• FL-Sen: There's probably no good way to spin the firing of the head spinner: after weeks of unending bad press, Charlie Crist has decided the solution is to fire his long-time communication director, Erin Isaac. (Isaac contends that she left on her own, and the timing has nothing to do with Crist's collapse.)
• IL-Sen, OH-Sen: Two little-known, never-been-elected rich guys are going on the air with TV spots in their respective Senate primaries: Democratic attorney Jacob Meister in Illinois, and Republican auto dealer Tom Ganley in Ohio. Meister may not have much hope in a field with three prominent candidates, but Ganley is trying to gain traction among the anti-establishment right against consummate insider pick Rob Portman in a two-way GOP primary fight. (Ganley's buy is reportedly only for $60K, so it seems more oriented toward generating media buzz than actually reaching lots of eyeballs, though.)
• NC-Sen: Rep. Bob Etheridge still sounds genuinely undecided about whether to get into the Senate race or not, but he's now promising a decision by the end of the week. The DSCC is actively courting Etheridge, despite the presence of SoS Elaine Marshall in the race. Meanwhile, two other possible contenders are circling, watching, and waiting: former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker says he may run if Etheridge doesn't, and outgoing Chapel Hill mayor Kevin Foy is still considering the race, saying he'll decide by the end of the month.
• SC-Sen: Ouch! Lindsey Graham just got a pretty strong repudiation from the local GOP in one of the state's largest counties, Charleston County. They unanimously voted to censure Graham over his cooperation with Democrats and moderate GOPers. Graham isn't up until 2014, but it certainly doesn't bode well for his next primary.
• CO-Gov: Josh Penry's jump out of the Colorado governor's GOP primary may have been more of a push. Big-time GOP funder Phil Anschutz is reported to have personally contacted Penry to let him know that he'd be on the receiving end of the 501(c)(4) that he'd created to target anyone opposing establishment candidate ex-Rep. Scott McInnis. (Of course, with news of this having leaked out, that seems likely to just further enrage the teabaggy right and lead them to find a hard-right replacement who, unlike Penry, isn't worried about having his brand besmirched for future runs. Could Tom Tancredo be that man?)
• CT-Gov: For about the zillionth time in his career, Democratic AG Richard Blumenthal decided not to run for a promotion; he says he won't get involved in the newly-minted open seat gubernatorial race. However, Blumenthal did nothing to quash rumors that he's waiting to take on Joe Lieberman in 2012, saying "stay tuned." Meanwhile, Paulist financial guru Peter Schiff, currently running for the GOP Senate nod, confirmed that he won't be leaping over to the gubernatorial race, either.
• SC-Gov: Fervently anti-tax state Rep. Nikki Haley has been a key Mark Sanford ally in the legislature, but she's been lagging in the GOP gubernatorial primary race. A Mark Sanford endorsement would be poison at this point, though, so the Sanfords paid her back with a slightly-less-poisonous endorsement from Jenny Sanford instead. Still doesn't really sound like the kind of endorsement you want to tout, though.
FL-08: Republican leaders are increasingly sour on the candidacy of 28 year-old businessman Armando Gutierrez Jr., who is "pissing people off a lot" with his bare-knuckle style. The NRCC is still hoping to recruit a solid challenger to go up against "colorful" Dem Rep. Alan Grayson after months of recruitment mishaps, and the current batch of names being bandied about include businessman Bruce O'Donoghue, state Rep. Eric Eisnaugle, and state Rep. Kurt Kelly. Gutierrez, however, seems to be doing all he can to make the GOP primary an unpleasant proposition. (J)
• FL-19: The Democratic primary in the upcoming special election to replace Robert Wexler is shaping up to be a real snoozefest. Former State Rep. Irving Slosberg, who lost a bitter 2006 state Senate primary to Ted Deutsch, announced yesterday that he won't be running and that he's endorsing Deutch. (Slosberg probably has his eye on Deutch's soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat.)
• ID-01: With state Rep. Ken Robert's dropout in the 1st, Vaughn Ward had the GOP field to himself for only a couple hours before another state Rep., Raul Labrador, said that he'll get in instead. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Bill Sali has been speaking before conservative groups and is still considering an attempt at a rematch with Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick, and says he'll decide by the end of the month.
