biden may run for AG again instead of Senate. (However, Williams seems to debunk that rumor, using some pretty definite phrasing in saying that "AG Biden will soon announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat..." and also saying that Mike Castle is unlikely to want to run against Biden.) Meanwhile, there are rumors that the state's other Senator, Tom Carper, is having some health problems and may not seek re-election in 2012. Carper himself denies the rumor, though, saying he's fine. New Castle County Exec Chris Coons gets flagged as a likely Carper successor, though.
• MA-Sen: The bill to allow a temporary appointed Senator to fill Ted Kennedy's seat until the Jan. 19 special election cleared another hurdle yesterday, passing the state Senate 24-16. A reconciled version still has to pass both houses but could do so today, so conceivably we could have a Deval Patrick signature today too. The momentum today seems to be with former DNC chair Paul Kirk, not Michael Dukakis for the appointment; Kennedy's widow Victoria and sons Patrick and Teddy Jr. now all publicly back Kirk for the job (Kirk now chairs the JFK Presidential Library).
Meanwhile, former Red Sox rightie (although he'll always be a Phillie to me) Curt Schilling says he won't run for Senate. However, City Year head Alan Khazei made his entry into the race, on the Democratic side, official today.
• CA-Gov: Two decidedly unsurprising developments: ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman formally "opened" her Republican candidacy with a rally and her first ads (although technically she's been running since February), while AG Jerry Brown opened an exploratory committee for the Dem nod.
• NJ-Gov: Yet another poll of the New Jersey governor's race shows Chris Christie with a sizable lead, although Jon Corzine does break through that 40% ceiling that's been plaguing him. Rasmussen shows Christie ahead of Corzine 48-41, with independent Chris Daggett at 6%. Rasmussen's previous look in early September pegged it at 46-38. And if there's any doubt about what Jon Corzine's last-ditch strategy is for winning this thing, check out this picture of his new billboard.
• VA-Gov: After a bit of post-debate waffling on the issue last week, Creigh Deeds came out in favor of new taxes to fund transportation projects. Promising to raise taxes is always a risky strategy, but given how paralyzed northern Virginia is, taxes to build infrastructure might actually be a winner in that part of the state. Also, Josh Goodman has a thoughtful piece on Deeds' belated momentum in the polls: it's a delayed reaction to the Bob McDonnell thesis, as it took a while to trickle down, via negative ads, to the non-WaPo-reading rabble.
• AR-04: It's looking like the scandal surrounding Blue Dog Mike Ross, concerning his sale of a $263K pharmacy to the USA Drug chain (which is actively lobbying in the health care debate) for $420K, may have some legs. Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington filed a complaint with the Justice Department asking for an investigation if there was a quid pro quo. Ross is busy attacking the messenger, calling ProPublica.com (which broke the story) a "leftist" organization.
• NY-23: The NRCC is up with a radio ad in the 23rd, and Dede Scozzafava's camp seems flummoxed by it, to the extent that her spokesperson publicly asked the NRCC to save its money instead of spending it this way. The ad spends most of its time attacking Dem Bill Owens, trying to link him to Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi, with only a brief mention of Scozzafava's positive qualities at the end. Scozzafava already questioned the NRCC's airing of an anti-Darrel Aubertine ad when it looked like he'd be the candidate, and in a weird development, the NRCC's website features a link to a story from Human Events questioning whether Scozzafava is too liberal. Not exactly what we'd call "teamwork." Meanwhile, Bill Owens just got the endorsement of the regional SEIU, ordinarily a foregone conclusion for a Democrat but maybe not a sure thing with labor-friendly Scozzafava in the mix.
• SC-01: Carroll "Tumpy" (his actual nickname) Campbell III made it official; he'll be challenging Henry "Smoky" (that's just our unofficial nickname for him) Brown in the GOP primary. The challenge from the son of the popular governor may prod the rather lackadaisical 73-year-old Brown into retirement.
