North Carolina Rep. Bob Etheridge has decided against running for the Senate in 2010, according to informed sources, a choice that hands Democrats another setback in their recruiting efforts against Sen. Richard Burr (R). [...]
Attorney Cal Cunningham, who also drew some interest from the DSCC, announced earlier this week he also would not run, although it's likely that national party strategists will make another run at him in the wake of the Etheridge decision. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is also running.
The writing for this one was pretty much on the wall ever since we got word that the DSCC wanted Etheridge to bury his announcement at the end of the week. Perhaps Cal Cunningham's decision to pull the plug was a tad premature -- but now he'll have what appears to be the undivided interest of the DSCC. Will he have a change of heart, Kay Hagan-style?
The Democratic field for the race against GOP Sen. Richard Burr just got a bit thinner tonight. Cal Cunningham, a former state Senator and Iraq vet who had been enthusiastically exploring the race for several months, is out of the running:
Cal Cunningham, a Lexington Democrat who had been exploring a U.S. Senate bid for months, said late Monday that he will not run.
The decision is a possible indicator the U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge will seek the Democratic nomination to challenge Sen. Richard Burr in 2010. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and Durham lawyer Kenneth Lewis have already announced they are in the primary.
Etheridge, who represents an R+2 district in the Raleigh area, is expected to make a decision on this race very, very soon. Cunningham seemed pretty jazzed to jump into this race, so perhaps his withdrawal may be a sign that Etheridge is leaning toward a run.
• CO-Sen: Here's an amateur-level mistake from the Bennet campaign: electioneering in the Denver public schools (where Michael Bennet used to be Supernintendo before being appointed Senator). The campaign sent mailings to a school asking for the principal's support and fliers were given to principals at a district workshop.
• FL-Sen: The Kendrick Meek campaign is touting its own fishy poll that says that Meek leads Charlie Crist... among voters who know both of them. The lead is 45-43 for Meek among those 25% of the sample who know who the heck Meek is. In the larger sample, Crist is up 47-31.
• KS-Sen: Kansas Senate news three digests in a row? I'm as surprised as you are. Anyway, retired advertising executive and journalist Charles Schollenberger confirmed that he will run for the Senate. With seemingly no Dems higher up the totem pole interested in the race, Schollenberger may wind up carrying the flag.
• NC-Sen: It's not quite confirmed, but the rumor mill is churning up stories that youthful former state Senator and Iraq vet Cal Cunningham is moving to formally jump into the North Carolina Senate race. SoS Elaine Marshall is already in the Democratic primary field.
• PA-Sen: There's an unexpected fourth Democratic participant in the Senate primary all of a sudden: Doris Smith-Ribner, a recently retired Commonwealth Court (which apparently is one of two intermediate appellate courts in Pennsylvania; don't ask me why there are two) judge for two decades. Her presence could prove nettlesome to Rep. Joe Sestak, by eating a bit into his share of liberal anti-Arlen Specter votes in what's likely to be a close primary. ("Fourth," you say? State Rep. Bill Kortz is running too, and has been for many months.)
• AZ-Gov: He was probably seeing the same terrible polls that everyone else was, and ex-Governor Fife Symington decided to put the kibbosh on a gubernatorial comeback. Instead, Symington endorsed not the current Governor, Jan Brewer, but one of her minor opponents, former state GOP chair John Munger.
• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman scored a victory of sorts with the publication of a story titled "Meg Whitman's voting record not as bad as originally portrayed." It turns out she was registered at several points in California in the 1980s and 1990s, but there's still no indication that she actually voted during this period.
Meanwhile, Whitman's primary rival ex-Rep. Tom Campbell may get a big leg up: rumors persist that he may get picked as California's new Lt. Governor (once John Garamendi gets elected to CA-10). I'd initially thought that was a way of scraping him out of the gubernatorial primary and giving him a door prize, but it could give him a higher profile and bully pulpit to compensate for his vast financial disadvantage as he stays in the race. Campbell was Arnold Schwarzenegger's Finance Director for a while, and they operate in the same centrist space, so maybe Ahnold would do him the favor? (Of course, he'd still have to survive confirmation by the Dem-controlled legislature, who might be reluctant to promote Campbell, who they rightly see as the most dangerous general election opponent.)
• FL-Gov: It had seemed like state Sen. Paula Dockery, who threatened repeatedly during the spring to run in the GOP gubernatorial primary, had faded back into the woodwork. However, she's front and center again today, saying that she's "leaning toward" running and giving herself a three-week timeline (she put off the decision because of her husband's surgery this summer). Another minor embarrassment for her primary opponent, AG Bill McCollum: the co-chair of his campaign, former state GOP chair Alex Cardenas, had to explain that, no, he didn't actually host a fundraiser for Democratic rival Alex Sink. (It was hosted by Democratic partners in Cardenas's lobbying firm.)
• NJ-Gov: Jon Corzine and Chris Christie have sufficiently reduced each other's statures that the state's largest newspaper, the Newark Star-Ledger, took what may be an unprecedented step, and endorsed the independent candidate in the race: Chris Daggett. I still can't see this giving Daggett the momentum to break 20%, but more Daggett votes are good, as they seem to come mostly out of the Christie column. Meanwhile, Chris Christie got an endorsement he may not especially want in the blue state of New Jersey -- from the Family Research Council (who also just endorsed Conservative Doug Hoffman over Republican Dede Scozzafava in the NY-23 special election). Also, Christie is living large after getting an endorsement that may carry more weight, from the New Jersey Restaurant Association.
• VA-Gov (pdf): There's one new poll of VA-Gov to report today: Mason-Dixon, and they come in with a 48-40 edge for Bob McDonnell over Creigh Deeds, closely tracking today's Pollster.com average of 51-43. The poll finds Deeds getting only 81% of the African-American vote (with 9% to McD), far too little, especially in combination with what PPP's Tom Jensen is seeing, as he teases that he's projecting abysmal black turnout of 12% in the coming election. At any rate, Deeds is now touting his underdog status in fundraising e-mails, and is alluding to more possible visits from Barack Obama in the stretch run.
• FL-20: Here's an understatement: Republican candidate Robert Lowry, hoping to defeat Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in this D+13 district, conceded it was a "mistake" to shoot at a target labeled "DWS" while at a Southeast Republican Club gathering at a gun range.
• MN-06: As state Sen. Tarryl Clark seems to be building a fundraising and labor endorsement edge, her primary opponent for the Democratic nomination, Maureen Reed, says she won't follow traditional decorum and abide by the DFL endorsement. Reed (a former member of the Independence Party) says she'll keep open the option of taking the fight all the way to the primary, a reversal of her position from months earlier (although from before Clark got into the race and Elwyn Tinklenberg left). (UPDATE: The Reed campaign writes in to say that the Minnesota Public Radio story that underpins this story is incorrect and that Reed never stated whether or not she would abide by the DFL endorsement.)
• NC-11: One reddish southern district where the Republicans are still at square one on recruitment is the 11th. Businessman Jeff Miller said that he won't challenge sophomore Dem Heath Shuler.
• NY-15: As ethics allegations take a toll against long-time Rep. Charlie Rangel, he's getting a primary challenge... from his former campaign director. Vince Morgan, now a banker, says "it's time for a change."
• OH-17: Republicans may have found someone to run in the 17th against Rep. Tim Ryan: businessman and Air Force vet Bill Johnson, who's now exploring the race and will decide in December. Ryan probably isn't too worried, as he's won most of his races with over 75%, in this D+12 district.
• PA-04: Pennsylvania Western District US Attorney Mary Buchanan is reportedly considering running as a Republican against Dem sophomore Jason Altmire. (Hopefully she isn't violating the Hatch Act too much while she considers it.) Buchanan was one of the USAs who weren't fired in the Bush-era purge (in fact, she allegedly helped consult on the list of those who were fired). State House minority whip Mike Turzai has been reputed to be the GOP's desired recruit here, but Buchanan's flack says that Turzai is focused on winning back GOP control of the state House in 2010 instead.
• PA-11: Attorney and hedge fund manager Chris Paige is the first Republican to take on Paul Kanjorski (or Corey O'Brien, if Kanjorski goes down in the Dem primary). Still no word on whether Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta is interested in yet another whack at the race.
• Supreme Courts (pdf): News from two different state supreme court races? Sure, why not. In Pennyslvania, there's another Dane & Associates poll out, of a hotly contested 2010 race for a state supreme court seat; Democrat Jack Panella leads Republican Joan Orie Melvin 38-35. Also, in Texas, Democrat Bill Moody, who came close to winning a seat in 2006 (better than any other Dem statewide candidate that year), will try again in 2010, and he has an interesting new campaign gimmick: he's going to tour the state in a big orange blimp.
Things are starting to take shape in North Carolina; Elaine Marshall, the state's Secretary of State and first woman elected to statewide office, looks like she will become the first top-tier Democratic challenger to Richard Burr.
Secretary of State Elaine Marshall filed paperwork Tuesday to create a campaign committee to run for the U.S. Senate next year.
"We'll have a more formal announcement in the future," said Thomas Mills, a consultant for Marshall. "We were feeling we just needed to get started in moving forward."
Durham attorney Kenneth Lewis is the only announced Democratic candidate so far. Charismatic former state Senator Cal Cunningham seems likely to get in as well, while former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker and Rep. Bob Etheridge are still considering it.
• MA-Sen: AG Martha Coakley wasted no time in announcing her candidacy for the special election for the Massachusetts Senate seat; unlike the myriad members of the House delegation, she's not waiting to see if a Kennedy gets in. Meanwhile, people are definitely talking about a candidacy by Curt Schilling, retired from the Boston Red Sox. If Schilling runs, he's ineligible to do so as a Republican, though; he's registered as an independent, and he doesn't have enough time under Massachusetts to change his registration to be able to run as an R. (Schilling himself acknowledges he may not be the best candidate, although he clearly is enjoying the spotlight.)
• NC-Sen: Former state Sen. and Iraq vet Cal Cunningham seems to be acting more like a candidate, and he got a big boost from a recent speech to a Democratic group in Charlotte which has gone viral, as they kids say these days. He lit Burr up with zinger after zinger, effectively summing up the anonymous Burr this way: "In 15 years on Capitol Hill you can't name one thing that Richard Burr has done to make your life better, and I can't either."
• NV-Sen: Feeling confident after seeing several polls giving her an edge over Harry Reid, Nevada GOP chair Sue Lowden is resigning her post, presumably with an eye toward a Senate run. Since there are already announced candidates (former SoS candidate Danny Tarkanian), she's resigning as of Sep. 30 to avoid a conflict of interest.
• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): Franklin & Marshall is out with a poll of the Pennsylvania races, although the undecideds are bizarrely large. Case in point, Arlen Specter leads Joe Sestak 37-11 in the Dem primary (with 46% don't know and 6% other). Specter bests Pat Toomey in the general, 37-29, while Toomey beats Sestak, 26-22. (As an amusing aside, Sestak and Toomey had a Specter-free debate at Muhlenberg College last night and then adjourned to a local pub together for a round of beers and further private trash-talking of Specter.) F&M also polled the GOP gubernatorial primary, where Tom Corbett leads Jim Gerlach 15-6 (with 73% don't know!). Outgoing Gov. Ed Rendell has quickly plunged from most popular figure in the state to least popular, with a favorable of 32/53.
• MN-Gov: Former Dem state House leader Matt Entenza recently hired Friend of SSP Dana Houle to manage his campaign for governor. Congrats to Dana, and best wishes to Entenza, who made a wise choice. (D)
• NV-Gov: You know your political career is over when other members of your own party are using your name as a cudgel against their opposition. Minor GOP gubernatorial candidate Mike Montandon issued a press release attacking John Ensign over his alleged recruiting of recently-retired federal judge Brian Sandoval into the gubernatorial primary. (Although presumably the intent was to besmirch his opponent Sandoval, by linking him to Ensign.)
• VA-Gov: One more poll to mention in Virginia, not as favorable as the PPP poll from Tuesday. Rasmussen's latest look at the race gives Bob McDonnell a 51-42 lead over Creigh Deeds with leaners (49-39 without), not much changed from the early August sample of 47-38. The entire one-day sample was on Sep. 1, after news of McDonnell's anti-fornicator manifesto had broken. Speaking of said master's thesis, Deeds is already on the air with radio spots (wisely airing only in northern Virginia) attacking McDonnell over the thesis. In another sign of Dems' renewed confidence in this race, the DNC is pouring a truckload of cash into the race: $5 million.
• CA-50: Dave Roberts, a city councilor and former mayor in Solana Beach, confirmed today that he'll be a candidate in the 50th against GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray. Roberts, an openly gay veteran, has sounded more conservative notes than the other Dems in the primary, 2006 candidate Francine Busby and attorney Tracy Emblem; he recently changed his registration from Independent to Democratic. (UPDATE: The Roberts camp informs us that he is not a veteran.)
• FL-16: The DCCC sounds happy with its recruit to go against freshman Tom Rooney, 36-year-old St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Craft. He also has a compelling backstory, as seen in this recent interview.
• NH-01: Here's a poll of the hotly contested race in the 1st, courtesy of Populus Research (the same guys who polled NH-Sen a few weeks ago and found no undecideds) on behalf of the conservative site Now Hampshire. Carol Shea-Porter leads GOP mayor of Manchester Frank Guinta, 46.3%-43.4% (I'm not sure what's up with the extra significant digits when the MoE is still 4%, but who am I to nitpick?). Guinta previously released an NRCC internal poll in April that had him down 43-34.
