11:30pm: The AP has called the last race we were watching, in GA-07. The race to succeed John Linder will be heading to a runoff between Rob Woodall (37) and Jody Hice (26). Clay Cox (20) didn't make it. And with that, we seem to be through for the night.
11:11pm: A few more calls on the GOP sides in the House races. GA-08 has been called for Austin Scott, who clears the bar at 53%. In GA-09, Tom Graves (at 49%) and Lee Hawkins (27) got called for a runoff. And in GA-12, Ray McKinney (43) and Carl Smith (27) are officially runoff-bound.
11:04pm: The AP has called the Dem primary in GA-04 for Hank Johnson, without a runoff. He's at 55, with 27 for Vernon Jones and 18 for Connie Stokes.
10:43pm: Well, that's it for the Ox. The AP just called Nathan Deal as the other participant in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. With 80% reporting it's Handel 33, Deal 24, Johnson 20, and Oxendine 17.
10:25pm: Bad news... with 82% reporting, Austin Scott's up to 53% in the GOP primary in the 8th. I'd rather have Jim Marshall face him after having gotten beaten up in a runoff. On the other hand, in the super-red 9th, Tom Graves is sinking, down to 49%, with 86% reporting. Looks like he's likely to face Screamin' Lee Hawkins for a fourth time this year, in another runoff.
10:23pm: At least one member of the Porter household is going home happy tonight; Carol Porter has been called the winner of the Democratic Lt. Governor primary.
10:10pm: The AP has put a big "R" next to Karen Handel's name (for runoff, presumably), but no call yet for Nathan Deal on joining her.
10:06pm: John Barrow is leading Regina Thomas 68-32 in GA-12 on the D side, with half reporting, but still no AP call.
10:04pm: And I think the candidate for the biggest upset of the night is GA-07 on the GOP side, where the highly-touted state Rep. Clay Cox isn't even making the runoff. Linder CoS Rob Woodall is at 38 and talk radio host Jody Hice is at 26, with Cox at 19. Couldn't have happened to a nicer teabagger.
10:02pm: With more than half reporting, Hank Johnson's still in the safety zone in the D primary for GA-04. He's at 55, with 27 for Vernon Jones and 18 for Connie Stokes.
10:00pm: In case you were wondering about GA-02, the AP has called the GOP primary for state Rep. Mike Keown, with 80% against scattered opposition. He's fundraised fairly well, so Sanford Bishop will have to take this one seriously in November.
9:57pm: With 56% reporting, we're seeing John Oxendine slipping into 4th place, not that that matters other than for reverse-bragging rights. It's Handel 32, Deal 25, Johnson 19, Oxendine 18.
9:33pm: Major excitement in both GA-08 and GA-09. (By SSP standards, which, admittedly, are pretty low.) Austin Scott has noodged just ahead of 50% in the 8th, up to 51%, with about half reporting. And in the 9th Graves is right about 50%.
9:26pm: The AP has now leapfrogged the GA SoS as being the fastest results outlet, so retrain your sites on either the AP or Politico links below. And guess what? They just called the Democratic gubernatorial nomination for Roy Barnes, who has 63% of the vote with 45.5% reporting. On the GOP side, Handel leads Deal by 33-25.
9:05pm: With 21% in, the GOP side of the governor's race is further solidifying. It's Handel 33, Deal 25, Oxendine 18, and Johnson 18. Oxendine might be lucky to make 3rd place.
9:00pm: I think this is going to be the night's most exciting race: Austin Scott vs. the runoff line, in GA-08 on the GOP side. He's currenly at precisely 50.0%, with 36% reporting. Ken DeLoach is 2nd, at 33.
8:57pm: The runoff is in three weeks, on 8/10. I can only imagine how Georgians are going to spend the next three weeks getting intimately acquainted with all the details about Nathan Deal's family's auto salvage business.
8:52pm: Another gubernatorial update. Barnes is at 58%, looks like he can go on vacation salt away money while Handel and Deal fight the runoff. I say Handel and Deal because Oxendine keeps dwindling: it's currently Handel 30, Deal 27, Oxendine 19, Johnson 17.
