Some states such as California have districts that almost never switch parties. In 2006-2010 though, Arizona's House seats kept switching parties with 6 party switches throughout those years. Before 2006, Arizona had a 6-2 Republican map and after the 2008 elections, it was 5-3 Democratic. After 2010 though, the Republican tide hit here and the delegation shifted to 5-3 Republican. Arizona's 7th and 8th Congressional District in 2010 also were close to switching parties although Raul Griljava (D) and Gabrielle Giffords (D) held their respective seats. Why was Arizona filled with competitive districts? They had an independent commission that drew the maps. Although Republicans hold the trifecta by holding the State Legislature and the Governorship, they have no power over redistricting because the commission draws the lines. I drew this map predicting what the commission will draw. Although a few of the districts such as the 5th and the 1st are competitive, I assume that this map will be a 5-4 Republican map. This is fair for Arizona because 5-4 Republican is similar to the partisan makeup of Arizona which leans Republican in most elections. I also strengthened many of the incumbents in this map such as Raul Griljava (D) and Gabrielle Giffords (D). My map has 1 Safe Democratic, 2 Likely Democratic, 1 Lean Democratic, 2 Lean Republican, and 3 Safe Republican seats. Anyway, here are the maps:
Arizona's 1st Congressional District Paul Gosar (R) Blue
Partisan Data: McCain (estimated) 55%
Demographics: 19.2% Native American, 17.1% Hispanic, 59.5% White
Demographics 18+: 16.7% Native American, 14.6% Hispanic, 64.7% White
Old Demographics: 22.4% Native American, 16.4% Hispanic, 58.4% White
Communities: Flagstaff, Prescott, Sierra Vista
Status: Lean Republican
The 1st district does not undergo major changes as it loses Florence and Coolridge in Pinal County. The 1st district picks up all of Cochise County from the 8th district. Cochise County voted 59% for McCain and has large numbers of military members. It also helps make the district more Republican. The 1st district also loses part of Republican Gila County. Although these changes probably make Gosar's district a point more Republican, he can still face a tough race. Ann Kirkpatrick (D), the former representative of the 1st district may run. She was one of the few Democrats in a district McCain won to vote against both the Stupak Amendment and the Affordable Care Act. She lost by 6 points which is not a nail biter but narrower than expected. A possibility though is that a Native American candidate may challenge her in the primary. A possible candidate is openly gay Navajo State Senator Jack Jackson (D) who almost ran for the 1st congressional district in 2006. On the other hand, Kirkpatrick has support with the Navajo Community because she received endorsements in 2010 from many Navajo leaders including Dr. Peterson Zeh, the Navajo Nation President in 2010. This may encourage Navajos, the largest Native American tribe in the 1st district to support Kirkpatrick instead of supporting a Navajo politician for the seat.
Arizona's 2nd Congressional District Trent Franks (R) Green
Partisan Data: McCain (estimated) 62%
Demographics: 17.6% Hispanic, 72.6% White
Demographics 18+: 14.1% Hispanic, 77.3% White
Old Demographics: 14.2% Hispanic, 78.4% White
Communities: Lake Havasu City, Surprise, Peoria
Status: Safe Republican
The 2nd district undergoes a few changes. It gains conservative La Paz County from the 7th district and keeps the string to the Hopi Reservation intact. The lines there may look convoluted but the Hopi do not want to be represented in the same district as the Navajo so the 2nd district represents them. The 2nd district also retains western Maricopa County which is one of the fastest growing areas in the state. Surprise had 39,000 people in 2000 but has 117,000 today. Most of these newcomers are Republicans and the 2nd becomes more Republican as it loses some Hispanic precincts in Glendale. Franks should have no problems winning reelection in this conservative district.
Phoenix Area
Arizona's 3rd Congressional District Ben Quayle (R) Purple
Partisan Data: McCain (estimated) 55%
Demographics: 19.2% Hispanic, 70.4% White
Demographics 18+: 15.8% Hispanic, 74.6% White
Old Demographics: 14.1% Hispanic, 78.5% White
Communities: Phoenix, Glendale, Paradise
Status: Lean Republican
The 3rd district becomes a point more Democratic as it loses Republican areas in northern Maricopa County such as Cave Creek and Carefree. The 3rd district gains a few Hispanic precincts in Glendale but retains its center in northern Phoenix. Although Quayle won by 11 points in 2010, it was a Republican year and his district is growing more Democratic. Also, Quayle is very conservative and ran an ad saying "Obama was the worst president ever" so his far right views could hurt him against a moderate Democrat in a Democratic year. Jon Hulburd (D) who challenged Quayle last year could run again in 2012 when Obama will probably contest Arizona.