• NJ-03: Democratic freshman Rep. John Adler has been seemingly running scared despite the Republicans not having recruited anyone in this swingy R+1 district, probably helped along by Chris Christie's huge numbers last week in Ocean County. Republicans think they have the right guy to flatten Adler: former Philadelphia Eagles lineman Jon Runyan. Runyan isn't retired but not on any team's roster either, and is "considering" the race.
• NY-24: He lost narrowly in 2008 to Democratic Rep. Mike Arcuri, and now businessman Richard Hanna is making candidate-type noises again, with a press release attacking Arcuri's health care reform vote. Hanna is thinking about another run; Republicans don't seem to have any other strong candidates on tap in this R+2 district.
• SD-AL: Republican State Rep. Shantel Krebs decided against a run against Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in 2010. She was facing a cluttered field, with Secretary of State Chris Nelson and state Rep. Blake Curd already in the GOP primary.
• Nassau Co. Exec: So I was wrong about the Seattle mayor's race being the last one to be called: the Nassau County Executive race is now in mid-recount, and Republican challenger Ed Mangano has a paper-thin (24 votes) lead over Democratic incumbent Tom Suozzi. Democratic Nassau County Legislator Dave Meijas (who you might remember from NY-03 in 2006) is also in a recount.
• VA-St. House: The last House of Delegates race in Virginia was finally called; Republican Ron Villaneuva was certified the victor in the Virginia Beach-based 21st over incumbent Dem Bobby Mathieson by a 13-vote margin, although the race is likely to go to a recount by Mathieson's request.
• WA-St. Sen.: Democratic State Sen. Fred Jarrett was picked by new King Co. Executive Dow Constantine (who defeated Jarrett in the primary) to be the Deputy Executive. Jarrett will need to resign from the Senate to do so, creating a vacancy in this Bellevue-based, historically Republican but recently very Democratic seat. In Washington, though, legislative vacancies are filled by appointment by the county council (Democratic-controlled in King County, as you might expect), so there won't be a special election, and the appointee will serve until (his or her probable re-election in) Nov. 2010.
• Generic Ballot: Everyone in the punditsphere seems abuzz today that Gallup suddenly shows a 4-pt GOP edge in the generic House ballot, a big swing from the previous D+2 edge. (Most other pollsters show a mid-single-digits Dem edge, like Pew at D+5 today.) Real Clear Politics points out an important caveat: the last time the GOP led the Gallup House ballot was September 2008, and you all remember how that election played out. Another poll today is perhaps more interesting: Winthrop University polled just the Old South states, and finds a 47-42 edge for the Republicans in the generic House ballot in the south. Initially that may not seem good, but remember that most of the state's reddest districts are contained in the south, so, after accounting for the heavily-concentrated wingnuts, this probably extrapolates out to a Dem edge still present in southern swing districts.
• Public option: With the prospect of an opt-out public option looming large, the topic of whether to opt out is poised to become a hot issue in gubernatorial races in red states next year. Several states already have opt-out legislation proposed, although it remains to be seen whether any would actually go through with it (when considering how many states turned down stimulus funds in the end despite gubernatorial grandstanding... or how many states have decided to opt out of Medicaid, as they're able to do).
• WATN?: Congratulations to Charlie Brown, who has accepted a position in the Dept. of Homeland Security. Unfortunately, this means Brown won't be back for another kick at the football in CA-04.
• MO-Sen: In an e-mail to local TV affiliate KY3, former Treasurer Sarah Steelman seems to be walking back her comments to the Hill yesterday, not wanting to appear to shut the door on a GOP primary bid against Rep. Roy Blunt. She says she's still "very seriously considering" it.
• PA-Sen: Here's an interesting development: a state legislator in Pennsylvania has introduced a bill to switch Pennyslvania from closed to open primaries. This seems like a nakedly pro-Specter bill: it would have helped him survive his GOP primary against Pat Toomey, and now it would have the opposite effect, helping him survive a Democratic primary against Joe Sestak by opening the door to independents and moderate Republicans.