8:38pm: Fail of the day: Oxendine is in 4th place in his home county, Gwinnett.
8:36pm: In the gube race, Roy Barnes is pulling further ahead, beating Baker 57-21 with 13% in. On the GOP side, it's Handel 31, Deal 25, Oxendine 19, Johnson 17.
8:34pm: Ah, that's better. Hank Johnson has righted his capsizing island, with 7% in in the 4th. He's up to 56% now, with 24 for Jones and 20 for Stokes.
8:32pm: Maybe Clay Cox wasn't in the driver's seat as much as I'd thought, in GA-07. With 8% in, he's trailing former John Linder CoS Rob Woodall, 38-23. Radio talk show host Jody Hice is nipping at his heels, too, at 20.
8:30pm: We've finally got some action in GA-04. With only 1% reporting, things haven't really solidified yet, but the numbers show Hank Johnson in the lead but below the runoff line. He's at 47, with Vernon Jones at 30 and Connie Stokes at 23.
8:20pm: Mildly amusing: In GA-13, BaseConnect client Deborah Honeycutt is losing to businessman Mike Crane by 34-28 according to the GA SoS. Honeycutt earned headlines last cycle for raising and spending an absurd $5 million in her unsuccessful campaign against Democrat David Scott. (Most of that money, as you may recall went straight back to BaseConnect, which at that time was still called BMW Direct.) Honeycutt's fundraising hasn't been the same this cycle, though.
8:16pm: In GA-09, Rep. Tom Graves might get forced into yet another runoff. He's hovering at 48.5% right now, with Steve Tarvin and Lee Hawkins splitting the anti-Graves vote.
8:14pm: I know the Dem AG primary was grabbing a lot of attention. It didn't turn out to be very competitive, either: it's Hodges 72, Teilhet 28.
8:11pm: On the Dem side in the governor's race, Barnes is still holding at 54. Baker is at 20, Poythress is overperforming (relatively speaking) at 10, and Porter is at 8. And in the Dem Senate primary, not much to see, with Michael Thurmond at 82, R.J. Hadley at 18.
8:09pm: And with that, Deal's in 2nd. With 7% reporting statewide, it's now Handel 31, Deal 24, Oxendine 20, Johnson 15. Has the Ox been gored?
8:07pm: We're up to 5% reporting statewide, and Nathan Deal's starting to creep back up. Now it's Handel 32, Oxendine 22, Deal 21, Johnson 15.
8:05pm: Here's a small surprise: it looks like NRCC prize pick Austin Scott may need to go to a runoff in the GOP primary in GA-08. Even though most of his competition dropped out, pastor Ken DeLoach is still faring pretty well. Scott leads DeLoach 46-34, with someone named Diane Vann at 19.
8:02pm: In the House races, we're getting a clearer picture in the 12th: Regina Thomas is definitely performing better this year, but still not enough. With 7%, Barrow leads Thomas 64-36, about where a lot of those other HCR-related primary challenges to Blue Dogs wound up. It looks like we'll have to go to a runoff to find who Barrow's opponent will be (probably between Ray McKinney (40) and Carl Smith (26)).
8:00pm: Things are smoothing out a little now that we're up to 2% reporting. (Those first counties, esp. Fannin, appear to be in Deal's GA-09.) Handel's at 28, Oxendine at 24, Deal at 19, and Johnson at 18. On the Dem side, Barnes is still above the runoff line at 54 with Baker at 22.
7:45pm: Some very early votes are in, and so far, Barnes leads Baker by 55-18. Nathan Deal (!) leads Oxendine by 34-24, but this is still way early.
This thing is about to go off.
An 9-5 Democratic map probably. I will quickly give a rundown of the districts followed by a few maps of the districts.
District 1 (blue): 46% black and 45% white, probably John Lewis territory more than anyone else but man would the folks in Paulding and Bartow counties be pissed to be in a district with the west side of ATL. Probably the most ridiculous district.
District 2 (green): 45 percent white and 44 percent black, amazing considering how all the black population is concentrated in a chunk of Fulton and a sliver of Clayton. David Scott would probably run here.
District 3 (purple): 48% white and 42% black, Clayton and east Dekalb make this a Democratic district probably. I have no idea what Democrat would run though.
