That leaves the race in the hands of little known fundraiser Jim Neal. While national Democrats have done a good job convincing themselves that second-tier candidates Jeff Merkley and Marty Chavez are really first-tier candidates, there's no way to spin Neal's candidacy in such a way.
For those keeping track at home, the following North Carolina Democrats have passed on the race:
* Gov. Mark Easley
* Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue
* Treasurer Richard Moore
* AG Roy Cooper
* Raleigh Mayor Charlie Meeker
* Congressman Brad Miller
* State Sen. Kay Hagan
* State Rep. Grier Martin
(Presumably, Congressmen Bob Etheridge, Mike McIntyre, and David Price are also not running)
Maybe Erskine Bowles is still availible.
While Elizabeth Dole has vulnerabilities and North Carolina has a fervent Democratic population, this latest recruitment failure signals that Dole is likely to get a pass this election. Neal may make the race competitive enough for Dole to have to pay attention to it, but her large warchest and sound campaigning skills should allow her to win re-election without a sweat.
Buried in Newsweek's very recent interview with Idaho Governor Otter is this statement:
We've now got five Republicans [retiring or resigning], and I guess there's a few more that may make a statement, from what [Senate Minority Leader] Mitch McConnell's told me.
September was a great month for Senate Democrats. Is started with news that John Warner was retiring, featured the endless saga of Larry Craig's guilty plea to lewd behavior, saw another crucial GOP seat open up in Nebraska and was marked with recruitment coups with the candidacies of Mark Warner in VA and Jeanne Shaheen in NH. In fact, the only bad news Democrats are fearing now is that Bob Kerrey might end up taking a pass in Nebraska -- but even there, the fat lady hasn't yet sung.
All of this is really icing on the cake for Democrats, who already felt great before Labor Day. Not only is the GOP is defending 22 seats, and the Dems only 12, but the NRSC has been doing poorly in fundraising and recruitment, failing to move to target states beyond... the one state of Louisiana. Democrats, on the other hand, are expanding the map left and right: While they are huge underdogs in TN, KY, NM, TX, and ID, odds are they will at least put one of those in play (just like VA in 2006 and KY in 2004 became competitive only in the last stretch). And the most problematic second-tier seat is turning to be Alaska, where incumbent Ted Stevens is facing significant bribery allegations.
The coming weeks are likely to bring more news that will determine how some of these races shape up. Bob Kerrey's decision is obviously what everyone is waiting for, but there are other important questions: Will Craig retire as he had promised? Will there be more open seats, with all eyes turned towards SD's Tim Johnson, AK's Stevens, and NM's Pete Domenici? Will Democrats find candidates to run against Dole in NC, Domenici in NM, Stevens in AK, McConnell in KY? All of these races could end up on the map, but Democrats have to succeed in their recruitment efforts first.
Democratic U.S. Rep. Brad Miller has stepped up his exploratory effort in recent days as he nears a self-imposed deadline of July 1 to decide whether to take on Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole in 2008.
Last week, Miller and his wife, Esther Hall, met for more than an hour with New York Sen. Charles Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
On national maps North Carolina is often colored red. We havent voted for a Democrat for the White House since Carter in 1976. But that might be changing.
In a new poll by Public Policy Polling, when asked who they would vote for in the 2008 Presidential election, 42 percent of voters said a Republican. But, in a huge surprise, 47 percent of voters said a Democrat.
PPP has been doing a lot of tracking polls lately, and I have a large amount of respect for them and their sister company, On Point Polling. This poll was done with 606 voters. The way PPP does their sampling, these were people who will be voting in 2008.
On the heels of a quick scoop in the Charlotte Observer last night was a full length article in the Raleigh News & Observer this morning. That story centered around Rep. Brad Miller (D) contemplating a run against Elizabeth Dole.
"I'm at least going to talk to folks in North Carolina and get a sense of what people are thinking," Miller said Wednesday.
Now with crosstabs (PDF!) Numbers that can only improve:
Amongst Democrats Brad leads 48 to 26 with 26 undecided. Considering Liddy's -20 approval rating amongst Dems, this number should shoot up very quickly.
30% of African Americans are currently undecided, and 26% say Dole. If Brad cant get above 75-90% support by election time I will literally eat my shoe.
Numbers that are already strong:
Dole is as about as high as can be expected amongst Republicans. 70-15. She wont get much of a boost from her base.
Brad already leads amongst independents, 38-33
As for Brad, and his big decision:
Brad is enjoying his time in the US House, so this is a difficult decision for him:
"There is plenty enough for me to say grace over," Miller said. "But there is no doubt it would offer a chance to be more involved in more issues."
