Lately there has been a lot of Debate over the number of Democratic Congressional Districts that Democrats could gerrymander out of the state of Michigan if they had complete control (right now they hold the Governorship and State House. They stand a good chance at taking control of the State Senate while the Governor's race is a tossup). A few people, namely IHateBush, have said that it is possible to succesfully draw a map that would yield 12 Democratic seats and only 2 Republican seats. I've been trying for several weeks to draw a 12-2 map, meanwhile protecting endangered incumbents (specifically Schauer) and I've determined that a 12-2 map would be far overeaching and in a neutral or Republican leaning year might end up 9-5 or worse. I think the best Michigan Democrats could do is create 11 safe or Democrat leaning districts and 3 strongly Republican districts. I've drawn a map that I think does just that, although I still am not entirely confident that we could hold both of my "Thumb" districts in a Republican year. But without further ado, here's my map.
• NY-20 (pdf): The morning update on the NY-20 absentee count finds Scott Murphy padding his skimpy lead a bit, up to 168. There was a partial report of absentees from Warren County (one of the strongholds of the Murphy clan), and the expected report from Saratoga County (Tedisco country) didn't materialize, so this may be only a temporary surge. Democratic number crunchers, starting with Nate Silver, are sounding increasingly sanguine about the direction the absentee ballots are taking, though. Nate projects about a 500-vote margin for Murphy when all is said and done.
The Albany Project has been all over the sudden increase in ballot challenges by the Tedisco camp (who've moved to challenge second-home voters and student voters in the last few days). In the battle of perceptions, however, the GOP may have gone a fridge too far with their latest step, challenging the absentee ballot of NY-20's favorite resident, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand visited the Great Orange Satan and HuffPo to blog about her experience.
• MO-Sen: Polls have given SoS Robin Carnahan a commanding position in the open Missouri senate race, and now she has fundraising numbers to match, posting $1,048,000 in the first quarter.
• OH-Sen: There's one other SoS running for an open senate seat who didn't fare so well, though. Jennifer Brunner pulled in a surprisingly low $200,000. That may pick up once she gets the expected EMILY's List endorsement, but it leaves her lagging behind Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, who raised more than $1 million and is already wearing the mantle of 'establishment' Dem candidate.
• PA-Sen: Joe Torsella, who's never held elective office before but is well-connected in Philadelphia's corridors of power, reported a solid $584,000 in an abbreviated Q1 (only since mid-February).
• OK-Sen: Are you there, God? It's me, Tom Coburn. I can't decide whether or not to run for re-election. (He says he's not playing games; it's a "spiritual thing.") The Club for Growth, in their first act since Chris "Count" Chocola took over, endorsed Coburn today, though.
• TX-Gov: Kinky Friedman, who got 12% of the vote as an independent in the chaotic 2006 Texas governor's race, is doing it again, and this time he's running in the Democratic primary. It's unclear whether this will work to Friedman's advantage, since a lot of his support comes from Paulists, Naderites, and other assorted weirdos who may not be registered Democrats, and Tom Schieffer gives Dem voters a 'normal' option.
• FL-10: Bill Young is always on 'most likely' to retire lists, but the 78-year-old is giving a little more fodder for that mill with today's fundraising report. He raised only $7,100 in the first quarter, sitting on $412K CoH. (He only raised $15K in Q1 of 2007, though, and won easily in 2008.)
• MI-09: Joe Knollenberg won't be back for a rematch against Gary Peters, who unseated him in 2008, but his former chief of staff will. Paul Welday, who's also a former Oakland County GOP chair, will challenge him in 2010. Welday lost a race for the state house in 2008.
I know redistricting diaries are a dime a dozen these days, but I'm going to do one that has never been done before: Michigan (assuming full Democratic control of the process). Nathaniel90 already drew a split control compromise map found here: http://www.swingstateproject.c...
