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Senate and Gubernatorial Rankings - November

by: conspiracy

Mon Nov 01, 2010 at 5:27 PM EDT

Rankings are 'Tilt' (less than 5 point race), 'Lean' (5-10 point race) and 'Favored '(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is 'Solid' for either party.

August, September and October rankings at links.

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

To start with it may be worth highlighting the numbers from each of those previous three diaries.

August Projection
SENATE - GOP +5
GOVERNORS - GOP +5

September Projection
SENATE - GOP +6
GOVERNORS - GOP +7

October Projection
SENATE - GOP +7
GOVERNORS - GOP +7

I call that a trend. And not a good one. Unfortunately these final projections continue that trend.

SENATE
Dem Tilt
WA (Not at all confident here. And it will probably take several weeks to see if I'm right.)

Rep Tilt
NV (Polling could well be unreliable here but I have to go with it. Hope I'm wrong.)
CO (Bennet has held on well here but I suspect the year is too much for him.)
IL (Still possible that unexpected Dem turnout can save Alexi.)
PA (Sestak has closed fast but I don't think it will be quite enough.)

Dem Lean
CA (This one was a worry at times but I think most of us always felt confident enough.)
WV (Still say he was crazy to push for an election this year but it looks like Manchin will get away with it.)

Rep Lean  
WI (Poor campaign from Feingold but may not have mattered. His principles are both admirable and frustrating all at the same time.)
AK (Murkowski likely pulls it off but weird things happen up there. No result of the three would shock me.)

Dem Favored
DE (Chris Coons will be my favorite Dem Senate Freshman. Not that there is much competition.)
CT (Another that caused a few nerves but the fundamentals always suggested retention.)

Rep Favored
MO (The state may be trending away but I think, like many before her, Robin will be back.)
NH (Many say Hodes ran a poor campaign. I don't buy it. The year made it impossible here with so many indies.)
KY (Paul would have won even without Conway ad own goal. At least he will be entertaining.)
OH (Nobody was beating Portman this year with all that cash.)
FL (Rubio may or may not be a national figure in waiting but Crist is certainly done on that front.)
NC (Biggest recruiting fail of the cycle but even someone like Cooper may have struggled with the environment.)
IN (Surprisingly lackluster campaign from Ellsworth.)
AR (The state has finally broken to join the rest of the region in becoming Republican.)
LA (Vitter is scum but the electorate down their think Obama is scummier.)

ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS
Dem Tilt  
OR (Kitzhaber turned things around just in time.)
VT (If Rasmussen says Shumlin is leading I'm more than happy to believe him for once.)
FL (Biggest consolation prize of the night.)

Rep Tilt
CT (Late momentum for Foley probably keeps this Republican.)
OH (Strickland may well yet pull this out. Would be a another great consolation prize.)
IL (Can turnout save Quinn? Probably not but possible.)

Dem Lean
CA (Money can't buy you love and all that. Always preferred nostalgia myself.)
MN (I wonder what would have happened here without the perennial third wheel?)
MA (Very impressed with Patrick's recovery. Cahill makes little difference in the end.)
HI (Abercrombie recovering from a few shaky polls.)
CO (Suspect Tancredo's ceiling is 45 percent.)
RI (Chafee ain't a Dem but Caprio makes him as good as.)
NH (Nature of the year that this ended as close as it did.)

Rep Lean  
PA (D, R, D, R. Like clockwork.)
TX (Very hopeful White has another run in him.)
GA (Environment means no return for Barnes despite Deal's ethical issues.)
NM (Denish weighed down by Richardson and national environment but Martinez a good nominee anyway.)
WI (Barrett never could shake bad environment and Doyle's unpopularity.)
SC (Tighter than many expected but Haley wins nevertheless.)
ME (Hoping Cutler can pull a shocker here but probably not.)

Dem Favored    
MD (Senator O'Malley in the future perhaps? Maybe the cabinet?)
NY (I suspect Paladino may well cost the GOP some House seats.)
AR (Beebe bucks the tide quite easily.)

Rep Favored
NV (One Reid was quite enough already.)
MI (Figure that Bernero may out perform the polls a little but still won't get close.)
AZ (Hating Brown people saves Brewer her job.)
OK (Nobody really ever expected to be even remotely competitive here did they?)
IA (Culver may well have lost to any Republican. He never had a chance agianst Branstad.)
TN (There are many worse people than Haslam that could be winning this for Republicans.)
KS (I do wonder if this would have been competitive in a better year. Parkinson may even have had an outside shot this year.)
AL (Sparksmania didn't quite materialize.)
ID (Otter polls surprisingly weak once again but that hardly matters up here.)
AK (Ethan Berkowitz meet Tony Knowles. You have much in common.)

WY safely in the GOP column.

Final Projection
SENATE - GOP +8
GOVERNORS - GOP +7

Bonus Projection
HOUSE - GOP +46-51

Discuss :: (2 Comments)

Monday Poll Dump

by: Crisitunity

Mon Nov 01, 2010 at 3:08 PM EDT

Get ready for the mother of all poll dumps:

AK-Sen, Gov PPP:  Joe Miller (R) 37%, Scott McAdams (D) 30%, Lisa Murkowski (WI) 30%; Sean Parnell (R-inc) 54%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 43%

AR-Gov Rasmussen: Mike Beebe (D-inc) 60%, Jim Keet (R) 38%

AR-Sen Rasmussen: John Boozman (R) 55%, Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 36%

AZ-Gov Rasmussen: Jan Brewer (R-inc) 53%, Terry Goddard (D) 39%

CA-Sen, Gov PPP: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 50%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%; Jerry Brown (D) 51%, Meg Whitman (R) 46%

CA-Sen, Gov SurveyUSA: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 46%, Carly Fiorina (R) 38%; Jerry Brown (D) 48%, Meg Whitman (D) 37%

CA-Sen, Gov YouGov: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%; Jerry Brown (D) 51%, Meg Whitman (D) 41%

CO-Sen Marist: Ken Buck (R) 49%, Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%

CO-Sen, Gov PPP: Ken Buck (R) 49%, Michael Bennet (D-inc) 48%; John Hickenlooper (D) 48%, Tom Tancredo (C) 43%, Dan Maes (R) 8%

CO-Sen, Gov YouGov: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 49%, Ken Buck (R) 48%; John Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Tom Tancredo (C) 40%, Dan Maes (R) 9%

CT-Sen, Gov PPP: Richard Blumenthal (D) 54%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%; Tom Foley (R) 49%, Dan Malloy (D) 47%

CT-Sen, Gov Qpac: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 44%; Tom Foley (R) 48%, Dan Malloy (D) 45%

CT-Sen Rasmussen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 46%

CT-Gov Rasmussen : Tom Foley (D) 48%, Dan Malloy (R) 46%

CT-Sen, Gov YouGov: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%; Dan Malloy (D) 48%, Tom Foley (R) 44%

FL-Gov, Sen PPP: Alex Sink (D) 48%, Rick Scott (R) 47%; Marco Rubio (R) 47%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%, Kendrick Meek (D) 21%

FL-Gov, Sen Quinnipiac: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 43%; Marco Rubio (R) 45%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 18%

FL-Sen Rasmussen: Marco Rubio (R) 50%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%, Kendrick Meek (D) 16%

FL-Gov, Sen Susquehanna for Sunshine St. News: Alex Sink (D) 49%, Rick Scott (R) 46%; Marco Rubio (R) 48%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 20%

FL-Gov Univ. of S. Florida for NYT: Rick Scott (R) 44%, Alex Sink (D) 39%

FL-Gov, Sen YouGov: Alex Sink (D) 45%, Rick Scott (R) 45%; Marco Rubio (R) 46%, Charlie Crist (I) 34%, Kendrick Meek (D) 15%

GA-Gov Mason-Dixon: Nathan Deal (R) 47%, Roy Barnes (D) 40%, John Monds (L) 6%

IA-Sen, Gov Selzer for Des Moines Register: Terry Branstad (R) 50%, Chet Culver (D-inc) 38%; Charles Grassley (R) 61%, Roxanne Conlin (D) 30%

IL-Sen Anzalone-Liszt for DSCC: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 39%, Mark Kirk (R) 37%

IL-Sen, Gov PPP: Mark Kirk (R) 46%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%; Bill Brady (R) 45%, Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40%

IL-Sen, Gov YouGov: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 47%, Mark Kirk (R) 44%; Bill Brady (R) 47%, Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40%

KY-Sen PPP: Rand Paul (R) 55%, Jack Conway (D) 40%

KY-Sen YouGov: Rand Paul (R) 52%, Jack Conway (D) 44%

MA-Gov WNEC: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 42%, Charlie Baker (R) 37%, Tim Cahill (I) 11%

ME-Gov MPRC for Down East: Paul LePage (R) 39%, Eliot Cutler (I) 29%, Libby Mitchell (D) 24%

ME-01 Critical Insights for Maine Today Media: Dean Scontras (R) 45%, Chellie Pingree (D-inc) 41%

MN-Gov PPP: Mark Dayton (D) 43%, Tom Emmer (R) 40%, Tom Horner (I) 15%

MO-Sen YouGov: Roy Blunt (R) 54%, Robin Carnahan (D) 42%

NH-Sen, Gov PPP: Kelly Ayotte (R) 56%, Paul Hodes (D) 41%; John Lynch (D-inc) 53%, John Stephen (R) 44%

