Illinois Democratic Gerrymander 12-6 - Updated

by: Madigoon

Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 12:40 AM EDT

1.) Michael Madigan is in charge and he will look out for his interests first.  He also will never do a dummymander.

2.) The Democratic incumbents also have input and their interests will be considered.  None of them will want their district lines to change much and all want their Democratic primary bases to be kept intact.  They also don't want to be thrown from safe seats to possibly competitive ones.

3.) African Americans will insist on maintaining their three black majority districts, no matter how much population they have lost in the city.  The Hispanics will want at least one - two may be forced by the courts - but Madigan and his allies will likely push for one Hispanic district to maintain Lipinski's seat.  Also, we have seen in the City of Chicago that Hispanic majority seats often go to white incumbents who control the Democratic machine.  Alderman Ed Burke's 14th ward is 88% Hispanic, Madigan's 13th ward is 72% Hispanic and just elected somebody named "Marty Quinn" to be Alderman.  

4.) Madigan will go after Freshman GOP before those with more seniority.  Not only are they easier targets, but having seniority on both sides of the aisle is good for Illinois.

Below is each new district with data and analysis.  I have calculated the results from the 2010 Senate race (Kirk v. Giannoulias) and from the 2004 Presidential race (Bush v. Kerry - I know, old).  I used the 2010 Senate race rather than the Governor's race because it is on the Federal level, and to use data against moderate Republican.  I did not calculate data from the 2008 election, because Obama's landslide was far too big  and unevenly distributed in Illinois (I feel Chicagoland was much more skewed than Downstate).  The 2010 numbers are exact (to the precinct) except for Tazewell, Marion, Moultrie, and Menard Counties, which I allocated votes by ratio of population in each district.  The same goes for 2004 numbers, except I had to extrapolate the precinct data for Lake and Will counties from 2010 data.

For now, here are three tables with election data, racial population data, and VAP data.  I will add more analysis in the next few days.

District  Kirk   Alexi    Bush   Kerry    PVI
1        24.80% 75.20% 23.00% 77.00% D+30
2        25.26% 74.74% 26.39% 73.61% D+28
3        48.14% 51.86% 44.25% 55.75% D+8
4        26.57% 73.43% 26.90% 73.10% D+28
5        47.72% 52.28% 41.53% 58.47% D+10
6        63.33% 36.67% 57.66% 42.34% R+6
7        18.61% 81.39% 15.81% 84.19% D+37
8        53.71% 46.29% 46.66% 53.34% D+4
9        47.77% 52.23% 39.12% 60.88% D+11
10       47.75% 52.25% 39.70% 60.30% D+11
11       68.75% 31.25% 60.55% 39.45% R+10
12       53.24% 46.76% 47.02% 52.98% D+4
13       49.12% 50.88% 45.12% 54.88% D+7
14       64.94% 35.06% 59.55% 40.45% R+8
15       68.33% 31.67% 59.68% 40.32% R+10
16       67.03% 32.97% 57.86% 42.14% R+8
17       56.61% 43.39% 46.84% 53.16% D+3
18       68.31% 31.69% 60.39% 39.61% R+10

ALL
District  White  Black  Hispanic  Asian
1        35.5%   52.7%   8.2%   2.0%
2        31.4%   52.8%   13.4%   0.8%
3        59.5%   6.1%   27.7%   5.4%
4        18.7%   4.1%   73.3%   2.9%
5        65.1%   2.2%   24.4%   6.7%
6        75.4%   3.7%   8.8%   10.3%
7        27.6%   54.5%   12.2%   4.1%
8        48.6%   8.7%   31.5%   9.1%
9        67.4%   7.8%   10.6%   12.0%
10       72.2%   3.4%   10.9%   11.5%
11       92.7%   3.2%   2.0%   0.8%
12       77.5%   16.6%   2.8%   1.1%
13       53.0%   12.7%   27.3%   5.0%
14       82.5%   1.6%   11.4%   3.2%
15       85.4%   6.8%   3.1%   2.9%
16       88.6%   2.6%   6.3%   1.1%
17       77.9%   12.4%   5.8%   1.5%
18       86.7%   5.4%   4.8%   1.6%