Michigan will be losing a seat in 2012, going from 15 to 14. I think the chances of full Democratic control is about 50-50 or maybe slightly better. It looks like we have a very good shot at taking back control of the State Senate, while the Governors race is still pretty much up in the air, with presumptive nominee John Cherry lagging in the most recent poll. But this far out, no one can predict this one yet.
By this map Democrats would presumably hold a 9-5 advantage in Representation. They currently hold a 8-7 Advantage. In 2002, when Republicans drew the map, they (Rs) held a 9-6 advantage. My map protects freshmen Gary Peters and Mark Schauer, while throwing Dave Camp and Mike Rogers into a district together. It also draws a much more Democratic district for Thaddeus McCotter (or his Democratic successor), presumably eliminating him if he isn't already gone by 2012.
My map was drawn on microsoft paint, and some of the more detailed borders aren't exact. Also my computer has some kind of problem with pixelation or something, so it may appear a little blurry. Without further ado, here's my map with district profiles down below the flip.
The 2008 Election in Michigan was by far the best that we've had in years, maybe decades. We picked up two congressional seats, both of which were gerrymandered to favor Republicans. Better yet, we won one of them by nearly 10 points. Barack Obama won by a landslide here (16%) Compared to John Kerry, who only won by three points. On the Statewide level, we passed two progressive ballot initiatives, threw out the conservative Chief Justice of the State Supreme Court, and made huge gains in the State House of Representatives.
Grove Insight for DCCC (10/21, likely voters, 10/4-5):
Gary Peters (D): 46 (46)
Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 36 (37)
Jack Kevorkian (I): 2 (n/a)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for DCCC (10/19-20, likely voters, 9/30-10/1):
Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 44 (44)
Steve Stivers (R): 36 (36)
Don Eckhart (I): 11 (7)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Two new polls from the DCCC show Democratic candidates in midwestern swing district races maintaining their sizable leads from last time. In the open seat in the Columbus-based 15th, the head-to-head numbers stay exactly the same; the only movement, unfortunately for Stivers, seems to be to pro-life independent Don Eckhart. (At the presidential level, Obama leads McCain 51-39 in OH-15.)
MI-09 continues to be a big surprise, as Gary Peters puts up a bigger margin against incumbent Joe Knollenberg than in the open seat in OH-15. This one just seems like a perfect storm: the Detroit area was already suffering economically more than any other part of the country, it's suffering even more with the financial crisis and subsequent free fall in the auto industry, and we have an old incumbent who hasn't faced a top-tier challenge before.
Last week, we finished surveying the lay of the land out West. This week, we begin to turn our attention to the Midwest. Yes, that's right. The Midwest looks to be once again a crucial battleground to win both the White House and Congress. And with just six weeks left until election day, we'd like to talk about the state of the races in America's Heartland.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
First, I’d like to begin by thanking all of you for your support. Because of contributions from people like you, our campaign has just been ranked in CQ’s list of the top ten best funded challengers in the country. The voters in Michigan’s 9th Congressional district are tired of the failed leadership they’ve gotten from my opponent, Congressman Joe Knollenberg, for the past sixteen years, and they’re eager for a real change in Washington.
As a former Lt. Commander in the Navy, I wanted to take a moment to write to you this week as we pass the fifth anniversary of one of the most shameful moments in recent American history. On May 1st, 2003, President George W. Bush landed on the USS Abraham Lincoln, in front of the now-infamous “Mission Accomplished” banner and said these words: “My fellow Americans, major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed.”
The end of the first quarter brings news that bodes well for Democrats in Michigan. Congressional challengers Mark Schauer (MI-07) and Gary Peters (MI-09), both considered top contenders on the Red-To-Blue list, have ended the quarter with impressive fundraising totals.
