FL-Sen, FL-21, FL-25: Crist Cooking Up a Three-Way?

by: James L.

Mon Aug 17, 2009 at 2:59 PM EDT

Supporters of U.S. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart of Miami say he's seriously considering giving up his House seat to serve the rest of Mel Martinez's Senate term. Gov. Charlie Crist said Friday that he's on the shortlist.

"To my surprise, Lincoln is seriously considering filling out the questionnaire and putting his name in the hat,'' said lobbyist/fundraiser Ana Navarro. "It's a historical opportunity where he feels he can make a difference. He is willing to lose his House seat in order to serve the state of Florida in the Senate."

But wait, there's more! Much more, in fact. The new rumor on the blocks is that by moving up, Lincoln Diaz-Balart would leave his seat open not for Rubio, but for his younger brother, 25th District Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart. The idea is that Mario is not enjoying the Dem-trending nature of his own district (it voted for McCain by 1% last year, and MDB himself only won re-election by 6%), and thinks that the 21st is more hospitable territory for the Diaz-Balart brand. I'm not so sure how wise of a move that would be -- the 21st isn't all that more GOP-friendly than the 25th; LDB's district went for McCain by 2%, but he crushed highly-touted but highly flawed Dem nominee Raul Martinez by 16 points during the same election. The theory, then, is that Marco Rubio would be free to run in the adjacent 25th District once MDB successfully swaps seats. More from the Miami Herald:

Because Diaz-Balart's name did not surface immediately when Martinez announced he would quit, the prospect of him seeking the appointment -- and that his brother, Mario Diaz-Balart would run for his more Republican-friendly seat -- is creating political upheaval in an already topsy-turvy election cycle. That would leave Mario's seat open, possibly for former House Speaker Marco Rubio, who is considered a longshot against Crist for Senate. (Both Mario and Marco would have to move.)

"I would urge Mario to run for the seat because of the changing demographics in his district,'' Navarro said. "It's adjacent to his district and has the same issues but has a much stronger Republican base."

This is a pretty crazy game of pinball that Crist and the Diaz-Balarts may or may not be attempting to rig. I would have to grudgingly tip my hat to the Governor if it all fell perfectly into place, but of course, there's also the risk that something this complicated could blow up in everyone's face.

As Samuel L. Jackson once said, hang on to yer butts.

UPDATE: Straight from the horse's mouth:

U.S. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart said today he is "seriously considering" seeking the vacant U.S. Senate seat.

RaceTracker Wiki: FL-Sen | FL-21 | FL-25

SSP Daily Digest: 6/3

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 2:23 PM EDT

• NC-Sen: It never quite seemed likely, but Elizabeth Edwards silenced any speculation that she might run for Senate against Richard Burr next year.

• KY-Sen: Here's a new name sniffing out the Kentucky Senate primary. A staffer for Rep. Ed Whitfield from KY-01 just bought both domain names for "whitfieldforsenate.com" and "whitfieldforgovernor.com" (and inexplicably paid $800 for the two names). Maybe SoS Trey Grayson may have some company in the primary if Jim Bunning truly does bail out?

• VA-Gov: Ex-Del. Brian Moran leaked an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner to Political Wire. Lo and behold, it shows Moran in the lead, with 29% to 27% for Creigh Deeds and 26% for Terry McAuliffe. (Meaning that in the last week, each of the three primary candidates have led a poll.) (UPDATE: PPP points out a flaw here: this isn't a topline, but the result from a subsample that's disposed to do well for Moran: people who've participated in Democratic primaries prior to last year's presidential race.)

Fundraising numbers for the three candidates also just came out: McAuliffe is way ahead on the money front, with $1.8 mil raised last quarter and $1.3 mil CoH ($7 mil total). Deeds raised $676K with $521K CoH ($3.8 mil total), and Moran raised $844K with $700 CoH ($4.8 mil total).

• MN-Gov: With T-Paw getting out, a flood of second-tier Republicans has spilled out in search of the nomination. State Sen. David Hann, state Sen. Geoff Michel, state Rep. Marty Seifert, state Rep. Paul Kohls, and former legislator Charlie Weaver are "interested." Former Auditor Pat Anderson is going so far as to say she'll announce in a month or two. Others mentioned include state Rep. Laura Brod, national committee member Brian Sullivan, and former state House speaker and current Labor and Industry Commissioner Steve Sviggum. The Star-Tribune also mentioned former Rep. Jim Ramstad (who'd do well in the general but may be too moderate to survive the nominating convention), state Sen. minority leader David Senjem, and one very big wild card... Norm Coleman, although his dragging-out of the Senate race can't have helped his favorables. One prominent name who apparently isn't interested: Rep. Michele Bachmann.