• VA-02: Democratic freshman Rep. Glenn Nye got a sixth potential GOP opponent, in the form of Scott Taylor, a businessman, former Virginia Beach mayoral candidate, and former Navy SEAL. Taylor isn't even the only former Navy SEAL running (so too is Ed Maulbeck); other GOPers are auto dealer Scott Rigell, Army Reserve Brig. Gen. Bert Mizusawa, businessman Ben Loyola, and former local GOP chair Chuck Smith. Although Nye's R+5 district poses a theoretical challenge, note that none of his challengers has held elective office.
• Mayors: Boston mayor Tom Menino, who's been in office for 16 years, had the weakest electoral showing of his mayoral career in yesterday's primary election, pulling in 50.5% of the vote against a fractured field. He'll face off in November against city councilor Michael Flaherty, who finished second with 24%. Flaherty, who is also an insider, doesn't present as much as a contrast with Menino as the candidates who fell by the wayside.
• FL-Sen: Another sign that the wheels are falling off the Marco Rubio bus: he's cutting back on senior staff. His campaign manager, Brian Seitchik, will be off the payroll next week, and his fundraiser, Ann Herberger, is also gone. About the changes, Rubio said, "This is not a purge or anything, quite the contrary." In other words, they're probably out of money.
• NH-Sen: Ovide Lamontagne picked up a key backer, as the conservative base continues to look for an alternative to the may-be-a-RINO Kelly Ayotte. Former State Rep. Maureen Mooney, who was John McCain's liaision to NH conservatives during the 2008 primary campaign, has said she's backing Lamontagne, saying he's a "principled and experienced conservative."
• SC-Sen, SC-01: Interesting rumblings out of the Palmetto State: now that Jim DeMint has turned himself into Public Enemy #1 in the last few weeks, all of a sudden people sound interested in challenging him. State Senator Brad Hutto was in Washington meeting with the DSCC about the race; Hutto has been looking for a chance to move up, starting with the 2010 governor's race, but deferred to friend and state Sen. Vincent Shaheen on that one. Attorney Ashley Cooper (a former Fritz Hollings aide) is reportedly also interested in taking on DeMint, or also in running in the 1st, where Rep. Henry Brown barely won last year.
• NC-Gov: Civitas, a local Republican pollster, stops to gawk at the Bev Perdue trainwreck, finding that her approval is at 30/44 and that right now only 26% would vote to re-elect her. They also look all the way ahead to 2012 and find that Republican Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory would win a rematch, 46-32.
• MN-06: Independence Party 2008 candidate Bob Anderson, whose 10% of the vote may have tipped the balance to Rep. Michele Bachmann last year, says that he may make another run in 2010. (Don't forget that while Elwyn Tinklenberg received the IP's endorsment in 2008, Minnesota doesn't allow fusion voting with candidates running on multiple ballot lines, so Anderson went ahead and ran in the primary, winning it and getting the IP nod for the general. Our best hope here may be for Minnesota to follow Oregon's recent lead and legalize fusion voting.)
• NY-23: In the 23rd, with Darrel Aubertine out (and New York Senate fans heaving a sigh of relief), the Dems still seem to be casting about for a replacement. Yesterday evening was the extended deadline for receiving applications, and some of the remaining serious contenders still haven't applied. Dan French, a lawyer and former Daniel Moynihan aide, and former NY-23 candidate Robert Johnson seemed to have not been planning to run (but contingent on Aubertine running), and said yesterday that they were interested but would have to have the requisite talk with their families first. (So do the Dems extend the deadline again? That remains to be seen.) 2008 candidate Michael Oot has already submitted his application, though. Another name for the Conservative Party nom has surfaced: "locally famous" conservative activist Jon Alvarez, who is currently serving in Iraq.
• CT-Sen: I guess I wasn't dreaming when I thought I heard economist and talking head Peter Schiff say he was still looking into the GOP primary for the Connecticut Senate race Tuesday night on the Daily Show... apparently he's making a full-court press all week gauging his support for a run. Schiff is a favorite of the Paulist wing of the party, and true to anarcho-libertarian form, he shrugs off the fact that he can't remember the last time he voted.
