• Election Results: No big surprises last night in the Alabama runoffs. Robert Bentley, who'd had the edge in the one public poll shortly before the runoff, beat Bradley Byrne in the gubernatorial GOP runoff, 56-44; he and Ron Sparks are now promising each other a positive, issues-oriented race. (Assortedwonks are trying to figure out today if Bentley, friendly - or at least friendlier - with the AEA, was helped along by Democratic crossover votes... and the answer appears to be no, not really.) In the GOP runoff in AL-02, Mike Barber is sending his gathered armies back home after losing by a 60-40 margin to Martha Roby. In the Dem runoff in AL-07, Terri Sewell beat Shelia Smoot 55-45, and is almost certain to succeed Artur Davis. Finally, the closest race of the night was the GOP Agriculture Commissioner runoff, where Dale Peterson-powered John McMillan sent Dorman Grace back to his chicken farm, 52-48.
• AZ-Sen, AZ-Gov (pdf): A new Rocky Mountain poll from the Behavior Research Center finds [insert usual "good news" joke here]. John McCain leads J.D. Hayworth (seeming DOA after the free-grant-money thing) in the GOP primary 64-19, with 5 for someone named Jim Deakin. They also polled the now-irrelevant gubernatorial primary, finding Jan Brewer at 57, with 12 for Owen Buz Mills and 9 for Dean Martin (both of whom have dropped out since the poll's completion). Matthew Jatte remains in the primary, but he polled at "less than 1%."
• FL-Sen: Here's some good news for Kendrick Meek, who seems to be counting on a last minute Democratic surge: Bill Clinton will be appearing on his behalf in August, to stump for him in August. Dem primary rival Jeff Greene has some less good news: he just lost his campaign manager Josh Morrow. (It's unclear whether he fled, or was pushed.) The St. Petersburg Times has an interesting profile of Greene today, too, that delves below the headline-grabbing superficial weirdnesses.
• KS-Sen: Tancredo sez: get a brain, Moran! (No, I'm never going to get tired of that joke.) The loudmouthed ex-Rep., last seen torpedoing ally Ken Buck, today barged back into the Kansas GOP Senate primary and admitted he had gotten it all wrong. He withdrew his earlier backing for Rep. Jerry Moran and switched over to Rep. Todd Tiahrt instead, saying that Moran had "deceived him" on his apparently inadequate hatred for teh brown people. In other news, did you know there was actually a third guy running in the primary, and he wasn't just Some Dude® but a former state Attorney General? Of course, he was AG from the years 1965 to 1969 Anno Domini, so you could be forgiven for not remembering Robert Londerholm. At any rate, Londerholm dropped out of the race today.
• LA-Sen: Bobby Jindal had previously hedged on his support for David Vitter, showing up at some fundraising events but never actually going so far as to say that he endorsed him. That's going to be more of an issue now that Vitter has some serious primary opposition from Chet Traylor, and Jindal is doubling down on his neutrality, saying he's not focused on the race. At least Vitter continues to have the NRSC in his corner.
• NC-Sen: SurveyUSA is out with another poll in NC-Sen, on behalf of WRAL. Richard Burr continues to have a lead over Elaine Marshall, currently at 46-36, with 6 to Libertarian Mike Beitler. Burr's favorables are 28/27 (with 23 neutral and 22 no opinion), while Marshall is at 25/12 (with 28 neutral and 35 no opinion), so usual caveats at Marshall's room to grow apply. Interestingly, SurveyUSA followed their WA-Sen lead and added a cellphone oversample, which in various permutations had little effect on the toplines.
• NV-Sen: No polling memo to link to, at least not yet, but Jon Ralston calls our attention to a new poll from Dem pollster Fairbanks Maslin on behalf of the Patriot Majority. If it's a quasi-internal, you can probably guess where we're going with this... it actually has Harry Reid in the lead, over Sharron Angle 44-40. Both Reid (45/52) and Angle (40/41) have net-negative favorables, though.
• FL-Gov: Rick Scott lost a court battle (though the war over the Millionaire's Amendment is no doubt not over, though). A federal district court judge denied Scott's request for an injunction against Florida's campaign finance law, which would give a truckload of money to the near-broke Bill McCollum because of Scott's aggressive self-funding.
