• CA-Sen: Rasmussen piggybacked another California Senate poll on their gubernatorial poll from yesterday. Despite finding some gains for Meg Whitman yesterday, they don't see any improvement for Carly Fiorina or Chuck DeVore. Barbara Boxer leads Fiorina 46-37 (it was 49-39 in September) and DeVore 46-36 (previously 46-37).
• DE-Sen: Mike Castle's fundraising was weak earlier this year (in fact, that was why most people figured he wasn't going to run for Senate), but now Republican Senators are moving to quickly fill up his coffers. Four Senators gave large contributions, the largest being $10,000 from Thad Cochran. Castle had $853K in his last report.
• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: The shortest possible explanation in New York is that nobody still has the faintest clue what Rudy Giuliani is up to. Food for thought, though, comes from the new Marist poll (pdf). They find Giuliani beating Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand 54-40. They also found Giuliani with the upper hand in a potential (if extremely unlikely) primary against ex-Gov. George Pataki; Giuliani demolishes him, 71-24. (For some reason, Marist didn't poll Gillibrand/Pataki, but Rasmussen just did, finding Gillibrand beating Pataki 45-42. Rasmussen didn't poll Gillibrand/Giuliani, though.)
Marist (pdf) also has gubernatorial numbers, which don't offer any surprises beyond the sheerly absurd dimensions of David Paterson's unpopularity. Paterson has a 20/76 approval, and a 30/63 verdict on whether people want him to run for re-election. Paterson loses the primary to Andrew Cuomo, 72-21, although he ties Rick Lazio in the general, 44-44. Cuomo makes short work of Lazio, 69-24. They also have Giuliani numbers (which are looking obsolete now): Rudy annihilates Lazio in the primary, 84-13, and beats Paterson 60-35, but loses to Cuomo, 53-43.
• CA-Gov: Republican Ex-Rep. Tom Campbell announces that he's passed the $1 million cumulative mark in fundraising for the gubernatorial race, which indicates he's at least getting some traction as people notice he's polling well. In most states, that would be pretty impressive. In California, where you have to reach more than 30 million sets of eyeballs and where $1 million is Meg Whitman's budget just for ivory backscratchers, though, it's kind of a drop in the bucket.
• OR-Gov: As quickly as he appeared, he went away; former Hewlett-Packard VP Steve Shields pulled the plug on his brief Democratic gubernatorial campaign, not having had much luck on the fundraising front. Meanwhile, SoS Bill Bradbury got a big boost in his uphill climb against ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber. Bradbury's environmentalist bona fides earned him an endorsement from Al Gore. (Also a likely factor: a long-running behind-the-scenes feud between Kitz and Gore.)
• TX-Gov: Rick Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison are both out with TV ads as they enter the stretch run toward their March gubernatorial primary. Perry attacks Washington (and by extension, KBH, who works there), while KBH is more intent on explaining that she's keeping her Senate job to fight against Democratic health care proposals.
• CO-07: Going from being a music promoter to a Representative is a strange career leap, but that's what Jimmy Lakey is fixing to do. The Colorado Republican has opened an exploratory committee to go up against Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter, although he'll need to get past Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier (who dropped down from the Senate race) first.
• FL-02: Al Lawson, the African-American state Senator who's challenging Blue Dog Rep. Allen Boyd in a Democratic primary, is out with an internal poll via The Research Group that actually gives Lawson the lead: 35-31. Boyd was a vote against health care reform and the stimulus, which may provide him some cover in the general in this now R+9 district, but probably hurts him in the primary, where African-Americans make up a sizable portion of the Democratic electorate.
• IA-03: The appearance yesterday of well-known wrasslin' coach Jim Gibbons was no deterrent to state Sen. Brad Zaun, setting up an epic smackdown in the GOP primary. Zaun, formerly the mayor of Des Moines suburb Urbandale, had made clear his interest in the race before Gibbons surfaced; he'll formally launch his campaign in early December.
• IL-10: State Rep. Beth Coulson, probably the only Republican in the field in the 10th with the name rec and moderate profile needed to overcome the 10th's Democratic lean, is meeting with RNC head Michael Steele today to discuss her campaign -- the same Steele who has warned moderates that, in the wake of NY-23, he's gunning for them. She's loudly touting the meeting in the press, although it's unclear whether she's trying to make clear she's a GOP team player, or that she's trying to play up her moderate reputation by standing up to Steele.
• MD-01: If there's one freshman Democrat who's looking endangered coming into 2010, it's Frank Kratovil, who barely won in a dark-red district thanks in large measure to a lousy opponent (Andy Harris) and an Obama downdraft. The Harris camp is now out with an internal poll via the Tarrance Group that quantifies that, giving that same lousy opponent a 52-39 edge over Kratovil, despite Kratovil's 43/30 favorables.
• MN-01: Former state Rep. Allen Quist followed through on his plans to challenge Rep. Tim Walz in the rural 1st District. Quist has been out of the limelight for a while, but was a darling of the religious right in the 1990s; his wife is Michele Bachmann's district director.
• NY-23: Appropriately enough, given that Fort Drum is the largest employer in his district, Bill Owens was given a seat on the Armed Services Committee, taking former Rep. Ellen Tauscher's spot. Owens himself is a former Air Force captain, and his predecessor, Army Secretary John McHugh, had been the top-ranking Republican on the committee. (D)
Also in the 23rd, it's all over but the shouting of the wronged wingnuts. The Watertown Times reports that Owens leads Hoffman by 3,105 with 3,072 absente ballots left to count. Also worth noting is the increasinglyhostile tone of the Watertown Times (maybe the district's largest newspaper) to Hoffman and his post-electoral antics, which bodes ill for getting a fair shake out of them if he runs again.