• FL-Sen: The Club for Growth doesn't get involved in Senate primaries very often (RI in 2006 and NM in 2008 being the exceptions), but the fact that Marco Rubio met this week with the CfG and they admitted to being "impressed" suggests that they might get involved here. The CfG may still be reluctant to get involved, though, simply given the unlikely return on their investment with the long odds Rubio faces against Charlie Crist.
• NY-Sen-B: Writer Jonathan Tasini, who got 17% in a challenge from the left to Hillary Clinton in the 2006 Senate primary, announced that he's going to run against Kirsten Gillibrand in the 2010 primary. It's still as unclear as ever if Rep. Carolyn Maloney will officially join Tasini in the hunt (and Tasini getting in may make it more difficult for her, seeing as how Tasini would eat into her share of the purer-than-thou vote), but Maloney seems to be testing out various attack lines against Gillibrand in a prerecorded interview with NY1 that will air tonight. Meanwhile, Gillibrand got another prominent endorsement today, although this one may help her more in the general than with the liberal base: former NYC mayor Ed Koch.
• UT-Sen: Somehow Bob Bennett has become flypaper for wingnuts lately. He's pulled down his fourth primary challenger, businessman and conservative activist James Williams.
• NJ-Gov: The Philadelphia Inquirer looks at a new conundrum for both Jon Corzine and Chris Christie: picking running mates. (This is the first New Jersey gubernatorial election since the creation of the Lt. Gov. position, a need made apparent by the resignations of both Christie Todd Whitman and Jim McGreevey.) This looks like an exercise in ticket-balancing, both in terms of gender and geography. State Senator Diane Allen from the Philly burbs in Burlington Co. (who declined the chance to run in NJ-03) may have the inside track for the GOP nod, although (paging open seat fans) one other name that gets a mention is NJ-02's Rep. Frank LoBiondo.
• OK-Gov: No surprise here, but AG Drew Edmondson today officially launched his exploratory campaign for the Democratic nomination for governor. Edmondson faces Lt. Gov. Jari Askins in the primary, giving the Dems two strong candidates facing a steep climb uphill against Oklahoma's ever-darker shade of red.
• DE-AL: Rep. Mike Castle said today that he won't seek the newly-open position of ranking member on the Education and Labor Committee, saying he wanted GOP stability on the panel. While this doesn't help us know whether he's planning to run for the Senate or retire, it does send a pretty clear signal the 69-year-old Castle isn't staying in the House.
• FL-24: This race is barely a couple days old, and already it's one of the most heated in the nation. Once Winter Park City Commissioner Karen Diebel announced her run, some local Democrats (although not the Kosmas camp) began pointing to a 2007 Orlando Sentinel article discussing some of her odd actions and outbursts. That brought on a counterattack from state GOP chair Jim Greer, who attacked freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas directly for gutter politicking.
• NV-03: The NRCC hasn't had much luck on the recruiting front in this D+2 district in the Las Vegas suburbs to take on freshman Rep. Dina Titus. Local banking executive John Guedry looks willing to step up to the plate, though, saying he's "seriously considering" it. Other possible GOPers include former Clark County GOP chair Brian Scroggins and former state Controller Steve Martin.
• SC-01: With Linda Ketner turning down the rematch against Rep. Henry Brown, all eyes have turned to state Rep. Leon Stavrinakis as a potential Dem nominee. He said he'll make a decision "sometime in July."
• TN-09: Rep. Steve Cohen is getting fundraising help from an interesting source, and still one of the most powerful forces in Memphis politics: former Rep. Harold Ford Sr. At first this seems odd, since Ford campaigned against Cohen and in support of his son, Jake Ford, in the 2006 general election (where Ford was running as an independent). However, Ford Sr. is a long-time foe of Cohen's 2010 primary opponent, Memphis mayor Willie Herenton, so that would tend to explain it all.