Arizona's 4th Congressional District Ed Pastor (D) Red
Partisan Data: Obama (estimated) 65%
Demographics: 8.1% African American, 59.8% Hispanic, 26.0% White
Demographics 18+: 8.3% African American, 53.2% Hispanic, 32.2% White
Old Demographics: 7.5% African American, 58.0% Hispanic, 29.3% White
Communities: Phoenix
Status: Safe Democratic
The 4th district's lines stay extremely similar to the current ones but there are a couple of changes. The 4th district picks up a few Hispanic precincts from the 3rd district near the intersection of Northern Ave. and Route 17. The 4th also gives a few heavily Hispanic precincts on the eastern Phoenix border to the 5th district in order to make the 5th district more winnable for a Democrat. Besides these minor changes, the 4th district's lines stay extremely similar to their current form. The district remains heavily Hispanic and Democratic.
Arizona's 5th Congressional District Dave Schweikert (R) Yellow
Partisan Data: Obama (estimated) 52%
Demographics: 5.1% African American, 4.5% Asian, 30.2% Hispanic, 55.2% White
Demographics 18+: 4.9% African American, 4.7% Asian, 25.2% Hispanic, 61.2% White
Old Demographics: 2.7% African American, 3.3% Asian, 13.3% Hispanic, 76.8% White
Communities : Scottsdale, Tempe, Mesa
Status: Lean Democratic
This district undergoes major changes and becomes more Democratic as it loses conservative northern Scottsdale. To compensate for losing northern Scottsdale, the 5th district gains Hispanic neighborhoods in Mesa, Chandler and Phoenix. The less Hispanic parts of Mesa and Chandler are in the conservative 6th district. These changes bring the district's Hispanic population up to 29% and the 18+ population to 24%. With the addition of the Hispanic areas, the district becomes more Democratic so Democrats have a stronger shot at winning here. Harry Mitchell (D), the district's representative in 2010 will be 72 at the time of the 2012 election but he may run. If he does not, possible candidates include his son Mark Mitchell (D), the Vice Mayor of Tempe. Arizona Senate Minority Leader Dave Schapira (D) also from Tempe could run here too.
Arizona's 6th Congressional District Jeff Flake (R) Teal
Partisan Data: McCain (estimated) 64%
Demographics: 14.7% Hispanic, 75.1% White
Demographics 18+: 12.1% Hispanic, 78.8% White
Old Demographics: 17.2% Hispanic, 76.6% White
Communities: Apache Junction, Gilbert, Mesa
Status: Safe Republican
The area around Mesa and Apache Junction is one of the fastest growing areas in the nation so the 6th district had to shed population. It grew more Republican as well because it lost western Chandler and western Mesa, both swing areas with a growing Hispanic population. The 6th district also gained the Gila River Indian Reservation which is Democratic but should not alter the political leanings of the 6th district much. Although this district is too conservative to elect a Democrat, the Republicans could face a bruising primary if Jeff Flake (R) retires to run for Senate. The Republican bench is large here and potential candidates include State Senator Thayer Veschoor (R), State Senator Chuck Grey (R), Mesa Mayor Scott Smith (R) or Superintendent of Public Instruction John Huppenthal (R). If Huppenthal ran, he would probably win the primary due to his power as the former Senate Majority Leader but he may want to remain the Superintendent of Public Instruction. Anyway, unless a powerful candidate such as Huppenthal ran who can clear the field, the 6th district will face a large primary.