• NRCC: There's a very important addendum to yesterday's story about the NRCC's big TV spot ad buy to go against Vic Snyder, John Spratt, and Earl Pomeroy. The total of the ad buy was $6,300, including only 35 gross rating points in the Charlotte market (2,000 GRPs are considered "saturation-level"), and the ads are running only on Fox News. In other words, the cash-strapped NRCC isn't paying for anybody to actually see the ads -- they're just a foot in the door to get media coverage of the ads.
• Redistricting: The DLCC's blog has an interesting look at the redistricting conundrums in Louisiana, where the loss of a House seat and a Katrina-remodeled population loom large. Dems ostensibly control the legislature but also face a Republican gubernatorial veto (although Dems control the tiebreaking Supreme Court, too).
With the exception of a Rasmussen sample from July, Barbara Boxer has been posting double-digit leads against her Republican opposition. Today's release from the respected Field Poll is no exception; she beats former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina by 14 and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore by 17. Boxer is hovering right around the safety zone of 50% -- same with her approvals, which are 48/39 -- but considering the approvals of her opponents (9/9 for DeVore, not well-known outside Orange County, and 12/16 for Fiorina, reviled in tech circles for her HP tenure) she's looking pretty safe.
The more interesting part of the poll is the GOP primary, where the more conservative DeVore is starting to draw even with Fiorina. Based on trendlines from March, DeVore isn't gaining so much as Fiorina is losing support to the "undecided" column, as she seems to be racing Meg Whitman to see whose campaign can implode first, what with Fiorina's own tepid voting record and the universally-panned launch of her new website.
• AZ-Sen: It's been a rumor all year, but it just won't die: ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth is reportedly still interested in challenging John McCain in the GOP primary next year. McCain already has a primary challenge from the fringey right, in the form of former Minutemen leader Chris Simcox.
• FL-Sen: Although Rep. Corrine Brown doesn't seem to be taking any steps to get into the Dem field, it looks like Rep. Kendrick Meek still may not get the primary all to himself: former Miami mayor Maurice Ferre is signaling his interest in the race. Ferre is 74; he was the first Hispanic (he's Puerto Rican) to be elected Miami mayor. Meanwhile, Meek is the beneficiary of yet another Bill Clinton fundraiser; this is the Big Dog's fourth on behalf of Meek, a prominent Hillary Clinton endorser in 2008. Finally, Karl Rove is weighing in on the Florida senate primary, albeit just with a $1,000 donation and no loud public pronouncement: he's backing Marco Rubio.
• IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk says he's raised $1.6 million for the 3rd quarter, leaving him with $2.3 million cash on hand. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias hasn't made any report yet, but ended the 2nd quarter with $1.65 million on hand.
• NV-Sen: The heat is getting turned up on John Ensign; Barbara Boxer confirmed today that the Senate Ethics Committee will be taking up the little matter of getting a lobbying job for cuckolded ex-staffer Doug Hampton and then steering him clients as a parting gift. Meanwhile, the GOP's new candidate in the 2010 Senate race, Sue Lowden, is still clinging to Ensign, standing by earlier pro-Ensign comments at an Elko appearance on Friday, saying that she hopes to have Ensign campaigning on behalf of Republican candidates (including, presumably, herself) next year.
• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold seems to be sitting pretty, with high favorables and little in the way of GOP opposition. His likeliest opponent is Madison real estate developer Terrence Wall, but Wisconsin's Blogging Blue makes a nice catch about Wall: he loves doing business in Wisconsin so much that all 16 of his business entities are incorporated in Delaware.
• AZ-Gov: Another minor GOP player is jumping into the gubernatorial primary against appointed incumbent Jan Brewer. Former state GOP chair (during the early 1980s) and former member of the university system Board of Regents John Munger is in the race. He joins Brewer and Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker, with state Treasurer Dean Martin and some other higher-profile figures considering it too.
• CA-Gov: Maybe this explains why alleged Republican Meg Whitman is running for governor and not for senate: turns out she endorsed Barbara Boxer in 2004 as part of Technology Leaders for Boxer, and gave her $4,000. No word yet on whether Whitman actually got around to voting for her, though.
• MN-Gov: A straw poll at the Minnesota GOP convention sees former state House minority leader Marty Seifert in pole position; he pulled in 37% of the vote among nine candidates. Little-known state Rep. Tom Emmer finished second at 23%, and former state Auditor Pat Anderson was third with 14%. Norm Coleman was also seen mingling with convention-goers (he got a few write-in votes although his name wasn't on the ballot); he says he hasn't fully ruled out running, saying he'll make a decision early next year.
• SC-Gov: Republican AG Henry McMaster, who's running to succeed Mark Sanford as governor, has run into his own little ethical snafu. He's having to return $32,500 in illegal contributions that came from five attorneys after he had hired them to work on cases for the state.
• SD-Gov: Republican Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard officially kicked off his campaign for the 2010 gubernatorial race. In an apparently all-Scandinavian-American rumble, he'll face off against state Senate majority leader Dave Knudson in the GOP primary, and the winner will face Democratic state Senate minority leader Scott Heidepriem.
• VA-Gov: The money keeps pouring into the Virginia governor's race. The DNC is throwing another $1 million into Creigh Deeds' kitty. Also, the RGA is going on the air with a huge ad buy in the DC market with an ad featuring a testy post-debate Deeds interview.
• WI-Gov (pdf): The Univ. of Wisconsin and Wisconsin Policy Research Institute poll the Wisconsin governor's race, but primary fields only. Unknowns rule the day: on the Dem side, Milwaukee mayor and ex-Rep. Tom Barrett (who hasn't confirmed his interest) beats Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, 38-16. On the GOP side, Milwaukee Co. Exec Scott Walker beats ex-Rep. Mark Neumann 39-14, with 4% to Tim Michels. (Barrett is the best known of all the candidates, with a 36/12 favorable.) Current Gov. Jim Doyle heads out of office in net negative territory, with a 43/52 approval, although that still beats a lot of other governors right now.
