SSP House Race Ratings Changes: 10/27

by: James L.

Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 12:46 AM EDT

We made these changes on Friday night, but haven't had the opportunity to post our full write-ups until now. Here goes:

Essentially, Republicans ceded this race the moment that former Arizona state Senate President Ken Bennett declined to run for the open seat of "retiring" GOP Rep. Rick Renzi. In his place, Republicans are running Arizona Mining Association President Sydney Hay, a truly D-grade candidate whose sharply right-wing views would make Randy Graf smile with pride. Most starkly, Hay has only raised $363,000 compared to Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick's $1.68 million. With the DCCC spending liberally against Hay, the end result is poised to look ugly for the GOP here. (James L.)

This is a case of good candidate, wrong year for the Republicans: they convinced state senate president Tim Bee to run against freshman Democrat Gabrielle Giffords in this R+1 district. Bee came in with something of a moderate image, but that was frittered away through a public tussle with Jim Kolbe, the Republican occupant of this seat prior to Giffords (probably over Bee's support for a gay marriage amendment to the Arizona constitution) and having to have a Bush visit to help with fundraising.

In a normal year, the GOP could have made a strong race of it, even with these few unforced errors. Given the broader trends this year, though, and the GOP's more pressing problems on defense, Bee simply got washed away... and acknowledging their chances, the NRCC just pulled out of this race. (Crisitunity)

Hopes have been high for Charlie Brown's second run at this seat in the Sacramento suburbs, after he narrowly lost to corrupt John Doolittle in 2006. Unfortunately (for Brown's chances), Doolittle subsequently retired, meaning that Brown would instead be running in 2008 against 'generic R' in a dark-red R+11 district.

Fortunately for Brown, though, 'generic R' didn't show up, and instead he found himself running against 'conservative icon' Tom McClintock, who between his name-recognition and access to money was supposed to have been a formidable opponent may just be too laughable and over-the-top even for this district. First off, McClintock is from southern California and hasn't bothered moving to the district yet. He seems to have little intention of unpacking his bags even if he wins, as he's keeping various accounts for 2010 statewide offices open.

Things just haven't gelled for McClintock; not only has he trailed Brown in all polls except his own internals, but he's almost out of money, as he finished the third quarter with only $94,000 cash on hand. The district lean here should disqualify a Democrat from picking up this seat, but by any objective measure, Brown is poised to be able to do it. (C)

This is an ugly, awful race with an ugly, awful candidate on the Dem line who really ought to spare himself, his family, his constituents, and his nominal party a whole lot of embarrassment by resigning. We'll have a shot here again in the future.

One point I'd like to make in passing, though, is that if Dave Lutrin, who was a short-lived primary opponent of Mahoney's back in 2006, thought his cause was just, he should never have dropped out. I'm really tired of claims that Rahm Emanuel somehow "pushed" Lutrin out of the race.

This isn't a third-world country. His family wasn't threatened. In America, if you want to run for office, you run. Some people might make things difficult for you, but that's called politics. And we also have excellent proof that such a course of action by no means has to be quixotic - just look at Reps. Jerry McNerney and Carol Shea-Porter. In other words, there's no excuse for giving up just because Rahm allegedly likes someone else better than you. (David)

Who would have ever thought that the first Republican incumbent to fall off the cliff and into the no-man's land of "Lean Dem" would be someone other than Don Young? Tom Feeney was one of the few representatives tarred with the brush of Abramoff to survive 2006 and then decide to try again in 2008. Until recently, however, with Jack Abramoff disappearing in the rear-view mirror and Feeney safely ensconced in an R+3 district that he designed for himself while in the state legislature, it looked like he was going to skate through.

As Republican fortunes in general started to dwindle this summer, though, Feeney found former state representative Suzanne Kosmas gaining on him. So, he did exactly what any rational politican would do... he issued an ad reminding everyone of his involvement in the Abramoff affair and begging forgiveness for it. Wait... what? That's not what a rational politician would do? Hmmm.