• MI-Gov: There are two separate polls of the Michigan GOP gubernatorial primary floating around today. One is a public poll from Mitchell Research & Communications; it sees a flat-out three-way tie between Mike Cox, Peter Hoekstra, and Rick Snyder, each of them at 18, with Mike Bouchard at 9 and Tom George at 2. Not quite content with that, Bouchard rolled out an internal poll (from McLaughlin & Associates) which, in marked contrast with, well, every other poll, had Bouchard tied for the lead. His poll has him and Hoekstra at 19, with Cox at 16, Snyder at 12, and George at 3. Mitchell also has numbers from the Dem primary, where they find Andy Dillon leading Virg Bernero 35-15.
• RI-Gov: This seems out of the blue, although he had been lagging in fundraising and underperforming in the polls: Democratic AG Patrick Lynch will be dropping out of the gubernatorial primary, effective tomorrow. That leaves state Treasurer Frank Caprio as de facto Dem nominee, sparing him a primary battle with the more liberal Lynch. It's the day before nominating papers are due, so maybe he'll re-up for more AGing. The main question now seems to be positioning for the general election... maybe most notably whether independent ex-GOP ex-Sen. Lincoln Chafee finds himself running to the left of the generally moderate Caprio.
• WA-08: Via press release, we have fundraising numbers from Suzan DelBene, who's raising strongly despite little netroots interest so far. She raised $378K last quarter, and is sitting on $1.04 million CoH. She's raised $1.65 million over the cycle.
• Rasmussen:
• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 42%
• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 45%, Roy Blunt (R) 47%
• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 37%, Kelly Ayotte (R) 49%
• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 40%, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 43%
• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 38%, Bill Binnie (R) 49%
• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 39%, Jim Bender (R) 43%
• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 36%, Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
• AZ-Sen, AZ-Gov: The signature by Gov. Jan Brewer (which may have helped her survive the GOP primary, but may also hurt her in the general) of Arizona's new aggressive anti-immigrant law was the key motivating factor in a new Democratic candidate getting into the Senate race: civil rights activist Randy Parraz. He'll face Rodney Glassman in the Democratic primary. (Why not the, y'know, Arizona Governor's race instead? Apparently Glassman looks like easier primary opposition than AG Terry Goddard in the governor's race... and at any rate, John McCain and J.D. Hayworth have both been beating the war drums on immigration.) And here's an interesting take on the immigration law: ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo just came out in opposition to it, saying, "I do not want people here, there in Arizona, pulled over because you look like should be pulled over." If even Tom Tancredo thinks you're doing it wrong... you're probably doing it wrong.
• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon's campaign doesn't seem to be doing anything illegal here, but there's still no good way to spin this: the campaign has been offering students an extra $5 bounty (on top of a flat hourly rate) for every Republican registered during a Univ. of Connecticut voter registration drive. It's a practice that the DOJ has frowned upon.
• IL-Sen: In the wake of the seizure of the Broadway Bank, Alexi Giannoulias wasted no time in getting an explanatory ad on the air, laying it out in easy-to-grasp points: one, he hadn't worked there in years and when he left it was fine, two, the broader economy took the bank down, and three, speaking of that economic downturn, don't vote for unemployment-benefits-denying Mark Kirk.
• MD-Sen: OK, maybe all those Barb Mikulski retirement rumors will finally go away. She just had her campaign's official kickoff event on Friday. She has 24 times the cash of her likeliest Republican opponent, Queen Anne's Co. Commissioner Eric Wargotz.
• NC-Sen: Elon University's out with another poll; they still aren't doing head-to-heads, but have some assorted other numbers that Richard Burr would probably rather not see. His approvals (among flat-out everybody, not even RVs) are 28/37 and 26% say he "deserves re-election" with 44% saying "time for a new person."
• NV-Sen: A poll for the Nevada News Bureau performed by PMI finds Sue Lowden leading the pack in the GOP Senate primary, at 41. Danny Tarkanian is at 24, Sharron Angle is at 17, and "someone else" is at 18. The poll was taken on the 22nd, shortly after Lowden laid out her support for trading chickens in exchange for poultices and tinctures.
• NY-Sen-B: Long-time Rockland Co. Exec Scott Vanderhoef has decided not to pursue a run against Kirsten Gillibrand, after having spent a month in exploratory mode, saying the money's just not there. Vanderhoef probably found he didn't have the name rec outside of Rockland Co. to have an advantage against the odds and ends in the GOP primary, let alone in the general.