• MI-Gov: The Republican field in the Michigan governor's race got even more crowded, as Oakland Co. Sheriff Rick Bouchard got in. (Bouchard lost the 2006 Senate race to Debbie Stabenow.) Bouchard's entry was faciliated when his boss, Oakland Co. Exec L. Brooks Patterson, declined to run -- but Bouchard may do exactly what Patterson would have done, which is split the Detroit suburban vote with AG Mike Cox, making it easier for Rep. Pete Hoekstra from the state's west to sneak through.

• CO-04: Ex-Rep. Marilyn Musgrave fired off a rather unhinged-sounding fundraising letter on behalf of her new employers in the culture war, the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List. This may actually work to Rep. Betsy Markey's advantage; she made reference to Musgrave's letter in her own appeal for contributions.

• FL-17: Politics1 has an interesting, if a bit unsavory, rumor coming out of south Florida: 83-year-old former Rep. Carrie Meek may get on the ballot in FL-17, essentially to act as a one-term placeholder for her son, Rep. Kendrick Meek. (If he lost the Senate race, she would re-retire in 2012 and thus let him get his old job back. Or, if Meek won the Senate race, she'd still retire and let someone new take over FL-17.) Meek denied the rumor, though, to National Journal.

• FL-25: Here's a potentially big name to take on Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, who beat Joe Garcia by a small margin in 2008. Miami Mayor Manny Diaz is reportedly taking a look at the race; his name has also been mentioned in connection with the open Lt. Gov. slot.

• NC-11: PPP's Tom Jensen looks at possible Democratic successors in this R+6 district if Rep. Heath Shuler gives up the seat to run for Senate. He cites state Sens. John Snow and Joe Sam Queen as likeliest. (He also links to a great map from Civitas that calculates the PVI for all of North Carolina's state Senate districts.)

• SC-01: Rep. Henry Brown threw a "thank you" party in Myrtle Beach for his supporters, and at least 11 people walked away with the best possible tokens of his gratitude: diarrhea and nausea. State health officials are investigating to see if it was the result of food poisoning or just of the Republican rhetoric. Also, 2008 challenger Linda Ketner, who came close to knocking off Brown as an openly lesbian candidate in a dark-red district, may not be looking to run again. She did a refreshingly honest interview with FireDogLake, maybe a little too refreshing vis-a-vis her future viability, in terms of referring to "the conservative, religious crazy vote" and outing several prominent South Carolina politicians.

• UT-LG: A third generation of Romneys is getting warmed up (in a third state). Mitt Romney's 33-year-old son Josh has been in talks with soon-to-be-Gov. Gary Herbert about the open Lieutenant Governor's position.

• AL-St. Senate: Democrats can still be a downballot force in Alabama, managing to hold a state Senate seat in a deep-red part of rural Alabama north of Mobile. State Rep. Mark Keahey (who's only 28) narrowly defeated Republican former state Rep. Greg Albritton, in a special election triggered by the January death of Democratic Sen. Pat Lindsey. (UPDATE: Actually, it turns out that the margin wasn't so tight. Keahey crushed Albritton by a devastating 58-42 margin.)

• NH-St. House: In another special election, Democrats held a state House seat based in Lebanon, New Hampshire, as fire captain Andy White beat Republican Randy Wagoner. It's Democratic-leaning turf, but the GOP turned this into a proxy battle over gay marriage (White is a vote in favor of it), and out-of-district money enabled Wagoner to outspend White at least 4-to-1.

FL-21, FL-25: On Fire In Florida

by: Crisitunity

Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 7:09 PM EDT

Raul Martinez (D): 44
Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±5%)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters, 9/23-25 in parentheses):

Joe Garcia (D): 43 (41)
Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 46 (45)
(MoE: ±5%)

Two last stragglers from this weekend's poll blitz to discuss: both the South Florida races involving the Diaz-Balart brothers are almost neck-and-neck as we near the finish line. They're similar districts (the 21st is R+6, the 25th is R+4, both are more than 60% Hispanic, most of which is Cuban-American), obviously similar incumbents (Mario is the slightly more conservative one), and the challengers are similarly close.

Raul Martinez, the former mayor of Hialeah (the population center of the 21st), is trailing Lincoln Diaz-Balart by one point. Among the 17% who've voted already, Martinez leads 55-42. While it's not surprising that the locally well-known Martinez is performing well in this one-time reliable GOP stronghold, it is very surprising that Obama is leading in this district 50-45 (and 55-42 among early voters). (Although given dramatic changes in registration numbers, maybe not that surprising.)

