• CA-Sen: What's with the California politicians who are too busy to vote? Carly Fiorina has previously conceded that she didn't vote in all elections, but today her camp is admitting that she didn't vote at all in the period between 1989 and 1999.
• CT-Sen: After a mediocre fundraising quarter (of course, between prostate cancer and pinch-hitting at the helm of the HELP committee, he may have had better things to do), Chris Dodd is getting some high-level help. Barack Obama will appear on Dodd's behalf at a fundraiser in Connecticut next week.
• FL-Sen: Two very different pictures of where Charlie Crist's approval stands, from different pollster. Insider Advantage finds his approval at a puzzlingly low 48/41,and 55/38 among Republicans. (They didn't poll the primary or general.) On the other hand, a poll by Republican pollster Cherry Communications on behalf of the Florida Chamber of Commerce finds 62/28. Meanwhile, Charlie Crist's losing streak among the party base continued, as Marco Rubio racked up a big win with the Palm Beach GOP, winning their straw poll 90-17. (While most of the straw polls have happened in rural, teabaggy places, this is moderate, country club terrain, where Crist should play better.) Interestingly, ex-NH Senator Bob Smith, whose existence most people, me included, had forgotten about, pulled in 11 votes.
• NV-Sen: Facing bad poll numbers but armed with gigantic piles of cash, Harry Reid has already started advertising for his re-election. Despite his decades in office, he's running a TV spot basically intended to introduce himself to Nevada, seeing as how many of the state's residents have moved in since the last time he was elected in 2004.
• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand reported another large cash haul this quarter, bringing in $1.6 mil and sitting on $4.1 mil CoH. Nevertheless, she still needs to work on introducing herself to her constituents (granted, there's a lot of them); a Newsday/Siena poll of Long Islanders find that she has a favorable of 23/27, with 50 saying they don't know.
• OH-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rob Portman doubled up on Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in the money chase in Ohio, raising $1.3 million to $620K for Fisher. Portman will still need to get past wealthy auto dealer Tom Ganley in the primary, though, who's pledging to spend up to $7 million of his own money on the race, which could drain Portman nicely before he faces off against a Democrat. No word yet from Fisher's Dem opponent, SoS Jennifer Brunner, although the fact that she just replaced her campaign finance team can't be an encouraging sign.
• PA-Sen: This would be a big 'get' for Joe Sestak if he were running in Connecticut: Ned Lamont, whose successful primary defeat of Joe Lieberman in 2006 established some precedent for Sestak, gave Sestak his endorsement.
• CT-Gov: Jodi Rell is not looking much like a candidate for re-election, if her fundraising is any indication; she raised just $14K over the last quarter. The Dems in the race (who are running with or without a Rell retirement), Stamford mayor Dan Malloy and SoS Susan Bysiewicz, have each raised over $100K.
• FL-Gov: The poll paid for by the Florida Chamber of Commerce, mentioned above, also took a look at the Florida governor's race. They see GOP AG Bill McCollum beating Dem state CFO Alex Sink, 42-35.
• NJ-Gov: Rasmussen polls the New Jersey gubernatorial race again, and there's a pretty important distinction between their results with and without leaners pushed. Their topline numbers are 45 for Chris Christie, 41 for Jon Corzine, and 9 for Chris Daggett, a bit more Christie-favorable than what else we've seen this week. However, in Rasmussen's words, "when voters are asked their initial choice," it's a 38-38 tie between Christie and Corzine, with 16 for Daggett. This should superficially cheer Democrats, but it also points to some hope for Christie, in that it shows just how soft a lot of Daggett's support is. (Rasmussen also finds that 57% of Daggett's supporters say they could change their minds before Election Day.)
• WY-Gov: Gov. Dave Freudenthal is at least offering some sort of timeline on deciding whether to seek a third term, but we'll need to wait a long time. He says he'll let us know after the end of the next legislative session, in March; the end of the filing period is May 28. He also didn't offer much insight into when he'd set about challenging the state's term limits law in court (a challenge he'd be expected to win, but one that could be time-consuming) if he did decide to run.
• FL-10: The retirement speculation surrounding 79-year-old Rep. Bill Young isn't going to go away with his fundraising haul this quarter: only $4,500, with $419K on hand. He's also giving away money (to the tune of $10,000) to the NRCC, despite facing a strong challenge next year. Unfortunately, his Dem challenger, state Sen. Charlie Justice, had a second straight lackluster quarter of his own, bringing in $77K for $101K CoH.
• FL-19: A roundup from the newly-merged CQ/Roll Call looks at the quickly developing field in the dark-blue 19th, for a special election to replace the soon-to-resign Robert Wexler. The big question is whether Wexler throws his support behind state Sen. Peter Deutch; Deutch won Wexler's old state Senate seat (which covers more than half the 19th) in 2006 partly due to Wexler's endorsement. West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel is another possibility; so too are Broward County mayor Stacy Ritter and state Sen. Jeremy Ring, although their Broward County bases don't overlap as well with the 19th. Broward County Commissioner Ben Graber (who finished 3rd in the 1996 primary that Wexler won) is already in the race.
• LA-02: Um, what? GOP Rep. Joe Cao will be appearing with Barack Obama in New Orleans at several events today. While it's apparently customary for presidents to invite local lawmakers to appearances in their districts, it's also customary for members of the opposition party to decline. Cao, however, probably sees hitching his wagon to Obama as at least a faint hope of staving off defeat in this strongly Democratic district. Cao's fundraising numbers for last quarter were pretty good, with $394K raised, but his burn rate was terrible, churning through nearly all of it ($382K) with high costs for direct mail fundraising.
• NY-01: We could have a real races on our hands in the 1st, where Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop's Republican challenger Randy Altschuler reported $659K in the third quarter. Of course, $450K of that was from his own pocket, and a grand total of one donor was actually from within the 1st, with the bulk of the rest of the money coming from Manhattan.
• Census: David Vitter, who, with Robert Bennett, is leading the Republican charge to get the Census to ask respondents about their citizenship status, has decided to modify his amendment to this year's appropriations package after one of the academics who he was relying on said that such a measure would scare off respondents from participating in the census at all. Not that it would matter, since it's not likely to get an up-or-down vote, and Commerce Sec. Gary Locke already made clear that it's way too late to make changes to the 2010 forms, which have already been printed and shipped.