• UT-Sen: Another poll of GOP delegates for the convention in Utah isn't as bad for Bob Bennett as the one leaked to Dave Weigel last week, but it still looks pretty bad for him. Mike Lee leads the way among first-choice votes at 31%, followed by Bennett at 22% (and then Tim Bridgewater at 17% and Cherilyn Eagar at 10%). 41% of delegates say they will "absolutely not" vote for Bennett, so even if Bennett picks up the other 59%, he still can't nail down the nomination at the convention (as there's a 60% threshold).
• WA-Sen: Everyone seemed a little taken by surprise by Friday's SurveyUSA poll of the Washington Senate race, which has non-candidate (for now) Dino Rossi leading Patty Murray 52-42 (and leading the various no-name GOPers actively in the race by 2 or 3 points). Even the Rossi camp is downplaying it, saying that their internal polling places Murray in the lead - which is an odd strategy for someone who got gifted an outlying poll, unless either he's trying to rope-a-dope Murray into complacency or privately cursing the results saying "aw crap, now I have to run for Senate." One of the no-namers, motivational speaker Chris Widener, got out of the race on Friday, which may also portend a Rossi run (or just having taken a stark look at his own finances). Murray's camp may have gotten advance warning of the SurveyUSA poll, as on Friday they leaked their own internal from Fairbank Maslin giving Murray a 49-41 lead over Rossi, very consistent with R2K's recent poll.
• IL-Gov: Oh, goody. Scott Lee Cohen, having bailed out/gotten booted off the Democratic ticket as Lt. Governor nominee after his criminal record became news, still has a political issue that needs scratching. He's announcing that he's going to run an independent bid for Governor instead. Considering how thoroughly his dirty laundry has been aired, he seems likely to poll in the low single digits; I have no idea whether his candidacy (which now appeals mostly only to the steroid-addled pawnbroker demographic) is more harmful to Pat Quinn, Bill Brady, or just the world's general sense of decency.
• MI-Gov: When I heard a few weeks ago that Geoffrey Fieger (the trial lawyer best known for defending Jack Kevorkian and second-best-known for his awful turn as 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nominee) was pondering another gubernatorial run, I laughed it off. The new EPIC-MRA poll makes it seem a bit more serious, though... which, in turn, if he won the primary, would pretty much foreclose any Democratic shot at winning the general. They only polled the Democratic primary and find, thanks to name rec within the Detroit metro area, Fieger is actually comfortably in the lead at 28%. Andy Dillon is at 20, Virg Bernero is at 13, Alma Wheeler Smith is at 8, other is at 2, and 29% are undecided. Fieger hasn't moved much to act on his interest, though, and has only three weeks to collect the necessary 15,000 signatures to qualify.
• FL-24: Karen Diebel earned the backing of Tom Tancredo in the GOP primary in the 24th, focusing on (with Tancredo, what else?) in the immigration issue. It seems less of a pro-Diebel endorsement than more of a slap against her GOP opponent Craig Miller, though; in a 2006 Miami Herald op-ed, Miller (who was at that point chairman of the National Restaurant Association) came out pretty solidly on the "cheap labor" side of the Republican split on immigration.
• GA-12: Democrats looking for an upgrade from ex-state Sen. Regina Thomas (who raised $10K last quarter and has $4K CoH) for a primary challenge to recalcitrant Blue Dog John Barrow are going to have to keep looking. State Sen. Lester Jackson decided to take a pass, and will stay neutral in the Barrow/Thomas race. He'll focus instead of supporting the Senate bid of Labor Comm. Michael Thurmond (another rumored, but no-longer, challenger to Barrow).
• LA-03: Bobby Jindal just appointed Scott Angelle, the state's Sec. of Natural Resources, to the vacant position of Lt. Governor. Why is this filed under LA-03? Angelle was rumored to be one of the top contenders to run for the 3rd (although it was unclear whether he was going to do it as a Dem or a GOPer... Angelle was a Dem in the legislature, but appointed by GOP Gov. Jindal to his cabinet). With Angelle saying he'll return to his job at Natural Resources after a permanent replacement is elected, that means that former state House speaker Hunt Downer is pretty well locked-in as the GOP nominee in the 3rd, and the Dems aren't likely to get an upgrade from attorney Ravi Sangisetty, making this open seat a very likely GOP pickup. (H/t GOPVOTER.)
• NY-01: Randy Altschuler got the endorsement from the Suffolk County Conservative Party on Friday, which guarantees him a place on the ballot if he wants it. He'll still need to overcome Chris Cox and George Demos in the competitive three-way moneybags duel in the GOP primary (where the county GOP recently switched its endorsement from Altschuler to Cox). It's unclear whether he'd keep the Conservative line if he lost the GOP primary, as that would create a NY-23 type situation and pretty much assure Rep. Tim Bishop's safety. (Unlike the patchwork of counties in the upstate districts, all of the 1st is within Suffolk.)
• NY-29: The GOP would really, really like to have a special election in the 29th, despite David Paterson's apparent intention to play out the clock until November (and prevent a possible GOP pickup, given the difference in strength between the likely candidates). Several GOP party chairs within the district are preparing a lawsuit that would force a special election; the state GOP plans to assist.
• OH-02: Bad news for Jean Schmidt: although she got the Hamilton Co. GOP's endorsement in the previous two elections, she's going to have to proceed without it this year. They're staying neutral as she faces several primary challengers, most notably Warren Co. Commissioner Mike Kilburn.
• PA-12: In battling independent expenditures in the 12th, the GOP went large, as the NRCC plunked down $235K on media buys. The DCCC also spent $16K on media buys.
• SC-04: The dean at Bob Jones University (the crown jewel in the buckle of the Bible Belt, in Greenville in the 4th), Robert Taylor, has announced he's supporting Trey Gowdy in the GOP primary instead of incumbent Rep. Bob Inglis. The occasionally-moderate Inglis (more stylistically than in actual voting substance, though) faces at least three right-wing competitors in the primary, but could run into trouble if he doesn't clear 50% and gets forced into a runoff with one of them.
• WV-01: There are dueling internal polls in the 1st, in the Democratic primary. State Sen. Mike Oliverio was first to release a poll, saying he led Rep. Alan Mollohan 41-33. (One caveat: Oliverio's pollster is Orion Strategies, owned by Curtis Wilkerson, who also just happens to be Oliverio's campaign manager.) Mollohan struck back with a poll from Frederick Polls giving him a 45-36 lead over Oliverio, with the primary fast approaching on May 11.
• MA-AG: Despite it now being widely known that Martha Coakley has a glass jaw (or what's something more fragile than glass? what do they make those fake bottles out of that they use in bar fights in the movies?), she may actually get re-elected Attorney General without facing any GOP opposition whatsoever this fall. Of course, that may have something to do with the fact that the GOP's entire bench in Massachusetts just got elected to the Senate.
• Pennsylvania: The Philadelphia Inquirer has an interesting look at the changes in registration in Pennsylvania over the last decade. The Democratic Party grew substantially in the state's east, gaining 550,000 registrations up to 4.3 million voters. The GOP shrank by 103,000 registrations down to 3.1 million votes. The Dems lost 20,000 voters in the state's southwest, though; in 2002, 27.8% of the state's Dems were in the Pittsburgh area, but that's down to 23.8%. Contrast that with the Philadelphia metro area: in its five counties, the number of Republicans dropped 13.5%, from a million to 873,000.
• Redistricting: Here's the last redistricting resource you'll ever need: a handy map showing congressional and legislative redistricting procedures for all 50 states. There's also an accompanying document (pdf) which goes into remarkable detail about the various processes, and even contains an appendix of some of the ugliest current gerrymanders.
• KY-Sen: Kentucky's Fancy Farm picnic is one of those old-timey traditions where all the candidates gather together, make a stump speech, and roast each other a little -- but Daniel Mongiardo and Jack Conway already seem to be going a little past roasting each other to going after each other with axes. Mongiardo said Conway stood up for the "silver spoon crowd," and, in his bid to be the coal candidate in this race, referred to cap and trade as "Jack's tax." Conway shot back that Mongiardo (an ear, nose, and throat doctor) "can't hear the truth, you can't smell the truth and you sure as hell can't speak the truth." Conway also referred to himself as a "tough son of a bitch" and even said "crap" at some point, leaving Mongiardo boo-hooing to the press later on about so many profanities.
