• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: A new LA Times/USC poll (conducted by GQR and POS) finds a dead heat in the GOP Senate primary: conservative Assemblyman Chuck DeVore and vapid ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina are deadlocked at 27 each (despite the fact that DeVore is almost entirely unknown, with favorables of 6/4 -- the deal is that Fiorina is, other than Ahnold, the state's only political figure with negative favorables, at 9/12). They also looked at the GOP field in the governor's race and find ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman leading the field at 35, followed by ex-Rep. Tom Campbell at 27 and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner at 10. No general election matchups, but probably the most disspiriting number of all is that a whopping 80% of all Californians think the state's best days are behind it.
• FL-Sen: This seemed already pretty well established when they ran an anti-Crist ad last week, but it was made official today: the Club for Growth endorsed Marco Rubio in his primary challenge to Charlie Crist. Mmmmmm... cat fud.
• IL-Sen: State treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, whose easy path to the nomination seems to have gotten at least something of an obstacle in its way with the candidacy of former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman, got a key endorsement: Rep. Luis Gutierrez. Giannoulias now has the endorsement of four of the state's House Dems.
• KS-Sen: Also on the endorsement front, Rep. Jerry Moran got one today in the Kansas Senate GOP primary from Arizona's Rep. Jeff Flake. Kind of odd, as Flake is one of the most conservative House members and Moran is the 'moderate' option in the race, but Flake is more on the libertarian side of things rather than a theocon.
• MA-Sen: Finally, something is happening in the sleepy Massachusetts Senate special election Democratic primary. Rep. Michael Capuano hit AG Martha Coakley from the left, attacking her for support for the death penalty, and the PATRIOT Act (Capuano was one of the few to vote against it). And now Coakley is saying she would have voted against the entire health care bill because of the Stupak poison pill, for which Capuano is now attacking her from the right (or at least the pragmatic).
• MT-Sen: Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg pushed back a bit against rumors last week that he was gearing up to run for Senate against Jon Tester in 2012, saying he had no "immediate" plans to run. Rehberg didn't categorically rule it out, though.
• NH-Sen: He's been acting like a candidate all year, but Ovide Lamontagne made it official: he's running for the GOP Senate nomination in New Hampshire. Lamontagne, a lawyer who defeated the establishment candidate in the GOP gubernatorial primary in 1996 (and went onto get demolished in the general), is probably the highest-profile primary challenger to establishment choice ex-AG Kelly Ayotte.
• NY-Sen-B: In case it wasn't clear that ex-Gov. George Pataki is interesting in running for President, not Senator, he's making another appearance in Iowa tomorrow, addressing the Scott County GOP Ronald Reagan Dinner in Davenport.
• PA-Sen: Here's a blast from the past, as one Arlen Specter opponent passed the torch to another. Lynn Yeakel, who lost the 1992 Senate race to Specter by only 3% amidst the media-designated "Year of the Woman," threw her support to Rep. Joe Sestak in the Democratic Senate primary on Friday.
• NV-Gov: Las Vegas's colorful Democratic mayor Oscar Goodman is still mulling over whether to get involved in the gubernatorial race (and sounding pretty lukewarm about it), but he says if he does it, it'll be as an independent and not as a Democrat, setting up a confusing anything-can-happen three-way in yet another state.
• VA-Gov: Here's a guy to add to the top of the "Do Not Hire" list right next to Bob Shrum: pollster David Petts, who it turns out is largely responsible for the Creigh Deeds strategy of going nonstop negative against Bob McDonnell, focusing on independents, and distancing himself from Barack Obama.
• IL-07: It was decisionmaking day for Rep. Danny Davis (who had previously signed up for both his House seat and Cook Co. Board President, but had to withdraw one filing today), and it's a bit of a surprise: he's running for re-election to the House. He had apparently become worried about the possibility of splitting votes with multiple other African-Americans in the race, so he heads back to his nice safe seat in the House. (The question will now be how many of the prominent local politicos who filed to run for the open seat primary now drop out.)
• IL-10: Democratic State Rep. Julie Hamos, who netted a big cash haul last quarter, is the first to hit the airwaves for the fast-approaching House primary against Dan Seals. She's running a TV spot touting her stand on health care.
• LA-02: So I guess the future isn't Cao, anymore? Rep. Joe Cao has drawn a lot of heat for his aisle-crossing on health care, but it doesn't look like he'll suffer any meaningful consequences from leadership, and he's even pushing back against Michael Steele's comments about "coming after" moderate rank-breakers, in understated fashion, saying "He has the right to come after those members who do not conform to party lines, but I would hope that he would work with us in order to adjust to the needs of the district and to hold a seat that the Republican party would need." Also, Cao has picked up an unusual ally: Alaska's Rep. Don Young is defending Cao's vote and even stood watch over Cao as he cast his vote, fending off the horde of GOP arm-twisters.