• Polling: PPP's Tom Jensen notes, that generally, Republicans aren't picking up any new voters; the main problem with the upcoming New Jersey and Virginia elections is that Democrats have disproportionately lost interest. If the 2008 voter universes still applied in NJ and VA, Democrats would be winning both races handily.
It looks like ol' C.W. isn't buying what Charlie Crist is sellin'. From the St. Petersburg Times:
We should have known when U.S. Rep. C.W. Bill Young showed up to his interview with Charlie Crist in tennis shoes and an untucked polo shirt. He won't be applying to fill Mel Martinez's unexpired term.
"I have the best job in the world now, and I work for the best people in the world. I would not want to leave in the middle of a term. I'm not a quitter," said Young, 78, who has been Crist's congressman for most oif the governor's life. "Truth of the mattter is I can do far more for Florida and Pinellas county where I am than if I took a different job."
Young still refuses to say whether or not he'll run for a 21st term in 2010, but he sure doesn't sound like a guy who wants to hang up his spurs just yet.
After Lincoln Diaz-Balart pulled the plug on his potential Senate appointment, speculation turned to the elderly Rep. Bill Young as the only other remaining choice for Crist to tap from the state's congressional delegation for the gig. Florida GOP Chair Jim Greer recently leaked that Young was under consideration, but now Crist has made it official:
Gov. Charlie Crist's press shop just issued an update confirming Crist has asked longtime Congressman Bill Young to apply for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Mel Martinez. But Rep. Young, R-Indian Shores, said earlier today that the topic of Young filling the post did not come up during a 15-minute conversation Saturday night with Gov. Crist.
Instead, the conversation, initiated by Crist, centered on what kind of person would be good for the job, Young said. Young said he told the governor the choice would reflect on Crist as he campaigns for the seat during the 2010 election cycle.
Young, though, is striking a noncommittal tone because, he claims, he's reluctant to hang it up:
As to whether he would consider it, Young, 78, was cautious about committing.
"I don't think I'm prepared to say yes or no,'' he said. "It's purely hypothetical.''
On the other hand, he didn't sound like someone who would be ready to step aside for Crist at the end of the interim term.
"Anybody he appoints is going to have to understand that Charlie says he's going to run for a full term. That's a big issue with me,'' Young said. "Am I really ready to retire at the end of the term?"
One door closes, another opens. After Lincoln Diaz-Balart put the kibosh on his Senate appointment, the latest word is that near-octogenarian and Tampa Bay-area congressman Bill Young is under consideration for the appointment:
RPOF chairman Jim Greer just confirmed that longtime Congressman C.W. Bill Young of Indian Shores is among those being considered to fill U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez's seat for the remainder of the term.
Young could be an ideal choice for Gov. Charlie Crist, given his Tampa Bay roots and his respect and clout on the Hill. But Young's move to the Senate could put what is arguably the state's most competitive congressional seat up for grabs.
No word yet on Young's interest, but this would make a lot more sense for a guy who's both long in the tooth and facing his most competitive re-election campaign in eons from state Sen. Charlie Justice. And if Young did decide to cap off his career with a Senate hoedown, his open House seat would likely be the site of a huge special election battle. It's about as closely-divided at the partisan level as they come; Gore won the district by 2% in 2000, but the area went for Bush by two points four years later. Last November, Obama carried the district by a 51-47 margin.
UPDATE: A couple more items off the Florida Senate appointment wire: Ex-Rep. Clay Shaw says that "my phone's not ringing", essentially signaling that Crist is not interested in giving him the job. Meanwhile, the St. Pete Times gives a rundown of the pros and cons of the major choices under consideration.
One of the new initiatives over at the NRCC under Pete Sessions' watch has been the creation of its "Patriot Program", a Frontline-like fundraising effort to shore up the most vulnerable Republicans in the House. The first round was launched in May, and now the NRCC is adding 15 new names to the effort. Roll Call has the dirt, but here are the targeted district in sortable chart form:
Incumbent
District
PVI
2008 Margin
Mike Rogers
AL-03
R+9
6%
Mary Bono Mack
CA-45
R+3
14%
Bill Posey
FL-15
R+6
11%
Tom Rooney
FL-16
R+5
20%
Mario Diaz-Balart
FL-25
R+5
6%
Lynn Jenkins
KS-02
R+9
5%
John Fleming
LA-04
R+11
<1%
Bill Cassidy
LA-06
R+10
8%
Michele Bachmann
MN-06
R+7
3%
Blaine Luetkemeyer
MO-09
R+9
3%
Lee Terry
NE-02
R+6
4%
Scott Garrett
NJ-05
R+7
14%
Dean Heller
NV-02
R+5
11%
Charlie Dent
PA-15
D+2
18%
Cynthia Lummis
WY-AL
R+20
10%
It's a bit of a weird list, one that's a mixture of incumbents in real danger (Bachmann, Terry, Dent) and more than a few names who I don't expect will receive serious challenges this cycle (Garrett, Jenkins, the Louisiana twins, and Luetkemeyer) or anytime soon (Lummis). While the first batch of Patriot participants came predominantly from Obama districts, the opposite is true for this second round. Only Bono Mack, Terry, and Dent occupy districts that Obama won (though McCain barely won NV-02). Amusingly, birther nutcase Bill Posey finds his way onto the list; you may remember Posey as the guy whom the DCCC could find no warm body to run against in 2008, other than Mike Gravel fan Stephen Blythe.
Also interesting is who ain't on the list for the second time in a row: Bill Young (FL-10) and Mike Castle (DE-AL). Both are facing strong challengers (though Charlie Justice has some work to do), and while Castle admits that a re-election bid is unlikely, the geriatric Young's exclusion seems more telling. Or is the NRCC perhaps hedging its bets?
• NH-Sen: You may remember several weeks ago when John Sununu reassured the rabble that Kelly Ayotte was, in fact, a fire-breathing conservative. A recent hire, though, suggests she might be trying to position herself as a New England moderate -- she brought aboard Thomas Daffron for her campaign, a former Susan Collins consultant and CoS to William Cohen. Which, again, will only increase the likelihood of a Fred Tausch and/or Ovide Lamontagne challenge from the right.