From that point on, everything seemed to go haywire for Feeney, and another Kosmas internal from last week gave her a head-spinning 58-35 lead over Feeney. This week would have been the time for Feeney to issue his own internal as a rebuttal... and his silence on the matter is extremely telling. Even in a good year for Republicans, this would be a difficult hole for Feeney to climb out of, but this year, it'd be nearly impossible. (C)

This one is all about demographics. What was once a Cuban-American GOP stronghold has turned into a pure tossup district, at least according to the latest voter registration numbers. Recent polling shows Diaz-Balart up by only three points and well below 50%, and the DCCC is spending heavily against both Diaz-Balart brothers (while the NRCC has been focusing solely on protecting Lincoln with massive independent expenditures). This one feels hard to predict, making it a perfect tossup. (J)

Well, here we are - a place I distantly imagined we might possibly reach but am nonetheless quite surprised (and delighted) to be. The race for Idaho's first Congressional District is a tossup, my friends, and this is a race rating change you can believe in.

Bill Sali has done for Democrats what even the lovechild of FDR and Howard Dean never could have: He's made a seat that's supremely conservative extremely competitive. As we've explained at great length, Sali is the perfect fuckup, capable of doing no right.

Meanwhile, Dem Walt Minnick has been an ideal candidate running a nearly flawless campaign. He's scored support from a broad range of conservatives furious with Sali's antics and ineffectiveness, and he's picked up endorsements from the region's most important papers (see here and here). What's more, the polling (particularly a recent SUSA survey) has shown a tight race. We think Minnick has put himself in an excellent position to win this race and are eager to follow the returns on election night. (D)

In any other cycle, this race would have been a barnburner: A popular, longtime incumbent narrowly upset in a wave election by a first-time candidate wages a serious comeback in a swing district. The problem is that this isn't just any ordinary cycle. Indeed, it's looking like a vale of tears for all of the Republican retreads who are seeking rematches this year.

But Northup is a special case - she was actually a replacement candidate against John Yarmuth, after her bitterly humiliating primary loss to corrupt Gov. Ernie Fletcher in 2007. Northup's fundraising network may still be intact, but her political appeal isn't. Yarmuth, who is proving to be a great fit for this district, has led comfortably in five straight SUSA polls.

Once you factor in top-of-the-ticket excitement in Louisville, the chances of Northup pulling this one off seem remote indeed. Hopefully, with three shattering losses in just twenty-four months, we won't be seeing much more of Anne any time soon. (D)

We've heard very little all cycle long in this sleepy race. When last we checked in half a year ago, malfunctioning NRCC robot Ken Spain was busy telling the world that Mike Arcuri would be vulnerable unless the DCCC spent its entire $44 million warchest to defend him.

Actual DCCC expenditures on this race? $00,000,000.00. That sort of tells you all you need to know. Rep. Mike Arcuri has raised solidly if not spectacularly ($1.5m), but that's been more than enough to keep his Republican opponent Richard Hanna at bay. Arcuri is likely to hold this seat for a long time to come. (D)

After a paper-thin margin in 2006, this R+1 district in Democratic-trending Columbus was considered a prime pickup opportunity. Once incumbent Deborah Pryce decided to flee for the hills (actually, K Street is pretty flat, come to think of it) and county commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy came back for another try, many prognosticators thought this was the Dems' single-best pickup chance. Subsequent retirements (NY-25) and retirements/sex scandals/untimely deaths/party meltdowns (NY-13) moved it down the list a bit, but it always looked good for the Dems.

The GOP scored big, though, by nailing their desired candidate, moderate state senator Steve Stivers. Polls never showed a big edge for Kilroy, and Kilroy got pinned down with various weird minutiae (like controversies over bids to build a baseball stadium and the radical leftist pamphlet alternative weekly she used to edit) that kept her from building much momentum.

However, the general trend toward the Dems seems to have pushed this race into the Lean Dem column in the last month, with polls moving in Kilroy's direction and the NRCC, in triage mode, more focused on saving incumbents than open seats. Throw in pro-life independent Don Eckhart making Stivers' task even more difficult, and this becomes a race where a GOP victory would, at this point, be quite surprising. (C)

Republicans thumped their chest pretty loudly after 2006 that Democrat Zack Space had a fluke victory and would be quickly dispatched with by a top-tier challenger in 2008. Well, it's 2008, and we see no top-tier challenger here. We do see a sadsack nobody who has raised a whopping $332,000 in a year and a half since kicking off his campaign. That's simply not enough to topple a Representative who, by most reviews, has been a good fit for his district and has provided superior constituent services.

