• FL-Sen: Here's a big score for Marco Rubio, who's quickly cementing himself as darling for the conservative movement. He got the keynote address at CPAC's 2010 gathering, the conservative movement's version of Lollapalooza. Charlie Crist's response? Re-flip-flop on the stimulus! Today he said it was "pretty clear" he did support it at the time. The civil war in Florida is also resulting in a larger spotlight being shone on state party chair (and key Crist ally) Jim Greer, who's the subject of an interesting (and very critical) Miami Herald piece.
• KY-Sen: A strange kerfuffle erupted in the GOP primary in Kentucky, when Rand Paul earlier this week declined to promise to support Mitch McConnell for minority leader in the face of a hypothetical leadership challenge by Jim DeMint. Paul's rival, SoS Trey Grayson, pledged fealty to McConnell and attacked Paul for being more beholden to his "Libertarian donor base" than his fellow Kentuckians. Then, yesterday, Paul met privately with McConnell in Louisville, and after having had his brain implant installed a productive conversation, emerged filled with praise for McConnell and saying he had "no reason not to support him."
• MA-Sen (pdf): Another poll from local pollsters Suffolk give a big lead to AG Martha Coakley, who's pulling in 44% of the Democratic primary vote. She's trailed by Stephen Pagliuca at 17, Rep. Michael Capuano at 16, and Alan Khazei at 3. (Coakley was at 47 and Capuano at 9 in September according to Suffolk.) Also, there appears to be one route to victory for Republican state Sen. Scott Brown: make sure that Alan Khazei somehow wins the primary. Brown beats Khazei 33-30, while losing 58-27 to Coakley, 48-29 to Capuano, and 49-27 to Pagliuca. (Brown leads perennial candidate Jack E. Robinson 45-7 in the GOP primary.)
Meanwhile, Capuano got another endorsement from among the ranks of his House colleagues, this one pretty high-profile: Nancy Pelosi. Pagliuca, on the other hand, is trying to dig out of his self-created hole, when he "misunderstood" a debate question and said that he supports reinstating a military draft.
• AL-Gov: Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks seems to have hit on an issue that differentiates him from Rep. Artur Davis in their Democratic gubernatorial primary fight: health care reform. Davis voted against it (seemingly earning him the sudden enmity of the entire netroots), and now Sparks has been loudly touting the public option, as he did at an appearance before the Madison County Democratic Women yesterday.
• CO-Gov: State Senate minority leader Josh Penry thumbed his nose rather unsubtly at ex-Rep. Scott McInnis as he departed the governor's primary race, saying in a recent interview that not only was he not endorsing McInnis, but also that he still felt that he would be the better candidate. Is he heading for a Tom Tancredo endorsement instead? (After all, Tancredo did a lot to boost Penry's campaign.) We can only hope.
• IL-Gov: State GOP chair (and would-be Mark Kirk antagonist) Andy McKenna got a substantial boost in his quest for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. He got the endorsement of Tom Cross, the state House minority leader.
• MD-Gov: Republican ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich seems to be giving more weight to the idea of a rematch against Martin O'Malley, if recent comments to the press are any indication. The Republican gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey may be giving him some added incentive.
• TX-Gov: A new Rasmussen poll finds Gov. Rick Perry opening up a big lead over Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican gubernatorial primary: 45-36, with 4% to Paulist Debra Medina. This is a big reversal from September's Rasmussen poll, which gave KBH a 40-38 edge. Hutchison is still racing to the right, as she said that she'd be likely to try to opt out of the public option as governor, but Perry is leading that race too, cheerfully let us know that Barack Obama is "hell-bent on taking America towards a socialist country."
• DE-AL: State Rep. Greg Lavelle, one of the names dropped by Rep. Mike Castle as suggestions for a successor, said that he won't take on the uphill task of trying to hold Castle's seat. Businessman Fred Cullis is the only Republican running so far.
• NC-11: Rep. Heath Shuler's role in a 2007 land swap has the potential to hurt him next year. The Tennessee Valley Authority's inspector general cleared him of wrongdoing in the matter (as did the House Ethics committee), but the TVA is saying that Shuler wasn't honest to the press about it, when he said that there hadn't been any contact between himself and the TVA.
• NY-23: Although there's nothing to suggest that Doug Hoffman is in a place where he can catch up to Bill Owens, it'll still be a while till the election can be certified -- possibly not till early next month. (Unfortunately, this means putting off the final results of our predictions contest from last week! We'll keep you posted.)
• SC-04: Republican Rep. Bob Inglis keeps backing away from his party's right wing (and probably away from his job, in his dark-red district). He said that he can't "identify" with what we called the "hard right." Interestingly, he still identifies as "religious right," but seems to counterpose that against the teabaggers' movement, also saying: "As a religious right guy, I'm thinking there was a guy named Jesus who had some things to say about these kinds of concepts. And I don't want to live in a society that lets a few test cases die on the steps of the hospital. I can't go there."