District 4 (red): 49 percent white, 39 percent black. Probably my favorite district. White percentage doesn't necessarily represent GOP percentage because of Clarke county which is 60% white yet 60% Democratic. I think Hank Johnson would want this one or...
District 5 (yellow): Very diverse district, 40 percent white, 34 percent black, 17 percent Hispanic, 8 percent Asian. Similar to the 4th, white percentage includes liberal whites in east Fulton/ west central Dekalb. Another possibility for Hank Johnson?
District 6 (teal): 49% white, 25 percent black, 19% Hispanic, 6% Asian. Getting desperate here but this would no doubt be a Democratic district due to once again liberal whites in ATL plus the majority-minority status of the district. Have no idea who would represent this but definitely not Tom Price.
District 7 (gray): Finally a GOP seat in Metro ATL (6-1 delegation for Dems so far)! Tom Price and Phil Gingrey battle it out here for a 76 percent white, safe GOP district.
District 8 (periwinkle): I'm pretty sure I helped Jim Marshall out with this one stretching across Middle GA. 56% white, 39% black probably pretty close to 50-50 for Obama/McCain (7-1 Dems).
District 9 (light blue): Screwed up a little here but Barrow should be safe. 54% white, 40% black so less black than now. I was attempting to get a Democratic south east GA district by diluting Barrow's district but you'll see that's not happening... (but we have a 8-1 Dem advantage).
District 10 (neon pink): 65% white and 28% black. Not quite good enough to elect a Democrat considering the hostility of SE GA whites towards Democrats (8-2 Democrats).
District 11 (yellow-green): pretty much the same as Sanford Bishop's pre 2006 district. 52 percent white and 41 percent black I think a Democrat would be fine here (9-2 Democrats).
Districts 12-14: well the Republicans had to go somewhere... All these districts are between 75 to 82% white. I think the 12th would be Westmoreland's, the 13th is similar to the open 9th and the 14th get's rid of Paul Broun so hurray for that!
With the three additional GOP seats that brings me to a 9-5 Democratic advantage. Pretty unrealistic but entirely possible if not for the VRA guidelines. Honestly though I think this might expand black representation because of the additional metro ATL seats but I worry in a bad cycle the 11th and the 9th could be in danger for Democrats. Still even if those fell we'd be tied 7-7, gaining a seat.
While it may feel like we wrapped up the election cycle on Tuesday, there are always more elections to come. This post covers the special and runoff legislative races coming up in the next month. There are three other important races, the Mass. Senate race and the Houston and Atlanta mayoral runoff races, that will be covered in a future post.
Dems have a chance at picking up one seat in California, two in Tennessee and one in Kentucky, while they are defending another seat in Kentucky, one in Georgia and one in Iowa. There are also two interesting inter-party fights going on in the Georgia runoffs.
This is cross posted on my new blog dedicated to following special elections and culling absentee ballot information from all states into one spot to increase turnout in local races. To read more about each race and learn more about the candidates, click here.
I am sure I left out some races - I hope you will let everyone know about them in the comments and I will be sure to write about them shortly
SD-01 (R): Former State Rep. Buddy Carter (R) creams former Chatham County Commission Chair Billy Hair (R) 82.1% to 17.9%. I figured Carter would win, but I had no idea it would be that lopsided.
SD-35 (D): There will be a runoff, we just don't know which two of the four million nine candidates (all Democrats) will be on the ballot. With 69% of the vote in, the three most likely candidates seem to be former State Senator Donzella James, Torrey Johnson (my favorite), and Benny Crane. EDIT: As I've been writing this, the AP has called the race for a James-Torrey Johnson runoff.
HD-58 (D): The AP is calling a runoff between Democrats Asha Jackson (my least favorite of the four Democrats in the race) and Simone Bell (who would be the second openly gay member of the General Assembly ever and the first from a racial minority and my favorite for mostly unrelated reasons).
HD-75 (D): Democratic prodigal son (he's a bastard child) Ron Dodson has reclaimed his seat, defeating Republican Shawn James 60.1-39.9. In a night we're we seem to be fucking ourselves, we do it again. Dodson left the party before, works for big healthcare, says his biggest goal is tort reform, had failing ratings on the environment, and was for the gay marriage ban.