• LA-Sen, Gov: Bobby Jindal confirmed that he won't be running for Senator against David Vitter in the GOP primary, but instead of endorsing Vitter as would be customary at this point, engaged in some rhetorical song and dance instead: "David's going have to make his case with the voters directly just like any other candidate's going to have to do that." Meanwhile, Jindal is facing an investigation from his AG over his blog... or more precisely, "The Ledger," the blog published by the Dept. of Administration about budgetary news. Still, a Republican state Senator filed a complaint, saying that the blog puts forth a political agenda.
• NC-Sen: The Hill, in a long piece that mostly is about how Elaine Marshall is on track to be the Democratic nominee by default, drops an interesting tidbit at the end: Chapel Hill mayor Kevin Foy said he's considering the race. (Chapel Hill has a population of less than 50,000, but it has an outsized place in the state's zeitgeist, as home of UNC.)
• IA-Gov: Former GOP Governor Terry Branstad has been occasional subject of rumors of another gubernatorial run (Branstad already served a record four terms as governor, 1982-1998). Branstad didn't seem interested, but over the weekend went on the record as at least being somewhat interested: "I'm not ruling it out... And I have real concerns about the direction things are going." For what it's worth, a recent GOP internal poll showed Bradstad beating current Governor Chet Culver, while Culver easily dispatched the other GOPers. (H/t desmoinesdem.)
• NM-Gov: GOP State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, who's had an exploratory committee for a while, announced in a letter to supporters that she's officially launching her gubernatorial bid. She joins Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez in the GOP field.
• NV-Gov: Former GOP Governor (and current RNC member) Bob List dissed current Governor Jim Gibbons in no uncertain terms, saying his re-election chances are "fairly slim" and that Gibbons seems unlikely to run. When asked if he was in fact still campaiging, though, Gibbons had a succinct answer: "Yes."
• NY-Gov: The NY Times talks to a number of confidantes who make it sound like Andrew Cuomo is very interested in running for Governor, despite his many protestations otherwise. Cuomo's holding pattern seems to be about waiting for the party's other power brokers to try and push David Paterson out behind-the-scenes first, before committing to a primary and risking a repeat of the racially divisive 2002 gubernatorial primary where Cuomo lost to Carl McCall.
• FL-08: Seems a little early for dueling internal polls, but that suggests this will be one of 2010's top House contests. An NRCC poll gave Rep. Alan Grayson a 37-34 edge over Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, but when told that Grayson voted to "raise taxes on small businesses" and "increase the deficit," Crotty takes a 41-28 lead. (They also message-tested all the things wrong with Crotty -- land swaps, toll increases, and the like -- but didn't reveal how much Grayson's lead increases after being told about that.) Grayson responded with his own poll from April, showing him with a 46-40 lead over Crotty. (H/t Progressive America.)
• FL-24: The Feds wrapped up their investigation of Tom Feeney's golf trip to Scotland with Jack Abramoff, without filing charges. Feeney, currently practicing law, sidestepped questions of whether he'd mount a comeback for his old seat now.
• GA-09: Yet another Republican threw his hat in for the super-red open seat left in north Georgia by Nathan Deal: state Sen. Lee Hawkins. TheUnknown285 outlines the downballot implications, though: Hawkins could be replaced by GOP state Rep. Carl Rogers, who would leave behind a House seat in Gainesville that would be ripe pickings for Democrats because of rapid Latino growth. (UPDATE: Ooops, no dice. Rogers says today he'll stay in the House.)
• VA-05: Tom Perriello got into the news in an interesting new way. It turns out that several letters sent to Perriello's office, purportedly from local liberal groups, opposing cap and trade, were complete fabrications. They were forgeries of the groups' letterhead, sent by lobbying firm Bonner & Associates, who've apparently graduated from mere astroturfing to mail fraud.
• NY-LG: An appellate court ruled that Richard Ravitch, who was appointed by David Paterson in unprecedented (if not unconstitutional) fashion, may start serving as Lt. Governor. However, the court held that he can't do the one thing that he was put into power to do, which is preside over the state Senate and cast tie-breaking votes.
• NY-20: You'll never believe who Barack Obama endorsed in the NY-20 special election, happening in just a week: Scott Murphy! He sent out an e-mail to more than 50,000 supporters in the district making the case for Murphy. Still no sign of an Obama appearance, though - and this late move comes as House Dems were supposedly "infuriated" at a lack of White House support for Murphy. Meanwhile, Taegan Goddard claims to have been leaked an RNC internal poll showing Jim Tedisco up over Murphy by only 3.