• AK-AL: Unless the indictment fairy has a present for him soon, Rep. Don Young looks to have a much easier go of it in 2010 than last cycle. Not only is his Dem challenger ex-state House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz likely to run for governor instead, but now it sounds like his primary opponents, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell and ex-state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, aren't going to run again either. Unlike last time, Parnell would need to give up his LG job to run, and he may instead be running for Governor if Sarah Palin declines to run again. Businessman Andrew Halcro, who ran for Governor as an independent in 2006, also sounds likely to run for Governor rather than challenge Young. State Senator Hollis French, who sounded like a likely Governor candidate for the Dems until Berkowitz showed up, may be the Dems' best bet.
• AL-07: The field to replace Artur Davis got bigger, as Jefferson Co. Councilor Shelia Smoot officially launched her campaign. She joins lawyer Terri Sewell, state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr., and former Selma mayor James Perkins in the primary (which is the only real race in this D+18 district).
• CA-11: Contra Costa County Sheriff Warren Rupf turned down the chance to run as a Republican in the upcoming CA-10 special election, but that seemed to ignite his interest, as now he's considering running in 2010 in next-door CA-11 against sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney, at R+1 a more plausible race than the D+11 CA-10.
• FL-08: Republican state Representative Steve Precourt is considering making the race against Rep. Alan Grayson in this R+2 Orlando-area seat. His strongest words seemed to be reserved for likely primary opponent Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, who Precourt doesn't see as a "fresh face" or viable, although Precourt said he'd stand down if former state Sen. Daniel Webster got in.
• ID-01: The Republican field in ID-01 is filling up, as state House majority leader Ken Roberts announced he's in. He'll have to get past veteran and McCain ally Vaughn Ward before facing off against Rep. Walt Minnick, though. Ex-Rep. Bill Sali occasionally makes threatening noises about a rematch, but he hasn't said anything definite.
• NH-02: Former state Rep. Bob Giuda (not to be confused with Frank Guinta, running in NH-01) is the first GOPer to launch an exploratory committee in the race to fill Rep. Paul Hodes' open seat. He may still be joined by the 2008 candidate, Jennifer Horn, and, more remotely, a return by ex-Rep. Charlie Bass.
• NY-23: Douglas Hoffman, the head of a local accounting firm, has thrown his hat into the GOP nomination contest for the special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. Republicans also announced their schedule for picking a nominee, involving four regional meetings around the districts where candidates would speak to the Republican county committee members over a two- to four-week period once there's an official vacancy.
• PA-03: Freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, representing the swingy R+3 district based in Erie (won by John McCain by 62 votes), has managed to secure a hot ticket in view of its self-imposed membership cap: she joined the Blue Dog Coalition.
• Redistricting: A petition drive is underway in Florida to get an initiative on the ballot for 2010 that, while not creating an independent redistricting campaign, would at least place some non-partisan limitations on the creation of House and legislative districts. Most of the money behind the petition drive is coming from Democrats, but two prominent Democrats aren't on board with the drive: Reps. Alcee Hastings and Corrine Brown, both of whom stand to inherit more difficult districts if they're made less convoluted.
• PA-Sen: Well, something finally went right for Arlen Specter. After Specter got condemned to the basement on all his committees on Tuesday night, Majority whip Dick Durbin doled out a little charity this morning by giving up his own chair (Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime and Drugs) and handing it over to Specter (apparently without Pat Leahy's say-so). I'm wondering what Specter had to do behind the scenes to smooth things over; if the rumors flying that Specter is poised to re-flip-flop back to supporting EFCA are true, that's probably the answer.
• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy is still making noises about a primary challenge to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, but with her frequent caveats about stepping aside if someone younger takes on the challenge, it seems like she's doing it more to yank Gillibrand's chain on gun control issues. Gillibrand has been a reliable vote in favor of gun controls since entering the Senate, going so far as to co-sponsor the current bill to close the gun-show loophole. McCarthy confesses to being "very happy about it. I just want her to stay there."
• NH-Sen: Judd Gregg tells CQ that wherever he goes, he's bombarded by Republicans begging him to run for another term in the Senate. He says he'll listen to their entreaties, but he's "comfortable with where" he is.
• AK-Gov: Governors in general are having a rough go of it these days, and now even the once-mighty Sarah Palin is suffering, falling to a mundane 54/41 favorable rating according to Hays Research. Senator Lisa Murkowski, by comparison, is still at 76/18.