• NY-Sen-B: Harry Reid weighed in on the New York Senate primary, endorsing Kirsten Gillibrand, calling her a "rising star in the Democratic caucus." Meanwhile, Joe Trippi, who's been working for the Carolyn Maloney campaign (for which he received $10K in the second quarter), got busted for one of blogging's cardinal sins when posting at HuffPo: not disclosing a paid relationship with a candidate.
• AK-Gov: Sean Parnell isn't even Governor yet (he takes over on the 26th), and would-be rivals are already sizing him up. The former state House Speaker, John Harris, announced that he'll run against Parnell in the 2010 GOP primary. Which may seem odd, since Parnell is nowhere near as polarizing as predecessor Sarah Palin... but that may be exactly what's motivating the more combative Harris, as he may think the inoffensive Parnell is something of a pushover, as seen by Parnell's inability to close the deal against corrupt Don Young in the 2008 GOP House primary.
• MN-Gov: The field keeps growing, as two more Republicans made it official in the last couple days that they're candidates for the gubernatorial nomination next year: state Senator David Hann and former state Auditor Pat Anderson.
• NY-Gov: AG Andrew Cuomo's mouth may be saying that he's not running against David Paterson in next year's gubernatorial primary, but his wallet says otherwise. Cuomo raised $5.1 million in the last six months, which more than doubles up on Paterson, who raised $2.3 million in the same period.
• CO-04: The media war over cap-and-trade continues in CO-04 as well as in VA-05; the Environmental Defense Action Fund (paid for by green energy companies) is running a thank-you ad on TV in favor of Rep. Betsy Markey's cap-and-trade vote. She's already had a thank-you TV ad from Americans United for Change run in her favor, and been the target of NRCC robocalls as well (but no TV from them, at least yet).
• FL-10: More bad PR for Rep. Bill Young, whose bad fundraising quarter suggests he might be looking to cash in his chips. Young had to kill a $4 million earmark for St. Petersburg defense contractor Conax, after Conax was raided by federal agents several days ago. Conax has been a frequent recipient of the largesse of Young, the ranking Republican on Appropriations, to the tune of $28.5 million in earmarks since 2005. (Perhaps not coincidentally, Young received $123,000 in contributions in the last two years from defense contractors for whom he's seeking earmarks this year.)
• FL-13: With Rep. Vern Buchanan facing big legal questions over sketchy campaign finance practices, Dems need to have someone credible on deck here to capitalize in case Buchanan implodes. Looks like they've found a credible challenger: pastor and former Bradenton city councilor James Golden.
• MN-06: With local heavyweight state Sen. Tarryl Clark jumping into the Democratic field, 2008 candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg (who came within 3 points of unseating Rep. Michele Bachmann) is making noises that he may go all the way to the primary regardless of what Clark does. In most states, that wouldn't be the least bit surprising, but remember that Minnesota picks its DFL nominees by nominating endorsing convention prior to the primary and it's highly unusual to see contested primaries. With former UM regent Maureen Reed clearly also a serious candidate (based on her last fundraising quarter), this looks like it'll be dramatic.
• MS-03: So maybe you were wondering what was happening a year ago when thirty-something GOP rising star Rep. Chip Pickering, who'd been considered a likely successor to Trent Lott's Senate seat, instead of going for that or even running for re-election, simply dropped out of politics altogether. Well, turns out he was given an ultimatum by his mistress of choosing between her or politics (which, in rural Mississippi, would require continuing his sham marriage to his wife) -- and, somewhat unpredictably, he chose the mistress. The kicker? Pickering was, at the time, a resident of the now-infamous C Street townhouse, making him a roommate of John Ensign and ex-roomie of Mark Sanford.
• NY-23: Just a reminder, in case you were thinking of running for Congress: today is the deadline for Democratic applicants for the nomination in the open seat race in NY-23 to make their intentions known. Still no word on whether or not state Sen. Darrel Aubertine is planning to take the plunge or not.
• OH-AG: We finally have some confirmation about what "statewide" office former Sen. Mike DeWine was planning to run for. It's been leaked that next week he'll announce a run for Attorney General (and not Governor). He'll face Democratic incumbent Richard Cordray, who took over in mid-term from Marc Dann.
• CA-32: Congratulations to Judy Chu, who will be the newest member of the House Democrats. She defeated Republican Betty Chu in last night's special election, by a margin of 62-33, with the balance going to Libertarian Chris Agrella. (It's a bit of an underperformance in the district, where Obama won 68-30, so I'm wondering if the Chu/Chu confusion actually ate into her share a bit. Or, it could just be a highly unmotivated base on a day when nothing else was on the ballot.)
• AR-Sen: State Senator Kim Hendren, last heard from calling Chuck Schumer "that Jew" when he couldn't think of his name, had something of a reprise yesterday, referring to African-American federal judge Brian Miller as "this new minority judge." Don't confuse Hendren with other GOP candidate Curtis Coleman, who's the one who thought you should "get shots" before going down to southeast Arkansas.
• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk -- who's had some past problems with the space-time continuum -- has pinned down a date for announcing his Senate candidacy: Monday the 20th. Meanwhile, he's been lunching with his would-be colleagues among the Senate Republicans at their weekly policy luncheon.
• NV-Sen: Both the Nevada GOP and minority leader Mitch McConnell sound more than a little uncomfortable with the idea of John Ensign running for re-election in 2012. Meanwhile, Nevada's other Senator, Harry Reid, pulled down $3.25 million last quarter, a very large haul indeed for someone who can't count on mommy and daddy to write him a big check.
• NY-Sen-B: Two more endorsements for Kirsten Gillibrand in the face of a potential primary with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, both of which ought to help her with the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party: Planned Parenthood's political wing, and, reportedly, Howard Dean himself. Latest fundraising reports point to Gillibrand doubling up on Maloney, both in terms of 2Q results and cash on hand.
