Our hopes for a nasty Republican primary are officially dead:
Republican Jon Bruning has ended his U.S. Senate campaign, deferring to the candidate many consider a prohibitive front-runner, former governor and U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns.
Nebraska's attorney general ends his five-month campaign after raising more than $1 million for his bid to replace outgoing Republican Chuck Hagel.
Popular former Governor Mike Johanns (R) has announced that he's resigning from his position as Agriculture Secretary and returning to Nebraska to run for the open Senate seat being vacated by Chuck Hagel.
Sen. Chuck Hagel will announce Monday he'll not seek re-election next year.
Hagel also will tell an Omaha news conference he does not intend to be a candidate for any office in 2008, clamping a lid on speculation he might be pondering a late-inning presidential bid.
In a prelude to Monday's announcement, he conferred Friday with Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.
Later, Hagel gathered his Washington staff together to inform them of his decision, according to sources close to the senator.
Hagel's departure at the end of 2008 will bring an end to a meteoric 12-year Senate ride that propelled him to national prominence as the most outspoken Republican opponent of President Bush's Iraq war policies.
The table is set. Labor Day is upon us, and a number of political deadlines are approaching. Decisions ready to be made. Political heavyweights ready to enter the arena, and some apparently ready to exit.
I've devoted quite a bit of virtual ink to this race, repeating myself dozens of times, going over every single sign, detail, rumor, or press account to get a better picture of what I believe is the most important race in Nebraska - for Nebraska - in 2008.
The evolution of this race - from the initial rumors of Hagel's retirement, to Mike Fahey's potential entry into the race, Hagel's March "announcement," and Bruning's primary challenge, followed by Kerrey's interest in a potential candidacy, has been one of the most fascinating stories of this young election cycle.
In Don Walton's article in the Lincoln Journal Star today, this quote stands out:
If it's ultimately Kerrey versus Johanns after 2008 primary voters have spoken and all the smoke has cleared, Nebraska may play host to next year's premier Senate race.
So say Chris Cillizza and Shailagh Murray in The Washington Post.
"A Kerrey-Johanns matchup would be the early front-runner for the marquee race of the 2008 cycle," they wrote last week.
We wait in anticipation for Kerrey's decision. More after the jump...
A couple of weeks ago, Jon Bruning released his Q2 fundraising numbers, coming in at over $720,000 for the quarter, a very good number for a primary challenger.
Now, incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Hagel, who two weeks ago said that his campaign would be "well beyond" the amount raised by Bruning, has clocked in at $387,000, a large portion of that coming from a May fundraiser featuring Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
The conventional wisdom crystallizing on the ground here is that Hagel is blocking for Johanns - though it's unclear if Johanns will get in the race, and the longer he waits, the stronger Bruning looks.
As we move closer to the fall, expect some movement one way or the other.
(The circus continues in Nebraska. - promoted by James L.)
Tony Raimondo is getting serious about entering the contest for the Republican nomination:
Raimondo, a Republican and the chairman of Behlen Manufacturing Inc. in Columbus, said Wednesday that he was working to assemble a campaign, including interviewing prospective campaign managers. He said he hoped to have everything in place by August.
He has not established an exploratory committee or started raising funds.
Raimondo reiterated that it was unlikely he would run against Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb..
Hagel has said he will decide on his political future later this year.
Raimondo, who was in Washington for meetings of the National Association of Manufacturers, said he believed that Hagel would pass on seeking re-election.
"That being the case, I will be running," Raimondo said.
This is a significant development - a sign that Hagel's being pushed out of the race. With former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub stating that he may run regardless of whether or not Hagel's in the race, it's becoming clear that the Republican field would rather not have Hagel in the race. Whether or not Hagel cares, it's reflective of Nebraska Republicans' attitude right now.
It seems likely, given the timeframes, that we'll get Hagel's final decision in the next two or three months - and shortly after that, a strong Democratic challenger will emerge.
(While I'm reticent to call Bruning the "early favorite", this has the potential to be one of the quirkiest Senate races of the cycle. - promoted by James L.)
As expected, Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) is ready to officially get in the race this week.
It looks like Jon Bruning's days of exploring a 2008 U.S. Senate bid are coming to an end.
Bruning, who has printed campaign posters touting "Bruning, United States Senate," plans to hold a press conference Thursday at the State Capitol to talk about his political future.
All signs - including recent public comments from Bruning - indicate that the second-term attorney general will officially get into the race, setting the stage for a possible primary challenge against fellow Republican and incumbent Sen. Chuck Hagel.