In the 25th, a district which is further out in the suburbs (and includes a whole lot of empty territory in the Everglades), Joe Garcia is back by 3, a slightly closer race than one month ago, and is leading among independents 42-41 (much better than the 4-point deficit among indies last month). Of the 12% who've voted already, Garcia leads 52-46.

SSP House Race Ratings Changes: 10/27

by: James L.

Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 12:46 AM EDT

We made these changes on Friday night, but haven't had the opportunity to post our full write-ups until now. Here goes:

Essentially, Republicans ceded this race the moment that former Arizona state Senate President Ken Bennett declined to run for the open seat of "retiring" GOP Rep. Rick Renzi. In his place, Republicans are running Arizona Mining Association President Sydney Hay, a truly D-grade candidate whose sharply right-wing views would make Randy Graf smile with pride. Most starkly, Hay has only raised $363,000 compared to Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick's $1.68 million. With the DCCC spending liberally against Hay, the end result is poised to look ugly for the GOP here. (James L.)

This is a case of good candidate, wrong year for the Republicans: they convinced state senate president Tim Bee to run against freshman Democrat Gabrielle Giffords in this R+1 district. Bee came in with something of a moderate image, but that was frittered away through a public tussle with Jim Kolbe, the Republican occupant of this seat prior to Giffords (probably over Bee's support for a gay marriage amendment to the Arizona constitution) and having to have a Bush visit to help with fundraising.

In a normal year, the GOP could have made a strong race of it, even with these few unforced errors. Given the broader trends this year, though, and the GOP's more pressing problems on defense, Bee simply got washed away... and acknowledging their chances, the NRCC just pulled out of this race. (Crisitunity)

Hopes have been high for Charlie Brown's second run at this seat in the Sacramento suburbs, after he narrowly lost to corrupt John Doolittle in 2006. Unfortunately (for Brown's chances), Doolittle subsequently retired, meaning that Brown would instead be running in 2008 against 'generic R' in a dark-red R+11 district.

Fortunately for Brown, though, 'generic R' didn't show up, and instead he found himself running against 'conservative icon' Tom McClintock, who between his name-recognition and access to money was supposed to have been a formidable opponent may just be too laughable and over-the-top even for this district. First off, McClintock is from southern California and hasn't bothered moving to the district yet. He seems to have little intention of unpacking his bags even if he wins, as he's keeping various accounts for 2010 statewide offices open.

Things just haven't gelled for McClintock; not only has he trailed Brown in all polls except his own internals, but he's almost out of money, as he finished the third quarter with only $94,000 cash on hand. The district lean here should disqualify a Democrat from picking up this seat, but by any objective measure, Brown is poised to be able to do it. (C)

This is an ugly, awful race with an ugly, awful candidate on the Dem line who really ought to spare himself, his family, his constituents, and his nominal party a whole lot of embarrassment by resigning. We'll have a shot here again in the future.

One point I'd like to make in passing, though, is that if Dave Lutrin, who was a short-lived primary opponent of Mahoney's back in 2006, thought his cause was just, he should never have dropped out. I'm really tired of claims that Rahm Emanuel somehow "pushed" Lutrin out of the race.

This isn't a third-world country. His family wasn't threatened. In America, if you want to run for office, you run. Some people might make things difficult for you, but that's called politics. And we also have excellent proof that such a course of action by no means has to be quixotic - just look at Reps. Jerry McNerney and Carol Shea-Porter. In other words, there's no excuse for giving up just because Rahm allegedly likes someone else better than you. (David)

Who would have ever thought that the first Republican incumbent to fall off the cliff and into the no-man's land of "Lean Dem" would be someone other than Don Young? Tom Feeney was one of the few representatives tarred with the brush of Abramoff to survive 2006 and then decide to try again in 2008. Until recently, however, with Jack Abramoff disappearing in the rear-view mirror and Feeney safely ensconced in an R+3 district that he designed for himself while in the state legislature, it looked like he was going to skate through.

As Republican fortunes in general started to dwindle this summer, though, Feeney found former state representative Suzanne Kosmas gaining on him. So, he did exactly what any rational politican would do... he issued an ad reminding everyone of his involvement in the Abramoff affair and begging forgiveness for it. Wait... what? That's not what a rational politician would do? Hmmm.