Peters' campaign reports that it raised over $346,000 for the first quarter, reaching roughly $748,000 total for the cycle. Furthermore, in sharp contrast to the GOP's reliance on large-scale wealthy donors and multinational corporations, 90% of Peters' donations came from within the Wolverine State, and 94% came from individuals. Nearly 2,000 individual contributors signed on by the end of the quarter, reinforcing the growing power of small donations from individuals via the Internet, a trend that will undoubtedly shape elections going forward.
Schauer's numbers reflect a similar trend, as his campaign announced that it has raised more than $326,000 in the quarter, and more than $900,000 total to date. 86% of that total came from in-state donors, and, during this quarter, the campaign saw 1,000 new individuals contribute.
Always encouraging to hear news like this, especially from districts in a crucial swing state!
In a shocking development, Nancy Skinner, the 2006 candidate who ran against Republican Rep. Joe Knollenberg, has withdrawn her candidacy for that seat. She would have faced state lottery commissioner Gary Peters in the Democratic primary before moving on to face Knollenberg in the fall.
I'm not quite sure which way this news cuts. On the one hand, Skinner ran a strong race against Knollenberg the last time around, and has been championed by the netroots, especially Democracy For America. On the flip side, I remain wary of "grudge match" candidates who were unable to beat the Republicans in 2006. That was a Democratic year, without any GOP pull at the top of the ticket. If a candidate couldn't make it over the finish line then, how would he or she do so this year?
I also don't know much about Gary Peters. How strong a candidate is he? Any Michiganders with insights, I encourage you to chime in!
The 2008 Federal Election may be 280 days away, but life on the trail in a targeted congressional district has already heated up. We in the blogosphere do so much to impact the process, from contributions to candidates and volunteering our time (sometimes across the nation thanks to technology such as virtual phone banks) to simply giving attention to well deserving candidates who aren't receiving any from the mainstream media. But what is it like inside of these campaigns that we track, influence, and cheer for?
I work for Gary Peters for Congress in Michigan's 9th Congressional district. I'm focused on the campaign. I could tell you in my sleep that the district is currently represented by Republican Joe Knollenberg, however it has a Partisan Voter Index of R+0, making it one of our best pickup opportunities. I can rattle off the cities equally as effortlessly, and even give you a tour to some of the districts many landmarks including The Palace in Auburn Hills (home of the NBA's Pistons and WNBA's Shock), the Somerset Mall in Troy, the Detroit Zoo in Royal Oak, or the Fallen Heroes Memorial in Pontiac.
Today the SEIU Michigan Council has endorsed Gary Peters, in his congressional campaign for Michigan's 9th district.
"Our members firmly believe that Gary Peters is the best candidate to represent the citizens of Michigan's 9th District," said Phil Thompson, SEIU Michigan State Council president and executive vice president of SEIU Local 517M. "He has a proven record of standing by working families, particularly when it comes to providing access to quality and affordable health care."
Gary has also received the earliest Congressional endorsement from the AFL-CIO, been endorsed by the Michigan Building Trades, American Federation of Teachers, and the local Operating Engineers, Communication Workers, and Pipefitters.
Peters was proud to accept the endorsement, saying "I'm extremely pleased and honored to get the support of the SEIU Michigan State Council. The SEIU believes, as I believe, that working families deserve a voice in Washington and that it is time for a change."
Michigan's 9th District is currently represented by Joe Knollenberg. Last year Knollenberg received a dismal 0% rating on labor issues in the AFSCME House Scorecard.
Peters for Congress is proud to announce that the entire Michigan Democratic delegation will be supporting a December fundraiser for Gary Peters and Mark Schauer. The event comes weeks before the next crucial campaign finance reporting deadline.
In a recent Roll Call article on the DCCC's strategy to turn the GOP's black-hearted support of President Bush's S-CHIP veto into some serious November Pain for rank-and-file House Republicans, DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen let slip some rough polling numbers for S-CHIP hater Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R-MI). Knollenberg has an A-list challenger in former state Sen. Gary Peters.