HD-129 (R): In the all-Republican special, Kip Smith barely missed an outright win in his father's former seat and will now face total wingnut Steve Earles in the runoff. The guy that seemed the least of four evils came in third. Smith is bad but Earles is a complete nut.
HD-141 (D): We should be thankful for crazy splinter Republicans. Political neophyte, wingnut, and recent college grad Casey Tucker siphoned over 500 votes from the more established Republican Angela Gheesling-McCommon. As it stands now, she and Democrat Darrell Black are separated by sixteen votes (with Black leading) for the right to face indepedent Rusty Kidd in the runoff.
HD-159 (R): The race to replace the aforementioned Buddy Carter wasn't a race at all, like I expected. Former State Rep. Ann Purcell (whom Carter unseated in the primary) defeated fellow Republican and self-professed "true conservative" Jesse Tyler 79.2-20.8
The runoffs for SD-35, HD-58, HD-129, and HD-141 (and Atlanta Mayor) will be on December 1. A more thorough rundown of the candidates and districts can be found here.
I think the map is just not realistic enough to pass. Even if we can elect Democrat Roy Barnes as Governor, the best we could do is probably a bipartisan redistricting. Anyway, this is the map I would draw if I could decide what the Georgia map would be. I planned to try for an 8-6 Democratic map with creating a new Democratic district and weakening one Republican. If I tried really hard, I might have created a new Democratic district in the Atlanta metropolitan area. I did not want to weaken new Democrats and Obama turnout may have overestimated the Democratic Party strength around Atlanta. However, the minority population around Atlanta is growing quickly. This will make the Democrats stronger there. Just so people know, Safe Democrat/Republican means that the district is solidly for one party. Likely Democrat/Republican means that the district appears safe but could become competitive. Lean Democrat/Republican means that the district will be competitive but one party is ahead. Toss Up means that the district could go either way. Now here are the maps (Yes, I finally did not use a camera to get these shots.)
North Georgia
South Georgia
Atlanta area
District 1 Jack Kingston (R) Blue
I kept this district mostly the way it is. It contains most of southern Georgia but Democratic areas are taken into the 2nd, 3rd and 12th district. I took out some counties that were in the 12th to get them into here. I also extended this district to take in some Conservative parts of Warner Robins. Jack Kingston and any Republican should have no trouble here. It probably voted 69% for McCain.
Stats are 21% African American and 71% White. Status is Safe Republican.
District 2 Sanford Bishop (D) Green
Unfortunately, I had to weaken Bishop a bit to strengthen Democrat Jim Marshall in the 8th district. I put in some Republican counties that were originally part of the 8th. The district contains the southwestern part of the state which leans Democratic but extends east a bit to take in Republican counties that were in the 8th. Basically, I made the map of southern Georgia look like the map it used to be. Still, Bishop has been winning easily and unless he faces a big challenge, he should continue to win. I think that McCain won here with 51% of the vote.
Stats are 43% African American and 49% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 3 Lynn Westermoreland (R) Purple
Not much change to this district. All I did was remove some African American areas in the Republican counties this district contained. Since many African Americans are moving out of the Atlanta core, the African American population is growing here. Still, it should not be enough to affect the leaning of this district. I was also surprised that this district is more rural than suburban. Its growth was below the Georgia average. I think McCain won about 68% of the vote here.
Stats are 19% African American and 75% White. Status is Safe Republican
District 4 Hank Johnson (D) Red
This is one of the African American majority districts. It is centered in De Kalb County and for population purposes; I gave it a slice of Gwinnett County. I had to reduce the African American percentage a bit to strengthen other districts. Still, the only threat to Hank Johnson is a primary challenge. Obama probably won about 77% of the vote here.
Stats are 52% African American, 12% Hispanic and 29% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 5 John Lewis (D) Yellow
I kept this district mostly where it used to be and it should stay safe. It is another African American majority district. Even though I took out a few Atlanta precincts and extended the district into Cobb County, it is still very safe for John Lewis. This is a solid district and since Lewis is very popular, he does not even have to worry about a primary challenge. Obama probably won with 75% of the vote here.