Tucson Area
Arizona's 7th Congressional District Raul Griljava (D) Gray
Obama (estimated) 59%
Demographics: 58.0% Hispanic, 4.0% African American, 31.7% White
Demographics 18+: 52.6% Hispanic, 4.0% African American, 37.5% White
Old Demographics: 2.8% African American, 50.6% Hispanic, 38.6% White
Communities: Phoenix, Yuma, Tucson
Status: Likely Democratic
Griljava won by 6 points in a closer than expected race against teabagger Ruth McClung (R) despite his district's high Hispanic population. I made some changes to his district in order to strengthen him. Also, his district's current Hispanic 18+ population is below 50% so making Griljava's district more Hispanic helps boost the Hispanic 18+ population above 50%. It is important to keep the Hispanic 18+ population above 50% because the VRA requires that some districts be not only minority majority but have an 18+ population above 50% too.
Arizona's 8th Congressional District Gabrielle Giffords (D) slate blue
Partisan Data: Obama (estimated) 50%
Demographics: 29.2% Hispanic, 60.8% White
Demographics 18+: 24.7% Hispanic, 65.9% White
Old Demographics: 18.2% Hispanic, 73.9% White
Communities: Tucson, Oro Valley, Catalina
Status: Likely Democratic if Giffords runs, lean Democratic if not
First, I wish Giffords a full recovery from the Tucson shooting last January. If she recovers fully but decides not to return to politics, it is possible her husband Mark Kelly (D), one of the astronauts on the Endeavor will run in her place. Spouses of representatives often replace the representative when the representative is unable to run. Lois Capps (D) in Santa Barbara, Ca replaced Walter Capps (D), Mary Bono (R) replaced Sonny Bono (R) in Riverside County, Ca. Spouses are not always successful though as Stephanie Moore (D) learned when she unsuccessfully ran for her husband's seat in Kansas. Anyway, if Giffords wants to return to politics, she can run for her House seat or Jon Kyls' (R) open U.S Senate seat. Even if she does not run for the 8th district, the Democrat here will have a more favorable district. Giffords won last year by 4,000 votes and I removed all of Cochise County which she lost by 4,000 votes. I also removed all her district's territory in Pinal County which she lost by 1,200 votes. If the election were held under her district's current lines excluding Cochise and Pinal Counties, Giffords would win by 9,200 votes. Her district becomes even safer and more Tucson centered as it gains part of heavily Hispanic South Tucson from the 7th district and loses conservative areas near Picture Rocks. Although this is not a safely Democratic district, Tucson's increased clout here will make it easier for Giffords or her replacement to win.
Arizona's 9th Congressional District Vacant Cyan
Partisan Data: McCain (estimated) 58%
Demographics: 21.0% Hispanic, 69.1% White
Demographics 18+: 17.9% Hispanic, 72.9% White
Old Demographics: N/A
Communities: Scottsdale, Casa Grande, Marana
Status: Safe Republican
The lines on this map remove Republican areas from the 1st, 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th district and I combined those areas in the new 9th district. Those areas include northern Scottsdale in Maricopa County, all of Pinal County except for the Gila River reservation and Apache Junction, part of Gila County and Marana in Pima County. This district is too conservative for a Democrat to win but there could be a competitive Republican primary. Possible candidates could be State Senator Steve Smith (R) from Pinal County or State Senator Michelle Reagan (R) from Scottsdale.
AZ-05 (Schweikert): 49% White, 35% Hispanic, 6% Black, 4% Asian, 3% Native American (Tempe; connects a small Indian reservation with liberal whites) - Lean to Likely Democratic I think
AZ-08 (Giffords): 66% White, 25% Hispanic, 3% Black, 3% Asian, 1% Native American - Safe for Giffords if she runs again; if she doesn't the Republicans have a good chance of picking this seat up
AZ-09 (New Seat): 69% White, 20% Hispanic, 3.5% Black 2.5% Asian, 1% Native American - Safe Republican
Now that I've been working on redistricting Nevada for some time, I figured it was time to branch out and see how Congressional maps might change next door. So I'm heading to Arizona today to explore how their map might change.
Despite the colossal housing bust, Arizona ended the decade with a lot more people than it started with and thus earned a 9th congressional district. Here are the stats for the 8 current congressional districts. For the ethnic shares, W is Anglo, B is black, H is Hispanic, A is Asian, and N is Native American.
In a previous diary, I showed what an Arizona redistricting plan with three majority-minority districts might look like. With the new census data for Arizona, it is actually possible to draw four majority-minority districts in the state.