• CT-Sen: Chris Dodd just dodged a loud, annoying bullet: CNBC host Larry Kudlow has said that he won't run against Dodd in 2010. Kudlow said, as many believed, that "it was never a serious proposition" in the first place. Dodd still faces less-known but more credible opposition in the form of ex-Rep. Rob Simmons and probably state senator Sam Caligiuri.
• FL-Sen/Gov: Charlie Crist tells reporters that he's considering forming a Senate exploratory committee even before the state legislature ends its session on May 1. Crist has previously maintained that he would not announce his future plans until after the current session comes to a close. (J) Meanwhile, former state house speaker Marco Rubio is seeming committed to staying in the Senate race even if Crist gets in; he's been publicly going after Crist on the stimulus and on gambling.
• NYC-Mayor: Quinnipiac's newest poll is largely unchanged from its last, with Bloombo a shade under 50 and Dems in the mid-30s. But the Dem numbers have improved a little bit, and The Mayor is at his worst approval ratings of his second term (still, 64-28). Will Anthony Weiner's apparent decision to back off the race allow Dems to rally around Comptroller Bill Thompson? (D)
• NRCC: The NRCC scored a big fundraising haul for its March dinner, with Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal as the keynote speaker. They raised more than $6 million, with 95% of the House Republicans contributing.
• TN-03: The Chattanooga Times Free Press takes a preliminary look at the contenders lining up to replace Zach Wamp (running for TN-Gov) in the solidly Republican 3rd. Right now, Bradley County sheriff Tim Gobble is the only formal candidate. (I'm hoping he wins just because of his hilarious name. I'm especially looking forward to the Gobble-Fudge Act. I can also think of a much more obscene-sounding bill involving a certain minority leader.) Tennessee GOP chair Robin Smith, who may be the strongest candidate, is still in the exploring stage. Other possible GOPers include state senator Bo Watson and state rep. Gerald McCormick. The district's strongest Dem, state senator Andy Berke, seems more interested in a gubernatorial run. One other possibility is that Wamp may jump back into his seat if he doesn't get traction in the GOP gubernatorial primary.
• MI-11: Could we finally have a legit challenger in our sights to take on GOP weirdo Thaddeus McCotter? A group of local activists have banded together to draft state Sen. Glenn Anderson for the race (no relation to the six-time Stanley Cup winner). (J)
Skip this diary if you think it's too early to start talking about the 2012 presidential campaign just because Barack Obama hasn't been inaugurated yet.
2:44PM Sun: DCal looks at the numbers and finds that the Dems have held the state House, too. 12:35AM (final update): TXObserver brings us some key state House results. Looks like the Republicans picked up a few seats and forced run-offs in other Dem-held districts. Democrats had a 17-seat edge in the state House going into the election. We'll have to wait a few weeks to see what the complete carnage is. 11:59PM: The lack of a Democratic candidate with a strong appeal in Orleans Parish really helped lift Jindal over the 50% mark. Check this out: while Mitch Landrieu cleaned up with 90% of the vote here, Democrats Boasso and Campbell combined for a pathetic 28% of the parish's vote, with 382 of 442 precincts reporting. That's way behind Republican-turned-Indie John Georges' total of 38%, and even behind Jindal's 33%. Talk about a wipeout. 11:51PM: So here's why I think that Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne (R) didn't deserve to win re-election tonight: his website sucks. 11:36PM: TXObserver brings us some state Senate races to watch in the comments. It looks like Mitch Landrieu will win comfortably--he's holding his closest challenger to a 56-32 margin with 82% of the vote in. 11:30PM: KTBS has Jindal at 47% with 3,413 precincts reporting, but he's expected to rack up some big points in his home turf in the NOLA suburbs (he scored 88% of the vote in his re-election bid there last year against two hapless Democrats). (Update: there seems to be some bad math here, anyway.) 11:23PM: WWLTV's calling the race for Jindal. 11:14PM: With 3,032 of 3,967 precincts reporting, Jindal is sitting tight with 53%. 11:08PM: Highlights from some of the other statewide races -- Mitch Landrieu has 54% of the vote in bid for re-election as Lt. Governor with 2372 precincts reporting. Democrat James Caldwell and incumbent Attorney General Charles Foti (D) are both slightly edging Republican challenger Royal Alexander. Looks like a Caldwell-Foti run-off could be in the cards. 10:40PM: 2.641 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 18% 10:33PM: 2,636 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 56%, Boasso 18%, Georges 14%, Campbell 10% (according to WWLTV). 10:22PM: 1,388 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 52%; Boasso, 18%. Landrieu holding at 51%. 10:20PM: 1096 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 18% 10:14PM: From WWLTV New Orleans: "Election analyst Greg Rigamer says things are looking very good for Jindal to get over 50% and win outright." 10:03PM: 787 of 3,967 precincts reporting: 52% Jindal, 19% Boasso. 9:56PM: 470 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 53%, Boasso 19%. Landrieu at 51%. 9:47PM: 298 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 54%, Boasso 18%. Landrieu at 50%. 9:27PM: 11 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 60%, Boasso & Campbell at 14% each. Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu at 46% in the absentee ballot count so far. 9:21PM: What a surprise: some New Orleans voters get screwed at the polls. 9:06PM: 1 of 3,967 precincts reporting: Jindal 63%, Boasso 15%.