• FL-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with a new poll of the Florida gubernatorial race, and it gives Democrat Alex Sink a very early 38-34 edge against Republican AG Bill McCollum. Although this is the first poll where we've seen Sink leading, we have plenty of mileage to burn through before these polls begin to get interesting. (J)
• NY-Sen-B: Carolyn Maloney released an internal poll showing her with a not-worth-writing-home-about 34-32 "lead" over incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand. Surprise, surprise: After some message-testing business, Maloney shoots up to 49-25. The poll presentation has some pretty harsh words for Gillibrand... is Maloney really drinking her own kool-aid? (D)
• NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall, North Carolina's Secretary of State, sounds almost enthused at the idea of running against Richard Burr in a recent interview with the Dunn Daily Record. Saying it's a challenge that she "thinks I'm up to", Marshall says that she'll give the race more consideration once the current legislative session ends. (J)
• PA-Sen: There have been toplines for a Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll (taken for a labor 527) of the Pennsylvania Senate race floating around the interwebs for a few weeks, but Open Left snagged a copy of the whole memo. Highlights include Arlen Specter over Joe Sestak in the primary by a 55-34 margin. Specter leads a Generic Dem 50-37, and leads Sestak 50-42 after message-testing mumbo-jumbo, giving Sestak some room to grow. The poll also notes that almost one half of the Dem electorate is union households, making Specter's vote on EFCA that much more paramount.
• FL-24: First-term Democratic Rep. Suzanne Kosmas has her first GOP challenger: Winter Park City Commissioner Karen Diebel. A bare bones website hypes Diebel's "proven conservative leadership". (J)
• NY-23: New York Independence Party Chair Frank MacKay says that his party will endorse Democratic state Sen. Darrel Aubertine if he chooses to run for the open seat of outgoing GOP Rep. John McHugh. (J)
• SC-01: In an email to her supporters, '08 candidate Linda Ketner says that she won't seek a rematch against GOP crumb-bum Henry Brown next year. She informed two potential Brown challengers of her decision: Leon Stavrinakis, a state Representative from Charleston, and Robert Burton, a former member of the Board of Commissioners of the SC State Housing Finance and Development Authority. (J)
• NRCC/NRSC: A big fundraising haul for last night's joint fundraising dinner for the NRSC and NRCC, headlined by Newt Gingrich: $14.45 million, split between the two committees. As Politico observes, though, it was a flop from a messaging standpoint, as anything substantive that might have been said was overshadowed by the will-she-won't-she drama concerning Sarah Palin's appearance (she made a cameo after all, but didn't speak). UPDATE (David): It's worth noting that this was actually the smallest take in five years for this dinner.
• NYC-Mayor: Bloombo's re-elects stand at just 40-55 in a new New York Times/NY1/Cornell University poll. In June of 2005, he was at 48-44. However, his putative opponent, Comptroller Bill Thompson, clocks in with a microscopic 13-2 approval rating. Bloombleberry's been plastering the airwaves with ads for months, but it just doesn't feel like Thompson has really engaged this race at all. (D)
• AL-St. Senate: The Virginia primary is tonight's main course, but there's an tasty side dish in Alabama: a special election to fill the state Senate vacancy left behind by now-Rep. Parker Griffith in the 7th District, centered on Huntsville. Democratic state Rep. Laura Hall is considered to have a bit of an edge over GOP businessman Paul Sanford.
• ME-Legislature: Here's something you don't see everyday: the Maine House of Representatives endorsed abolishing itself (and the state Senate), and joining Nebraska in the land of the unicameral legislature, mostly in order to save money on overhead. When it comes up for a final vote, it'll need to pass by a 2/3s measure, though, and there weren't enough votes in the House for that, so this may not actually ever happen.
• NJ-Assembly: Newsroom New Jersey takes a quick look at where the hot races for control of the New Jersey Assembly will be in Nov. 2009. The greatest volatility seems to be on the Jersey Shore, as both parties are looking there (in the 1st and 2nd districts) for the likeliest flips. Dems currently hold the Assembly by a sizable 48-32 edge.
• Redistricting: OMGz! Did you know that there are sites on the series of tubes where new technology lets average political junkies get involved in the redistricting process? Rep. Lynn Westmoreland just found out about this worrisome new trend.
