It's not yet known how much the DNC spent last month, but it had to have been a hefty amount; note that, despite their strong $11.5M month, the committee's cash-on-hand actually dipped by about $2.5M over September, and that their corresponding debt was only lowered by about $600K. (UPDATE: Here's something I forgot to take note of: this is the first time, all year, that the DNC has had more cash-on-hand than the RNC. Nice.)
As for the NRCC, fundraising continues to be their weak link. Despite having the wind at their backs in terms of the national climate, the committee only has $4M in the bank. Compare that to money the DCCC had in their coffers in November 2005 ($10.7M) and November 2007 ($29M). House Republicans who aspire to take back the Speaker's gavel next year have reason to be concerned with such a sluggish pace.
It ain't funny money. Here are the September fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (August numbers are here):
Committee
September Receipts
September Spent
Cash-on-Hand
Debt
DCCC
$7,052,003
$3,043,706
$14,746,361
$4,000,000
NRCC
$3,414,949
$3,298,499
$4,316,993
$2,000,000
DSCC
$5,920,930
$2,504,799
$10,310,148
$2,499,500
NRSC
$3,205,680
$3,128,879
$5,182,334
$0
DNC
$8,204,207
$8,422,672
$14,813,393
$5,026,038
RNC
$9,053,101
$11,099,550
$18,924,409
$0
After two months of trailing the NRSC in fundraising, the DSCC stormed back with a big month, putting a lot of distance between them and the GOP in the cash-on-hand pile. Perhaps the best bit of news, though, is that thanks to a strong July, the DNC outraised the RNC in the third quarter - the first time that's happened in a quarter since 2Q 2004. So that you can see these numbers for yourself, below I'm also included a 3Q summary chart, with overall party totals at the bottom.
It really seems like Dede Scozzafava can't catch a break, huh? First, it looks like Lindsay Beyerstein caught Scozzafava talking out of both sides of her mouth about the card-check provision of the Employee Free Choice Act. Dave Weigel sums up:
In September, Scozzafava's campaign claimed she opposed the "card check" provision of the Employee Free Choice Act. But at the same time, she told the AFL-CIO, in a candidate questionnaire, that she supported EFCA's provision that "would require employers to honor their workers' decision to join a union after a majority of them signed a union authorization card or petition."
In an attempt to nail down exactly where the Janus-faced Scozzafava stands on the issue, Weekly Standard reporter John McCormack got a bit more than he bargained for. McCormack did succeed in finding out Scozzafava's views on card check (she says she supports it - at least, today), but the candidate was remarkably unwilling to answer any other questions. McCormack's persistence didn't exactly pay off:
I spotted Scozzafava later as she was walking to the parking lot, and asked her: "Assemblywoman, do you believe that the health-care bill should exclude coverage for abortion?" She didn't reply. I asked her twice more. Silence.
After she got into her car, I went to my car and fired up my laptop to report the evening's events.
Minutes later a police car drove into the parking lot with its lights flashing. Officer Grolman informed me that she was called because "there was a little bit of an uncomfortable situation" and then took down my name, date of birth, and address.
"Maybe we do things a little differently here, but you know, persistence in that area, you scared the candidate a little bit," Officer Grolman told me.
"[Scozzafava] got startled, that's all," Officer Grolman added. "It's not like you're in any trouble."
Calling the cops on a reporter doesn't seem like a winning move to begin with; getting into an intramural battle with a conservative publication seems even more foolhardy. Nonetheless, a Scozzafava flack emailed Politico to claim that McCormack "repeatedly screamed questions" at the candidate. Other attendees said that McCormack was "quiet" during the event, so who knows. A spokesman for Conservative Doug Hoffman's campaign opined:
If any police investigation needs to take place, it should be of Dede Scozzafava, for impersonating a Republican.
Zing!
Meanwhile, the Scozzafava camp decided to continue its fued with the Weekly Standard, releasing an email exchange between McCormack and another Republican spokesman to TPM about whether Scozzafava would vote for John Boehner as speaker should she win election. (The Scozzafava guy just comes off as squirrely.) The attacks on McCormack prompted Weekly Standard honcho Bill Kristol to weigh in, branding the Scozzafava campaign "desperate."
But really, this is all a minor nuisance (albeit one a struggling Republican campaign can ill afford). The real news for Dede is worse - much worse. The Club for Growth just announced a brand-new $300K moneybomb on ads attacking Scozzafava for (what else) being a "liberal." At the same time, the SEIU just dropped $82K on mailers for Dem Bill Owens, and the D-Trip threw down $132 grand on media buys. This brings the DCCC's total spending to $520K.