• VA-St. Sen.: The Democrats still control the Virginia state Senate (thanks to none of its seats being in the balance in the election last week), but it's a fragile 21-19 edge. Especially troublesome: 83-year-old Charles Colgan only reluctantly ran for reelection in 2007, Ralph Northam considered flipping to the Republicans earlier this year, and now Bob McDonnell seems interested in taking a page from Steve Beshear and Eliot Spitzer by appointing Senate Dems to cushy jobs in his administration. On the plus side, though, there are two special elections coming up, to replace Republicans who were elected to other positions last week. The seat of Ken Stolle (new Virginia Beach sheriff) is pretty Republican-leaning, but new AG Ken Cuccinelli's seat in Democratic-leaning Fairfax County is a potential pickup.
• Redistricting: This is interesting; Republicans keep pushing to make redistricting fairer in Indiana, despite that they'll control the process coming out of the next census. SoS Todd Rokita has already pushed for laws to make it a more neutral process, and now state Senate President Pro Tem David Long is pushing for an independent commission to draw legislative boundaries.
• Votes: Here's a first: Republicans actually regretting doing something wrong. They're privately saying that they "failed to anticipate" the political consequences of a no vote on the Franken amendment, that leaves them exposed to charges of insensitivity to rape victims and hands ammo to Democrats. (Well, maybe that's more regretting getting caught, rather than regretting doing something wrong...)
• OFA: Organizing for America is firing up the Batsignal, summoning volunteers on the ground in 32 districts that were won by Obama but are held by House Republicans. The plan is for the volunteers to visit the Reps' offices and demand support for health care reform.
• NY-23: There was a brief moment of collective "Holy crap!" earlier today when people realized that the race in the 23rd wasn't quite over. The Bill Owens lead over Doug Hoffman shrank considerably (down to 3,176 votes currently, compared to 5,335 at the end of election night) after recanvassing, including discovery of some errors in Hoffman-leaning Oswego County. There remain 5,600 absentee votes to be counted, so for the election results to actually change, Hoffman would need to win about 80% of those votes (many of which were sent in while Dede Scozzafava was still in the race). Hoffman's camp is admitting that the results of the race aren't about to change, but they say they might not have conceded so quickly on Election Night if they'd known it was going to be so close -- meaning that the big story here is that they could have stopped Bill Owens from being sworn in and providing one of the decisive votes on health care reform in the House.
• FL-Sen: Every day now seems to bring a little more bad news for Charlie Crist, and today's bit is that members of the Florida state GOP are demanding an "emergency closed door meeting" with the state chair, Jim Greer. The meeting-demanders seem to be Marco Rubio supporters, and they're particularly exercised about Crist's relationship with sketchy financial backer Scott Rothstein.
• IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk's pronounced turn to the right has been unsubtle enough that even NARAL is noticing, and calling him out on it. They're no longer considering him "pro-choice" after his Stupak amendment vote, and say they'll be working toward his defeat next year.
• ME-Sen: We weren't the only ones to take notice of Olympia Snowe's terrible approvals among Republicans according to PPP. The Family Research Council is now saying that if a conservative candidate shows up to run against Snowe in 2012, the FRC will back them.
• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP's newest poll of North Carolina finds more of what they've been finding all year: people are lukewarm about Richard Burr (with an approval of 40/31) and he only narrowly leads a Generic Dem (44-40). However, Burr does better against named Democrats, including Rep. Bob Etheridge (45-35), SoS Elaine Marshall (45-34), and former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker (45-33).
• NV-Sen: There's yet another hapless-seeming Republican entering the GOP Senate field: former Nevada Board of Education member Greg Dagani. Dagani is probably best known for resigning from the Board of Education after getting caught making out with his wife during a public meeting. Wait... his wife, and not a staffer (or someone he met in Argentina and/or the men's room)? Are we sure he's a Republican?
• UT-Sen: Here's a little more information on the two new guys scoping out the GOP field in the wake of AG Mark Shurtleff's departure, suggesting that they both have the potential to be formidable opponents to Bob Bennett. In fact, these two might do better at gaining the favor of the teabaggers, in that Shurtleff (who was running to the conservative Bennett's right) was somehow considered not conservative enough in some circles (mostly owing to his immigration stance). Wealthy businessman Fred Lampropoulos was a gubernatorial candidate in 2004, almost forcing Jon Huntsman to a primary. And while lawyer Mike Lee hasn't run for office before, he's the son of Mormon leader and former BYU president Rex Lee, which means a lot in Utah (although Bennett's family's role in the Mormon church also looms large).