• NY-23: One of the lingering questions from last week: what the heck happened to all those Doug Hoffman voters that the polls showed? Mark Blumenthal assesses that most voters simply were in flux over that last weekend of polling as two separate events scrambled the status quo, and only made up their mind shortly before voting -- and that, in the end, Scozzafava voters disliked Hoffman more than they disliked Owens.
• PA-11: Hazleton mayor and narrow 2008 loser Lou Barletta is still trying to decide on a rematch with Rep. Paul Kanjorski. He's set a timeline for a late November decision.
• CA-LG: Moderate Republican state Senator Abel Maldonado seems to have the inside track on getting appointed as California's new Lt. Governor (left vacant by John Garamendi's election to the House), according to rumormongers. Maldonado seems the likeliest because he's about the only Republican who can clear the Democratic-controlled legislature, and Dems like the idea because he'd leave behind a Dem-leaning Senate district on the central coast that would be a good pickup target in a special election. There's also one other GOP-held vacancy coming up in the state Senate (SD-37, a traditionally Republican area in the Inland Empire but one where Obama won), vacated by John Benoit (who became a Riverside Co. Commissioner). Democratic Palm Springs school board member Justin Blake is already running there (along with possibly three different Republican Assemblymen), so there may be two good opportunities for Dems to get closer to the magic 2/3s mark in the Senate.
• NY-St. Ass.: As the orgy of own-eating continues, the rest of the Assembly's GOP leadership is considering stripping Dede Scozzafava of her status as minority leader pro tem (in retribution for her Bill Owens endorsement). If they do, start counting down the days until she switches parties.
• TX-St. House: Hopes still persist that the Dems can flip the Texas state House in 2010, where they were down only 76-74, but that got pushed back to 77-73 last week when long-time Democrat Chuck Hopson, representing a very conservative rural area in NE Texas, switched to the Republicans. Hopson still might not be able to save his butt; a GOP primary challenger, Michael Banks, already jumped in for 2010.
• HCR Vote: The AFSCME and HCAN are running "thank you" ads in 20 different districts for vulnerable Dems who voted for health care reform.
• Parties: I suppose it was only a matter of time before some clever wingnut figured this out. A conservative Orlando lawyer registered an official "Tea Party" with the secretary of state, making it one of 32 minor parties recognized in Florida.
• Polling: PPP wants your help! They're asking for polling suggestions in their blog comments, and also have a poll up on where to go next (Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, or Ohio?).
• CO-Sen: Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton is set to launch her bid for the GOP nomination for the Senate today; however, not every prominent Colorado Republican is on board. Ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo lit into her, saying she's "not ready for prime time" and that he would have less of a problem with her if she'd worked the regular behind-the-scene channels in preparing for the race instead of parachuting in at the last minute, apparently at the urging of family friend John McCain. Those on the left, however, are casting a dark eye toward her lobbying past: she used be the head of government relations for a for-profit health care lobbying shop.
• KS-Sen: The GOP primary in Kansas is commonly understood to be an establishment/movement duel between Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt. However, the endorsements in the race are scrambling that a bit, as South Carolina's Jim DeMint, maybe the nuttiest guy in the Senate, has endorsed Moran (the 'moderate' in the race, who surprisingly also got Tom Coburn's endorsement this spring). The somewhat more mainstream figures of John McCain and Richard Burr will also headline Moran fundraisers in DC.
• NH-Sen: Instead of linking to that Populus poll (with a bizarre sample that's way off state party composition) that shows Rep. Paul Hodes losing 54-39 to a generic Republican, I'll just direct you to Dean Barker's authoritative takedown of the poll and of Populus in general.
• NY-Sen-B: As suspected, that Rudy Giuliani-for-Senate thing that happened yesterday was just cloud talk. Via right-hand-man Tony Carbonetti, the word is that Giuliani doesn't see himself as a Senator, and only belongs in chief executive positions instead.
• CA-Gov: Here's about as big an endorsement as SF mayor Gavin Newsom could have hoped for in his bid for California Governor, where he has been sinking into underdog status in the Dem primary against AG Jerry Brown. Bill Clinton will appear at an Oct. 5 event for Newsom. (Payback for Brown staying around in the 1992 presidential primary after it had been sorted out?) The popularity of the Clinton brand, especially among Latinos, may give Newsom a boost among the state's Latinos, who haven't shown much interest in Newsom yet.