Meanwhile, former GOP Majority Leader Dick Armey will campaign for Hoffman, while Susan Collins and Florida Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (srsly?) will stump for Scozzafava. Owens is probably feeling a bit more stoked than the competition about the help he's getting - tonight President Obama held a fundraiser for him in New York City.
And finally, all three candidates agreed to a one-hour debate on Oct. 29th, though it won't be broadcast until Nov. 1st.
In what I think is the biggest piece of recent news, the Working Families Party is endorsing Democrat Bill Owens. This means that Owens will get their ballot line, of course, but it hopefully also signals that the WFP plans to deploy its well-honed ground resources on Owens' behalf. Last year, in a state Senate special election in a very red district in the same part of New York, the WFP sent 25 canvassers full-time and got huge praise all around for helping Dem Darrel Aubertine pull off a major upset.
Competing for the top slot is word that Barack Obama will hold a fundraiser for Owens in New York City on Oct. 20th. Obama, as you know, has shown a frustrating reluctance to personally involve himself in downballot races (for the NY-20 special, the best he could muster was a Biden radio ad). So I take his engagement as a sign that his political team likes Owens' chances, and thinks a win here would be a key score. Of note: Bill Clinton and Kirsten Gillibrand have both sent out fundraising emails for Owens - someone with a lot of juice is making this stuff happen.
Dede Scozzafava scored the NRA's endorsement. Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman had recently gone on the air with an ad touting his NRA membership - so much for that, I suppose.
Had your hopes about Scozzafava's ideology? Think she might wind up as a Susan Collins-type, or even the GOP's version of Joe Lieberman? Wonder no more! NRCC chair Pete Sessions explains it all:
Sessions assured Members that despite Scozzafava's moderate leanings... she will be voting with the Republican Conference 95 percent or more of the time.
The party committees drop a bunch more scrilla on the North Country. The DCCC is in for a cool hundred grand on TV ads, while the NRCC plunks down about 65 large, also, it seems, for airtime. Here's a look at the DCCC's newest spot on the left, as well as a new web video on the right:
For the second month the NRSC has outraised the DSCC, putting them just a million bucks behind for the year. By way of comparison, we were $3 mil ahead in 2005 and a whopping $16 mil ahead in 2007. But perhaps most disappointing to me is the DNC's continual lag behind the RNC. This long-standing state of affairs was supposed to change with a Democratic president in the White House, but the GOP's national committee has outraised ours, $60 mil to $53 mil year-to-date. Again by way of comparison, at this point in 2005, when a Republican lived at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, the GOP was destroying us $76 mil to $38 mil.
A pretty good month for the DSCC and the DCCC, who now both have more cash in the bank than they owe to creditors for the first time since the election. Keep in mind, though, that these nums are a bit pumped up thanks to a modest fundraiser hosted by Barack Obama last month which took in $3 million for the House and Senate committees.
• CT-Sen: Gov. Jodi Rell just signed into law an important piece of legislation (and, in doing so, reduced her own power): from now on, in the event of a Senatorial vacancy, the void will be filled by a fast special election instead of a gubernatorial appointment. The farcical Rod Blagojevich affair in Illinois was apparently the genesis for this new law.
• KS-Sen: Rep. Todd Tiahrt, facing a big primary fight for the GOP nomination against fellow Rep. Jerry Moran, got a key endorsement that will help him out-conservative his red-state colleague, from prominent anti-abortion group Kansans for Life. Moran, meanwhile, got another establishment endorsement of questionable utility to the Kansas electorate, from South Dakota Sen. John Thune.
• NC-Sen: Insider Advantage polled Richard Burr's approvals, and like many other pollsters (including PPP, the messenger that the Burr campaign has chosen to attack), found that Burr's approvals are low and his unknowns are possibly catastrophically high. Burr clocked in at 39/31 approval, with 30% with no opinion.
• NH-Sen: John Sununu Sr. now says that John Sununu Jr. will make a decision (or will have his daddy make a decision for him, more likely) "within a week or so" as to whether or not he'll run for Senate next year. Sr. also says that AG Kelly Ayotte will step aside if Jr. runs, which may be news to Ayotte. GOP insiders seem to think that odds are against Sununu running.
• OH-Sen: Rob Portman, G.W. Bush's former trade rep and OMB Director, has taken on a strange approach to selling himself to voters: that he's a consummate Washington insider, going so far as to say that he knows "where the bodies are buried" (way to write the opposition's advertisements word-for-word for them!). In a state where there's a lot of populist indignation over job losses and outsourcing, emphasizing your technocratic elitism is somewhere past tone-deaf and out in the realm of political malpractice.