• MN-Sen: Despite the seemingly increased likelihood that he'd jerk Al Franken around now that he doesn't have to worry about re-election and how impatient Minnesotans feel about the Senate vacancy, Gov. Tim Pawlenty says he'll certify Al Franken as winner of the Senate race if the state Supreme Court directs him to do so. Also, many are interpreting John Cornyn's comments about how the Senate GOP doesn't have the votes to filibuster Sonia Sotomayor, even if they wanted to, as being a tacit admission that Franken would be seated soon.
• NC-Sen: It never quite seemed likely, but Elizabeth Edwards silenced any speculation that she might run for Senate against Richard Burr next year.
• KY-Sen: Here's a new name sniffing out the Kentucky Senate primary. A staffer for Rep. Ed Whitfield from KY-01 just bought both domain names for "whitfieldforsenate.com" and "whitfieldforgovernor.com" (and inexplicably paid $800 for the two names). Maybe SoS Trey Grayson may have some company in the primary if Jim Bunning truly does bail out?
• VA-Gov: Ex-Del. Brian Moran leaked an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner to Political Wire. Lo and behold, it shows Moran in the lead, with 29% to 27% for Creigh Deeds and 26% for Terry McAuliffe. (Meaning that in the last week, each of the three primary candidates have led a poll.) (UPDATE: PPP points out a flaw here: this isn't a topline, but the result from a subsample that's disposed to do well for Moran: people who've participated in Democratic primaries prior to last year's presidential race.)
Fundraising numbers for the three candidates also just came out: McAuliffe is way ahead on the money front, with $1.8 mil raised last quarter and $1.3 mil CoH ($7 mil total). Deeds raised $676K with $521K CoH ($3.8 mil total), and Moran raised $844K with $700 CoH ($4.8 mil total).
• MN-Gov: With T-Paw getting out, a flood of second-tier Republicans has spilled out in search of the nomination. State Sen. David Hann, state Sen. Geoff Michel, state Rep. Marty Seifert, state Rep. Paul Kohls, and former legislator Charlie Weaver are "interested." Former Auditor Pat Anderson is going so far as to say she'll announce in a month or two. Others mentioned include state Rep. Laura Brod, national committee member Brian Sullivan, and former state House speaker and current Labor and Industry Commissioner Steve Sviggum. The Star-Tribune also mentioned former Rep. Jim Ramstad (who'd do well in the general but may be too moderate to survive the nominating convention), state Sen. minority leader David Senjem, and one very big wild card... Norm Coleman, although his dragging-out of the Senate race can't have helped his favorables. One prominent name who apparently isn't interested: Rep. Michele Bachmann.
• MI-Gov: The Republican field in the Michigan governor's race got even more crowded, as Oakland Co. Sheriff Rick Bouchard got in. (Bouchard lost the 2006 Senate race to Debbie Stabenow.) Bouchard's entry was faciliated when his boss, Oakland Co. Exec L. Brooks Patterson, declined to run -- but Bouchard may do exactly what Patterson would have done, which is split the Detroit suburban vote with AG Mike Cox, making it easier for Rep. Pete Hoekstra from the state's west to sneak through.
• CO-04: Ex-Rep. Marilyn Musgrave fired off a rather unhinged-sounding fundraising letter on behalf of her new employers in the culture war, the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List. This may actually work to Rep. Betsy Markey's advantage; she made reference to Musgrave's letter in her own appeal for contributions.
• FL-17: Politics1 has an interesting, if a bit unsavory, rumor coming out of south Florida: 83-year-old former Rep. Carrie Meek may get on the ballot in FL-17, essentially to act as a one-term placeholder for her son, Rep. Kendrick Meek. (If he lost the Senate race, she would re-retire in 2012 and thus let him get his old job back. Or, if Meek won the Senate race, she'd still retire and let someone new take over FL-17.) Meek denied the rumor, though, to National Journal.