• WY-Gov: Most of the major players seem to be standing around and waiting to see whether current Gov. Dave Freudenthal challenges the state's term limit laws in court in order to grab a third term. One Republican isn't waiting though, becoming the first announced big-ticket opponent: rancher Ron Micheli. He was a state Representative for 16 years and state Agriculture Director under Republican Gov. Jim Geringer.
• NV-03: It looks like the GOP may successfully trade up in the 3rd District. With banker John Guedry bailing out of the race for personal reasons, now it looks like they've coaxed former state Sen. Joe Heck out of the gubernatorial primary (where he initially looked like he had a shot at taking out unpopular incumbent Jim Gibbons, but turned into a long shot with the likely inclusion of ex-AG, ex-judge Brian Sandoval in the primary) and into the race against Dem freshman Rep. Dina Titus instead. Heck is still officially mum, but will have an announcement later this week.
• PA-11: Democratic Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O'Brien had been a long-rumored primary challenger to long-time Rep. Paul Kanjorski in the 11th, and he made it official over the weekend. O'Brien is clearly emphasizing what a young go-getter he is (compared with the aging Kanjorski), kicking things off with 30 straight hours of campaigning.) Kanjo remains undeterred though, reiterating that he's running for re-election and looking forward to the debate.
• Generic Ballot: PPP fires up another warning flare about 2010, looking at some of the generic ballot crosstabs. Among voters who don't like either party, they opt for the GOP 50-14. But there's a disparity by party line among unhappy voters. The unhappy Republicans will still vote GOP, 66-18, but the unhappy Democrats say they'll cross over to the GOP, 48-26. On the plus side, there aren't as many unhappy Democrats as there are unhappy Republicans (20% instead of 33%).
• House: Biden Alert! The VP has been working overtime in the last month appearing at fundraisers for vulnerable House members, helping nearly a dozen members haul more than a collective $1 million. He's also been assisting with recruiting efforts, most notably with the successful score of Bethlehem mayor John Callahan in PA-15.
• CA-Sen (pdf): According to the Public Policy Institute of California, Barbara Boxer is holding fairly good approval ratings, as she approaches a possibly competitive (and definitely expensive) re-election: 53/32, really no different from her stodgier colleague Dianne Feinstein, 54/32. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who isn't running again, fares much worse: 30/61.
• CO-Sen: As we're staring down the barrel of a competitive Democratic primary in the Senate race, three of the state's five House Dems have gotten behind incumbent appointee Michael Bennet (John Salazar, Jared Polis, and Betsy Markey), along with fellow Sen. Mark Udall. However, Diana DeGette and Ed Perlmutter are staying neutral. Other Bennet backers include current state House speaker Terrance Carroll.
• IL-Sen, IL-Gov: The Cook County Dems made their endorsements in the 2010 primaries, which are less than half a year away. No major surprises: they endorsed state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias for Senate and incumbent Pat Quinn for Governor. That rankled Quinn's rival, Comptroller Dan Hynes, who hit Quinn for seeking machine backing when, back in his reformer days, Quinn had been an advocate for open primaries. Meanwhile, in the Senate primary, upstart Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman is taking the clean politics approach, saying that he'll accept no PAC money for his campaign.
• MA-Sen: The fields are starting to solidify in Massachusetts: Rep. John Tierney, from MA-06 in Boston's northern suburbs, decided against a run. He has less money than his fellow House members and polled in the single digits in the lone poll of the primary. Rep. Richard Neal is the only House member left who initially seemed like a potential candidate (mostly because of his bankroll), but his silence in the last week has been telling. On the GOP side of the aisle, state Senator Scott Brown got in the race over the weekend; with Mitt Romney, Andy Card, Kerry Healey, and Christy Mihos out, Brown is about as good as it's going to get for the Republicans.
• NH-Sen: Here's one more Republican from the Republican wing of the party pondering a run in the New Hampshire Senate primary: businessman and RNC member Sean Mahoney. Mahoney says he's gotten a push from the conservative grassroots to run, as many of them seem uneasy with the Beltway coronation of Kelly Ayotte, whose inability to take a position... any position... is taking on epic proportions. (If Mahoney's name seems vaguely familiar, he lost the 2002 NH-01 GOP primary to Jeb Bradley.)
• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Here's the rumor du jour, and it's a doozy: Rudy Giuliani is being pushed by state GOP leaders to run for Senate against Kirsten Gillibrand instead of for Governor; apparently the state GOP is convinced that Andrew Cuomo, not David Paterson, will be the Dems' nominee next year. Nobody has polled Gillibrand/Giuliani before, but that seems like it would be a close race, if the Gillibrand/Pataki numbers are any indication (of course, there's a big stylistic difference between the vanilla George Pataki and the dictatorial Rudy, just that they're both known quantities at this point). Perhaps (between this rumor and Rudy's failed coup against Ed Cox) sensing that the Rudy won't be getting into the Governor's race -- or maybe just because of his own special brand of tone-deafness -- ex-Rep. Rick Lazio made his formal announcement today that he's running for Governor.
• AZ-Gov: In the "blast from the past" file, former Governor Fife Symington is now considering a comeback by running in the GOP primary against appointed Governor Jan Brewer. That's the same Symington who was forced out of office in 1997 after conviction for bank fraud, although his conviction was overturned on appeal and he was subsequently pardoned by Bill Clinton. Strangely, we could see a re-run of the 1990 gubernatorial election, if Symington and Dem AG Terry Goddard face off against each other again.
• NJ-Gov (pdf): One more poll (from Monmouth) showing Chris Christie with a persistent, but shrinking, edge over Jon Corzine in the New Jersey gubernatorial race. Among likely voters, Christie has a 47-39 edge (with 5 for Chris Daggett), much better than August's 50-36 Christie lead but comparable to July's 45-37 lead. Hold onto your hats, though: among registered voters, Corzine actually leads, 41-40 (with 6 for Daggett). In the fine print, Corzine is continuing to solidify his standing among Democrats, up to 77% among Dems (up from 73% in August and 67% in July). The challenge here, apparently, will be getting those Dems in the 'unlikely voter' column to show up.
• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber doesn't seem like he'll have the Dem primary to himself: former SoS Bill Bradbury looks like he's on track to run. Bradbury has hired a campaign manager, and announces that Kitzhaber's predecessor as Governor, Barbara Roberts, will be on hand for his announcement next week. One other possible challenger in the Dem primary, one that no one had thought of before, is Clackamas County Commission Chair Lynn Peterson. Peterson is 40 and still building her reputation; cynics' knee-jerk reaction might be to think she's angling for the Lt. Governor slot, but Oregon doesn't even have a Lt. Governor. Finally, everyone's still waiting to see what Rep. Peter DeFazio does; he was supposed to have made a decision by Labor Day but says he'll keep on anaylzing his choices.
• AR-02: Politico has an unusual rumor: former US Attorney and former Karl Rove right-hand-man Tim Griffin is considering a run against Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder in the Little Rock-based 2nd (which, in wake of 2008, is, at R+5, the most Dem-friendly district in Arkansas). Considering that Griffin had earlier pondered and declined a run in AR-Sen, the step down doesn't make much sense at all, as he'd most likely have a better shot against the vulnerable Blanche Lincoln, who hasn't polled well lately. The entrenched Snyder may create the appearance of being vulnerable because of his bank account, but that's mostly because he refuses to fundraise during off years.
• IL-10: State Rep. Beth Coulson, running for the GOP primary nod for the open seat in the 10th against several self-funders, got endorsements from two members of the GOP House delegation: fellow suburban moderate Judy Biggert... and, in an apparent nod to the reality of what works in the 10th, from the state delegation's wingnuttiest member, John Shimkus, last seen ducking out early from Obama's health care address to beat the lines at the urinal.
• WI-03: State Sen. Dan Kapanke gives the GOP a rather strong candidate against Rep. Ron Kind (or more ominously, an open seat, in case Kind decides to run for Governor). However, Dems succeeded in taking Kapanke down a peg and dinging him for $38,100 ($100 in statutory damages plus $38K in legal fees) for violating state open records laws.
• NYC: One more poll of the Democratic primaries for the city offices, before tomorrow's election. The mayor's race is actually the least interesting, with Comptroller William Thompson beating city councilor Tony Avella 46-17. Ex-PA Mark Green has pole position in the Public Advocate's race, but the question is whether he can beat the 40% threshold in order to avoid a runoff. Currently, he's at 36%, with city councilor Bill DeBlasio at 20%. The Comptroller's race is almost certainly headed for a runoff, but city councilor John Liu seems to be breaking out from the pack, at 34%; he leads Melinda Katz at 23% and David Yassky at 19%. In case you're wondering what's up with the Manhattan DA race, there is one recent poll of the race, an internal from the Cyrus Vance Jr. camp. It gives Vance a 30-24 edge over Leslie Crocker Synder, with Richard Aborn at 15.
• Census: The Census Bureau is severing its relationship with ACORN, which was working with the Census to promote Census participation. Loosely translated, Director Robert Groves said that the organization was enough of a distraction that it was becoming a net liability instead of asset in terms of getting people to participate in the Census.
• CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina has announced that she's forming an exploratory committee to start raising funds for a possible run against Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer next year. It's still a bit amazing to me that someone like Fiorina, whose management practices were roundly criticized during her troubled leadership of HP, is being considered a serious Senate candidate... but I guess the ability to self-fund a Senate campaign in California buys all the cred you need with the NRSC these days.
• FL-Sen: Add another pair of names to the ever-growing list of possible interim Senators under consideration to be appointed by Florida Gov. Charlie Crist. Crist will interview state Rep. Jennifer Carroll, the sole African-American Republican in the Florida legislature, and University of North Florida President/ex-Jacksonville Mayor John Delaney today.
• IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Businessman Chris Kennedy, whose interest in running for office next year appeared to be on the wane in recent weeks, announced yesterday that he won't run for the Democratic gubernatorial or Senate nomination next year. That leaves the Senate primary in the hands of state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Chicago Urban League President/ex-Blagojevich aide Cherlye Jackson; the gubernatorial nomination is set to be an expensive fight between incumbent Pat Quinn and Comptroller Dan Hynes.
• MD-01: GOP state Sen. E.J. Pipkin, who helped play spoiler in last year's House primary that saw the defeat of incumbent Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, is staying coy about a possible run against Democratic frosh Rep. Frank Kratovil in 2010. Pipkin says that he'll make a decision "relatively soon", but reminds us that the definition of "relatively soon" is highly flexible. National Republicans are currently closing ranks around the man who screwed the pooch for Team Red last year, state Sen. Andy Harris.
• NC-08: NRCC recruitment chair Kevin McCarthy is continuing his magical mystery tour of the nation, and is currently scouring the great state of North Carolina in the hopes of wrangling a few challengers in Dem-held districts, including one to challenge class of '08 member Larry Kissell. McCarthy says that he doesn't think the party will fall back on ex-Rep. Robin Hayes, but Hayes himself still says his plans for 2010 are still "undetermined".
• NV-03: The NRCC has finally found its huckleberry to challenge freshman Rep. Dina Titus in the Las Vegas suburbs. John Guedry, a former VP at Nevada's City National Bank, filed his statement of candidacy this week to try his hand at this D+2 district. While DC Republicans seem content to run the neophyte Guedry, he may face a contested primary from former Clark County GOP chair Brian Scroggins.
• NY-15: State Sen. Bill Perkins is denying reports that he's planning on challenging longtime Democratic Rep. Charlie Rangel in a primary contest next year, saying that a run for Congress is "not on the agenda" right now. Roll Call rattles off a small band of local officeholders who might be interested, though, including NYC Councilwoman Inez Dickens, state Assemblyman Adriano Espaillat, Councilman Robert Jackson, Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV and Assemblyman Keith Wright.