• PA-Sen: More signs that the party is finally coalescing around Pat Toomey as nominee: another endorsement from one its sitting Reps., Joe Pitts. (Pitts is probably the most conservative GOPer left in the PA delegation, so no surprise here.)
• WV-Sen: With 91-year-old Robert Byrd still in the hospital, Gov. Joe Manchin sought to tamp down speculation that he was looking into potential replacement Senators (such as ex-Gov. Gaston Caperton).
• IL-Gov: Bob Schillerstrom became the third Republican this week to announce his gubernatorial candidacy. The DuPage County Board chairman had had an exploratory committee open for several months, so this was expected. A 4th entrant, State Sen. Kirk Dillard, also from Chicago's western suburbs, says he'll announce his candidacy on July 8.
• MI-Gov: A third Democratic candidate got into the governor's race today: state Rep. (and former state Senator) Alma Wheeler Smith. Smith, who's the only African-American in the field, also ran in the gubernatorial primary in 2002.
• NJ-Gov: Strategic Vision polled the New Jersey governor's race; no surprises here, as they found Chris Christie beating Jon Corzine 51-39. Christie was also busy yesterday in Washington testifying before the House on the no-bid monitoring contracts that Christie awarded while US Attorney (including to his former boss, John Ashcroft); look for this to become a prime issue in the race (if Corzine has even half-a-clue how to campaign).
• NM-Gov, NM-02: Ex-Rep. Steve Pearce, last seen getting annihilated in last year's Senate race, says he's pushing back his announcement on whether he'll run for governor, for his old House seat, or something else to somewhere between July 20 and July 27.
• PA-Gov: Here's one state where the gubernatorial field is actually managing to get smaller: Lehigh County Executive Don Cunningham opted out of the Democratic primary race (and said that he isn't interested in the Lt. Gov. slot). This may give a small boost to Philly-area businessman Tom Knox, as the Dem side's two biggest-names, Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato and state Auditor Jack Wagner are both from the Pittsburgh area.
• CA-10: Rep. Ellen Tauscher was finally confirmed as Undersecretary of State last night, after Sen. Jon Kyl dropped his hold on her. (She's also getting married on Saturday, so it's a big week.) Tauscher's last day in the House is today, so this means the wheels are now officially in motion for the CA-10 special election.
• FL-12: Looks like the GOP will have a primary in the race to replace Rep. Adam Putnam, depsite their efforts to grease the skids for former state Rep. Dennis Ross. Polk Co. Commissioner Randy Wilkinson has been taking steps to enter the race as well.
• LA-03: Here's a potential Dem contender for the potentially open seat currently occupied by Rep. Charlie Melancon, who hadn't been mentioned in previous discussions (either from SSP or Roll Call or The Hill): Steve Angelle, who heads the state Natural Resources Department and used to be President of St. Martin Parish.
• SC-04: Rep. Bob Inglis is taking an unusual approach to a potentially bruising primary fight in 2010: instead of trying to out-conservative his opponents, he's saying the GOP needs to "lose the stinking rot of self-righteousness." In a Washington Wire interview, he said that the Mark Sanford Experience shows that "This may be an opportunity to extend a little grace to other people, to realize that maybe it's not 100% this way or that way," and referred to the Bob Inglis who was a zealous Clinton impeachment manager in 1998 as "Bob Inglis 1.0," who was a "'self-righteous' expletive."
• TN-09: Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton announced that he'll be resigning his job on July 10 in order to campaign full-time in his primary challenge against Rep. Steve Cohen. Since Herenton has tried to resign (and changed his mind) at least once before, after five increasingly rocky terms in office, this sounds more like a relief to Herenton instead of giving something up.
• DCCC: The DCCC is running radio spots over the July 4 weekend against seven vulnerable House GOPers: Ken Calvert, Charlie Dent, Jim Gerlach, Dan Lungren, Mike McCaul, Lee Terry, and Joe Wilson. They're getting attacked for voting for war supplementals during the Bush administration and now happening to vote against them now that a Demmycrat is in charge.
• The Tubes: Hotline On Call compares and contrasts the mellifluous email stylings of Gov. Sanford with the SMS billet-doux of Detroit ex-Mayor Kilpatrick. This outlines the foundational divide between email and texting: in SMS you automatically sound crazier, but it also prevents you from banging out divinity school dropout diatribes about First Corinthians. (Ben)
• IL-Sen: AG Lisa Madigan is apparently warming up to the idea of running for Senate instead of Governor (thanks to some entreaties from some big players -- Madigan met with Barack Obama at the White House last week). However, according to the Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet, she has some demands: she wants an endorsement from Obama when she announces, and she wants the field cleared of rivals.
