• VA-Gov: PPP's latest has McAulliffe 21, Moran 19 and Deeds 14 for the Dem gubernatorial primary. Last month it was 18-18-11. The election is three months off. (D)
• PA-Sen: An opening for Pat Toomey? Susquehanna has a new poll showing Snarlin' Arlen's re-elects at just 38% - and an awful 26% among Republicans. (D)
• TX-Gov: Tom Schieffer, a former State Rep. and Bush Ambassador to Australia, has announced that he's forming an exploratory committee to seek the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Texas. When questioned by reporters, Schieffer says that he does not regret voting for Bush for Governor and President. A recent PPP poll has Kay Bailey Hutchison crushing Schieffer by a 54-30 margin, while incumbent Gov. Rick Perry leads Schieffer by only 45-35. (J)
• IN-Gov: Is Baron Hill getting ready for a 2012 gubernatorial campaign? There was some brief speculation that he might run in 2008, but of course that never panned out. (J)
• OR-Gov: This may be a tea leaf that Gordon Smith is passing on the 2010 governor's race, or it may simply be a way to stay in the Beltway money loop for a year while laying groundwork, but Gordo is staying in DC and taking a "senior adviser" position (since he's subject to the two-year lobbying ban) with prominent DC law/lobbying/soul-devouring firm Covington & Burling.
Rasmussen (2/4, likely voters, 12/4 in parentheses):
Creigh Deeds (D): 30 (39)
Robert McDonnell (R): 39 (39)
Some other candidate: 6 (4)
Brian Moran (D): 36 (41)
Robert McDonnell (R): 39 (37)
Some other candidate: 4 (5)
Terry McAuliffe (D): 35 (36)
Robert McDonnell (R): 42 (41)
Some other candidate: 3 (5)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Rasmussen polls the Virginia governor's race a second time, meaning we now have trendlines... and, frankly, they don't look very appetizing. Ex-Del. Brian Moran led AG Robert McDonnell last time by 4, but now he's trailing by 3, while Del. Creigh Deeds fell from a tie to a 9-point deficit.
Part of the problem here may be that, while McDonnell has long since consolidated Republican support, the three Dem contenders are in primary attack mode, driving their numbers down as they target each other. The numbers in the McAuliffe/McDonnell matchup don't seem to have budged much, which suggests that McAuliffe may be doing the best job right now of the three of getting his message into the media... although that still doesn't seem to translate into a good performance in the general matchup.
UPDATE (James L.): Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen weighs in:
I think the answer here is in the timing of the poll being conducted. It was done Wednesday night. McDonnell resigned as Attorney General Tuesday and that was all over local tv news casts Tuesday, and then all over the state's newspapers on Wednesday. That level of exposure is unusual for a 24 hour media cycle this far out from November, and I bet it helped McDonnell to lead in the poll. I certainly don't think there was any nefarious intent in the timing of the poll but that sort of thing does have an impact.
Huge number of undecideds but check out the approvals.
"Moran has the best favorability marks from likely primary voters, with 34% having a positive opinion of him and just 10% viewing him negatively. McAuliffe is the most well known of the candidates, which cuts both ways. He has the second highest favorable rating, 30%, but also has easily the highest unfavorable rating at 23%. Deeds is the least well known of the trio with 67% of respondents having no opinion of him one way or the other."
Looks like anything could happen here but I guess McAuliffe has the edge with his financial advantage. Does anybody actually think he could win in November? This is a genuine question and not rhetorical.
With only 129 days until Virginia's June 9th Democratic gubernatorial primary, the race is in full swing. The good news for political junkies is that the race has been receiving a good deal of attention. For those looking for a fix, on Tuesday Public Policy Polling* will release head-to-head and favorability numbers for the Democratic Primary. Somepeople think that Tuesday's Sharon Bulova result will be important. But it is an all hands on deck for all the campaigns and the only candidate trying to up the ante is Terry McAuliffe in his attempt to smudge the fact he hasn't helped down ticket Commonwealth Democrats by glossing over with cash.
Creigh Deeds (D): 39
Robert McDonnell (R): 39
Some other candidate: 4
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Brian Moran (D): 41
Robert McDonnell (R): 37
Some other candidate: 5
Terry McAuliffe (D): 36
Robert McDonnell (R): 41
Some other candidate: 5
Rasmussen has polled the 2009 Virginia governor's race, and every configuration points to a close contest. Attorney General Robert McDonnell seems to be locked in as the Republican candidate, but the Democratic field is very much up in the air, with three credible candidates in the mix: Rep. Creigh Deeds (who narrowly lost to McDonnell in the 2005 AG's race), Rep. Brian Moran, and former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe. In the three head-to-heads, Moran fares the best, beating McDonnell by 4, while the nationally-known McAuliffe fares the worst, losing by 5. There is no poll included of the Democratic primary.
Although Deeds ran for statewide office four years ago, this may be primarily a case of name recognition; Moran is from Alexandria, so voters throughout the DC media market are likely to be familiar with him, while Deeds is from rural Bath County in southwestern Virginia. This creates an interesting strategic question: nominate Deeds and try to put into play another whole region of the state that otherwise wouldn't be (even if it's one that's vote-poor and shrinking), or nominate Moran and try to maximize Dem performance in northern Virginia, which is by far the biggest concentration of Democratic strength (but still can't, by itself, win a statewide election). As for McAuliffe, who, judging by his TV appearances this summer appears to be attempting to represent Margaritaville, name recognition may not be the problem so much as a perception of carpetbagging and/or sleazy insiderness.
In every ranking of the Senate races, the open seat in Virginia always comes out on top of the heap in terms of those seats most likely to change hands. Former Gov. Mark Warner (D) practically walks on water, and maintains a consistently large lead over his opponent, former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R), as they compete for the seat currently held by retiring Republican Sen. John Warner (no relation to Mark). Beneath the confident chorus declaring Mark Warner's lead, however, there has been a faint hum of discordant worry, as Warner's name has been tossed about as a potential VP for Barack Obama. If Warner were taken out of the Senate race, our hold on that seat would be much, much more precarious, as there is no Democrat with the popularity and stature statewide to assure us of victory.
Well, I am pleased to report that we can all breathe a sigh of relief. At the State Democratic Convention in Richmond today, Mark Warner officially ruled out running for Vice President, stating that he is "110%" committed to winning the Senate seat.
That is not only good news for us this year; it also means that Democrats who have great potential but need time to build their statewide support, such as State Sen. Creigh Deeds, Delegate Brian Moran, and former Lt. Gov. Don Beyer, can save up their energies for the Gubernatorial election next year, rather than worry about having to jump into the Senate race in Warner's absence.
UPDATE: The Virginia State Democratic Convention took place in Hampton Roads, not Richmond. (The Richmond Times-Dispatch article I cited above did not mention as much-- h/t Johnny Longtorso).