From that point on, everything seemed to go haywire for Feeney, and another Kosmas internal from last week gave her a head-spinning 58-35 lead over Feeney. This week would have been the time for Feeney to issue his own internal as a rebuttal... and his silence on the matter is extremely telling. Even in a good year for Republicans, this would be a difficult hole for Feeney to climb out of, but this year, it'd be nearly impossible. (C)

This one is all about demographics. What was once a Cuban-American GOP stronghold has turned into a pure tossup district, at least according to the latest voter registration numbers. Recent polling shows Diaz-Balart up by only three points and well below 50%, and the DCCC is spending heavily against both Diaz-Balart brothers (while the NRCC has been focusing solely on protecting Lincoln with massive independent expenditures). This one feels hard to predict, making it a perfect tossup. (J)

Well, here we are - a place I distantly imagined we might possibly reach but am nonetheless quite surprised (and delighted) to be. The race for Idaho's first Congressional District is a tossup, my friends, and this is a race rating change you can believe in.

Bill Sali has done for Democrats what even the lovechild of FDR and Howard Dean never could have: He's made a seat that's supremely conservative extremely competitive. As we've explained at great length, Sali is the perfect fuckup, capable of doing no right.

Meanwhile, Dem Walt Minnick has been an ideal candidate running a nearly flawless campaign. He's scored support from a broad range of conservatives furious with Sali's antics and ineffectiveness, and he's picked up endorsements from the region's most important papers (see here and here). What's more, the polling (particularly a recent SUSA survey) has shown a tight race. We think Minnick has put himself in an excellent position to win this race and are eager to follow the returns on election night. (D)

In any other cycle, this race would have been a barnburner: A popular, longtime incumbent narrowly upset in a wave election by a first-time candidate wages a serious comeback in a swing district. The problem is that this isn't just any ordinary cycle. Indeed, it's looking like a vale of tears for all of the Republican retreads who are seeking rematches this year.

But Northup is a special case - she was actually a replacement candidate against John Yarmuth, after her bitterly humiliating primary loss to corrupt Gov. Ernie Fletcher in 2007. Northup's fundraising network may still be intact, but her political appeal isn't. Yarmuth, who is proving to be a great fit for this district, has led comfortably in five straight SUSA polls.

Once you factor in top-of-the-ticket excitement in Louisville, the chances of Northup pulling this one off seem remote indeed. Hopefully, with three shattering losses in just twenty-four months, we won't be seeing much more of Anne any time soon. (D)

We've heard very little all cycle long in this sleepy race. When last we checked in half a year ago, malfunctioning NRCC robot Ken Spain was busy telling the world that Mike Arcuri would be vulnerable unless the DCCC spent its entire $44 million warchest to defend him.

Actual DCCC expenditures on this race? $00,000,000.00. That sort of tells you all you need to know. Rep. Mike Arcuri has raised solidly if not spectacularly ($1.5m), but that's been more than enough to keep his Republican opponent Richard Hanna at bay. Arcuri is likely to hold this seat for a long time to come. (D)

After a paper-thin margin in 2006, this R+1 district in Democratic-trending Columbus was considered a prime pickup opportunity. Once incumbent Deborah Pryce decided to flee for the hills (actually, K Street is pretty flat, come to think of it) and county commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy came back for another try, many prognosticators thought this was the Dems' single-best pickup chance. Subsequent retirements (NY-25) and retirements/sex scandals/untimely deaths/party meltdowns (NY-13) moved it down the list a bit, but it always looked good for the Dems.

The GOP scored big, though, by nailing their desired candidate, moderate state senator Steve Stivers. Polls never showed a big edge for Kilroy, and Kilroy got pinned down with various weird minutiae (like controversies over bids to build a baseball stadium and the radical leftist pamphlet alternative weekly she used to edit) that kept her from building much momentum.

However, the general trend toward the Dems seems to have pushed this race into the Lean Dem column in the last month, with polls moving in Kilroy's direction and the NRCC, in triage mode, more focused on saving incumbents than open seats. Throw in pro-life independent Don Eckhart making Stivers' task even more difficult, and this becomes a race where a GOP victory would, at this point, be quite surprising. (C)

Republicans thumped their chest pretty loudly after 2006 that Democrat Zack Space had a fluke victory and would be quickly dispatched with by a top-tier challenger in 2008. Well, it's 2008, and we see no top-tier challenger here. We do see a sadsack nobody who has raised a whopping $332,000 in a year and a half since kicking off his campaign. That's simply not enough to topple a Representative who, by most reviews, has been a good fit for his district and has provided superior constituent services.

Memo to Republicans: Better luck next year. (J)

Dem Voter Registration Surge Continues in Key Florida Battlegrounds

by: James L.