• CO-Gov: Is Scott McInnis about to get Scozzafavaed? The law of unintended consequences seems to point that direction. After ex-Rep. McInnis's establishment moneybags supporters thought they were being smart by hounding state Senate minority leader Josh Penry out of the GOP primary, that just seemed to tick off the anti-establishment base. And now a much higher-profile (and much less palatable in the general) candidate with a national following to draw on is emerging to take Penry's place. Yes, it's ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo, who's saying that he'll file to create an exploratory committee in the next few days.
• MN-Gov: Another Republican fell by the wayside in the overstuffed Minnesota gubernatorial race. State Sen. Mike Jungbauer dropped out, citing fundraising troubles and a weak showing in a recent straw poll.
• WI-Gov: People have treated Republican Milwaukee Co. Exec Scott Walker as a strong contender in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race, but he seems to have a certain tone-deafness about him: he met with Sarah Palin during her Wisconsin visit to try to secure an endorsement from her... in a state where Barack Obama won 56-42.
• DE-AL: Republicans managed to lure somebody into the open seat race to replace Rep. Mike Castle, despite that this race may be the Republicans' likeliest House loss in 2010. Fred Cullis, who owns an industrial sales company, said he'd be an "independent voice" for Delaware a la Castle.
• FL-08: I don't know if this is an indicator of the NRCC having settled on Bruce O'Donoghue as its consensus pick, or a case of Rep. Alan Grayson having yet more success with his voodoo doll, but yet another prospective Republican challenger is turning tail and running. First-term state Rep. Eric Eisnaugle made public his decision not to run.
• FL-16: St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Craft has previously sounded some moderate notes as he takes on freshman Republican Rep. Tom Rooney in this R+5 district, but he's not playing it safe on health care. He came out yesterday saying that he'd have voted for the House health care reform bill and against the Stupak amendment.
• PA-17: Republican state Senator David Argall batted down rumors that he'd challenge long-time Rep. Tim Holden in this GOP-leaning Harrisburg-based seat, saying he was "99% sure" he wouldn't run. Blue Dog Holden seems on track to receive his usual free pass.
• Nassau Co. Exec: Republican Ed Mangano's lead over incumbent Dem Tom Suozzi expanded to 497 in the recount of the Nassau County Executive race on Long Island. Suozzi also waxed philosophical in an interesting interview with Ben Smith, pointing to a public exhaustion with civic engagement and a return to "self-interest" on tax issues.
• Mayors: Endorsements from the 3rd place finishers were handed out in the runoff elections in both the Atlanta and Houston mayoral races. In Houston, city controller Annise Parker got the endorsement of city councilor Peter Brown, who surprisingly finished behind Parker and former city attorney Gene Locke. (Locke is African-American, Parker is white and a lesbian, and Brown is a straight white guy.) And in Atlanta, city councilor Lisa Borders endorsed state Senator Kasim Reed, consolidating the African-American vote against white city councilor Mary Norwood, who finished first.
• Vote By Mail: Washingtonians are getting pretty tired of watching their elections drag on (the Seattle mayoral race this time). There's a renewed move afoot in Washington to change election laws to match the mail-in ballot law in better-organized Oregon, where ballots must be received by Election Day instead of postmarked by Election Day. The movement is getting a boost with Gov. Chris Gregoire's support.
Conventional wisdom among legacy media pundits, once Rep. Mike Castle somewhat unexpectedly got into the Senate race, was that the race had suddenly shot past tossup status into Republican leaning territory. Today's first R2K poll of the race should dispel that notion: AG Beau Biden is fully competitive with Castle, trailing him by only 1, and matching the popular Castle on favorables (65/29 for Biden, 64/30 for Castle). And that's before any gloves have come off (for instance, the DSCC bringing its weight, and the presence of a certain vice-presidential dad, to bear). If there's any doubt, consider the case of Bill Roth's 2000 election, as an indication of what happens when popular but tired and aging Delaware icons who've never really been tested, and who've slowly gotten out of touch with a gradually bluening state, run up against a vigorous opponent.
There's one question remaining, though: is Biden actually going to run? Having recently returned from Iraq, Biden hasn't said much on the matter yet, leaving some worried that the entry of Castle into the race might deter him. In the event that he doesn't, R2K polled some other possibilities (including caretaker Sen. Ted Kaufman staying on, former Lt. Gov. (and 2008 gubernatorial primary loser) John Carney switching from the House race, or New Castle County Exec Chris Coons getting in), and the results aren't as good. There's some good news on that front today, though: Biden is "absolutely" considering running for the Senate, according to ABC News. Biden will be making the decision "in due course," after the requisite family conference.
R2K also looks at the House race in the wake of Castle's vacating the seat, which is quickly shaping up to be one of the Dems' likeliest pickups in 2010. With the Democratic establishment firmly behind Carney, the GOP is just starting to cast its net. The top target is probably former state Sen. and former Lt. Gov. candidate Charlie Copeland, but other possibilities include state Reps. Tom Kovach and Greg Lavelle, businessmen Robert Harra and Anthony Wedo, and possibly former US Attorney Colm Connolly. In the end, which Republican takes the plunge may not matter much, as R2K finds Carney doubling-up on either Copeland or Lavelle.
Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) will be running for Vice President Joe Biden's old Senate seat in Delaware, according to two GOP sources connected to the congressman, instantly giving Republicans the opportunity to flip a traditionally-Democratic seat in their column.
Castle will be making a formal announcement at noon in his hometown of Wilmington. Castle had been debating whether to run for higher office, or retire after serving nine terms in the House.
I'm honestly surprised that Castle, who's getting long in the tooth, agreed to fight for this four-year term. I'm also not used to Republicans actually having so much honest-to-God success in the recruiting department, but the NRSC has been on an absolute tear this year. Castle will be a formidable candidate for the GOP here; in all three polls that we've seen of this state in the past year, Castle has edged Democratic AG Beau Biden by anywhere from 5 to 21 points. That, combined with Castle's long statewide electoral track record, is enough for us to change our rating of this race from Safe D (RTW) to Tossup.
These are the best numbers yet for Beau in a head-to-head against Castle. Back in March, Public Policy Polling had Castle up by 8 points, and a debatable Susquehanna Research poll from May had Biden trailing by 21 points.
Biden's back from Iraq, and everyone -- Castle, included, it seems -- is waiting for him to make the first move. There have been some mixed signals out of Delaware on Biden's intentions, but the overwhelming sentiment is that he'll jump into the race soon. So what'll it be for Castle: retiring to catch some rays in Florida or jumping into a Senate campaign?
The most important question for us horse-race analysts is probably, "What does this mean for whether he's gonna be running at all, and for which seat?". The guy, who's both a moderate Republican and a veteran member of Congress, is obviously aware of these shenanigans, but does he want to have to deal with them?
In other news, please say hi to Bill "Quarter Alligator" Posey on your way out.
It doesn't look like Mike Castle is running for much of anything, does it? In June, he declined a key committee post that opened up in the House, and was last seen wistfully sighing about how nice it would be to retire to Florida's shuffleboard decks and early-bird specials.
Now comes Castle's 2Q fundraising report, and impressive it ain't. He took in $124K, and $110K of that was from PACs (which means he wasn't exactly hustling hard for that dough). That brings his total for the cycle to just $195K - not terribly terrific. He does have $861K in his warchest, but the last Delaware Republican to face a contested senate election - Bill Roth in 2000 - spent $4.5 million in a badly losing effort (and contribution limits were less than half what they are today).
Castle needs to fish or cut bait - and right now, he ain't catchin' much of anything.
for a good laugh, I set myself up on the Club for Growth e-mail list. I love to see what Democrats they target and I especially love to see them promote primary challenges to Republicans....especially when they are Republicans that we are targetting...like Mark Kirk.
Recently, the CfG sent out an e-mail complaining about 8 RINO's who voted in favor the "dangerous cap and trade bill" last Friday. They are looking for viable candidates to run primary challenges against these 7 (McHugh is the 8th vote but he's retiring)
Bono Mack, Mary (CA-45)
Castle, Mike (DE-AL)
Kirk, Mark (IL-10)
Lance, Leonard (NJ-07)
LoBiondo, Frank (NJ-02)
Reichert, Dave (WA-08)
Smith, Chris (NJ-04)
I can't help but notice that Democrats ran strong challenges in several of these districts and are primed to do so again. It would certaintly work to our benefit if we gave the CfG a little boost in helping to find some viable primary challengers to these Republican candidates.
Does anybody have any knowledge of potential Republican candidates in these races that we could give some encouragement to get into these races or give the CfG some encouragement to try and get them in themselves??
It's no secret that Senate Republicans have hungrily eyed Delaware's at-large Rep. Mike Castle to pursue the state's open Senate seat in 2010, and there's no doubt that Castle would be a major force to be reckoned with should he enter the race. Susquehanna (not the most reputable GOP polling firm) released a poll in May showing Castle leading Democrat Beau Biden by a 55-34 margin, and the much more reputable Public Policy Polling gave Castle an 8-point edge over Biden, Jr. in March. Republican recruiters have been courting Castle heavily, and one local reporter is breathlessly claiming that a Castle candidacy is as good as gold.
Castle knows his likely opponent would be Biden's son Beau, Delaware's attorney general, now serving as a National Guard lawyer in Iraq.
The Biden dynasty draws national money. Meanwhile, says Castle, "my wife talks about beaches in Florida. I don't know if I want to run for the House again, let alone for the four years of Biden's term."
But Castle's the last proven vote-getter the Republicans have in the First State. If he steps down, Democrats could take both Senate and House posts. "That's the quandary."
It sounds to me like Castle is mulling the Senate race as a courtesy to his friends in Washington... but he clearly would rather be catching some rays with his wife. He says that he'll deliver his final decision "by the end of summer".
