Google Ads


Site Stats

CO-St. House

SSP Daily Digest: 11/19

by: Crisitunity

Fri Nov 19, 2010 at 3:04 PM EST

AK-Sen: In the words of Bart Simpson, "he's like some kind of non-giving-up guy!" Joe Miller just keeps contesting the Alaska Senate race despite rigor mortis having started to set in. Today he added another legal action to the already-long (and expensive) tally, asking a federal judge for an injunction stopping state officials from certifying the election. Miller's latest gripe is that the state started the count a week earlier than scheduled, forcing him to pull together a volunteer ballot-challenging team on short notice, meaning that "an indeterminate number" of misspelled ballots got through. (That number would have to be several thousand for this challenge to have any hope of succeeding.) This, of course, has to work in parallel to a separate suit, still in process, where he's trying to force the state from counting any misspelled ballots.

CT-Sen: Since she apparently has absolutely nothing better to do with her piles of money, Linda McMahon is actually running a post-election "thank you" ad. Speculation is rising that she's trying to stay top-of-mind for 2012, where there's the possibility of running against Joe Lieberman (an option she said she wasn't taking off the table). The article also cites increased buzz about Ted Kennedy Jr. running for the Dems. Rep. Chris Murphy is known to be interested too, and soon-to-be-ex-SoS Susan Bysiewicz, despite a year of nonstop bungling, is also in the mix.

VA-Sen: Here are a couple more Republican names who are checking out the Senate race in Virginia. One is an establishment figure, Prince William Co. Chairman Corey Stewart, but the other is Bert Mizusawa, a retired Army Reserve brigadier general whom you might remember as the more-conservative opposition from the VA-02 GOP primary this year, who lost to Rep.-elect Scott Rigell. Also, the Tom Perriello buzz (in the event of Jim Webb not running again) seems to have gotten loud enough that the Washington Post has taken notice.

NY-01, NY-25: The race in the 1st is down into the double digits, as Tim Bishop made up more ground yesterday as absentee ballots counted in his home turf of Southampton started reporting. Randy Altschuler's lead is 81 votes, representing a gain of more than 200 for Bishop (although Altschuler's camp says they did "better than expected" in Dem areas that reported, and that the more GOP-friendly Brookhaven has yet to report). In the 25th, Dan Maffei upped his percentage of the absentee votes coming in from the first half of votes from Onondaga County, enough to gain 521 votes, now trailing Ann Marie Buerkle by 303. He'll still need to maintain that pace to win, though, as more GOP-friendly Wayne County has yet to report.

DSCC: Harry Reid is now saying he's "in no hurry" to fill the still-empty DSCC slot, but Beltway CW seems to find the fickle finger pointing more clearly in Patty Murray's direction. With Michael Bennet having pretty thoroughly declined, Reid and the White House are now making a "full court press" on Murray (who also helmed the DSCC's 2002 cycle).

CO-St. House: 197 votes is all that kept Dems from controlling the trifecta in Colorado for 2012. The last outstanding race in the state House was concluded, with Republican Robert Ramirez beating Dem incumbent Debbie Benefield by 197, flipping the state House to the GOP by a 33-32 margin. (Dems control the state Senate and the governor's chair.)

IA-St. Sen.: It's been two and a half weeks since an election, and you're already hungry for another one? Well, we've already got one on tap coming up very soon: the legislative special election to fill Lt. Gov.-elect Kim Reynolds' seat in SD-48, scheduled for Jan. 4. It's light-red turf in Iowa's rural southwestern corner, though, so likely GOP nominee Joni Ernst (the Montgomery Co. Auditor) is probably the favorite. The local parties will select their nominees next week; despite losing the state House, Dems still control the state Senate.

Redistricting: Eight members of the new California citizens' redistricting commission have been named (one of whom is a former US Census director). If you make unsupported assumptions based on their professions, it looks like we may have done well with the "unaffiliated" picks. Six more will be added before work begins.

Discuss :: (92 Comments)

SSP Daily Digest: 11/11

by: Crisitunity

Thu Nov 11, 2010 at 2:59 PM EST

AK-Sen: Joe Miller made a drive toward the hoop with his attempt to get an injunction to force the state to stop counting write-in ballots that weren't spelled precisely "Lisa Murkowski," but a federal judge stuffed that back in his face late yesterday, denying the immediate injunction and saying there's no risk of irreparable harm; the question, of course, will continue in the courts, just at a more leisurely pace while the count goes on. As for the actual counting (which began yesterday, and went through about 20% of the total), things have seemed to continue on pace for Murkowski to hold on. 89% of the write-ins were unchallenged for Murkowski. 8.5% of the ballots were challenged by Miller observers, but only 1.4% of ballots were successfully challenged. Only 164 of the 19,203 ballots analyzed had write-ins other than Murkowski (including, amusingly, two people who wrote in Joe Miller). Roll Call points out that Murkowski would be on track to win even if Miller's injunction succeeds, considering what a small percentage of ballots are being challenged in the first place, which makes it look like Murkowski's remarkably painstaking campaign of instructing people how to spell her name paid off.

IN-Sen: If there's a Republican who's guilty of the crimes of attempting to legislate and not punching Dems in the groin at every opportunity, it's Richard Lugar. Between that and his age, he's at great risk of a teabagging in 2012 (assuming he doesn't retire), and there's already a line forming of potential primary rivals expressing interest, including state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, state Sen. Mike Delph, and 2010 primary loser Don Bates.