• MN-Gov: Dems dodged a bullet in Minnesota: former GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad (of MN-03) announced that he won't run for governor in 2010, either as a Republican or (as sometimes rumored) for the Independence Party. The likable and generally moderate Ramstad would have been probably the toughest foe the GOP could have put up. (Norm Coleman is better known, of course, but not very well-thought-of anymore, if that recent PPP poll is any indication.)
• NC-Gov: PPP took a look at Bev Perdue's job approvals halfway through her first year in office, and, well, let's just say we should be glad she isn't up for re-election in 2010. Her approvals are now 25-55, down from a high of 44% in March. PPP says that's the worst individual performance of anyone they've polled this year except for Roland Burris!
• CA-47: Shades of Tom McClintock, anybody? GOP Assemblyman Van Tran, who's running against Loretta Sanchez in the 47th (and had a good fundraising quarter, pulling down $250,000), has just filed the paperwork to run for State Senate in 2012. Considering that the State Senate (and its term limits) can't really be seen as a promotion from the U.S. House, could this be a sign of how confident Tran is about the future of his challenge to Sanchez?
• FL-10: In the wake of Mike Castle's tepid fundraising numbers, a similar number leaps out from the Bill Young camp: he only raised $50,155 last quarter (with $437K CoH). Is retirement on the horizon? Of course, his Dem challenger, state Sen. Charlie Justice, hasn't been burning up the charts either, with an $86K quarter.
• NC-08: Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory is getting his name out there, perhaps while testing the waters for an NC-08 run, CQ observes. He's joining Americans for Prosperity (a group that's been linked to the teabagging movement) on their "Patients First Tour" in several North Carolina cities (including a stop in Wingate, which is in the 8th).
• PA-06: No surprise: with Rep. Jim Gerlach officialy out (and in the gubernatorial race), next-in-line state Rep. Curt Schroder officially got in the race to be the GOP nominee in the 6th. On the Dem side, Doug Pike seems to be marching unopposed to the nomination; rather than seeing other Dem candidates jump in now that Gerlach finally hit 'eject,' he's starting to score some endorsements, starting with Rep. Patrick Murphy from the nearby 8th today.
• OH-???: This is kind of strange way to drum up publicity, but former Sen. Mike DeWine has announced that next week he'll announce his campaign plans for "statewide office," without specifying which one. Attorney General seems likely, since John Kasich already has a firm grasp on the governor's race. Does Ohio have a statewide "dogcatcher" position?
• AL-St. House: In a special election last night, Dems lost an open, Dem-held state House seat in the Huntsville area (the same area where they lost a special election for a Dem-held open state Senate seat earlier this year). The seat was open because state Rep. Sue Schmitz was forced to resign because she was convicted of fraud, so this race kind of had a pall over it from the beginning. GOPer Phil Williams beat Dem Jenny Askins 60-39; this cuts the Dem advantage in the House to 61-44.
• DNC/RNC: The RNC seems to win the fundraising month for March, in a bit of a split decision. The DNC reported $7.57 million in contributions last month, while the RNC pulled in $6.7 million. However, $2 million of those Democratic dollars were transferred from the Obama campaign. More ominously, the RNC is sitting on $23.9 million cash on hand and no debt, while the DNC has $9.7 million cash on hand and $6.9 million in debt.
• IL-Sen: Hot on the heels of his $845 fundraising quarter, the new Rasmussen poll shows Roland Burris might want to make some post-2010 plans. 4% of respondents say they will "definitely" vote for him and 54% will vote against, with 39% saying it depends on who's running. 62% think he should resign, with 24% believing he should remain in the Senate. (The poll doesn't test Burris in any head-to-heads.) The poll also finds Jesse Jackson Jr. looking badly tarnished in the wake of the Blagojevich implosion: his favorables are now 32-63. One other tidbit that makes Lisa Madigan's job harder if she runs for IL-Gov: Pat Quinn's job approval is a surprisingly high 61-37.
• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln has drawn at least one legitimate challenger for 2010: state senate minority leader Kim Hendren has announced his candidacy. Hendren has self-funding abilities and a strong base in northwest Arkansas (the traditionally Republican part of the state), which at least gives him a leg up in the primary. Hendren, however, is old (71)... old enough that one claim to fame is that he lost a race to Bill Clinton (the 1982 gubernatorial primary, when Hendren was still a Democrat)... and promising to serve only one term. Lincoln defeated state senators in both her 1998 and 2004 bids.
• NV-Sen, NV-02: GOP Rep. Dean Heller says that "his plan today" is to run for re-election, but he's also refusing to rule out a run against Handsome Harry Reid. (J)
• IL-14: After getting their pants kicked in by Democrat Bill Foster in two consecutive elections, the Illinois GOP may turn to the Name You Know in 2010 -- Dennis Hastert's son, Ethan. 31 year-old Ethan Hastert, a Chicagoland attorney, says that he's "exploring" a run for his dad's old seat, and is already polling his name against Foster in a trial poll. Ethan's previous claim to fame: serving as assistant to Lewis "Scooter" Libby. (J)
• FL-05: Jim Piccillo will be challenging Ginny Brown-Waite in this light-red district. Piccillo has an interesting backstory: no previous political experience, and was a Republican until last year when he was driven away by the tenor of the campaign, but the recipient of a lot of media exposure after being profiled by the NYT in a feature on Florida Republicans abandoning the party. At least he sounds better than this guy.
• Polltopia: Our friends at Public Policy Polling are once again letting readers decide which Senate race they'll poll next. The choices: Georgia, Illinois, and Oklahoma. Get busy voting and then tell us which race you picked in the comments. (J)
Democrat Charlie Justice will end a decade-long state legislative career to challenge C.W. Bill Young for Congress. "The decisions made in Washington D.C. more and more impact our daily lives and that's what drew me to public service in the first place," said the 39-year-old state senator from St. Petersburg. "We need people in Washington that understand their decisions have real impact on the families and small businesses here." [...]
Either way, Justice says he's in: "If he decides to retire after 40 years in Washington, we'll thank him for his service and if he decides to run again, we'll have a healthy debate,'' said Justice, an academic adviser at the University of South Florida.
