The SurveyUSA poll is now out, and it shows Elwyn Tinklenberg LEADING Michele Bachmann 47%-44% now.
Granted, that's still a "statistical tie", technically. But still, it's the first poll out there from anyone, even from internals or DCCC polls, that show Tinklenberg with any kind of lead.
And I love that SurveyUSA embedded the infamous Hardball interview in their polling crosstabs. :-)
"This is their agenda," Bachmann states bluntly. "I know it is hard to believe, it's hard to fathom -- but this is 'mission accomplished' for them," she asserts. "They want Americans to take transit and move to the inner cities. They want Americans to move to the urban core, live in tenements, [and] take light rail to their government jobs. That's their vision for America."
El Tinklenberg campaign ad, October 21, 2008:
As Transportation Commissioner, El Tinklenberg... built our first light rail.
We're coming for you, Michele. And we're coming on light rail.
Americans appear ready to sweep a lot of Democrats into office on November 4. Not only does Barack Obama maintain a solid lead in the popular vote and electoral vote estimates, several Senate races that appeared safe Republican holds a few months ago are now considered tossups.
Polling is harder to come by in House races, but here too there is scattered evidence of a coming Democratic tsunami. Having already lost three special Congressional elections in red districts this year, House Republicans are now scrambling to defend many entrenched incumbents.
In this diary, I hope to convince you of three things:
1. Some Republicans who never saw it coming are going to be out of a job in two weeks.
On a related note,
2. Even the smartest experts cannot always predict which seats offer the best pickup opportunities.
For that reason,
3. Activists should put resources behind many under-funded challengers now, instead of going all in for a handful of Democratic candidates.
