There's been a lot of movement in the last 24 hours in West Virginia. To start with, yesterday afternoon, Democratic AG Darrell McGraw announced that Gov. Joe Manchin has the authority to call for a special election to be held this year.
"Since a general election is already scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2010, it is suggested that a special primary election be held at a time which maximizes the opportunity for all potential candidates to prepare for both the special election and the general election, and for all voters, including those in the Armed Services, to participate and have their voices heard," McGraw wrote, according to the Charleston Daily Mail.
There's been some confusion as to what exact format the election would take, and for now, it sounds like no one is quite sure. McGraw's statement makes it sound like there should be a primary election held when convenient prior to Nov. 2, but that's not made entirely clear. The Fix's Aaron Blake says that the Manchin camp would like to have only one election, though, and have a special open primary that coincides with the general election where all candidates run in one pool (shades of HI-01). The superficial rationale, of course, would be saving money on not running two elections. But it could also help Manchin out a lot, if he's the only Dem candidate and the Republican vote is split.
And Manchin is sounding like his candidacy is near-definite; he told Ben Smith today that he'll announce his intentions formally on Monday but said that his candidacy is "highly likely" (which is also how he phrased it on MSNBC this morning). He also said that the only questions left at this point are "procedural," like ensuring a smooth transition for the person who takes over as Governor. Manchin's counsel says that there's no clear sense from the law of when or how to hold the election, but that will be resolved in the legislative special session that Manchin will soon call.
Manchin, talking about gubernatorial succession, seems to be acting like his election to the Senate is already a done deal; is he being overconfident? Yesterday Nate Silver foresaw a close race, although that was based on West Virginia's demographics and reddening trend without any poll data.
Since then, Rasmussen leaped into the breach, offering a snap poll as they often do. Rasmussen's numbers -- and I rarely get the chance to say this -- should give Democrats a good deal of confidence. Manchin defeats his strongest possible GOP rival, Rep. Shelly Moore Capito, by a 53-39 margin, while he beats former SoS Betty Ireland 65-26. Most impressively, he has a 77/23 approval rating, which has to make him the most popular Governor in the nation.
Even before Manchin started signaling his clear intent to run today, and before Rasmussen dropped its abandon-all-hope-ye-GOPers poll, there were questions yesterday about who the Republican candidate would be, and whether there was a Plan B if Capito didn't run. (There's also legal uncertainty as to whether Capito could run in both the special and in her already-scheduled election to hold WV-02 at the same time, which would weigh heavily on her decision whether or not to run. And Capito's calculations would have to factor in whether she might have a better shot at Manchin again in the regularly-scheduled 2012 election, when she'd have a longer time to ramp up a campaign and when Obama's top-of-ticket presence might be an anchor on Manchin... and also the possibility of whether Jay Rockefeller might retire in 2014, giving her a good shot at an open seat.)
In the absence of Capito or Ireland, other names that have gotten floated include businessman John Raese, who spent a large amount of his own money en route to losing badly to Robert Byrd in 2006, former state Sen. Steve Harrison, state Sen. Mike Hall, and Bob Adams, the director of something called the League of American Voters and a losing candidate for state Treasurer in 2004.
UPDATE: Someone has slipped Reid Wilson the short list for seatwarmers that Joe Manchin is considering for appointment to the Senate for the next half a year. Some of the names are familiar, but there are a few surprises. The list is: Anne Barth (former Byrd state director, and '08 loser in WV-02 to Capito), Gaston Caperton (the former Gov. and current College Board Pres. who previously said he wasn't interested), Nick Casey (former state party chair, now up for a federal judgeship), Carte Goodwin (Manchin's former general counsel), Larry Puccio (current state party chair and former Manchin CoS), and Bob Wise (9-term ex-Rep. and one-term ex-Gov., who didn't seek re-election after a sex scandal). Bear in mind that whoever the replacement is, that person will be the vote to get unemployment benefits extended, so there's no doubt a sense of urgency behind picking someone.
