We've never done one of these before - a gubernatorial cattle call. There just weren't enough races last cycle. But this time, we've got a ton, and a very unsettled landscape given the huge number of open seats.
In case you haven't done one of these before, rank the gov seats that are up in 2009 & 2010 in order of likelihood of flipping. (So this includes New Jersey and Virginia.) The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like. If you need some food for thought, check out Swing State's gubernatorial race ratings. Have fun!
We haven't done one of these so far for the 2010 cycle, so now is as good a time as any to start. You know the task ahead of you: Rank the senate races up for grabs in 2010 (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping.
A normal House cattle call (which we have done in the past) would require you to submit a list of seats in order of their likelihood of flipping, but frankly, I find that a bit boring. Instead, why don't we try this: Confining ourselves to the realm of realistic expectations, what is the best possible scenario for House Republicans on election night? In other words, let me put it this way: Where is "the floor" for Democratic gains in the House?
2006 was pretty bad for Republicans, but it could have been worse. They dodged a few bullets and won a fair share of squeakers (NC-08, NY-29, OH-02, FL-13, etc). It's not inconceivable that a few incumbents could hang on again by the skin of their teeth. But looking at the key races, we have a handful in the bag already, and a number that are either leaning or tilting our way. In a wave year, "tossup" races tend to break at a greater than 50-50 rate for the victorious party, so I suspect that Democrats will be wrecking shop in this column, as well. And it's very possible that we'll see upsets in districts that are seemingly "leaning" or "likely" Republican, too.
So even at my most conservative guess, it's hard for me to see Democrats picking up fewer than 20 seats. It's amazing, but losing "only" 20 seats would count as a "good" night for Republicans -- or perhaps "best-case nightmare" for the NRCC would be a better way of putting it. I'm sure that there are some people at the DCCC who would wring my neck for saying that, but increasingly, it seems to me like that's the best that Tom Cole and friends can do right now. And even that is going to be a gloomy night for them.
One last note: that number doesn't include any losses on our side. Tim Mahoney is a certain goner (just resign, dude), and while Kanjorski might still pull things out, he has an aura of political doom around him right now and it would be no shock to see him lose.
If I remember right, it's been a few of months since we had a House Cattle call, although we have Senate ones monthly. A lot has happened in those few months. I think our chances in several strongly Republican Districts have greatly improved, and we've put away some districts that were competitive a few months ago. Most of the Pundits are predicting gains greater than 20 seats, with 30 or more seats likely. McCain is losing ground by the day, and Republicans nation wide are hemorrhaging support thanks to the Economic crisis. Democratic incumbents are in increasingly less danger, with only approximately 5 seats in serious risk. Needless to say, this one is looking like a wave election possibly better than 2006. Go as far down as you want, as we have no shortage of targets.
As we enter the final stretch run of the 2008 election cycle, it's time we took the pulse of the Senate again. You know what to do: Rank the Senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping.
As another month begins, it's time for us to pause and take note of the constantly shifting picture of 2008's Senate races. You know what to do: Rank the senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping.
A lot has happened since we last ranked the Senate races in June, so I think it's high time that we do another one of these. You know what to do: Rank the senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping.
It's been a few months since we've done one of these, so let's see what we come up with this time around. You know the drill: Rank the senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of likelihood of flipping.
It's been a while - I think it's time for another one of these, especially with the entry of Mark Begich into the AK-Sen. So you know what to do: Rank the senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of likelihood of flipping. Have at it!