Hagel, who has angered many rank-and-file party members with his Iraq war criticism, has not announced whether he will run for a third term. He plans to make his decision later this fall.
Bruning, however, has given strong indications that he will run since forming an exploratory committee earlier this spring.
He has hired several campaign workers and his campaign office in Lincoln has been busy, raising money and calling supporters.
Bruning has to be the early favorite to get the Republican nomination - perhaps even if Hagel decides to run. The longer Hagel waits, the more support he will drain. His March 12 press conference was a huge strategic blunder.
Meanwhile, the rumblings of a potential Bob Kerrey Senate bid are getting stronger. Outside of Iraq - where Kerrey managed to piss off quite a few Democrats in the last couple of weeks - Kerrey's actually a very good Democrat for Nebraska. What's more, in a race against Jon Bruning, I'm fairly certain that he would win quite handily.
June 23rd, Kerrey is headlining the Nebraska Democrats' annual Morrison-Exon dinner.
In early February, the Guru offered his first Retirement Watch rundown, and in mid-March there was the first Retirement Watch Update. Allow the Guru to present you with the brand new May Retirement Watch Update.
Key Statistic: Courtesy of Swing State Project, since the 1988 election cycle, mid-term election cycles have seen an average of 4.8 Senate retirements per cycle, while Presidential election cycles have seen an average of 7.7 Senate retirements per cycle. With only Colorado's Wayne Allard officially out, statistical trends suggest that we should see a few more retirement announcements.
(Very interesting, indeed. - promoted by James L.)
Things are getting very interesting in Nebraska. Bruning released poll results today showing a 9 point lead over incumbent Senator Chuck Hagel among likely Republican voters.
Attorney General Jon Bruning said Monday he led Sen. Chuck Hagel by 9 points in a survey last week of likely Republican voters in a 2008 GOP Senate primary contest.
The poll of 404 Republicans was conducted by Bruning's pollster, Dresner, Wickers and Associates of San Francisco. In a head-to-head matchup, Bruning led by 47 percent to 38 percent.
If the race was between Bruning and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, according to the polling, Bruning holds a 55-16% lead.
The plot not only thickened in the 2008 Senate race Wednesday night, it threatened to spin out of control.
Attorney General Jon Bruning is ready to enter the 2008 Republican primary whether Sen. Chuck Hagel seeks re-election or not. Bruning confirmed his intentions in a statement released Thursday morning.
Hagel's recent vote supporting a timeline for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and his recent criticism of President Bush provide "significant reasons" to enter the Senate race, the attorney general said.
"Senator Hagel voted with the Democratic leadership against President Bush on the most important issue facing our country," Bruning said.
"His comments (in a recent Esquire magazine article) made it clear that he thinks impeachment of the president is an option," the attorney general said.
"These are drastic and dramatic shifts away from the Republican Party, our president and the people of Nebraska."
Bruning, 37, was elected as Nebraska's Attorney General in 2002, and reelected (unopposed) in 2006. His website is still not Firefox-friendly. Bruning announced on March 15, shortly after Hagel's non-announcement, that he was forming an exploratory committee to run for Chuck Hagel's United States Senate seat... but only if Hagel did not run. Now, due to Hagel's vote on the Iraq supplemental and a significant dissatisfaction among Republican voters in Nebraska - the exact factors that I predicted would land Hagel in Joe Lieberman's position from 2006 - Bruning has decided that he's not going to wait for Hagel.
I certainly didn't expect this to happen so soon. But now that it has, we've got to fight this one. Chuck Hagel may have the establishment behind him, but he's pissed off a lot of Republicans - and now they have someone to unite behind. He'll be running as George Bush's puppet - a perfect target for any Democratic candidate, yes, even in Nebraska. We need to make sure that our nominee is prepared for this. Bruning is not to be taken lightly, but he can be beaten.
Among the other rumors in that article...
Bob Kerrey is not running for Senate. There's been a poll going around (one of my friends got it last week), that's asked a lot of questions about Kerrey, but you all remember the ugliness right before his exit from the Senate, and let's not forget that he's lived in New York for the past six years. We have better candidates than Bob Kerrey.
Mike Fahey's laying the groundwork for a reelection run in 2009, ramping up his fundraising. This shouldn't be any cause for concern, it's been generally assumed that he's going to run for reelection should he not run for Senate, and he's not going to make that decision until later this year.
Stay tuned with us here in Nebraska for any more developments.