That's potentially very awk-ward, though, as state Treasurer (and, more notably, Friend of Barack) Alexi Giannoulias is already in the race, and has been fundraising very well (Madigan is sitting on $4 million, but that's marked for a governor's race and can't be transferred to a federal race, so she'd be back to square one). Giannoulias issued a strong statement today that he wouldn't be "bullied" out of the race, and sought to tie Madigan to party insiders. And even if Obama does manage to dangle some sort of carrot to entice Giannoulias out of the race, does he have the same sort of traction with Chris Kennedy, who also looks set to get in?
• NC-Sen: Here's not the way to rebut polls showing you in bad shape: with a transparently pathetic internal poll. The Richard Burr camp points to a poll that reveals him "winning" (albeit with no specific topline numbers) against SoS Elaine Marshall, but with the head-to-head question asked only after questions as to which of the two would better serve as a "check and balance on the policies of Barack Obama." No results against other interested Dems (like Mike McIntyre) were discussed.
• NH-Sen: More focus today on the possibility of Kelly Ayotte for the GOP Senate nomination. Attorney General in NH is an appointed position, so she's never faced voters before, but that may be an asset; the rest of the state's GOP bench, in Chuck Todd's words, "all seem to have the smell of defeat on them." Meanwhile, Rahm Emanuel will be hosting a DC fundraiser for Rep. Paul Hodes later this month, as Hodes (who banked only $260K in 1Q) looks to pick up the fundraising pace.
• NV-Sen: In an example of the law of unintended consequences, John Ensign's little indiscretions are further complicating the Nevada GOP's efforts to find a suitable challenger to Harry Reid, as insiders get distracted by assessing the fallout. If today is any indication, it looks like the fallout is growing, not shrinking, with allegations of a second affair, and Ensign walking back his initial "extortion" claims in view of the complicated financial links between Ensign and the Hampton clan. For emphasis, if there were any doubt about it, ex-Rep. Jon Porter confirmed today that he won't be running against Reid.
• SD-Gov, SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin hasn't ruled out running for Governor in 2010; she said she'll make a decision by the August recess.
• CA-03: Many insiders seem settled on CA-03 as the Democrats' top target in California next year. Unbeknownst to many, there's a third Democrat in the race against Rep. Dan Lungren, physician Ami Bera, who got in in April... and he's actually been fundraising like a champ, claiming he's on pace to have $250K at the end of June.
• CA-44: CA-44 seems like a good place for a pickup, too, especially now that Rep. Ken Calvert is getting softened up with a primary challenge from his friendly neighborhood teabagger. Real estate broker Chris Riggs said the race would be a "litmus test" and referred to Calvert as a "big tax-and-spend incumbent."
• FL-08: State House speaker Larry Cretul (who just took over the job in March, in the wake of former speaker Ray Sansom's corruption indictment) may already be looking to move up. He's been talking to the NRCC about taking on Rep. Alan Grayson in this Dem-trending R+2 district. This may push out state Rep. Steve Precourt, who said he wouldn't want to share a primary with Cretul. Cretul might still face an uphill battle in a primary, though, as his base is in Marion County, rather than the district's population center of Orange County, where another likely GOPer candidate, Rich Crotty, is mayor.
• MS-01: State Sen. Merle Flowers has decided to forego a challenge to Cold Chillin' Travis (apparently at the behest of the NRCC), clearing a path for fellow Sen. Alan Nunnelee - for now. Others may get in, and in a move reminiscent of the disastrous post-primary period last year, Flowers did not endorse Nunnelee. The big advantage for Nunnelee is that he, like Childers, is from the Tupelo region, whereas Flowers (like Greg Davis) is from DeSoto County in the south Memphis suburbs. (D)
• DSCC/DCCC: Tonight's DSCC/DCCC fundraiser with Barack Obama is projected to raise $3 million, an amount that seems kind of weak compared with the $14.5 million haul from the NRCC/NRSC dinner a few weeks earlier. However, lobbyists were banned from the event, and the GOP haul involves some accounting sleight of hand, as the $14.5 million is the two committees' entire fundraising haul over the eight-week period since early April. In addition, there's a lower-profile fundraising breakfast/"issues conference" planned for Friday morning where there's no Obama appearance but also no lobbyist ban in place.