• FL-25: Here's a potentially big name to take on Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, who beat Joe Garcia by a small margin in 2008. Miami Mayor Manny Diaz is reportedly taking a look at the race; his name has also been mentioned in connection with the open Lt. Gov. slot.
• NC-11: PPP's Tom Jensen looks at possible Democratic successors in this R+6 district if Rep. Heath Shuler gives up the seat to run for Senate. He cites state Sens. John Snow and Joe Sam Queen as likeliest. (He also links to a great map from Civitas that calculates the PVI for all of North Carolina's state Senate districts.)
• SC-01: Rep. Henry Brown threw a "thank you" party in Myrtle Beach for his supporters, and at least 11 people walked away with the best possible tokens of his gratitude: diarrhea and nausea. State health officials are investigating to see if it was the result of food poisoning or just of the Republican rhetoric. Also, 2008 challenger Linda Ketner, who came close to knocking off Brown as an openly lesbian candidate in a dark-red district, may not be looking to run again. She did a refreshingly honest interview with FireDogLake, maybe a little too refreshing vis-a-vis her future viability, in terms of referring to "the conservative, religious crazy vote" and outing several prominent South Carolina politicians.
• UT-LG: A third generation of Romneys is getting warmed up (in a third state). Mitt Romney's 33-year-old son Josh has been in talks with soon-to-be-Gov. Gary Herbert about the open Lieutenant Governor's position.
• AL-St. Senate: Democrats can still be a downballot force in Alabama, managing to hold a state Senate seat in a deep-red part of rural Alabama north of Mobile. State Rep. Mark Keahey (who's only 28) narrowly defeated Republican former state Rep. Greg Albritton, in a special election triggered by the January death of Democratic Sen. Pat Lindsey. (UPDATE: Actually, it turns out that the margin wasn't so tight. Keahey crushed Albritton by a devastating 58-42 margin.)
• NH-St. House: In another special election, Democrats held a state House seat based in Lebanon, New Hampshire, as fire captain Andy White beat Republican Randy Wagoner. It's Democratic-leaning turf, but the GOP turned this into a proxy battle over gay marriage (White is a vote in favor of it), and out-of-district money enabled Wagoner to outspend White at least 4-to-1.
• NRSC/NRCC: The NRSC and NRCC announced yesterday that Alaska governor Sarah Palin would headline their fundraising dinner in June, which is a big 'get' since she couldn't be bothered to come out all the way to DC for CPAC. The Anchorage Daily News then reported that Palin wouldn't be attending after all. Turns out that one hand of PalinCo doesn't know what the other is doing... the appearance was arranged through SarahPAC, while the actual governor's office had no idea this was happening. The NRCC and NRSC still say "that to their knowledge" she's still coming.
• SC-01, SC-02: Linda Ketner is sounding a little iffy about a rematch against Henry Brown, worried about diminished African-American turnout in an off-year election (and also the costs; even wealthy philanthropists get hit by the recession). Former state rep. Mike Barber and state rep. Leon Stavrinakis are possibilities if she demurs. Next door, though, Iraq vet Rob Miller has begun fundraising for a rematch against Joe Wilson.
• OR-04: Peter DeFazio may get his first substantive challenger in ages; the GOP is recruiting Springfield (the district's 2nd largest city) mayor Joe Quimby Sid Leiken to run. While DeFazio would still be a heavy favorite in such a race, he's been mentioned frequently as a potential 2010 gubernatorial candidate, and in this D+0 district the GOP could be competitive with an open seat.
• VA-02, VA-05, VA-11: Southern Political Report takes a look at potential challengers to the three new Virginia freshmen. In VA-02, the only Republican in the race so far is Chuck Smith, an African-American, former chair of the Virginia Beach GOP, and an ex-Navy JAG, although moderate state senator Ken Stolle and Virginia Beach mayor Will Sessoms are eyeing the race. In VA-11, wealthy businessman Keith Fimian is interested in a rematch, but so is Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity, who recently narrowly lost the special election to replace Gerry Connolly as chairman of the Fairfax County Board.