• NJ-Gov: PPP, like most pollsters, shows a narrowing edge for Chris Christie in New Jersey but Jon Corzine still standing at the bottom of a hole. Christie leads Corzine 44-35 (improved from 50-36 last month), with independent Chris Daggett pulling in his strongest performance in any poll yet, at 13%. Corzine just isn't gaining, but Christie seems to be leaking votes to Daggett, suggesting there are a lot of Dems and Dem-leaning indies who hate Corzine but can't bring themselves to vote for a Republican (Corzine is polling at only 64% among Democrats). Also similar to other pollsters, there seems to be a big enthusiasm gap at work on the Dem side: among those who fit into PPP's likely voter screen, Barack Obama won only 48-46 in 2008 (despite his actual 15-pt edge last year).
• VA-Gov: This bodes ill for Creigh Deeds: one of his electability assets was that he was the most gun-friendly of the Democratic candidates. However, the National Rifle Association -- who, in the 2005 Attorney General's race endorsed Deeds over Bob McDonnell -- turned around and endorsed McDonnell over Deeds in the Governor's race.
• IL-10: State Rep. Julie Hamos got a key endorsement in her primary fight against 06/08 nominee Dan Seals, from EMILY's List. That gives her a national fundraising profile that may help counteract Seals' netroots backing.
• NH-02: It seems like there has been an endless supply of "Charlie Bass is weighing his options" stories out of New Hampshire, but the ex-Rep. now says he's "leaning toward" a run to get back his old seat. However, the moderate Bass would first have to survive a primary against conservative radio blabber Jennifer Horn, who was the 2008 candidate against Rep. Paul Hodes and has said she's back for another try.
• PA-03: John Onorato made it official: he'll be running against freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper. He's currently general counsel for the Manufacturer and Business Association, but he used to be Erie County Solicitor, an elected office with a constituency that makes up almost half of the district.
• SC-04: I might as well just start the "Bob Inglis Deathwatch" series today. The South Carolina Republican, who used to be one of the most conservative House members but has been sounding increasingly moderate (and sick of Republican hypocrisy) lately, Twittered a suggestion for neighbor Joe Wilson to apologize on the House floor for his outburst. This is the same Inglis who voted for TARP and against the Iraq Surge, and who told town hall screamers to turn off the Glenn Beck; he faces several serious primary challengers in this mega-evangelical R+15 district.
• VA-05: Cordel Faulk, the former spokesperson for Larry Sabato's Univ. of Virginia Center for Politics, said that he won't run for the GOP nod to oppose Tom Perriello after all. Still no top-tier (or even second or third-tier) GOP candidate in this district that presents, on paper, one of their best pickup opportunities.
• VA-07: A local real estate developer, Charles Diradour, has announced that he'll run as a Democrat against Republican whip Eric Cantor in Richmond's suburbs. He'll need to bring a lot of developer money to the table if he's going to have a chance at Cantor, the House Republicans' biggest fundraiser, in this R+9 district.
• CfG: The Club for Growth is havnig a busy day. They just announced endorsements in the area where they can do the least harm, in open-seat GOP primaries in super-red districts. They endorsed state Sen. Tim Huelskamp in KS-01, and state Rep. Tom Graves in GA-09. Interestingly, they're also interviewing both Rand Paul and Trey Grayson to see if they want to get involved in the Kentucky primary.
• NYC: It's primary election day for New York City's elective offices, and the final SurveyUSA poll (sampled the 11th through the 13th) is out today. In the mayor's race, Comptroller William Thompson, at 46%, seems clear of the 40% mark that necessitates a runoff. We're seeing momentum in two different directions below that, though. Former PA Mark Green is losing steam in the Public Advocate's race, down to 33%, making a runoff likely against city councilor Bill DeBlasio (who's at 23%). Meanwhile, city councilor John Liu is making a break for the 40% line; he's at 37%, while David Yassky and Melinda Katz are fighting for 2nd (at 22% and 21% respectively).
State Rep. Beth Coulson, the most moderate -- and therefore, strongest -- of the potential Republican nominees to defend the seat of Mark Kirk, will announce next week that she's running for Congress:
Illinois state Rep. Beth Coulson, a Republican moderate, will announce Aug. 24 that she is running in the 10th district open-seat race, according to two sources familiar with her campaign. [...]
In addition to Coulson, several businessmen have also indicated their interest in the race. Businessman Dick Green has hired consultants and filed exploratory papers, while attorney Bill Cadigan - a former staffer for Kirk's predecessor, ex-Rep. John Porter (R) - has also filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission.
