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Redistricting California 2010, v2.0: Let Only 6 Republicans Be Safe

by: MattTX2

Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 10:34 PM EST

Taking into account some suggestions and comments, I made some changes to my previous attempt at redistricting California. I conceded an additional 2 seats to the GOP, which concomitantly makes a number of other seats more strongly Democratic. The additional 2 safe GOP seats are CA-4 and CA-48. Here's what version 2 looks like, overall:

Statewide Map, Version 2

For comparison, here is Version 1:

Statewide Map, Version 1

There's More... :: (37 Comments, 3053 words in story)

Redistricting California 2010: Let Only 4 Republicans Be Safe

by: MattTX2

Sat Oct 24, 2009 at 11:03 AM EDT

I decided to try my hand at redistricting California's Congressional districts for 2010-2012, using Dave's Redistricting App. After playing around with it a bit, here's what the map I came up with looks like overall:

Here's the 2008 Obama/McCain vote in California, on the precinct level:

Read on for a detailed analysis and breakdown:

There's More... :: (75 Comments, 13844 words in story)

California Voter Registration changes since the election

by: californianintexas

Fri May 22, 2009 at 1:16 PM EDT

I've been saving the changes in registration differences in the competitive districts that I track in my regular registration number updates. Here I will show the changes in registration going from the last numbers before the 2008 election to the latest numbers released a few days ago. Here they are in tabulated form. And for the congressional districts, in addition to the 8 Obama-Republican districts, I tossed in CA-04, because the House race there was very close in spite of the considerable Republican advantage in registration and the presidential race, and CA-46, the district of McCain's closest win of the 11 McCain districts and the only one that he won with less than 50%.

Cross-posted at Calitics.

Numbers are over the flip.

There's More... :: (3 Comments, 280 words in story)

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 - May 2009 Special Election Edition

by: californianintexas

Sun May 17, 2009 at 10:20 PM EDT

With the release of the new registration numbers, and a couple of special elections just around the corner, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts, as well as the eight Obama-Republican districts. The Secretary of State's website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each district.

Breaking news: We now have a (albeit slight) registration advantage in AD-10!

And an edit: I am including CA-04 in the list because of McClintock's less-than-1% win, even though the presidential race and registration gap are not particularly close.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin2008 Result
CA-03
Dan Lungren
37.73%
39.58%
R+1.85
O+0.5
CA-04
Tom McClintock
31.14%
45.83%
R+14.69
M+10.1
CA-24
Elton Gallegly
35.83%
41.82%
R+5.99
O+2.8
CA-25
Buck McKeon
37.77%
39.29%
R+1.52
O+1.1
CA-26
David Dreier
35.67%
40.50%
R+4.83
O+4.0
CA-44
Ken Calvert
34.63%
42.40%
R+7.77
O+0.9
CA-45
Mary Bono Mack
37.81%
42.08%
R+4.27
O+4.6
CA-48
John Campbell
29.40%
44.77%
R+15.37
O+0.7
CA-50
Brian Bilbray
31.40%
40.27%
R+8.87
O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip...

There's More... :: (4 Comments, 457 words in story)

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 - April 2009 edition

by: californianintexas

Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 12:29 AM EDT

With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. The Secretary of State's website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each districts.

I am also tacking on the eight districts that are our top targets in 2010: CA-03, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-50.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

DistrictIncumbentDEMGOPMargin2008 Result
CA-03
Dan Lungren
37.72%
39.63%
R+1.91
O+0.5
CA-24
Elton Gallegly
35.84%
41.88%
R+6.04
O+2.8
CA-25
Buck McKeon
37.72%
39.35%
R+1.63
O+1.1
CA-26
David Dreier
35.64%
40.56%
R+4.92
O+4.0
CA-44
Ken Calvert
34.70%
42.38%
R+7.68
O+0.9
CA-45
Mary Bono Mack
37.97%
41.96%
R+3.99
O+4.6
CA-48
John Campbell
29.41%
44.87%
R+15.46
O+0.7
CA-50
Brian Bilbray
31.38%
40.36%
R+8.98
O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip...

There's More... :: (3 Comments, 464 words in story)

Are we a Party of Defeat?

by: duffman

Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 8:21 PM EDT

David Horowitz is a Republican activist who travels from college campus to college campus, giving inflammatory lectures about how liberals hate America and Muslims want to kill you. He recently published a new book called Party of Defeat: How Democrats and Radicals Undermined America's War on Terror Before and After 9/11. The authors of this book proudly advertise it right here. As you can see, it has a white flag on the cover, it is about as offensive and inflammatory as you can get.
There's More... :: (5 Comments, 175 words in story)

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