• SC-Gov: The crowded race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in South Carolina got slightly leaner this weekend when state House Minority Leader Harry Ott terminated his candidacy. Yesterday, he announced that he's endorsing state Senator Vincent Sheheen for the nod.
• UT-Gov: Newly-installed Republican Gov. Gary Herbert faces a special election next year for the right to earn the remainder of Jon Huntsman, Jr.'s term, but the path to get there just got a little bit clearer. Kirk Jowers, a prominent Utah political scientist who had lined up the support of several powerful state legislators (as well as an estimated $6-8 million campaign budget), announced yesterday that he won't challenge Herbert at next May's GOP nominating convention. Herbert could still face a challenge from a number of candidates highlighted by CQ, including two state senators, John Valentine and Steve Urquhart, and state House Speaker David Clark.
• WI-03: Roll Call takes a look at the potential field that could emerge if Democratic Rep. Ron Kind bails from the House in order to run for Governor next year. While state Sen. Dan Kapanke is already in the race for the GOP, he could have company in the Republican primary from state Rep. Michael Huebsch and state Rep. Kitty Rhoades. For the Democrats, the early favorite for the nomination appears to be state Rep. Jennifer Shilling, a La Crosse-area pol with some significant fundraising prowess.
Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 53
Chuck DeVore (R): 29
(MoE: ±4%)
Research 2000 takes a very thorough look at the big two races in California next year, checking out pretty much every possible permutation left. Although we've seen some rather alarming polls for Democrats in the last few weeks, Democrats seem to be holding their own in California, with ex-Gov. and current AG Jerry Brown holding an appreciable edge in the Governor's race (up 6 on the likeliest GOP opponent, ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman) and Sen. Barbara Boxer with 20-point leads on her competition.
San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom doesn't fare as well in head-to-heads -- Whitman edges him out by 1, while he beats the other GOPers by 1 -- and that's reflected in his favorables. He's the only one of the five gubernatorial candidates who's in negative favorability territory, at 40/42 (Brown, by comparison, is at 48/37). While the primaries have been polled extensively, the only previous poll that has looked at the general election in CA-Gov is a Lake Research poll from March that had both Brown and Newsom beating their GOP rivals by margins well outside the MoE, so it seems like some erosion has happened on the governor's side (especially with Newson). With Whitman's endless millions that she's signaled her willingness to spend, this has the potential to get closer as the race goes on.
On the flipside, R2K's numbers give a much wider spread on the Boxer/Fiorina matchup than the recent Rasmussen poll; R2K's numbers on this race are pretty close to what the Field Poll found in March.
Finally, the poll also asks about the fate of a same-sex marriage initiative that may be on the ballot in 2010. The initiative would narrowly lose, 48-47, but that's indicative of some progress, as the same sample voted 51-45 in favor of Proposition 8 (and thus against same-sex marriage) last year, so there's been some improvement just in the last half a year.
• CA-Sen: Sorry none of us could be bothered to talk about this poll on Friday: Rasmussen polled the California Senate race again and found former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina gaining some ground on Sen. Barbara Boxer. Boxer leads 45-41 (it was 47-38 in March). Interestingly, though, Fiorina, who quite publicly drove HP into a ditch, already has negative favorable ratings (30/35, with 35% unsure), which has to be a bad sign for any challenger. Boxer is still in positive territory (50/47), so I have no idea to square those results with the head-to-head.
• IL-Sen: State treasurer Alexi Giannoulias had his official campaign launch this weekend, where he name-dropped Barack Obama at every opportunity.
• NY-Sen-B: Is this a sign that Rep. Carolyn Maloney may be backing away from the Senate race, or is she just sidetracked by the chaos in the House? She had been scheduled to announce her primary campaign against Kirsten Gillibrand today or tomorrow, but now Maloney tells the New York Post that the timetable is no longer in effect, and didn't say anything about a new timetable, other than to say that "This week we are confronting health care."
• AK-Gov: If the world seems a slightly lighter place today, it's because it's our first Sarah Palin-free day in a while; she turned the keys to the state over to Sean Parnell yesterday. I guess now I and other members of the media can, in honor of the American soldier, quit makin' stuff up about her.
• MA-Gov: The Boston Globe polled Deval Patrick's prospects and found he's still in trouble. (The poll was conducted on the Globe's behalf by often-clueless UNH, so take with the requisite spoonful of salt.) His job approvals are 35/56, and he narrowly loses head-to-heads with both prospective GOPers, 41-35 to Charlie Baker and 41-40 to Christy Mihos. If Dem-turned-Independent treasurer Tim Cahill gets in the race as planned, though, the Republicans fade into the background, as Cahill seems to vacuum up the anti-Patrick votes. Patrick and Cahill tie both matchups: 30-30-20 with Baker, and 31-31-18 with Mihos.
• NJ-Gov: Jon Corzine picked his Lt. Gov. running mate: state Sen. Loretta Weinberg, a 74-year-old granny from Bergen County noted for pushing for ethics reform. This comes instead of, as rumored, Apprentice winner Randal Pinkett. Those in the know seem to think that Corzine may have been motivated to pick her in order to emphasize ethics in the wake of the federal arrests of a swarm of lower elected officials, including some Corzine allies. The New York Times presents a dark picture of Corzine's campaign, framing the corruption sweep as one more blow that he can't handle, and actually starts speculating on what Dem might replace Corzine at the top of the ticket should be back out (it mentions Newark mayor Cory Booker and Rep. Frank Pallone). The NYT says Corzine still has no plans to bail, but state machine boss George Norcross is making no secret that he wants Corzine out of the race.
• VA-Gov: Barack Obama will be coming to Virginia to stump for Creigh Deeds, with both a public rally and private fundraiser on Aug. 6. This comes as GOP candidate Bob McDonnell has been seeking to increasingly go after Deeds on national issues, as at their first debate where McDonnell challenged Deeds on cap-and-trade and EFCA. Deeds may need some outside help, as he's had trouble nailing down some of the local big names, most prominently former Gov. Douglas Wilder.
• IL-10: State Rep. Julie Hamos says she'll officially announce tomorrow that she's running for the Democratic nod in the now-open 10th. She had been planning to run for AG until Lisa Madigan surprised everyone by deciding to run for another term. Instead, she joins a top-drawer field with state Sen. Michael Bond and 06/08 candidate Dan Seals already in.
• NY-23: We'll have to wait until tomorrow for Democrats in the 23rd District to have even a plan for picking a candidate, let alone have a candidate, as they seem to have not had much of a Plan B in the event that Darrel Aubertine didn't run. The Dems say they've received about 18 applications; Watertown Daily Times gotten confirmations from 06 nominee Michael Oot, 94 nominee Danny Francis, attorney Stuart Brody, attorney Keith Caughlin, and state assistant inspector general for Medicaid John Sullivan that they are among the 18. Meanwhile, Jim Kelly (no, not the quarterback) sounds like he's gearing up to run on the Conservative line.
• VA-05: Ex-Rep. Virgil Goode made it official that he won't be running against Tom Perriello to get his seat back. (Now maybe he can stop running around the district handing out oversize checks.) Speculation turns to GOP state Senator Rob Hurt and delegate Rob Bell, who don't have the name rec or fundraising power of Goode, but don't have the polarizing reputations either.
• WI-Gov: Hot on the heels of changing Ohio to Lean Dem yesterday, today we're downgrading the Wisconsin gubernatorial race to Lean Dem as well. We aren't reacting to any one recent event (the only twopolls so far have dramatically disparate results, but they average out to a tight race), but realized that we had no business keeping WI-Gov at Likely Dem if OH-Gov is going to be Lean Dem.
• CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina seems to be moving toward running against Barbara Boxer after all, not taking formal steps but rubbing elbows with the right people. Here's some ill-timed bad PR for her, though: Fiorina has been telling people that she's now CEO of her own company (Carly Fiorina Enterprises) and her own foundation (Fiorina Foundation), but neither one has been registered with the proper state or federal authorities... which might lead some to question her vaunted business organization skills.
• IL-Sen: The Fix reports that alleged field-clearing heavyweight Rep. Mark Kirk may still face a contested GOP primary in the Senate race; state party chair Andy McKenna, recruited as the GOP's Plan B, seems to be staying in for now, and the state's Republican congressional delegation is staying, at least publicly, neutral. The flashpoint may be Kirk's recent vote in favor of cap-and-trade.
• MO-Sen: In the "did he really just say that file?" Roy Blunt offers up a doozy: in a conservative talk radio interview, he said that maybe it would have been better if the federal government had never created Medicare, Medicaid, or VA health care, because it "distorts the marketplace." Way to put the senior citizen vote in play there, Roy!
• NV-Sen: Off-the-record GOP consultants say that a John Ensign resignation may be "on the table" and that there are worries that there may still be even more undisclosed payments to the Hamptons floating around. If there are public calls for resignation from the other key GOPers in Nevada -- Gov. Jim Gibbons, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, Rep. Dean Heller -- it's time to prepare the fork for sticking (of course, with two of those three in deep scandal of their own, there's a certain pot/kettle thing going on).
• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter made his first aggressive moves against possible primary challenger Rep. Joe Sestak today, calling him a "flagrant hypocrite" for not being a Democrat until 2006. (Sestak was an Independent during his decades of military service, and switched to Dem once he was out of the service.) Hmmm... remind me again which year Arlen Specter became a Democrat? Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the NRSC just can't help themselves from hiking the Appalachian Trail despite their efforts to fall back in love with Pat Toomey. They've been talking behind the scenes with state Sen. Jane Orie about running in the primary (although she's almost as conservative as Toomey, so it's not clear what benefit that would provide).
• AK-Gov: Guess who's saying "thanks but no thanks" to the assistance offered by the divine Sarah Palin: the GOP candidates in the two very-close blue-state gubernatorial races this year, Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell. (On the other hand, Rick Perry, who needs to rally every wingnut he can get his hands on in order to win his primary in Texas, welcomes her.) The Hill also sniffs out a number of other candidates facing possibly tough races who'd like her to stay far, far away, including Reps. Lee Terry, Frank Wolf, Mike Castle, and Pete Hoekstra. (In his efforts to become World's Most Tone-Deaf Man, Roy Blunt welcomes her help, though.) Finally, check out Peggy Noonan's authoritative takedown of Palin today; say what you will about the whole pure evil thing, the woman has a way with words.
• PA-Gov: With a lot of people looking at the Democratic field in the Governor's race and asking "is that all there is?" a familiar face is considering the race: Montgomery Co. Commissioner (and former Rep. and 2004 Senate candidate) Joe Hoeffel. In his favor, he'd be the only elected official from the Philly area in the race (Tom Knox is from Philly, but has never held office).
• IL-10: With Rep. Mark Kirk kindly leaving an open seat for us, both the Daily Herald and Roll Call take a look at the developing fields in this race. On the Dem side, the leading contenders are state Sens. Michael Bond (already in the race) and Susan Garrett. Dan Seals, who lost in 2006 and 2008 to Kirk, is also considering a third try. The only GOPer in the race is Patricia Bird, but businessman Dick Green and state Rep. Elizabeth Coulson are likely contestants.
• NY-23: Don't count out state Sen. Darrel Aubertine on becoming the Democratic candidate in NY-23, despite the ongoing craziness in the New York state Senate. Although the July 17 filing deadline is coming up and he hasn't made any noise about it, Aubertine is still considering it and will have the requisite family sit-down about it once he has the time (which maybe he'll have, now that the Senate is back to "normal").
• VA-05: Rep. Tom Perriello has become the focus in the tug-of-war over cap-and-trade. A week after the NRCC made him the sole target of a TV attack ad for voting in favor, the League of Conservation Voters is running thank-you ads in his central Virginia district.
• Mayors: Louisiana Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu has options, but he ruled out a third run at New Orleans mayor, for which he'd been considered front-runner. A run for Governor in 2011 (or maybe not until the open seat in 2015) now seems likelier. This leaves city councilor Arnie Fielkow in the driver's seat for the next mayoral election.
• Caucuses: This seems like an odd time for this to happen, in the middle of the fight over health care reform: the Congressional Progessive Caucus canned its executive director, Bill Goold, without much explanation.
• FL-Sen: It's poorly sourced, but conventional wisdom seems to be reaching some sort of critical mass on the idea that Gov. Charlie Crist will announce within the next week whether or not he will run for the open senate seat in Florida. Some say he is a "near lock" to switch over to the senate race.
• IL-Sen: Chris Kennedy, son of Robert F. Kennedy, is now publicly pondering entering the Illinois senate race. Kennedy has never held elective office; he's a developer who runs Chicago's Merchandise Mart. On the other hand, he's been a Chicago fixture most of his life, and has that certain last name. One source says there's an "85% chance" he'll do it.
• CA-Sen: In case there was any doubt, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer has officially announced her plans to seek re-election. (J)
• GA-Gov: State senator Eric Johnson has, with Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle dropping out of the gubernatorial race, switched from running for lieutenant governor to governor. He joins SoS Karen Handel, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, and state rep. Austin Scott in the hunt for the GOP nomination.
• AL-Gov: Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, Alabama's only Democratic appellate judge, is interested in joining the already-crowded field seeking the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. She would have to resign her position (in which case GOP governor Bob Riley would appoint a new chief justice) in order to campaign for governor, though.
• NH-01: Manchester mayor Frank Guinta is the likely candidate to take on Carol Shea-Porter, and he has produced an internal poll showing him trailing Shea-Porter 43-34. Shea-Porter is well-below the danger mark of 50, but on the other hand, Guinta isn't an unknown; he already represents nearly 20% of the district.
• ID-01: Are you there, God? It's me, Brain Fade. Ex-Rep. Bill Sali (R) sounds like he's angling to make a comeback against Democrat Walt Minnick next year. In an email to supporters, Sali says that he's "increasingly troubled by the direction our country is headed" and is asking his supporters to pray for him as he considers his political future. (J)
• SD-AL: South Dakota's Republican Secretary of State, Chris Nelson, has made known his interest in running for South Dakota's at-large House seat. Nelson, who's term-limited out, didn't seem to make this contingent on whether or not Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin ran for higher office, like the open governor's seat (which has been rumored, but doesn't seem to be taking shape).
• CA-47: The GOP is looking to Vietnamese-American assemblyman Van Tran as a candidate against Rep. Loretta Sanchez in this D+4 Orange County district. This very low-turnout district is about 15% Asian and 70% Hispanic.
• CA-26: Businessman Russ Warner, who ran unsuccessfully against GOP Rep. David Dreier in 2008 (and attempted to do the same in 2006, but ran into a snag in the form of a primary loss), says that he plans to run for a third time next year in this Dem-trending CD. (J)
• DCCC: Everybody's favorite new villainess, Michele Bachmann, has been so prolific with the oddball fringe-right comments lately that she's actually getting her own page at the DCCC's website. Imagine that: from backbencher to public enemy #1 in less than half a year!
• PA-Sen: The founder of the PA chapter of the Club for Growth has called on Pat Toomey to drop out (!), saying that he's too conservative for Pennsylvania. (No shit.) The Toomey camp fired back with some mostly non-responsive B.S. (D)
• CA-Gov: San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom made the official leap from exploring the California governor's race to being an officially announced candidate yesterday. He joins Lt. Gov. John Garamendi as the only formal candidates in the race, although Garamendi's campaign is on hold while he pursues the CA-10 special election.
• CA-Sen: The California GOP has lined up a "strong second choice" to challenge Barbara Boxer if ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina doesn't get in the race. African-American talk radio host Larry Elder, who was on Los Angeles's KABC for 15 years, is meeting with GOP officials, but still sidelined while waiting for Fiorina. (The pro-choice, pro-pot legalization Elder is very much from the libertarian wing of the party.) Assemblyman Chuck Devore is already officially a candidate, but the party seems unenthused about his odds.
• NC-Sen, NC-07: Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre says that his re-election to the House is his current "concentration", but when asked if he's considering a Senate bid, McIntyre told a local ABC affiliate that "you never say never to anything." A recent PPP poll had McIntyre trailing Richard Burr by only five points. (J)
• TN-09: Rep. Steve Cohen, as a white Jewish man representing a mostly African-American district, is going to always be vulnerable to primary challenges (as seen with last year's mudfest with Nikki Tinker). It looks like he'll be facing a serious test this year, as Memphis mayor Willie Herenton has formed an exploratory committee for the House race. Herenton is African-American and has been mayor since 1991, elected five times. On the other hand, there may be some Herenton fatigue going on in this district, as he is under federal investigation, was re-elected most recently with less than 50% of the vote, and announced his resignation in 2008 only to withdraw it shortly after.
• NY-20: You know it's over for Jim Tedisco when major Republicans are telling him to pack it in. Yesterday, ex-Rep. Tom Davis said it was over, and today, state senator Betty Little (who lost the special election nomination to Tedisco) and Dan Isaacs (who's running for state GOP chair) also called for the pulling of the plug. Isaacs is so upset that he's reduced to making up new words: "Tedisco appears not able to pull out a victory in an overwhelmingly Republican district; to me that's the final indignancy."
• MI-02: Roll Call takes a quick look at the race to replace retiring Rep. Pete Hoekstra. On the GOP side, former state rep. Bill Huizenga is the "biggest voice that's out there," but state senator Wayne Kuipers is poised to get in, as is former NFL player Jay Riemersma, who's well connected with the Christian right. (Notice a common thread in those names? This is the nation's most heavily Dutch-American district.) There are three Democratic state reps in the district, too, but none of them seem to be making a move yet.