• OK-Gov: Ex-Rep. J.C. Watts is still publicly undecided about the governor's race, and kicking the can down the road on a formal decision. Reading between the lines of his statement, it sounds like he's having some trouble fundraising, saying "You don't take on something like this unless you know you will have the resources to do it."
• CO-04: The GOP got the candidate it wanted, to go up against freshman Rep. Betsy Markey in this now R+6 district. State House minority whip Cory Gardner, who represents the vast emptiness of eastern Colorado, announced that he'll be running. Univ. of Colorado regent Tom Lucero is already in the hunt for the GOP nod.
• MN-06: One day after former Independence Party Lt. Gov. candidate Maureen Reed said she'll be a Dem candidate in 2010, the 2008 candidate, Elwyn Tinklenberg, confirmed he'll be running again, against one-woman gaffe machine Michele Bachmann.
• CA-47: GOP Assemblyman Van Tran made it official, setting up his exploratory committee for an uphill bid against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in this D+4 Latino-majority district in the heart of the O.C. (Discussion underway in Gus Ayer's diary.)
• ID-01: Idaho state Treasurer Don Crane spent the last week glad-handing GOP leaders and fundraisers in Washington, DC, fueling speculation that he's ready to challenge frosh Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick next year. Would his candidacy dampen the spirits of ex-Rep. Bill "Brain Fade" Sali, who is currently mulling a rematch? (J)
• GA-09: When you have an R+28 district, the only question about an open seat is what variety of wingnut you're going to get next. Former state Senator Bill Stephens (who lost the SoS primary to Karen Handel in 2006) announced he'll run to succeed Rep. Nathan Deal, retiring to run for governor. Former state Transportation Board chair Mike Evans is already seek the GOP nom.
• IL-11: The GOP has lined up Air Force Captain Adam Kinzinger to run against freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson in the Chicago suburbs. His exploratory committee is open, but he's currently serving in Iraq and won't be able to make a formal announcement until summer.
• MI-11: We've got somebody willing to step up against Bad Thad McCotter in this Dem-trending seat in the economically hard-hit Detroit suburbs: fundraising consultant Natalie Mosher. The DCCC sounds like it's going to keep looking for someone else, but if that fails, bear in mind that McCotter barely won in 2008 against a different Dem nobody.
• GA-12: When you're running for office, it's important to sell yourself... but not oversell yourself. Surgeon and Iraq vet Wayne Mosely, who's running against Rep. John Barrow in the D+1 rural Georgia district, recently tweeted that the NRCC rated his race as one of the top 3 in the nation! Uh, no, there's no ranking system, responded the NRCC, although they did concede that they were "very excited" about Mosely's candidacy.
• FL-Sen: It's poorly sourced, but conventional wisdom seems to be reaching some sort of critical mass on the idea that Gov. Charlie Crist will announce within the next week whether or not he will run for the open senate seat in Florida. Some say he is a "near lock" to switch over to the senate race.
• IL-Sen: Chris Kennedy, son of Robert F. Kennedy, is now publicly pondering entering the Illinois senate race. Kennedy has never held elective office; he's a developer who runs Chicago's Merchandise Mart. On the other hand, he's been a Chicago fixture most of his life, and has that certain last name. One source says there's an "85% chance" he'll do it.
• CA-Sen: In case there was any doubt, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer has officially announced her plans to seek re-election. (J)
• GA-Gov: State senator Eric Johnson has, with Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle dropping out of the gubernatorial race, switched from running for lieutenant governor to governor. He joins SoS Karen Handel, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, and state rep. Austin Scott in the hunt for the GOP nomination.
• AL-Gov: Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, Alabama's only Democratic appellate judge, is interested in joining the already-crowded field seeking the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. She would have to resign her position (in which case GOP governor Bob Riley would appoint a new chief justice) in order to campaign for governor, though.
• NH-01: Manchester mayor Frank Guinta is the likely candidate to take on Carol Shea-Porter, and he has produced an internal poll showing him trailing Shea-Porter 43-34. Shea-Porter is well-below the danger mark of 50, but on the other hand, Guinta isn't an unknown; he already represents nearly 20% of the district.