• Census: It looks like we might break the logjam that's keeping incoming Census Director Robert Groves from being confirmed; it appears he's part of a blanket hold on several dozen nominees, not a specific hold, and Susan Collins is happy with Groves and working with Democrats to get him in place. In other Census news, the tinfoil-hat wingnuts intent on avoiding and/or lying to the Census have a high-profile supporter: Rep. Michele Bachmann, who says she won't answer any questions on her form beyond number of people in her house. Because, y'know, if you told Uncle Sam how many bathrooms are in your house, ACORN might somehow win.
• Voting Rights: An interesting trio of voting rights bills passed committee in the House last week to little fanfare: most notably, the Universal Right to Vote by Mail Act (which guarantees no-excuse absentee voting in all states, something that's still restricted in 22 states right now). Also passed were legislation providing grants to help states provide absentee ballot tracking and confirmation systems, and preventing state election officials from serving on federal campaign committees.
One thing we do a lot of at SSP is speculate, and a favorite topic of speculation is what House districts seem like the most vulnerable ones for each party, and most likely to be pickups. We can go one better than mere speculation, today, though, as the DCCC and NRCC disclosed their own top 2010 targets for a recent piece with National Journal's CongressDaily. In each case, they gave a top tier, and then added some other next-best opportunities.
For the Democrats, according to DCCC exec director Jon Vogel:
District
Incumbent
PVI
DE-AL
Castle
D+7
FL-10
Young
R+1
LA-02
Cao
D+25
MI-11
McCotter
R+0
PA-06
Gerlach
D+4
MN-06
Bachmann
R+7
OH-02
Schmidt
R+13
TX-10
McCaul
R+10
And for the GOP, according to NRCC political director Brian Walsh:
ID-01
Minnick
R+18
MD-01
Kratovil
R+13
NH-01
Shea-Porter
D+0
OH-01
Driehaus
D+1
VA-02
Nye
R+5
VA-05
Perriello
R+5
AL-02
Bright
R+16
AL-05
Griffith
R+12
CO-04
Markey
R+6
FL-08
Grayson
R+2
FL-24
Kosmas
R+4
MS-01
Childers
R+14
OH-15
Kilroy
D+1
Interesting choices for the Dems, suggesting that they're confident about having open seats in DE-AL and PA-06, and maybe even FL-10 (but maybe they aren't confident about Mark Kirk vacating IL-10?). MI-11 is a solid pick based on last year's performance (both at the presidential level and by McCotter), but they'll need to step up their candidate recruitment there. For the GOP, their picks seem about right; the biggest surprise, though, may be that they're touting challenges to the Virginia freshmen above a challenge to Bobby Bright, who more than anyone else seems to face the problem of a drop in African-American turnout in his district in an off-year election.
• PA-Sen: Gov. Ed Rendell confirmed in his usual inimitable style that he's backing new-found Dem Arlen Specter in 2010. He did go out of his way to praise Rep. Joe Sestak but to encourage him to remain in the House, warning Sestak that he would "get killed" (metaphorically, I'd assume) and that "we will lose a terrific Congressman and when he loses to Arlen, he fades into political obscurity." Sestak did pick up his first big-name endorsement, though: MontCo Commissioner and former Rep. Joe Hoeffel, who lost to Specter in the 2004 general election.
• CT-Sen: Here's an inauspicious start to Merrick Alpert's primary challenge to Chris Dodd: the Democratic party committee in his home town, Groton, voted a resolution of support for Dodd. It also issued a pretty transparent slap at Alpert, deploring any hypothetical primary challenger's use of "echoing right wing talking points or by utilizing the conservative media echo chamber to slander Dodd." (Alpert's already done that.)
• FL-Sen: State Sen. Dan Gelber made it official (via Facebook) that he's dropping out of the Senate race, giving Rep. Kendrick Meek a clearer path. He's now considering the AG race against a crowded field including fellow state Sen. Dave Aronberg, or, more interestingly, joining the ticket as Alex Sink's Lt. Gov. candidate.
• MN-Sen: It was Minnesota Supreme Court hearing day in The Senate Race That Won't Die. Five of the court's justices heard an hour of oral arguments. Rick Hasen's interpretation of how the individual justices responded to the lawyers' arguments suggests a quick and possibly unanimous decision in favor of Franken.
• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo did it again -- he publicly denied that he'll be running for Governor and maintained that he "plans" to run again for AG. (He did concede that primaries can be productive for the party.) While the idea of Cuomo giving up an almost-free shot at the governor's mansion seems ludicrous, maybe there's a kernel of truth to Kirsten Gillibrand's cryptic comments from last week that there would be no primary; at some point, if Cuomo says it enough times, we have to start taking him seriously.
• AL-Gov: Hangin' judge Roy Moore made it official this morning; he's running for Alabama governor. He joins four others in the hunt for the GOP nod.
• TN-Gov: Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey officially launched his gubernatorial campaign at midnight this morning (to kick off the third quarter of fundraising). He seems a bit overshadowed by Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam, Rep. Zach Wamp, and Shelby Co. DA Bill Gibbons, but has a solid base of support of northeast Tennessee.
• LA-03: Republicans seem to be making a full-court press on newly R+12 LA-03, even though Rep. Charlie Melancon (who didn't even have an opponent in 2008) seems likelier to remain in the seat than run for Senate. The NRCC has been courting state Rep. Nickie Monica, who has obliged by offering some public criticisms of Melancon. Ascension Parish sheriff Jeff Wiley was also on the wish list, but has taken himself out of contention.
• PA-11: Nobody's taking the heat off Rep. Paul Kanjorski in the 12th. First came news that Lackawanna Co. Commissioner Corey O'Brien and Scranton mayor Chris Doherty were interested in primary challenges; now it sounds like Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta, who came within 3% of Kanjorski in 2008, may be back for a third try. Barletta was seemingly considering the Lt. Gov. slot in 2010, but assuming AG Tom Corbett wins the gubernatorial nomination that job may go to someone from the Philly suburbs for purposes of ticket-balancing.
• DCCC: The DCCC launched an ad blitz against six vulnerable House Republicans today, hitting them with radio ads and robocalls for voting against the stimulus package by focusing on specific shovel-ready projects in each district. Targets are Don Young (AK-AL), Brian Bilbray (CA-50), Tom Rooney (FL-16), Thad McCotter (MI-11), Peter King (NY-03), and Charlie Dent (PA-15).
• Demographics: A new Gallup poll finds that only 11% of Republicans are Hispanics, African-Americans, or other non-whites. Considering that we're a few decades away from a country where whites no longer hold the majority, The Math seems to indicate a Republican Party that doesn't dramatically change its message is on the brink of permanent irrelevance.
• FL-Sen: It's poorly sourced, but conventional wisdom seems to be reaching some sort of critical mass on the idea that Gov. Charlie Crist will announce within the next week whether or not he will run for the open senate seat in Florida. Some say he is a "near lock" to switch over to the senate race.
• IL-Sen: Chris Kennedy, son of Robert F. Kennedy, is now publicly pondering entering the Illinois senate race. Kennedy has never held elective office; he's a developer who runs Chicago's Merchandise Mart. On the other hand, he's been a Chicago fixture most of his life, and has that certain last name. One source says there's an "85% chance" he'll do it.
• CA-Sen: In case there was any doubt, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer has officially announced her plans to seek re-election. (J)
• GA-Gov: State senator Eric Johnson has, with Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle dropping out of the gubernatorial race, switched from running for lieutenant governor to governor. He joins SoS Karen Handel, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, and state rep. Austin Scott in the hunt for the GOP nomination.
• AL-Gov: Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, Alabama's only Democratic appellate judge, is interested in joining the already-crowded field seeking the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. She would have to resign her position (in which case GOP governor Bob Riley would appoint a new chief justice) in order to campaign for governor, though.
• NH-01: Manchester mayor Frank Guinta is the likely candidate to take on Carol Shea-Porter, and he has produced an internal poll showing him trailing Shea-Porter 43-34. Shea-Porter is well-below the danger mark of 50, but on the other hand, Guinta isn't an unknown; he already represents nearly 20% of the district.
• ID-01: Are you there, God? It's me, Brain Fade. Ex-Rep. Bill Sali (R) sounds like he's angling to make a comeback against Democrat Walt Minnick next year. In an email to supporters, Sali says that he's "increasingly troubled by the direction our country is headed" and is asking his supporters to pray for him as he considers his political future. (J)
• SD-AL: South Dakota's Republican Secretary of State, Chris Nelson, has made known his interest in running for South Dakota's at-large House seat. Nelson, who's term-limited out, didn't seem to make this contingent on whether or not Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin ran for higher office, like the open governor's seat (which has been rumored, but doesn't seem to be taking shape).
• CA-47: The GOP is looking to Vietnamese-American assemblyman Van Tran as a candidate against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in this D+4 Orange County district. This very low-turnout district is about 15% Asian and 70% Hispanic.
• CA-26: Businessman Russ Warner, who ran unsuccessfully against GOP Rep. David Dreier in 2008 (and attempted to do the same in 2006, but ran into a snag in the form of a primary loss), says that he plans to run for a third time next year in this Dem-trending CD. (J)
• DCCC: Everybody's favorite new villainess, Michele Bachmann, has been so prolific with the oddball fringe-right comments lately that she's actually getting her own page at the DCCC's website. Imagine that: from backbencher to public enemy #1 in less than half a year!