VAP
District  White  Black  Hispanic  Asian
1        38.0%   51.7%   6.9%   2.2%
2        34.5%   51.8%   11.7%   0.8%
3        64.0%   5.9%   23.5%   5.7%
4        23.2%   4.1%   68.3%   3.4%
5        69.1%   2.0%   20.9%   6.8%
6        77.7%   3.5%   7.5%   10.2%
7        31.1%   51.8%   11.0%   4.8%
8        54.1%   8.1%   26.9%   9.4%
9        69.2%   7.8%   9.3%   12.1%
10       74.7%   3.3%   9.3%   11.2%
11       93.5%   3.2%   1.7%   0.8%
12       80.0%   15.3%   2.4%   1.1%
13       58.3%   12.1%   23.4%   5.0%
14       85.3%   1.4%   9.4%   3.1%
15       86.7%   6.2%   2.7%   3.2%
16       90.8%   2.4%   4.9%   1.1%
17       81.7%   10.8%   4.6%   1.5%
18       88.7%   5.1%   3.8%   1.5%

Hyper-partisan Democratic Texas Gerrymander

by: TXMichael

Sun Jan 16, 2011 at 11:39 PM EST

The two crowning achievements of this map are the three Democrats out of Travis County (City of Austin), which is something I posted earlier and worked to further perfect, and six Democrats out of Harris County (City of Houston).  

Every Republican seat is a major vote sink, only 4 of the 14 GOP seats are less than 70% McCain.  Which means there are 10 seats that are R+24 or higher including what would be the most Republican district in the country at R+30.

For the sake of classifying districts 59% Obama and higher are labeled as Safe D, 56-58% is Likely D and <56% is Lean D.  There is only one district that is less than 56% Obama than isn't a GOP vote sink.

Overall this is a 22-14 Democratic Map with one district that could be won by the GOP in a wave year.  So I think the worst case scenario for the Dems would be 21-15

District 13
Obama 23%
McCain 76%
69% White, 6% Black, 22% Hispanic

The most Republican district in the state and probably the most conservative in the country.  Interestingly enough despite being a R+30 district it is 22% Hispanic.

Safe R

District 17
Obama 26%
McCain 73%
67% White, 5% Black, 26% Hispanic

A R+27 West Texas District that is 26% Hispanic.  Includes the cities of Midland, Odessa and San Angelo.

Safe R

District 19
Obama 27%
McCain 72%
67% White, 6% Black, 25% Hispanic

This is a third West Texas district that is over 20% Hispanic.  That definitely doesn't help in this district.  Includes the cities of Abilene and Lubbock

Safe R

District 4
Obama 31%
McCain 68%
81% White, 8% Black, 8% Hispanic

North East Texas and part of Collin County

Safe R

District 5
Obama 28%
McCain 71%
76% White, 13% Black, 9% Hispanic

Tyler-Longview based district for Louie Gohmert.  Hey we got to keep the most entertaining Republicans right!

Safe R

District 8
Obama 26%
McCain 73%
81% White, 4% Black, 11% Hispanic

Includes most of the very fast growing Montgomery County.

Safe R

District 11
Obama 28%
McCain 71%
74% White, 8% Black, 14% Hispanic

This is my favorite GOP vote sink based on unattractiveness.  It gets all the Republican vote that would have ended up jeporadizing district 10, 31 and 9 if no counties were split.

Safe R

District 14
Obama 29%
McCain 70%
73% White, 6% Black, 17% Hispanic

Another GOP vote sink near Houston.  

Safe R

District 25
Obama 27%
McCain 72%
78% White, 13% Black, 8% Hispanic

East Texas GOP district.  