This is another major, major score for the DCCC, who hoped to lure Justice (whose state Senate district is a competitive one which mostly overlaps with Young's 10th CD) into this race last cycle. The 10th District is one of the most evenly-split seats in the nation in terms of its partisan composition; Obama and Gore both won the district under its current lines by four and two points, respectively, while Bush won the district by a 51-49 margin in 2004.
Like Delaware's Mike Castle, Young has routinely won re-election by massive margins, but often against unheralded and unknown challengers. Most recently, Young turned away his latest challenge from Dunedin Mayor Bob Hackworth, whose campaign suffered from being both underfunded and decidedly last-minute, by a 61-39 margin. But also like Castle, Young is getting pretty long in the tooth -- he will turn 80 just weeks after the 2010 elections, and he hasn't had to run a real race in eons. Perhaps the idea of actually needing to run a full-geared campaign will be enough to nudge the old crumb-bum into retirement.
• NY-20 (pdf): The morning update on the NY-20 absentee count finds Scott Murphy padding his skimpy lead a bit, up to 168. There was a partial report of absentees from Warren County (one of the strongholds of the Murphy clan), and the expected report from Saratoga County (Tedisco country) didn't materialize, so this may be only a temporary surge. Democratic number crunchers, starting with Nate Silver, are sounding increasingly sanguine about the direction the absentee ballots are taking, though. Nate projects about a 500-vote margin for Murphy when all is said and done.
The Albany Project has been all over the sudden increase in ballot challenges by the Tedisco camp (who've moved to challenge second-home voters and student voters in the last few days). In the battle of perceptions, however, the GOP may have gone a fridge too far with their latest step, challenging the absentee ballot of NY-20's favorite resident, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand visited the Great Orange Satan and HuffPo to blog about her experience.
• MO-Sen: Polls have given SoS Robin Carnahan a commanding position in the open Missouri senate race, and now she has fundraising numbers to match, posting $1,048,000 in the first quarter.
• OH-Sen: There's one other SoS running for an open senate seat who didn't fare so well, though. Jennifer Brunner pulled in a surprisingly low $200,000. That may pick up once she gets the expected EMILY's List endorsement, but it leaves her lagging behind Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, who raised more than $1 million and is already wearing the mantle of 'establishment' Dem candidate.
• PA-Sen: Joe Torsella, who's never held elective office before but is well-connected in Philadelphia's corridors of power, reported a solid $584,000 in an abbreviated Q1 (only since mid-February).
• OK-Sen: Are you there, God? It's me, Tom Coburn. I can't decide whether or not to run for re-election. (He says he's not playing games; it's a "spiritual thing.") The Club for Growth, in their first act since Chris "Count" Chocola took over, endorsed Coburn today, though.
• TX-Gov: Kinky Friedman, who got 12% of the vote as an independent in the chaotic 2006 Texas governor's race, is doing it again, and this time he's running in the Democratic primary. It's unclear whether this will work to Friedman's advantage, since a lot of his support comes from Paulists, Naderites, and other assorted weirdos who may not be registered Democrats, and Tom Schieffer gives Dem voters a 'normal' option.
• FL-10: Bill Young is always on 'most likely' to retire lists, but the 78-year-old is giving a little more fodder for that mill with today's fundraising report. He raised only $7,100 in the first quarter, sitting on $412K CoH. (He only raised $15K in Q1 of 2007, though, and won easily in 2008.)
• MI-09: Joe Knollenberg won't be back for a rematch against Gary Peters, who unseated him in 2008, but his former chief of staff will. Paul Welday, who's also a former Oakland County GOP chair, will challenge him in 2010. Welday lost a race for the state house in 2008.
• NY-20: Well, we know Scott Murphy can count on getting at least one vote out of the huge pile of absentee ballots in the deadlocked NY-20 election: the ballot of the woman he's seeking to replace, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is one of them.
• NY-29: In an example of political chaos theory at work, the NY-20 election may wind up protecting Rep. Eric Massa several seats over. If Jim Tedisco wins, he's out of his current job as Assembly Minority Leader, and even if he loses, there have been rumblings to replace him anyway. His replacement as Minority Leader would likely be Brian Kolb, who, if he took the position, would probably want to focus on that and no longer be the top GOP pick to take on Eric Massa in NY-29. (Other potential GOP candidates in NY-29 include Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks and state senators Cathy Young and George Winner.)
• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter is already defending his right flank with ads attacking ex-Rep. Pat Toomey, in preparation for the 2010 primary. Specter's ad sounds a bit, um, Democratic, attacking Toomey for favoring deregulation, wanting to privatize Social Security, and for the unforgivable sin of having traded CDSs when he was working on Wall Street.
• MN-Sen: The next step in the MN-Sen saga has national implications: governor Tim Pawlenty has to decide, once the Minnesota Supreme Court rules, whether to go ahead and sign the certificate declaring Al Franken the winner (and, y'know, follow the rule of law)... or whether to continue to obstruct Franken in order not to alienate the rabid Republican base he'll need in 2012 if he's going to have any hope in the presidential primary.
• OH-Sen: I know I wouldn't buy a used car from Rob Portman, but he finally has some competition in the GOP primary, and it's a guy a lot of people apparently have bought used cars from. Cleveland-area car dealer Tom Ganley has also entered the race (although he shouldn't be more than a speed bump for the heavily-funded Portman).
• AK-AL: Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell is "considering" another primary run at Rep. Don Young. One negative for Parnell is that, this time, he'd have to give up his LG slot for a 2010 run. But there's also the possibility that the federal investigation into Young may actually yield something in the next few years.
• DCCC: The DCCC launched a new radio spot in the districts of six GOP representatives in Democratic-leaning seats, attacking them for voting against the middle-class tax cuts contained in the stimulus package. The targets are Mike Castle (DE-AL), Ken Calvert (CA-44), Bill Young (FL-10), Thad McCotter (MI-11), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Mike McCaul (TX-10).