Last October, Representative Michele "Crazy as Steve King" Bachmann (MN-06) disgraced herself on "Hardball" and sparked a ridiculously successful fundraising drive for her Democratic opponent, El Tinklenberg. I was impressed by the enthusiasm and kicked in a few bucks for Tinklenberg myself, but I was dismayed to see bloggers continue to help him raise money even after he'd raised more than $750,000 and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had promised to spend an additional $1 million in his district. Within a few days of Bachmann's notorious comments, Tinklenberg had more money than he needed to run a solid media and GOTV campaign during the final two weeks before the election.
Note that the DNC figure includes a $2 million transfer from the Obama campaign, which makes their March intake not so impressive compared to the RNC. (Say what you will about Michael Steele, but fundraising does not seem to be suffering too badly under his watch.) Spending tallies for the two Senate committees are also currently unavailable.
Once again the story continues to be the rather portly levels of debt held by the Dem House and Senate committees, which in aggregate are just over three times as large as the combined NRCC/NRSC debts. But the Democratic committees should be able to balance the books sooner rather than later -- especially with a major June fundraiser headlined by President Obama on the horizon.
• NY-20: Paper ballots to be recanvassed will be released after today's court hearing. As of the end of the day on Friday, the state Board of Elections found the race was a true tie, with 77,225 votes apiece. These numbers didn't account for two recanvasssed counties, which would give Scott Murphy a 198-vote lead for the time being, according to the New York Observer.
On a mostly unrelated note, the guy who could still be representing NY-20, John Sweeney, just got arrested for DWI over the weekend... for the second time in 17 months. He's gotta learn to stay away from those frat parties.
• KY-Sen: Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo pulled in a respectable-sized fundraising haul in Q1: $420,000. This may well beat opponent Jim Bunning, who has publicly admitted that his fundraising has been "lousy."
• CT-Sen: The stink lines coming off Chris Dodd seem to be attracting even more challengers. Businessman Jack Orchulli, who got demolished by Dodd in 2004 (66-32), is suddenly looking for a rematch. He'll face a crowded primary, though, but unlike ex-Rep. Rob Simmons and state sen. Sam Caligiuri, Orchulli can draw on deep pockets to self-finance. (If ex-Ambassador Tom Foley decides to get in, he's also a potential self-financer.)
• IA-Gov, IA-Sen: A Des Moines register poll showed surprisingly low re-elect numbers for Gov. Chet Culver, who isn't facing a top-tier challenge (yet). Only 35% said they would definitely re-elect, while 28% would consider an alternative and 18% definitely would not. (Sen. Chuck Grassley, by contrast, can plan on another six years if he wants; he's already at 48% definitely re-elect.)
• AL-07: State representative Earl Hilliard Jr. announced he'll be running for the open seat being vacated by Artur Davis, who's running for Alabama governor. If the name sounds familiar, he's the son of ex-Rep. Earl Hilliard, who was defeated in a 2002 primary from the right by Davis. He'll have a name recognition advantage in a crowded field: attorney Terri Sewell is already running, and they may be joined by Jefferson Co. Commissioner Sheila Smoot, and state senators Rodger Smitherman, Bobby Singleton, and Hank Sanders. This is one of our best opportunities to replace a centrist with a progressive in a dark-blue district without primarying an incumbent.
• CA-32: A late entrant to the special election to replace Hilda Solis has an ace in the hole: she's a former aide to Solis. Benita Duran launched her campaign website today. With the entry of another prominent Latino candidate to split the field, this may help Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu at the expense of state senator Gil Cedillo. Or, on the other hand, with the entry of another woman to split the field, this may work to Cedillo's advantage.
• CO-04: Former State Senator and current Larimer County Commissioner Steve Johnson is said to be weighing a challenge to freshman Dem Betsy Markey. SSP's analysis shows that McCain barely won this district, 50-49, after a 17-point Bush win in 2004. (D)
• NY-19: After drawing a weak opponent in 2008, John Hall hopes he'll be Still the One for NY-19 voters in the face of a stronger challenge in 2010. State assemblyman Greg Ball has formed an exploratory committee. Obama won this district by only 3 points (same as in NY-20), but Ball is a bomb-throwing conservative who seems out of step with the district's Rockefeller Republican roots.