Another potential candidate, businessman Bob Dold, also met with NRCC recruitment chair Kevin McCarthy over the weekend, so it's possible that the Republican primary could be pretty crowded here, with Coulson on the left flank of the field. More, from Roll Call:
Coulson is likely to be the most liberal Republican in the field, and she is considered even more ideologically moderate than Kirk. According to a source close to Green, he is more conservative than Kirk but still moderate on social issues.
Coulson's fundraising skills, however, remain untested. While running for legislative office, Coulson could take advantage of liberal state fundraising laws. Several local Republicans questioned whether she will be successful in raising money under federal contribution limits.
Green, meanwhile, has indicated that he is willing to put some of his personal financial resources into the race.
Lots of question marks here, but I suspect the NRCC may try to whittle the field down for Coulson before Illinois' February 2nd primary.
At first glance, those numbers might seem a bit laughable, but don't forget: Seals put out some pretty similar internal polls last cycle, including one in November 2007 that showed him leading the hapless Jay Footlik by 58-6. Seals eventually won that primary with 81% of the vote despite Footlik raising some decent pie.
The Math is pretty formidable for Seals here -- he posts an 83% name recognition score, and a 70-13 favorable/unfavorable spread. In short, despite losing two general elections in a row, Democratic voters appear to like Seals pretty well. Hamos, a state representative who lives in the nearby 9th District, is only known to 18% of voters, so she has some room to grow, but she'd have to raise some seriously huge scrilla to wash out Seals' strong and early advantage.
The full, Resistance Is Futile-themed polling memo is available below the fold.
• CA-Sen: Sorry none of us could be bothered to talk about this poll on Friday: Rasmussen polled the California Senate race again and found former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina gaining some ground on Sen. Barbara Boxer. Boxer leads 45-41 (it was 47-38 in March). Interestingly, though, Fiorina, who quite publicly drove HP into a ditch, already has negative favorable ratings (30/35, with 35% unsure), which has to be a bad sign for any challenger. Boxer is still in positive territory (50/47), so I have no idea to square those results with the head-to-head.
• IL-Sen: State treasurer Alexi Giannoulias had his official campaign launch this weekend, where he name-dropped Barack Obama at every opportunity.
• NY-Sen-B: Is this a sign that Rep. Carolyn Maloney may be backing away from the Senate race, or is she just sidetracked by the chaos in the House? She had been scheduled to announce her primary campaign against Kirsten Gillibrand today or tomorrow, but now Maloney tells the New York Post that the timetable is no longer in effect, and didn't say anything about a new timetable, other than to say that "This week we are confronting health care."
• AK-Gov: If the world seems a slightly lighter place today, it's because it's our first Sarah Palin-free day in a while; she turned the keys to the state over to Sean Parnell yesterday. I guess now I and other members of the media can, in honor of the American soldier, quit makin' stuff up about her.
• MA-Gov: The Boston Globe polled Deval Patrick's prospects and found he's still in trouble. (The poll was conducted on the Globe's behalf by often-clueless UNH, so take with the requisite spoonful of salt.) His job approvals are 35/56, and he narrowly loses head-to-heads with both prospective GOPers, 41-35 to Charlie Baker and 41-40 to Christy Mihos. If Dem-turned-Independent treasurer Tim Cahill gets in the race as planned, though, the Republicans fade into the background, as Cahill seems to vacuum up the anti-Patrick votes. Patrick and Cahill tie both matchups: 30-30-20 with Baker, and 31-31-18 with Mihos.
• NJ-Gov: Jon Corzine picked his Lt. Gov. running mate: state Sen. Loretta Weinberg, a 74-year-old granny from Bergen County noted for pushing for ethics reform. This comes instead of, as rumored, Apprentice winner Randal Pinkett. Those in the know seem to think that Corzine may have been motivated to pick her in order to emphasize ethics in the wake of the federal arrests of a swarm of lower elected officials, including some Corzine allies. The New York Times presents a dark picture of Corzine's campaign, framing the corruption sweep as one more blow that he can't handle, and actually starts speculating on what Dem might replace Corzine at the top of the ticket should be back out (it mentions Newark mayor Cory Booker and Rep. Frank Pallone). The NYT says Corzine still has no plans to bail, but state machine boss George Norcross is making no secret that he wants Corzine out of the race.
• VA-Gov: Barack Obama will be coming to Virginia to stump for Creigh Deeds, with both a public rally and private fundraiser on Aug. 6. This comes as GOP candidate Bob McDonnell has been seeking to increasingly go after Deeds on national issues, as at their first debate where McDonnell challenged Deeds on cap-and-trade and EFCA. Deeds may need some outside help, as he's had trouble nailing down some of the local big names, most prominently former Gov. Douglas Wilder.
