Enough has happened in the past few weeks for me to do one of my occasional Oregon political news roundups. Specifically, the following four stories will be covered:
1. Gordon Smith the Elitist-Smith is revealed to be at least the 10th richest member of Congress.
2. One expensive movie ticket-The Governator no shows for a Smith fundraiser, choosing to appear via satellite.
3. Republican Wingard gets hit for child abuse conviction in new ad.
4. Democrats continue rise in voter registration.
Jeff Merkley (D): 45 (39)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 46 (47)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
There's been a decided shift in momentum in the last few weeks in this race: the Merkley internal poll giving him the lead (and giving Smith a catastrophic 61% disapproval rating), a panicky Smith dropping his 'nice guy' image to run sleazy attack ads, and Willamette Week pounding away at Smith on the hiring-illegal-immigrants front (with new research released today, interviewing five people who were illegals at the time of employment for the Prince of Peas).
Well, we have some confirmation from a public pollster: Rasmussen, who last month seemed to show a race slipping away from Merkley, shows a huge bounce-back for Merkley, now down just by 1. Significantly, Merkley leads 46-42 among unaffiliated voters.
We at SSP had been suspecting that where there was smoke, there was fire; with confirmation from a public pollster, we feel confident in upgrading this race to "Tossup."
Over the weekend, skywaker9 diaried about Gordon Smith's outrageous new ads accusing Jeff Merkley of being soft on sex offenders. The ads, of course, are bogus and misleading, and Merkley is hitting back with a pair of his own spots released today:
The first ad features Kristi Gustafson, an Oregon law enforcement officer, defending Merkley against Smith's "lies and innuendo". It's an effective spot.
Gordon Smith is making a dangerous play with his ads, hoping to saddle Merkley with a Willie Horton-type of situation. It's a kind of nastiness I haven't seen in an ad since the 2005 Virginia gubernatorial campaign, when Tim Kaine was pilloried in attack ads for serving as a defense attorney to clients charged with homicide. We all know how that one turned out for Jerry Kilgore.
I sort of wonder if this could be Gordon Smith's Nancy Johnson moment -- an example of an incumbent who everyone thought was "nice" suffering from a heavy backlash after releasing over-the-top attack ads against their political opponents.
It's a bit too early to tell, but Gordo is skating on some thin ice.
It's 49-37 Smith in SUSA's first poll of the Oregon Senate race.
Gordon Smith leads among women 48-39, peels off 28% of Democrats, and wins 18-34 year-olds, 53-29%. Sample is 100% white, and breaks down 41D-37R-21R. Smith even leads in the Portland region.
This was taken just before Smith's latest attack ads, and there are serious questions about Merkely's financial ability to fight back. So is this another screwy SUSA poll, or can this one be written off?
Yesterday I wrote about how Gordon Smith and the Oregon Republican party had released a web ad and website smearing Jeff Merkley's record. Today, the DSCC fired back with a brilliant ad nailing Gordon Smith on the war on Iraq. See more below the jump...
Proof that Jeff Merkley is gaining fast in his quest to be the next Senator from the great state of Oregon increases by the day. In the latest, the Oregon GOP goes after Merkley's supposed campaign finance violations and then puts up a pathetic website attempting to smear Merkley's tax record. More below the jump.
Rasmussen (7/15, likely voters) (6/11 in parentheses):
Jeff Merkley (D): 43 (38)
Gordon Smith (R-inc.): 41 (47)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
I was not expecting this, at least not so soon, but now we have a public poll that shows Jeff Merkley with a very small lead over Gordon Smith in the Oregon Senate race. (Rasmussen also now gives alternate results with 'leaners' pushed: if so, the race is tied at 46/46.)
Smith's favorability numbers have also dropped since the last poll. Last time, 58% of voters viewed him either very or somewhat favorably; this month it's 53%. Coupled with a re-elect number well below 50%, and with only a 3% edge among men, that all spells trouble for Gordo. Maybe all the lashing himself to the mast of the Good Ship Obama isn't helping him much.
The following is a review of Oregon's primary and a preview of Oregon's fall elections now that the primary results (with the exception of Ballot Measure 53) are certified. Crossposted from Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/16/121742/983/269/536725).
As I noted in my wrap-up of the OR-Sen Democratic primary, Speaker Jeff Merkley and the Democrats have the grassroots, the issues, and the momentum. All Republican Gordon Smith has going for him is a campaign bankroll just shy of $5 million.
Smith is unquestionably vulnerable. With enough resources, Merkley will be able to cut through Smith's spin and deliver the facts of Smith's record to the voters of Oregon. But, of course, he'll need the support of people throughout the grassroots and the netroots.
To that end, I have added Merkley to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and am announcing the "Twenty Twenties for Jeff Merkley" effort. Basically, I'm pleading with twenty of you to contribute at least twenty dollars via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page toward helping Jeff Merkley oust Gordon Smith. Can twenty of you spare twenty bucks to bounce a bum like Republican Gordon Smith from the hallowed halls of the U.S. Senate?
I think we can get twenty twenties in by the end of Memorial Day weekend. Please contribute if you can. Thanks yet again!
Oregon House Speaker and U.S. Senate candidate Jeff Merkley has his first TV spot up on the air!
The ad highlights Jeff's history as a fighter for Oregon's progressive values and Jeff's commitment to going to the U.S. Senate to end the war in Iraq, protect a woman's right to choose and gain accessible health care for all.