• CT-Sen: I guess I wasn't dreaming when I thought I heard economist and talking head Peter Schiff say he was still looking into the GOP primary for the Connecticut Senate race Tuesday night on the Daily Show... apparently he's making a full-court press all week gauging his support for a run. Schiff is a favorite of the Paulist wing of the party, and true to anarcho-libertarian form, he shrugs off the fact that he can't remember the last time he voted.
• FL-Sen: The Club for Growth doesn't get involved in Senate primaries very often (RI in 2006 and NM in 2008 being the exceptions), but the fact that Marco Rubio met this week with the CfG and they admitted to being "impressed" suggests that they might get involved here. The CfG may still be reluctant to get involved, though, simply given the unlikely return on their investment with the long odds Rubio faces against Charlie Crist.
• NY-Sen-B: Writer Jonathan Tasini, who got 17% in a challenge from the left to Hillary Clinton in the 2006 Senate primary, announced that he's going to run against Kirsten Gillibrand in the 2010 primary. It's still as unclear as ever if Rep. Carolyn Maloney will officially join Tasini in the hunt (and Tasini getting in may make it more difficult for her, seeing as how Tasini would eat into her share of the purer-than-thou vote), but Maloney seems to be testing out various attack lines against Gillibrand in a prerecorded interview with NY1 that will air tonight. Meanwhile, Gillibrand got another prominent endorsement today, although this one may help her more in the general than with the liberal base: former NYC mayor Ed Koch.
• UT-Sen: Somehow Bob Bennett has become flypaper for wingnuts lately. He's pulled down his fourth primary challenger, businessman and conservative activist James Williams.
• NJ-Gov: The Philadelphia Inquirer looks at a new conundrum for both Jon Corzine and Chris Christie: picking running mates. (This is the first New Jersey gubernatorial election since the creation of the Lt. Gov. position, a need made apparent by the resignations of both Christie Todd Whitman and Jim McGreevey.) This looks like an exercise in ticket-balancing, both in terms of gender and geography. State Senator Diane Allen from the Philly burbs in Burlington Co. (who declined the chance to run in NJ-03) may have the inside track for the GOP nod, although (paging open seat fans) one other name that gets a mention is NJ-02's Rep. Frank LoBiondo.
• OK-Gov: No surprise here, but AG Drew Edmondson today officially launched his exploratory campaign for the Democratic nomination for governor. Edmondson faces Lt. Gov. Jari Askins in the primary, giving the Dems two strong candidates facing a steep climb uphill against Oklahoma's ever-darker shade of red.
• DE-AL: Rep. Mike Castle said today that he won't seek the newly-open position of ranking member on the Education and Labor Committee, saying he wanted GOP stability on the panel. While this doesn't help us know whether he's planning to run for the Senate or retire, it does send a pretty clear signal the 69-year-old Castle isn't staying in the House.
• FL-24: This race is barely a couple days old, and already it's one of the most heated in the nation. Once Winter Park City Commissioner Karen Diebel announced her run, some local Democrats (although not the Kosmas camp) began pointing to a 2007 Orlando Sentinel article discussing some of her odd actions and outbursts. That brought on a counterattack from state GOP chair Jim Greer, who attacked freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas directly for gutter politicking.
• NV-03: The NRCC hasn't had much luck on the recruiting front in this D+2 district in the Las Vegas suburbs to take on freshman Rep. Dina Titus. Local banking executive John Guedry looks willing to step up to the plate, though, saying he's "seriously considering" it. Other possible GOPers include former Clark County GOP chair Brian Scroggins and former state Controller Steve Martin.
• SC-01: With Linda Ketner turning down the rematch against Rep. Henry Brown, all eyes have turned to state Rep. Leon Stavrinakis as a potential Dem nominee. He said he'll make a decision "sometime in July."
• TN-09: Rep. Steve Cohen is getting fundraising help from an interesting source, and still one of the most powerful forces in Memphis politics: former Rep. Harold Ford Sr. At first this seems odd, since Ford campaigned against Cohen and in support of his son, Jake Ford, in the 2006 general election (where Ford was running as an independent). However, Ford Sr. is a long-time foe of Cohen's 2010 primary opponent, Memphis mayor Willie Herenton, so that would tend to explain it all.
Numbers like these are the sort of thing that may nudge Castle into actually making a race of it, but bear in mind that Susquehanna is the same Republican firm that put out a somewhat dodgy-looking PA-Sen poll yesterday, so perhaps a grain of salt is merited here. A poll conducted in March by the much more reputable Public Policy Polling also had Castle leading Biden, Jr., but only by 44-36.
UPDATE: It also just occurs to me that Susquehanna is the same firm that released a poll last fall showing Democratic Rep. John Murtha leading his no-name Republican challenger by only five points. Murtha went on to win by 16 points in November.