NH-Gov Rasmussen: John Lynch (D-inc) 51%, John Stephen (R) 45%

NH-01, 02 UNH: Frank Guinta (R) 46%, Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc) 39%; Ann McLane Kuster (D) 43%, Charlie Bass (R) 40%

NM-Gov ABQ Journal: Susana Martinez (R) 52%, Diane Denish (D) 42%

NV-Gov Mason-Dixon: Brian Sandoval (R) 56%, Rory Reid (D) 35%

NV-03 Mason Dixon: Joe Heck (R) 53%, Dina Titus (D-inc) 43%

NV-Sen, Gov PPP: Sharron Angle (R) 47%, Harry Reid (D-inc) 46%, Scott Ashjian (T) 3%; Brian Sandoval (R) 55%, Rory Reid (D) 44%

NV-Sen, Gov YouGov: Sharron Angle (R) 49%, Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%; Brian Sandoval (R) 56%, Rory Reid (D) 40%

NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov Siena: Andrew Cuomo (D) 58%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 57%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 37%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 64%, Jay Townsend (R) 32%

NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov SurveyUSA: Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 56%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 36%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 62%, Jay Townsend (R) 32%

NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov YouGov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 56%, Carl Paladino (R) 29%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 58%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 34%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 60%, Jay Townsend (R) 34%

OH-Sen, Gov Columbus Dispatch (mail-in): John Kasich (R) 49%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 47%; Rob Portman (R)56%, Lee Fisher (D) 40%

OH-Sen, Gov PPP: John Kasich (R) 49%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 48%; Rob Portman (R) 57%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

OH-Sen, Gov Quinnipiac: John Kasich (R) 47%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 46%; Rob Portman (R) 56%, Lee Fisher (D) 37%

OH-Sen Rasmussen: Rob Portman (R) 57%, Lee Fisher (D) 33%

OH-Sen, Gov Univ. of Cincinnati: John Kasich (R) 52%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 48%; Rob Portman (R) 60%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

OH-Sen, Gov YouGov: John Kasich (R) 48%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 45%; Rob Portman (R) 52%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

PA-Sen Marist: Pat Toomey (R) 52%, Joe Sestak (D) 45%

PA-Sen, Gov Muhlenberg: Pat Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 49%, Dan Onorato (D) 42%

PA-Sen, Gov PPP: Pat Toomey (R) 51%, Joe Sestak (D) 46%; Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 45%

PA-Sen, Gov Quinnipiac: Pat Toomey (R) 50%, Joe Sestak (D) 45%; Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 42%

PA-Gov Rasmussen: Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 43%

PA-Sen, Gov Susquehanna for Tribune-Review: Pat Toomey (R) 46%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 48%, Dan Onorato (D) 41%

PA-Sen, Gov YouGov: Pat Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 51%, Dan Onorato (D) 40%

UT-Gov, Sen, 02 Mason-Dixon: Gary Herbert (R-inc) 59%, Peter Coroon (D) 32%; Mike Lee (R) 48%, Sam Granato (D) 32%; Jim Matheson (D-inc) 48%, Morgan Philpot (R) 35%

UT-Gov, Sen, 02 Dan Jones (for Deseret News): Gary Herbert (R-inc) 63%, Peter Coroon (D) 29%; Mike Lee (R) 57%, Sam Granato (D) 30%; Jim Matheson (D-inc) 51%, Morgan Philpot (R) 39%

VA-05 POS for Robert Hurt: Robert Hurt (R) 45%, Tom Perriello (D) 42%

VT-Gov Rasmussen: Peter Shumlin (D) 50%, Brian Dubie (R) 45%

WA-Sen Fox/Pulse: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

WA-Sen Marist: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

WA-Sen PPP: Dino Rossi (R) 50%, Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%

WA-Sen YouGov: Patty Murray (D-inc) 50%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

WI-Sen Marist: Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Russ Feingold (D-inc) 45%

WI-Sen, Gov YouGov: Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%; Scott Walker (R) 53%, Tom Barrett (D) 43%

WV-Sen PPP: Joe Manchin (D) 51%, John Raese (R) 46%

WV-Sen Rasmussen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 46%

Discuss :: (332 Comments)

SSP Daily Digest: 10/22 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Fri Oct 22, 2010 at 8:04 AM EDT

  • AR-Sen (Mason-Dixon): Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 34, John Boozman (R) 55
  • CA-Sen (Tarrance Group for NRSC): Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 44, Carly Fiorina (R) 44
  • CT-Sen, CT-Gov (PDF) (Suffolk): Richard Blumenthal (D) 57, Linda McMahon (R) 39; Dan Malloy (D) 49, Tom Foley (R) 38 (PDF of crosstabs)
  • Rather unusually, Suffolk included Blumenthal & Malloy twice in their head-to-head questions: once as the Dem candidate, and once as the Working Families Party candidate. Each got about 3-4% as the WFP candidate. I've never seen a pollster do this in New York, where the practice of fusion voting is best known.

  • IL-Gov (PPP): Pat Quinn (D-inc) 41 (35), Bill Brady (R) 42 (42)
  • FL-22 (Susquehanna for Sunshine State News): Ron Klein (D-inc) 44, Allen West (R) 47
  • MA-04 (Fleming & Associates for WPRI): Barney Frank (D-inc) 49, Sean Bielat (R) 37
  • MD-01 (Monmouth): Frank Kratovil (D-inc) 42, Andy Harris (R) 53
  • MI-03 (EPIC/MRA): Pat Miles (D) 37, Justin Amash (R) 46
  • MN-01 (Grove Insight (D) for Project New West): Tim Walz (D-inc) 50, Randy Demmer (R) 34
  • MS-04 (Tarrance Group (R) for Steven Palazzo): Gene Taylor (D-inc) 41, Steven Palazzo (R) 43
  • NC-11 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for DCCC): Heath Shuler (D-inc) 54, Jeff Miller 39
  • NM-02 (Tarrance Group (R) for Steve Pearce): Harry Teague (D-inc) 41, Steve Pearce (R) 50
  • NY-20 (Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Chris Gibson): Scott Murphy (D-inc) 42, Chris Gibson 44
  • OR-05 (SurveyUSA for KATU-TV): Kurt Schrader (D-inc) 41, Scott Bruun (R) 51
  • Note: Among the 10% who have already voted, Schrader leads 47-46. This continues a pattern we've seen in other SUSA polls (and also some, but not all, of the early voting numbers by party registration).

  • PA-06 (Monmouth): Manan Trivedi (D) 44, Jim Gerlach (R-inc) 54
  • PA-17 (Susquehanna for ABC27 News): Tim Holden (D-inc) 58, Justin Argall (R) 28
  • TX-23 (OnMessage (R) for Quico Canseco): Ciro Rodriguez (D-inc) 39, Quico Canseco (R) 45
  • VA-02 (PDF) (Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Scott Rigell): Glenn Nye (D-inc) 41, Scott Rigell 46 (R)
  • VA-05 (Benenson Strategy Group (D) for Tom Perriello): Tom Perriello (D-inc) 46, Rob Hurt (R) 47
  • WA-08 (SurveyUSA for KING-TV): Suzan DelBene (D) 45 (45), Dave Reichert (R-inc) 52 (52)
  • Discuss :: (240 Comments)

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/7 (Afternoon Edition)

    by: Crisitunity

    Thu Oct 07, 2010 at 3:35 PM EDT

    CT-Sen: I hope Joe Lieberman has a nice lobbying firm picked out for a job starting in 2013. PPP threw in some Lieberman-related questions in their Connecticut sample, and he generates genuine bipartisan support in terms of the desire to replace him with someone else (72% of Dems, 63% of indies, and 61% of GOPers say "someone new"). He has 31/57 approval, including 20/69 among Dems. In a three-way with Dem Chris Murphy and GOPer Jodi Rell, Lieberman finishes 3rd, with Murphy winning 37-29-17. Substitute Peter Schiff for Rell and it's about the same: 39-25-19. If Lieberman goes the full GOP, he still loses a head-to-head with Murphy, 47-33.

    IL-Sen: Barack Obama's coming to town today, on behalf of Alexi Giannoulias. No stumping though, just two fundraisers. (On a related note, though, Obama will be in Oregon on Oct. 20 to appear with gubernatorial candidate John Kitzhaber.)

    NH-Sen, NH-Gov: American Research Group (10/3-5, likely voters, 9/9-14 in parens):

    Paul Hodes (D): 42 (32)
    Kelly Ayotte (R): 47 (46)
    Undecided: 7 (20)

    John Lynch (D-inc): 51 (42)
    John Stephen (R): 41 (40)
    Undecided: 6 (14)
    (MoE: ±4%)

    Wow! Wild fluctuation in an ARG poll! I'm sure that's never happened before! Well, at any rate, if all undecideds are rapidly breaking toward the Dems, I guess we can call that good news.

    PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Muhlenberg for Allentown Morning Call (9/28-10/4, likely voters, 9/18-23 in parens):

    Joe Sestak (D): 38 (39)
    Pat Toomey (R): 45 (46)

    Dan Onorato (D): 36 (37)
    Tom Corbett (R): 47 (46)
    (MoE: ±4%)

    These races just don't seem to budge. Muhlenberg's newest numbers are just where they were a few weeks earlier, and they're pretty much at the median for all pollsters' averages in these races.

    VA-Sen: More looking ahead to 2012: George Allen is probably figuring that 'macaca' has faded into the mists of time, and he's starting to publicly let it be know that he's interested in a rematch with the man who beat him, Jim Webb. No formal preparatory activities, but it seems like he's engaging in some pre-emptive GOP field-clearing.

    WA-Sen: Here's something we haven't seen in a while: a poll with a lead for Dino Rossi. Of course, it's a Republican poll (from Fabrizio & Associates, on behalf of American Action Forum (that's AAF, not AFF)), so take it with some salt, but it's a reminder that this race is far from a done deal and that things may have tightened since that polling bulge for Patty Murray a few weeks ago. Rossi leads Murray 48-42 in a 9/26-27 sample.

    WV-Sen: You've probably already heard about this story: the NRSC has pulled an ad that it had started running in West Virginia featuring stereotypically blue-collar guy sitting around a diner grousing. Well, if they seem a little stereotypical, it's because they were intended to be, if you read the details from the NRSC's casting call for the ad that was shot in Philadelphia, asking for a "'hicky' blue collar look" and listing the various blue-collar clothing items that they should wear, including "John Deer [sic] hats (not brand new, preferably beat up)."" Somehow, I'm not hopeful this flap will become a game-changer in the race, but maybe it'll help West Virginians see what Beltway Republicans really think of them. The NRSC is in fact distancing itself from the ad, throwing the talent agency under the bus.

    Meanwhile, this seems like a richer vein to mine: the ongoing and seemingly growing controversy of John Raese's residence. He owns a Florida mansion, where his wife and kids spent most of their time. But Dems are trying to raise questions about whether Raese is a West Virginia resident at all, and are asking whether he's filed West Virginia income taxes (Florida, as you might know, doesn't impose income taxes).

    NM-Gov: Can a race have too much internal poll leaking? There seems to be more tit-for-tat in this race than any. In response to yesterday's Diane Denish internal showing a 3-point race, today Susana Martinez brandishes a POS internal from 10/3-5 giving her a 51-42 lead over Denish.

    NY-Gov: Quinnipiac (10/1-5, likely voters, 9/16-20 in parens):

    Andrew Cuomo (D): 55 (49)
    Carl Paladino (R): 37 (43)
    Undecided: 6 (7)
    (MoE: ±2.9%)

    Either Carl Paladino had a huge primary bounce that quickly faded, people who hadn't been paying close attention a few weeks ago suddenly found out that Paladino is a sputtering rage volcano who'd be a huge liability in office, or Quinnipiac put up a big stinky outlier a few weeks ago. (Probably a little of all three.)

    WI-Gov: Marist for McClatchy (9/26-28, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Tom Barrett (D): 43
    Scott Walker (R): 51
    Undecided: 6
    (MoE: ±4.5%)

    Ooops, we missed that there was a gubernatorial half to that Marist poll from a few days ago.

    AL-02: I don't know which is a bigger story here: that Bobby Bright is the first Democratic incumbent to announce, pre-election, that he won't vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker, or that he's trailing in a Martha Roby internal after having, for most of the cycle, seemed safer than a lot of other incumbents in less hostile districts... although the announcement seems pretty clearly motivated by the polling trends here. He says he certainly won't vote for John Boehner, though, saying he wants to vote for a centrist "more like me." Roby's poll comes from POS, giving her a 45-43 lead (with the memo saying their July poll gave Bright a 49-41 lead). Bright still overperforms the generic ballot by a wide margin, which is 51-32 for the GOP in this R+16 district.

    CT-01: Merriman River Group (who put up a surprising poll finding Chris Murphy trailing in CT-05 yesterday) are out with another poll that should give some pause: they find John Larson only ahead by 7 against no-namer Ann Brinkley, 52-45, in what's Connecticut's bluest (D+13) congressional district. For what it's worth, this district is eleven points bluer than D+2 CT-05, so the spread (Murphy was down 5) is consistent... but also remember that Merriman was about five points to the right of where everybody else was seeing the statewide races in that big pile of CT polls from the last couple days, so feel free to adjust accordingly.

    IL-17: Yep, we've definitely got a real race here this time, after Phil Hare got away unopposed in 2008. He's up only slightly over Bobby Schilling in a POS internal (which I assume is on behalf of the Schilling camp, as the NRCC has been using Tarrance in this district), leading 38-37 in a 9/26-27 sample.

    IN-02: EPIC-MRA for WSBT (10/1-3, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Joe Donnelly (D): 48
    Jackie Walorski (R): 39
    Mike Vogel (I): 6
    Undecided: 7
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    These numbers (which include leaners) look pretty good for Donnelly, in the first public poll of the race (although he's seemed to fare OK in partisan polls of the race, compared with many other vulnerable Dems, leading in both AFF and Susan B. Anthony List polls). Donnelly has 47/32 faves, while Walorski is at 32/35.

    NY-23: Here's one more Republican internal, that was taken before Doug Hoffman officially pulled the plug on his Conservative Party bid, but suggesting that he wasn't having much of an effect this year anyway. In the POS poll taken for the NRCC 9/22-23, Matt Doheny leads Dem incumbent Bill Owens 51-37. (Somehow they didn't leak what percentage Hoffman was getting... obviously it couldn't be more than 12%... but they do tell us 68% of Hoffman supporters would, in the alternate, support Doheny.)

    PA-07: Monmouth (10/4-6, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Bryan Lentz (D): 45
    Pat Meehan (R): 49
    Undecided: 7
    (MoE: ±3.8%)

    Believe it or not, this is the first public poll of this race, and it's definitely better than the conventional wisdom on this race would dictate: although Bryan Lentz is still losing, it's by a 4-point margin. It's a seat that leans Dem-enough that even with a strong GOP candidate and a strong GOP tailwind it looks like it'll still be at least close. (That conventional wisdom seems founded largely on a June Meehan internal giving him a 21-point lead.) One other interesting tidbit: Joe Sestak, the district's current Rep., is leading Pat Toomey 49-46 within the district in the Senate race. He'd need to be cleaning up by a much wider margin than that, here, to be competitive statewide.

    WA-08: Let's throw in a Democratic internal poll to break up the monotony. It's from one of the few Dem challengers who seem to be keeping things within striking distance, Suzan DelBene. She trails GOP incumbent Dave Reichert by only 48-44 in a Fairbank Maslin poll taken 10/4-5 (where they gave Reichert a 9-point lead in August). That coincides, perhaps not coincidentally, with Dave Reichert finally having to come out and say "no, I don't have brain damage." Reichert, you may remember, had to have emergency surgery after getting hit in the head by a tree branch in March. Reichert's fitness had been the subject of increasing whispers and question marks in recent months, some of which may have rubbed off on his poll numbers.

    Early voting: Fun fact of the day: early voting is up 50% over this point in time over the 2006 midterm, with nearly 6 million votes already having been cast. This, of course, is in large part because states have, in the intervening years, made it easier to vote early. (Nearly 30% of votes were cast early in 2008; officials don't expect this year's numbers to reach that peak, though.) At any rate, it looks like early voting is increasingly here to stay, and campaigns will have to adjust their strategies accordingly. (I.e. planning for the "September Surprise" instead?)

    Demographics: Now these are some interesting numbers: a chart breaking down the "voting-eligible" (not just "voting age") population by percentage in each state, eliminating non-citizens as well as prisoners and ineligible felons. And here's an interesting statistic: despite the fact that we haven't completed the dang fence, the percentage of non-citizens in the U.S. has actually dropped from 2006 (8.6%) to 2010 (8.3%), partly because the government has processed a backlog in citizenship cases and partly because the lousier economy has made the U.S. a less attractive destination.

    SSP TV:
    AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln uses Bill Clinton as surrogate to talk about John Boozman's privatization mania
    PA-Sen: The Club for Growth does some stimulus act cherry-picking to portray Joe Sestak as a sockpuppet for the sockpuppet lobby
    WV-Sen: The DSCC hits John Raese on outsourcing
    ND-AL: The NRCC attacks Earl Pomeroy for taking money from the insurance industry
    SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin's newest ad focuses on her work on parochial issues, while Kristin Noem's ad says Sandlin's gone Washington

    Rasmussen:
    NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 46%, Sharron Angle (R) 50%

    Discuss :: (205 Comments)

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/4 (Afternoon Edition)

    by: Crisitunity

    Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 4:25 PM EDT

    CT-Sen: Remember how Linda McMahon was touting how the WWE dialed things back to "PG-rated" entertainment this decade? That didn't seem to take into account some corporate synergy between WWE and the Girls Gone Wild empire, who collaborated on a 2003 pay-per-view. My Left Nutmeg has the rundown on GGW's greatest legal hits, and also some compare and contrast with WWE's own most luridly misogynist moments from its pre-PG days.

    IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth, after a few weeks in the dark, is going back on the air with an ad hitting Dan Coats on outsourcing, including his lobbying ties to job-shippers and his own NAFTA vote in the early 90s. However, it looks like this ad is coming out of the Ellsworth campaign coffers, as the DSCC (contrary to a brief flurry of reports) still doesn't seem to be buying any time here.

    MD-Sen: Washington Post (9/22-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Barbara Mikulski (D): 61
    Eric Wargotz (R): 29
    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    Here's the Senate half of WaPo's last Maryland poll, with Barbara Mikulski looking like she might match the 65% she got in her 2004 re-election. Her lead is 59-24 among RVs, so Maryland, like many solidly blue states, has less of an enthusiasm gap problem than the swing states. Her opponent's problem is, naturally, name rec: he has 10/9 favorables, with 81% with no opinion.

    NV-Sen: Sharron Angle will be in Washington DC tomorrow, fundraising at the NRSC headquarters at a minimum-$500 event replete with many lobbyists and ex-Senators. If that causes a little head-spinning cognitive dissonance for you -- in the wake of revelations of her inexplicably tape-recorded summit with Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian in which they both agree that the GOP has been corrupt since, oh, at least 1994 -- well, then, clearly you're not a Republican.

    CA-Gov: While Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown have actually gotten down to some debating lately, tomorrow's planned debate is suddenly off... and without any explanation it's by mutual agreement, not purely a Whitman pullout (while she retrenches in the wake of her illegal employment arrangement with her housekeeper). If you're wondering what the first poll of the race taken since the story broke looks like and whether it's hurting Whitman, well, there's a box called "Rasmussen" down at the bottom of the digest...

    CO-Gov: Here's a little more info on what happens to the Colorado GOP if Dan Maes doesn't reach 10% in the gubernatorial race. You probably know they get stuck in "minor party" status, which affects their ballot position in both 2012 and 2014. But (this is new, at least to me) it also has major fundraising ramifications for state legislative candidates in those cycles, halving what they can raise from individual donors.

    MA-Gov: Tim Cahill, whose right-leaning indie campaign lost its wheels months ago and last week seems to have lost most of its chassis as well too, still plans to go on the air with $1 million worth of attack ads (his only ads so far have been positive, which may explain why he's polling in the single digits). And here's the good news... he's going after Republican Charlie Baker. If he were to join Baker in training his guns only on Deval Patrick, that could be a problem, but he won't. (Makes me wonder if he was a Patrick plant all along? Probably not, but it'd be one of the greatest stories in the history of ratfucking if true.)

    NY-Gov: Now here's one big financial disparity, at least on paper. Andrew Cuomo's warchest, as of required reports last week, is more than $19 million CoH. That contrasts sharply with Carl Paladino's $209K. Of course, Paladino can write his own checks, and has promised to spend up to $10 million of his own money if necessary. (Even if he did, that'd still be a 2:1 disadvantage, with little likelihood of 'recouping' that money in the form of a win, so don't count on it.) Cuomo spent almost $3 million on TV ads in the last few weeks, so he's leaving nothing to chance.

    AL-02: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for DCCC (9/26-28, likely voters, 8/23-26 in parentheses):

    Bobby Bright (D-inc): 52 (52)
    Martha Roby (R): 43 (43)
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    Not a typo. The numbers seem to have stayed exactly the same over the last month, since GQR's previous internal on behalf of Bobby Bright. In this climate, consistency is good.

    IA-01: If, like me, you've been wondering why AFF is pouring $800K into the race against Bruce Braley in the 1st, which no observer has taken much interest in or seen any smoke coming from, well, now you have an answer: Sandy Grenier is the head of AFF. She's also running for state Senate in her spare time... in Iowa. In other words, she's pouring money into a race that's her own personal hobby horse, at the expense of other races that are actually competitive. (And that's not even the main point of the article... it turns out that Grenier, like so many other members of the current wave of GOP candidates, is a big believer in sucker-punching the government with one hand even as you take money from it with the other. Her family has received over $935K in farm subsidies over the last 15 years.)

    NY-20: Grove Insight for DCCC (9/28-30, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Scott Murphy (D-inc): 51
    Chris Gibson (R): 38
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    We haven't seen an internal in this district until now. While the numbers are nice, this actually isn't as good as Siena's poll of the district mid-September, which put Murphy up 54-37.

    WV-03: Anzalone Liszt for Nick Rahall (9/27-29, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Nick Rahall (D-inc): 59
    Spike Maynard (R): 34
    (MoE: ±4.5%)

    With the DCCC out with a poll a couple weeks ago giving Rahall a 55-37 lead (and even that round of AFF polls showing him up by 16), I think it may be time to stop discussing this race as competitive. What's most remarkable here is that the Dems manage to have a 47-37 edge on the generic ballot question, and Maynard (a controversial ex-state Supreme Court justice) still manages to underperform that low bar.

    DCCC: Now who's copping out on their DCCC dues payments? CQ finds that the Congressional Hispanic Caucus has been particularly remiss on making its payments, with only junior leadership member Xavier Becerra having paid all his dues as of the Aug. 24 tally. (Two more, including CHC chair Nydia Velazquez, report having paid up since then.) Some members cite failure to move immigration reform as a reason for holding out and giving directly to cooperative individual Reps instead.

    AL-St. Sen.: Despite having a 25-10 20-15 Democratic edge in the Alabama state Senate, many observers are thinking it's high on the list of legislative chambers that could flip this year, given a perfect storm of local and national dynamics. And this isn't going to help: 4 different members of the 35-person body got snared in a federal probe of a bingo operation. One is a retiring Republican, but the others are a Dem running in a tossup seat, a Dem running in a safe seat, and an independent running for re-election who was expected to caucus with Dems next session (Harri Anne Smith, whom you might remember from the AL-02 2008 GOP primary). This scandal looks like it'll drive the legislative race conversation in the state for the remaining weeks.

    NY-St. Sen.: There are four more polls from Siena of state Senate races in New York, showing two pretty safe incumbents (one from each party) but two open seats in true tossup territory. The safe-ish incumbents are Dem David Valesky in SD-40 (beating Andrew Russo 50-40) and GOPer James Alesi in SD-55 (beating Mary Wilmot 55-35). The other two races seem close mostly because of their screwy circumstances. In the Hudson Valley's GOP-held SD-40, GOPer Greg Ball (an inflammatory teabagger out of step with a district more amenable to moderate GOPers) leads Dem Michael Kaplowitz 45-44. And in Buffalo-area Dem-held SD-58, GOPer Jack Quinn (not the ex-Rep., but a relative) leads at 42, but that's because Tim Kennedy (on the Dem and Con lines) is at 39 and William Stachowski (whom Kennedy beat in the Dem primary) is at 12 on the WFP and IP lines.

    State legislatures: At SSP, we're always about finding ways for you to maximize the leverage you get out of your political contributions, and there's no better way to do that than through giving at the state legislative level, where a little money can go a long way (especially a lot of vulnerable chambers and redistricting looming.) The DLCC is out with its second list of Essential races, in the contests they consider important ones in the quest to hold important legislative chambers.

    One other resource you should check out is the "Win Big By Thinking Small" ActBlue page, courtesy of Progressive Kick. They have 18 different progressives in important state legislative races all in one place. (One name you might remember is Patsy Keever, who ran in NC-11 in 2004.)

    SSP TV:
    CT-Sen: The DSCC is out with an ad simply called "Bad" focusing on Linda McMahon as bad CEO of WWE; meanwhile, the McMahon camp is out with an ad calling Richard Blumenthal a liar for the nth time over his Vietnam service
    MD-Sen: Barbara Mikulski seems to have an easy race, but is still hitting the airwaves touting her education record
    OH-Gov: John Kasich says that 400,000 Ohio jobs were lost under Ted Strickland's watch (without, of course, guessing at how many of those job losses were proximally related to the devastation of the credit market in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers)
    CA-03: Ami Bera hits Dan Lungren for using ethical loopholes to party with lobbyists in Hawaii
    FL-12: Faced with a state Rep. opponent, Dem Lori Edwards tries running against Tallahassee instead of Washington (and against big insurance, while she's at it), in what's definitely today's most cut-through-the-clutter ad
    PA-11: Paul Kanjorski keeps going to the well of how bad a mayor of Hazleton Lou Barletta was
    NRCC: The NRCC is out with freakin' 27 different ads today... you can see the full list at their blog, and even watch them if you have 13½ minutes of your life you don't want to get back

    Rasmussen:
    AR-Gov: Mike Beebe (D-inc) 51%, Jim Keet (R) 41%
    AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 37%, John Boozman (R) 55%
    CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 49%, Meg Whitman (R) 44%
    NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 41%, Susana Martinez (R) 51%
    PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 41%, Tom Corbett (R) 53%
    WY-Gov: Leslie Peterson (D) 25%, Matt Mead (R) 61%

    Discuss :: (197 Comments)

    Senate and Gubernatorial Rankings - October

    by: conspiracy

    Mon Oct 04, 2010 at 1:37 PM EDT

    Rankings are 'Tilt' (less than 5 point race), 'Lean' (5-10 point race) and 'Favored '(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is 'Solid' for either party.

    August and September rankings at links.

    http://www.swingstateproject.c...

    http://www.swingstateproject.c...

    SENATE
    Dem Tilt
    WV (Jury is out on wisdom of election this year.)
    CT (People like Blumenthal and aren't fussed about McMahon but closer than it should be.)
    NV (Reid can't pull away but surely Nevadans can't elect that nut. Can they?)

    Rep Tilt
    IL (Hardest call to make. I'm still confident Alexi can get over the hump though.)

    Dem Lean
    NY (Kirsten's problem was always that people don't know her. First ads now helping with that.)
    WA (Need to see polls not by Rasmussen to see if Rossi has bounced back.)
    CA (Boxer isn't out of the woods yet but the GOP have better targets.)

    Rep Lean
    WI (Shocked this has shifted so quickly and so convincingly.)
    CO (Bennet doesn't seem to be getting any traction.)
    KY (The one remaining shot at a pickup but I suspect it will be another heartbreaker like '04.)
    PA (Sestak has left it too late this time I fear.)
    MO (This will be close but doesn't look good.)
    NH (Independents leaning heavily Republican across the country so Hodes has little chance with them dominating the electorate here.)

    Dem Favored
    DE (Thanks Teabaggers!)

    Rep Favored
    OH (No Brunner fans she would not be doing better.)
    FL (Crist is becoming a bit of a joke.)
    NC (Marshall has no money so no contest.)
    IN (In any other year I think Ellsworth wins. Want more polls.)
    AR (Lincoln won't lose as big as some think.)
    AK (McAdams has great ads but think Dems will be strategic and help Murkowski.)
    LA (Melancon ad hitting Vitter where it hurts in final bid but he was never winning this year if any.)

    ND safely in the GOP column.

    GOVERNORS
    Dem Tilt  
    CA (August as good as it gets for Whitman. As suspected Brown just had to go up on tv to get ahead. No blowout though.)

    Rep Tilt
    OH (Strickland running a great campaign but Kasich a tough opponent.)
    IL (Quinn is clearly closing despite his problems. Not sure if it will be enough though.)
    ME (LePage seems to be sinking but suspect he still leads. Just.)
    VT (Need more polling to see if Shumlin has closed here.)
    FL (Scott floods the airwaves and Floridians don't seem to care how dodgy he is.)
    OR (Kitzhaber surprisingly weak but still in with a good shout.)

    Dem Lean
    CT (Foley has skeletons and Malloy does not which in a blue state means a Dem gain.)
    MN (Dayton isn't perfect but split field means a Dem gain.)
    MD (Blue state and decent O'Malley approvals mean no Ehrlich return.)
    NH (Longevity and the cycle hurt Lynch but I think he'll be fine.)
    MA (Patrick's job numbers have risen steadily. Suspect he wins even if Cahill drops out late.)

    Rep Lean  
    PA (Onorato seems to be closing a little but too little too late I fancy.)
    TX (Great campaign from Bill White but afraid the state is just too red this year.)
    GA (Cannot quite believe Deal is getting a pass here.)
    NM (Martinez has a perfect resume for this year.)
    WI (Seems to be moving away from Barrett.)

    Dem Favored
    CO (Hickenlooper breaks 50 on election day despite having two opponents.)
    HI (Abercrombie will have to work for it but should be fine.)
    RI (Caprio with the advantage but even if Chafee wins this is basically a Dem gain either way.)
    NY (No longer a rout but I'm not worried.)
    AR (Every incumbent Dem should be on this board!)

    Rep Favored
    SC (Latest poll looks dodgy but still expect this to tighten in the final weeks.)
    NV (Possible Rory could make this close but I can't see any way he wins.)
    MI (Since a Republican was always likely to win Snyder isn't half bad.)
    AZ (Brewer's debate debacle doesn't seem to have hurt much.)
    OK (I suspect no total blowout but a comfy margin all the same.)
    IA (Culver might be toast even with a weaker Republican.)
    TN (McWherter turns out to be a bit of dud.)
    KS (Nobody seems to have much love for Brownback but even fewer love Dems this year.)
    ID (Closer than expected but Otter will win.)
    AK (Berkowitz is a decent nominee but I bet he wishes he had challenged Murkowski instead.)

    WY safely in the GOP column.

    Projection
    SENATE - GOP +7
    GOVERNORS - GOP +7

    Discuss :: (10 Comments)

    SSP Daily Digest: 9/22 (Afternoon Edition)

    by: Crisitunity

    Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 4:42 PM EDT

    AK-Sen: If anything makes clear the depth of the NRSC's change of allegiance from Lisa Murkowski to Joe Miller, check out the list of five different NRSC-organized, Senator-filled fundraisers that'll be held on Miller's behalf next week. Murkowski, meanwhile, is shrugging off the loss of her leadership post (which went to John Barrasso) and ranking committee position, seeming more focused on the mechanics of her write-in bid. She's going to have to do a little better than this, though (although Alaska doesn't require precise spelling of write-ins): the original version of the ad telling people about her write-in bid directed people to a URL that misspelled her name (LisaMurkwski.com). (I wonder if some cybersquatter has already grabbed that URL by now?)

    AR-Sen: Ipsos, on behalf of Reuters, is out with a look at Arkansas, a Senate race that's hardly worth looking at anymore. Nevertheless, they show a closer race than anybody else has lately: Blanche Lincoln trails John Boozman by "only" 14, a 53-39 gap among LVs. Lincoln's favorables seem to be improving a bit too, but time's running out for a full-fledged comeback.

    CO-Sen: Here's a tantalizing tidbit, although it doesn't have any bearing on the current race, just likely to exacerbate the seemingly-escalating war between the NRSC and Jim DeMint. It turns out the NRSC gave the maximum $42K to Jane Norton, just four days before the GOP primary. Not much of a vote of confidence in Ken Buck, is it?

    NH-Sen: Unfortunately, where many Republican primaries have dissolved into acrimony afterwards, we're seeing lots of unity in New Hampshire. Ovide Lamontagne is helping to raise funds for narrow victor Kelly Ayotte at a DC fundraiser scheduled for Sep. 27.

    WA-Sen: Considering the play this has gotten in the local press, this small comment on a parochial issue looks to be a major faceplant for Dino Rossi... he dared depart from the party line on the mighty Boeing. He suggested that Boeing should get no favorable treatment from the Pentagon in its competition with Airbus (whose efforts are subsidized by European governments) over who gets to build the next-generation Air Force tanker. (To put that in context, that would be like a candidate going to Iowa and dissing ethanol, or going to West Virginia and dissing coal.) Boeing had already explicitly endorsed Patty Murray, but now she has a nuclear-grade weapon to use against Rossi in the Boeing-dependent swingy suburbs.

    And here's a hat tip to Horsesass's Goldy, who spots some interesting details in the fine print of that Elway Poll from last week. People were surprised when that CNN/Time poll found a reverse enthusiasm gap for the Dems in Washington (with Murray faring better among LVs than RVs), but Elway actually shows something similar. The 50-41 topline was LVs, but pushed leaners. Include only the "definite voters" and that pushes up to a 13-pt lead for Murray (43-30). I don't have one good explanation for this phenomenon, but I'd guess it's a combination of a) Dems being more diehard liberal in Washington and less swingy and/or sporadic than in other states, b) the economy being somewhat better in Washington than many other places, and c) teabagger ennui after Clint Didier lost the primary to establishment leftover Dino Rossi.

    NM-Gov: We've got dueling banjos internals in the Land of Enchantment. Susana Martinez whipped it out first, rolling out a POS poll from last week with a 50-40 lead for her. Not to be outdone, Diane Denish pulled out her own poll from GQR from the same timeframe, showing that Martinez is leading "only" 49-44. Um... take that?

    NY-Gov: Rick Lazio is hedging on what exactly he's going to do with his spot on the Conservative Party line, sounding like he wants to wait and see how Carl Paladino fares before making up his mind. Meanwhile, Andrew Cuomo got a pretty significant endorsement, from NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg, which may sway a few moderate indies but is probably mostly helpful from a GOTV organizational standpoint within the city. Meanwhile, you might have also heard something about a poll of this race today? I've heard a few rumblings. Anyway, we're deferring discussion of today's Quinnipiac poll until the Siena and SurveyUSA polls, due tomorrow, also come out, offering us a better yardstick.

    RI-Gov, RI-01: Quest for WJAR-TV (9/15-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Frank Caprio (D): 36
    John Robitaille (R): 13
    Lincoln Chafee (I): 24
    Ken Block (M): 2
    Undecided: 25

    David Cicilline (D): 49
    John Loughlin (R): 26
    Undecided: 25
    (MoE: ±4.7%)

    This is probably the biggest lead we've seen for Frank Caprio in the Governor's race, and also the first post-primary poll of the race in the 1st, which looks to be an easy race for Providence mayor David Cicilline despite being an open seat in a dangerous year. The poll also finds the Dems easily winning the LG, AG, SoS, and RI-02 races.

    TN-Gov: Crawford Johnson and Northcott for WSMV-TV (registered voters, trendlines from early July):

    Mike McWherter (D): 24 (34)
    Bill Haslam (R): 55 (60)
    Undecided: 19 (6)
    (MoE: ±4%)

    I'm not going out on a limb by saying we can expect Bill Haslam to win the Tennessee governor's race. The only odd thing here is that this is WSMV's second poll of the race, and the number of undecideds has shot up dramatically since July (of course, it's a mystery how there were so few back then).

    FL-22: Anzalone-Liszt for Ron Klein (9/14-16, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Ron Klein (D): 48
    Allen West (R): 40
    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    While this isn't an awe-inspiring lead for Klein in his own internal, it's a good topline and there are some interesting numbers in the fine print. Most notably, West's unfavorables have tripled (to 26%) since May as people have started paying attention.

    MA-04: OMG, even Barney Frank's in trouble! (In case you couldn't tell, I was being sarcastic.) (Or was I?) Anyway, the Republican candidate running against Frank, Sean Bielat, is out with a poll from GOP pollster On Message giving Frank a 48-38 lead over Bielat. I suppose a ceiling of 38% is plausible for a no-name GOPer in this part of Massachusetts, which went 63% for Obama but includes a lot of exurbs and went narrowly for Scott Brown in the special election, but I'm unclear on how he gets much further than that.

    PA-03: Franklin & Marshall (9/14-19, registered voters, no trendlines):

    Kathy Dahlkemper (D-inc): 38
    Mike Kelly (R): 44
    (MoE: ±4.8%)

    This seems to be the first truly independent poll of this race, although we've seen various internals and Republican third-party polls all showing Dahlkemper in trouble, though not always losing. Franklin & Marshall opts for the "losing" side, although it's slightly less severe among RVs (42-38).

    VA-05: Benenson Strategy Group for Tom Perriello (9/14-16, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Tom Perriello (D): 44
    Rob Hurt (R): 46
    Jeff Clark (I): 4
    Undecided: 5
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    Not much difference here than that DCCC poll by Global Strategy Group a few weeks ago that also saw Perriello down by 2. Again, not the most appetizing numbers for rolling out when it's your own internal, but at least it's some pushback against those SurveyUSA numbers.

    WA-09: Benenson Strategy Group for Adam Smith (9/18-20, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Adam Smith (D): 54
    Dick Muri (R): 35
    Undecided: 19
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    Hmmm, speaking of pushback against SurveyUSA numbers, here's an internal from the Adam Smith camp (who were seen as being in a close race in a public poll from over the weekend). Now these are the kind of internal poll numbers we like to see... although the very fact that Adam Smith should have to be releasing internal polls in the first place is, well, a sign of the times.

    DCCC: Here's some interesting money shuffling from the DCCC, which might portend an increased focus on GOTV. A CQ piece detailing some miscellany from their report this month included a number of transfers from the DCCC to state Democratic party committees. That includes $196K to Ohio, $142K to Arizona, and $132K to Arizona.

    American Crossroads: Wasn't the "Crossroads" myth about selling your soul to the devil? At any rate, Politico is out with a nauseating story that's a stark counterpoint to the normal old committee numbers that we released this morning: while the Dems have advantages at the committee level, they're getting crushed in outside TV spending by third-party groups, to the tune of $23.6 million for GOP ads to $4.8 million for Dem ads. (Of course, some of that is money that in previous cycles would have gone to the RNC, which is way out of whack (or "wack," as Michael Steele might say) and unable to do much with its usual task of helping state committees... making the GOP more reliant than ever on hoping that their air saturation can overcome disadvantages in the ground game.)

    The largest of these groups, of course, is American Crossroads, which is out with six new attack ads in different Senate races: Illinois ($482K), Kentucky ($235K), Nevada ($320K), New Hampshire ($643K), Ohio ($260K), and Pennsylvania ($226K). I know the teabaggers like to think that when the 2010 election is written in the history books, the story will be about some sort of populist uprising, but more likely, their useful idiocy will be long forgotten and the story will be about the uprising of a dozen or so billionaires, leveraging tens of millions on ads in order to save themselves hundreds of billions in taxes.

    SSP TV:
    CT-Sen: The state Democratic party goes after Linda McMahon, looking at job cuts she oversaw at WWE
    MO-Sen: The DSCC wades back into Missouri, looking at how Roy Blunt keeps his corruption all in the family
    MD-Gov: A DGA-allied group hits Bob Ehrlich for being in the pocket of utilities during and after his gubernatorial term
    IL-10: Dan Seals goes negative against Bob Dold!, hitting him on social security and abortion rights
    IL-14: Nancy Pelosi's coming for you! Booogetyboogetyboogety! (or so says Randy Hultgren's second ad)
    NC-02: Renee Elmers found the money to run an ad? Well, it is cable only... Anyway, it's about the Burlington Coat Factory mosque, despite that Bob Etheridge says he doesn't support it
    PA-11: Paul Kanjorski again goes negative on Lou Barletta on the bread and butter stuff, hitting for him opposition to a State Department security forces training center for the district
    PA-17: Even Tim Holden's hitting the airwaves with two different ads, one that's a soft bio spot for himself, and then an attack on his opponent's role in legislative pay raises
    WA-08: Suzan DelBene's second ad is against negative against Dave Reichert, especially for opposing financial reform

    Rasmussen:
    AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 34%, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 54%
    CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 47%, Meg Whitman (R) 46%
    IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%, Mark Kirk (R) 44%, LeAlan Jones (G) 4%
    ME-Gov: Libby Mitchell (D) 27%, Paul LePage (R) 45%, Eliot Cutler (I) 14%
    MI-Gov: Virg Bernero (D) 38%, Rick Snyder (R) 51%
    NY-Sen: Charles Schumer (D-inc) 58%, Jay Townsend (R) 36%

    Discuss :: (168 Comments)

    SSP Daily Digest: 9/20 (Afternoon Edition)

    by: Crisitunity

    Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 4:03 PM EDT

    AR-Sen: Move along, nothing to see here. Talk Business, via Hendrix College, is out with another poll of the Arkansas Senate race. They find John Boozman leading Blanche Lincoln 56-29, with 5 for indie Trevor Drown. (The previous Talk Business poll, taken by Zata|3, had it at 57-32.)

    DE-Sen: Trying to put his money where his mouth is, Jim DeMint, via his Senate Conservatives Funds, is going on the air with a new cable TV spot on behalf of Christine O'Donnell. The buy is for at least $250K. As I expected, it makes very obvious hay out of Harry Reid's dumb reference to Chris Coons as his "pet."

    FL-Sen: This is a long read, but worth checking out, not just from a partisan standpoint but also as insight into the constant revolving door between politics, big law, academia, and the nebulous world of "consulting." It's a thorough going-over of Marco Rubio's finances over the years, looking at some of the already-known stuff (his foreclosure problems and overuse of state party credit cards) but also at the connections that have gradually allowed him to enrich himself.

    KS-Sen, KS-Gov: SurveyUSA finds... brace yourselves... Republicans in the lead in Kansas! The Senate race appears to be out in no-man's land, with Jerry Moran leading Lisa Johnston 66-24. The Governor's race, however, remains moderately interesting, with Sam Brownback up over Tom Holland 59-32. Still not a good result, but that's a 15-point swing in Holland's favor from last time, as he now leads among self-described moderates.

    KY-Sen: This poll from last week is probably interesting enough for the front page... but it's getting more than a little stale, after our having repeatedly fumbled attempts to write it up, so we're just dropping it off here (figuring many of you have already seen it on over at Daily Kos). PPP, on behalf of Big Orange, finds that Rand Paul leads Jack Conway 49-42. On the plus side, not much of an enthusiasm gap here, thanks to Paul's polarizing nature; it's just a solidly red state.

    LA-Sen: Two different polls in Louisiana tell different stories. Dem pollster Bennett Petts & Normington, on behalf of the DSCC, sees a 10-point race, with David Vitter leading Charlie Melancon 48-38. On the other hand, Republican pollster Magellan sees it as an 18-point race: 52-34. The truth, as is often said, probably lies somewhere in between.

    UT-Sen: The Senate half of the Dan Jones poll (for the Deseret News and KSL-TV) finally showed up. In what could be called "not a surprise," the Republican is winning in Utah. Mike Lee (who turfed out Bob Bennett at the state convention) is easily beating Sam Granato, 52-25.

    WA-Sen: Here's a nice story about hypocrisy... or hypoc-Rossi, in this case. Dino Rossi made a campaign stop at a Whidbey Island shipyard last week, one that's nearly doubled its workforce from 130 to 210. Turns out, though, that the shipyard received $841K in stimulus funds, and the yard's owner says the expansion is a direct result of the stimulus. (Interestingly, Rossi, without any guidance from Admiral Ackbar, may have sailed right into A TRAP: he showed up at the invitation of the yard's owner, who has donated to Patty Murray in the past.)

    WI-Sen: If that Rossi hypocrisy story seems kind of small potatoes to you, well, don't worry, because Ron Johnson seems to have, over the last few weeks, been exposed as the absolute master of hypocrisy about engorging yourself on the government teat all the while raging against it. While he can claim that building-a-rail-spur-to-Pacur thing was in the distant past, now it comes out that in March 2009, in his role as board member of Oshkosh's Grand Opera House, he sought stimulus funds for renovations to the opera. Y'know, the stimulus bill that's KILLING US ALL AND ALL FUTURE GENERATIONS!!1!  

    WV-Sen: Joe Manchin has had good relations with the state-level Chamber of Commerce, who've backed him in the past. They must have put in a good word for him with the national organization, as now the US Chamber of Commerce is endorsing him too, quite the rarity for a high-profile Dem.

    FL-Gov: Rick Scott's previous defense against the massive Medicare fraud problems at his former healthcare company Columbia/HCA was that he'd have stopped them if only he'd known they were going on (which, considering his job was to run the company, should have demolished his credibility right there). But now it's been revealed that his legal team was keeping him apprised, at least on the issue of trying to skirt a federal anti-kickback law.

    FL-22: They've had to call out the biggest fundraising gun of all for Ron Klein, seeing as how he's up against a nutty opponent but one with a direct line into seemingly hundreds of thousands of teabaggers' wallets in Allen West. Barack Obama will fundraise for Klein in the Miami area on Oct. 11 (at the home of former NBA star Alonzo Mourning).

    MS-01: The Tarrance Group is out with another Alan Nunnelee internal giving him a single-digit lead over Travis Childers in the 1st: this time, he's up 48-41.

    NY-23: Would you believe the NY-23 count is still going on? Although it seems like Matt Doheny is the likely victor in the GOP primary, with a 582-vote lead right now, 1,969 military and overseas ballots remain to be counted. In Friday's count, Doug Hoffman added 207 votes while Doheny added 177.

    American Crossroads: Rove, Inc., seems to be becoming the main conduit for billionaires looking to put their thumbs on the electoral scales but skeptical of the Michael Steele-helmed RNC: they raised $14.5 million in the last 30 days, almost doubling their year-to-date total.

    NRCC: The NRCC is out with a bonanza of IEs in 23 different districts (click the FEC link for specific numbers): PA-11, VA-09, PA-08, WI-07, NJ-03, PA-03, IL-14, MI-01, MI-07, PA-07, NC-07, IL-11, AL-02, AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, KY-06, MS-01, TN-08, TX-23, VA-05, IN-02, and IL-10.

    SEIU: So, while the CoC is endorsing the Dem in West Virginia, the SEIU is endorsing the not-Dem in Rhode Island: they've thrown their backing behind indie Lincoln Chafee. (United Nurses and Allied Professionals will also endorse Chafee today, and the AFL-CIO is currently meeting about which way to go.) The SEIU is also out with a couple IEs of their own, spending $250K against Tim Walberg in MI-07 and $435K against deep-pocketed Jim Renacci in OH-16.

    SSP TV:
    CO-Sen: The DSCC is out with three different ads focusing on various aspects of Ken Buck's nuttery, including the 17th Amendment and opposition to common birth control methods
    CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal's ad focuses on pushback against various Linda McMahon misrepresentations
    FL-22: Ron Klein calls out Allen West for his various veiled calls for armed uprising
    HI-01: Charles Djou's first ad of the general is a positive spot listing accomplishments from his short time in office
    IL-10: Bob Dold! ties Dan Seals to Nancy Pelosi in a health care-themed ad
    PA-10: Here's the winner of the day: Chris Carney quickly and effectively summarizes the nasty links between Tom Marino and Louis DeNaples
    PA-15: Charlie Dent goes after John Callahan's bookkeeping as mayor of Bethlehem
    WI-08: Steve Kagen dips into the well of 50s-era public-domain stock footage to hit Reid Ribble on his calls for Social Security phaseout

    Rasmussen:
    MD-Gov: Martin O'Malley (D-inc) 50%, Bob Ehrlich 47%
    MD-Sen: Barbara Mikulski (D-inc) 54%, Eric Wargotz (R) 38%
    NH-Gov: John Lynch (D-inc) 48%, John Stephen (R) 46%
    NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 54%, Carl Paladino (R) 38%, Rick Lazio (C) 0% because Rasmussen didn't bother to include him
    WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 43%, Scott Walker (R) 51%
    WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 43%

    Discuss :: (136 Comments)

    SSP Daily Digest: 9/16

    by: Crisitunity

    Thu Sep 16, 2010 at 3:57 PM EDT

    AR-Sen: Mason-Dixon takes another look at the Arkansas Senate race, on behalf of Arkansas News Bureau. Blanche Lincoln hasn't gotten any deader than she was before: she trails John Boozman 51-34, with 4 for other minor candidates (no real change from the last time they polled, back in May pre-primary, where Boozman led 52-35). Lincoln's faves have improved a smidge: now 30/47, instead of 28/53.

    DE-Sen: Whooo, where even to begin? The national media is just starting to dig into Christine O'Donnell's gigantic and eminently mineable opposition file, with NPR and ABC detailing her history of getting fired from right-wing think tanks and her suing for discrimination in response, of IRS audits that she blamed on "thug politics" and liens that she blamed on "computer errors," of failure to pay for her college, and of using her campaign money to pay the rent on her house as it's also her campaign headquarters. We also know about her stance on AIDS prevention, thanks to helpful tipsters in the comments. At least O'Donnell's faring well in the fundraising department, raising $1 million since her victory (with Chris Coons raising only $125K, showing the harmful effects of a short-of-the-endzone victory dance). Not leaving things to chance, reports are coming in that Joe Biden will campaign for Coons "next week" and that the DSCC is starting to put money into Delaware, starting with an $85K buy in the Salisbury market.

    The establishment isn't budging much on her: the state's virulently anti-O'Donnell GOP chair, Tom Ross, is staying in place (though calling for "unity"), and Karl Rove, although he sorta backed down in the face of a Rush Limbaugh broadside, is still challenging O'Donnell to be "honest" to voters about her difficulties... and again running through the list of all those difficulties in his media appearances. Meanwhile, O'Donnell strips.... her website, perhaps at the urging of the NRSC; after her nomination, all issues stuff vanished and it just became a donation ask. Still, Harry Reid seems to be doing all he can to fuck this up, issuing a strange quote that should play right into the whole "Obama/Reid/Pelosi agenda!!1!" messaging, expressing enthusiasm for Chris Coons but calling him his "pet."

    NV-Sen, NV-Gov (pdf): Part of the CNN/Time onslaught yesterday was polls of Nevada (which we're relegating to the digest, as this state, as we've complained before, is veering rapidly into over-polled territory). This raised some eyebrows for showing a Sharron Angle lead over Harry Reid (42-41, with 5 for Scott Ashjian) among LVs, but that's only a point or three off from the narrow band of results that Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen have been consistently generating. (Reid leads 42-34-7 among RVs.) Many people (starting with Jon Ralston) also seemed surprised by some crosstabs weirdness, showing the race a dead heat in Democratic-favorable Clark County but giving Reid a big lead in swingy Washoe County. Brian Sandoval leads Rory Reid 58-31 in the Gov race.

    CA-Gov: It's official: Meg Whitman is now the biggest self-funder in political history, having shown that piker Michael Bloomberg how it's done. She gave her campaign another $15 million, which brings her personal spending on the race to $118 million overall.

    CO-Gov: Dan Maes just picked up Scott McInnis's former campaign manager, George Culpepper, so it seems like the local GOP establishment isn't totally abandoning him. The Colorado Independent has an in-depth piece, though, with a more nuanced look, based on interviews with at least a dozen county GOP chairs. Some of them fully back Maes, some grudgingly do so, some back Tom Tancredo, and some are still in a state of shock.

    GA-Gov: After doing some pushback yesterday, Nathan "Let's Make a" Deal had to admit today that, yes, he is in some personally dire financial straits, saying his debts are even bigger than the $2.3 million loan that's outstanding... but also saying that he isn't releasing any more financial records to the press. It also turns out that he never disclosed that loan to the state Ethics Commission on his financial disclosure form, which he's now scrambling to update.

    MI-Gov: EPIC-MRA's out with yet another poll of the Michigan gubernatorial race; I think we can start relegating their frequent polls of this pretty-much-out-of-reach race to the digest, too. They give Rick Snyder a 53-29 lead over Virg Bernero (a slight improvement for Snyder over 51-29 three weeks ago).

    UT-Gov: OK, what kind of a world is it when we're faring better in the Utah governor's race than we are in Michigan? Not like this is a competitive race either, but it could be a good dress rehearsal for a 2012 rematch (remember that this 2010 race is a special election). Dem Peter Corroon trails Gary Herbert by "only" 21 points, 52-31, in a poll taken by Dan Jones & Associates for the Deseret News and KSL. The numbers haven't really changed since their previous poll in April (where Herbert led by 20).

    CA-11: As with 2008, Jerry McNerney rolled out endorsements from some local elected Republicans, as part of a list of 16 county supervisors and mayors who are backing him. Maybe most notable is the backing from the mayor of Manteca (or, in Spanish, Lard), Willie Weatherford, who had previously backed GOP primary loser Brad Goehring.

    CO-03: Here's a boost for John Salazar, in a suddenly-tough race in this rural western district against Republican Scott Tipton: he got the backing of the National Rifle Association, with an "A" rating.

    IA-02: Another warning sign for David Loebsack: the Mariannette Miller-Meeks campaign is out with another internal poll, showing her creeping closer than her previous one. The Tarrance Group poll has her trailing Loebsack by only 1 point: 41-40 (with 6 for a Libertarian). She could do some damage her with more money.

    LA-02: Lawyer Ron Austin dropped out of the LA-02 race today, where he was an independent candidate. This is really the first I'd ever heard of him, so I can't imagine he'd have been much of a factor here; I can't glean whether he was running on the left or the right, but he is African-American, so that in itself may shift at least a handful of votes in Cedric Richmond's direction in what may yet turn out to be a close race. Two other no-name indies remain.

    MD-01: One other internal poll got leaked to the Fix today, too, and this one's a pleasant surprise for the Dems. Frank Kratovil is still claiming a lead over Andy Harris, who just won the GOP nod for a rematch. Kratovil's poll by Garin-Hart-Yang gives him a 45-39 lead. (When I say "still," Kratovil released an earlier internal with a 5-point lead. Harris has released two internals of his own giving him a lead.)

    MO-04: Here's the good news: Ike Skelton got a shared endorsement from Missouri Right to Life, along with GOP challenger Vicky Hartzler. The bad news is: Skelton has generally had that endorsement to himself in the past.

    NY-14: Give Reshma Saujani credit for one thing: she's persistent. She's already announced that she'll try again in 2012 to unseat Carolyn Maloney in the NY-14 Dem primary.

    NY-23: Local teabaggers (or at least one of them) sound pretty upset with Conservative nominee (and GOP primary loser) Doug Hoffman, meaning that he, rather than the GOP nominee, may find himself in the third-wheel position this time around. Mark Barie, chairman of a local Tea Party organization criticized Hoffman for a listless campaign run by outsiders with little familiarity with the district. He threw his support behind Matt Doheny, who appears to have narrowly won the GOP primary despite a late close by Hoffman in late counting.

    CfG: The Club for Growth launched a five-state buy in Senate races, to a total tune of $1.5 million (no word on specific allocation). The states under assault are Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

    NRCC: Two different rounds of TV ad buys came from the NRCC today. The first one was in WA-03 ($900K) and NM-01 ($300K), and a second one covers PA-10 ($595K), NH-01 ($1 mil), NH-02 ($1 mil), FL-08 ($817K), FL-24 ($817K), and VA-09 ($?).

    SSP TV:
    CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer goes negative against Carly Fiorina in a new spot, hitting her on (what else?) her failed tenure at HP
    MO-Sen: A new spot against Roy Blunt from Dem group Commonsense Ten (never heard of 'em, either) hits his consummate insider credentials
    PA-Sen: Yet another ad from Pat Toomey, this one featuring an oppressed doctor who doesn't like HCR (who just happens to be a big Republican activist too, not the ad says that)
    WA-Sen: Dino Rossi's first negative ad features him personally narrating an attack on Patty Murray (instead of using the off-camera voice of doom); he calls her "part of the problem"
    NV-Sen: Harry Reid's newest TV spot, by way of fighting back against Angle's attacks on immigration issues, just goes ahead and says it: it calls Sharron Angle "crazy"
    NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo doesn't want to leave anything to chance despite his big lead (he has the money to burn, at any rate), and he's out with a new bio ad (not that he needs much introduction)
    PA-Gov: Dan Onorato tries introducing himself to Pennsylvania again, this time with a shorter 30-second ad that helpfully lets people know how to pronounce his name
    TX-Gov: Even Rick Perry's going negative: three different ads go after Bill White, two trying to tie him to Barack Obama and one attacking his handling of Hurricane Rita
    VT-Gov: The RGA wades into Vermont with a negative ad against Peter Shumlin, hitting him on taxes
    CT-04: Jim Himes has not one but two new ads, stressing his independence and debt hawkishness
    KS-03: Stephene Moore's first ad plays up her day job as a nurse
    ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy has two different anti-Rick Berg ads, one of which focuses on his crazy plans to drill for oil in Theodore Roosevelt National Park
    NH-02: Ann McLane Kuster (who's now rebranded herself as "Annie Kuster") goes negative on Charlie Bass in her first ad, framing him as failed retread
    NY-20: Scott Murphy's newest spot focuses on his own personal record of job creation as businessman before entering Congress
    TX-17: Chet Edwards is out with a positive ad, touting his work on veteran's issues like VA health care
    WA-02: John Koster tries to cram both a negative ad and a positive ad into a discordant 30 seconds
    WI-07: Sean Duffy plays up his lumberjack credentials, saying he'll "take an ax" to Washington (I'll admit, that's kinda clever)

    Rasmussen:
    CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%, Ken Buck (R) 49%
    DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 53%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 42%
    NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 44%, Kelly Ayotte (R) 51%
    NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 39%, Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
    PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 39%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%
    WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 51%, Dino Rossi (R) 46%

    Discuss :: (251 Comments)

    Senate and Gubernatorial Rankings - September

    by: conspiracy

    Mon Sep 06, 2010 at 12:54 PM EDT

    Rankings are 'Tilt' (less than 5 point race), 'Lean' (5-10 point race) and 'Favored '(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is 'Solid' for either party.

    August rankings at link.

    http://www.swingstateproject.c...

    SENATE
    Dem Tilt
    IL (Which matters more, state or year? I think the latter but only just.)
    NV (Rasmussen's latest has Reid up three with leaners which is probably about right.)
    WI (Basically a tie in most polling. I think the DSCC will have to bail Feingold out here.)
    WA (Same deal as WI and IL.)

    Rep Tilt
    CO (Very few post-primary polls but looks like Buck is up. Bennet has a chance because his opponent says crazy things.)
    KY (Best chance of a pickup but only because of Rand Paul.)
    FL (Rubio ahead thanks to the exposure of the Dem primary but Crist still well in the game.)

    Rep Lean
    MO (I don't expect Blunt to win by much but I now expect him to win.)
    PA (I really hope Sestak hasn't left it too late to try and define Toomey.)
    NH (Still a chance that Ayotte isn't the nominee.)
    OH (Fisher doesn't have the money to compete.)

    Dem Lean
    CA (Very close to only a tilt but CA is more Dem than WA and WI.)
    CT (Maybe should be favored still but the last two polls were a worry.)

    Rep Lean
    NC (Unless the DSCC gets involved I don't see Marshall getting close. Unfortunately I doubt they can afford it.)

    Dem Favored
    WV (Need to see more polling before moving this to leans but suspect may need to.)

    Rep Favored
    DE (Castle probably wins the primary but it is damaging him. I think Coons will surprise people.)
    IN (Like Castle, Coats never seems to poll much above 50 but the year looks to much to overcome.)
    LA (Vitter doesn't deserve his easy ride. A Dem would be toast in an equivalent state.)
    AR (I seriously doubt that Lincoln loses as she polls but she is certain to lose.)
    AK (Not as hopeful as some about this but I guess you never know.)

    ND safely in the GOP column.

    GOVERNORS
    Dem Tilt
    OR (Kitzhaber goes negative and not a moment too soon.)
    MN (Would be leans if not for the latest poll.)
    MD (O'Malley consistently leads if by a small amount.)
    FL (Exit of Chiles is a boost to Sink but this is no slam dunk despite Scott's negatives.)
    MA (I suspect Cahill's support will start to bleed away but Patrick should still squeeze past Baker.)

    Rep Tilt
    GA (Deal was probably the best opponent for Barnes but still tough this year.)
    IL (Hopefully Quinn continues to close but he is still behind for now.)
    ME (Not much polling here so anything could happen as in the primaries.)
    VT (The primary may have been civil but overtime is hurting.)
    NM (Denish has work to do but all is not lost.)
    WI (Walker missteps mean I'm more bullish here than I was.)
    CA (Whitman barrage finally takes a toll in the polls. I still think Brown can turn it around.)

    Dem Lean
    CT (Malloy has the advantage but I wonder if Foley's money will yet tighten things up.)

    Rep Lean
    AZ (Brewer's debate mess gives Goddard a chance.)
    MI (Snyder has appeal to Dems but hopefully Bernero can yet catch fire.)
    PA (Probably ends up closer than the polls suggest but not much chance of an Onorato win.)
    TX (Polling seems to be moving this out of grasp which is a damn shame.)
    OH (Can't quite believe Kasich is doing this but believe we must.)

    Dem Favored
    CO (Governor Hickenlooper I presume!)
    HI (Abercrombie likely wins primary and then the general.)
    RI (Either Chafee wins or Caprio wins, neither is a Republican so we can safely count this as a Dem pickup.)

    Rep Favored
    SC (If any of this category tighten it will be here. Pushback in the base to Haley gives Sheheen an opening. Possibly.)
    OK (Askins may yet make this competitive but probably not enough.)
    IA (Ugly numbers for the incumbent means defeat.)
    NV (Rory needs to avoid a blowout to help his dad.)
    AL (Sparks is good but Bentley is better and this is Alabama in a heavily GOP year.)
    ID (Not as big a lead for the GOP as one would expect but it is still Idaho.)
    KS (Theoretically Holland may be able to exploit the state moderate/conservative split but I doubt he gets close.)
    SD (Daugaaurd is popular and in 2010 that is more than enough for a Republican in a red state.)
    TN (Haslam has some moderate credentials so could be worse I guess.)
    AK (Parnell should be safe but Berkowitz will make him work for it.)
    WY (No Freudenthal means no Dem governor.)
    UT (This is Utah.)

    Projection
    SENATE - GOP +6
    GOVERNORS - GOP +7

    Discuss :: (39 Comments)
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