• ID-01: Are you there, God? It's me, Brain Fade. Ex-Rep. Bill Sali (R) sounds like he's angling to make a comeback against Democrat Walt Minnick next year. In an email to supporters, Sali says that he's "increasingly troubled by the direction our country is headed" and is asking his supporters to pray for him as he considers his political future. (J)
• SD-AL: South Dakota's Republican Secretary of State, Chris Nelson, has made known his interest in running for South Dakota's at-large House seat. Nelson, who's term-limited out, didn't seem to make this contingent on whether or not Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin ran for higher office, like the open governor's seat (which has been rumored, but doesn't seem to be taking shape).
• CA-47: The GOP is looking to Vietnamese-American assemblyman Van Tran as a candidate against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in this D+4 Orange County district. This very low-turnout district is about 15% Asian and 70% Hispanic.
• CA-26: Businessman Russ Warner, who ran unsuccessfully against GOP Rep. David Dreier in 2008 (and attempted to do the same in 2006, but ran into a snag in the form of a primary loss), says that he plans to run for a third time next year in this Dem-trending CD. (J)
• DCCC: Everybody's favorite new villainess, Michele Bachmann, has been so prolific with the oddball fringe-right comments lately that she's actually getting her own page at the DCCC's website. Imagine that: from backbencher to public enemy #1 in less than half a year!
A few days ago, many of us were popping champagne over the news that Bill Sali was apparently preparing himself for a rematch against newly-minted Dem Rep. Walt Minnick.
Former GOP Rep. Bill Sali told 670 KBOI late Friday afternoon that support for a rematch against Democrat Walt Minnick "runs very deep," but that he hasn't decided whether to run in 2010. [...]
"I haven't made a decision yet," Sali told KBOI's Nate Shelman in a six-minute interview. "I promise everyone when I make a decision I will let everyone know." Sali did not take calls on Shelman's talk show.
Earlier Friday, Sali told the Associated Press, "I am months away from any decision."
Candidates are required to file statements of candidacy if they raise or spend $5,000 for the upcoming election. Sali said he had spent more than $5,000, and the filing was a technical matter.
Congressman Bill Sali and his campaign staff disrupted a NewsChannel 7 reporter and a representative for his opponent during an interview Tuesday in Downtown Boise
KTVB reporter Ysabel Bilbao was interviewing Walt Minnick's campaign director John Foster Wednesday afternoon. During the interview, someone loudly yelled and was laughing during the interview at the Grove plaza.
Bilbao and Foster initially ignored the intrusion, but quickly noticed the source of the heckling: Sali and members of his staff.
Foster stopped the interview and noted the commotion.
"I am sorry I was a little bit distracted," Foster said. "I think at some point you even have to question his maturity."
Foster said he saw Sali making faces at him and holding up "bunny ears."
What an utter boob. And Sali's response?
"Look, I think that the Minnick campaign needs to take an approach like we have," he said. "I wish they would be a little more light hearted instead of so mean spirited." [...]
After this story first appeared, a representative for Sali's campaign challenged the characterization of the incident as heckling.
"I sincerely apologize if you took it as heckling. That's absurd," spokesperson Wayne Hoffman said via e-mail. "If we can't laugh at ourselves, then what have we become?"
You've got to hand it to GOP Rep. Bill "Brain Fade" Sali -- he sure keeps things interesting. Just check out what he had to say in the Sunday edition of the Idaho Statesman's Voter Guide. Sali and his Democratic opponent, businessman Walt Minnick, were both asked: "What has been a turning point or a challenge in your adult life?" (Emphasis mine.)
Minnick gave a thoughtful answer about his decision to resign from his job at the Nixon White House during the Watergate Scandal.
Bill Sali was assigned a book report in the fourth grade. Uncharacteristically, he blew it off. "I procrastinated," Sali said. "When I didn't get it done, I took an F." It was the first and last 'F' Sali ever got, and it became a transforming experience for the future congressman. From that point on he always was a good student, and while he acknowledged that he dropped some classes in college because he took on too much class load, he never again failed. "It changed my focus," Sali said in a telephone interview. "It was a turning point for me because I knew I had to be serious about things."
Yup, the most formative experience of Sali's life was flunking that book report in grade school. This might explain a few things.
Here at the Swing State Project, we've followed his career closely ever since he first ran for Congress last cycle. Sali caught our attention with his extraordinary primary victory in 2006, chalking up a victory with an astounding 26% of the vote - this despite a major infusion of support from the Club for Growth. We thought we might have a real live one on our hands, a real nutter nobody liked. But just how disliked was he?