Racial stats are 52% African American, 7% Hispanic and 36% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 6 Tom Price (R) Teal
I hope I put enough Democrats in this district to knock out Tom Price. Even though I kept some areas of the old 6th district in such as Roswell, this should not be much of a threat to a Democratic takeover. I removed all of Cherokee which gave McCain a margin of 48,000 votes. The rest of the old district probably gave a 20,000 vote margin to McCain. I removed all of Cobb County too and added part of Gwinnett County. I even sent a little finger down into Atlanta to pick up some heavily African American precincts. In parts of the South, the electorate is almost completely racially polarized. That means that race almost completely determines the party. In this district, the percentage of White Democrats is much higher than the percentage of minority Republicans. With the inclusion of a bit of Atlanta, this will weaken Price and he may want to run in another district even though he lives in Roswell. He was elected in 2004 so he is not as entrenched as he could be. I believe that Obama won about 52% of the vote here.
The racial stats are 18% African American, 14% Hispanic, 8% Asian and 58% White. Status is Toss Up/Lean Democrat depending on the competition.
District 7 John Linder (R) Gray
This district mostly contains the leftovers from other districts in Gwinnet County. I designed this to take in all the Republican parts of Gwinnet County and other Republican suburbs. If the minority growth in the Atlanta area does not slow down, this district might be more competitive in about ten years. For now, it is safe for John Linder. McCain probably won here with about 67% of the vote.
The racial stats are 10% African American, 7% Hispanic and 79% White. Status is Safe Republican.
District 8 Jim Marshall (D) Light Purple
Marshall recently has had a few close races in a district that voted 56% for McCain. This is why I decided to focus on strengthening his district. I extended it further east to pick up heavily Democratic Hancock County and Washington County. I sent this district further west to pick up Talbot, Macon and a few other Democratic counties. I had to remove the swing county Newton because Mac Collins (R) lives in it and he gave Marshall a very tough race in 2006. Most of the southern Republican counties in this district went to the 2nd and 1st districts. With the addition of Democratic counties and the exclusion of more Republican ones, I was able to increase the African American percentage from 32% to 41%. That should be high enough to protect Marshall. I estimate that Obama won about 51% of the vote in this district.
The racial stats are 41% African American and 53% White. Status is Likely Democrat.
District 9 Nathan Deal (R) Bright Turquoise
I did not change this district much. What is there to change anyway? The district was pretty Conservative before and it is still heavily Republican. If the growth in Atlanta continues, the counties closest to Atlanta in this district will start filling up with people. That should be the only change to this district. Either way, it is Republican for the foreseeable future. McCain probably won 72% to 77% of the vote here.
Racial stats are 6% African American, 10% Hispanic and 82% White. Status is Safe Republican.
District 10 Paul Broun (R) Bright Pink
I should say what I said about the 9th district. No Democratic will win here anytime soon. It will be even harder for one because I removed Athens from this district. I put it back into the 12th. The only bit of worry Broun should have is that Gainesville in Hall County has a fast growing Hispanic population. It should not be enough to alter the politics of the district too much. I estimate that McCain got about 70% of the vote here
. The racial stats are 10% African American, 10% Hispanic and 77% White. Status is Safe Republican.
District 11 Phil Gingerly (R) Light Green
Due to large population growth, this district just shrunk down to size. Also, I extended it into Cobb County which is more densely populated so that was another reason for the shrinking of this district. Even though Gingerly had a weak district when the Democrats drew the 2002 map, I gave him a strong one now. The reason I could not give him a weaker district was that I had to protect the 13th. Anyway, I do not believe Gingerly would be weakened enough if I gave him the Democratic parts of Cobb County. Cobb County voted 55% for McCain and the Republican suburbs make the Republican percentage increase. I estimate that McCain won here somewhere in the neighborhood of 65% of the vote.
The racial stats are 14% African American, 7% Hispanic and 75% White. Status is Safe Republican.