Sun Oct 19, 2008 at 7:28 PM EDT

The Florida Division of Elections has just posted new numbers for each congressional district, and a quick glance confirms that the trend is continuing big time. Statewide, Democrats have added an additional 200,000 registered voters to their advantage over the GOP since July. But let's take a look at the same nine districts that we looked at in August.

In the 2006 column, we have the GOP's voter registration advantage in each district as of October 10th, 2006. In the next column, we have the numbers as of July 28 of this year, followed by the most recent numbers (October 8).  Take a peek:

Wow -- for the first time, Democrats now have a partisan advantage in the 8th District, where Democrat Alan Grayson is taking on GOP crumb-bum Ric Keller. Keller is locked in the fight of his political life, and these numbers prove it.

While two of these districts are pretty much off the map in terms of realistic Democratic pick-up opportunities (the 9th CD and the open seat dud in the 15th), the other huge shift can be seen in South Florida, where Democrats are waging tough fights against the Diaz-Balart brothers (the 21st and 25th CDs) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in the 18th District. For years, these districts were seen as Republican strongholds, but now, Democrats have chipped away significantly at the GOP's edge.

Democrats have even made up a lot of ground in the 16th District; it's just too bad that disgraced Rep. Tim Mahoney has squandered it all.

Full raw numbers for all of these districts are available below the fold.

FL-25: Garcia Surging in New Internal Poll

by: James L.

Mon Oct 13, 2008 at 12:33 PM EDT

Joe Garcia (D): 42 (33)
Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 45 (55)
Undecided: 13 (13)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

That's some big movement for Joe Garcia, and right in line with two other recent polls of this race. Carlos McDonald had Diaz-Balart up by 43-41, while Research 2000 pegged the race at 45-41 for Diaz-Balart. There's one big difference between this poll and R2K's poll -- and that's the Presidential preference of the district.

Research 2000 gave McCain a 53-38 margin here, indicating no coattails whatsoever to help Garcia. This internal poll, however, finds Obama with a 47-43 lead in the district -- up considerably from a 40-49 deficit in July. Bear in mind that this is an R+4.4 district, albeit one that has seen a dramatic Democratic voter registration surge.

In any case, we now have three recent polls showing Diaz-Balart lingering in the mid-40s, which is not a comfortable place for any incumbent to be.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

FL-18, FL-25: Garcia Close, Ileana Under 50

by: James L.

Mon Oct 06, 2008 at 7:48 PM EDT

Joe Garcia (D): 41
Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 43
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±5.7%)

Both Garcia and Diaz-Balart are scoring roughly an equal amount of support from their own parties (81% of Dems are for Garcia, and 82% of Republicans side with Diaz-Balart), but Independents are breaking for the Democrat by a 44-38 margin. While the margin of error for this one is a bit portly, it's very close to the results we've seen from other pollsters. Research 2000 gave Diaz-Balart a 45-41 edge here a few days before this poll was conducted, and an earlier Bendixen poll from June showed a 44-39 race.

And here's the scene in the 18th District, the toughest nut of the South Florida trio:

Annette Taddeo (D): 35
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±5.7%)

Taddeo has a slight edge (39-36) among Independent voters, and this is the first time that Ros-Lehtinen has been under 50 in a poll this year. Bendixen had Taddeo trailing by 27 points in June, and Research 2000 showed a 17-point Ros-Lehtinen lead last week. It's still a tough race for Taddeo, but these numbers offer some hope. After all, some incumbents who posted bigger leads than this in late September polls ended up feeling some November Pain in 2006.

UPDATE (David): Telemundo also polled FL-21 (Raul Martinez vs. Lincoln Diaz-Balart) but hasn't released those numbers yet. However, they have offered the traditional bonus finding: Across all three S. Fla districts, McCain leads Obama 52-39, similar to what we've seen in other polls.

Also note that there's a discrepancy between the MoEs advertised by Telemundo and the sample sizes they've proffered. The individual district polls included just 300 respondents each, which ordinarily means an MoE of 5.7%. Telemundo for some reason has reported this as just a 5% MoE, but that can't be correct. Similarly, for all three polls (900 respondents), the MoE is higher than the 3% they claim - more like 3.3%.

FL-25: Mario Diaz-Balart in a Tight Race

by: James L.

Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 6:01 PM EDT

Joe Garcia (D): 41
Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±5%)

The only other poll we've seen of this race was a Bendixen survey from June that showed GOP incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart in a similarly tight spot: leading Garcia 44-39.

The most impressive part for Garcia? Obama is losing this district by a 53-38 margin, so he's outperforming the top of the ticket by a significant margin. Markos notes that a new SUSA poll shows Obama on the upswing in Southeast Florida, so perhaps this margin may improve.