The 2010 census data recently came out for Arizona. I haven't seen any maps since then, so I wanted to try to guess what the commission will do to get the ball rolling. I don't have much local knowledge of Arizona, so if I have butchered something, please let me know!
1st District- Paul Gosar (R)
New District VAPs
White: 64.1%
Black: 01.4%
Hispanic: 15.2%
Asian: 01.2%
Nat. Am.: 16.8%
Old District VAPs
White: 62.3%
Black: 01.6%
Hispanic: 16.9%
Asian: 01.2%
Nat. Am.: 16.6%
This district gets a bit whiter as it drops its portion of Pinal County in exchange for conservative Cochise County. I think this change is justifiable as it allows the 8th to become a more Tucson-centric district. The PVI probably shifts a point or two to the right, making the district R+7. Even though Democrats held this seat until this year, I think it would be tough to recover.
2nd District- Trent Franks (R)
New District VAPs
White: 70.0%
Black: 03.5%
Hispanic: 20.1%
Asian: 02.2%
Nat. Am.: 02.8%
Old District VAPs
White: 74.1%
Black: 03.2%
Hispanic: 16.8%
Asian: 02.7%
Nat. Am.: 01.8%
This district had to shed about 150,000 people. Because the district has to take in the Hopi reservation, all of the loss came in metro Phoenix. The district also picks up La Paz County from the 7th. I'm not sure that Trent Frank's portion of Glendale is in the district, but it contains most of his old territory. Though the district gets less white, its PVI is probably around R+9.
3rd District- Ben Quayle (R)
New District VAPs
White: 76.8%
Black: 03.0%
Hispanic: 14.2%
Asian: 03.6%
Nat. Am.: 01.0%
Old District VAPs
White: 74.9%
Black: 03.0%
Hispanic: 15.9%
Asian: 03.6%
Nat. Am.: 01.2%
This district has shifted a bit east and includes Peoria and portions of Phoenix and Glendale. The PVI is probably unchanged at R+9. Even with Ben Quayle, this district would be hard to win.
4th District- Ed Pastor (D)
New District VAPs
White: 25.0%
Black: 09.2%
Hispanic: 60.0%
Asian: 02.9%
Nat. Am.: 01.7%
Old District VAPs
White: 27.3%
Black: 08.9%
Hispanic: 57.6%
Asian: 02.6%
Nat. Am.: 2.2%
The district takes in central Phoenix and southern Glendale. It is not much changed and should be a safe Democratic district.
5th District- David Schweikert (R)
New District VAPs
White: 75.7%
Black: 02.8%
Hispanic: 15.4%
Asian: 03.0%
Nat. Am.: 01.8%
Old District VAPs
White: 73.8%
Black: 03.7%
Hispanic: 14.0%
Asian: 04.7%
Nat. Am.: 02.2%
The district loses Tempe and a portion of Phoenix to the south, becoming a Scottsdale-centric district. I'd guess it also becomes a bit more Republican with a PVI of R+7. This district would be hard for a Democrat to pick up.
6th District- Open
New District VAPs
White: 76.9%
Black: 02.7%
Hispanic: 14.7%
Asian: 03.0%
Nat. Am.: 01.4%
Old District VAPs
White: 73.7%
Black: 03.0%
Hispanic: 17.2%
Asian: 03.9%
Nat. Am.: 00.9%
The district loses a portion of western Mesa and all of Chandler and picks up more of eastern Pinal County. This monstrously Republican district probably becomes even more so. It has no incumbent due to Jeff Flake's Senate run.
7th District- Raul Grijalva (D)
New District VAPs
White: 38.3%
Black: 03.2%
Hispanic: 51.2%
Asian: 01.7%
Nat. Am.: 04.6%
Old District VAPs
White: 38.7%
Black: 03.6%
Hispanic: 50.1%
Asian: 02.2%
Nat. Am.: 04.1%
This district loses La Paz County and a bit of Tucson while adding western Pinal County. On balance, it becomes slightly more Hispanic. The PVI is probably similar to the current D+6. Since he won in 2010 after urging a boycott of the state, I have to assume he'll be safe in this district.
8th District- Gabriele Giffords (D)
New District VAPs
White: 71.6%
Black: 03.1%
Hispanic: 19.1%
Asian: 03.3%
Nat. Am.: 00.9%
Old District VAPs
White: 72.7%
Black: 03.2%
Hispanic: 18.9%
Asian: 02.9%
Nat. Am.: 00.8%
This district drops conservative Cochise County and picks up more of the city of Tucson. It is now contained entirely in Pima County. I'd guess that the PVI shifts from R+4 to about even. If Giffords runs again, she'll probably win, though I'd consider this a toss-up district.
9th District- New District
New District VAPs
White: 64.8%
Black: 04.4%
Hispanic: 21.5%
Asian: 05.6%
Nat. Am.: 02.0%
This new district contains Chandler, Tempe, western Mesa, and the southern portion of Phoenix. Because no incumbent lives in this district and because its PVI is probably about even, I'd expect a competitive election in 2012.
Overall, the map has 5 Republican districts, 2 Democratic districts, and 2 pure toss-up districts. In my view, this will better than the current map, which really had two Democratic districts and six Republican ones.
I decided to attempt redistricting Arizona, with its requirements for districts based around communities of interest. Arizona will pick up a 9th Congressional seat in 2012, though it's tough to say which is the 'new' seat in my map as I moved a lot of things around in the Phoenix metro area. Changes elsewhere were less radical.
Caveats: While the district populations are all roughly equal in DRA, they have the potential to be out of whack in reality, particularly in Pinal County, I'm told. Also, I have little first hand knowledge of Arizona and am going mostly off of what I've read in other diaries, so cue Nico picking this apart in 3...2...1
Arizona is gaining one seat, from eight up to nine, and that means that its new target is 710,224, up from 641K in 2000. Interestingly, despite the fact that it's gaining a new seat, there are still three currently-composed districts that are in a deficit and need to pick up people from elsewhere: the 3rd, 4th, and 5th. These are the three central districts in the Phoenix area that are essentially built out and can't expand in any direction (except up); meanwhile, the 2nd, 6th, and 7th can continue to expand every which way into the desert, which is precisely what they did over the decade, so look for one additional GOP-friendly seat to be carved out of Phoenix's endless suburbia (although whether it's centered in Phoenix's west or east suburbs remains to be seen... between the commission's role in deciding, and possible multiple incumbents opening up seats to run for the Senate, there really aren't any clues what will happen).
Like the other border states, Arizona has become signficantly more Hispanic over the decade, up to 29.6% Hispanic now compared with 25.3% in 2000. The Hispanic growth wasn't concentrated any one particular place: that 4% increase was closely mirrored in all the districts. The 2nd had the biggest Hispanic shift, at 7% (from 14% to 21%), while the 1st had the smallest shift, at 3% (from 16% to 19%). That dissipation of the Hispanic vote means that it's not terribly likely that a third VRA seat will be carved out, despite the fact that Hispanics are close to 1/3 of the state's population.
District
Population
Deviation
AZ-01
774,310
64,086
AZ-02
972,839
262,615
AZ-03
707,919
(2,305)
AZ-04
698,314
(11,910)
AZ-05
656,833
(53,391)
AZ-06
971,733
261,509
AZ-07
855,769
145,545
AZ-08
754,300
44,076
Total:
6,392,017
I'm not the first one to observe that Idaho redistricting is pretty much drama-free. Nevertheless, there's at least something interesting going on here in this small but fast-growing state: growth is very heavily concentrated in suburbs and exurbs west of Boise. For instance, the state's 2nd and 3rd biggest cities used to be Pocatello and Idaho Falls; now they're Meridian (a large suburb west of Boise) and Nampa (in Canyon County, the next county to the west). That means that the districts are kind of lopsided, and it looks like much of Boise proper, currently split down the middle, will wind up being given to ID-02. While Boise is certainly the most urbane part of the state, and it should tip the balance a bit in the blue direction (as for the past decade, the two districts have had almost identical PVIs), the 2nd should still be a long way away from somewhere the Dems can compete. (Idaho's target is 783,791, up from 646K in 2000. Look for it to get a 3rd seat in 2020.)