As it turns out, a whole hell of a lot. The Republican Speaker of the Idaho House said of Sali:
"That idiot is just an absolute idiot. He doesn't have one ounce of empathy in his whole fricking body. And you can put that in the paper."
Today, in the Idaho Press-Tribune in Nampa, second-place finisher Robert Vasquez, a Canyon County commissioner, said he'd never vote for GOP primary victor Bill Sali because, "I would not and do not and cannot endorse a liar for Congress."
Simpson said he was irritated but had no intention of assaulting Sali. He added, however, that as House colleagues heard the story, many told him, "The third floor wasn't high enough. You should have taken him up to the fourth floor."
"Bruce has been a great speaker of the House," Otter said. "And as he told me, he learned everything that he knows from Mike Simpson. And that is why every time he has a bad day, he goes and beats the hell out of Bill Sali."
And that's just his own party. The maniacs at the Club for Growth had to bail Sali out yet again in the general, and even Dick Cheney spent some time hustling for dollars and votes in this district, which gave fully 70% of its vote to George Bush. In the end, Sali won just 50-45 over a Democrat he out-spent by 50%.
The amazing thing is that the fun never stopped with Bill Sali. Sometimes, serious screwups who manage to fail upward to the United States House of Representatives just learn to shut up and keep a low profile. Not Sali - he's way too colossal for that.
Six months into his term, Sali's approval rating stood at an impressive 29-46. Things clearly hadn't changed much a year later, when he squeaked through a primary against a guy who raised just $70K with only 57% of the vote. (I guess compared to his first primary, that looked downright awesome.)
He managed to continue his winning ways by supporting an insurgent challenge to Gov. Otter's preferred state party chair. Meanwhile, he stopped paying his consultant's bills, carrying a debt of $76,000 - no small sum in Idaho, and a dangerous fuck-you to other campaign vendors in such a tightly-knit political community.
It gets better. John Boehner, doubtless gritting his teeth, helped defile the English language like a good Inner Party member by adding Sali to the "Regain Our Majority Program." Yes, I know, you can't regain the majority by buttressing incumbents, but maybe Boehner just didn't feel like printing up different stationery.
Sali repaid the gesture with classic brain fade accuity. When the time came to file second-quarter fundraising reports, his finance staff declared that the dog ate their laptop. James Hell made this fine .TXT catch:
I am unable to file the 2nd quarter 2008 FEC report, as FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the Sali for Congress data file. I first attempted to upload a file to the FEC site on June 6. I again tried on June 9, using the new FEC software update, without success. I then sent FEC technical support a copy of the Sali for Congress FEC file. FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the file so that it may be uploaded. I am in regular contact with FEC technical support and the FEC analyst, in an effort to resolve this matter.
It took these clowns twenty-six days to figure out how to file their report (the law gives you 15), and even then it was still a shambles - just like the rest of Sali's campaign. He opened an office in - I kid you not - the wrong congressional district (Idaho's only got two). But the best was announced just recently: as a cornerstone of his fundraising plan, Bill Sali plans to hold yard sales to fill his campaign coffers. No word yet if Plan B is to rummage through the county dump for some discarded treasures - but I think we can assume that's probably on the list.
Meanwhile, Sali has drawn some very high-quality opposition in the form of businessman Walt Minnick. Minnick has consolidated support throughout Idaho and has also outraised Sali by a considerable margin - over $350K.
He's impressed the DCCC, too - not only have they added him to the Red to Blue program, they've reserved $350K in ad time in the district, which will go along way in this cheap media market. Panicked, the NRCC responded with a $500K reservation, but will they really be able to afford to spend the full amount? And you just know Tom Cole is grimacing at the thought of having to shell out cash to save this jerkwad's sorry ass.
SSP has long felt that, in the rubric we use, an upset could not be ruled out in this seat, just thanks to Sali's poor political skills. But he's managed to make things a whole lot worse in his brief time in office. He really is the perfect fuckup. Combined with a top-notch Democratic candidate who has run a flawless campaign, polling showing a competitive contest, and an environment which (even post-Palin) is still hostile for Republican incumbents, we feel compelled to upgrade this race to "Lean Republican". For an R+19 seat, it's not a decision we undertake lightly, but it's a decision we feel is supported by all the available evidence, and one we're comfortable making.