Garcia still faces a tough fight ahead of him in this R+4.4 district, but this is clearly shaping up to be the toughest battle of Mario Diaz-Balart's career.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

AK & FL Pre-Primary Fundraising Reports Round-up

by: James L.

Fri Aug 15, 2008 at 12:46 AM EDT

Christine Jennings has yet to file her report, but once she does, it will be available here.

FL-25: Diaz-Balart Claims Support From Wasserman Schultz and Meek

by: James L.

Wed Aug 13, 2008 at 8:28 PM EDT

It's entirely predictable that Diaz-Balart, facing the fight of his political career against Democrat Joe Garcia and barely leading in the latest poll, would pull this pair of Democratic bunnies out of his hat. Note how clearly he is savoring the fact that Schultz and Meek "refuse to help" Garcia, and let that be a lesson to any weak-hearted Dems who give cover to their vulnerable GOP colleagues.

Dems Post Big Registration Surge in Key Florida Districts

by: James L.

Tue Aug 12, 2008 at 5:31 PM EDT

Let's take a look at the numbers in the chart below. In the 2006 column, we have the GOP's voter registration advantage in each district as of October 10th, 2006. In the next column, we have the most recent spread, followed by the net change. In the last column, we've ranked the districts according to the percentage change in the GOP-Dem spread. Take a peek:

The ground is shifting quickly in the Orlando-based 8th District, where GOP Rep. Ric Keller could be facing a real battle to hang onto his seat. The next biggest shift is in South Florida, where Democrats have posted huge registration gains in recent months, and where Democrats Annette Taddeo, Raul Martinez, and Joe Garcia are giving Republican Reps. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and the Diaz-Balart brothers the fight of their lives.

The biggest black eye for Florida Democrats continues to be the open seat of FL-15, where despite having cut into the GOP's voter registration advantage by over 9000 votes, Democrats were not able to find a top-tier candidate for the race. Democrats held retiring Rep. Dave Weldon to a 56-44 margin with an unknown candidate in 2006, but it appears that our candidate this year won't be much stronger: both Democrats in the race have raised under $40K each.

Still, there's a lot of good news here, and we should see some exciting races in Florida this fall.

FL-18, FL-21, FL-25: New Poll Shows Diaz-Balarts in Trouble

by: James L.

Mon Jul 07, 2008 at 10:15 PM EDT

FL-25:

Joe Garcia (D): 39
Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 44
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±5%)

FL-21:

Raul Martinez (D): 37
Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 41
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±5%)

FL-18:

Annette Taddeo (D): 31
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-inc): 58
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±5%)

The McClatchy article on these polls doesn't specify whether or not Bendixen tested registered or likely voters, but given that the poll overlaps with this similarly-targeted Bendixen poll from the same time frame, we'll make the assumption that this is a poll of registered voters.

While two weeks is an awfully long time frame for a congressional poll, the numbers are quite good for Garcia and Martinez, who are putting the GOP's traditional grip on South Florida's Cuban community to the test. Less great are the numbers for Taddeo, but undoubtedly she lags in name recognition compared to Martinez (a longtime former mayor of Hialeah) and Garcia (the former director of the Cuban-American National Foundation and Miami-Dade Democratic Chair).

This could be a transformative year in South Florida.

SSP currently rates these races as Likely Republican, but our next round of ratings will come next week and some of these races may be in need of an upgrade.

GOOD Congressional challengers on FISA: The List

by: BruinKid

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 9:16 AM EDT

First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill.  They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.

Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.

FL-25: Joe Garcia Statement on Breaking Bush Aide Resignation

by: Progressive America

Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 6:27 PM EDT

MSNBC:

"Felipe Sixto was promoted on March 1 as a special assistant to the president for intergovernmental affairs and stepped forward on March 20 to reveal his alleged wrongdoing and to resign, White House spokesman Scott Stanzel said Friday. He said Sixto took that step after learning that his former employer, the Center for a Free Cuba, was prepared to bring legal action against him.

Stanzel said the alleged wrongdoing involved the misuse of money when Sixto was an official at the center."

Joe Garcia, candidate for the 25th district of Florida, released the following statement on the resignation:

"Today's developments underscore the fundamental flaws of a policy designed to win votes in Miami and patronize partisan supporters -- not bring freedom to Cuba.

As I have consistently stated in the past, millions of dollars intended to fuel a democratic change in Cuba are ending up in the hands of Bush/Diaz-Balart cronies and never make it to the island. While some of the funds are being properly used, and the program should continue, it is shameful that Bush/Diaz-Balart sidekicks have used it to take advantage of the generosity of the American taxpayer in order to enrich their friends and political allies.