District
Population
Deviation
ID-01
841,930
58,139
ID-02
725,652
(58,139)
Total:
1,567,582
Wisconsin held steady at eight seats this year, and even its districts held pretty steady, too. Its target is 710,873, up from 670K in 2000. That means the only district that lost population is the Milwaukee-based 4th and even it only lost a few thousand since 2000. The main area of growth is the state's other blue stronghold, the Madison-area 2nd (must have something to do with THE BLOATED STATE GOVERNMENT AND THOSE GREEDY PUBLIC EMPLOYEES MULTIPLYING LIKE LOCUSTS!!!!1!!), which needs to give about 40,000 people to the 4th (although they'll have to pass through the suburban 5th, which sits smack dab between them). Also, it looks like Dairyland is gaining a little at the expense of the North Woods, as the 3rd will need to pick up 20K from GOP freshman Sean Duffy's 7th. Although the GOP controls the redistricting process here, thanks to their House gains in 2010 and the overall uniform swinginess of the rural counties, they're probably just going to be playing defense with their map.
Arizona is gaining a ninth congressional district this year, and it is certain to be based in the Phoenix suburbs where the population has exploded recently. Generally it is believed that the new district will be Republican-leaning as are most of the Phoenix burbs, but it is actually possible to draw a compact new majority-minority district in the Phoenix area.
Speak of the devil! After all my grumbling about the inadequacy of the county-level population estimates, it turned out that our friend Dave was about to produce new tract-level estimates from the American Community Survey. So here is a new district map of Arizona, with exactly the same concept (new exurban AZ9 drawn mostly from the overpopulated AZ2, AZ6, and AZ7) but actual district boundaries as opposed to rough guesses.
With the ACS estimates, the aggregate population was very close to the Census 2010 figure so the "phantom" problem disappeared. It also turned out that Nico was exactly right about how much the old districts had grown: AZ6 was first, followed by AZ2, AZ7, and AZ8. AZ3 and AZ4 weren't far behind, and AZ5 was actually about 9k understrength.
Here is the new state-level map:
The Phoenix map:
I drew a serious border between AZ7 and AZ8 instead of just guessing, so here is the Tucson map:
District notes:
AZ1: The boundaries were almost identical to the first map I drew, as it needed to take the strip and Kingman from AZ2 to hit its target. Ethnic mix: old 58 white/18 Hispanic/20 Native American, new 61W/15H/21N. Probably a bit more red now.
AZ2: Lost a bit more territory than I expected to the new AZ9. Ethnic mic: old 70W/20H, new 73W/18H.
AZ3: Had to lose about 45k, and lost them all on its southern end to AZ4. No need to take any of AZ5, which was below its target. Ethnic mic: old 71W/20H, new 73W/18H.
AZ4: Also had to lose about 45k and AZ9 took a big bite out of its southwest corner, forcing it to move a bit north. Not as pretty as it was before, but still nice and blocky. Ethnic mic: old 22W/66H, new 24W/64H. I don't think Ed's worried.
AZ5: Only 9k under its target, it could basically stand pat. Swapped a few districts with AZ6 to make the lines cleaner. Ethnic mic: still 71W/17H.
AZ6: I decided to keep Apache Junction here since it's really an extension of east Mesa and didn't grow much in the 00s. As in the previous map, it loses the rest of its Pinal piece to AZ9 and its Chandler piece (this time mostly to AZ9 instead of all to AZ5), and retains Gilbert, Queen Creek, and almost all of Mesa. Ethnic mic: old 71W/21H, new 72W/20H.
AZ7: It had to keep a bigger than expected piece of Pinal, which resulted in AZ9 being pushed north. It had to take about 57k people from AZ8, and the current boundaries are a fairly straightforward northwest-southeast line as opposed to a strained attempt to jam as many Hispanics as possible into AZ7. I decided to stick with this and had AZ7 nibble at the edges of AZ8, although I restricted it to tracts that were at least 20% Hispanic. Ethnic mic: old 34W/55H, new 36W/54H.
AZ8: Looks much more like the current AZ8 than my previous map did, and keeps its Pinal tract now. The pieces it lost to AZ7 had the effect of reducing the Hispanic percentage in both districts. Ethnic mic: old 70W/21H, new 71W/20H.
AZ9: The previous AZ9 I drew turned out to not have enough peeps, so now it has to go deep into Chandler on the east side and well north of I-10 on the west side. Interestingly this district is majority-minority at 46% white, 41% Hispanic, and 6% black which is high for Arizona. It probably leans Dem at least in a presidential year.