District 35
Obama 26%
McCain 73%
78% White, 6% Black, 11% Hispanic

Like the rest of the GOP districts, another vote sink carefully drawn.

District 16
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
24% White, 3% Black, 70% Hispanic

Most of El Paso but I also used 16 to grab some of the more Republican counties from district 23 in order to help make 23 more Democratic.

Safe D

District 23
Obama 55%
McCain 44%
27% White, 2% Black, 69% Hispanic

Shedding some of the more Republican counties and picking up part of Southern El Paso shifts this district 4 points towards the Democrats compared to it's previous 51% Obama/48% McCain breakdown.  In 2010 Conseco beat Rodriguiz by 5 points.

Lean D

District 36
Obama 29%
McCain 70%
80% White, 2% Black, 16 Hispanic

Contains a decent amount of Lamar Smiths current district including the conservative parts of North Bexar County.

Safe R  

District 15
59% Obama
40% McCain
19% White, 1% Black, 78% Hispanic

Most of McAllen and the most Republican parts of Corpus Christi are here.  

Safe D

District 27
Obama 58%
McCain 41%
22% White, 2% Black, 74% Hispanic

Solomon Ortiz's loss to Blake Farenthold was definitely a sign of a GOP wave.  The old district 27 was 53%/46%.  I would want to rate this district Safe D since Farenthold won by 1 point and the shift by 5 probably would have safed Ortiz, but I'd be breaking break my own rules.

Likely D

District 28
Obama 59%
McCain 41%
19% White, 3% Black, 76% Hispanic

This district shifts a few more points Democratic from his current 56%/43% district.  It was difficult to get a good image capture of this district since it is drawn like it is.

Safe D

District 20
Obama 58%
McCain 41%
30% White, 5% Black, 61% Hispanic

I tried so hard to get two 59% Obama districts in San Antonio and just couldn't do it.  58% is really close and as much as I want to label this a safe D district I can't since my intro says 59% will be considered a safe D district.

Likely D

District 21
Obama 58%
McCain 41%
33% White, 10% Black, 54% Hispanic

Eastern San Antonio and southern Bexar county.  

Likely D

I would have zoomed in more but that would have cut off several of the districts originating from Houston.

District 2
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
36% White, 26% Black, 33% Hispanic

Very Democratic part of North Houston and the Democratic parts of Huntsville in East Texas

Safe D

District 7
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
35% White, 24% Black, 30% Hispanic, 11% Asian

District 9
Obama 59%
McCain 41%
38% White, 27% Black, 23% Hispanic, 12% Asian

Stretches from Galveston up into Brazos County, most of the Democratic vote is in Fort Bend.  Interesting note is this district is 12% Asian

Safe D

District 18
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
39% White, 25% Black, 28% Hispanic

South and West Houston district.

Safe D

District 22
Obama 60%
McCain 40%
39% White, 32% Black, 26% Hispanic

The most Democratic district partially in Houston also includes Beaumont, Port Arthur, Hudson and Nacodoches.  

Safe D

District 29
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
29% White, 10% Black, 57% Hispanic

A good piece of Green's current district is in the new 29, he should have no problem winning here.

Safe D

Like Houston I had to take this photo to account for the sprawly districts

District 10
Obama 60%
McCain 39%
52% White, 6% Black, 38% Hispanic

This district includes most of Lloyd Doggetts current district in South Austin and it sort of stretches all the way down into South Texas.  

Safe D

District 31
Obama 58%
McCain 40%
47% White, 24% Black, 25% Hispanic

Squeezing a third Democratic district out of Travis County was great.  This district includes parts of Travis County, Waco, Killeen, Temple, College Station

Likely D

District 33
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
67% White, 7% Black, 19% Hispanic

Most of Austin is in this district including Round Rock.

Safe D

District 3
Obama 60%
McCain 38%
39% White, 18% Black, 38% Hispanic

The most Democratic district in the state with Obama winning by a 22 point margin.  It loops around the very conservative Park Cities and Preston Hollow area of Dallas County

District 12
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
45% White, 21% Black, 29% Hispanic

Contains much of the City of Fort Worth.  I'd like to see Lon Burnam run in this one.  He's a very liberal State Representative in Fort Worth.