It's election day in Louisiana, as voters go to the polls to choose between Bobby Jindal (R), Walter Boasso (D), Foster Campbell (D), John Georges (I), and a slew of also-rans in the race to replace outgoing Gov. Kathleen Blanco. Polls close at 8pm Central/9pm Eastern. Turnout has been described as "brisk" and "steady" in the reports that I've seen. We'll update this thread as results come in.
How well will Jindal do tonight? Will he avoid the run-off? Who will place second? I don't usually like to stick my neck out, but here's my bet, for what it's worth: Jinal 55%; no run-off.
I'm writing today about Louisiana's current electorate. I'd like to state my opinion of things here as an on the ground resident of the state. I'm doing this because I continue to see countless out of state Democrats post information, or express opinions on the state that I do not agree with. It's my opinion that most people are uninformed, so let me hit you with the truth.
Republicans are scared.
You read right. They're scared here, very deep down I think they're very worried about their strength in this state. When Democrats here, including Markos, post pieces or comments saying Louisiana is lost, or Jindal has a lock on the Gubernatorial race, or even going as far as saying they don't see how Landrieu has a chance of being reelected, they are unknowlingly buying into what I believe is actually a Republican misinformation campaign to discourage Democratic activist in and outside of the state from donating or campaigning for Louisiana Democrats. They want to demoralize our state party by making the average Democrat who's not well informed, here and abroad, think the state's a lost cause. And the fact that so many out of state Democrats believe this is demoralizing, because we need money from the rest of the coutnry to defend our party against a resurgent LA-GOP. If you buy into that rubbish, then our state does become a lost cause, but it will be becuase national Demcorats have written us off.
The coverage of L'Affaire Vitter is just beginning to have its discursive effects: the Republican Party is splintered, and Walter Boasso is experiencing the first phase of what will be an unstoppable surge. According to an Anzalone-Liszt poll cited by Steven Sabludowsky of The Bayou Buzz,
"Boasso has more than tripled his current vote since May, moving from 6% to 21% with just four weeks of a moderate television buy. Currently Jindal leads with 52%, followed by Boasso (21%), Campbell (6%) and Georges (1%). One-in-five voters are still undecided (21%).
Not only has Boasso moved up 15 points, the undecided vote has increased by 7 points, from 14% to 21%. The Boasso television has softened Jindal and Campbell's support and moved some of their votes to the undecided column. (Campbell's support is down to 6%, from 9% in May)."
Walter Boasso educates the voters; Walter Boasso's numbers grow. And I imagine they will continue to grow once voters realize "Bobby" Jindal's misleading message of ethics and change has no real empirical basis. That Foster Campbell and John Georges are yet to air television commercials should be kept in mind. In other words, Jindal will find himself in what will be a bitter but entertaining runoff.
I am actually quite fond of this one minute, introductory commercial: Boasso covers the issues; he announces his party affiliation; the commercial is playful but substantive; Boasso outlines a biography of success, Louisiana style; and it is organized and coherent. What do all of you think? What are your impressions of Walter Boasso?