Memo to Republicans: Better luck next year. (J)

CA-04: You're Up By 6, Charlie Brown!

by: Crisitunity

Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 12:42 AM EDT

Charlie Brown (D): 48 (46)
Tom McClintock (R): 42 (41)
(MoE: ±5%)

Good grief! That blockhead Tom McClintock was supposed to be a formidable opponent for Charlie Brown in the open seat race in CA-04, to replace Abramoff-tainted retiree John Doolittle... so what happened? 'Conservative icon' McClintock has not only trailed by substantial margins in both public polls of this race (both from R2K), but now he's out of cash and has stopped TV advertising. Despite the fact that this Sacramento suburbs-based district is a dark red R+11, Brown may actually succeed in kicking McClintock's football.

Part of the problem seems to be that everyone has already heard of McClintock, and nobody seems to like him: his favorable/unfavorable rating in this sample is 44/42 (compared with Brown's 49/29). In addition, the big blue wave seems to be sweeping in at all levels of this district: McCain leads Obama only 50-40 (compared with a 61-37 Bush edge in 2004). Perhaps most encouragingly, Brown leads early voters by a yawning gulf: 56-38.

Don't Just Win... WIN BIG!

by: atdleft

Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 4:03 PM EDT

Want to see where I'm looking?  

CA-04: McClintock Still Keeping 2010 Accounts Open

by: James L.

Wed Oct 08, 2008 at 11:16 PM EDT

This summer, GOP congressional candidate Tom McClintock's campaign said he was closing down an open account to run for statewide office in 2010 and donating the funds to charity.

But four weeks before the Nov. 4 election, McClintock's account remains open and active, as the Thousand Oaks lawmaker has doled out thousands of dollars to fellow Republicans in the last week.

McClintock made $3,600 donations, the maximum allowed under state law, to a trio of Republican candidates for the Legislature: Senate candidates Tony Strickland and Greg Aghazarian and Assembly hopeful Jack Sieglock.

And here's McClintock's lame-assed excuse:

Asked why the accounts remain open nearly three months later, McClintock spokesman Bill George said, "We are doing exactly what they said in that paper."

"It didn't say all of the money is going to charity," George said, "(Feliz) said he's shutting the accounts. There's no timeline here. We've given $51,000 to charity."

You got that? "There's no timeline here." For all we know, McClintock will shut these puppies down in 2011 after he makes yet another failed statewide bid.

CA-04: McClintock Releases His Own Poll

by: James L.

Wed Oct 01, 2008 at 3:54 AM EDT

Charlie Brown (D): 39
Tom McClintock (R): 47
(MoE: ±4%)

Cute. Conservative Icon Tom McClintock finally releases an internal poll of his race to replace disgraced GOP Rep. John Doolittle, and this one shows the Icon leading by 8 points and splitting Independents by 37-48 in Brown's favor. The poll's release comes on the heels of a Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos that showed Brown up by five points, and a Benenson Strategy Group poll from late August that gave Brown a two-point lead.

I don't know much about Val Smith (the Brown campaign is taking issue with their accuracy), but I think I'd rather trust the polls handled by R2K and Benenson -- pollsters with more accomplished track records.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

CA-04: Brown Leads McClintock by Five, SSP Moves Race to "Lean Republican"

by: James L.

Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 8:21 PM EDT

Charlie Brown (D): 46
Tom McClintock (R): 41
(MoE: ±5%)

Earlier in the month, Brown posted a two-point lead over carpetbagging blockhead Tom McClintock in an internal poll conducted for his campaign. Both candidates have similar favorable numbers (41% for McClintock and 44% for Brown), but McClintock is a bit more banged up, posting a 35% unfavorable rating compared to Brown's 25%.

The poll also identifies an 18-point gender gap in the race, with women preferring Brown by a 50-36 margin, but men siding with the Conservative Icon by 46-42. Independents also side with Brown by 49-33.

Brown still faces a tough Presidential headwind in this R+11 district (Bush won here by 59-36 and 61-37 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively), but the numbers are a bit better this time around: McCain leads Obama by 51-39. Even if most of those undecideds break to McCain, this will still be an improvement for Team Blue over the last two elections.