• IL-10: State Rep. Julie Hamos says she'll officially announce tomorrow that she's running for the Democratic nod in the now-open 10th. She had been planning to run for AG until Lisa Madigan surprised everyone by deciding to run for another term. Instead, she joins a top-drawer field with state Sen. Michael Bond and 06/08 candidate Dan Seals already in.
• NY-23: We'll have to wait until tomorrow for Democrats in the 23rd District to have even a plan for picking a candidate, let alone have a candidate, as they seem to have not had much of a Plan B in the event that Darrel Aubertine didn't run. The Dems say they've received about 18 applications; Watertown Daily Times gotten confirmations from 06 nominee Michael Oot, 94 nominee Danny Francis, attorney Stuart Brody, attorney Keith Caughlin, and state assistant inspector general for Medicaid John Sullivan that they are among the 18. Meanwhile, Jim Kelly (no, not the quarterback) sounds like he's gearing up to run on the Conservative line.
• VA-05: Ex-Rep. Virgil Goode made it official that he won't be running against Tom Perriello to get his seat back. (Now maybe he can stop running around the district handing out oversize checks.) Speculation turns to GOP state Senator Rob Hurt and delegate Rob Bell, who don't have the name rec or fundraising power of Goode, but don't have the polarizing reputations either.
The field to replace GOP Rep. Mark Kirk in the House is quickly taking shape. First, '06/'08 Democratic nominee Dan Seals is back for a third try, according to an e-mail that his campaign sent to his supporters (Lynn Sweet has the full text here). Dan Seals is a heck of a nice guy, and he was a prodigious fundraiser last cycle, but it remains to be seen if he'll enjoy anything close to the groundswell of financial and grassroots support that he received in the '08 Democratic primary, where he absolutely crushed attorney Jay Footlik.
One thing that could make his task easier, as he attempts this third bite at the apple, is the announcement from state Sen. Susan Garrett that she will be staying put in legislature. From Roll Call:
National Democrats have tried to recruit state Sen. Susan Garrett (D) in the 10th district for the past few cycles, but she has resisted a bid each time. In a phone interview Monday, Garrett said she has decided not to run for the open-seat race.
"I made the decision this weekend, albeit it wasn't easy," Garrett said. "I'm here to stay for a while."
Garrett is close with state Rep. Julie Hamos (D), who she said will move from Rep. Jan Schakowsky's (D) neighboring district into the 10th district to run. Hamos did not return a call for comment on the race, but Garrett said she would be likely to support her at some point in the campaign.
At this point it's just Seals, state Sen. Michael Bond (whose underwhelming $86K second quarter haul did his candidacy no favors) and attorney Elliot Richardson vying for the Democratic nod, but it's possible that more names from local offices could emerge.
For the GOP, Roll Call and CQ both rattle off a similar batch of names:
Businessman Dick Green, CEO of Briefing.com
Businessman Bill Strong, former Illinois finance chairman for John McCain's Presidential campaign
Take a look at that last name on the list. Beth Coulson, a moderate Republican, would be a pretty strong choice for the GOP in theory. In an interview with Roll Call, she says that the NRCC has been in contact with her and that she'll make a decision on the race next month, but her staff doesn't seem to be on the same page -- they told CQ that she will be running for re-election instead of Congress next year. So which is it?
Dan Seals announced his candidacy to seek the democratic nomination for IL-10 this morning.
With Kirk running for Senate, it's not too surprising that Seals decided to run again. But whether his previous elections will give him a leg up in the race will be an interesting development to find out
Here is an article from Lynn Sweet of the Chicago Sun-Times:
• WI-Gov: Hot on the heels of changing Ohio to Lean Dem yesterday, today we're downgrading the Wisconsin gubernatorial race to Lean Dem as well. We aren't reacting to any one recent event (the only twopolls so far have dramatically disparate results, but they average out to a tight race), but realized that we had no business keeping WI-Gov at Likely Dem if OH-Gov is going to be Lean Dem.
• CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina seems to be moving toward running against Barbara Boxer after all, not taking formal steps but rubbing elbows with the right people. Here's some ill-timed bad PR for her, though: Fiorina has been telling people that she's now CEO of her own company (Carly Fiorina Enterprises) and her own foundation (Fiorina Foundation), but neither one has been registered with the proper state or federal authorities... which might lead some to question her vaunted business organization skills.