• NY-23: Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava seems to have one Achilles heel in the NY-23 open seat special election: her brother Thomas (in the fine tradition of Billy Carter, Roger Clinton, and Neil Bush). Turns out she owns $1 million in preferred stock (and a 3% voting stake) in her brother's troubled company, Seaway Valley Capital Corporation, a holding company whose subsidiaries owe $192,000 in back taxes. She maintains she's a mere "passive investor," although she is COO of an affiliated company, Seaway Capital Partners.
• KY-State Sen.: It looks like Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear is going to continue his stealth plan to dismantle the GOP's majority in the Kentucky state Senate, one seat at a time. Still riding high off of Democrat Robin Webb's recent win of a GOP-held state Senate seat, Republican Senate President David Williams is pre-emptively whining in the press about Beshear's efforts to see that GOP Senate Majority Leader Dan Kelly gets nominated to a vacant circuit judgeship. This move has been rumored for some time, and back in July, the names of two Democrats were floated for a potential special election in Kelly's seat in central Kentucky's Bourbon territory: former state Rep. Jodie Haydon of Bardstown or Nicky Rapier, the son of the late House leader Kenny Rapier. (J)
A backlog of polls have built up over the last couple days, none of which are that remarkable. Let's clear the decks:
• NJ-Gov (pdf): Monmouth finds Chris Christie leading incumbent Jon Corzine 45-37 among likely voters (43-37 among RVs), with independent Chris Daggett pulling in 4%. That looks better than the Quinnipiac poll from Tuesday, but it's a drop from the last Monmouth in April, where Christie led 39-35 among registered voters. Also troublesome: they ask whether Obama's upcoming visit and endorsement will have any effect on how to vote, and 70% say it would have no effect.
• NY-Sen-B: Rasmussen polls the Democratic primary in New York's senate special election for the first time, and finds Carolyn Maloney with a 33-27 edge over Kirsten Gillibrand, although 9% opt for "some other candidate" (presumably Jonathan Tasini, although some might just holding out for someone better). Both have high favorables: Gillibrand is at 49-25, while Maloney is at 44-24. They also looked at the NY-Gov Democratic primary, and found Andrew Cuomo whomping David Paterson, 61-27.
• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP's latest suggests it's time for someone in North Carolina to legally change his name to "Generic Democrat." GOP incumbent Generic Republican Richard Burr leads Generic Democrat only 40-38 (after trailing G.D. 41-38 last month). Turning to actual human candidates, Burr leads former state Sen. Cal Cunningham 40-31 and attorney Kenneth Lewis 42-31. Burr also shows a small uptick in his approval rating, 36-29, maybe the first time this year his "approves" have exceeded the "don't knows" (at 35%).
• TX-Gov: Rasmussen finds that Gov. Rick Perry's lead over Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Texas governor's GOP primary is growing. He holds a 46-36 lead, while he led only 42-38 in May. Hutchison may be having second thoughts about giving up her day job.
• VA-Gov: Finally, Rasmussen polls the Virginia governor's race, and like the other most recent polls here, Dem nominee Creigh Deeds seems to have come down from his post-primary bump and it's settled down into a very close equilibrium with a tiny advantage for GOPer Bob McDonnell. McD leads 44-41, while Deeds was up in their previous poll last month, 47-41. Both men are well-liked; McDonnell's favorables are 50-27 and Deeds' are 49-35.
• FL-Sen: Although Rep. Corrine Brown, who's expressed interest in running in the Democratic Senate primary, has been pretty inactive on the fundraising front, she did get at least one prominent donor to her Senate exploratory account: Rep. Donna Edwards, who gave her $1,000. (Edwards also gave to Rep. Kendrick Meek's account on the same day -- but only $250 to him.)
• KY-Sen: Jim Bunning finally released his fundraising numbers, and they're still "lousy." He raised $285K for the quarter, with $595K CoH, which is less than half of the amount raised by the guy who says he won't run against Bunning in the primary, SoS Trey Grayson (who raised $603K). Both, of course, are dwarfed by Democratic AG Jack Conway, who raised $1.32 million for the quarter and is increasingly looking like the man to beat. (Conway's primary rival, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, pulled in a lukewarm $303K.) Meanwhile, in another indication of Bunning's dwindling power, lots of elected GOP officials seem willing to out themselves as Grayson supporters: Grayson got contributions from three state Reps., city councilors from Louisville and Lexington, and executives from three large counties.