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for the DCCC (likely voters, 10/31-11/02):
Gary Peters (D): 35 Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 42
(MoE: ±4.8%)
While the exact trendlines are not available, Knollenberg's 7-point lead is down from a 12-point lead in April. He's also well under the magic 50%
mark, well before the campaign has even been engaged. Not good news for Team Red.
And in a sign of S-CHIP's salience, Knollenberg is very vulnerable on the issue:
Knollenberg's 7-point lead turned into a 7-point deficit after respondents were read both a push question characterizing his position on SCHIP, and the Democratic and Republican arguments for and against the program.
You may have seen some of the YouTube drama surrounding MI-09 and candidate Gary Peters. Peters is currently serving as the Griffin Endowed Chair of American Government at Central Michigan University. As a former State Senator, State Lottery Commissioner, and Lt. Commander in the Navy Reserve he brings a unique perspective to the university.
Another unique perspective found at CMU belongs to young conservative Dennis Lennox. Lennox has been complaining that Peters should not be able to run for Congress at teach at CMU at the same time.
The root of his complaint poses a very significant question: should you be able to hold a job and run for office? We don't mind that incumbents, who earn a salary from the taxpayers, campaign for their re-election. Should a candidate have to be independently wealthy to run for office?
On Tuesday, the League of Conservation Voters named the first two members of the "Dirty Dozen" list of the 12 worst members of Congress on environmental issues.
The first additions to the 2008 Dirty Dozen are Senator James Inhofe (R-OK) and Congressman Joe Knollenberg (R-MI09).
We all know where Inhofe stands on the environment. If you can justify ignoring the threat of global warming by claiming it is a scam to raise the Weather Channel's ratings, then you can justify voting against any environmental protections. However, I was very glad to see the LCV recognize that Joe Knollenberg is in the same class as Inhofe.
You may not have heard of Joe Knollenberg. He is the Republican Ranking Member of an Appropriations Sub Committee, and brags about all the money he has "secured" for local interests, taking advantage of earmarks, on his website. But his record on issues important to 9th district voters is atrocious. The LCV gives him a lifetime score of just 7%.
In fact, an amendment that bans the EPA from hosting educational seminars about global warming is known as the "Knollenberg Amendment".
2 terms of George Bush is too long. 15 terms of Joe Knollenberg is WAY too long. I'm excited to share with you the story of my congressional district, and tell you about the most exciting candidate to run in the past few cycles!
Last November voters across the country told the Republican party that we are sick of their war, we are sick of their endless spending, and we want change. Joe Knollenberg faced his toughest challenge yet.
Now is the time to bring about change in MI-09.
Gary Peters is the kind of leader we need to send to Congress. He's stood up to special interest money before, fighting the oil lobby to ban drilling in the Great Lakes as a State Senator. He's ready to go to work for us again, to get us on a new direction in Iraq, fight for pay-as-you-go budgeting, and making health care affordable for all Americans.
There are still 5 days left to contribute to Peters for Congress, so we can work together to bring about change. Early donations (before the September 30th FEC deadline) help get essential campaign operations off the ground and attracts attention.
Today Peters For Congress is proud to announce the endorsement of the AFL-CIO!
The AFL-CIO represents over 1 million members in Michigan. This endorsement is unique because it is the earliest they have EVER endorsed a congressional candidate. It is hard to believe, but the election is still over a year away.
For a Michigan candidate, the support of unions, especially the AFL-CIO, dictates success in a primary and ultimately the general election. Working families in Michigan's 9th are one step closer to having a Representative who will fight for their jobs and their rights.
Gary Peters has a strong record of supporting working families and core Democratic values. As a State Senator he helped write the bill that banned drilling in the Great Lakes, fighting the oil lobby every step of the way.
In an email to supporters, Peters says that since he has entered the race MI-09 has become one of the nation's top targeted races. Polling data confirms that he is one of the strongest Democratic challengers in the country.