Anne Barth made her supporters proud at the debate tonight with Bush Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito.
For those of us who've seen Capito in debates before, it was the usual say one thing here, do something else in Washington D.C.
WEPM broadcast the debate and there will probably be a link later.
WEPM has a story up about the debate with a line in need of clarification:
More than 250 people were in attendance when the candidates for West Virginia's Second Congressional District faced off last night at Musselman High School in the final of the WEPM and Journal candidate forums for 2008. Incumbent Congresswoman Shelly Moore Capito (R) and challenger Anne Barth (D) sat down to answer questions from the panel and from the audience. The debate was moderated by Blue Ridge Community and Technical College President Peter Checkovich. Crowds lined the streets with signs supporting their candidates prior to the debate and supporters cheered and yelled during the debate itself, a sign of the excitement that has been created as this heated campaign nears a finish.
Former Gov. Gaston Caperton explains why Anne Barth would be a tremendous representative for the people of West Virginia.
I attended the Campaign for Change event in Martinsburg, West Virginia today. It was rainy, autumnal day. We had a boisterous, fired up and ready to go crowd in attendance. Most of those who arrived early did visibility for our candidates outside the headquarters. We let our voices be loud enough so even those across the street at the Shelley Moore Capito headquarters could hear us even though she's tried to not listen to her constituents for years.
Today's event featured former Gov. Gaston Caperton, former Gov. Bob Wise, who also had served as the Congressional representative for the district, and West Virginia native son and U.S. Sen. Thomas Carper of Delaware, currently the junior senator of his state and soon to be the senior senator once Sen. Joe Biden is elected our vice president.
Via West Virginia Blue, Robert Byrd has cut a commercial for Anne Barth (D), running against incumbent Shelley Moore Capito (R). It's pretty similar to the DSCC ads against Elizabeth Dole, with two men sitting on the porch just chattin' away.
UPDATE: On September 16 EMILY's List announced their endorsement of two more Congressional challengers: Becky Greenwald in IA-04 (D+0) and Sharen Neuhardt in OH-07 (R+6).
Maybe someone out there who knows the inner workings of EMILY's List can explain to me why this group has not put money behind Becky Greenwald, the Democrat challenging loyal Republican foot-soldier Tom Latham in Iowa's fourth Congressional district.
I have been going over the list of Democratic women running for Congress whom EMILY's List is supporting, with a particular focus on the six challengers most recently added to this group in early August. I do not mean to denigrate any of those candidates, and I recognize that every race has its own dynamic.
However, after comparing Greenwald's race to those of other candidates, I remain puzzled that EMILY's list is not more involved in IA-04.
Over and over again we've seen a pattern from Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-Big Oil). When Democrats in Congress tried to take steps to do what the American people want and bring the troops home from Iraq, Capito called it "playing politics." But when George W. Bush and his administration plays politics with the lives of troops, we hear only silence from her. So much for her "independence." The only conclusion that can be reached: Capito likes it when Bush plays politics with the lives of soldiers.
Anne Barth had a long-scheduled event at Martinsburg headquarters before she and about 30 volunteers went off to canvass. By sheer coincidence ineffective Bush Republican Shelley Moore Capito held the opening of her campaign headquarters in Martinsburg across the street.
Now in addition to Cook's Political Report and others, Congressional Quarterly is jumping on that band wagon.
CQ Politics today is changing the race ratings in 14 congressional districts in 10 states to reflect changing political circumstances that mean brighter prospects for the Democrats, who are expected to augment their 236-199 majority in the U.S. House in the November elections.
Twelve of the 14 race rating changes favor the Democrats, compared to two that favor Republicans, who are trying to limit their losses this year after suffering a net loss of 30 House seats in the 2006 election.
