I wonder if I am the only one interested in the Louisville Mayoral election primary that is taking place on Tuesday. Jerry Abramson was eligible to run for another term yet shocked residents by giving up the title "Mayor for Life" to run for Lieutenant Governor in the 2011 election. I thought it would be nice to give a brief overview of the candidates running before Tuesday's primary.
Very discouraging trendlines for Lunsford at this late date. The earlier SUSA poll which showed the race tied matched Lunsford's best performance all cycle (apart from a Rasmussen outlier back in May). But the drift in just a couple of weeks has been pretty stark. Whites were +3 for McConnell in the last poll; they are now +13. Independents were +6 for Lunsford; now they are +6 for Mitch.
As exciting as this race has been for some time, the problem (as I allude above) is that Lunsford has never had a lead in this race. With the last batch of polls all showing him behind anywhere from two to eight points, Bruce has to pull a serious rabbit out of his hat if we're going to paint KY blue.
UPDATE: A cause for optimism? ChadinFL points out the final SUSA poll (PDF) of KY-Sen in 2004 (Mongiardo v. Bunning) was 51R-42D. The actual result? A 51-49 Bunning heartbreaker. The big difference, though, is that Mongiardo had moved up five net points in that last poll, where here, Lunsford has dropped eight.
Last week, SUSA shook KY and America with its poll showing Mitch "Wall St." McConnell and Bruce Lunsford in a statistical tie at 49-46%. The poll was a 9 point plunge for McConnell, despite the fact that Democrats were severely undersampled.
Just down the road from Paducah, Kentucky sits St. John's Catholic Church. Every year, they have an annual picnic with games and political speaking. While not as famous, and a lot tamer than the Fancy Farm Picnic, it is a really good idea for candidates to stop in and work for votes in Western Kentucky.
Well, the political season has gotten pretty hot in Kentucky. With a Senate seat, and four hotly contested House seats here, Democrats here are fired up. Despite what any poll has said to this point, all these races are winnable. We have fielded a surprisingly impressive lineup of candidates and we are ready to fight for them. Meeting some of the delegates, and Jennifer Moore, the KDP chairman has convinced me that our party is ready to fight.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
An eye-popping Rasmussen poll (5/22, likely voters) this morning shows Democratic senate candidate Bruce Lunsford leading Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell-- yes, you read that right, leading McConnell:
Bruce Lunsford (D): 49
Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 44
(MoE: ±4.5)
Granted, it's a long way from here to election day, and McConnell is already tying Lunsford to Barack Obama, who, as we all know, is not especially popular in Kentucky. Still, the fact that a Democratic candidate is polling this well against the senate minority leader, in a blood-red state, is a heartening development. I'm just hoping that Tom Daschle's iPod includes James Brown's "The Big Payback" . . .
Update (James): It's worth noting that earlier this month, Lunsford trailed McConnell by 36% to 48% in a poll commissioned by the Lexington Herald-Leader. Rasmussen's been giving us an awful lot of good news lately. Maybe too much good news.
Update II (James): Like clockwork, the McConnell campaign has released an internal poll conducted around the same time showing the Senator leading Lunsford by 50%-39%.
It has been a rocky road in Kentucky's Democratic Senate Primary. First, we kept losing candidates as the establishment lined it up for Bruce Lunsford. I actually lost interest in the race knowing I would vote my straight ticket in the fall. Now it seems we will be able to mount a successful Progressive challenge after all. That is because Greg Fischer has stepped to the plate and is charging to the finish. This race is heating up and has begun to tighten.
The question of the Senate race in Kentucky is coming down to the question not of, do we want to replace Mitch McConnell, but who will be best to replace Mitch McConnell in the fall. I am one Democrat that would never entertain the thought of not only voting for McConnell but indeed NOT VOTING AGAIMST HIM. You can bet this is one Democrat that will be voting for our nominee.
A lot has happened in the Democratic Primary for the Senate seat of Kentucky. Already, we have seen Greg Stumbo and Andrew Horne step aside. The consensus now seems to be that Bruce Lunsford should be the nominee for Kentucky's Senate race. However, it seems another candidate has stepped foward as a true Democratic voice in this race. Now, it seems Greg Fischer is making his move in this race.