District 12 John Barrow (D) Light Blue
Again, I tried to make the lines resemble the 2002 Democratic redistricting. I gave Barrow all the Democratic parts of Savannah, Augusta and extended the district up to Athens. Whites are now a minority so I do not see the Republicans winning here. Even if Max Burns, the former Congressman from this district runs, he should not beat Barrow. I estimate that Obama won with 58%-60% of the vote here. Barrow is safe with the inclusion of Athens and the exclusion of Republican counties.
The racial stats are 43% African American and 49% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 13 David Scott (D) Tan
I kept his district pretty much the same except that I moved out the eastern part of his district. This district looks a bit gerrymandered because I moved it everywhere I could to pick up African American areas. Even though this district includes less of Clayton County than it used to, this district should still be heavily Democratic. I did not include enough African American areas to make their population go above 50% so this is not protected by the Voting Rights Act. Still, David Scott should have no problem getting elected here. Obama probably won here with about 70% of the vote.
The racial stats are 46% African American, 11% Hispanic and 39% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 14 No Incumbent Algae Green
This is really an eastern extension of the 2002 redistricted 13th. I send this district up into Gwinnet County to take in some heavily African American and Hispanic precincts. It also goes into Democratic trending Rockdale and Newton Counties. They are trending Democratic so quickly. Kerry won 40% of the vote in Rockdale County and Obama won 54%. Even though Whites are a plurality here, this district should have no trouble going for a Democrat. I estimate that Obama won here somewhere in the mid 60's.
Racial stats are 38% African American, 13% Hispanic, 6% Asian and 41% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
I set out to draw what the post-census congressional districts of Georgia might look like if we fail to win the governorship or take back one of the houses of the state legislature. I get nauseous when I look at this map, so I think I did a decent job. After all is said and done, this map will probably elect four Democrats and ten Republicans.
When the Republicans DeLaymandered Texas, they mainly targeted moderate, white Democrats, and I think the Republicans in Georgia will probably try the same thing, so Jim Marshall and John Barrow are toast under this map. The other two goals of the Republicans will most likely be to hog the new 14th district for themselves, and to make sure John Linder's district won't have trended out from under him by the year 2022, especially since he will most likely retire before then.
Without further ado, here are the pictures.
Northern Georgia:
Southern Georgia:
Greater Atlanta:
District 2 (Sanford Bishop vs. Jim Marshall):
District 5 (John Barrow):
District 1 - Jack Kingston (Light Blue) - Kingston's district picks up some of Savannah's African-American residents in order to remove them from Barrow's district, and it shrinks somewhat in size, but this district should still be safe for him.
District 2 - Sanford Bishop vs. Jim Marshall (Dark Green) - While the old 2nd District was majority white and confined to Southwest Georgia, the new 2nd is majority-black and sprawls from Columbus to Augusta, and includes both Sanford Bishop's home in Albany and Jim Marshall's home in Macon. I think Bishop is an overwhelming favorite here, because it contains much more of his former territory than Marshall's, and because he is African-American, which is always a plus when you're running in a majority black district. If Marshall wants to stay in public life, he would probably want to either move to the 10th or 14th and run there, or retire and plan to either run for Senate or Governor in 2014.
District 3 - Lynn Westmoreland (Dark Purple) - Lynn Westmoreland's loses Henry County and its portion of Douglas County, and picks up some territory near the Alabama border, as well as Monroe County. It is probably even more Republican than it is in its current form.
District 4 - TBD (Red) - With Nathan Deal running for Governor, I have no idea who this district's representative will be, but unless hell freezes over, they will be a Republican who can stand to be weakened a bit, since Deal's current district has a PVI of R+28! This district gets a new number (it used to be the 9th), and picks up part of Gwinnett County, while shedding some territory in the North Georgia Mountains. This district may look different, depending on where Deal's replacement lives.
District 5 - John Barrow (Yellow) - This district is drawn for the sole purpose of defeating John Barrow. Barrow loses many of his African-American constituents to the 2nd, and to a lesser extent, the 1st. On top of that, there is a tendril that extends into some deeply conservative areas to the north of Augusta. Barrow will have a tough time holding this one.
District 6 - Tom Price (Teal) - This district, which was once represented by Newt Gingrich, changes very little, losing a small section of North Fulton, as well as Dunwoody, in DeKalb County, to the 7th district. Population growth is sufficient that it doesn't take in any new territory.