Safe D

District 24
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
53% White, 18% Black, 21% Hispanic

Contains the Democratic parts of Arlington in Tarrant County and Southwest Dallas County.   The college town Denton is also roped into the district.

Safe D

District 30
Obama 60%
McCain 39%
40% White, 19% Black, 35% Hispanic

Mostly West Dallas including southern parts of the city and Democratic pieces of Collin/Denton County

Safe D

District 32
Obama 60%
McCain 39%
45% White, 28% Black, 21% Hispanic

South Dallas and some eastern Dallas suburbs including Garland.  I think Eddie-Bernice Johnson would run in this one.

Safe D

Well it happen?  No, but a Democrat can dream :)

Democratic Gerrymander of Austin - GOP smackdown

by: TXMichael

Tue Dec 28, 2010 at 6:49 PM EST

Time for the GOP's turn to cry over a gerrymander of Austin!

CD-10
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
White 55% Black 6% Hispanic 35%

Since Doggett's District has grown by over 120,000 people in the past 10 years it has been easy to make it more compact by removing several of the conservative counties, some of Austin was also removed to make room for the other districts.  Austin comprises the majority of the population, but San Marcos and Seguin are also in the district.  The PVI remains the same as Doggett's old district.  If he can win with an 8 point margin in one of the worst years for Democrats in decades this new district should be no problem.  

Safe Democrat

CD-33
Obama 60%
McCain 39%
White 65% Black 8% Hispanic 20%

Clearly most of Austin is in this new district.  It is 2 points more Democratic than Doggett's district and includes Round Rock and Georgetown in addition to the majority of Austin.  Again the massive population growth in Austin made this district possible.  Not much else to say on this one.

Safe Democrat

CD-31
Obama 56%
McCain 43%
White 52% Black 21% Hispanic 21%

As if two safe Democratic districts weren't bad enough a third district including parts of Austin, Waco, Killeen/Temple and College Station/Bryan.  This is the crown jewel of this gerrymander.  This district is beautifully drawn for one reason, to get the GOP angry. I couldn't quite make this district Democratic enough to be a safe Democratic Seat, but it is definitely winnable, toss-up at worst and lean D at best.

Lean D/Toss-Up

Texas dem redistricting

by: Warning_Crazy

Wed Dec 01, 2010 at 7:13 PM EST

http://img.photobucket.com/alb...
http://img.photobucket.com/alb...

El Paso: http://img.photobucket.com/alb...

District 1 (Blue) 54 Obama 66 Hispanic
El Paso and Odessa
Lean/Likely D

District 2 (Green) 57 O 72 H
El Paso and tentacles
Likely D

District 3 (Purple) 56 O 78 H
Mexican Border and some other counties
Likely D

District 4 (Red) 55 0 74 H
Mexican Border and it snakes up
Lean/Likely D

District 5 (Yellow) 55 0 72 H
Mexican Border and Corpus Christi
Likely D

District 6 (Teal) 34 O 59 White
Counties that border the Gulf of Mexico and going inward.
Safe R

San Antonio: http://img.photobucket.com/alb...

District 7 (Gray) 55 O 58 H
Southern San Antonio and surrounding areas
Likely D

District 8 (Lilac Purple) 54 O 54 H
Middle of San Antonio and some other parts of Bexar county.
Lean/Likely D

District 9 (Sky Blue) 33 O 69 W
Northern San Antonio and its conservative suburbs and exurbs.
Safe R

Austin: http://img.photobucket.com/alb...