• Michigan: An interesting white paper obtained from the Michigan GOP shows that they're quite pessimistic about getting back into power in 2010, despite the advantages they seem to be taking into next year's governor's race. Their suburban base has eroded since the 1990s, and their one-note message just isn't resonating with swing voters anymore.
• NRSC: Continuing our theme of unusually reality-based Republicans today, NRSC John Cornyn is sounding an increasingly cautious note about senate prospects in 2010, telling the Hill that it's "going to be real hard" to keep the Democrats from breaking 60 seats in 2010.
• NH-St. Sen.: Ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley, who lost twice to Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, has begun a new, more low-key chapter in his career, as a state senator. He easily won a special election, 61-39, over retired judge Bud Martin, to retain a GOP-held open seat. Dems continue to hold a 14-10 edge in the chamber.
John Sununu Sr. (the state GOP chair) didn't seem interested in spinning the victory as indication of a new GOP trend in New Hampshire, though. Always a charmer, Sununu's thoughts instead were:
He said Bradley's election actually helps [Gov. John] Lynch. Bradley could be counted on to sustain a Lynch veto of the gay marriage and transgender discrimination legislation, "if he (Lynch) finds the strength to veto that garbage," Sununu said.
• Site News: SSP is delighted to announce that we've just welcomed our six millionth visitor to the site. Thank you, everyone! (D)
• NY-20: The NRCC is already using the paper-thin margin in NY-20 last night as the springboard for a whole new fundraising e-mail pitch: the Dems are trying to "pull a Franken" and "steal" the election in the courts, so please send lawyers, guns, and money. Eric Kleefeld has a thought on why this is good news! For Pete Sessions!
One problem Murphy might have is that Al Franken's lawyers aren't available right now. And in Tedisco's favor, Norm Coleman's attorneys are busy, too.
The Fix has obtained some Democratic projections of how things will shake out after all absentees are counted (they're projecting Murphy by 210). This appears to be based on performance rates in the counties where the absentees came from (in other words, there seem to be disproportionately more absentees coming from pro-Murphy counties than Saratoga).
• AK-Sen: It happened a few months too late to save Ted Stevens' job, but the DOJ has finally dropped its frequently-bungled case against Stevens after further instances of prosecutorial misconduct arose.
• CT-Sen: One more 'oopsie' for Chris Dodd: he blew through a lot of his campaign war chest on his ill-advised 2008 presidential run (he transferred $4.7 million from his 2010 senate kitty to his presidential campaign). He's currently at only $670K cash on hand, compared with $1.6 million at this same point in his 2004 re-election.
• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek plays Gallant to Chris Dodd's Goofus: he raised a whopping $1.5 million in the first quarter, as he tries to nail down frontrunner status for the Democratic nomination.
• CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina, who was briefly sidelined by treatment for breast cancer, seems ready to get back into the political arena. She's "seriously considering" entering the race against Barbara Boxer.
• OK-Gov, OK-04: SSP's all-time favorite punching bag, Tom Cole, looks to be staying where he is. He's declined to run for Oklahoma governor, leaving fellow Rep. Mary Fallin in the driver's seat for the GOP nomination.
• TX-10: Democrat Jack McDonald, an Austin-area businessman running for the seat of GOP Rep. Mike McCaul, has announced that his campaign has raised over $300,000 in its first five weeks. Those are some pretty impressive numbers at this stage in the game. (J)
• NRCC/NRSC: Remember the brouhaha over the big NRCC/NRSC fundraising dinner where no one could figure out whether or not Sarah Palin was going to keynote, where it turned out that the governor's office and SarahPAC had no idea what each other were doing? Well, amateur hour is continuing apace in Anchorage, as now she's off again. In her place, Newt Gingrich (who would have ever predicted the day when Newt Gingrich would be seen, by comparison, as the GOP's sober, rational elder statesman?).
• History: PolitickerNY takes an intersting trip down memory lane, looking at some of the greatest hits among previous close House elections, like CT-02 in 1994 and IN-08 in 1984.
The bad news for Barbara Boxer is that she's not terribly popular; only 42% of Californians are inclined to re-elect her, while 43% are inclined not to. The good news is, there's nobody that Californians are inclined to like better. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has been considered the GOP's best bet in this seat (despite his not having publicly expressed any interest in the race), but the new Field Poll shows him getting demolished. This is a much bigger margin than the R2K poll from two months ago that gave Boxer a 9-point edge, but that's before the state-level budget crisis took him down (and, to be fair, just about every governor) a few pegs.
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina doesn't fare any better, and while her prognosis is supposedly good after breast cancer surgery last week, she's hardly a lock for the race either. The GOP may be left with little-known and little-liked state assemblyman Chuck DeVore. Either way, Boxer doesn't seem to be facing much danger any more.
Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 49
Arnold Schwarzenegger (R): 40
(MoE: ±4%)
First, here's the bad news: Barbara Boxer is under the 50% mark that represents relative safety for an incumbent. The rest of the story is pretty good: that's against Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is the best-known and probably most popular Republican in California, a guy who many people have feared would convincingly defeat Boxer or at least turn this expensive blue-state seat into a top-tier tossup.
And that presumes that Schwarzenegger even runs, which may not be likely at this point, as his popularity (which enjoyed a resurgence just in time for his re-election in 2006) seems to be waning again. The same sample gives him 42/51 favorable/unfavorable ratings (note that almost everyone in the state has an opinion, meaning he'd have to start changing minds instead of just winning over undecideds).
Californians aren't that red-hot about Boxer either (she has a lukewarm 48/46 favorable/unfavorable). But if Arnold says 'hasta la vista' to electoral politics, with the other potentially strong statewide California Republicans (Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman) eyeing the governor's seat, and with probably none of the GOP House members willing to give up their safe seats on a fool's errand, it's possible she might only draw second- (or third-) tier opposition again.