(here is the original post in its entirety)
Short version: Exurban areas of Pinal and Maricopa counties that grew like a weed in the 00s are carved out of districts 2 (Franks), 6 (Flake), and 7 (Grijalva) to form a new district 9. The other 5 districts only get minor tweaks to meet population requirements for the most part.
This map is my interpretation of shamlet's description of his own map with an exurban AZ9. My original concept was for AZ9 to stay entirely within the west valley of Maricopa county including the established cities of Glendale and Peoria along with some of the bubble areas to the south, pushing AZ2 to the west to pick up Yavapai county and forcing AZ1 (Gosar) to pick up almost all of Pinal county. I decided that I liked shamlet's concept better, as mine would have been more disruptive to the current map and would have likely resulted in AZ1 being dominated by exurban Pinal at the expense of its far-flung, highly diverse rural communities.
Some words of warning: The boundaries between the districts are approximate, not absolute. The population estimates in the redistricting app only go down to the county level. This is fine for a state like Iowa where no county is big enough to contain as many as one district, but it causes trouble in Arizona which has just 15 counties, with nearly 80% of the population in just two of them! The distribution of population within Maricopa and Pima counties is uncertain, especially in Pima where nearly 90% of the population is either in Tucson or in unincorporated areas. I drew the lines based on my best guess. A further complication is that the 2010 census shows the state with 6.39m people, well below the 2009 estimate of 6.60m. This map is based on the 2009 estimates for cities and counties, which somewhere include 200k people who apparently aren't really there. I suspect that a disproportionate number of these phantom people are in the bubblicious AZ9, but they could be anywhere. It will be interesting to see the 2010 census figures for cities and counties, but we don't have those yet, so...
Here is the statewide map, with the usual color scheme.
And here is the close-up of the Phoenix area.
Now for notes on the individual districts. The target population for each is 713k.
AZ1 (blue): Paul Gosar's district has an estimated population of 619k (less any phantoms) in its core counties of Yavapai, Coconino, Apache, Navajo, Gila, Graham, and Greenlee. That means it probably needs about 100k from somewhere else, either Mohave or the less populated eastern end of Pinal. I'm guessing that they would get about that amount from the Kingman area and the "strip" north of the Canyon in Mohave, and from eastern Pinal which has a lot of old mining towns that fit well with the rest of the district. Changes: loses some of south-central Pinal to AZ7, picks up Kingman and strip areas from AZ2 and one Pinal precinct from AZ8 (Giffords).
AZ2 (green): Trent Franks' district will have to shed a lot of people, but even after losing the Kingman and strip areas and the (formerly?) fast-growing areas of southwest Maricopa, it retains its west valley base with Peoria, most of Glendale, Surprise, and the Sun Cities. I moved La Paz county here from AZ7, as with 33% of its population over age 65 it fits better in AZ2. The boundary shown here between AZ2 and AZ9 is just a guess and could move north or south depending on the final counts. As always, the Hopi reservation is separated from the surrounding Navajo reservation and attached to AZ2. I intended no change in the river-connector between the Hopi rez and the rest of the district, although it does not show up on the map.
AZ3 (purple): I drew Ben Quayle's Phoenix-dominated district to lose some of its southernmost precincts to AZ4 (Pastor) and absorb north Scottsdale and Fountain Hills from AZ5 (Schweikert), but it appears that it grew faster than AZ5 did. The increase in the House vote from 2002 to 2010 was 34% in AZ3 and just 25% in AZ5, so it's possible that AZ5 could retain its northeast end. AZ3 could also lose some of its western end to AZ2 if it turns out that AZ2 is too small after AZ9 fills up.
AZ4 (red): Ed Pastor's Phoenix district started the decade with by far the least undeveloped land of the 8 districts and probably had the least new construction, but its House vote increased by 39% from 2002 to 2010. Its people still vote at a rate far below the state's other districts (just 92k total votes; the other 7 were all over 150k and 6 were over 200k), so this increase may represent increasing Hispanic participation more than population growth per se. The Census estimated that Phoenix grew just 21% between 2000 and 2009 and it seems likely to me that most of this growth was in AZ3, so I drew AZ4 to pick up some of AZ3's southern precincts. This may be the cleanest-looking VRA district in the country, and I drew it to stay that way. If it needs to contract, it would lose some of its southwestern precincts to the new AZ9.