• LA-02: The Anh Cao Watch continues! GOP leading lights John McCain and Rep. Paul Ryan (WI-01) were recently seen jawing with Cao, who hasn't yet decided how he'll vote on the Democrats' budget resolution. Would he really defect? And would it even matter? (D)
• Census: The new pick for Census Director has been announced, and if the squealing emitting from Patrick McHenry is any indication, it's a good pick. It's Robert Groves, a Univ. of Michigan professor who was the Census's associate director for statistical design in the early 90s. Groves is a proponent of statistical sampling, which is the main flashpoint in debate over the census. Commerce Sec. Gary Locke has indicated that sampling won't be used for redistricting purposes, but will be used for increased accuracy (for purposes of allocating federal funds, for instance).
Here's a race that you don't see polled every day.
Anzalone-Liszt for Bob Hackworth (9/7-11, likely voters):
Bob Hackworth (D): 33
C.W. "Bill" Young (R-inc): 50
(MoE: ±4.4%)
This is a D+1 district that Young has held since 1971. Despite occupying a district that voted for Bill Clinton twice, and Al Gore by a slim margin in 2000, Young has regularly won re-election by overwhelming margins. In fact, he weakest showing in his long career was in 1992, when he scored "only" 57% of the vote (the lone time his winning percentage slipped below 60). If this poll is any indication, it looks like he may slip below 60 once again.
Up the ballot, Obama held a 46-40 lead over McCain in this district when this poll was conducted (which, I'll note, was well before the recent Florida surge for Obama). On the generic ballot, Dems hold a 42-34 lead over the GOP, and the undecideds in the congressional contest tilt Dem in their general preferences. While it looks like the general Democratic performance is shaping up to be stronger here than in 2004 (when Kerry lost the district by 49-51), it would probably require a big, big wave to carry Dunedin Mayor Bob Hackworth over the line in this contest.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
A quick round-up of the results from last night's congressional primaries:
AK-Sen (D): Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich won the Democratic Senate nomination with an impressive 91% of the vote, with 98% of precincts reporting.
AK-Sen (R): Ted Stevens survived his primary against banker Dave Cuddy and Floridian beardo Vic Vickers (and several other also-rans), but only with 63.5% of the vote.
AK-AL (D): Ethan Berkowitz won the Democratic nomination for the state's at-large House seat by a 59-41 margin over '06 candidate Diane Benson. Alaskan Independence Party candidate Don Wright received 5600 votes and will appear on the November ballot.
AK-AL (R): With 98% of precincts reporting and many absentee ballots still outstanding, Don Young has taken a 145-vote lead over Sean Parnell. This race is heading into "contentious recount territory" real fast.
FL-08 (D & R): Democrat Alan Grayson upset '06 nominee Charlie Stuart by a 48-28 margin for the right to take on Ric Keller in November. Keller, meanwhile, barely survived his primary challenge from right-wing radio personality Todd Long, with only 53% of the vote to Long's 47%.
FL-09 (D): In a bit of an upset for the DCCC, attorney Bill Mitchell beat out wealthy former Plant City Mayor John Dicks by a 38-33 margin for the nomination against frosh GOP Rep. Gus Bilirakis.
FL-10 (D): Dunedin Mayor Bob Hackworth dispatched '06 nominee and Ron Paul acolyte Samm Simpson by a 47-29 margin for the chance to take on longtime GOP Rep. Bill Young. Max Linn, a self-funding candidate who ran for Governor in 2006 on the Reform ticket, only earned 24% of the vote.
FL-15 (D & R): Physician Stephen Blythe crushed pilot Paul Rancatore by a 65-35 margin for the Democratic nomination for this open seat. Republicans nominated state Sen. Bill Posey with 77% of the vote, and he seems poised to run away with this race come November.
FL-16 (R): Pittsburgh Steelers heir Ed Tom Rooney won a tight three-way race by a 37-35-28 margin for the GOP nod to face off with Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney.
FL-24 (D): Former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas crushed '06 nominee Clint Curtis by a 72-28 margin. Kosmas will face ethically-challenged GOP Rep. Tom Feeney in November.
Polls are now closed in the great state of Florida, where we'll be tracking the results for the Democratic primary in Florida's 8th District, and the GOP primary in Florida's 16th. There are also a number of other primaries in FL-09 (D), FL-10 (D), and FL-15 (D), but we won't be focusing too heavily on those rinky-dink races.
11:23PM (David): In FL-16, Rooney now has an 800-vote lead with just 3% of precincts remaining.
11:14PM (David): Don't touch that dial - we'll be up and running with an Alaska thread any moment now. Polls close there at midnight eastern time.
11:06PM: 77% in, and Harrell is back up by 80. In the words of the immortal Samuel L. Jackson, hang on to your butts.
10:45PM: 75% in, and Rooney is up by 300. Over in FL-09, with 93% reporting, Bill Mitchell has a 950 vote lead over former Plant City Mayor John Dicks. That's something of an upset for the DCCC, who had hoped that Dicks could make this an interesting race. Guess not.
10:29PM: 72% in, and Rooney is hodling onto a 210 vote lead.
10:08PM: With 66% in right now, Rooney is up by 200 votes.
9:58PM: Over in FL-24, Suzanne Kosmas has beaten Clint Curtis by 72-28. No doubt that Curtis will soon gather "sworn affidavits" from voters showing that he actually won.
9:51PM: The see-saw continues in FL-16, where Rooney is back up by 140 votes with 54% in.
9:43PM: Harrell is now up by 310 votes with 49% reporting. Keller is holding on to his 2600 vote lead with 97% in.
9:17PM: Looks like we can now officially close the book on FL-08. With 93% of precincts reporting, Grayson has won by a 48-28-17 margin.
9:07PM: It's even tighter in FL-16 now, with Harrell leading by only 70 votes.
8:46PM: Harrell's lead is now down to about 180 votes. Looks like Mike Gravel fan Stephen Blythe has easily won the Dem privilege to get beaten by Bill Posey over in FL-15.
8:26PM: Keller has pushed ahead to a 2500 vote lead now, while Harrell is clinging to a 400 vote lead over Rooney with 18% in.
8:21PM: Grayson has really run away with FL-08. The results so far are almost a complete reversal of the 2006 primary. Grayson turned a 2500 vote deficit in Orange County into a 5000 vote lead, and close losses in Marion and Lake counties into blowouts. Looks like shaving off the scary beard helped!
8:15PM: SSP is calling FL-10 for Bob Hackworth, who has wrecked shop against Sammwise Simpson and Max Linn.
