• CT-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons needs to look like one of those allegedly-not-quite-extinct moderate New England Republicans in order to get elected in Connecticut, but he's not doing himself any favors by appearing with Newt Gingrich at the annual Prescott Bush Awards Dinner. With a large Puerto Rican population in Connecticut, Simmons probably doesn't want to be anywhere near Sonia Sotomayor's loudest and most toxic critic. Another problem for Simmons: businessman Tom Foley, the former ambassador to Ireland, made his official entry into the GOP primary field today. Foley, unlike Simmons, has deep pockets he can self-fund with.
• MN-Sen: Sources close to Norm Coleman are suggesting he won't appeal at the federal level if he loses his case with the Minnesota Supreme Court. Republicans still publicly say they'll try to stop any Dem efforts to seat Al Franken until Coleman has conceded or exhausted his appeals. John Cornyn has sent some mixed signals, though, saying it's "entirely" Coleman's decision whether to keep fighting and that he's "amazed that Sen. Coleman's been willing to persevere as long as he has."
• NV-Sen: Wondering why the GOP is having a hard time attracting a challenger to supposedly-vulnerable Harry Reid? Maybe it's because of his deep levels of support among much of the state's Republican establishment. The Reid camp released a list of 60 GOP endorsers, including, most prominently, soon-to-be-ex-First Lady (and former NV-02 candidate) Dawn Gibbons, Reno mayor Bob Cashell, and, in a move guaranteed to nail down the key 18-29 demographic, Wayne Newton.
• NH-Sen: Could it be that the NRSC could actually be stuck running Ovide Lamontagne against Rep. Paul Hodes? Just the very fact that the NRSC is talking to Lamontagne (a businessman whose one claim to fame is losing the 1996 governor's race to Jeanne Shaheen) with an apparently straight face should be a red flag that their top-tier possibilities (ex-Sen. John Sununu, ex-Rep. Charlie Bass) aren't looking likely.
• NY-Sen-B: Joe Biden reportedly had a sit-down earlier this week with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, who may or may not be running in the Senate primary against Kirsten Gillibrand. Presumably the meeting would contain some of the same content as Barack Obama's now-famous phone call to Rep. Steve Israel.
• OH-Sen: If a candidate falls in the woods with no one around, does he make a sound? State Rep. Tyrone Yates has been exploring the Senate race for several months, and apparently found nothing that would help him overcome Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and SoS Jennifer Brunner, as he bowed out of the race.
• NJ-Gov: Rasmussen has the first post-primary poll of the New Jersey governor's race. Chris Christie may have gotten a bit of a brief unity bounce in the wake of his primary victory, as he's up to a 51-38 edge over Jon Corzine now, as opposed to 47-38 last month. There's one spot of 'good' news, as it were, for Corzine: his approval rating is back up to 42%.
• AZ-08: Construction company executive and ex-Marine Jesse Kelly seems to be the establishment GOP's choice to go against Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in 2010. He announced endorsements from three House members: Trent Franks, Duncan Hunter, and Frank Wolf. (Not quite clear how endorsements from Hunter and Wolf help him in Arizona, though.)
• KS-01: State Senator Jim Barnett got into the race for the seat being vacated by Rep. Jerry Moran, who's running for Senate. Barnett may quickly become front-runner, based on his name recognition from being the 2006 GOP gubernatorial candidate (where he lost the state as a whole to Kathleen Sebelius, but won the dark-red 1st). He's up against a more conservative state Senator Tim Huelskamp, and Sam Brownback's former chief of staff, Rob Wasinger. The primary is the whole shooting match in this R+23 district.
• KY-01: After the purchase of "whitfieldforsenate.com" got people's attention yesterday, Rep. Ed Whitfield had to tamp that down, confirming that he's running for re-election in his R+15 House seat.
• MN-06: Even if this goes nowhere, it's great to have a GOPer doing our framing for us... attorney Chris Johnston is publicly mulling a primary challenge to (his words, on his website) "'anti-American' hurling, malaprop-spouting, 'they took me out of context'" Rep. Michele Bachmann. He confirms that he and Bachmann share "strong conservative beliefs;" he just thinks the 6th would prefer someone "who thinks before they speak."
• NH-02: Attorney Ann McLane Kuster is launching an exploratory committee to run for the open seat left behind by Rep. Paul Hodes. St. Rep. John DeJoie is already in the primary field, and they may soon be joined by Katrina Swett.