AZ5 (yellow): I generally tried to keep existing districts together, but in this case I went for keeping cities together. David Schweikert's district loses its Mesa piece to AZ6 while picking up the rest of Chandler. It now consists of Tempe (179k in 2009), Chandler (250k), Ahwatukee (85k in 2000 but probably more in 2009), and enough of Scottsdale (238k) starting from its south end to fill up to its quota of 713k.
AZ6 (teal): Jeff Flake's district shrinks considerably and pulls entirely out of Pinal. It now consists of Mesa (467k), Gilbert (222k), and Queen Creek (26k) which put together would be big enough to make up a district if not for the phantoms. It could take Chandler-area precincts that I drew it losing to AZ5 as necessary to fill up.
AZ7 (gray): There are a total of 1.39m people (again, less any phantoms) in the four southern counties of Yuma, Pima, Santa Cruz, and Cochise, which is nearly enough to support two districts. Raul Grijalva's district can pick up the necessary overage from the sparsely populated Gila Bend (I-8) section of Maricopa and the southwest corner of Pinal. If needed it could also retain La Paz, which as mentioned above is a poor fit for the district in my view. I don't know where the border between AZ7 and AZ8 in Pima should go. I suspect that the AZ8 piece of Pima grew faster, as the House vote increase from 2002 to 2010 was 32% in the AZ7 section compared to 40% in the AZ8 section. I had AZ7 take the mostly-empty remaining sections of Santa Cruz and a few Pima precincts mostly west of I-10 or I-19 from AZ8.
AZ8 (blue-gray): I suspect that poor Gabrielle Giffords' district won't have to lose too much ground. Its House vote increased 41% from 2002 to 2010, but this may have been partly due to the 2010 race being a barnburner whereas 2002 was a snoozer. Cochise county grew 10% in the 00s and Pima 21%, and it's likely that the AZ7 section of Pima grew at a decent clip so it seems probable that AZ8's growth was less than its vote totals suggest. This district loses its small Pinal and Santa Cruz pieces and otherwise looks about the same as before.
AZ9 (toothpaste blue): The new district comes almost entirely from the fast-growing exurban Phoenix areas of southwestern Maricopa and western Pinal. It combines the Pinal portion of AZ6, some south-central Pinal areas of AZ1, the Phoenix-area piece of AZ7, and much of the southern end of AZ2. Its population centers include Avondale (85k), Buckeye (52k), Goodyear (64k), the city of Maricopa (45k) which oddly enough is in Pinal, most of unincorporated Pinal (161k), Casa Grande (44k), Apache Junction (34k), and probably a fair portion of unincorporated Maricopa (229k). This district may have the highest percentage of homes in foreclosure in the nation, and probably more phantoms than any of the other districts. As necessary it could take some of the eastern part of Pinal from AZ1 or the southern end of AZ2 to get up to full, which would affect the division of Mohave county between AZ1 and AZ2. Politically this district would probably start out tilt-R or lean-R but shift D as its Hispanic population starts to vote more. Flake won exactly 2/3 of the two-party vote in the AZ6 Pinal piece (30k total votes), although this was less than his districtwide margin. On the other hand, the very liberal Grijalva won 54% of the two-party vote in the AZ7 Maricopa piece (24k total). The current AZ2 is blood-red, but the piece it would lose to AZ9 is most likely younger, poorer, and more Hispanic than most of the rest of the district given that housing prices tend to be lowest in the furthest-out areas. Gosar did about as well in the Pinal section of AZ1 as he did districtwide, but the section that would be lost to AZ9 may differ from the section that would remain in AZ1.
Overall, Arizona presents a rare case where a new district can be created without fundamentally changing any of the existing districts. The state's most explosive growth areas were nearly empty at the start of the decade and close enough together that combining them makes a compact, contiguous, sensible district that would pass muster in a commission-redistricting state. AZ2, AZ6, and AZ7 lose a lot of territory, but almost everyone who lived in one of these districts in 2002 and stayed put will still be in their old district. None of the current House members are likely to be helped or hurt much. Grijalva will be glad to be rid of La Paz but not so much his Phoenix-area precincts, and Gosar would like to pick up some of Mohave, but these are marginal changes.