It's starting to look like the DCCC's power-play of recruiting former Lt. Gov John Carney to run against Mike Castle for Delaware's at-large House seat may be successful in pushing the aging incumbent out of the House -- and possibly into the state's open seat Senate race instead. From Roll Call:
Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) said Thursday that he's leaning more toward running for Senate rather than another term in the House, if he decides to run for Congress again in 2010.
In an interview on Capitol Hill, Castle also acknowledged that several GOP Senators, including John McCain (Ariz.), have been pushing him in recent weeks to make the move to the other side of Capitol Hill. He said a final decision on his 2010 plans would likely have to come by early summer "at the latest."
It seems that since Castle figures he's going to get the race of his lifetime, he's decided that if he's going to run again in 2010 at all, he might as well go out with a bang by trying his hand at the Senate:
Castle said that he met last month with Carney, whom he considers a friend, and knew at that point that the former lieutenant governor was planning on jumping into the House race.
At that meeting Castle told Carney "there's probably a better chance I'll run for the Senate than the House. [But] I said there's a chance I won't run at all."
While Castle believes he can beat Carney - a recent poll showed Castle winning a head-to-head contest - the Delaware Congressman said the race would represent his toughest challenge since his first election in 1992 against another former lieutenant governor, S.B. Woo (D).
While this news would seem to push DE-AL just shy of Joe Cao's seat in Louisiana on the flip index, Castle's entry in the Senate race would create an instantly competitive contest. A recent PPP poll had Castle leading Democrat Beau Biden by 44-36 for the open seat.
In other words, the DCCC's gain could end up being the DSCC's headache.
• DNC/RNC: The RNC seems to win the fundraising month for March, in a bit of a split decision. The DNC reported $7.57 million in contributions last month, while the RNC pulled in $6.7 million. However, $2 million of those Democratic dollars were transferred from the Obama campaign. More ominously, the RNC is sitting on $23.9 million cash on hand and no debt, while the DNC has $9.7 million cash on hand and $6.9 million in debt.
• IL-Sen: Hot on the heels of his $845 fundraising quarter, the new Rasmussen poll shows Roland Burris might want to make some post-2010 plans. 4% of respondents say they will "definitely" vote for him and 54% will vote against, with 39% saying it depends on who's running. 62% think he should resign, with 24% believing he should remain in the Senate. (The poll doesn't test Burris in any head-to-heads.) The poll also finds Jesse Jackson Jr. looking badly tarnished in the wake of the Blagojevich implosion: his favorables are now 32-63. One other tidbit that makes Lisa Madigan's job harder if she runs for IL-Gov: Pat Quinn's job approval is a surprisingly high 61-37.
• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln has drawn at least one legitimate challenger for 2010: state senate minority leader Kim Hendren has announced his candidacy. Hendren has self-funding abilities and a strong base in northwest Arkansas (the traditionally Republican part of the state), which at least gives him a leg up in the primary. Hendren, however, is old (71)... old enough that one claim to fame is that he lost a race to Bill Clinton (the 1982 gubernatorial primary, when Hendren was still a Democrat)... and promising to serve only one term. Lincoln defeated state senators in both her 1998 and 2004 bids.
• NV-Sen, NV-02: GOP Rep. Dean Heller says that "his plan today" is to run for re-election, but he's also refusing to rule out a run against Handsome Harry Reid. (J)
• IL-14: After getting their pants kicked in by Democrat Bill Foster in two consecutive elections, the Illinois GOP may turn to the Name You Know in 2010 -- Dennis Hastert's son, Ethan. 31 year-old Ethan Hastert, a Chicagoland attorney, says that he's "exploring" a run for his dad's old seat, and is already polling his name against Foster in a trial poll. Ethan's previous claim to fame: serving as assistant to Lewis "Scooter" Libby. (J)
• FL-05: Jim Piccillo will be challenging Ginny Brown-Waite in this light-red district. Piccillo has an interesting backstory: no previous political experience, and was a Republican until last year when he was driven away by the tenor of the campaign, but the recipient of a lot of media exposure after being profiled by the NYT in a feature on Florida Republicans abandoning the party. At least he sounds better than this guy.
• Polltopia: Our friends at Public Policy Polling are once again letting readers decide which Senate race they'll poll next. The choices: Georgia, Illinois, and Oklahoma. Get busy voting and then tell us which race you picked in the comments. (J)
Kudos to the DCCC for landing one of their first (very) big recruits of the 2010 cycle:
This morning, former Delaware Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of Finance John Carney filed an official Committee to run for Delaware's lone seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Carney, a Claymont native and long time Wilmington resident who served two terms as Lieutenant Governor from 2001 through January of 2009, issued the following statement announcing his candidacy:
"With our economy in a recession and unemployment continuing to rise, our country and our state are facing unprecedented challenges. To address them, we need strong, experienced leaders who can rise above partisanship and bring people together to address these challenges. I'll be that kind of leader in Congress - one who works with both Republicans and Democrats to move our country forward, starting with a focus on creating jobs and getting our economy back on track."