• NH-Sen: One more indicator that there's still going to be a contested GOP primary in New Hampshire: local political insider and long-time friend of AG Kelly Ayotte Mike Dennehy isn't going to be working for Ayotte. He's been working with businessman Fred Tausch on his anti-tax STEWARD organization since last fall, and will continue to do so.
• NC-Sen: Kenneth Lewis, a Durham corporate attorney who's planning to run for the Democratic Senate nomination in 2010, made a big hire: Joe Trippi. It suggests, if nothing else, Lewis plans to spend a lot of money on the race, and maybe also that he's interested in reaching out the netroots (although he may have some competition on that front, if he runs, from former state Sen. Cal Cunningham).
• NM-Gov: If ex-Rep. Heather Wilson doesn't get in, the New Mexico GOP is left with a bunch of third-stringers for the governor's race. Here's a newly interested potential candidate, though, who's at least interesting from a demographic perspective: Susana Martinez. She's the DA of Dona Ana County, location of Las Cruces and New Mexico St. Univ., the state's second-most populous county and one of its Democratic anchors. Running a Latina against an Anglo (likely Dem nominee Lt. Gov. Diane Denish) might also help the GOP peel off some ordinarily-Dem votes.
• NY-14: Roll Call previews the many possible Democratic replacements for Carolyn Maloney, if she follows through on her planned Senate race. On the Manhattan side of the East River, state Sen. Liz Krueger is at the top of the list. Younger up-and-comers, though, include city councilor Dan Garodnick, state Assemblyman Jonathan Bing (both of whom are Maloney allies and unlikely to run against each other), and city councilor Jessica Lappin. On the Queens side, there's also city councilors Eric Gioia and Peter Vallone Jr. (son of the former council speaker), and Assemblyman Michael Gianaris. Karenna Gore Schiff (Al Gore's daughter) has also been rumored, although she told TPM today she won't run.
• PA-06: With Rep. Jim Gerlach gone, the primary opponents are descending on this open seat... but contrary to what I would have expected a few months ago, it's happening on the GOP side. While state Rep. Curt Schroder got in, as expected, he didn't clear the field: Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello also said he's likely to get in. Also, Guy Ciarrocchi, Gerlach's former chief of staff, is interested, and Chester County Commissioner Carol Aichele's name has been floated, although she's already exploring a Lt. Gov. race. On the Dem side, Doug Pike's early fundraising dominance may have locked things down for him, although the Hill says potential heavyweight state Sen. Andy Dinniman is still "eyeing" the race, as well as Manan Trivedi (a former health care policy advisor to the Obama campaign).
• VA-05: One last fundraising tidbit, that apparently couldn't fit in James's fundraising wrap-up because it rounds off to $0. Ex-Rep. Virgil Goode raised sub-Roland Burris totals last quarter: $154. Not the kind of money that suggests a rematch against Rep. Tom Perriello.
• Demographics: Two interesting reads you'll want to check out: one from Ruy Teixeira, on how the rise of the millennial generation, more "seculars," and more Latinos all point to an imminent end to the "culture wars." And also an important 538 piece from Nate Silver, where he somehow got his hands on polling data on uninsured voters broken down by CD, finding that -- unlike voting against cap-and-trade, where their districts tend to be more carbon-reliant and voting against the measure might seem short-term rational -- Blue Dogs are disproportionately from districts that are heavy on uninsured voters and voting for the bill would, if framed correctly, be a big boon for their districts' voters. With the public option still hanging in the balance, if you're represented by a Blue Dog (although, if you're reading SSP, chances are that you aren't), this would be a great piece to forward to them.
• FL-Sen: Oh please, oh please: The Club for Growth's president, David Keating, says that he's very impressed with Marco Rubio, and may run ads against Rubio's primary opponent, Charlie Crist (although he said there's no set timeline for "endorsement"). Politico also points to a strongly anti-Crist new editorial from the Wall Street Journal that, believe it or not, compares Crist to Barney Frank (get your mind out of the gutter... apparently it has something to do with an analogy between hurricane insurance and Fannie Mae).
• MN-Sen: Despite the fact that Tim Pawlenty (not running for re-election, but probably running for the Big Show in 2012) is now answerable to the nationwide GOP base rather than to all Minnesotans, he's not going to obstruct the all-but-inevitable seating of Al Franken. He confirmed on CNN that he'll certify Franken if Norm Coleman loses his Minnesota Supreme Court case.
• NC-Sen: While former state Sen. Cal Cunningham is making some senatorial noises, he says that he won't commit to a timeline on getting into the race, saying only that he'll make a "timely decision."