District 10 (Bright Pink) 55 O 57 W
Austin and its suburbs
Likely D

District 11 (Lime Green) 54 O 63 W
Austin
Lean/Likely D

District 12 (Periwinkle) 53 O 67 W
Austin and Killeen
Lean D

District 13 (Burt Sienna) 31 O 74 W
Waco, Temple and empty spaces
Safe R

District 14 (Gold) 25 O 66 W
A lot of space and part of lubbock
Safe R

District 15 (Orange) 25 O 66 W
More Nothing.
Safe R

Fort Worth: http://img.photobucket.com/alb...

District 16 (Kelly Green) 52 O 51 W
Surprisingly Conservative Fort Worth
Toss-Up

District 17 (Navy Blue) 30 O 84 W
Suburbs of Fort Worth
Safe R

Dallas: http://img.photobucket.com/alb...

District 18 (Golden Yellow) 59 O, 30 Black 19 Hispanic 5 Asian
Dallas
Safe D

District 19 (Puke Green) 54 O, 22 Black 27 Hispanic 2 Asian
Dallas and a few southward counties
Likely D

District 20 (Rose) 55 O, 39 Hispanic 14 Black 6 Asian
Dallas and Irving
Likely D

District 21 (Blood Red) 50 O, 54 W
Dallas  and surrounding areas
Toss-Up

District 22 (Poo Brown) 39 O 72 W
North of Dallas and FW
Safe R (Winnable with a great candidate in a good year or an incumbent in an ok one, but tilts very r)

District 23 (Robin's Egg Blue) 35 O 75 W
North of FW to OK border
Safe R

District 24 (Dark Purple) 29 O 72 W
Wraps Around 19, 13 to the end of 11
Safe R

District 25 (Salmon)  35 O, 79 W
North Of Dallas
Safe R

District 26 (Dark Gray) 33 O, 77 W
Between OK Border and 24
Safe R

District 27 (Seafoam Green)31 O 72 W
Along the LA Border
Safe R

Houston: http://img.photobucket.com/alb...
Note: I made a small error here in the large map. It is fixed in the numbers and in the close--up of houston (part of the district didn't connect)

District 28 (Really Light Purple) 58 O  28 Black 13 Asian 26 Hispanic
Southwest Houston
Safe D

District 29 (Sage Green) 33 O 73 W
Northeast of Houston
Safe R

District 30 (Pinkish-Red near houston) 33 O 70 W
Wraps Around Houston
Safe R

District 31 (Pale Yellow) 39 O, 61 W
South of Houston
Safe R (See District 22)

District 32 (Bright Red) 37 O, 66 W
Wraps even closer around Houston then does 30
Safe R

District 33 (Denim Blue) 56 O, 24 B 7 A 28 H
Houston
Likely D

District 34 (Green in Houston) 51 O, 12 B 6 A 34 H
Houston
Toss-up

District 35 (Purple in Houston) 53 O, 16 B 3 A  43 H
North Houston
Lean D

District 36 (Orange in Houston) 62 O, 26 B 42 H
Southeast Houston riding up to Northwest Houston
Safe D

What I think makes this most effective is that the Democratic districts will only get more liberal over the Decade, cementing the safety of Incumbents and helping unseat any republicans who manage to pull an upset or win a toss-up.

Please reply, this took a while :)
And a big thank you for my girlfriend for help with the names of colors (You can tell which parts she left for, lol)

Good news for Texas Democrats

by: TXMichael

Thu Feb 25, 2010 at 10:28 PM EST

Kay Bailey Hutchinson
1.1M raised
8M spent
2.3M Cash on Hand

Rick Perry
850K raised
8.8M spent
2.5M CoH

Debra Medina
450K raised
228k spent
291K CoH

Bill White
2.2M raised
2.7M spent
5.4M CoH

Farouk Shami
1.1M raised
5M spent
1M CoH

Thanks to the BurntOrangeReport for the numbers
http://www.burntorangereport.c...

Analyzing Swing States: Pennsylvania, Part 5

by: Inoljt

Sun Jan 10, 2010 at 11:50 AM EST

Pennsyltucky

Outside the Pittsburgh and the Philadelphia metropolis, Pennsylvania is a very different place. Political analysts often label this area "the T," while others call it Pennsyltucky.