Carney mentioned back in January that he was considering a run, but I wasn't sure if he'd bite and didn't expect an announcement so soon. Of course, this is great news for Team Blue, and it's good to see that Carney realizes he needs an early start in order to beat longtime GOP Rep. Mike Castle.
Carney narrowly (and unexpectedly) lost last year's gubernatorial primary to Jack Markell (who went on to cruise in the general), but apparently the two have a good relationship. Carney also won his last two campaigns for LG with 62% of the vote, which is exactly what Obama netted here. I'm sure Carney is looking at the model set by Delaware's senior Senator, Tom Carper, who also took out a septuagenarian Republican incumbent in the Blue Hen State. It can definitely happen again.
• NY-20: Well, we know Scott Murphy can count on getting at least one vote out of the huge pile of absentee ballots in the deadlocked NY-20 election: the ballot of the woman he's seeking to replace, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is one of them.
• NY-29: In an example of political chaos theory at work, the NY-20 election may wind up protecting Rep. Eric Massa several seats over. If Jim Tedisco wins, he's out of his current job as Assembly Minority Leader, and even if he loses, there have been rumblings to replace him anyway. His replacement as Minority Leader would likely be Brian Kolb, who, if he took the position, would probably want to focus on that and no longer be the top GOP pick to take on Eric Massa in NY-29. (Other potential GOP candidates in NY-29 include Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks and state senators Cathy Young and George Winner.)
• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter is already defending his right flank with ads attacking ex-Rep. Pat Toomey, in preparation for the 2010 primary. Specter's ad sounds a bit, um, Democratic, attacking Toomey for favoring deregulation, wanting to privatize Social Security, and for the unforgivable sin of having traded CDSs when he was working on Wall Street.
• MN-Sen: The next step in the MN-Sen saga has national implications: governor Tim Pawlenty has to decide, once the Minnesota Supreme Court rules, whether to go ahead and sign the certificate declaring Al Franken the winner (and, y'know, follow the rule of law)... or whether to continue to obstruct Franken in order not to alienate the rabid Republican base he'll need in 2012 if he's going to have any hope in the presidential primary.
• OH-Sen: I know I wouldn't buy a used car from Rob Portman, but he finally has some competition in the GOP primary, and it's a guy a lot of people apparently have bought used cars from. Cleveland-area car dealer Tom Ganley has also entered the race (although he shouldn't be more than a speed bump for the heavily-funded Portman).
• AK-AL: Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell is "considering" another primary run at Rep. Don Young. One negative for Parnell is that, this time, he'd have to give up his LG slot for a 2010 run. But there's also the possibility that the federal investigation into Young may actually yield something in the next few years.
• DCCC: The DCCC launched a new radio spot in the districts of six GOP representatives in Democratic-leaning seats, attacking them for voting against the middle-class tax cuts contained in the stimulus package. The targets are Mike Castle (DE-AL), Ken Calvert (CA-44), Bill Young (FL-10), Thad McCotter (MI-11), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Mike McCaul (TX-10).
• LA-02: The Anh Cao Watch continues! GOP leading lights John McCain and Rep. Paul Ryan (WI-01) were recently seen jawing with Cao, who hasn't yet decided how he'll vote on the Democrats' budget resolution. Would he really defect? And would it even matter? (D)
• Census: The new pick for Census Director has been announced, and if the squealing emitting from Patrick McHenry is any indication, it's a good pick. It's Robert Groves, a Univ. of Michigan professor who was the Census's associate director for statistical design in the early 90s. Groves is a proponent of statistical sampling, which is the main flashpoint in debate over the census. Commerce Sec. Gary Locke has indicated that sampling won't be used for redistricting purposes, but will be used for increased accuracy (for purposes of allocating federal funds, for instance).
John Carney (D): 32
Mike Castle (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 19
Chris Coons (D): 21
Mike Castle (R-inc): 56
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±3.5%)
This poll is already a couple of days old now, but it's still worth a look. After being given a pass by Democrats since he was first elected to the House in 1992, PPP tests Castle against two credible potential 2010 foes: former Lt. Gov. John Carney and New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (Carney has expressed interest in the race, but I'm not sure if I can say the same for Coons). The results are unsurprising: Castle would begin the campaign with a wide lead, but rests just under the 50% bubble against Carney. Tom Jensen takes a look under the hood:
Carney, who seems the more likely of the two candidates, is under performing with Democrats and several key demographics that tend to support the party's candidates. For instance he has just a 48-34 advantage with voters in his own party, and also is at 48% with black voters and only 24% with those under 30. Those numbers would all likely improve a good deal if he made the race.