• AL-Gov: We're up to six Republican gubernatorial candidates now; Bill Johnson, the state director of Economic and Community Affairs, resigned his post on Friday and declared his candidacy. Despite his statewide position, Johnson seems like kind of an odd duck; he was the Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate in Missouri in 1994.
• SC-Gov: The behind-the-scenes battle is heating up between Mark Sanford and his Lt. Governor and possible successor (either via resignation or the 2010 election), Andre Bauer. Bauer's would-be opponents (who would be at a disadvantage if Bauer comes into the election as an incumbent) are already dusting off old lines of attack from his LG primary campaign in 2006, that Bauer is too much of a fast-driving, plane-crashing party boy and not sufficiently conservative. (Bauer's spokesperson does some very strange pushback in this article, seemingly protesting too much that Bauer is merely a "red-blooded American male" and "straight.") The New York Times details efforts by Bauer's camp to exert pressure on legislators to pressure Sanford to resign (which came to public light when Bauer's camp inadvertently contacted an ally of potential 2010 rival AG Henry McMaster).
Meanwhile, State Rep. Nikki Haley has been encouraging Sanford not to resign (which he says he won't do) -- on the surface because she was one of Sanford's few legislative allies even before the scandal, but at this point, more importantly because she's also running in 2010 and would be at a disadvantage if Bauer comes in as a one-year incumbent. She has also issued a statement "fear[ing] for the conservative reform movement" if Bauer takes office. Similarly, McMaster seems reluctant to launch criminal investigations into Sanford -- again, the subtext being that would make Sanford's immediate replacement by Bauer likelier.
• WI-Gov: Here's an interesting rumor: Gov. Jim Doyle may be in line to take over as the next head of the Peace Corps. Not only would this spare us a 2nd re-election run by Doyle, who's been posting mediocre poll numbers, but, assuming he resigns to take the new post, it would give Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton the chance to run in 2010 with a year of incumbency under her belt.
• AL-05: Despite earlier reports that the GOP was happy with their recruit to run in AL-05, businessman and local GOP "minority outreach" coordinator Lester Philip, they've recruited a higher-profile figure to run against freshman Rep. Parker Griffith. Madison Co. (location of Huntsville) Commissioner Mo Brooks said he'll formally enter the race this week.
• CA-11: After first flirting with the CA-10 special election and then flirting with the idea of running against Rep. Jerry McNerney in CA-11 in 2010, Contra Costa Co. Sheriff Warren Rupf declared that he isn't running for Congress, period. Rupf, in fact, basically gave Congress the middle finger, saying his values "don't line up with the fringes of either party and compromising my values or my priorities is a price I am not willing to pay."
• CA-24: The DCCC has been cajoling Peter Jim Dantona, a local political consultant, to get into the race against longtime Rep. Elton Gallegly in the 24th. Dantona proved his bona fides by almost winning a seat on the Ventura Co. Board of Supervisors in a heavily Republican district. (Another consideration is the possibility that Gallegly, who's tried to retire before, may turn this district, which Obama won 51-48, into an open seat if faced with a stiff challenge.)
• CA-50: A Francine Busby fundraiser in a supporter's backyard turned into a bit of a melee when the police were called over a noise complaint, ending with the party's 60-year-old host getting pepper-sprayed and arrested when she wouldn't give the police her name and date of birth.
• FL-24: GOP State Rep. (and former mayor of Port Orange) Dorothy Hukill announced her interest in taking on Rep. Suzanne Kosmas. The NRCC was already highly touting Winter Park City Commissioner Karen Diebel in this race, so it'll be interesting to see if Hukill is doing this on her own, or if the NRCC kept looking after pre-emptive Dem attacks on Diebel's stability may have damaged Diebel.
• MI-03: Rep. Vernon Ehlers, who's 75, sounded a little ambivalent about running for another term in 2010. Roll Call does some interesting dot-connecting: Ehlers and SoS Terri Lynn Land are friendly, and her sudden jump out of the governor's race, where she looked competitive, may have something to do with her getting some insider information on MI-03 being available instead.
• NC-08: The GOP is still wondering what to do about a challenge to freshman Rep. Larry Kissell. Oddly, their first choice is a rerun by former Rep. Robin Hayes, who looked clueless en route to losing in 2008 by over 10 points. (Hayes is still considering it, but also helping to recruit other candidates.) Another possible (and more ominous) contender, who hasn't ruled it out, is Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory, who lost the 2008 gubernatorial race and will be looking for something else to do after his seventh mayoral term ends this year. Union Co. District Attorney John Snyder was also cited as a possible GOPer.
• NE-02: Rep. Lee Terry seems to be under a lot of stress lately, as seen by his recent F-bomb-laced freak-out when trying to cross the street in Washington.