SSP is moving its rating of this race from "Likely Republican" to Lean Republican.

Why "Lean", and not Tossup? Well, for one, we never underestimate the ability of Republicans to rally around their own in GOP strongholds. Brown still has the Presidential headwind to deal with, and those undecideds are still a tough nut to crack. But Brown is looking as good as he's ever looked right now.

California Race Chart (Part 3 of 3: House/State Legislature Races B)

by: californianintexas

Fri Sep 19, 2008 at 2:29 PM EDT

Here is Part 1, which covered the presidential race and the 12 ballot measures: http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Here is Part 2, which covered the U.S. House, State Senate, and State Assembly races in Northern and Central California: http://www.swingstateproject.c...


Cross-posted at Calitics: http://calitics.com/showDiary....

California Race Chart (Part 2 of 3: House/State Legislature Races A)

by: californianintexas

Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 7:52 PM EDT

Here is the link to Part 1, which covered the presidential race and the 12 ballot measures: http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Cross-posted at Calitics: http://calitics.com/showDiary....

CA-04: Brown Noses McClintock in New Poll

by: James L.

Mon Sep 08, 2008 at 6:47 PM EDT

Charlie Brown (D): 43 (42)
Tom McClintock (R): 41 (40)
Undecided: 15 (18)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

Some nice, steady numbers for Charlie here. McClintock still outpaces Brown in terms of name recognition (76% to 67%), but the Conservative Icon begins the campaign with slightly higher negatives (32% to Brown's 26%), and both post similar favorable ratings in the low 40s.

Brown will be fighting against a tough GOP headwind in this R+11 district as he tries to sway those undecideds, but he's starting off in good shape.

(Thanks to Andy D. for spotting this one.)

Spoghtlight On: The CA 4th CD

by: dizzyqueen

Sun Aug 03, 2008 at 8:42 PM EDT

Now, let me preface this by saying that I know this will prove to be a tough race.  The PVI of the district is R+11, and the GOP is running a carpet bagger from the 19th State Senate district (Los Angeles, Santa Barbara and Ventura counties).  It appears they have to transplant someone with a pulse to take over for Doolittle, whom chose not to run again after the scandals of the past year.

So this brings me to my support of Col. Brown.  He already had a good showing in 2006, running against Doolittle, only losing by just over 3 points.  The district has grown since then, and a lot more progressives have moved into the mountain regions of the Northern Sierra Nevada range.  With all this motion, we have the best chance we've had in 20 years to take back the CA 4th.

Now, I do have to admit that Col. Brown is a Blue Dog candidate, but in this climate it's probably a good thing.  He's progressive enough to massage some of the Liberal G-spots that I personally have (ex. Universal Health Care, Hate Crimes Legislation, LGBT Rights and Responsible Energy Policy) while still keeping true to his feelings about fiscal responsibility, which is one of my watchwords as well.  He even encourages people to slow down a little when driving to save gas and our environment.  And, having caught him on the freeway a couple of times, he practices what he preaches!

Moreover, Col. Brown has show his willingness to speak truth to power.  He was a vocal opponent of the Iraq War ... not because it was the politically right thing to do, but because it was the RIGHT thing to do.  He openly shares that he tasked and flew recon missions over Iraq in the 1990's and ... yep, you guessed it ... no WMD!

Also, on our commitment to Veterans, Col. Brown is setting aside 5% of his fundraising to assist with Veterans charities.  Having a Father who is a Vietnam Vet, this is something that is moving to me.  I'd like to see more of our candidates rise to this challenge and help those who have fought for our freedoms.

Charlie Brown also understands the need for retail politics in a rural district, such as the 4th.  From appearances at 4th of July Celebrations, to fundraisers at a Vineyard in Penn Valley (which is where I got to meet him ... my friend's parents own the vineyard), he is no stranger to the Grip-N-Grin.  When people contribute to his campaign, he sends them a Hand Signed letter of thanks.  That is something that is all too rare in today's politics.

I could go on and on about Lt. Col. Brown, but I'm sure I've been long winded enough for my first post.  Thank you all for this opportunity to really discuss some of the progressive candidates that will help further our country if given our support.

As always, Just my 2 Cents!  

Dizzy

[UPDATE]: And remember the C4O Act Blue page, where our pet congressional candidates are located!