• NY-03: Dems are scoping out potential candidates in Long Island's NY-03 (which fell to R+4 in the wake of 2008), thinking that even if Rep. Peter King doesn't vacate to run for Senate he's still vulnerable. The biggest fish would be Nassau Co. Exec Tom Suozzi, who seems to have bigger fish to fry (reportedly AG if Andrew Cuomo vacates). The next-biggest fish would Nassau Co. DA Kathleen Rice. Smaller fish listed include Isobel Coleman of the Council of Foreign Relations, and minor league baseball team owner Frank Boulton.
• NH-Legislature: It took a rewrite of a couple sentences that Gov. John Lynch didn't like, but after a few weeks of back-and-forth New Hampshire finally enacted gay marriage. Both chambers passed the amended bill yesterday (clearing the House 198-176) and Lynch signed it into law on the same day.
• MN-Sen: Despite the seemingly increased likelihood that he'd jerk Al Franken around now that he doesn't have to worry about re-election and how impatient Minnesotans feel about the Senate vacancy, Gov. Tim Pawlenty says he'll certify Al Franken as winner of the Senate race if the state Supreme Court directs him to do so. Also, many are interpreting John Cornyn's comments about how the Senate GOP doesn't have the votes to filibuster Sonia Sotomayor, even if they wanted to, as being a tacit admission that Franken would be seated soon.
• NC-Sen: It never quite seemed likely, but Elizabeth Edwards silenced any speculation that she might run for Senate against Richard Burr next year.
• KY-Sen: Here's a new name sniffing out the Kentucky Senate primary. A staffer for Rep. Ed Whitfield from KY-01 just bought both domain names for "whitfieldforsenate.com" and "whitfieldforgovernor.com" (and inexplicably paid $800 for the two names). Maybe SoS Trey Grayson may have some company in the primary if Jim Bunning truly does bail out?
• VA-Gov: Ex-Del. Brian Moran leaked an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner to Political Wire. Lo and behold, it shows Moran in the lead, with 29% to 27% for Creigh Deeds and 26% for Terry McAuliffe. (Meaning that in the last week, each of the three primary candidates have led a poll.) (UPDATE: PPP points out a flaw here: this isn't a topline, but the result from a subsample that's disposed to do well for Moran: people who've participated in Democratic primaries prior to last year's presidential race.)
Fundraising numbers for the three candidates also just came out: McAuliffe is way ahead on the money front, with $1.8 mil raised last quarter and $1.3 mil CoH ($7 mil total). Deeds raised $676K with $521K CoH ($3.8 mil total), and Moran raised $844K with $700 CoH ($4.8 mil total).
• MN-Gov: With T-Paw getting out, a flood of second-tier Republicans has spilled out in search of the nomination. State Sen. David Hann, state Sen. Geoff Michel, state Rep. Marty Seifert, state Rep. Paul Kohls, and former legislator Charlie Weaver are "interested." Former Auditor Pat Anderson is going so far as to say she'll announce in a month or two. Others mentioned include state Rep. Laura Brod, national committee member Brian Sullivan, and former state House speaker and current Labor and Industry Commissioner Steve Sviggum. The Star-Tribune also mentioned former Rep. Jim Ramstad (who'd do well in the general but may be too moderate to survive the nominating convention), state Sen. minority leader David Senjem, and one very big wild card... Norm Coleman, although his dragging-out of the Senate race can't have helped his favorables. One prominent name who apparently isn't interested: Rep. Michele Bachmann.
• MI-Gov: The Republican field in the Michigan governor's race got even more crowded, as Oakland Co. Sheriff Rick Bouchard got in. (Bouchard lost the 2006 Senate race to Debbie Stabenow.) Bouchard's entry was faciliated when his boss, Oakland Co. Exec L. Brooks Patterson, declined to run -- but Bouchard may do exactly what Patterson would have done, which is split the Detroit suburban vote with AG Mike Cox, making it easier for Rep. Pete Hoekstra from the state's west to sneak through.
• CO-04: Ex-Rep. Marilyn Musgrave fired off a rather unhinged-sounding fundraising letter on behalf of her new employers in the culture war, the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List. This may actually work to Rep. Betsy Markey's advantage; she made reference to Musgrave's letter in her own appeal for contributions.
• FL-17: Politics1 has an interesting, if a bit unsavory, rumor coming out of south Florida: 83-year-old former Rep. Carrie Meek may get on the ballot in FL-17, essentially to act as a one-term placeholder for her son, Rep. Kendrick Meek. (If he lost the Senate race, she would re-retire in 2012 and thus let him get his old job back. Or, if Meek won the Senate race, she'd still retire and let someone new take over FL-17.) Meek denied the rumor, though, to National Journal.
• FL-25: Here's a potentially big name to take on Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, who beat Joe Garcia by a small margin in 2008. Miami Mayor Manny Diaz is reportedly taking a look at the race; his name has also been mentioned in connection with the open Lt. Gov. slot.
• NC-11: PPP's Tom Jensen looks at possible Democratic successors in this R+6 district if Rep. Heath Shuler gives up the seat to run for Senate. He cites state Sens. John Snow and Joe Sam Queen as likeliest. (He also links to a great map from Civitas that calculates the PVI for all of North Carolina's state Senate districts.)
• SC-01: Rep. Henry Brown threw a "thank you" party in Myrtle Beach for his supporters, and at least 11 people walked away with the best possible tokens of his gratitude: diarrhea and nausea. State health officials are investigating to see if it was the result of food poisoning or just of the Republican rhetoric. Also, 2008 challenger Linda Ketner, who came close to knocking off Brown as an openly lesbian candidate in a dark-red district, may not be looking to run again. She did a refreshingly honest interview with FireDogLake, maybe a little too refreshing vis-a-vis her future viability, in terms of referring to "the conservative, religious crazy vote" and outing several prominent South Carolina politicians.
• UT-LG: A third generation of Romneys is getting warmed up (in a third state). Mitt Romney's 33-year-old son Josh has been in talks with soon-to-be-Gov. Gary Herbert about the open Lieutenant Governor's position.
• AL-St. Senate: Democrats can still be a downballot force in Alabama, managing to hold a state Senate seat in a deep-red part of rural Alabama north of Mobile. State Rep. Mark Keahey (who's only 28) narrowly defeated Republican former state Rep. Greg Albritton, in a special election triggered by the January death of Democratic Sen. Pat Lindsey. (UPDATE: Actually, it turns out that the margin wasn't so tight. Keahey crushed Albritton by a devastating 58-42 margin.)
• NH-St. House: In another special election, Democrats held a state House seat based in Lebanon, New Hampshire, as fire captain Andy White beat Republican Randy Wagoner. It's Democratic-leaning turf, but the GOP turned this into a proxy battle over gay marriage (White is a vote in favor of it), and out-of-district money enabled Wagoner to outspend White at least 4-to-1.
Americans appear ready to sweep a lot of Democrats into office on November 4. Not only does Barack Obama maintain a solid lead in the popular vote and electoral vote estimates, several Senate races that appeared safe Republican holds a few months ago are now considered tossups.
Polling is harder to come by in House races, but here too there is scattered evidence of a coming Democratic tsunami. Having already lost three special Congressional elections in red districts this year, House Republicans are now scrambling to defend many entrenched incumbents.
In this diary, I hope to convince you of three things:
1. Some Republicans who never saw it coming are going to be out of a job in two weeks.
On a related note,
2. Even the smartest experts cannot always predict which seats offer the best pickup opportunities.
For that reason,
3. Activists should put resources behind many under-funded challengers now, instead of going all in for a handful of Democratic candidates.
Well, Heather Ryan has her first T.V. ad completed. It is a humourous take on Exxon Ed Whitfield's record of serving Big Oil and the Bush Administration which I have named "The Zephyr Hillbilly". It is our 30 sec. spot, and we have a couple of more in the offing.
One thing that has been consistent in the race for Kentucky's First Congressional District is that Ed Whitfield and his supporters can't stand to talk about issues, or anything of substance. Instead of talking about what Heather Ryan wants to bring to the next Congress, or how the candidates feel about Healthcare, Iraq, and the crashing Economy, they seem particularly angry at Heather and want to call her things like crazy, and fat.
The Repubicans running in the Congressional and Senate races in Kentucky face a serious dilemma. Aside from Brett Guthrie every one them were around and voted for the very failed policies that have led to our economic debacle. No matter what their vote on the bailout, every Repubican in the Kentucky delegation holds blame for the failing economy.
With the crashing of the economy, and the up-coming taxpayer bailout of hundreds upon hundreds of billions of dollars, Americans and Kentuckians need to take a hard look at the root causes of the reversal of budget surpluses into TRILLIONS of dollars of national debt. In Kentucky, one need not look past the failed Republican Congressional delegation of the time, many of which are still serving and running for re-election.
Here at Whitfield Trucking, business was getting slow. We couldn't understand why so many Kentuckians who were suffering with high gas prices would object so much to us driving an empty tractor-trailer around the First Congressional District of Kentucky. Do they not own hundreds of thousands of dollars in Exxon and Chevron stock like we do? Why would they object to us getting rich off their pain?
A funny thing happened last night in Paducah. Although Hurricane Ike had not even touched ground in the United States yet, prices at the pump started rising and hitting as high as $4.59 a gallon. This caused a rush on the pumps that hadn't gone up, and resulted in lines all the way out on the road in some places, and even a few fist-fights from consumers desperate to fill their tanks before the prices spiked.
Just down the road from Paducah, Kentucky sits St. John's Catholic Church. Every year, they have an annual picnic with games and political speaking. While not as famous, and a lot tamer than the Fancy Farm Picnic, it is a really good idea for candidates to stop in and work for votes in Western Kentucky.
As many know, we have been facing an uphill battle all along in Kentucky's First Congressional District. Ed Whitfield has huge special interest money, and has the Mitch McConnell machine of Corruption firmly behind him. These people are used to getting their way. They are addicted to, and obsessed with the power, and money that comes with their postions.
It is no secret that Ed Whitfield has something againstchildren. However, even more intense is the hatred that Ed Whitfield holds towards women. Yes, even more shocking than the fact that Whitfield condones discrimination against women, are the views he and his staff apparently hold towards women and children that have been battered.
Well, the political season has gotten pretty hot in Kentucky. With a Senate seat, and four hotly contested House seats here, Democrats here are fired up. Despite what any poll has said to this point, all these races are winnable. We have fielded a surprisingly impressive lineup of candidates and we are ready to fight for them. Meeting some of the delegates, and Jennifer Moore, the KDP chairman has convinced me that our party is ready to fight.
There are many reasons to support Heather Ryan. Heather is a wife, veteran, and citizen of our district who has been active in politics for quite some time. She is educated, compassionate and smart. She represents the ideals Democrats espouse quite nicely. Most of all, she is not afraid to fight the Republicans for what we all believe in.
Exxon Ed Whitfield's Hypocrisy knows no bounds. We have already seen how he and his campaign believe that theft and vandalism is a Christian Value. However, on no issue does Exxon Eddie seem to be more Hypocritical than on the issue of Healthcare.
It is an election year, and Exxon Ed Whitfield has been trying to clean up the stains on his terrible record of representing the First Congressional District of Kentucky. First, we had him bragging in our "impartial" newsrag, the Paducah Sun about voting for the G.I. Bill for the Twenty First Century, when acutally he had voted against Veteran's Benefits three times previous.
Kentucky Republicans live in a fantasy world that puts anything dreamed up by J.R. Tolkien to shame. Where else in this country do you find people who believe that the suppression of Free Speech by theft and vandalism is a "Christian Value? Where else do you find people who are invested in, and profiting from our pain at the pump seeking to lecture all of us on the high price of gas, while voting against a windfall tax on Big Oil? Indeed, where else will you find a Congressman who refuses to return the blood money of a convicted terrorist seek to lecture the rest of us on the "War on Terror"?
For someone that talks so tough on Terror, Ed Whitfield sure doesn't care much about it when money is involved. We have already seen how Ed Whitfield won't let suspected terrorist ties, and criminal activity get in the way of his investments, and now we get another look inside the twisted, hypocritical world of this Kentucky Republican.
The hypocrisy of the modern Republican Party never ceases to amaze me. The Republican Party leadership is, and always will be the party of the mighty Greenback. Despite this they try to lecture all of us on things like moral values, and being tough on terrorists. However, if these things ever interrupt their endless quest for profits, they are easily forgotten if those profits are threatened.
Here in Kentucky, we are saddled with two of the worst of the lot in Republican "leadership". While Mitch McConnell needs no introduction, a lot of national Democrats don't know about my Congressman, Exxon Ed Whitfield, who is best known for protecting the profits of Big Oil. It seems these two got together this week to plot the demise of Democrat Heather Ryan.