However, he had this to say:
"I don't think it will be an easy race for anybody," Miller said. "I think a Democrat can win that race. I think the advantage I'd have -- and any Democrat would have -- is I will never have to be briefed on which state I represent in the Senate."
Later in the article, Senator Dole's strategist had this to say: "When you have someone like Senator Dole, who enjoys broad popularity" Oh really? Im just gonna post a few tiny little "anecdotes" now:
In January she was at 36 approve and 36 dissaprove
In a February poll, she was up to 43 approve and 31 dissaprove.
In a DSCC poll she managed a lofty 49 approve to 46 dissaprove rating, which was matched by her reelect numbers:
Looking ahead to the next election for U.S. senator, will you vote to reelect Elizabeth Dole, consider voting for someone else, or vote to replace Elizabeth Dole with someone new?
Reelect Dole 35%
Consider someone else 26%
Replace 23%
Depends 9%
Not sure 7%
So, what can you do to turn up the heat?
You can give money here.
You can contact the DSCC and ask them to help Brad!
And, you can contat Brad by emailing: brad (at) bradmiller (dot) org
On January 23rd I announced a movement to try and convince Brad Miller to run against Elizabeth Dole. That led to my first reccomended diary on dailykos. That thread (and my signature) has led to over $500 in donations to Brad. While that may seem like a small amount in terms of what is needed to run for Senate (and it is), it is a sign to Brad that we want him to run, and that we think he can win.
Follow below, as I once again lay out the case for Brad.
About a month and a half ago, the Guru offered you his first Retirement Watch post, looking at any GOP Senators who might be considering retirement over a re-election bid for any number of reasons. Here is the Guru's first update of the Retirement Watch:
UP New Mexico's Pete Domenici: Pajamas Pete was on the RW because of his advanced age (he is turning 75 this May) and questionable mental state. Over the last several weeks, his role in the U.S. Attorney firing scandal has come to light, as well as his subsequent hiring of lawyers as a result. Ethics complaints have been filed against him. It is unclear what ramifications await Domenici, but it does suggest that this previously strong possibility for re-election has undermined his own chances with one very inappropriate phone call. Should he retire (or otherwise not seek re-election), GOP Rep. Heather Wilson would have been the likely front-runner for the GOP nomination to replace him, but she apparently made an inappropriate phone call similar to Domenici's, leaving super-conservative Rep. Steve Pearce as the go-to Republican, a man who is likely too conservative to win statewide in New Mexico. So the NM-GOP's likely choices are a politically damaged Domenici or a too-conservative-for-statewide Steve Pearce. If a prominent Democrat steps up early to challenge Domenici, it may put enough pressure on him to opt for retirement.
UP Idaho's Larry Craig: Since the last RW, voices both liberal and conservative have suggested that Larry Craig is not long for the Senate. Whether the ID-GOP is trying to urge him out or are prepping a primary challenger is unclear, but the rumors are growing.
UP Virginia's John Warner: Before the last RW, J. Warner had publicly gone back-and-forth as to where he was leaning between retirement and a re-election bid. It has appeared that J. Warner would take another term if he didn't have a tough challenge for it. He has even planned a little bit of fundraising. However, former Governor Mark Warner may be more interested in a 2008 Senate bid than previously thought. Also, former Senator George "Macaca" Allen has held a meeting to gauge support for a 2008 Senate bid should J. Warner retire. One wouldn't think that Allen would hold such a meeting unless he had info that the likelihood of a J. Warner retirement was stronger than the 50-50 conventional wisdom.
EVEN Nebraska's Chuck Hagel: Before the last RW post, questions existed as to whether Hagel would run for President, run for Senate re-election, run for both, or retire from politics. Then, Hagel held a big press conference and answered none of those questions. He did say that "he would actively raise money for a Senate re-election bid in 2008." It did come out that Hagel, before he served two terms in the Senate, made it crystal clear that he felt twelve years was enough and that he supported term limits. Does he still support such limits? (Probably not.) However, GOP state attorney general Jon Bruning has already begun putting together an exploratory committee for a Senate bid. Is he just getting a head start in case of a Hagel Senate retirement, or does he enjoy inside info?
EVEN Mississippi's Thad Cochran: Cochran had been publicly undecided on a re-election bid, holding off on a decision until late 2007, as of the last RW. Since then, he has planned some moderately aggressive fundraising, but he has also moved even further back his declared deadline for announcing his 2008 intentions and stated that being in the minority party would make him "less inclined" to run.
DOWN North Carolina's Elizabeth Dole: Her age, health issues, and failure as NRSC Chair had led many to consider her a strong possibility for retirement. Nevertheless, she says she is running for re-election and has begun aggressive fundraising. Also, while polling for her has been pretty weak for her overall, they are polling her as the expected Republican in the race, indicating that the media outlets expect her to run again as well.