Popular culture mythologizes Pennsyltucky as red-neck capital - a rural region dominated by NASCAR-loving red-necks. Politically, James Carville compared Pennsyltucky to Alabama without the blacks.

In fact, this stereotype is inaccurate on two accounts. Firstly, Pennsyltucky contains far more than so-called rural red-necks; most of its counties are fairly populated (they are far more densely peopled than, say, rural Arkansas). Secondly, many of these supposedly NASCAR-loving red-necks also belong to the local union and vote Democratic on economic issues. The majority may support Republicans, but that majority certainly is below the 88% of Alabama whites that voted for John McCain.

Nevertheless, the "T" does constitute the Republican base in Pennsylvania. Former president George W. Bush pulled 48.42% of the state's vote in 2004, and he had to get those votes somewhere.

More below.

Analyzing Swing States: Pennsylvania, Part 4

by: Inoljt

Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 8:49 PM EST

Pennsylvania's southwest has much in common with West Virginia and Southeast Ohio, the northern end of Appalachia. Electoral change in the region is best understood by grouping these three areas together as a whole.

Socially conservative (the region is famously supportive of the NRA) but economically liberal, the industrial southwest voters typify white working-class Democrats. These voters can be found in unexpected places: Catholics in Rhode Island and Massachusetts, loggers along the Washington coast, rust-belt workers in Duluth, Minnesota and Buffalo, New York.

It was President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal that brought the working-class to the Democratic Party; before his time, the party constituted a regional force confined mainly to the South. In Pennsylvania, a Republican stronghold that had voted for President Herbert Hoover, Mr. Roosevelt laid the foundations for a lasting Democratic coalition.

For decades, voters in southwest Pennsylvania constituted this coalition's foundation. Take, for instance, Democratic nominee Walter Mondale:

In 1984, the industrial southwest, badly hurting from a receding recession, cast a strong ballot for Mr. Mondale. It did so again for Governor Mike Dukakis, and twice for President Bill Clinton.

Ironically, it was during the presidency of Mr. Clinton - a man much liked by Appalachia - that the Democrats became regarded as the party of the coasts and the elite. Ever since his time, Pennsylvania's industrial southwest has been in a bad way for Democrats.

More below.

IL-10: Dan Seals will run in 2010

by: blueandwhite31

Tue Jul 21, 2009 at 1:26 PM EDT

With Kirk running for Senate, it's not too surprising that Seals decided to run again.  But whether his previous elections will give him a leg up in the race will be an interesting development to find out

Here is an article from Lynn Sweet of the Chicago Sun-Times:

http://blogs.suntimes.com/swee...

MI-09: Mission Not Accomplished - Caring for Our Veterans

by: Gary Peters

Fri May 02, 2008 at 1:01 PM EDT

Crossposted from Michigan Liberal

Friends,

First, I’d like to begin by thanking all of you for your support. Because of contributions from people like you, our campaign has just been ranked in CQ’s list of the top ten best funded challengers in the country. The voters in Michigan’s 9th Congressional district are tired of the failed leadership they’ve gotten from my opponent, Congressman Joe Knollenberg, for the past sixteen years, and they’re eager for a real change in Washington.

As a former Lt. Commander in the Navy, I wanted to take a moment to write to you this week as we pass the fifth anniversary of one of the most shameful moments in recent American history. On May 1st, 2003, President George W. Bush landed on the USS Abraham Lincoln, in front of the now-infamous “Mission Accomplished” banner and said these words: “My fellow Americans, major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed.”

More after the break. 

PA-05: McCracken for Congress -- Progress Report -- 4/28/08

by: vmo1701

Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 1:12 PM EDT

From a personal standpoint, I learned that in politics, the best thing you can do is plan your strategy and stay the course.  You have to be honest with the people, explain where you stand on the issues important to the people you want to represent and trust their instincts when they go to the polls.