MA-Sen: Here's another piece handicapping potential challengers to Scott Brown; while most of the names are familiar (Mike Capuano, plus assorted other Kennedys and Reps.), it adds one more to the mix that I haven't heard but certainly seems plausible: Gov. Deval Patrick, whose stock has risen lately with a surprisingly comfortable re-election.

VA-Sen: Beltway Kremlinologists are analyzing Jim Webb's pronouncements, notably ambivalent about another Senate run, and announcing that he's sounding even iffier now. While George Allen seems to have the inside track on the GOP nomination, filling a hole left by Webb would be a big question mark for the Dems. Ex-Gov and DNC chair Tim Kaine seems like the likeliest bet, although Tom Perriello also gets a mention.

FL-22: Somehow I suspect someone from GOP leadership paid a visit to Allen West and gave him a refresher course in political discipline, as he abruptly reversed course and decided that his bomb-throwing best friend from the right-wing radio world, Joyce Kaufman, won't be his chief of staff. As we talked about yesterday, the main problem might not be her long track record of outrageous statements but the Ethics and FCC problems that might result if she kept her day job too.

NY-29: While everyone knows that Joe Manchin, Chris Coons, and Mark Kirk are gaining early entry to the Senate for the lame duck session (because of the special election status of their elections), there's also one new House member also getting that privilege. Recall that David Paterson bumped the special election to replace Eric Massa all the way back to November to coincide with the general election, so Tom Reed is set to be sworn in next week too (gaining the seniority edge over his myriad fellow GOP freshmen). (UDPATE: Several folks have pointed out that Marlin Stutzman, just elected to IN-03 in a dual special/general in the wake of Mark Souder's resignation, also gets the same treatment next week.)

DSCC: The quest for a DSCC leader just goes on, as no one wants to be left holding that flaming bag of dog doo. Al Franken took himself officially out of the running. Even Chuck Schumer, who everyone regards as the fallback position if no one else steps up, is still adamant that he isn't going to take it either.

Money: I don't think the Dems could have salvaged the House even if it hadn't been for the huge last-minute outlays of advertising cash from American Crossroads and assorted other 527s, but it certainly helped the GOP run up the score in the close, late-breaking races. At any rate, it's good to see that at least someone on Team Blue is recognizing that we're behind the 8-ball on the dark money front, and at least for the short term it's a can't-beat-'em-join-'em scenario. David Brock from Media Matters is on the case, trying to pull such a mega-527 together to start corralling high-dollar Dem donors.

CO-St. House: This is a pleasant surprise: the Dems may yet be able to hold onto the state House in Colorado (which would let them keep the trifecta, if that happened). The GOP is claiming a 33-32 majority right now, but the race in HD-29, where incumbent Debbie Benefield apparently lost to Robert Ramirez by 208 votes, is at least back on the table with 687 more votes discovered that need to be counted. (Of course, it's worth being skeptical about her taking nearly 2/3s of those outstanding votes.)

NY-St. Sen.: Here's the situation with the Senate in New York, where it may be weeks before we know who's in charge. The GOP has paper-thin leads in two Dem-held seats: Mark Grisanti leads Antoine Thompson in a Buffalo-area seat, while Jack Martins leads Craig Johnson in northern Nassau County. (There's also one other race not yet called, where incumbent Dem Suzi Oppenheimer still leads.) Dems have asked for recounts in both the races where they're trailing, so this is apt to drag on. If the leads hold, the GOP will retake control the Senate 32-30 (assuming Grisanti cooperates with them, which sounds like it may not be a done deal). If Dems turn one around, the clusterfudge gets even nuttier, as it'll be a 31-31 tie, which should let Dem Lt. Gov. Robert Duffy be the tiebreaker but promises endless litigation over just what sort of powers the still ill-defined LG position even has.

WATN?: Three different names from Florida are considering their options today. One is Jim Davis, not the creator of Garfield but rather the five-term ex-Rep. who left the House in 2006 to run for Governor (and lost to Charlie Crist), who's now looking for a political third act as Tampa mayor. The election to replace termed-out Pam Iorio will be held in March. Another name is Rod Smith, a former state Sen. whom you might remember losing the 2006 Dem gube primary to Davis, and losing in 2010 as Alex Sink's running mate; he's set to take over as Dem state party chair, as Karen Thurman looks like she's finally getting put out to pasture after another terrible cycle. Finally, there's Alan Grayson, who's going to need a new job in a few months; he says he's likely to run for something again someday, not wanting to waste the large supporter base online that he built over the last few years.

Polltopia: Scot Reader has a very interesting look at the success rates for internal polls this cycle (of which there were an unprecedented number released). He finds that GOP internal pollsters performed better than Dem internal pollsters this cycle, to the extent that firms like POS were pretty close to the mark. (Although it's worth noting that, while public polling of Senate and Gov races was close to the mark -- with the exception of Nevada, where the internal polling was much closer -- it also tended to underestimate Republican support in the House, in the end.) If his name sounds familiar, he's the guy behind the Polltrack twitter feed (now renamed Pollmaven), which we strongly urge you to follow.

Discuss :: (246 Comments)

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox