Polls in Alaska close at 12am Eastern, and we'll be following the results for the Alaska Senate primary, the Democratic primary for the state's at-large House seat, and most importantly, the battle between Sean Parnell and Don Young. Stay tuned.
3:52AM: Alright, let's continue the discussion over in thread no. 2.
3:46AM: Uncle Ted is Uncle Ted:
This is still a Republican state. You think they're going to go for Obama? You think they're going to go with Schumer who's against drilling in the arctic and offshore? [...]
But this is a Republican state - don't forget that. And we know why we're Republican - because the Democrats have opposed our development every inch of the way.
Senator. How are you going to campaign during the trial? (didn't answer)
3:28AM: The gap is closing -- Young now trails by only 360 votes...
3:23AM: Mush, mighty huskies, mush! We need to see the Coconut Road precincts before daylight!
3:11AM: A source close to the action in Alaska writes in to note (just as many of you have written about in the comments) that many of the Young-friendly precincts in rural Alaska have yet to report. Parnell doesn't have anything in the bag yet.
2:58AM: Our quickie back-of-the-napkin analysis reveals that Young would have to perform about 1.51% better among the outstanding votes in order to win.
2:54AM: 58% reporting, and Parnell has increased his lead to about 700 votes.
2:38AM: Parnell is now up by over 400 votes.
2:07AM: Young trails by four. Not percent. Four votes. Jebus; there's no way I'm going to bed tonight.
1:45AM: 37% in, and things are looking a bit hairier for The Donald, with Parnell ahead by 300 votes. With a ton of votes outstanding, though, this lead is hardly safe.
1:21AM: Why is the Dem primary ballot referred to as the "ADL" Party primary, you ask? Answer: typical Republican ballot box b.s. 1:15AM: Here we go, folks! 31% is in, and Young is up by a nose. Wow. Berkowitz and Stevens are cruising.
1:07AM: A friend on the ground in Alaska tells SSP that AK officials may hold off reporting any numbers until 50% of precincts are counted.
12:38AM: It may take a few minutes before we start to see any results trickle in. They still have to wait for a shipment of ballot boxes stuffed with votes for Don Young to come in from the Coconut Road precincts in Florida, after all.
Since the indictment, Alaskans aren't feeling as warm towards Stevens -- that's no surprise. The percentage of voters with a positive impression of the incumbent fell from 55% to 44% in Moore's second poll. His negatives also rose accordingly -- from 38% to 48% two weeks later.
Despite his favorables taking a hit, Stevens still has a commanding lead in the GOP primary:
"Other" presumably includes self-funding beardo Vic Vickers, whose frequent swipes against "Big Oil" aren't likely to get him very far in a resource-dependent state.
Things are certainly looking good right now for Mark Begich.
Bonus finding: In the 7/18-22 poll, McCain leads Obama by a mere three points in the state -- 47% to 44%.
Before looking at whether or not the Democrats can expect to get the magic sixty, lets review the seats which have the potential to flip, starting from the ones most likely to flip to the ones least likely to flip (anything not listed here means that we consider the seats to be completely safe). (Note, these are all Election Inspection's ratings)
Solid Democratic (Pick-up)
Virginia (Warner)
New Mexico (Domenici)
Leans Democratic
Sununu (New Hampshire)
Landrieu (Lousiana)
Colorado (Allard)
Stevens (Alaska)
Leans Republican
Smith (Oregon)
Coleman (Minnesota)
Collins (Maine)
Wicker (Mississippi-B)
McConnell (Kentucky)
Likely Republican (Open Seat retention)
Idaho (Craig)
Possible Darkhorse Races (Republican Incumbent)
Dole (North Carolina)
Cornyn (Texas)
Inhofe (Oklahoma)
Roberts (Kansas)
First of all, I think we can safely assume that Democrats will win in New Mexico and Virginia, so we can start off with a net gain of two seats for the Democrats. So, to start off with in the second session, the Democrats are basically guaranteed to start from a vantage point of 50 seats. With the way the Leans Democratic races have been playing out (including the newly added AK-Sen), I'm pretty confident that the Democrats will win at least three and probably all four (Pollster shows Democrats leading by at least 5 points in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Alaska) and while it seems like it's close in Louisiana, with the exception of Zogby, Landrieu has shown to have a consistent lead of no less than 3 points (with the most recent Rasmussen poll giving Landrieu a 5 point edge). So, we'll give the Democrats three more seats and put them up to 53 seats (by the way, this doesn't include Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman who caucus with the Democrats). Alright, so the score now should be at Democrats 53 guaranteed seats and Republicans with 34 guaranteed seats. Now then, let's assume that Republicans win all of the seats which I consider to be either Likely or a potential Dark-horse (which, realistically, is more likely to happen than not), Republicans will have 38 seats (from now on, I'm going to consider Sanders to be a Democrat, for the purposes of voting, which gives the Democrats 54 seats and I'm going to consider Lieberman a wild-card as far as voting in concerned since, even though Lieberman has taken a more Conservative position on several issues, he is still considered to be more likely to support Democratic domestic agendas than Republican ones). So we have a score of 54-39-1, which means that for Democrats to win a filibuster-proof Senate which doesn't rely on Lieberman, they'll have to win 6 additional seats on top of the 5 which I'm projecting for them to win already, now how realistic a shot to Democrats have at this?
I believe that more likely than not, Democrats will win in Louisiana, so we'll give the Democrats that extra seat which puts the score at 55-39-1 (5 undecided). I also think that Republicans should win in Kentucky. so the score now stands at 55-40-1 (4 undecided), which also basically eliminates any reasonable possibility of Democrats getting to the magic 60 number without Lieberman (which, might not be as bad as people think). So, that means that whether or not the Democrats can get to a filibuster proof senate rests on Minnesota, Maine, Oregon, and Mississippi-B. Mississippi-B and Oregon look to be within striking distance but Maine and Minnesota, seem to be moving away from us, so right now, I'd say that, at most, Democrats will probably end up with 57 seats (including Sanders) Republicans with 42 seats, and Joe Lieberman as a wild-card in the Senate.
Doesn't look like we're going to get our filibuster-proof majority this time around, but we'll do well enough that it's possible we can set 2010 up to get there.
Whatever the make-up of the 111th Congress, no one will be able to say that Democrats didn't try everything in their power to reach a 60-seat majority. As of the spring of 2008, there already were eight highly competitive seats that no one would be surprised to see turn-over: With Virginia and New Mexico all but lost for Republicans (and Senator Ensign acknowledging just as much), the GOP is in grave danger in New Hampshire, Colorado, Alaska, Mississippi, Oregon and Minnesota. On the other hand, Republican attempts to go on the offensive have been disastrous, with only Louisiana looking competitive.
You have seen the latest poll by Rasmussen: Mark Begich 50%, Ted Stevens 41%. Not only is Mark an excellent candidate, but it looks like he will actually be a Democratic Senator from Alaska.
If you are in the DC area, you have the chance to meet Mark Begich on Wednesday, July 23rd. Blue Catapult PAc is hosting the event at a Dupont Circle watering hole:
We usually don't delve too deeply into discussions on this year's presidential race, but Barack Obama is waging an extraordinary campaign that could have some serious downballot effects, and that's definitely worth a look when we discuss House and Senate campaigns across the country.
Putting his money where his mouth is, Obama has launched a new 60 second biographical ad in 18 states, including a number of "non-traditional" battlegrounds that are already making the pundit class chatter:
Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia.
This represents a serious commitment towards expanding the map. States like Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Montana and North Dakota are supposed to be off-limits for any reasonable Democrat, but Obama -- aided by an unprecedented fundraising advantage -- is playing by a different set of rules. We could see a very different kind of "trickle-down effect" this fall.
Alaska, for instance, hasn't been seriously contested since the 1960s, yet Democrats are contesting the state at every level this year with extremely strong candidates (Mark Begich and Ethan Berkowitz). A number of recent polls -- public and private -- are showing Obama barely behind McCain in the state. This will make the lives of Begich and Berkowitz easier, as they won't have to convince as many voters to split their tickets -- a challenge, as Cillizza notes, that was too great of a burden for Tony Knowles to overcome in his strong campaign against Sen. Lisa Murkowski in 2004.
In Georgia, few believe that GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss is in peril this year. However, we have seen indications that the Obama campaign plans to mount a massive registration drive to target 500,000 unregistered African-Americans in Georgia. If Democrats can field a strong nominee (say, Jim Martin?), could things get interesting here if Obama is not getting a John Kerry-like beating in the state?
There's a lot to ponder here, but there's a lot of potential for a rising Obama tide to lift many boats, especially with the great (but not surprising) news that Obama will not cede the GOP an inch by accepting public financing and abandoning his commanding financial edge. Unlike teasers like John Kerry's brief ad campaigns in states like Louisiana and Virginia in 2004, Obama can afford to put his money where his mouth is -- and that's exciting.
Another fun fact: Obama only trails McCain by seven points in Alaska, so Begich and Berkowitz won't be dealing with a John Kerry-like drag at the top of the ticket (Hillary trails by 18 in the same poll). This is roughly in line with another recent Rasmussen poll, which showed Obama trailing McCain by only five points here.
Alaska could just be a major battleground not only for Berkowitz and Begich, but for Obama, as well.
Diane Benson, Rep. Don Young's foe in 2006, just released a new poll (PDF) today showing the scandal-plagued incumbent trailing both Benson and former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz, who are vying for the Democratic nomination. Both Dems also lead Young's Republican primary challenger, state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux.
If this poll is remotely accurate, Young is screwed. An earlier poll, conducted in August by Ivan Moore Research, showed Young trailing Berkowitz by nearly 6 points. The environment hasn't exactly improved for young since then, so who knows.
The poll also shows a reasonably close primary race between Benson and Berkowitz, with former Alaska Democratic Party Chair Jake Metcalfe in third:
Interestingly, 6% of respondents volunteered the name of Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who appears set to challenge Sen. Ted Stevens (R) next year. Another Ivan Moore poll, released last month, showed Berkowitz leading Benson by a 26 point margin.
This is shaping up to be an explosive race.
PS: Check out Young's new campaign website. Get a load of his slogan: "No One Has Done More, No One Will Do More." Who does he think he is? Superman?