You can find the Swing State Project's complete list of ratings for competitive House races here.
Harstad Strategic Research for Walt Minnick (9/9-11, likely voters):
Walt Minnick (D): 43
Bill Sali (R-inc): 38
(MoE: ±4.9%)
These numbers paint a dramatically different picture of the race than a recent Research 2000 poll conducted for Daily Kos that showed Sali leading by 46-35. In that survey, Minnick had suspiciously high unfavorable numbers (41% favorable, 40% unfavorable), which is hard to explain given that Minnick has been airing nothing but unanswered positive bio ads for the past two months. In Minnick's poll, his favorables are at 39% and his unfavorables are at 12% -- I find this spread much more believable than R2K's poll.
The poll has some more good news: Bill Sali's favorables are pretty low (36-37) and his job approval is even worse (28-52). The cherry on top: only 22% of voters say that they're going vote to re-elect Sali, while 26% say they'll consider someone else, and 33% are definitely voting for someone else. A good base of anti-Sali and persuadable voters there.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
It's no secret that Idaho's Republican House delegation is a bit of a tense duo. Case in point: when Bill "Brain Fade" Sali and Mike Simpson served with each other in the Idaho state House (Simpson as Speaker, Sali as undistinguished GOP grunt), Simpson once threatened to throw Sali out of his office window. So perhaps it's no surprise that Mike Simpson is publicly smacking Sali over his opposition to the recently-proposed federal Wall Street bailout:
"What's his answer: to let the economy go down?" Simpson said. "Sometimes Bill puts himself in a philosophical position that's untenable that he can't get off of. We got into this mess because of the failure of government oversight. Consequently, I think there's a role for government to play in trying to get us out of this, as much as I don't like it."
Now, whether or not you think the Wall Street bailout is a sound move is not really the issue here. What is important is that Sali just got publicly ripped by Idaho's most senior House representative.
It's no secret that frosh GOP Rep. Bill "Brain Fade" Sali has been having a hard time raising money since his narrow win in 2006. Indeed, at the end of June, Sali only had $250K in the bank, and $136K in debts -- including several bills left outstanding to disgruntled Idaho-based consultants.
With the economy in the shitter (thanks, Republicans!), Brain Fade is coming up with some unique strategies to replenish his coffers:
But out in Idaho, Rep. Bill Sali has decided to raise money by using a simple, grass-roots technique that church groups and youth sports teams have employed for decades - he's hosting a yard sale!
Actually, the freshman Republican is urging all of his supporters to host yard sales, with the profits from all those old clothes, dishes and furniture going to his Congressional campaign. Yard sale hosts also receive campaign literature to hand out to their bargain-seeking clients, a way to generate interest in the campaign while raising money.
"Some people who are calling our campaign have never been involved in a campaign before," spokesman Noah Wall tells HOH. "They're looking for ways to help Bill, and a yard sale is a neat way for them to get involved."
Good luck with that, Bill. Maybe I can buy a Jell-o mold in the shape of Idaho for a quarter at one of these.
Apparently Bill Sali's bad case of 'brain fade' impairs his ability to read a map, because he has opened his campaign headquarters for his race to win a second term in ID-01... in ID-02. [Link is behind paid firewall; sorry!]
Idaho congressman Bill Sali has opened a new campaign office just upstairs from his congressional office in Boise - both of them in the 2nd Congressional District. Sali represents the 1st District.
"It's a convenient location, and it's a centralized location where people can interact easier with the congressional office," said Sali spokesman Wayne Hoffman. "It's in downtown Boise. A lot of people come downtown to see the offices of their elected officials."
So there's not only the matter of being in the wrong district, but this also raises the question of building the proper separation between campaign and congressional offices. Oh, well... based on Sali's skill at filing his FEC notices, it's not like he's let a few 'rules' ever get in his way.
Democratic opponent Walt Minnick has an office located in the western part of Boise, in ID-01. (He also has almost twice as much cash on hand as Sali.)
UPDATE: Wow, Sali's not the only one. Turns out John Shadegg's campaign HQ is in AZ-04 instead of AZ-03, too!