• Fundraising: Just a friendly reminder: the fundraising quarter ends tomorrow. If there's a candidate out there who you want to give some early momentum to, now's the time to contribute.
• AR-Sen: There seems to be a competition among Arkansas Republican Senate candidates to see who can make the biggest ass of himself. It was businessman Curtis Coleman's turn this time; yesterday, in reference to southeast Arkansas (where most of the state's African-American population is), he said you "might as well get a visa and shots" before heading down there. Not content to stop digging his own hole, today he explained that what he meant was "accentuate or maybe even celebrate the enormous diversity we have in Arkansas.... I love Southeast Arkansas and meant it only as a metaphor." Oh, well, if it's only a metaphor, I guess that makes it OK.
• DE-Sen: After Rep. Mike Castle made an inartful comment a few days ago ("They've asked me to run for Senate as a Republican. I don't know if I'm going to do that."), he went ahead and clarified that he isn't intending to switch parties.
• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio picked up a potentially useful endorsement in the GOP Senate primary: Rep. Jeff Miller, who represents FL-01 in the dark-red Panhandle, an area of the state where Rubio is little known so far but where his hard-right conservatism is likely to play well. Miller endorsed Charlie Crist in the 2006 governor's primary.
• MO-Sen: Here's another minor tea leaf that former Treasurer Sarah Steelman won't be getting into the Senate primary: prominent Missouri political operative Gregg Keller, who was reportedly set to work for Steelman, instead went to Connecticut to manage Tom Foley's CT-Sen campaign.
• NC-Sen: Here's some good news out of North Carolina: former state Senator and Iraq vet Cal Cunningham seems to be moving to get into the Senate race for the Dems. Cunningham described his efforts to put together a campaign in a post to his Facebook supporters group.
• NH-Sen: With establishment figures dithering on whether to get into the GOP Senate primary, businessman Fred Tausch is jumping into the void, launching a TV spot promoting his fiscal-discipline advocacy group, STEWARD of Prosperity. He says he's interested in the Senate race, although not ready to publicly declare.
• VT-Sen: It wasn't a done deal that 69-year-old Pat Leahy would be back for another term in the Senate, but he confirmed yesterday he'll be back for a seventh term.
• AZ-Gov: Former Democratic state party chair and 2006 Senate candidate Jim Pederson said today that he won't run for Arizona governor, despite earlier statements of his interest. This leaves AG Terry Goddard (who has said he "intends" to run) with a pretty clear shot at the Dem nomination; it remains unclear if Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, armpit-deep in a frustrating fight with her GOP-held legislature, will run for a full term.
• CA-Gov: Rep. Loretta Sanchez announced she won't be running for Governor but will seek another term in the House; she naturally became a topic of conversation with LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa's exit from the race, leaving the Dem field without a SoCal, Hispanic, or female candidate. On the GOP side, Rep. John Campbell's defection from the Steve Poizner camp to the Meg Whitman camp was just the tip of the iceberg: three state legislators and a county chair just flipped.
• SC-Gov: State Rep. Nikki Haley has been the subject of breathless conservative hype over the past few months as the anti-spending candidate to replace Mark Sanford (and also Sanford's preferred choice for the job, if you read the tea leaves). See this pre-Sanford-implosion Politico piece from earlier this week to see what I mean. But with revelations that Sanford hasn't been able to keep it in his pants or on this continent (a snap SUSA poll finds 60% of state residents think he should resign, with only 34% saying stay in office), Haley has moved to distance herself from Sanford, scrubbing all traces of him from her website where he was once prominently featured. (J)
• UT-Gov: Soon-to-be Gov. Gary Herbert looks like he won't have a free ride at the nominating convention in the 2010 special election. Univ. of Utah professor Kirk Jowers, who reportedly had been offered the role as Herbert's Lt. Gov., is the subject of a draft movement and may challenge Herbert for the top job instead -- with Josh Romney (son of Mitt) as his LG. Rep. Jason Chaffetz appears to be in their corner.
• ID-01: Idaho pollster Greg Smith tested the approvals of local politicians, and Idahoans just like their politicians, gosh darn it, even that Demmycrat Walt Minnick (whose approval is 47/20, good news heading into a potentially very tough re-election). Governor Butch Otter has the most troublesome numbers, and even he's at 47/35.
• IL-07: Here's a potential open seat, although at D+35, not one we're going to have to sweat very hard. Rep. Danny Davis, who had been vaguely associated with the IL-Sen primary, now looks to be taking concrete steps toward running for President of the Cook County Board, forming an exploratory committee. Davis was runner-up in that race three years ago. This time, he says he has a poll giving him a 7-point lead over county commissioner Forrest Claypool, who was presumptive frontrunner but pulled out of the race last week. With over 5 million constituents, it seems like a pretty good gig.