District 7 - John Linder (Gray) - In an attempt to make sure Gwinnett County's trend in our direction doesn't imperil John Linder, this district loses much of Gwinnett to the 4th District (formerly the 9th), and to the new 14th. To compensate for this, it picks up small sections of North Fulton, as well as Dunwoody, from the 6th, and picks up Forsyth County, which gave McCain 79% of the vote.
District 8 - Hank Johnson (Periwinkle) - The only thing that really changes about this district, aside from the number,(it used to be the 4th), is that it no longer includes Rockdale County. Hank Johnson will be in congress for as long as he likes, assuming he learned a lesson from his predecessor and gives the Capitol Police their space.
District 9 - Phil Gingrey (Bright Blue) - This district contains a little bit more of Cobb County than it used to, and a little bit less rural territory along the Alabama border, but it is still a Republican stronghold. However, it is renumbered. (It used to be the 11th).
District 10 - OPEN (Hot Pink) - This district's main population center is Warner Robins, a conservative city with a strong military presence. However, this district is mostly rural and is composed of Republican areas taken from the districts of Jack Kingston, Sanford Bishop, and Jim Marshall. Marshall might run here, but historically he hasn't performed too well in the turf here that was formerly in his district. This is probably a likely pickup for the Republicans.
District 11 - John Lewis (Radioactive Green)- John Lewis's district is still a majority-black Democratic stronghold, but it gets a new number, and some territory in Cobb County that was previously represented by David Scott.
District 12 - Paul Broun (Indigo) - Despite containing Athens, the 12th (formerly the 10th) is heavily Republican, thanks to its territory in North Georgia. Broun is safe here.
District 13 - David Scott (Salmon) - This district stays very similar in shape, but is now majority black as opposed to majority minority.
District 14 - OPEN (Greenish Brown) - This is the new district. Although it includes Rockdale County, which Obama won, and Henry County, which has been trending our way, as well as part of Gwinnett County, it also includes Walton and Barrow Counties, which are exurban and heavily Republican, as well as some heavily Republican rural areas. This district might be competitive someday, but for now it should go Republican. It wouldn't surprise me to see former Rep. Mac Collins try and make a comeback here. Marshall could also conceivably run here, but he hasn't done well in the section of his current district that is in this new district, and would be an underdog.
P.S. I don't know as much about the Voting Rights Act as I should, so if you know how it might affect this map, be sure to let me know.
1.) To make sure the new district elects a Democrat. 2.) To shore up the three Central/Southern Georgia Democrats (especially Marshall and Barrow), not only for the incumbents but also Democrats in general if and when those seats come open. 3.) To create or expand our bench in our districts. 4.) To fuck with Phil Gingrey and John Linder to the best of my ability. 5.) To try my best not create an ode to the Flying Spaghetti Monster.
To that end, I think I accomplished these goals. My maps:
Having mapped most of the country in my absurdly low-tech fashion, the release of Dave's redistricting application (and bandwagon appeal) compels me to revisit some of these states with better data. I'll start with Florida and Georgia, two states covered by recent diaries but for which my approach is decidedly different.
These maps resemble what I drew on Paint, but not exactly.
The following is a bit of a thought experiment. Imagine a Democratic Gerrymander of Georgia that could more or less ignore the VRA, or at least go with the standard of "majority minority" rather than striving for 50%+ Black. I used Dave's Redistricting App, with the new population estimates, creating 14 districts. I was not as aggressive as fitchfan28 and focused my efforts on the Atlanta area leaving South Georgia largely unchanged.
Episode 4 in my series of diaries mapping out possible redistricting scenarios in the states is here! I was inspired to finally put it together after BigTentProgressive's excellent Texas redistricting diary. On the agenda today: some peaches for the First Lady's new garden. (Which is my not-so-clever way of saying that I'm covering Georgia and New Jersey in today's diary.)
Unfortunately, my districts are based on county estimates from 2007, and just this week the Census released 2008 numbers. Since my maps were drawn before the 2008 release, they are worth taking with a grain of salt. Also, I am using projected seat totals for post-2010 redistricting that are equally subject to change.