• IL-Sen: The Fix reports that alleged field-clearing heavyweight Rep. Mark Kirk may still face a contested GOP primary in the Senate race; state party chair Andy McKenna, recruited as the GOP's Plan B, seems to be staying in for now, and the state's Republican congressional delegation is staying, at least publicly, neutral. The flashpoint may be Kirk's recent vote in favor of cap-and-trade.
• MO-Sen: In the "did he really just say that file?" Roy Blunt offers up a doozy: in a conservative talk radio interview, he said that maybe it would have been better if the federal government had never created Medicare, Medicaid, or VA health care, because it "distorts the marketplace." Way to put the senior citizen vote in play there, Roy!
• NV-Sen: Off-the-record GOP consultants say that a John Ensign resignation may be "on the table" and that there are worries that there may still be even more undisclosed payments to the Hamptons floating around. If there are public calls for resignation from the other key GOPers in Nevada -- Gov. Jim Gibbons, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, Rep. Dean Heller -- it's time to prepare the fork for sticking (of course, with two of those three in deep scandal of their own, there's a certain pot/kettle thing going on).
• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter made his first aggressive moves against possible primary challenger Rep. Joe Sestak today, calling him a "flagrant hypocrite" for not being a Democrat until 2006. (Sestak was an Independent during his decades of military service, and switched to Dem once he was out of the service.) Hmmm... remind me again which year Arlen Specter became a Democrat? Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the NRSC just can't help themselves from hiking the Appalachian Trail despite their efforts to fall back in love with Pat Toomey. They've been talking behind the scenes with state Sen. Jane Orie about running in the primary (although she's almost as conservative as Toomey, so it's not clear what benefit that would provide).
• AK-Gov: Guess who's saying "thanks but no thanks" to the assistance offered by the divine Sarah Palin: the GOP candidates in the two very-close blue-state gubernatorial races this year, Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell. (On the other hand, Rick Perry, who needs to rally every wingnut he can get his hands on in order to win his primary in Texas, welcomes her.) The Hill also sniffs out a number of other candidates facing possibly tough races who'd like her to stay far, far away, including Reps. Lee Terry, Frank Wolf, Mike Castle, and Pete Hoekstra. (In his efforts to become World's Most Tone-Deaf Man, Roy Blunt welcomes her help, though.) Finally, check out Peggy Noonan's authoritative takedown of Palin today; say what you will about the whole pure evil thing, the woman has a way with words.
• PA-Gov: With a lot of people looking at the Democratic field in the Governor's race and asking "is that all there is?" a familiar face is considering the race: Montgomery Co. Commissioner (and former Rep. and 2004 Senate candidate) Joe Hoeffel. In his favor, he'd be the only elected official from the Philly area in the race (Tom Knox is from Philly, but has never held office).
• IL-10: With Rep. Mark Kirk kindly leaving an open seat for us, both the Daily Herald and Roll Call take a look at the developing fields in this race. On the Dem side, the leading contenders are state Sens. Michael Bond (already in the race) and Susan Garrett. Dan Seals, who lost in 2006 and 2008 to Kirk, is also considering a third try. The only GOPer in the race is Patricia Bird, but businessman Dick Green and state Rep. Elizabeth Coulson are likely contestants.
• NY-23: Don't count out state Sen. Darrel Aubertine on becoming the Democratic candidate in NY-23, despite the ongoing craziness in the New York state Senate. Although the July 17 filing deadline is coming up and he hasn't made any noise about it, Aubertine is still considering it and will have the requisite family sit-down about it once he has the time (which maybe he'll have, now that the Senate is back to "normal").
• VA-05: Rep. Tom Perriello has become the focus in the tug-of-war over cap-and-trade. A week after the NRCC made him the sole target of a TV attack ad for voting in favor, the League of Conservation Voters is running thank-you ads in his central Virginia district.
• Mayors: Louisiana Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu has options, but he ruled out a third run at New Orleans mayor, for which he'd been considered front-runner. A run for Governor in 2011 (or maybe not until the open seat in 2015) now seems likelier. This leaves city councilor Arnie Fielkow in the driver's seat for the next mayoral election.
• Caucuses: This seems like an odd time for this to happen, in the middle of the fight over health care reform: the Congressional Progessive Caucus canned its executive director, Bill Goold, without much explanation.