• NY-23: New York county Democratic leaders set an initial timeline for finding a nominee for the upcoming special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. July 17 is the deadline for declaring interest.
• PA-03: With no GOPer left to challenge freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, Elaine Surma formed an exploratory committee to consider a bid. With no elective track record, she's a senior agent with the state Attorney General's office.
• PA-15: Bethlehem mayor John Callahan's seeming change of heart about running against Rep. Charlie Dent comes after having been called by Joe Biden last week with promises of White House support in the race.
• VA-02, VA-05: Roll Call looks at the prospects for the Virginia freshmen. Ex-Rep. Virgil Goode is apparently close to making a decision on whether to try to wrest the 5th back from Rep. Tom Perriello, with state Del. Rob Bell or state Sen. Rob Hurt as backup plans. In the 2nd, none of the local elected GOP officials seem to be moving toward the race, and the GOP field is more a hodge-podge of various businessmen/veterans: Chuck Smith, Ed Maulbeck, Ben Loyola, and possibly Scott Rigell.
Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/19-21, "North Carolina voters," Shuler trendlines from January). I've put each of the Dem candidates' favorables in brackets.
Elizabeth Edwards (D): 35
Richard Burr (R-inc): 46
Walter Dalton (D): 29 [24-29]
Richard Burr (R-inc): 48
Dan Blue (D): 33 [24-31]
Richard Burr (R-inc): 44
Richard Moore (D): 34 [36-25]
Richard Burr (R-inc): 47
Bob Etheridge (D): 31 [31-27]
Richard Burr (R-inc): 47
Cal Cunningham (D): 34 [46-16] ‡
Richard Burr (R-inc): 42
(MoE: ±3.5%)
‡ Cal Cunningham is a one-term state Senator & Iraq veteran (more here). PPP tested him using a positive two-sentence bio as a lead-in, to compensate for his otherwise low name rec - hence the high favorables. A February poll without the bio showed Cunningham with a 10-23 approval rating (sort of odd, huh?), but still holding Burr to a 46-27 margin.
Pulling together all the information we have, here's the state of the race: when Roy Cooper decided not to run Democrats lost the only candidate who would have made this an instant tossup. But Richard Burr is still in a vulnerable position pretty comparable to where Elizabeth Dole found herself at this time two years ago. But whoever the Democratic standard bearer ends up being will have to be molded into a formidable candidate, as Hagan was, rather than just inherently starting out as one.
Now Democrats are going to have to make a choice - do they get a Shuler or McIntyre who have big bank accounts and a good position from which to raise more or do they go more towards a Cunningham who might need more help raising money but can run as an outsider in an election cycle where not having any Washington taint could be a very good thing? It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
With NC Attorney General Roy Cooper formally declining the opportunity to smack GOP Sen. Richard Burr in 2010, the list of possible contenders to take his place on the ballot is fairly lengthy. One possible contender, former state Senator Cal Cunningham, is already talking about running:
Former state Sen. Cal Cunningham of Lexington, who recently returned from duty in Iraq, is considering challenging Republican Sen. Richard Burr next year.
Cunningham, a 35-year old attorney, has been traveling around the state during the past two months speaking to Democratic groups, Rob Christensen reports.
"I'm having conversations with friends and fellow Democrats," Cunningham said. "North Carolina has a lot of needs right now. We have rising unemployment and a couple of wars. We need someone in Washington who is energetic and who offers compelling leadership."
The News & Observer has more on Cunningham's background:
Cunningham, a captain in the Army reserves and a paratrooper, returned from Baghdad in December after spending a year proscuting contractor abuse in Iraq. In 2005, he also served a year at Fort Bragg.
At age 27, he was elected to serve one term in the state Senate in 2000. But he did not seek re-election after he was thrown into a heavily Republican district.
His wife, Elizabeth, was deputy campaign manager for D.G. Martin's unsuccessful bid for the Democratic U.S. Senate nomination in 1998.
Cunningham was president of the UNC student body and later earned an advanced degree from the London School of Economics. He is a litigator with Kilpatrick Stockton in Winston-Salem.
Not a bad profile, though it's a shame that his career in elected office was cut short. His professional profile is available here. Undoubtedly, though, Cunningham is just one of many Democrats in North Carolina giving the race a long look. (N&O has much more on that here.) Hopefully the field will sort itself out over the next couple of months.