In 2006, the Bush administration was warned by the Government Accountability Office that federal funds to Cuba were being grossly mismanaged and they did nothing. The GAO uncovered that "USAID's internal controls over the awarding of Cuba program grants and the oversight of grantees do not provide adequate assurance that the grant funds are being used properly or that grantees are in compliance with applicable laws and regulations." The report further detailed instances where the review process for granting awards was never completed. The USAID also failed to follow-up with several award recipients to ensure proper use of the funds.

Presented with this compelling evidence, the Bush administration sat on their hands and allowed taxpayer dollars to be wasted. Accordingly, American policy should require that at least 80% of these funds make it to dissident groups on the island. It's time to move beyond the Bush/Diaz-Balart do-nothing politics of cronyism and corruption."

This case could have repercussions in our three South Florida congressional races. The Center for a Free Cuba has been an ardent supporter of the Bush agenda and a leading agent against removing the counterproductive restrictions on family remittances and travel to Cuba. The organization has often called Democrats standing in their way communists and Castro supporters and they have already started doing so against our three challengers.

Stories like this show what Republican rhetoric really is about, fear-mongering and reactionary style politics meant to win elections rather than real substance that will bring change to Cuba.

As Joe Garcia recently stated at DWT on a post on Cuba policy and divisive Republican rhetoric, "We need to put control back into the hands of the Cuban people to make Democracy in Cuba possible. The time to act responsibly is now. We must end the demagoguery about Cuba and allow the wishes of the constituents of the 25th district to prevail."

The end of the fundraising quarter is just days away. Please help Blue Majority endorsed Joe Garcia fight back against Republican tactics on Cuba by contributing to the campaign on Act Blue.

Disclosure: Member of Joe Garcia Campaign team.

Joe Garcia: Thank You Blue Majority

by: Progressive America

Thu Mar 20, 2008 at 6:44 PM EDT

I spoke with Joe earlier and he is very appreciative of the enthusiasm and support from the Dailykos, Open Left, and Swing State Project communities on the Blue Majority endorsement and wanted to say thank you. This campaign started in the Netroots and he wants to actively involve the blogosphere and progressive community in his campaign and if elected, in Congress.

Today the campaign released the following statement.

FL-18, FL-21, FL-25: Wasserman Schultz Wants Dem Challengers to Lose

by: James L.

Sun Mar 09, 2008 at 7:15 PM EDT

In early 2006, Congressman Alcee Hastings, a Florida Democrat, was quoted in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel speaking sympathetically of Congressman Shaw, one of Emanuel's top Republican targets.  Hastings, because of his friendship with Shaw, also refused to endorse Shaw's Democratic challenger, Ron Klein.  In the Sun-Sentinel article, Hastings even gave Shaw strategic advice on how to defeat Klein, advocating that he knock on doors to connect personally with voters rather than relying on television ads as he had in the past.  Then, in a closed meeting of Democratic House members, Hastings chastised Emanuel and the DCCC for not recruiting more candidates across the country, saying Democrats needed to run a respectable candidate in every House district.

[...]It enraged Emanuel, who saw Hastings as typifying those of his fellow Democrats who were content to criticize but did nothing to help the cause.  "He's great on lectures," Emanuel said of Hastings.  "Phenomenal lecturer.  I'm getting a lecture on recruitment when A, you haven't done a goddamn thing and B, we've got a [Republican] target and you're out there kissing his ass in the press?"

Keep Emanuel's indignation in mind as you hear the following story of betrayal in South Florida.

Sensing a shift in the political climate of the traditionally solid-GOP turf of the Miami area, Democrats have lined up three strong challengers -- Miami-Dade Democratic Party chair Joe Garcia, former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez, and businesswoman Annette Taddeo to take on Reps. Mario Diaz-Balart, Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, respectively.

While there is an enormous sense of excitement and optimism surrounding these candidacies, some Democratic lawmakers, including Florida Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Kendrick Meek, are all too eager to kneecap these Democratic challengers right out of the starting gate in the spirit of "comity" and "bipartisan cooperation" with their Republican colleagues:

But as three Miami Democrats look to unseat three of her South Florida Republican colleagues, Wasserman Schultz is staying on the sidelines. So is Rep. Kendrick Meek, a Miami Democrat and loyal ally to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. [...]

This time around, Wasserman Schultz and Meek say their relationships with the Republican incumbents, Reps. Lincoln Diaz-Balart and his brother Mario, and Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, leave them little choice but to sit out the three races.