CQ Politics bases its race ratings changes on a variety of factors, including polling and fundraising figures, demographic and political data and conversations with political analysts and party officials. The race ratings are better described as snapshots than as election predictions, and they are subject to change at any time.
snip
• West Virginia's 2nd(New Rating: Leans Republican. Previous Rating: Republican Favored). Four-term Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is well-liked and has some centrist leanings, but her election victories also have been aided by underfunded or flawed Democratic opponents. She may face her toughest challenge yet from Anne Barth, a longtime West Virginia-based aide to Democratic Sen. Robert C. Byrd who entered the race after Democratic state Sen. John Unger withdrew just before the January candidate filing deadline. With $636,000 in campaign receipts through the end of June, Barth has already raised more than 2006 Democratic nominee Mike Callaghan raised for the duration of a campaign in which he won 43 percent of the vote against Capito.
Double-talking Shelley Moore Capito
Republicans are dropping money on Capito that was raised to expand the Republican majority and in their desperation are using it to protect an incumbent.
My guess is Capito has seen internal polling that is panicking her. She's been too afraid to meet with constituents to answer their questions because she's so out of touch with the people of WV-02 she doesn't know what to say to them.
Capito has painted herself into a corner. She clearly wants to distance herself from the wildly unpopular George W. Bush so that she doesn't lose "independents" yet at the same time she can't distance herself too publicly without alienating the mouth-breathing part of her base that still supports him. The same with the Iraq war. At the end of the 2006 campaign, she signalled she was for withdrawing the troops from Iraq just as she expected the Iraq Study Group report to recommend, but then she reversed herself again on the issue, proving she's no independent. Her "centrist" leanings fail to show on key votes that matter.
Meanwhile Barth is one of the most attractive - in many ways - candidates we've ever had run for WV-02. Her experience at getting the job done for Byrd in West Virginia would be a great asset in the House of Representatives, particularly in a district where Capito has consistently been in the the bottom half of the power rankings at the nonpartisan Congress.org. Even when the Republicans held the majority, Democrats Nick Rahall and Alan Mollohan had much higher ratings for effectiveness than Capito.
This election is simple if we want to put someone in to get the job done for us. Anne can. Capito can't.
Ineffective Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito came in to office with her good friend George W. Bush and she needs to leave with him. For the past 7 and a half years what has she accomplished for WV-02? Nothing. She has little to show for her four terms in office for the WV-02 District.
As Clem pointed out the right wing bloggers don't even write anything positive about her because there's nothing there.
For the past 21 years, Anne Barth has worked with Sen. Robert C. Byrd to serve West Virginians. There's been no one better at constituent service in Congress than Senator Byrd and he doesn't do it alone. He's relied on staffers like Anne Barth.
Like her political idol George W. Bush, Shelley Moore Capito grew up as the child of privilege. Her father former Gov. Arch Moore made sure when she wanted to run for office she was elected. She was born on 3rd base and acts like she hit a triple. And throughout her long years in Congress, she's voted consistently on issues that have helped people like her - wealthy and born into privilege - over people who know what it's like to earn a paycheck through the sweat of our brows. She's voted against bills supported by the unions and she's voted on bills that put a greater burden on the middleclass to give bigger tax cuts to the rich.
Anne Barth was born the daughter of a minister, who served different parishes throughout the state. Then she served as the right hand of Senator Byrd as he served the people of the state.
Vic Sprouse was once touted as having a political future, until he found he liked talking more about family values than practicing them. He was a rising star of the West Virginia GOP, which may say more about the weakness of their bench than about Sprouse's qualities as a candidate. Nevertheless, the soon to be irrelevant former Minority State Senate leader has decided to mock Gov. Joe Manchin (D), for - well, if you read Sprouse closely - for being successful.
For like five minutes, I would love to live in the world that Joe Manchin dwells in... at first and when I first started listening to Joe speak, I really thought he was just spouting platitiudes and he was just a strong cheerleader of our state.