• IL-10: Roll Call takes a look at the potential GOP and Dem fields to replace Rep. Mark Kirk should he decide to run for Senate. A spokesperson for '06/'08 nominee Dan Seals says that he's in for a third crack at the seat if Kirk vacates the scene, but state Sens. Michael Bond and Susan Garrett are also possible recruits. For the GOP, potential contenders include state Reps. Beth Coulson, JoAnn Osmond, and Ed Sullivan Jr -- as well as state Sens. Dan Duffy and Matt Murphy. Coulson, perhaps the most moderate choice the GOP has to offer, might run into some problems in a GOP primary against a more conservative choice like Murphy. (J)
• PA-Sen: The Republican caucus in the Pennsylvania state Senate seems reluctant to comply with Arlen Specter's desire to allow independents to vote in closed-party primary elections. If the state ultimately leaves the primary rules as they are, Specter will face the daunting task of convincing independents and Democrats to change their party registrations over to the GOP column in order for him to gain leverage against Pat Toomey. (J)
On a very related note, Specter just announced this afternoon that he will be opposing EFCA (an about-face from his previous support for it in previous sessions). Apparently he now thinks the GOP primary is his biggest worry, not maintaining union support for the general.
• MN-06: We'll never get tired of loving Michele Bachmann. Her latest:
I want people in Minnesota armed and dangerous on this issue of the energy tax because we need to fight back. Thomas Jefferson told us 'having a revolution every now and then is a good thing,' and the people - we the people - are going to have to fight back hard if we're not going to lose our country. And I think this has the potential of changing the dynamic of freedom forever in the United States.
• CO-04: Speculation is growing about who the GOP will find to take on freshman Rep. Betsy Markey in this one-time GOP stronghold turned swing district. State rep. Cory Gardner seems to generate the most buzz, who has already met with the NRCC. Other possibilities include former UC regent Tom Lucero and Ft. Collins city councilor Diggs Brown.
• MI-12: Sander Levin must have had a lot of advance notice of the just-announced primary challenge from state senator Mickey Switalski, because he's already produced an internal poll from the Mellman Group showing him demolishing Switalski. Levin beats Switalski 62-14 in a head-to-head, and maintains a 74-15 favorable rating. (Switalski's favorables are 23-8, leaving 69% unsure.)
• NH-02: Another GOPer has lined up for the open House seat left behind by Paul Hodes: Len Mannino, former Milford selectman and current school board member, is publicly expressing his interest. He'll face an uphill fight against talk radio host Jennifer Horn, who seems to be aiming for a rematch.
• CT-Sen: In 1970, Connecticut's senior senator, beset by ethical issues (including a Senate censure) and health troubles, failed to re-claim the Democratic Party's nomation and came in third as an independent that November. That man was Thomas Dodd, Chris Dodd's father. Click the link for some fascinating details about his saga. And let's hope that history doesn't repeat - or even rhyme. (D)
• TX-Gov: Todd Hill of the Burnt Orange Report sat down for an extended interview with Democratic candidate Tom Schieffer. (D)
Looks like Daily Kos has a bit of competition on the blogs-commissioning-polls front: Illinois local blog Progress Illinois (sponsored by the Illinois SEIU) has ordered polls of the two hottest House races in Illinois. The IL-11 poll is extremely good news; there had been some worries that the Halvorson internal from a few days ago taken by Anzalone Liszt was a little too good to be true (at 48-29), but these numbers almost exactly match. Money was the one asset that Ozinga had and it kept him competitive for many months, but with his fundraising numbers trailing off and Ozinga's big fundraising dinner with Dick Cheney last week called off so Cheney could go get his heart rebooted, Ozinga's chances seem to be circling the drain.
UPDATE: Swing State Project has upgraded IL-11 to Lean Democratic.
Dan Seals (D): 41
Mark Kirk (R-inc): 47
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Things don't look quite as good further north in the 10th, as Dan Seals trails incumbent Mark Kirk by 6. This is pretty close to R2K's poll from a few weeks ago (Kirk up 44-38), but a mirror image to SurveyUSA's subsequent poll (Seals up 52-44). It's still encouraging to see Kirk well below 50, but it looks like this one will go down to the wire, with Seals heavily dependent on Obama coattails.
Progress Illinois has a pretty amusing take-down of faux-moderate GOP Rep. Mark Kirk's recent backtracking on his enthusiasm for Sarah Palin.
Earlier in September, Kirk was gushing about how "encouraged" he was that McCain tapped Palin, and that he was excited that the GOP would be the ones to once again break through "key barriers" in politics by electing a female VP. In a radio interview the next day, describing her as a "fearless" maverick with a history of bucking the old GOP guard. He even went so far as to squawk about Palin's deep "executive experience":
HOWELL: How can you convince me -- a guy who is not a far-right social conservative Republican -- to really consider her one heart beat away from the Presidency?