8:00PM: Grayson has pushed ahead to a 5800 vote lead, while Keller is still holding on by 1600 votes.
7:51PM: The DoS now shows Harrell up with a 1000-vote lead in FL-16.
7:46PM: According to the DoS, Grayson now has a 20% lead over Stuart, with a cushion of 5600 votes. Ric Keller has now padded his margin over Todd Long to 1,500 votes and 4%. Still, this race is way closer than it should have been.
7:40PM: Keller continues to lead by 1,200 votes, and Rooney is now edging ahead to a 200 vote lead with 10% reporting.
7:35PM ET: Rooney is leading Harrell by one vote with 6% reporting in FL-16, according to the AP.
7:26PM ET: Alan Grayson has a big early lead in FL-08 according to the DoS -- 10,922 to Charlie Stuart's 6,065, with Mike Smith lagging in third. More shockingly, Ric Keller is barely beating his right-wing challenger, Todd Long, by 14,850 to 13,743 among the early votes. Wow.
The prize at the end of the primary season in Florida's pristine District 10 is a meeting with 38 year Republican incumbent C.W. "Bill" Young. The democrat that has established himself as the front runner in this race to lead the charge against Bill Young is Dunedin Mayor Bob Hackworth.
Since 2002, Bob Hackworth's leadership in environmental issues, diversity, and civil rights has provided a prime example as to what citizens should expect from him in Congress. His record of good government and visionary efforts in Dunedin also closed the deal on his recent endorsement by the St. Petersburg Times. His grasp on national issues has far out shined his two opponents (Max Linn and Samm Simpson). When confronted with the controversial FISA Act, Bob stood firm to his beliefs, saying
"Once again this administration has shown its disregard for the Constitution. By providing the telecom companies with immunity, the senate will be condoning the extra-constitutional actions of this government and be sending a message to the country and the world that big business comes before the freedoms and liberties of the American people. As usual, Rep. Bill Young sided with the administration in voting to restrict the freedoms that this country was founded on."
Now his district is faced with an even greater dilemma as many feel that it is necessary to include off shore drilling in an energy bill in the future. Despite the Mayor's strong support of Barack Obama, he refuses to compromise with republicans who wish to take part in the decimation of America's coastlines.
"The elected officials who represent the people here in Pinellas County have utterly failed on this issue. We need leaders who will be honest about the energy crisis and invest in searching for alternative energy sources, instead of pandering because of $4 a gallon gasoline."
Expect to hear much more from Bob Hackworth as he raps up his primary victory next week and pushes on towards victory in November.
FL-10: Crumb-bum Bill Young qualified for another term in this tossup district. Three Democrats have filed: Ron Paul aficionado Samm Simpson, '06 Reform Party gubernatorial candidate Max Linn, and Dunedin Mayor (and former Republican) Bob Hackworth. Linn, who won 2% statewide in 2006, has given or lent his campaign over $150K so far. It's an odd field, to be sure. I still wouldn't put it past Young to make a surprise retirement announcement now that the filing deadline has passed.
FL-13: Surprise, surprise. Everyone's favorite purity troll, two-time three-time congressional loser and ex-Democrat Jan Schneider is back -- this time as an independent. With Democrat Christine Jennings locked in a tight battle with frosh Rep. Vern Buchanan, Schneider's ballot antics have just made this race even tougher. It's clear that Schneider has effectively joined the "Stay in Iraq Forever Party" now.
FL-14: Republican state Sen. Burt Saunders has filed to run against incumbent Rep. Connie Mack in this R+10.5 district as an independent. Despite some vote-splitting by Mack and Saunders, this is still going to be a very uphill climb for Democrat Larry Byrnes.
FL-15: Incumbent GOP Rep. Dave Weldon announced his retirement in this R+4.1 district back in January, and Democrats moved immediately to set up a competitive open seat challenge here. But after Nancy Higgs, a former Brevard Co. commissioner, abruptly exited the race, things looked startlingly quiet here. However, just before the deadline passed, Paul Rancatore, a Lt. Colonel in the Air Force reserves, re-entered the race. Rancatore was recruited to run against Weldon last summer, but dropped out of the race in October, citing his mother's health as his overriding concern. Rancatore will face off with physician Stephen Blythe for the Democratic nomination.
Four Republican candidates have filed to run, but the party establishment appears to have closed ranks around state Sen. Bill Posey, who is currently sitting on more than $200K cash-on-hand.
That's right. In the last three months of 2007, Bill Young couldn't even raise four thousand dollars. That's barely a hair better than the five Benjamins that Sen. John Warner raised in the first quarter of 2007.
As I've said before, something smells fishy regarding Bill Young's shambling lurch toward his 20th term. I wouldn't be surprised if Young plans to pull out his parachute at or after the filing deadline.
Roll Call has the scoop: crumb-bum Republican Rep. Bill Young won't announce his plans until the late spring of next year.
Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.) remains quiet on his 2008 re-election plans, confirming Wednesday that any announcement on whether he will seek a 20th term likely will not be made until late next spring. [...]
Despite the 76-year-old Congressman's declaration, strategists in both parties have become increasingly convinced that he will choose to end his Capitol Hill career - potentially jeopardizing another Republican-held House seat. But until he says definitively what he will do, an air of suspended animation hangs over the campaign, with no contenders willing to step forward.
Federal candidates in Florida have until May 2 to register for the state's Aug. 26 primary.
I bet he heads for the exit and pulls the ripcord. My advice to state Sen. Charlie Justice, the Democrat most heavily rumored to enter the race if Young retires? Enter soon and get a head start. This D+1 seat will be ripe for the picking to a strong campaign.
How did you use your extra hour today? I'm going to use mine right here by rounding up various House race flotsam and jetsam from the past several days.
FL-10: Bring 'em to Justice? At a recent Young Democrats breakfast in Florida, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz announced that State Senator Charlie Justice (D), the man whose name is most often mentioned as a potential opponent for crumb-bum Republican Rep. Bill Young, may have "big news" to announce soon.
When pressed for comment, Justice told the St. Petersburg Times that: "If [Young] retires, the seat hasn't been open in 40 years, everyone should take a good look at it. Am I looking at it? Absolutely. Does that mean 100 percent that I'm going to run? No, but it's pretty darn close."