• CT-Sen: Robbie Simmons may not have the GOP field to himself in his bid to unseat Chris Dodd: CT GOP Chairman Chris Healy tells The Hill that former Ireland Ambassador Tom Foley and state Sen. Sam Caligiuri will also run in the Republican primary. (J)
• AL-02: Add another name to the retread watch -- state Rep. Jay Love says he's considering challenging frosh Dem Rep. Bobby Bright in a rematch next year. Another name tossed around as a potential candidate for the GOP is none other than George Wallace, Jr., who lost an open seat race in this very same district as a Democrat in 1992 to Terry Everett. (J)
• CT-Sen: All the warning signs are there for Chris Dodd, and now a respected pollster confirms that even "Generic R" holds the incumbent well under 50%. In all likelihood, a serious race is in store here for Team Blue, so SSP is moving our rating on this race to "Likely Democrat." (D)
• CA-32: The Governator has finally set the dates for the special election to replace Hilda Solis in the House: July 14. But the key date to watch is May 19, when there will be a special primary for the seat. With a number of strong Dems in the race, including state Sen. Gil Cedillo and state Board of Equalization Chairwoman Judy Chu, the real action is in the primary in this D+17 district. (Candidates of all parties rumble in one primary, and if one candidate breaks 50%, there is no general. With a third solid Dem in the race, investment banker Emanuel Pleitez, breaking 50% will be difficult, setting up a likely general election between the top Dem and a sacrificial GOPer.) (J)
• SC-01: Looks like GOP Rep. Henry "Smoky" Brown might be facing a pretty crowded primary field in 2010. In addition to yesterday's news that Carroll "Tumpy" Campbell III would run against the crusty incumbent, Paul Thurmond, the son of the late Strom Thurmond, is now saying that he too is considering taking on Brown. (J)
• PA-Sen: Roll Call does some interesting number crunching, revealing just how bad a position Arlen Specter starts from in a GOP primary against Pat Toomey. The problem is that Specter beat Toomey by only 17,000 votes in 2004, but Republican enrollments in Philadelphia and its suburbs (Specter's base, and location of most of the state's moderate Republicans) have dropped by 83,412 since then. With a closed primary, Specter may have to rely on moderate ex-GOPers who switched parties in 2008 to switch back tactically for 2010 to save his bacon in the primary. (It's not unheard of: Ed Rendell wooed pro-choice Republicans to temporarily switch over for his 2002 gubernatorial primary against pro-life Bob Casey Jr.)
• CT-05: Connecticut's executive director of the state Office of Military Affairs (and former Rob Simmons aide) Justin Bernier has resigned his post. Bernier told the New Britain Herald that he's doing so in order to lay the groundwork for a run against Chris Murphy (who had little trouble disposing of state senator David Cappiello in 2008).
• Census: There wasn't much doubt that incoming Commerce Secretary Gary Locke would have command over the 2010 Census (rather than direct White House control), but the White House officially confirmed the arrangement today.
Survey USA for WCSC Live5 News (10/25-26, likely voters):
Linda Ketner (D): 45
Henry Brown (R): 50
(MoE: ±4.1%)
I suspect this weekend's Research 2000 poll showing Democrat Linda Ketner within 9 11 points in this very conservative district piqued a lot of people's interest, but may have gotten shrugged off as too-good-to-be-true. Well, if that didn't rouse Henry Brown from his seemingly decade-long slumber, this will: we have not just confirmation from another public pollster but an even closer result: SurveyUSA has Ketner back just 5.
The poll's writeup states that African-Americans comprised 20% of the sample. This seems plausible, as the African-American population of the district was about 21% according to 2006 census estimate. With highly motivated AA turnout, though, we could see an even closer race.
Daniel Johnson (D): 37
Patrick McHenry (R-inc): 52
(MoE: ±5%)
If a year ago... or heck, even a month ago... you'd told someone that we'd be looking at dyed-in-the-wool dark-red southern districts like SC-01, SC-02, or NC-10 as being potentially competitive, derisive laughter would have been the proper response.