• OH-SoS: Ohio Dems have a strong candidate lined up to try and hold the crucial Secretary of State position, as current SoS Jennifer Brunner goes for the promotion to Senate: Franklin County Commissioner Marilyn Brown. She's likely to face GOP state senator (and former state house speaker) Jon Husted, who just announced his candidacy.
• DCCC: The DCCC is moving aggressively to target the 8 districts in California where Obama won but a GOP representative hangs on. A new study shows that GOP registration has dropped precipitously in these districts, so there may be something more significant going on in California suburbs than just a big one-time Obama downdraft.
Also on the DCCC front, the NY Times profiles Rep. Chris Murphy, a rising star who, with Debbie Wasserman Schultz, is heading the DCCC's Frontline program for defense of vulnerable incumbents (mostly freshmen).
• NY-20: Well, we know Scott Murphy can count on getting at least one vote out of the huge pile of absentee ballots in the deadlocked NY-20 election: the ballot of the woman he's seeking to replace, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is one of them.
• NY-29: In an example of political chaos theory at work, the NY-20 election may wind up protecting Rep. Eric Massa several seats over. If Jim Tedisco wins, he's out of his current job as Assembly Minority Leader, and even if he loses, there have been rumblings to replace him anyway. His replacement as Minority Leader would likely be Brian Kolb, who, if he took the position, would probably want to focus on that and no longer be the top GOP pick to take on Eric Massa in NY-29. (Other potential GOP candidates in NY-29 include Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks and state senators Cathy Young and George Winner.)
• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter is already defending his right flank with ads attacking ex-Rep. Pat Toomey, in preparation for the 2010 primary. Specter's ad sounds a bit, um, Democratic, attacking Toomey for favoring deregulation, wanting to privatize Social Security, and for the unforgivable sin of having traded CDSs when he was working on Wall Street.
• MN-Sen: The next step in the MN-Sen saga has national implications: governor Tim Pawlenty has to decide, once the Minnesota Supreme Court rules, whether to go ahead and sign the certificate declaring Al Franken the winner (and, y'know, follow the rule of law)... or whether to continue to obstruct Franken in order not to alienate the rabid Republican base he'll need in 2012 if he's going to have any hope in the presidential primary.
• OH-Sen: I know I wouldn't buy a used car from Rob Portman, but he finally has some competition in the GOP primary, and it's a guy a lot of people apparently have bought used cars from. Cleveland-area car dealer Tom Ganley has also entered the race (although he shouldn't be more than a speed bump for the heavily-funded Portman).
• AK-AL: Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell is "considering" another primary run at Rep. Don Young. One negative for Parnell is that, this time, he'd have to give up his LG slot for a 2010 run. But there's also the possibility that the federal investigation into Young may actually yield something in the next few years.
• DCCC: The DCCC launched a new radio spot in the districts of six GOP representatives in Democratic-leaning seats, attacking them for voting against the middle-class tax cuts contained in the stimulus package. The targets are Mike Castle (DE-AL), Ken Calvert (CA-44), Bill Young (FL-10), Thad McCotter (MI-11), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Mike McCaul (TX-10).
• LA-02: The Anh Cao Watch continues! GOP leading lights John McCain and Rep. Paul Ryan (WI-01) were recently seen jawing with Cao, who hasn't yet decided how he'll vote on the Democrats' budget resolution. Would he really defect? And would it even matter? (D)
• Census: The new pick for Census Director has been announced, and if the squealing emitting from Patrick McHenry is any indication, it's a good pick. It's Robert Groves, a Univ. of Michigan professor who was the Census's associate director for statistical design in the early 90s. Groves is a proponent of statistical sampling, which is the main flashpoint in debate over the census. Commerce Sec. Gary Locke has indicated that sampling won't be used for redistricting purposes, but will be used for increased accuracy (for purposes of allocating federal funds, for instance).
Chris Van Hollen announced today at a press conference that no House Dem freshman turned down help from the DCCC's Frontline program. Last cycle, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01) initially spurned Frontline but later had the sense to change her mind, which is why she's still in Congress. Meanwhile, the only member who strong-armed the DCCC until the bitter end apparently learned her lesson the very, very hard way:
Van Hollen also said [former KS-02 Rep. Nancy] Boyda left him a regretful voicemail that she told him to play for any other vulnerable member toying with the idea of skipping out on Frontline.
"All of our new members have learned from the mistakes of two in the former class who did not participate," Van Hollen said. "Nancy Boyda has been very clear about the fact that she made a mistake.
"It's a great message, because she clearly felt that not participating was a good part of the reason she failed."
Good, at least, that she is putting herself out there as a cautionary tale for others. The DCCC is quite skilled at incumbent protection. It'll be long time before anyone forgets that.