"At the end of the day, we need a member who isn't going to pull any punches, who isn't going to be hesitant," Wasserman Schultz said.

Now, you'd expect this kind of bullshit from a backbencher like Alcee Hastings, but you wouldn't expect this kind of behavior from the co-chair of the DCCC's Red to Blue program, which is the position that Wasserman Schultz currently holds.  Apparently, Debbie did not get Rahm's memo about doing whatever it takes to win:

The national party, enthusiastic about the three Democratic challengers, has not yet selected Red to Blue participants. But Wasserman Schultz has already told the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee that if any of the three make the cut, another Democrat should be assigned to the race.

"It needs to be somebody who can roll up their sleeves," Wasserman Schultz said. "I'm just not that person; it's just too sensitive for me."

Hey, Debbie: there are no recusals in politics.  If you want to consider yourself a "rising star" in the Democratic caucus, don't think you can get away with this:

A day later, Wasserman Schultz and Ros-Lehtinen lavished compliments on each other at a Washington luncheon with Miami-Dade commissioners. "I can't say enough good things about Ileana Ros-Lehtinen; she has been my friend since I was first elected to office," Wasserman Schultz said, noting she relied on Ros-Lehtinen's advice to help balance the demands of elected office and motherhood. (emphasis added)

Debbie's behavior is tantamount to no-confidence in Joe Garcia, Raul Martinez, and Annette Taddeo, and a betrayal of her fellow Democrats everywhere.

I have a few suggestions for Debbie, if she's at all interested in saving her credibility within the DCCC, the caucus, grassroots Dems and pretty much everyone who cares about Team Blue: enthusiastically endorse all three of these candidates and organize a fundraiser for each of them.  It's the least she could do to help undo the damage that she's inflicted in South Florida.

Ask yourself: What would Rahm do?

(Hat-tip: FLA Politics)

FL-18, FL-21, FL-25: Democratic Troika Complete?

by: James L.

Tue Jan 22, 2008 at 11:49 PM EST

The first heavy hitter, former Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez, threw his hat into the ring against Lincoln Diaz-Balart yesterday.

Are two more challengers on the way?  Local NBC6 political reporter Nick Bogert reports that the Democrats will field a full slate against the Miami-area incumbents:

Democrats hope to take on all three long-time Cuban-American congressional Republicans, Bogert said.

Miami-Dade County party chair Joe Garcia said he will challenge Mario Diaz-Balart, and businesswoman Annette Taddeo will take on Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

Democrats may even set up political action committees to pay for advertisements attacking all three Republican incumbents, Bogert said. He said to expect Republicans to spend a lot to defend those seats.

Garcia, chair of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party and former Cuban-American National Foundation executive director, is the real deal, and should be an excellent candidate.

This is the first I've heard of Annette Taddeo, but her official biography is impressive.

Get ready for some south Florida barn-burners.

Joe Garcia: Stop the demagoguery about Cuba

by: Progressive America

Fri Dec 07, 2007 at 2:34 PM EST

FL-25: Enough of Mario Already, Ask Joe to Get In!

by: Progressive America

Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 9:57 AM EST

It all started a few weeks ago. Joe Garcia, who serves as Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chairman and Cuban American National Foundation Executive Director (as well as a host of other activities), was interviewed by The Hill. In the interview, he said he would consider running for Congress in the 25th district, if he was asked to.

FL-21, FL-25: Expect Announcements in January

by: James L.

Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 12:03 AM EST

For those not on the email list of the Miami-Dade County Democratic Party, here's what Joe Garcia said in response to the rush of interest in drafting him for Congress: "While I am still far from making a decision, I do want to say that your kindness and support are very humbling and much appreciated!" [...]

Garcia's email concluded with mention of the new web site draftgarcia.com, so I think it's safe to say he's not against running against Mario Diaz-Balart in District 25. In an interview Friday with Nicole Sandler on WINZ AM940, he said it was a matter of convincing his wife and young daughter that it was right for the family.

Expect a decision by the second half of January, he said. [...]

Meanwhile, there's a growing web site to draft Raul Martinez, former mayor of Hialeah, to run for Congressional District 21, the seat held by Lincoln Diaz-Balart. You can hear Joe Garcia encouraging Martinez to run, in that clip on WINZ. Again, a decision likely in January.

Garcia said he knows of a handful of possible candidates to run against Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in Congressional District 18, and he's encouraging them to consider it strongly.

I don't know about you, but I'm looking forward to having two or perhaps even three barn-burning races in South Florida to follow next year.

Update: Over in the diaries, Progressive America has much more info on FL-25 and Joe Garcia.