There's also a matter of name recognition, which is still an issue for Carney despite a high profile gubernatorial primary campaign last fall; a full 35% of voters don't have an opinion of him either way. In other words: Carney has room to grow, and while this would be an uphill climb, he'd have an outside shot at an upset -- and perhaps an even better shot if Castle's campaign skills prove rusty.
Another point worth mentioning about this poll is the rather surprising fact that it was written up by the National Journal's Hotline. In case you're not aware, in previous cycles, the Hotline had clung to a strict policy of ignoring the existence of IVR (a.k.a. "automated") polling, seemingly in adherence to the Beltway belief that automated polling is unreliable and untrustworthy ("the dog could be answering the questions!"). I'm not sure what's behind the editorial change-of-heart over at the Hotline (perhaps the generally solid performance of IVR firms in 2008 had something to do with it), but I'm glad that they've made the decision to join the 21st Century.
If Mike Castle ran, he's in a position to do some serious damage... but we have no indication that the 71-year-old congressman is seriously mulling this race, other than being on the receiving end of a series of pleas from John Cornyn. While a campaign against Biden would force a grueling schedule on a guy who's run into some health issues in recent years, and would undoubtedly attract a great deal of national money, he starts off the race with solid approvals: 54-33.
PPP will release re-elect numbers for Castle against former Lt. Governor John Carney on Thursday. That should be interesting to see, but I suspect Castle will again start off in strong shape.
Outgoing Delaware Lt. Gov. John Carney says in a podcast (go to about 19:45):
It's been difficult to get people to step up to the plate and run against Congressman Castle. I gotta tell you, that's something I'm looking at right now.
This is pretty big news - Carney would probably be our best bet to take on Castle in 2010. (DE, regularly blue for several cycles, went for the Obama-Biden ticket by a 62-37 margin.) Carney also mentions that he might be interested in a Senate run. However, in this interview, he suggests that he's not interested in repeat his bruising 2008 gubernatorial primary experience in a Senate face-off with, say, Beau Biden. So if Beau runs for his dad's old seat, Carney could well take on Old Man Mike.
The Northeast (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island & Vermont) has been sharply trending towards the Democratic party for some years now. Increasingly at a State and Federal level Republicans are finding it harder to get elected in the Northeast, be they conservatives or moderates, particularly in statewide races. And this years election seems certain to thin out their ranks even further.
We now have 7/9 Governors, 14/18 Senators and 51/65 House Districts!
Below the line for a look at the 14 GOP held House Races in the Northeast in 2008.
A quick round-up of last night's congressional and gubernatorial primaries:
DE-Gov (D): State Treasurer Jack Markell edged Lt. Gov. John Carney by 1,700 votes for the Democratic nomination to succeed retiring Gov. Ruth Ann Minner. Markell will face Republican Bill Lee in November.
DE-AL (D): Children's rights activist Karen Hartley-Nagle beat Mike Miller by a 55-34 margin for the right to take on GOP Rep. Mike Castle in November. Kossack Jerry "Possum" Northington gobbled up 10% of the vote.
MN-Sen (D): Al Franken jogged past attorney Priscilla Lord Faris by a 65-30 margin for the Dem nomination against Norm Coleman.
MN-01 (R): Physician Brian Davis schooled state Sen. Dick Day by 67-33 for the right to challenge Democratic Rep. Tim Walz. I guess it just wasn't a Dick Day Afternoon.
NH-01 (R): Former Rep. Jeb Bradley squeaked by former state Health Commissioner John Stephen by a 51-47 margin for the GOP nod against frosh Dem Rep. Carol Shea Porter.
NH-02 (R): Radio personality Jennifer Horn beat state Sen. Bob Clegg by a 40-34 margin for the dubious prize of a GOP nomination in this D+2.7 district. Horn faces steep odds against Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes in November.
NY-10 (D): Crusty Democratic Rep. Ed Towns held back a primary challenge from former reality TV star Kevin Powell, winning with a comfortable 67-33 spread.
NY-13 (D & R): NYC Councilman Mike McMahon easily dispatched '06 candidate Steve Harrison by a 75-25 margin for the Dem nod for this open seat. In what has been the most pathetic offering of candidates by the Staten Island GOP in decades, unpopular ex-Assemblyman Robert Straniere bounced unpopular physician Jamhsad Wyne by 59-41.
NY-21 (D): Ex-Assemblyman Paul Tonko nabbed the Dem nod to replace retiring Rep. Mike McNulty in this D+8.7 district by 39-30 over former Hillary Clinton aide Tracey Brooks.
NY-26 (D): I believe this is called a "murder-suicide". Iraq Vet Jon Powers and perennial candidate (and billionaire nativist industrialist) Jack Davis were trounced by unheralded environmental attorney Alice Kryzan, who won the Dem nod for this open seat with 42% of the vote to Powers' 36% and Davis' 23%. Kryzan will go up against businessman Chris Lee, who is partially self-funding his campaign, in November.
