Since a few of us are into Canada, and what's happening up there, I thought I'd set up a separate diary for the discussion....
and predictions..... for the 308 seats in the Canadian House of Commons. (Sorry, I'm not providing Tim Horton's doughnuts for the winner.) Right now, I'm projecting (just an eyeball guess, I haven't analyzed the 308 ridings, and I reserve the right to change this until voting starts to close in Atlantic Canada Monday -- 8:30 PM newfie time -- that's 4 PM Pacific daylight time, if I'm translating correctly.)
update 5, part 1, revised projection, based on May 1 Nanos and Apr 30 Angus Reid. I'm surprised that the NDP hasn't continued falling in the daily Nanos tracking, which suggests some recovery yesterday after Layton's rapid response.)
update 7 -- my final predix
Conservative: 142145 144
Liberal: 7557 48
NDP: 7085 100
BQ: 20 15
Greens: 1
(I think Elizabeth May will pull off that district in and North of Victoria. If I'm eyeballing the map right, it's the district that includes Buchart Gardens.)
Inspired by others, I'm also showing my splits by region:
Cons/Lib/NDP/Other
BC 17/6/12/1 (green)
AL 27/0/1/0
Sas/Man 23/1/4/0
Ontario 60/25/21/0
Quebec 6/5/49/15 (BQ)
Atlantic 10/10/12/0
North 1/1/1/0
(end update 7)
One excellent resource for projections seems to be the guy I'm calling the Canadian Nate, aka Eric Grenier. He's getting as much play up in Canada as Nate does here. He has daily analysis and a riding by riding projection, on his site, http://www.threehundredeight.b... PROVISO: Everything in this diary is based on my personal finger to the air guesses. If you want to say that I'm talking out of my whatchamacallit, you're free to do so, The intent of this diary is for fun -- and perhaps for lessons learned that we can use here.
Although you wouldn't know it from Swing State Project (it's a little outside both our coverage area and our expertise), Canada is poised for a national election on Monday night. The last round of polls has hinted at the real possibility of a late surge by the leftish New Democratic Party. Would that actually translate into a plurality in seats in Parliament for the perpetual third wheels? Given the vagaries of the parliamentary system, non-binary parties, and strategic voting, we have no idea, which isn't to say that Canadian prognosticators have much more of an idea either.
When faced with parliamentary elections, SSP's fancies inevitably turn to a slightly different question, though... the system of naming ridings for their cities and/or neighborhoods, rather than just numbering them like we do here. (Case in point: one of the big ridings to watch this cycle is the remarkably cumbersomely-named West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country.) So here's a rainy day activity, one that we also explored a bit during last year's UK elections: suppose we had delightful names for our House constituencies, instead of giving them unimaginative appellations like NY-26. What would they be? You can play the question straight (calling AL-01 Mobile--Prichard, for example), or opt for the silly if you choose. To wit:
This is the second (more serious) part of two posts exploring the political consequences that would happen if Canada became part of the United States. The previous part can be found here.
A note to all Canadian readers: this post was written for the intent of a good laugh, and some serious political analysis along with it. It is not meant to offend, and sincere apologies are offered if any offense at all is taken.
This is the first part of two posts exploring the political consequences that would happen if Canada became part of the United States. The second part can be found here.
A note to all Canadian readers: this post was written for the intent of a good laugh, and some serious political analysis along with it. It is not meant to offend, and sincere apologies are offered if any offense at all is taken.
Governor General Michaëlle Jean granted a request from Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper to prorogue Parliament. This means that the Conservatives will avoid next week's no-confidence motion, which would have tossed Harper out of power. Gov. Gen. Jean could also have denied the request, and then either seated the Coalition government or called a new election after the no-confidence motion passed next Monday.
The polls are coming to a close in the western-most reaches of Canada right about now, where voters have gone to the polls to decide the fate of the first Conservative (minority) government since 1993.
Canadian PM Stephen Harper figured that he could squeeze out a majority government with this fall election call, but he hasn't had the smoothest campaign. In his favor, the Liberals aren't exactly burning down the house, either. If I were a betting man, I'd say he retains his minority -- with losses in Quebec and a few modest gains elsewhere. But we'll see.
UPDATE: Yup, it's another Conservative government -- but it's not yet clear whether he'll have enough for a majority or not.
UPDATE (12:41AM): Well this is something -- in my home riding of Edmonton-Strathcona, the NDP candidate has pulled ahead of the longtime Conservative incumbent by 1 vote with 200 of 223 polls counted. It would be stunning if the Conservatives lost a seat in Alberta.
12:46AM: Wow, NDPer Linda Duncan is up by 164 votes now with 18 polls outstanding.
Shortly after Conservative incumbent Rahim Jaffer gave his victory speech Tuesday evening, his campaign handlers yanked him from the party as it became clear the race wasn't over, that New Democrat Linda Duncan had pulled ahead in the polls.