KIRK: She's obviously an unknown figure, but she has had a rocket sled of a career already in Alaska. I think as governor, obviously she does have more executive experience -- ironically -- than the three other guys on the ticket. Her big asset, though, will be on the campaign. We have seen Sen. Obama now standing forth as a recognized national figure, but his greatest achievement has been his own campaign, and being able to command and defeat the electorate and push Hillary Clinton to the side. We now will look at Sarah Palin. She did very well in her first time out when she was nominated by Sen. McCain. It was a risky strategy.
In an interview of two of the 10th Congressional District candidates conducted by the Tribune editorial board, Kirk would not say whether he believed Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin had the qualifications to become president.
"Quite frankly, I don't know," said Kirk, 49, of Highland Park, when asked if Palin could step into the job. In answer to repeated inquiries about Palin's experience, Kirk said, "I would have picked someone different."
Of course you would have, Mark.
Update: Statement from the Seals campaign:
"It says a lot about Mark Kirk's desperation that he will say one thing when he's in front of an editorial board, and do another thing when he's attending the Republican National Convention and bundling over a hundred thousand dollars for the McCain-Palin ticket. Despite his latest efforts to distance himself from the sinking McCain-Palin ship, he can't run from his attacks against Dan for supporting the Obama agenda or praise of Palin's now discredited 'reformer' credentials. Once again, Mark Kirk has shown that he is more interested in playing partisan political games than bringing the change we need to Washington."
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
Over the past few weeks, our nation has been swept with the shocking revelation from former White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan that the Bush White House engaged in conscious deception to lead our country to war with Iraq. After the thousands of American lives lost, hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars appropriated, and five plus years spent in Iraq, this latest disclosure underscores the need for change in Washington.
My name is Dan Seals and as many of you may know, I am running for Congress in Illinois' 10th district. I wanted to take this opportunity to first thank all of you for the outpouring of support I received through Blue Majority but also to introduce myself as a candidate for Congress.
The IL House primaries were held in conjunction with the state's Presidential primary. It was a very busy night with 15 contests in the regular phase plus two more to find candidates to fill the balance of Denny Hastert's term in 2008. Overall, it was a great night for the favorites.
Hastert's IL-14 open seat saw the closest contest of the night. Millionaire scientist Bill Foster scraped by winning by 323 votes in the election for the nomination for the full-term over carpenter (and 2006 candidate) John Laesch. The final tally was Foster 31,910; Laesch 31,587; Joe Serra 5,947; and Jotham Stein 5,757. In the "special" election Foster had more breathing room prevailing by 3,000 votes with 31,792 to Laesch's 28,053 and 4,949 for Jotham Stein. The hard fought Republican contest saw millionaire dairy owner Jim Oberweis finally win after losing three shots at statewide office. Oberweis took 56% in the special to Chris Lauzen's 44% (overall about 8,000 more votes were cast in the Republican primary for the special). The general was not quite as close with Oberweis pulling in 56% (again), Lauzen at 41%, and Michael Dilger getting the balance.
The battle between Bush Dog Dan Lipinski and Mark Pera in IL-3 was not as close as predicted. Lipinski got a clear majority with 53% while beating his main opponent Pera by 2-1 (Pera had 26%). Jim Capparelli (12%) and Jerry Bennett (9%) rounded out the field. Even the Chicago Tribune called Lipinski a Democrat in name only in its coverage. Grr.
again, the most important news is that early voting has begun. for those who live in illinois' 10th congressional district, the ballot positions for the primary election are:
After a short 11-month campaign and a lot of hard work, Dan shocked the pundits and incumbent Mark Kirk by winning 47 percent in the election. Dan is vying for the seat again in 2008, and this time with even more support.
this race isn't generating as much coverage as the others, simply because it is turning out to be not much of a race. the endorsement interview at the chicago tribune can be found here:
if you watch this video, which was ended abruptly where others were extended, the interviewer asks jay footlik the question that is on everyone's mind: why are you running, and "risk the possibility of perhaps splitting sensibilities among democrats when he (seals) came so close last time?" it's the question on many democrat's minds in the tenth.
The contest will be one of the most expensive in the nation. Third quarter fund-raising reports gives Seals $498,872 cash on hand; Footlik, making his first run for office, has a $414,018 warchest. The winner faces Kirk, who has stockpiled $1.5 million and has no primary opponent.
"The issue here," carol marin says, "is whether the battle between Seals and Footlik will splinter Jewish voters, sap each campaign of cash and strength in the primary, and give Kirk the advantage he needs to capture a fifth term."
New Year, New Resolution, New Commitment to Making a Difference. This is my first diary I have ever written on a major progressive blog. I may not live in a Swing State (Illinois), but I certainly live in a Swing District, IL-10. It is my intention to work deligently to see the seat currently occupied by Mark Kirk move to the Democratic column in 2008.