Well, here we are talking about them. While these numbers don't suggest that the GOP is likely to lose any of them, these districts shouldn't even be up for discussion. Consider that these districts are R+10, R+9, and R+15, and imagine the mirror image, which would be, say, the Democrats having to sweat the loss of MA-06, NY-04, and MA-01 while watching more precarious seats slip away from them.
The only race of the three that's within the single digits is the suddenly very-interesting SC-01 race between incumbent Henry Brown (at this point, probably best known for his lack of fire safety skills) and businesswoman and philanthropist Linda Ketner in this Charleston-based district. The idea of a Deep South district (although this Lowlands district is less evangelical than the stereotypical southern district) electing not just a progressive but an openly lesbian representative is nothing short of mind-boggling, but with the DCCC jumping in and Ketner able to self-finance too, it can't be ruled out.
If you're not familiar with the sordid story of Henry Brown (which Democrat Linda Ketner nicely summed up in thirty seconds), I'd suggest that you educate yourself. Long story short: GOP Rep. Henry Brown started a forest fire that destroyed 20 acres of a national forest. Brown was fined $7,000 for the damage, but he refused to pay up and fought tooth-and-nail to change the law in order to make it harder to prosecute people who burn down national forests. Pardon my language, but that's fucked up.
Democrat Linda Ketner has been waging a long shot but well-funded campaign against Brown since the start of the year, and she appears to have blindsided the extremely crusty, extremely arrogant Brown with her attack ads on the issue. So what does Henry Brown do in response?
DavidNYC had more on this sordid story of reckless behavior, abuse of power, and bureaucratic cowardice last week. I'm glad to see Ketner taking this issue onto the airwaves. GOP Rep. Henry Brown could very well be the King of the Crumb-bums.
A senior federal official, fearful of incurring a congressman's wrath, sent subordinates on a mad dash earlier this year to retrieve a certified letter demanding payment of $5,773 for starting a fire that burned 20 acres of a national forest.
Mark Rey, undersecretary of agriculture for natural resources, said he didn't want U.S. Rep. Henry Brown to receive the March 12 letter before he testified before a U.S. House committee on which the South Carolina Republican sits.
"I'd just as soon have him not take a chunk of hide out of me," Rey said Wednesday.
Wow. Just wow. What kind of fucking banana republic bullshit is this? This is the sort of thing that must warm Dick Cheney's corpse of a heart: A federal official responsible for enforcing the law lets a powerful congressman off the hook to avoid getting grilled in a congressional hearing. In his own words:
Rey defended his decision to intercept the letter as "a reasonable precaution" to prevent Brown from "stewing on it while he's sitting up there on the dais" of the U.S. House Natural Resources subcommittee, which oversees management of national parks and forests.
What. The. Fuck. It's now reasonable to ignore the law to save your own hide? I guess that's been the Cheney Doctrine for the past eight years, so it should be little surprise that an incompetent, amoral bureaucrat would follow that path. What's more, Brown didn't just get his penalty reduced, he got the law changed:
As a result of Brown's case, the Forest Service in June rewrote a criminal code to make it more difficult to prosecute people who negligently set fires on federal land - about 80 fires a year in the South alone.
"It will be much harder for us to go after people who allow fires to escape from their property onto the national forests," said Jack Gregory, who was the Forest Service's top law enforcement agent in the 13 Southern states at the time of Brown's 2004 fire.
Not a surprise for a guy who clearly believes he's above the law:
"I was so taken aback that I'd be treated so impersonal - like I was some kind of crook," Brown said Wednesday. "Those were criminal charges that were filed against me. I felt like I was the victim." ...
Brown then went on a personal crusade in which he complained about his penalty in numerous e-mails, letters and phone exchanges with U.S. Forest Service employees in Washington, South Carolina, New Mexico and elsewhere.
Unsurprisingly, a whistleblower complaint charging Brown with obstruction of justice was dropped. We can only hope that Brown's opponent this year, Linda Ketner, can make an issue of his special privileges and law-breaking ways, because in Dick Cheney's world, there's just no accountability.