The Times keeps hearing rumors that Young will step down and that his wife will run in his place. With a PVI of D+1, this would be one of the hottest takeover opportunities for Democrats next year. I don't have their sources, but by reading the tea leaves, I suspect that Young will have some "big news" of his own to share soon.
AK-AL: Speaking of crumb-bums named Young, the Defenders of Wildlife are up on the airwaves in Alaska, hitting scandal-tainted Rep. Don Young (R) hard. Let's hope we can make a Pombo out of Young.
NC-09: Remember Harry Taylor, the man who shocked a Republican-friendly audience when he told President Bush, face-to-face at a PR event, that "I would hope from time to time that you have the humility and the grace to be ashamed of yourself"?
Well, he's now running for Congress against Rep. Sue Myrick (R). I welcome the courage that Taylor will bring to this R+12.2 district.
IN-07: With Democratic Rep. Julia Carson's health concerns continuing to affect her House attendance (she's on medical leave until December 15), it looks like Republicans are trying to tap into their minimal bench in Indianapolis in order to pounce on the opportunity. In the 11/5 issue of Indiana Daily Insight (subscription required), it is reported that freshman state Rep. Jon Elrod (R) is "seriously considering" a bid against her. Blue Indiana has more on Elrod, and welcomes the opportunity that his open legislative seat could bring. Could Elrod scare Carson into a retirement? Without one, this heavily Democratic seat (with a PVI of D+8.7) won't be safe.
WY-AL: If Barbara Cubin is planning on running again, she'll be facing a crowded primary. Retired Naval officer Bill Winney, who mounted an underfunded long-shot primary challenge to Cubin in 2006 and walked away from it with 40% of the vote, is running again. However, Winney wouldn't be the only challenger on the ballot: Swede Nelson, a motivational speaker and teacher, is also running, and state Rep. Colin Simpson said earlier in the year that he planned on challenging Cubin for the nomination if she ran again.
If Cubin decides to run again, her only chance of survival is having the anti-incumbent vote split between several different options. Her stock has sunk so low, that I would bet that she'd be in danger of losing a head-to-head match up against even an unknown like Winney. Sadly for us, I strongly suspect that Cubin will hang up her spurs and broomstick.
UPDATE (David):
MD-04: The netroots fundraiser for Donna Edwards has been a huge success so far. We've blasted past our intial goal of 4,000 total donors to Donna (we're at 4,250, in fact). We've also raised around $75,000 so far. We're hoping to hit an even $100,000, so if you can help make it happen, please do so.
Illinois: The filing deadline in the Praire State is tomorrow, Nov. 5th. Illinois has the first Congressional primaries in the nation, on Feb. 5th, so it's no surprise that their filing deadline is so soon. Diarist benawu informs us that IL Dems look to be fielding challengers in all districts except the 15th. We'll know the final shape of our field tomorrow.
Crumb-bum Bill Young has long been considered a potential retirement for the GOP this cycle--and Democrats are hungry for the shot at an open seat race in this tossup district (at D+1, it supported Gore in '00 and Bush in '04 by the slimmest of margins). Let's take a look at some of the press that Young has earned over the year and see what the story tells us:
February 16, 2007 (House Race Hotline):
Nat'l Dems "are aggressively working to recruit someone to run" for Rep. Bill Young's (R) seat, "pegging it as one of their top targets." A DCCC recruiter "recently met with prospective" Dem candidates including ex-state House Speaker Peter Wallace (D), ex-state Rep. Lars Hafner (D) and businessman/neighborhood activist Karl Nurse (D). [...] The challengers, though, have their doubts. Wallace on Young: "I'd be very surprised if a highly competitive campaign could be run against him."
February 20, 2007 (House Race Hotline):
Dems "sounded the opening bell last week," firing off an e-mail from FL party leaders suggesting that Young already "is seated squarely in Dems' sights." They attempted to link Young to the Walter Reed scandal in the e-mail. A DCCC operative suggested that Young's alleged proximity to the Walter Reed scandal likely could be a "rallying point" for an already packed field of "likely" candidates. Dems "are courting" state Sen. Charlie Justice (D), state Reps. Rick Kriseman (D) and Bill Heller (D), ex-FL House Speaker Peter Wallace (D) and hospital Admin. Sue Brody. Dems say GOP leaders are "petrified" Young will opt not to run in '08, which likely would set off a "primary scramble in both parties."
May 15, 2007 (House Race Hotline):
Rep. Bill Young (R) said even he doesn't know "how much longer he'll stay" in Congress. Young: "Nobody knows because I don't know." But will he retire in '08? Young: "Let's be honest: I'm thinking about it more than I did last year or the year before." [...]
But Young's uncertainty has left GOPers "worried that he may be serving his last term."
July 17, 2007 (House Race Hotline):
At 76, Rep. Bill Young (R) is unsure if he wants to retire, but just in case he decides to run, he's "amassing" a "truckload of money." He has nearly $600K CoH for an election that is "more than a year away." Asked if the money was a sign he was running again, Young said, "I think you should take that as a sign that we are prepared to back up whatever decision we make." Young has voted with the GOP 84% of the time so far this year, "the lowest level since 1992, according to an analysis by Congressional Quarterly" (Adair, St. Petersburg Times, 7/17).
August 9, 2007 (House Race Hotline):
State Sen. Charlie Justice (D) was in DC last week "talking" with the DCCC about running against Rep. Bill Young (R). Justice: "A lot of people have been asking me to aat least think about it, consider it." Justice, whose name "is also in the mix" of possible '09 St. Petersburg mayoral cands, so running against Young "might boost" his name ID if Young "waits awhile to retire." Justice: "I don't get into campaigns to raise my name ID for future races or to set myself up for a mayoral race." If I did it, I would run to win."
October 2, 2007: Bill Young votes to deny victims of terrorism financial compensation.
October 13, 2007: Young posts his third quarter fundraising tally:
Bill Young (R-inc): $29K raised; $579K CoH
Huge stunner here. [...] These numbers are positively John Warner-esque. Is Young looking for the exit?