Rep. Bill "Brain Fade" Sali just can't stay out of trouble. His latest offense? Supporting a successful insurgent candidate against the incumbent Idaho GOP chair, who was the preferred choice of Gov. "Butch" Otter. The Idaho Statesman's Dan Popkey writes that crossing Otter might have some in-state consequences:
But Otter matters most. If he throws his arms around Sali - as 2nd District GOP Rep. Mike Simpson literally did in 2006 - it could be decisive. Otter can help Sali retire a $135,000 debt and keep pace with Minnick, who out-raised Sali two-to-one in the first quarter.
Or Otter could decide his schedule is just too tight to help the congressman who defied him, leaving Sali reliant on out-of-state money and following the beat of his different drummer on the campaign trail. [...]
"It was a slap in the face to the governor," said a GOP lawmaker who spoke to me on condition I not use his name.
When asked about getting even, Otter replied: "Wait and see."
Sali has strained some other relationships at home, too. From Real Clear Politics:
The incumbent faces more pressing problems for the current campaign. Sali's consultant, an Idaho-based firm called Spartac LLC, is the candidate's long-time friend, but he says he won't do any more work for the incumbent unless he's paid first, the Spokane Spokesman-Review reported last month. Sali still owes Spartac $76,000, and has total debts of $135,000, according to FEC reports.
It's no secret that Sali has had trouble fundraising, which is why he was added to John Boehner's ROMP program earlier in the year. But if Sali is going to rely on PACs and his fellow members to bail his ass out against well-funded Democrat Walt Minnick, should he really be insulting one third of the House GOP caucus? From the Politico:
Rep. Bill Sali (R-Idaho), addressing a gathering at the Shake the Nation rally in Idaho on May 16, told those assembled that he goes "to work in a place that, well, it's quite a mess: your nation's capital."
"I tell people," he said, " 'As bad as you ever thought it was, just know it's a lot worse.' In spite of that, I work with a group of probably around 130 people that are very good folks, people that I look up to, that I respect a great deal, people who would be quite comfortable sitting in these pews on a Sunday. I hope you're encouraged by that."
What does Sali think of the other 69 of his Republican colleagues? Are they godless heathens?
You've got to hand it to Bill Sali -- he sure knows how to make politics in Idaho interesting.
The race to fill Republican Butch Otter's open seat in Idaho's first district was one of my favorite stories to write about last year. In what is now a campfire legend, Bill "Brain Fade" Sali rode a wave of bad press for his asinine antics and bad reputation in the Idaho state legislature to a spectacularly dismal 49-46 victory over Democrat Larry Grant last November. (And when Bush carries your district with 68% of the vote, no self-respecting Republican candidate has any business performing that badly.)
However, aside from being the handmaiden of his campaign benefactors, the economic regressives at the Club For Growth, Sali has kept a mostly low profile in the House this year. So one might expect that Sali's high negatives have softened over the past eight months, right? Well, maybe not, if you believe the latest polling.
Via The Hill and New West comes news of a new poll conducted by Greg Smith and Associates showing Sali with some serious baggage ("voters", July 11-13):
Bill Sali (R-inc.)
Favorable: 29
Unfavorable: 46
No Opinion: 13
Unaware: 12
MoE: ±5.3%
Just dismal. And how does Larry Grant fare, the rematch candidate who commissioned the poll?
Larry Grant (D)
Favorable: 28
Unfavorable: 13
No Opinion: 29
Unaware: 30
MoE: ±5.3%
So, despite losing a close race and feeling the full fury of the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Club For Growth (who spent $483,000 and $441,000 smearing Grant's name, respectively, in the closing weeks of the campaign), Grant walks away with only a 13% disapproval rating, while 59% of the district's voters either do not recognize his name or have no opinion of him either way. Losing a House race, it would seem, does not earn one a great deal of meaningful name recognition.
While Sali has not shaken off his negatives, it is difficult not to mention that this district had little problem re-electing the late Congresswoman Helen Chenoweth despite her own psychedelically nutty reputation. It seems that Sali still has yet to endear himself in the same way, though.
PS: You might remember the Boise-based Smith & Associates firm as the curators of a startling poll last fall showing Sali's support evaporating while the rest of his Republican colleagues were in solid shape.
What is it with Bill Sali?
